Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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UlanBatori
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Dec 2016 07:50

In rough dolahs, 20 lac karod rupya is 3lac millions, or 300 billion? If that was 86 percent of Indian currency, Indian currency total was == 340billion dollars onlee? Is/was it true that total tangible wealth except never-sold real estate and wildlife, is at some point launched as currency?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Dec 2016 08:05

2 lac crore net benefit to GOI means USD 30B. Meaning 8-9 percent of total currency out there.
Stopping huge influx of Paki counterfeits was a plus (wonder if Paki 2000s are pouring in). Reversing the real estate and corporate stock holdings bought with Paki currency is going to be the huge hurdle, I suspect at least 1, maybe 2 orders of magnitude more BM/ counterfeit is sunk in these.

Think about it. $30B does not buy much at Dilli/Mumbai/Malloostan real estate prices. So there is an immense amount still buried in just real estate.

If I were rich in BM I would have converted much of it into halal corporate stocks via routes explained earlier (flexible value assets). How to track that down will be interesting to watch.

But deMo has hopefully taken a lot of liquidity out of BM power. Selling off RE means a fair amt of haircut, but can buy stocks cheap worldwide, so that reduces the haircut.

The ones who converted to Oiros are probably 50% screwed. Karma onlee.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dipanker » 28 Dec 2016 08:27

Nitesh wrote:Isn't the value of demonetized currency is more then 20 lakh crore?


It was supposed to be ~15.4 lakh crore.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dasari » 28 Dec 2016 08:36

Post Demo, if they don't pass law that any transaction > Rs X cannot be cash anymore and it is punishable with jail term, then Demo would be a meaningless excercise. SImilarly there has to be a law on how much cash one one hoard (obviously white). There was some hint that both are coming soon. I suspect PM is going to announce these on Jan 2nd.

As far as BM in real estate, it had to be huge. One estimate says that there are Rs 10000 crores black money transactions conducted each day. That is Rs 36 lakh crores per year. Even if the total currency in circulation is Rs 20 lakh crores, it is not enough to hoard the black money in notes. Therefore BM is getting converted into Real estate (plus gold and Havala) by at least Rs 16 lakh crores, actually lot more, every year.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby arshyam » 28 Dec 2016 09:02

Dasari wrote:On the other hand getting most of the money back may be a good thing as we have complete record of deposits.
S. Gurumurthy explained that very well in his series of talks and articles. Even if all the money comes back, it is a good thing, as the cash outside was not put to productive use. Sure, some of it was used in funding businesses, but that cash goes only so far. A bulk of the cash was also under pillows and mattresses, where they didn't serve any purpose.

Whereas, he states that money in banks have a multiplier effect (he called it the fractional reserve system), wherein bank deposits can be used by banks to lend and grow in value over time. He mentioned some numbers (in a few talks) where 96 lakh crore worth of economic activity was fueled by only 15-20 lakh crore of bank deposits (numbers are approximate from the top of my mind, but you get the idea). So a further 15 lakh crore of deposits brought in by DeMo can trigger that much more economic activity. The implication is that cash does not offer this much multiplier effect.

Having said that, the above won't win the elections. So I expect the govt to now offer some sops to the public as they have put up with difficulties over the past 50 days. Some IT reforms would do nicely. Not to mention your (and others') proposal to outlaw cash transactions beyond a limit. The key now is to ensure the avenues to generate black cash are curtailed, severely.

Dasari wrote:Had they not deposited, we would never know who those hoarders are. Interesting to hear what the govt has to say after they get the final counts.
Or their innovative methods to launder cash, that can now be shut down one by one.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby achoudhury » 28 Dec 2016 09:16

Some people have asked about the Less Cash Strategy of Modi Govt. See this video of Nandan Nilekani ( sadly it is on rndtv)


What NN explains is that there is three fold strategy.
1. People with Smart Phone and CC, DC , etc. ~abt 400 mil
2. People with feature phone -- ~ 500 mil
3. People with Aadhar enabled Bank account -- ~400 mil

Yes, at first entire cashless exercise looks very arbitrary but after this interview of NN clearly explains the strategy.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Dec 2016 09:21

Linking post from Dinesh S at the start of the deMo tamasha.

May be time to calibrate numbers against his predictions. I have to agree that a BM neta who buys a 50-lac flat for 2cr BM cash is going to be hurt a bit, but a middle-classer who buys a 10lac home paying out his entire cash stash of 10lac BM and getting a loan at 10% for the other 10 lac, is looking at bankruptcy and losing the home to the lender - who is probably a BM zamindar.

This was one of Dinesh's points. Time for sober discussion? The really big BM has so far escaped, buried in RE/stocks. Only liquidity for continued transactions may be affected. So "going ungli" may be the best long-term benefit, done in 3 months instead of the expected 15 years.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Dec 2016 09:27

Idea #6 in UBCNews' famous Dhobi-e-KAladhan Series:

What happens todin if my Evil 6th coujin thrice removed (E6C3R), goes into, say, IndusIndiots Bank (to take an example where there is no fear of IQ > cabbage level) with a big bag of 100-rupee notes and deposits it?

Say 5 lac at a time. OK, once he confirms what I know of the IQ level, 20 lac. Knowing my E6C3R, I can guarantee 400% that every note there is 400% genuine Indian, and 500% BM. Not a pennny of tax paid, of course, and all ill-gotten.

My point (yes I know, Suraj, petty stuff) is that only BannedNote deposits to banks come with True Confessions, Explanations etc. If one takes the trouble to change notes retail (I can give a very good route but it would damn me to 1000 rebirths in Pakistan or UP due to blasphemous nature) there is no danger at all.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Dec 2016 09:42

Speaking of routes, smart managers recognized it very early, but that window closed by say 10PM Nov. 8. Apparently, senior ppl of the Devaswom in Malloostan got on the phone and ordered temple treasurers to IMMEDIATELY inventory the 1000s and 500s in the offerings and in their desks/safes.Ignore the smaller denoms. And submit results no later than early morning. They were betting that this would keep the treasurers too angry or too busy to turn on the TV/radio and realize why.

But... they should have followed that with a tough demand for a team count of the smaller denoms and gold/jewelry offerings. Because if one undercounted those, one could exchange them for 1000s and 500s later to the more generous devotees at a tidy profit.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 28 Dec 2016 10:01

Dasari wrote:Post Demo, if they don't pass law that any transaction > Rs X cannot be cash anymore and it is punishable with jail term, then Demo would be a meaningless excercise. SImilarly there has to be a law on how much cash one one hoard (obviously white). There was some hint that both are coming soon. I suspect PM is going to announce these on Jan 2nd.

+1

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Marten » 28 Dec 2016 10:13

UlanBatori wrote:Speaking of routes, smart managers recognized it very early, but that window closed by say 10PM Nov. 8. Apparently, senior ppl of the Devaswom in Malloostan got on the phone and ordered temple treasurers to IMMEDIATELY inventory the 1000s and 500s in the offerings and in their desks/safes.Ignore the smaller denoms. And submit results no later than early morning. They were betting that this would keep the treasurers too angry or too busy to turn on the TV/radio and realize why.

But... they should have followed that with a tough demand for a team count of the smaller denoms and gold/jewelry offerings. Because if one undercounted those, one could exchange them for 1000s and 500s later to the more generous devotees at a tidy profit.

Two banks handle most (80-90%) of the cash from the largest three devasthanams. Dhanalakshmi has been under black knight attack for a while, but it is held together by pro-RSS investors and stock holders. I think you are about to mention the other in a following post so will await more insights into how this cash chain can be used to convert BM to WM. AFAIK, these tracks are very much covered - counting is done on camera, ledgers have to be manipulated at GM level (and upwards) for this to be done. Not impossible but very very difficult. All said, there are many many other banks from Malloostan who have been under the scanner for various other activities. Fed, CSB, UBI are all open doors to a certain community that can also claim access to Gold stores and plantations. Win win onlee for these folks.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Sachin » 28 Dec 2016 11:07

Situation at Bengaluru. Queues in ATMs have come down to drastic levels. And yes, some ATMs are still remaining shut. But even in ATMs which remain open queues are now less than 10. The panic situation seems to have certainly vanished. SHQs bank too is now operating at near normalcy levels. Deposits of Rs.500 & Rs.1000 are still coming in, but not in large numbers. I feel now the action scene has to move from banks to the offices of Enforcement Directorate, DRI, Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) etc.

Vineetmehta_del wrote:The IT guys are utilising these inputs for raids. Seems there is a clear strategy on what needs to be done and how. Also, I feel that this fight against such entities would continue for 1-2 years.

Which also means that the government can use some "shock & awe" raids if some other political issues come up. Keep all the data ready, but keep the option to strike open. For example, Com. Yechuri makes some bold statements; but the very next day raids happen at a few locations which are favourites of CPI(M).

Marten wrote:Dhanalakshmi has been under black knight attack for a while, but it is held together by pro-RSS investors and stock holders.

Dhanalakshmi also gets the contract for counting and accounting donations received at Sabari Mala. Infact that contract is like a monopoly for them. And one more sleazy thing which Devaswom at Chottanikkara temple did was to sell some specific type of gold lockets at very hefty prices. The gold in these "gold lockets" is close to nothing, but two officials allowed them to be purchased at very high costs (which off course was paid in Rs.500 & Rs.1000 notes). But they too were caught in a very short time (a day or max two) and the sales was stopped.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby habal » 28 Dec 2016 11:14

I am seeing sudden deluge of bmw's in my small town, yesterday saw a jaguar f-pace (for regn) suv at a small restaurant. Is it holiday weekend causing influx from ITville for holidays or are these new cars bought with newly demonitised currency deposits in banks or is it year end discounts, I didn't get enough time to observe. Makes sense for bm hoarders to blow up deposits in luxury cars before IT munnas can ask for source of deposits.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby jamwal » 28 Dec 2016 11:49

http://www.jammulinksnews.com/newsdetai ... ites_to_PM

Woman finds Rs 100 crore in Jan-Dhan account, writes to PM


Shocked to find nearly Rs 100 crore in her Jan-Dhan account in a Meerut branch of a state-run bank, a woman on Monday sought the PMO's intervention after the bank officials did not attend to her complaint and kept asking her to come some other time. In the complaint to the PMO, sent by her husband Ziledar Singh, Sheetal Yadav said she maintained a Jan-Dhan account in Sharda road branch of the State Bank of India (SBI). On December 18, she went to draw money from the ATM of ICICI bank near their house and was shocked to see that her account stood at Rs 99,99,99,394.Unable to believe it, she said she asked the person standing next to her in the queue to check it and he confirmed the same amount. She went to another ATM of YES bank nearby and found the same balance. She continued to visit her bank for two days but the staff did not attend to her complaint and asked her to come after a day when the branch manager would assist her to rectify the matter. When she again went to the bank, she was sent back under another pretext.


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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 28 Dec 2016 11:51

Blowing up BM on high priced luxury item, especially one that can be counted and traced, is the surest way of attracting GOI's attention even when it is purchased in a companies name and claimed as expense of doing business.

If such a company is paying no tax or is paying below the minimum threshold of 5-6% of turnover, buying a BMW/Jag is the surest red flag.

Till GOI wasn't paying attention or the data was in the hands of IT officers it was possible to get away by paying a bribe. What happens when the data is with the PMO and IT officer cannot close the case for a bribe?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 28 Dec 2016 12:07

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... i-4448323/
Money laundering case: ED arrests Kotak bank manager in Delhi

ED has arrested a manager of a Kotak Bank branch here in connection with its money laundering probe in a criminal case of detection of nine alleged fake accounts with deposits worth Rs 34 crore post demonetisation.

<snip>

Police had also arrested two persons last week for allegedly depositing black money worth Rs 34 crore in nine fake accounts being operated in the Naya Bazar branch of the said bank here.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 28 Dec 2016 12:10

Pappu demanding his money back ... Bappu also demanding dolenomics

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-sc ... di-2287154
Scrap cash withdrawal limit, reveal how much black money recovered post demonetization: Rahul to Modi

Here are the demands made by Rahul Gandhi

# Modi has performed demonetization yagna for 50 families. Many people have suffered and for this loss, government should give compensation.

# Modi should reveal how much black money recovered post November 8, how much economic loss nation suffered and how many people lost their lives.

# Government should come out with list of those who deposited more than Rs 25 lakh in their accounts before demonetization.

# Restrictions on withdrawals must be lifted now. It is taking away the financial independence of the people.

# PM must explain how he will he compensate farmers who are affected the most by demonetization.

# Farmers have been hit the most, PM should waive off their loans and give bonus at 20% MSP.

# A sum of Rs 25,000 should be deposited in the account of every woman of a BPL family that has suffered post demonetization.

# Double MNREGA wages and Income Tax and Sales Tax rebate for small businessmen and shopkeepers.

On a close look, seems most of the dolenomics is aimed at UP/Punjab elections.
Last edited by pankajs on 28 Dec 2016 12:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby jamwal » 28 Dec 2016 12:13

habal wrote:I am seeing sudden deluge of bmw's in my small town, yesterday saw a jaguar f-pace (for regn) suv at a small restaurant. Is it holiday weekend causing influx from ITville for holidays or are these new cars bought with newly demonitised currency deposits in banks or is it year end discounts, I didn't get enough time to observe. Makes sense for bm hoarders to blow up deposits in luxury cars before IT munnas can ask for source of deposits.


Doesn't seem to be a very bright idea.
BTW, is there any report about fall or rise in sale of luxury items after demonetization ?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Sachin » 28 Dec 2016 12:20

habal wrote:I am seeing sudden deluge of bmw's in my small town, yesterday saw a jaguar f-pace (for regn) suv at a small restaurant.

Demonetisation: Vehicle transactions to come under scanner....
Looks like the government is aware of such a possibility. And buying a car again leaves a trail of records, so there would be again chinks in the links. The vehicle dealers would have to explain how the money was taken in, and off course Registration details would be able to clearly tell who made the vehicle purchase. How ever sale of 2nd hand cars may be slightly dicey to crack. As many people generally do not/take a long time to actually make changes in the registration records. And 2nd hand car business may also not be very organised, and the "used car show rooms" may be the only exception.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Pratyush » 28 Dec 2016 12:27

Even in the second hand sale the RC will need to be endorsed along with a transfer of insurance. So a sufficient paper trail exists. All it requires is strengthening of enforcement mechanism.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby rahulm » 28 Dec 2016 13:27

95% the black money was in small holdings held by 99% of the people, with 1% of "biggies" holding large amounts totalling 5%?


It might very well turn out to be the case that most (>50%) of the BM is held by majority (>50%) of the people or Mr Pareto could be right.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby rahulm » 28 Dec 2016 13:27

Duplicate

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby rahulm » 28 Dec 2016 13:42

Travelled through and spent decent time in wardha, Pulgaon, yavatmal, wani, shirpur, ghuggus and nagpur. Bought stuff in each of these places. No visible panic or stress. Shirpur is a smallish village.

Ghuggus is an eminently forgettable town. It's visibility is due to it being in WCL's opencast territory. The town is covered in fine black dust as beaten up multi axle trucks, some looking like defeated Transformers groan through the town 24/7 labouriously carting precious coal to,power our thermal power stations. I say it's hell. But, all BAU, no panic.

Multiple bank ATMs in Yavatmal had no queues.

Perceptible increase in traders sporting VISA or payTM a signs in Pune's conservative peths.

No one I talked to,has heard about UPI the Betamax of payments while the VHS ewallets spread their tentacles.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Sicanta » 28 Dec 2016 13:59

rahulm wrote:No one I talked to,has heard about UPI the Betamax of payments while the VHS ewallets spread their tentacles.


Each bank is coming up with multiple options, instead of concentrating on select options. That news article about a single upi app for all psb's seems to be a good idea now.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby rahulm » 28 Dec 2016 14:17

From wani to Pulgaon took the wani yavatmal highway(if it can be called that) to link with Hyderabad pandharkavada yavatmal highway.

Passed through a ghat and saw adivasi villagers. Came as a shock to me to see the state of the villages and villagers. Stuck firmly in a bygone era. Ancient with faeces and defeacation on both sides of the rut ridden highway. All human, both male and female.

Villages like Jira and Meena and many others. If I had taken a pic, converted to sepia with torn corners and posted on BRF, I think many would say it's psy-ops created by Robert Clive or his ilk. For the rest of th journey, I wondered how quickly we can include this section in UPI and Swaach Bharat.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Sachin » 28 Dec 2016 14:23

As of today noon...
  • Post March, jail term also likely for possessing banned notes
  • ED arrests bank manager in Lodha case
  • Congress raises 5 questions on demonetisation
    • How much black money has been unearthed since November 8, 2016?
    • What is the economic loss to the nation? How many jobs and livelihoods have been lost since the announcement?
    • How many lives have been lost due to demonetisation? Why has the government not paid any compensation to the families of the deceased?
    • What was the process of consultation and preparedness followed prior to the implementation? Why were experts, economists or the RBI not consulted prior to the announcement?
    • Will the government place the names of all persons and entities that deposited Rs. 25 lakh or more in bank accounts in the six months preceeding November 8?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Pratyush » 28 Dec 2016 15:29

Sachin wrote:As of today noon...
  • Post March, jail term also likely for possessing banned notes
  • ED arrests bank manager in Lodha case
  • Congress raises 5 questions on demonetisation
    • How much black money has been unearthed since November 8, 2016?
    • What is the economic loss to the nation? How many jobs and livelihoods have been lost since the announcement?
    • How many lives have been lost due to demonetisation? Why has the government not paid any compensation to the families of the deceased?
    • What was the process of consultation and preparedness followed prior to the implementation? Why were experts, economists or the RBI not consulted prior to the announcement?
    • Will the government place the names of all persons and entities that deposited Rs. 25 lakh or more in bank accounts in the six months preceeding November 8?



Just goes to show that simply because a question can be asked, dosenot make it a good one.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Sicanta » 28 Dec 2016 16:04

UPI to be available offline: Govt to make digital payments user-friendly

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 457_1.html

With emphasis on digital payments, the Centre plans to introduce a newer version of United Payment Interface (UPI) and the Unstructured Supplementary Service Data (USSD) that will be consumer friendly and help make digital transaction even without internet connection.

According to a report published in The Economics Times, in a week's time, a easier-to-use application for UPI will be launched. UPI, launched in August, has been defeated by other small players because of its lack of common application. The new version of National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI)'s UPI, however, will not replace the existing ones.

Features that are included in the upgraded UPI are:

Through a single app, users will be able to download to transact across multiple banks

The upgraded version of USSD platform will enable banking through feature phones

The upgraded version of UPI will have basic features such as ability to send or receive money, linking of accounts, saving profile of the user, changing the language, recording beneficiary details and providing balance enquiry

Current issues in UPI

ALSO READ: What ails govt's Unified Payments Interface?

There could be four parties in a UPI transaction: Two app developers (sender’s and receiver’s), the bank from which money is sent and the receiving bank. In UPI, a person can use any bank’s app without being its customer and add another bank’s account to it. But, if a transaction fails and the funds don’t return to the sender’s account, he has no option but to approach his bank to resolve the problem.

Bankers say at present there’s no automatic reversal of money. “National Payments Corporation of India’s (NPCI) officials do help to resolve such problems but the volume of transactions is quite low. It will be difficult for banks, as well as NPCI, to handle grievances when the volumes are in millions,” says a banker. And, the customer will need to proactively follow up with banks.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Nitesh » 28 Dec 2016 16:05

Dipanker wrote:
Nitesh wrote:Isn't the value of demonetized currency is more then 20 lakh crore?


It was supposed to be ~15.4 lakh crore.


Dipankar saar: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ind ... 071285.cms

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A Deshmukh » 28 Dec 2016 16:08

rahulm wrote:From wani to Pulgaon took the wani yavatmal highway(if it can be called that) to link with Hyderabad pandharkavada yavatmal highway.

Have traveled on this route very often. Have been disappointed that Swach Bharat has not reached here. Open defecation is still prevalent.

Pandharkavda to AP/TS border highway is in a mess for years.
Inside AP/TS the NH7 is superb 100+kmph. and once you cross the border to MH it is < 10 kmph. you have to find the road between crater sized potholes. On the top of this you have to pay toll !! And this is Gadkari territory.
I understand this section (~30km) of "highway" is under litigation.

Sorry OT.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby JohnTitor » 28 Dec 2016 16:44

Dasari wrote:Post Demo, if they don't pass law that any transaction > Rs X cannot be cash anymore and it is punishable with jail term, then Demo would be a meaningless excercise. SImilarly there has to be a law on how much cash one one hoard (obviously white). There was some hint that both are coming soon. I suspect PM is going to announce these on Jan 2nd.

You are right in advocating the push for using e-currency.

However, the counter argument you will get is "in cash I can pay for something and pay the exact value but card/e-wallets will charge be x% and therefore I am left worse off, I would prefer to use cash". The way to counter this is to remove high denomination notes altogether while pushing for cashless transactions simultaneously. Making large value transactions in 50r notes is cumbersome, helping digital transactions more attractive. But the government will (at least for some time) need to subsidise cashless transactions to help it spread. It is heartening to see even veg vendors use things like paytm etc .. but it is vital that the government ensure that they are not made worse off in this process.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 28 Dec 2016 18:05

habal wrote:I am seeing sudden deluge of bmw's in my small town, yesterday saw a jaguar f-pace (for regn) suv at a small restaurant. Is it holiday weekend causing influx from ITville for holidays or are these new cars bought with newly demonitised currency deposits in banks or is it year end discounts, I didn't get enough time to observe. Makes sense for bm hoarders to blow up deposits in luxury cars before IT munnas can ask for source of deposits.


If I went to the bank to get 100 rupees from my JanDhan acct, and the balance showed 99,99,99,99,99,354.99, I too would head to the nearest Acura NX store and drive out in one of those buggies. What the heck! If the CBI repossesses it before I manage to crash it, that's just Fate.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dipanker » 28 Dec 2016 18:23

Nitesh wrote:
Dipanker wrote:
It was supposed to be ~15.4 lakh crore.


Dipankar saar: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ind ... 071285.cms


This does not appear right, Look at this:

SBI noted that going by data as on 9 November, the amount of high currency denomination notes was Rs 15.44 lakh crore (excluding cash in the banks), an increase of Rs 1.26 lakh crore compared to the March figure.

First Post Link

As per latest figures 14 lakh crore have already come back.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Nitesh » 28 Dec 2016 18:38

Dipanker wrote:
This does not appear right, Look at this:

SBI noted that going by data as on 9 November, the amount of high currency denomination notes was Rs 15.44 lakh crore (excluding cash in the banks), an increase of Rs 1.26 lakh crore compared to the March figure.

First Post Link

As per latest figures 14 lakh crore have already come back.

Ok, seems misinformation being spread

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby saumitra_j » 28 Dec 2016 19:14

Dipanker wrote:


This does not appear right, Look at this:

SBI noted that going by data as on 9 November, the amount of high currency denomination notes was Rs 15.44 lakh crore (excluding cash in the banks), an increase of Rs 1.26 lakh crore compared to the March figure.

First Post Link

As per latest figures 14 lakh crore have already come back.


Please check this spreadsheet from RBI: . Let me give a screenshot of the spreadsheet: some figures from the spreadsheet:




Reserve Money 21807.4 (March 31st) 22545.7 (Nov 4)

Components (i+ii+iii)
i) Currency in Circulation 16634.6 17974.6

ii) Bankers' Deposits with RBI 5018.3 4365.6

iii)`Other' Deposits with RBI 154.5 205.5



From this, my understanding is that total currency in circulation was about 17974 crores as of November 4, so 85% of it comes to about 15278 crores (assuming 85% of currency is SBN aka notes of 500 & 1000). This matches with SBI figures to be honest unless the interpretation of the spreadsheet is wrong or he figure of 85% is not accurate.
Last edited by saumitra_j on 28 Dec 2016 19:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dipanker » 28 Dec 2016 19:30

saumitra_j wrote:
Dipanker wrote:
This does not appear right, Look at this:


First Post Link

As per latest figures 14 lakh crore have already come back.


Please check this spreadsheet from RBI: . Let me give a screenshot of the spreadsheet: some figures from the spreadsheet:




Reserve Money 21807.4 (March 31st) 22545.7 (Nov 4)

Components (i+ii+iii)
i) Currency in Circulation 16634.6 17974.6

ii) Bankers' Deposits with RBI 5018.3 4365.6

iii)`Other' Deposits with RBI 154.5 205.5



From this, my understanding is that total currency in circulation was about 17974 crores as of November 4, so 85% of it comes to about 15278 crores (assuming 95% of currency is SBN aka notes of 500 & 1000). This matches with SBI figures to be honest unless the interpretation of the spreadsheet is wrong or he figure of 85% is not accurate.



I was not contesting the SBI numbers, I was just pointing out that the Rs 20 lakh crore number given by some RTI activist in the EconTimes "does not appear right" and the correct number was ~ Rs 15.4 lakh crore.
Last edited by Dipanker on 28 Dec 2016 19:34, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Subdas » 28 Dec 2016 19:31

Spoke to my vegetable merchant in Kolkata who buys from veg whole sale market. He was saying that trade continues to be in cash only but there is no cash crunch. All is well and things have improved. He does not feel that whole sale perishable market will go cash less any time soon. BTW, there are now 2 small medical stores in my corner who now has POS. Merchants that do not have POS are now offering a 2k credit line so that u can keep buying till u hit 2k and pay it with a 2k note which is now ample in ATMs. So small business in Didi land are adopting fast to this change!

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby rahulm » 28 Dec 2016 19:59

A single UPI app unifying all banks will solve the existing patchwork. Uptake would be helped if the app is available in all gazetted Indian languages. I feel that Aadhar biometric authentication based payments is the way to go. Takes care of the angootha chaap types. Myabe, build Aadhar authentication into the new revised UPI app.

Is USSD multi lingual?

Mumbai and Pune soak up most of MH funding. Vidharbha in general and Nagpur in particular has always been a neglected surrogate. However, Nagpur getting the metro before Pune, hopefully, is a sign of receiving adequate attention. MIHAN If it comes to fruition will also help.

One only has to go to Chandrapur and Gadchiroli areas to see backwardness and neglect. It's quite depressing. Sorry for OT.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby SRoy » 28 Dec 2016 20:09

sdas1645 wrote:Spoke to my vegetable merchant in Kolkata who buys from veg whole sale market. He was saying that trade continues to be in cash only but there is no cash crunch. All is well and things have improved. He does not feel that whole sale perishable market will go cash less any time soon. BTW, there are now 2 small medical stores in my corner who now has POS. Merchants that do not have POS are now offering a 2k credit line so that u can keep buying till u hit 2k and pay it with a 2k note which is now ample in ATMs. So small business in Didi land are adopting fast to this change!

Means, no matter the amount of pressure we will not go cashless, because then we will come under tax net.

Please understand, ALL IS NOT WELL. Thieving merchant class has gone back to what they do best ... Hide or totally suppress income and evade all taxes.


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