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Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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shiv
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 08 Feb 2017 09:23

TKiran wrote:
shiv wrote:His warnings on this subject in his parliament speech were dire - I watch the entire 90 minutes. He sounds like a man who does not give a damn about re election as long as he can kick the corrupt.


Shiv Sir, NM is confident, but that doesn't mean he is not corrupted by power. Year after year he is spending more and more, just to make sure that he gets back to power.

Of course - his confidence may be posturing, but let me predict the worst nightmares of those who oppose him - that is - the idea that he could get re elected even as he trolls his opponents saying that he does not hanker for power. What could be a bigger insult to them?

No idea is perfect. No idea will have everybody's support but as long as Modi's ideas sound like they are good to most people everyone else will end up looking stupid unless they change. Criticism of Modi is nothing new. Everyone has done it forever. If. despite all this criticism he stays in power - it is the critics who need a change of plan. If he goes out of power no one wil discuss all this again, except to criticize Modi.

Demonetization has taught me that there are more people like me than I had imagined and that I belong to the bottom 98% and not the top 2%. And when I look back at those 6 weeks - I find that demonetization did not affect me much. It did not affect most people around me much. For 4 weeks or so things were quiet. Now it is business as usual in every sense of the word.

Now if all the black money dealers are finding that it is "business as usual" what is there for them to complain? If they are complaining about a stash of cash they lost, or retained with difficulty - they deserve all the pain they felt. If they are now busy making money again - they should stop complaining and get on with moneymaking. Or are they being hampered in some way from making more money in black? if they are being hampered - it means that demonetization and its after effects are still haunting them.

Either way no skin off my nose. I had no power to stop black money before demonetization. I still have no power to do that. I only "feel" that I helped cause the corrupt some pain by patiently supporting demonetization. It is sensation, a perception - like a night of sex - a happy memory. If people curse the fact that I had fun or curse the person who was the cause of my fun - it makes no difference to me.

shiv
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 08 Feb 2017 09:36

I have seen people speculating in the media about demonetization in other countries and that it requires guts. "Guts" only gives credit to the leader and no credit to the people. Venezuela's demonetization move crashed to the ground. So why did it go off so smoothly in India? It certainly was not Modi's guts. It was the widespread acceptance among the people of india (true or false) that a large number of people are keeping hoards of cash made from bribes and kickbacks and that some move must be taken to make them feel pain. The fact that many did feel pain was an obvious "in your face" proof that the move did affect the very people over which the common Indian had no power.

If Modi must get credit at all it is in the fact that he read the sentiment of the people right - his political acumen was perfect to take a gamble that no one else has taken and to pull it off. People do this all the time. Bush started a war in Iraq claiming that Iraq had nukes. The sentiment of his people helped him prosecute that war, right ir wrong. The after effects of that war have to be dealt with by the people who supported him and subsequent presidents. The after effects of demonetization will be borne by the people who support Modi. If they feel good - he will stay in power. If not he is out.

Suraj
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 08 Feb 2017 09:44

Every large fish hedges their bets when it comes to political donations. Even the current POTUS historically contributed more to the opposition party as a businessman.

TKiran
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby TKiran » 08 Feb 2017 09:54

shiv wrote:Of course - his confidence may be posturing, but let me predict the worst nightmares of those who oppose him - that is - the idea that he could get re elected even as he trolls his opponents saying that he does not hanker for power. What could be a bigger insult to them?

No idea is perfect. No idea will have everybody's support but as long as Modi's ideas sound like they are good to most people everyone else will end up looking stupid unless they change. Criticism of Modi is nothing new. Everyone has done it forever. If. despite all this criticism he stays in power - it is the critics who need a change of plan. If he goes out of power no one wil discuss all this again, except to criticize Modi.


My worry is that the people sense the innermost feelings of their leader. ie people sense if NM is telling the truth or not, and subconsciously evaluate his actions and words if they are matching. If they are not matching, they would feel betrayed and look for an alternative. But people are also emotional and some times so illogical they elect wrong leaders only because they felt betrayed by the current leader just like in Bonga or in Bihar.

I still dont see an alternate to NM, he has been the best amongst the lot in the race. I only pray that he puts his priorities right, he needs good advisors, and more importantly an ability to separate the Milk and Water like a swan does. May be he needs to spend more time with the RSS elders, many stalwarts who can advise him better. Afterall a nation is as good as its leader.

Suraj
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 08 Feb 2017 10:10

TKiran, what gives you the right to speak for 'people' though ? Why not just state your point of view without taking up unofficial spokesman role ?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Gus » 08 Feb 2017 10:27

It's a month plus and people have already moved on, on topics to talk about. While it seemed a huge deal during the 6 weeks...It will be almost forgotten in the next few months. It is all advantage modi as he will have the money to run his schemes and only talk about the positives. The only ones who will remember the pain and carry a grudge are the ones who lost significant money.

TKiran
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby TKiran » 08 Feb 2017 11:11

Suraj wrote:TKiran, what gives you the right to speak for 'people' though ? Why not just state your point of view without taking up unofficial spokesman role ?


Suraj San, I was only giving my opinion, the word "people " I used doesn't make me a spokesperson for "people".

I have a different opinion than shiv sir, and I told that, don't read anything more to it, I also disagree with Gus ji that those that have different opinion to demonetization are all negatively affected.

habal
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby habal » 08 Feb 2017 11:32

TKiran wrote:NM is confident, but that doesn't mean he is not corrupted by power. Year after year he is spending more and more, just to make sure that he gets back to power. He has not taken any steps to boldly reform the structural weakness in economy, nor is he able to articulate any flexing of muscle militarily, which is the need of the hour. Just watching his actions which are exactly opposite to what he says would clearly indicate that he got corrupted with power.

Nothing wrong with it per se. Certainly better than the previous 10years, but not as nationalistic as PVNR or IG. Certain events in the recent past have boosted his confidence, actually he is not able to see through the haze.

With the kind of mandate he got from the people, by this time he should have made military inroads into PoK by this time. But he is sticking on to his kursee. He doesn't know rajadharma. Watch the movie "gautamiputra" Shatakarni, you will get the exact point I am trying to emphasize.


to admit the truth, I have been thinking along these lines. and pondering over this turned my thoughts to the 'dichotomy of leadership', a leader is someone who must think all by himself, he can seek advice but the risk is all his and he takes all the blame, the rewards he can easily share. This also comes with a sense of power over people but he himself must not get egoistic. This is the real challenge of a leader. If tomorrow I am made a leader, my main challenge will not be my enemies but fighting my own ego. This ego comes from having power over people and controlling their destinies. It is very easy to get flown away in this strong current of ego. After this challenge comes another. On what to prioritize. Should the first priority be to heed to camp followers and deliver their enemies and their wealth & properties to the camp followers or should a leader serve all citizens. Both the philosophies have merits and demerits.

Modi presents such an interesting and public exhibition of this phenomenon that it fascinated me. Here is a leader who was a CM for 12 years and knows how to control his emotions. A lot of doubts became clear when I saw Modi on Republic Day, and he did present a lonely figure. Modi reminded me of someone who has big dreams but thinks and behaves as a common individual. In this particular instance he cannot mask his emotions, maybe he was also slightly overwhelmed with the occassion, and was fighting his demons in public view when he knows that he has to fight a lonely battle, but knows not whom to trust in his core. He is not able to reconcile these two philosophies in the national context. When he was in gujarat, he was more or less sheltered because gujaratis understood his idiosyncracies and accepted him without conditions. In national politics, he does not find such unconditional understanding. He thus looked isolated, isolationist. He didn't mingle with his colleagues, and made no effort to make small talk with them or chit chat. There was no spirit of bonhomie there and it seemed he wanted to grab all limelight. He also puckered his lips in a certain fashion, which people do when they feel unloved and not in a mood to trust those around them. Usually politicians have very distinct body language, they always conceal their emotions. This was the firs time a politician was revealing his. It was also similar to how a common man (or internet hindu) would react when put into position of power and he is not able to trust the seasoned politicians or careerist champions around him.

the reason why people suspect non-economic objectives of demonitisation is primarily due to:

1. lack of prior preparation in banking circles. No printing extra R10, 20, 50 or R100 notes to cover deficit.
2. Restraining card companies. When the card companies had huge volume of transactions, they cannot charge 1% per transaction like in old days. Their charges should have been cut down to a flat R100/1000 transactions or like.
3. Unstable UPI or USSD apps were launched. Development of these apps could have been given to Infosys or TCS.
4. Large deposits in banks would crash interest rates. Where will senior citizens, pensioners invest. Or simply put, how will they live ?
5. Why was discretionary powers vested in bureaucracy like IT and VAT not curtailed by making rules more transparent. How & why where they given a free run.

Out of these points, it is 5 that really hits the core of demonitisation and hints that demonitisation was not intended to make 'minimum government maximum governance' & cashless digital economy but actually to clip the wings of BSP & SP. For this the entire country had to stand by and pay with inconvenience and uncertainty. A lot of vulnerable people lost jobs, a ton of women who had saved small amounts for rainy days had to confess that they had savings inside some old unused vessels or books etc. A small but significant number of 'heads just above water' businesses folded up. A lot of people had to spend hours in line. All this so that BSP and SP could be defeated in polls. Because on the ground no party has suffered from demonitisation as much as BSP. Nobody gained as much as card companies, mobile wallets. A few vulnerable people here & there gone, but that is just collateral damage.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby nirav » 08 Feb 2017 17:43

If after 176 pages of discussion some people still think that DeMo was aimed at UP elections and "clipping wings" of BSP,SP it only lays bare their lack of character and exposes their lack of depth of thinking.

Putting up facts and figures is futile to pricks who think not paying taxes and having and using black money is a good thing.

The moderators have given an unusually long rope to a few guys in here who whip up CTs just like that and speak rubbish.I can understand mod latitude considering the sensitive nature of the DeMo exercise but I think now's the time to call out BS.

arshyam
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby arshyam » 08 Feb 2017 18:40

^^ Perhaps time to close this thread, unless new issues emerge?

Here's Jaggi's take, similar to the TN Ninan op-ed posted earlier: https://swarajyamag.com/economy/demo-cr ... oney-catch

Dipanker
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dipanker » 08 Feb 2017 19:43

IMO closing the thread at this juncture will be premature. The net effect of DeMo will itself take at least a year to play out completely or even longer. The thread should be kept open at least till then.

Also people need to show more civility and tolerance towards other poster's point of view than start name calling which not only goes against the norms of the forum but against our broader Indian civilizational values.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby chetak » 08 Feb 2017 19:52

habal wrote:
TKiran wrote:NM is confident, but that doesn't mean he is not corrupted by power. Year after year he is spending more and more, just to make sure that he gets back to power. He has not taken any steps to boldly reform the structural weakness in economy, nor is he able to articulate any flexing of muscle militarily, which is the need of the hour. Just watching his actions which are exactly opposite to what he says would clearly indicate that he got corrupted with power.

Nothing wrong with it per se. Certainly better than the previous 10years, but not as nationalistic as PVNR or IG. Certain events in the recent past have boosted his confidence, actually he is not able to see through the haze.

With the kind of mandate he got from the people, by this time he should have made military inroads into PoK by this time. But he is sticking on to his kursee. He doesn't know rajadharma. Watch the movie "gautamiputra" Shatakarni, you will get the exact point I am trying to emphasize.


to admit the truth, I have been thinking along these lines. and pondering over this turned my thoughts to the 'dichotomy of leadership', a leader is someone who must think all by himself, he can seek advice but the risk is all his and he takes all the blame, the rewards he can easily share. This also comes with a sense of power over people but he himself must not get egoistic. This is the real challenge of a leader. If tomorrow I am made a leader, my main challenge will not be my enemies but fighting my own ego. This ego comes from having power over people and controlling their destinies. It is very easy to get flown away in this strong current of ego. After this challenge comes another. On what to prioritize. Should the first priority be to heed to camp followers and deliver their enemies and their wealth & properties to the camp followers or should a leader serve all citizens. Both the philosophies have merits and demerits.

Modi presents such an interesting and public exhibition of this phenomenon that it fascinated me. Here is a leader who was a CM for 12 years and knows how to control his emotions. A lot of doubts became clear when I saw Modi on Republic Day, and he did present a lonely figure. Modi reminded me of someone who has big dreams but thinks and behaves as a common individual. In this particular instance he cannot mask his emotions, maybe he was also slightly overwhelmed with the occassion, and was fighting his demons in public view when he knows that he has to fight a lonely battle, but knows not whom to trust in his core. He is not able to reconcile these two philosophies in the national context. When he was in gujarat, he was more or less sheltered because gujaratis understood his idiosyncracies and accepted him without conditions. In national politics, he does not find such unconditional understanding. He thus looked isolated, isolationist. He didn't mingle with his colleagues, and made no effort to make small talk with them or chit chat. There was no spirit of bonhomie there and it seemed he wanted to grab all limelight. He also puckered his lips in a certain fashion, which people do when they feel unloved and not in a mood to trust those around them. Usually politicians have very distinct body language, they always conceal their emotions. This was the firs time a politician was revealing his. It was also similar to how a common man (or internet hindu) would react when put into position of power and he is not able to trust the seasoned politicians or careerist champions around him.

the reason why people suspect non-economic objectives of demonitisation is primarily due to:

1. lack of prior preparation in banking circles. No printing extra R10, 20, 50 or R100 notes to cover deficit.
2. Restraining card companies. When the card companies had huge volume of transactions, they cannot charge 1% per transaction like in old days. Their charges should have been cut down to a flat R100/1000 transactions or like.
3. Unstable UPI or USSD apps were launched. Development of these apps could have been given to Infosys or TCS.
4. Large deposits in banks would crash interest rates. Where will senior citizens, pensioners invest. Or simply put, how will they live ?
5. Why was discretionary powers vested in bureaucracy like IT and VAT not curtailed by making rules more transparent. How & why where they given a free run.

Out of these points, it is 5 that really hits the core of demonitisation and hints that demonitisation was not intended to make 'minimum government maximum governance' & cashless digital economy but actually to clip the wings of BSP & SP. For this the entire country had to stand by and pay with inconvenience and uncertainty. A lot of vulnerable people lost jobs, a ton of women who had saved small amounts for rainy days had to confess that they had savings inside some old unused vessels or books etc. A small but significant number of 'heads just above water' businesses folded up. A lot of people had to spend hours in line. All this so that BSP and SP could be defeated in polls. Because on the ground no party has suffered from demonetisation as much as BSP. Nobody gained as much as card companies, mobile wallets. A few vulnerable people here & there gone, but that is just collateral damage.


@TKiran ji,

What did the congis do after sixty odd years of power?? Conquered POK?? How many times?? Brought about structural and fundamental changes?? where?? and How many times?? Those creeps have buggered us over repeatedly and yet you kept very quiet when an eyetalian was ruling?? Why?? because you valued your skin??

Modi is spending more money ?? where?? Has he waived off any loans, or what?? You are just blowing hot air.

You do not seem to have grasped the security environment around India and the devious play of various international powers and the scramble for political and economic advantage. Only personal comfort seems important to you??

So who do you want Modi to attack?? What happens when the economy and our international standing tanks and WHAT if we LOSE this war?? Are you prepared for the consequences or will you just whine again?? Will you join the IA?? no?? Why not??

What exactly did IG do?? She merely opened another front for unchecked muslim infiltration. Anything else?? She too buggered us over and repeatedly too. It was Sam Maneckshaw who won the war along with the IA and other forces, not the great IG who merely yelled "garibi hatao" from every forum she ever clambered on to and has garibi been hataoed??

BTW, if Sam hadn't had the big balls to defy the PM and attack when he wanted and not when she (IG) wanted, you could be speaking bangladeshi today having, in the meanwhile, parted with some significant parts of your anatomy.

and yet this foolish woman gave away 93K paki POWs without getting anything in return and all those poor IA soldiers died in vain so IG could parade her worthless ego?? Why were you quiet then?? and even in death she massacred thousands of sikhs as a going away present and yet again you were very quiet??

PVNR did something for sure. Modi will do more. even with folks like you causing a drag on the system in the name of FOS and FOE, all the while sitting safely in your homes and counting your money, no??

@habal ji

You seem to be living in a utopian world, talking about the "dichotomy of leadership" and Modi is barely halfway into his term. He has so far delivered more that any PM of India has delivered at this stage, and you are not happy?? Good for you because you seem to be in the honorable company of commie and naxal frauds like susukumar and khujliwal.

your criticism seems rather unfair and biased. Merely a contrarian view where none is actually called for.

Modi is very wary of scandal and scams marring and diverting his efforts of governance and that is why he keeps most people at a distance. He is like Arjun who sees only the eye of the fish, while the rest of the pack saw everything else but the eye. He is focussed, driven, committed and sincere.

He is also the smartest politician in India today, maybe by far in her history so far. No competition at all. A towering giant in the company of pygmies.

At the republic day, Modi was the PM in the presence of the chief guest, a crown prince of a state important to India and her interests. Did you expect him to go back slapping his bum chums in public?? What about the dignity of the occasion and the dignity of the Head of Government?? Did the president do what you accuse Modi of not doing?? did the crown prince do it?? Did you consider that something in the arrangements may have displeased Modi that morning, irritating him??

How do you know that Modi does not take a break by playing marbles with gadkari and parikkar at 7RCR?? Just because you have seen or not seen means nothing.

Modi knows that the world is watching him and recording him too for analysis of content and body language just like you seem to have done. Is he so FOOLISH as to display anything?? He conducts international discussions while not being aware of body language?? Come on, get real.

Your points, serials 1 through 5 have been rehashed from some commie rags and written by doom and gloom "journalists" and scam artists who were totally flummoxed that a chaiwallah caught them all off guard. There is simply no truth to any of it.

in the bank queues, I mostly saw minorities mouthing off. Just like you and Tkiranji, they had to say something, when they actually did have nothing to say.

why so much of handardi for the totally corrupt SP and the BSP?? Someone you know is standing for elections in UP and is sure shot going to lose?? mayawati and her lies about "donations" to account for her ill-gotten wealth is OK for you?? This was a "wink wink nudge nudge" explanation accepted by all but Modi who clamped down and she and her family were publicly caught with hundreds of crores of ill-gotten bribe money and you have humdardi for her?? Come on, and your famous body language analysis did not tell you anything at all about bhenji and her crores worth of diamonds that she wears daily?? Selective aren't you??

BTW, from where exactly did the SP and the BSP get their money from?? from illegal sources and bribe money, no??

I buy fresh vegetables from street vendors known to me for years. They did not complain of loss of a job because many of their customers paid in advance and without keeping account knowing that they would not be cheated by these honest and simple folk. I also buy from small kirana stores who stock exactly the kind of things that I need and buy. They too willingly extended credit but many customers simply paid in advance.

Yes undoubtedly, some folks did have a hiatus in their work and some others went back to their village to be employed in the MNREGA. No one died or killed him/herself because of no jobs or lost jobs, they simply "managed" like we all did. People routinely die in train stations, bus stations, airplanes, buses, and a whole lot of other queues. Most of this is traced back to some pre-existing medical condition that got aggravated by stress. No one complains. so what's so special about "hundreds upon hundreds" of ordinary folks who allegedly "died" in bank queues?? according to eyewitness accounts by susukumar and his naxal cohorts??

in many cities, the average restaurants have a life of a few months before they fold and lo behold another "restaurant" takes its place and follows a similar cycle and so on. Is Modi to blame?? They fail repeatedly because the owners do not understand that even though their food may be good, the location is totally wrong. People are out of jobs all the time.

I had a lot of "mad money" that I had quietly accumulated over the years and had to deposit because of demon and SHQ had a lot to say about it, most of it was rather unpleasant. So if some wives had concealed money from their husbands for whatever reason and their husbands found out about it and it caused some family discomfort so what?? national policy cannot be made or unmade because of some disagreement in the interpersonal relationships of some husbands and wives.

If you think that Modi did this merely to win in UP, you are wrong. They did not need demon and all its attendant headaches to do this.

card companies like visa and master card will be driven out of India only by Rupay, if we play our cards right, pardon the unintended pun. We still need these buggers for international payments anyway.

TKiran
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby TKiran » 08 Feb 2017 20:40

Chetak ji, is it wrong to expect NM to concentrate on economy and military? Why do you bring 60 years of Congress? Congress rule is gone.

You only remember the last 10years and extrapolate it to 60 years, there were good Prime Ministers in Congress also. IG was able to exercise her power without any hesitation. That is the primary requirement of a leader, I don't want to get into right or wrong of her actions, though I believe all her actions were right, except some naieve decisions, that is for another day.

She used her power.

PVNR, though had minority govt., used his power effectively.

NM actually is disliked in AP as he never understood the sentiment like IG understood. He thinks that all South Indians are rajinikanths, but still managed such a phenomenal mandate in 2014, it's but natural to expect to do something right at the national level. Economy, he did zilch. Economy is growing just because he is not screwing it like 10years of misrule, but is it too much to ask to do something about the economy?

But even more expedient right now is military intervention in the neighborhood,

He is failing in his duty to militarily intervene in the neighborhood, but if you don't understand how dire the situation is, then ignorance is bliss.

Suraj
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 08 Feb 2017 20:50

Sigh. Please take politics into politics thread.

Also, TKiran, please stop trolling. You already have one ban on your record for trolling in this thread, and are quite close to another.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Feb 2017 21:13

He is failing in his duty to militarily intervene in the neighborhood, but if you don't understand how dire the situation is, then ignorance is bliss.

TKiran, over on the Strategic Forum, please explain to us how dire the neighborhood situation is, in your opinion. There are enough threads there for your assessment to fit in one of them. Or are you just trolling?

habal
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby habal » 08 Feb 2017 23:14

New RBI circular

https://m.rbi.org.in/Scripts/Notificati ... 856&Mode=0

RBI/2016-17/224
DCM (Plg) 3107/10.27.00/2016-17

February 08, 2017

All Banks

Dear Madam / Sir,

Removal of limits on withdrawal of cash from Saving Bank Accounts

Please refer to our circular DCM (Plg) 2905/10.27.00/2016-17 dated January 30, 2017 on the captioned subject.

2. In the wake of withdrawal of Specified Bank Notes (SBNs) since November 09, 2016 Reserve Bank had placed certain limits on cash withdrawals from Savings / Current / Cash credit /Overdraft accounts and withdrawals through ATMs. On a review of the pace of remonetisation, Reserve Bank partially restored status quo ante by removing the restrictions on cash withdrawals from Current / Cash credit / Overdraft accounts and ATMs effective January 31, 2017 and February 01, 2017 respectively. However, the limits on cash withdrawal from Savings Bank accounts continued to be in place.

3. In line with the pace of remonetisation, it has now been decided to remove the restrictions on cash withdrawals from Saving Bank accounts (including accounts opened under PMJDY) in a two step process as under:

Effective February 20, 2017, the limits on cash withdrawals from the Savings Bank accounts will be enhanced to ₹ 50,000 per week (from the current limit of ₹ 24,000 per week); and

Effective March 13, 2017, there will be no limits on cash withdrawals from Savings Bank accounts.


4. Please acknowledge receipt.

Yours faithfully,

(P Vijaya Kumar)
Chief General Manager

UlanBatori
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Feb 2017 23:30

Per latest claims citing FM, 10.38 lac Karod has not returned meaning BM destroyed. If so, that is a huge chunk of the total deMO, hain? No credible link to post, came in email, sorry.

Melwyn

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Melwyn » 08 Feb 2017 23:44

Field Marshal TKiran will lead us to glorious victory against the adharmiks.

Lilo
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Lilo » 08 Feb 2017 23:45

A_Gupta wrote:
TKiran wrote:He is failing in his duty to militarily intervene in the neighborhood, but if you don't understand how dire the situation is, then ignorance is bliss.

TKiran, over on the Strategic Forum, please explain to us how dire the neighborhood situation is, in your opinion. There are enough threads there for your assessment to fit in one of them. Or are you just trolling?
TKiran wrote:With the kind of mandate he got from the people, by this time he should have made military inroads into PoK by this time. But he is sticking on to his kursee. He doesn't know rajadharma. Watch the movie "gautamiputra" Shatakarni, you will get the exact point I am trying to emphasize.
I have answered TKiran's concerns comparing Satakarini movie exploits to Modi's expected performance & "rajdharma" through a movie review kind of thingy here.
viewtopic.php?p=2112561#p2112561

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 08 Feb 2017 23:51

UlanBatori wrote:Per latest claims citing FM, 10.38 lac Karod has not returned meaning BM destroyed. If so, that is a huge chunk of the total deMO, hain? No credible link to post, came in email, sorry.

That number doesn't add up . Upto Dec 10 over 12 lakh crore were deposited . There was only 16 lakh crore in play for DeMo so one can't have 10lakh crore left over except in Ulaan Baator

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Feb 2017 00:05

Sorree onlee. That was a slight misreading of the Fake News Ticker by UBFN (Ulan Bataar Fake News).Link is here

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby geeth » 09 Feb 2017 00:07

UlanBatori wrote:Per latest claims citing FM, 10.38 lac Karod has not returned meaning BM destroyed. If so, that is a huge chunk of the total deMO, hain? No credible link to post, came in email, sorry.


No, that is not the case. The FM in his budget speech had mentioned that there were about 1.09 crore accounts which had deposits between 2 lakhs - 80 lakhs (average 5.3?lakhs) and about 1.4 lakh accounts had deposits above 80 lakhs (averaging 3.3 crores). Together, these two categories of accounts had a deposit of 10.38 lakh crores.

The argument is that, "who else other than a black money holder will have average cash in hand of 5.3 lakh or 3.3 crore? ; and to be fair, even if you discard half the accounts as genuine, still you will end up with more than 5 lakh crores as black money"

Hope it clarifies. What you said is right - that 10.38 lakh croes is black, but all deposited in bank. But as Per pappu logic what is deposited is white onlee
Last edited by geeth on 09 Feb 2017 00:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Feb 2017 00:09

Can't think of many counters to that. Keeping crores under pillow is an invitation to having one's throat slit, hain? I know some ppl who were caught flatfooted because they had just completed a real estate deal involving long-term appreciated land (perhaps 80% BM of course) circa Nov. 8 in order to fund a totally legitimate venture involving renovating a small house and converting front into a store and equipping the store. Managed to unload all of it by various means, so they would not have been identified among these depositors. Down side is that they had to unload it all and hence lost the stash that would have allowed them to complete some other purchase deal. So I would say that maybe well over 50% of the BM managed to slide under the wire undetected.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 09 Feb 2017 00:54

Data On Demonetised Notes To Be Revealed After June: RBI
http://www.bloombergquint.com/business/ ... r-june-rbi

Over a month after the end of 50-day demonetisation period, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday said it is reconciling data on junked Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes with physical cash and the "final numbers" will be divulged after June 30, the day when all windows for depositing old notes will be closed.

Following the shock demonetisation announcement on November 8 last year, the government had asked people to deposit old high-value currency notes in banks by December 30. Indians who were abroad during November 9 to December 30 have been given a 3-month grace period till March 31 to deposit the junked notes, while for the non-resident Indians (NRIs), it is allowed for six months till June 30.

RBI Deputy Governor SS Mundra said the final numbers can only be revealed after counting the notes deposited in cooperative banks, receipt of information from Nepal and Bhutan, and close of the window for deposit of notes by NRIs.

“After adding all these, we will give out the number (of notes deposited). But the final numbers and piece-to-piece verification of the huge volume of currency that has come in will take time. That we will come out in due course,” he told reporters here.

“The window (for NRIs) is open till June 30 in which people can deposit cash. And after adding all these, we will give out the number,” Mundra said.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby disha » 09 Feb 2017 01:03

^^ [ulan batoriji] But back into the economy as white and not circulating around in black again and competing against the accounted economy.

Also for whiners who are stating that it is back to business., do note that transacting in cash in very large sums is being difficult.

My evil cousin is already wailing for transacting above >50k Rs. in cash. It is not easy to obtain 25 crisp or un-crisp 2k Rs. notes. It is more like some 2k, some 500 Rs and mostly 100 Rs. - and no-nothing doing of putting that stash on your body or your jacket or your suitcase or anything else. It definitely will not go in the blouses of 'poor street vendors' and thus on the bosoms of some wimmen. Bollytards may actually use this idea of stashing 500 Rs. notes on their bosoms and hence have a sex change or enlargement ...

TKiran'ji - you got TKiran'ed by MoDi because of your own antics. Rest of all you state is whine., and sooner rather than later I expect you to whine more - since Modi is going after Benaami accounts. I would suggest now that you actually sell your Benaami properties in white when there is a chance and live a law abiding life. It is good for your health, definitely for your mental health.

Habal'ji - are you anti-Hindu? Just asking. BTW, the phrase "Internet Hindu" was coined by a so-called-journo-who is actually a Kissinger a$se kissing cat5moron. The word Hindu is used as a synonym of a boor, ill-educated, illiterate, unsophisticated person and 'Internet Hindu' was coined by that Cat5moron to dumb down the criticisms emanating from the SM. It is a different case now when the so-called-SM trolls owned up Internet-Hindu and are setting the narrative for MSM.

On Demo., the latest, useless & false narrative that is being spread is that 'Modi did it to win UP elections'., and if that is indeed the case - my take is 'Great! why are the rest of the political parties dabbling in black money?'

Problem with setting up false narratives are that it usually boomerangs quickly. People indulging in false narrative islike Pappu saying "Modi says Congress Mukt Bharat and I am taking him seriously".

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 09 Feb 2017 01:28

My interpretation of the 10 lakh crore figure is that it's the cumulative cash deposit base that's been considered black money, because it lacks adequate reference data against prior income records for the PAN numbers provided. Already, GoI has issued notices to almost 2 million people corresponding to total deposits of 6.8 lakh crore. Therefore, I interpret the 10 lakh crore number as the existence of a further 3.5-4 lakh crore in deposits without adequate explanation, but which have not yet been formally flagged with the associated owner.

At the start of demonetization, the total sum in Rs.500 and 1000 notes was ~Rs.16 lakh crore. It was estimated that approx 30% of that cash was being used by the black economy. Now fast fwd to today and the government's references suggest that they were WAY off - more than 10 lakh crore (almost 70% of high denomination notes) was cash circulating in the black economy.

What this implies is a far greater potential for government to identify informal activity that had been hidden from formal accounting. Both in quantitative and qualitative terms, many more people had a lot more private wealth stashed from official view. That's now coming out in the open. Note that the 10 lakh crore is just the cash supporting the black economy. The actual black economy is many times larger, just as only ~$250 billion of currency circulates but our GDP is $2.5 trillion, or 10x that number.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 09 Feb 2017 03:03

I think PM Modi's speech made his intent quite clear. He said that yes, the vast majority of black wealth is held in property, jewelry, gold and silver. But cash is the starting point, and he started with that. He referred to the fact that a Benami property bill was passed in 1988, when the opposition held all the levers of power, but was never notified (i.e, actual rules on how the legislation would work were never formulated). This has finally happened in 2016. PM Modi advised people to talk to their chartered accountants and get their property ownership cleared up.

If the black wealth is many times more than the black cash, then pursuing benami properties will result in a reaction many times more strident than that with demonetization. The short-term impact on the economy may also be stronger than with demonetization, I think. As PM Modi said, the time to take such measures as demonetization is when the economy is robust. My guess is that PM Modi will wait for the impacts to economic activity of demonetization fade away, have a couple of quarters of good macroeconomic numbers, and then strike.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Feb 2017 04:51

IMO real estate values are about 4 to 5 times the assessed market (i.e., taxable) values. IOW, no one will agree to sell at the assessed value or anywhere near it. To compare with Ulan Bator, in UBstan, if a property sale is registered for X yuan, then the market value gets marked up (or down) to that value. When my evil 6th coujin E6C bought, back in the 1991 depression, the price paid was x. The assessed value said 1.5x, and the real estate tax bill came saying that. E6C appealed, and simply showed the price paid and said, hey, I am a simple yak-herding first-time hut-buyer, I don't get to pay less than market price.

The Jury said: "you've said enough, thanks". The guvrmand wimmens looked glum/livid, but they ordered her to slash the assessed value to what E6C paid.

Homeowner's Tax is paid each year on the Assessed Value, which the Guvrmand updates from time to time, and full sale value is clear proof of market value (not saying that the Khans are not adept at having some other arrangement on the side, we simple yak-herders don't know of any jail-proof way of doing those. I don't know what actually prevents someone from selling for, say 600K in a $500K market to Abdul bin Rodriguez who brings a wad of cash, and then do the Closing Documents showing only 400K, claiming a distress sale. But if the difference is too glaring I think friendly local Revenuer will pay a vijit and offer to buy for $450K. Or take a close look under Abdul's Ferrari.

HOWEVER, I THINK that there is no capital gains tax on sales of ur principal cave in Ulan Bator. So why would I NOT want to report full sale value? And the buyer is happy to report full buying price (assuming the source of income doesn't get the Eye-Tee interested, which is pretty rare). So prices can keep going up, no problem with totally gora money. New buyer will try their best to :(( to get the assessment reduced, but if you think u r going to sell, u WANT that assessment hiked to get a better price.

So now what is the prospect for real estate in urban India? Would YOU pay full asking price for a flat in Bluru, Kerala, and agree to show only 20 percent of that on the document? Only if you have this stash of 2000-Re notes that u don't want NaMO or his EyeTee to know about. What is ur chance of selling for a profit in, say, 2 years? Or at least not taking a 50% bath? I am sure the gray cells are clicking away much faster in desi brains on such problems. So what happens to real estate prices? Would you SELL at 50% of the neighborhood value and get out saying hai, it's going down another 50% in 2 years, I want out now? But who would buy at 50% if they think the same?

IOW, why has there not been an utter real estate CRASH yet in urban India? Where people just walk away and leave the mortgage like what happened in Yoo Ess 2008 and Puerto Rico ever since? The interest rates are outrageously high too.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Karthik S » 09 Feb 2017 07:07

at 21:30 mark, SS says almost 100% of currency notes have returned to the banks.


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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 09 Feb 2017 07:14

For RE to crash, there needs to be transactions happening, and there needs to be liens coming due and being enforced. Even in the US, arguably the market did not crash as much as it should have, because the government backstopped it. Those mounting NPAs on the banks books are primarily infrastructure and RE loans progressively going bad in slow motion.

Further, transactions are hard to perform because the cash base of black money is largely gone. People will come in and say 'its back to normal saar!'' but they are speaking merely from their little place in the economy. In reality data shows that the actual value of cash outstanding is down 55% from 20 lakh crore to just over 9 lakh crore. Moreover, GoI has printed more small denominations and fewer 500/2000 notes. Before Nov 8, a full ~16 lakh crore out of 20 lakh crore was just 500 and 1000 notes.

The result is that the ability to transact - other than through barter - is very low. Further, I think lots of benami owners are trying to extinguish their own ties to the property in a way they can't be caught with. Or trying to formalize ownership. At least by now, I hope BMers are willing to listen when Modi says he'll take action. If not, well, there's going to be blood in the water.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby habal » 09 Feb 2017 17:25

^^
disha
Habal'ji - are you anti-Hindu?

my wife asks me sumilar questions. Like, "do you like gopika, or anila/akhila/roshni (colleagues)'. Now I am supposed to answer her with straight face. Since she will be looking looking straight but BARS locked sideways in 170° azimuth. To add to irony I may also like the pretty face of a gopika or roshni because I am a male with natural attractions and normal production of testosterone with resultant high libido. And I know if my testosterone production dips because then I take supplements to maintain it since I like to keep muscle definition. So how do I admit to her. If I say 'no' then she will think/know that I am lying. If I say 'yes' then some flying object will come hurtling in my direction sooner or later.

So my reply to her will be on lines, 'she is good looking but has frizzy hair that I don't like'. disha ji Do you want me to give you an answer on similar lines because this is that kind of question.

GOPIO Asks PM Modi To Allow Diaspora To Deposit, Exchange Currency

WASHINGTON – Leading NRI forum Global Organisation of People of Indian Origin (GOPIO) has launched an online petition, asking Prime Minister Narendra Modi to allow Indian diaspora to deposit or exchange their demonetised Indian currencies at the Reserve Bank of India.
“This is a major issue for the diaspora Indians and it can be easily resolved, there is no need for the government to separate out NRIs from PIOs, we are all (overseas Indians) diaspora Indians,” said GOPIO International president Niraj Baxi.
Currently, NRIs holding Indian Passport are only allowed to deposit or exchange the demonetised currencies at five Reserve Bank India branches in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai and Nagpur.
diaspora Indians standing in the line for hours in front of RBI offices are turned away by security guards when they reach the gate, GOPIO said.
It said with an estimate of holding an average of Rs 5,000 per person, the 30 million diaspora Indians and NRIs have about Rs 15,000 crore which is about one per cent of the demonetised currencies.
Although the Indian government in a notification extended the date for the exchange to June 30 at the Reserve Bank of India branches, diaspora Indians including those holding OCI/PIO card holders are not allowed to deposit their demonetised currencies, it said.
The government of India has made such rules, but the problem is that this information has not been published. NRIs/PIOs arriving in India are not informed to get documents, signed from an income tax official, on amount of demonetised currency one is bringing with them, and secondly even if one knows about this rule, no one at the airport knows where such official would be sitting,” said Thomas Abraham, chairman of GOPIO International.


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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Feb 2017 18:24

^^^ :mrgreen:

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Supratik » 09 Feb 2017 19:43

In India cash is 12% of the GDP. 10.8 lakh crore is roughly 150 billion dollars. If we assume the BM to be one-third to two-third of the suspect deposits it comes to 50-100 billion dollars. Means GDP in black is 500 billion to 1T dollars. Means our real GDP is around 3.5 to 4 trillion dollars. Just to give you an idea of how mammoth black economy is/was.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dipanker » 09 Feb 2017 20:58

Suraj wrote: In reality data shows that the actual value of cash outstanding is down 55% from 20 lakh crore to just over 9 lakh crore. Moreover, GoI has printed more small denominations and fewer 500/2000 notes. Before Nov 8, a full ~16 lakh crore out of 20 lakh crore was just 500 and 1000 notes.


Isn't your math a bit off?

If before DeMo Rs 20 lakh crore was in circulation and out of which Rs ~15.6 lakh crore was demonetized, that means Rs 4.4 lakh crore in smaller denomination was still in circulation. By January 18th RBI had already put Rs Rs 9.2 lakh crore of new currency notes in circulation.

Thus the total amount in circulation by January 18th was Rs (4.4 + 9.2) lakh crore = Rs 13.6 lakh crore which is 68% of Rs 20 lakh crore in circulation before the DeMO.

So unless I am making mistake in this calculation, your claim of only 45% remonetization is incorrect?

Beside isin't remonetization, based on what I have read in media, supposed to continue till March end, by then most of the remaining 32% may get replenished too ?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 09 Feb 2017 21:21

I'm quoting this article, which I posted in the last page:
Rs 6.78 lakh cr remonetised, Rs 9.1 lakh cr in circulation: Govt
In the ongoing process of remonetisation, banknotes worth Rs 6.78 lakh crore returned to the formal banking system between November 10 and January 13, taking the total currency in circulation to Rs 9.1 lakh crore, the government said on Tuesday.

"Remonetisation is taking place ceaselessly at a fast pace. Between November 10, 2016 and January 13, 2017, the notes in circulation have increased by Rs 6.78 lakh crore, thereby taking the total notes in circulation to Rs 9.1 lakh crore," Minister of State for Finance Arjun Ram Meghwal said in a written reply in Rajya Sabha.

This is exactly on the same lines as my own calculations.

Also, I've not seen any indication that GoI intends to remonetize most of the currency base, much less all of it. Logically it makes no sense for them to do so, considering the recent largest exercise in demonetization in the history of mankind.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Feb 2017 21:25

IMO, there was an exponential rise in "visible wealth" in India starting around mid-90s. May have been partly post Gelf War wealth repatriation, part rise in urban real estate demand due to DOOs, but real estate speculation just started shooting land values through the stratosphere. Now real estate price per unit area in most of urban/suburban India is I think way above levels in most of the urban/suburban US. In converted dollars, none of this "PeePeePee" etc. This is insane. It is 50% speculative bubble (I buy insanely high today with 90% loan because I can sell tomorrow for higher), maybe 45% BM cash that has to be sunk somewhere, and maybe 5% WM hard-earned by work/savings/stock market rise.

One had to be an occasional but regular annual vijitor to see this rise occurring.

So I think percentage of BM in the overall economy may be off due to this aspect. Most of it is sunk, with no need to keep churning because values keep going up faster than you could make money legitimately in any enterprise, industrial or speculative growth stocks. Ppl who until the mid 90s were hard put to get a 6th-hand 1960 model Ambassador, now cycle their Toyota Innova out every 3 years and get a new one. With no visible record of ever having earned any money remotely approaching the income level needed to get ONE Innova.

My point is that the entire thing looks like a bubble to me. There just isn't the economic basis for anything near the levels of JeeDeepPee etc that I see. Then again, the sunk investment may be astronomically high - in theory. Unless churned into something legit, it can explode in something very ugly. Probably Chicken Little dhoti-shivering, or is Mohterma Cassandra the better analogy?
Last edited by UlanBatori on 09 Feb 2017 21:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 09 Feb 2017 21:30

Mind u, I believe that PeePeePee should make 1USD < 10 Rupees, but real estate is already there. With absolutely wild variations between "recently assessed value" and the rest. In Malloostan, say 1 cent of reclaimed rice paddy field, prone to flooding to 6 feet every July, is assessed at say 3lac per cent. Nice fertile, productive fenced-on plot with well water and decent road access, but well above flood level, stays at say Rs. 4000 per cent. With a 3-crore house almost across the street. Insane.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 09 Feb 2017 22:16

It is absolutely true that the quantum of black money depends on the performance of the formal economy. It's a matter of rate of return. If formal economy generates sufficient rate of return such that the cost calculation becomes that the hassle of 'managing' black wealth is not worth the effort, it's better to just go white. The most sustainable long term solution to the existence of a black economy is that the white economy is just less hassle to maintain. This involves a combination of the formal white economy growing fast enough AND enough hurdles placed in the way of black money generation and accumulation that the cost calculation is in favor of white.

The growth since the 90s makes it less obvious that money needs to be hidden from the hands of the state in the middle of a long stagnant economy, because the economy wasn't stagnating anymore. Now with DeMo followed by Benami Act and other actions, the second condition is also fulfilled. That's how long term policy action is implemented as a social contract - make efforts to grow, and keep hurdles in the way of repeating past behavior.

That's how the Chinese convinced their people to accept growth too - they worked on growth, and also made sure dissent will be dealt with severely. Their own current equilibrium didn't happen overnight - it took them well over a decade and there are still large sections of restless population. Economic news from China in the 90s were characterized by stories of protests, strikes and horrific police action.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dipanker » 09 Feb 2017 22:35

Suraj wrote:I'm quoting this article, which I posted in the last page:
Rs 6.78 lakh cr remonetised, Rs 9.1 lakh cr in circulation: Govt
In the ongoing process of remonetisation, banknotes worth Rs 6.78 lakh crore returned to the formal banking system between November 10 and January 13, taking the total currency in circulation to Rs 9.1 lakh crore, the government said on Tuesday.

"Remonetisation is taking place ceaselessly at a fast pace. Between November 10, 2016 and January 13, 2017, the notes in circulation have increased by Rs 6.78 lakh crore, thereby taking the total notes in circulation to Rs 9.1 lakh crore," Minister of State for Finance Arjun Ram Meghwal said in a written reply in Rajya Sabha.

This is exactly on the same lines as my own calculations.

Also, I've not seen any indication that GoI intends to remonetize most of the currency base, much less all of it. Logically it makes no sense for them to do so, considering the recent largest exercise in demonetization in the history of mankind.


Between the minister's written reply and RBI's Gov. testimony to Parliamentary Standing Committee, I am more inclined to go by the RBI Gov. numbers, as he is more authentic source. That would mean that a total of Rs 9.2 lakh crore worth of NEW currency has been introduced by 18th of Jan, meaning the current level of circulation should be about 68% of pre DeMo level.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 09 Feb 2017 22:47

Maybe but I'm not interested in a debate on semantic interpretation of words. I quoted the minister in his own words as stated in the article . The article you mentioned does not quite the RBI directly . Rather, someone else describes their interaction with the RBI in a press interaction . Whereas the MoS-F answers a question in parliament .

It's my own view that if there was a total number other than 9.x (i.e. 13.x or whatever) then it would be stated as such . Instead , 9.x is the only number quoted in either article, and in the Business Standard one the MoS-F explicitly states that it's the total . If you want to believe that 13.x is correct, that's fine . I'll just point out that no one mentions that number in either article, and therefore it's literally your interpretation .


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