Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Nov 2016 01:56

Thanks for the translations!

Time for the stone pelter rageboys to get PAN/Adhaar and KYC paperwork done for their PMJDY accounts

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Nov 2016 02:20

Read on Twitter that Jagan Reddy in AP is sending crores via ships to Dubai for laundering. Hope they catch

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Nov 2016 02:21

Spread this PayTM ad.

AAPtards foced PayTM to delete this Ad

https://pic.twitter.com/LDlVH4XvzP

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Nov 2016 02:28

vijayk wrote:Read on Twitter that Jagan Reddy in AP is sending crores via ships to Dubai for laundering. Hope they catch

Crores of what ?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Nov 2016 02:41

^^ old notes

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Nov 2016 02:54

What old notes ? Each one of them is worth Rs.0 . What's he going to do - print the new features on them with his printer ?

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Nov 2016 02:58

Suraj wrote:What old notes ? Each one of them is worth Rs.0 . What's he going to do - print the new features on them with his printer ?

Probably launder via Dubai using legitimate sources such as Wester Digital in Dubai. Hope they can declare it all as worthless. But they are confident that they have lot of time to launder it back.

shyamal · Post by **shyamal** » 14 Nov 2016 03:06

Lies of Cong caught
http://www.opindia.com/2016/11/congress ... ter-again/

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Nov 2016 03:07

It is not possible to launder cash without ID . None of these money changers accept the old notes anymore. Even SBI in the US does not accept it (yet), and neither does Travelex/Thomas Cook/Western Union etc. None of them want the liability of dealing with GoI. Please understand, the old series is no longer money. It's a chit with a liability on the holder to prove its origin. Jagan is sending a shipload of toilet paper to Dubai, is what it is.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 14 Nov 2016 03:14

The common man has a role in BM. Even the most honest family has some involvement. Small to medium size business use BM too. Large, very large and MNCS? Let us not even go there. Next all political parties need BMW. Then jihadist and EJ use BM. Pakistan and China are involved in fake currencies.

So now if you are a nationalistic PM with a good NSA as a counsel, what would you do? You cannot put 1.2 billion in jail, heck you do not want to put thousands in jail.

So what are your options? You want to bring this money into the system. If you get a few fish, then they are bonus. You want to show the will and intention, you really do not want to put people in jail to teach them lesson. Just a fear of law, fear of inconvenience, fear of loss of wealth etc are sufficient to keep the future population in line.

Modi is for making systemic changes. He is not after people really, he wants to set up working systems. He is already focusing on trying to conduct elections simultaneously.

He is changing India, he will let some of the corrupt go scot free. If people fall in the net, he will not do anything to help or cause more takleef.

Pathik · Post by **Pathik** » 14 Nov 2016 05:25

vijayk wrote:
Suraj wrote:What old notes ? Each one of them is worth Rs.0 . What's he going to do - print the new features on them with his printer ?
Probably launder via Dubai using legitimate sources such as Wester Digital in Dubai. Hope they can declare it all as worthless. But they are confident that they have lot of time to launder it back.

Launder it back where? Into an Indian bank account?

disha · Post by **disha** » 14 Nov 2016 05:31

Small to medium size businesses are forced into BM for two purposes., from customers who want to do tax avoidance to lower their own costs and by the dogs who stand at every point in the business process collecting their biscuits., starting with sales tax dogs and not ending with "license raj" inspecting dogs.

At one stage this dog biscuit business acquires its own life and the SME is trapped. No forms and higher revenues and no need to be compliant., just throw some biscuits out... life can never be easier!

GST is going to reduce kinks that will lead to tax BM. The sarkari babus who cannot even run helter skelter now will not be able to enforce license raj dog tax on SMEs and further the politicos will have to figure out a new way to finance their campaigns. And customers need to learn to pay their taxes.

The biggest BM sources and conduits are RE and Gold and hawala financing for terror., because it can hold large value in a relatively small volume (yeah land too) and it has relatively low safekeeping requirements (termites do not eat it., fire/water/wind do not destroy it) and stealing it is not relatively easy.

The next step is to go after RE/Gold and Hawala financing and I think that is where Modi is asking for help and support. RE is going to be the tough nut., but yes - if RE comes into white - it needs to be supported.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 14 Nov 2016 06:15

Rural areas are being a problem as per some reports. NM need to arrange for more cash in the countryside ASAP. More 500 notes will also help as 2000 is too big for some transactions. Further, 500s will allow people to disburse them faster. Cash hoarding is going on with new notes and smaller notes, so there shall not be too many withdrawals and hoarding also unless there is the reason for that.

saip · Post by **saip** » 14 Nov 2016 06:21

Suraj wrote:It is not possible to launder cash without ID . None of these money changers accept the old notes anymore. Even SBI in the US does not accept it (yet), and neither does Travelex/Thomas Cook/Western Union etc. None of them want the liability of dealing with GoI. Please understand, the old series is no longer money. It's a chit with a liability on the holder to prove its origin. Jagan is sending a shipload of toilet paper to Dubai, is what it is.

To send toilet paper to Dubai he is spending good money. Good riddance of black and white money.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Nov 2016 06:31

http://swarajyamag.com/ideas/trouble-fi ... lp-you-out
Trouble Finding A Functioning ATM In The Demonetisation Saga? Swarajya Has Come Up With A Public Service Feature To Help You Out

https://www.akara.co.in/swarajyamag/

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Nov 2016 06:43

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 14 Nov 2016 06:50

Admins - can we please start a new thread on how to prevent black money generation in the future

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 14 Nov 2016 07:01

Yagnasri wrote:Rural areas are being a problem as per some reports. NM need to arrange for more cash in the countryside ASAP. More 500 notes will also help as 2000 is too big for some transactions. Further, 500s will allow people to disburse them faster. Cash hoarding is going on with new notes and smaller notes, so there shall not be too many withdrawals and hoarding also unless there is the reason for that.

Saar, as per "some reports" is not reliable. There is a lot of fear mongering and rumor mongering by special interests.

I took a road trip to Varanasi last two days and stopped by extremely rural areas to get a feel. They have more patience then us "educated" city people and seemed happy with this step. Post offices and bank branches didn't have nearly as much rush as in cities. Markets were buzzing as usual.

Petrol pump guy accepted my Rs2000 note and even took my second bill to exchange with 20x hundreds.

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 14 Nov 2016 07:01

I know huge amounts of currency is being funneled into the system. How are Banks ensuring that the notes are not fake? Especially in places like WB & J&K where we know that it can be more probable. It is catch 22. If you look for fake notes you slow down cash collection and people complain. If you accept it then you have legalized it. Any idea how banks are dealing with it?

saip · Post by **saip** » 14 Nov 2016 07:07

I thought most money counting machines are programmed to ID the fakes.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Nov 2016 07:07

suryag wrote:Admins - can we please start a new thread on how to prevent black money generation in the future

No please, this one is enough.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 Nov 2016 07:09

Brad Goodman wrote:I know huge amounts of currency is being funneled into the system. How are Banks ensuring that the notes are not fake? Especially in places like WB & J&K where we know that it can be more probable. It is catch 22. If you look for fake notes you slow down cash collection and people complain. If you accept it then you have legalized it. Any idea how banks are dealing with it?

The moneys in their hands. They can retroactively annul part or whole of the deposit and send the police to your registered address.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 14 Nov 2016 07:20

saip wrote:I thought most money counting machines are programmed to ID the fakes.

I thought so too. I've seen once bank folks scurrying around excitedly after cashier detected one. Not sure how machine notifies him.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 14 Nov 2016 07:22

In rural TN and things are near normal. My granny even offered to exchange the few notes I haven't bothered to stand in line for in Chennai. Nobody is standing still wringing their hands. I will make my rounds to see how many are going truly cashless instead of maintaining accounts

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Nov 2016 07:24

Meanwhile @timesofindia spreads rumour about Death at ATM & apologized on the 7th page, that's how they are creating panic in the country.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 14 Nov 2016 07:46

Dinesh S wrote: the money back in the economy albeit in black? I hate coming back to rte but it is again one big example on how bad laws are worse than illegal activity/corruption. As per rte, hundreds of thousands of school will have to be closed down because it won't be able to meet the standards set in the stupid law and the only thing which keeps them going is the bribes. Would you rather have them closed down because that is illegal?

Sure, I will. You would rather keep them warm and keep them working as usual inspire of the fact that it simply doesn't work?

No serious economist i know thinks it was a good move for economy.

Seeing all your statements, I will be surprised if you recognized a serious economist even if he/she came and spoke to you. But purely out of curiosity, and all seriousness, which are the serious economists that you are talking about? I would like a few names.

saip · Post by **saip** » 14 Nov 2016 08:04

What is this RTE yow Keep alluding to ? Please post it in Nukkad if you are not supposed to discuss it here.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 14 Nov 2016 08:07

a) serious economists...rahul gandhi, mamta banarjee, sushri mayawait, mulayam sing yadav, brinda karat, b) why the F cant the ATM's be kept alive with more periodic infusion.. i mean this is a national emergency / venture. This is the only sad part of the whole excercise. the ATM's should be kept alive 24*7 as much as possible.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 14 Nov 2016 08:28

With all the hardships that citizens are going through, the constant thing I hear from the people in lines is that this is all worth it to catch black money holders and corrupt officials.

Therefore the Government will have to make some very public arrests and parade the rogue's gallery in the media so that the people feel that it was all worth it. Going cashless is an additional benefit but that's not on the people's radar right now.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 14 Nov 2016 08:29

saip wrote:
Suraj wrote:It is not possible to launder cash without ID . None of these money changers accept the old notes anymore. Even SBI in the US does not accept it (yet), and neither does Travelex/Thomas Cook/Western Union etc. None of them want the liability of dealing with GoI. Please understand, the old series is no longer money. It's a chit with a liability on the holder to prove its origin. Jagan is sending a shipload of toilet paper to Dubai, is what it is.
To send toilet paper to Dubai he is spending good money. Good riddance of black and white money.

This reminds me of 15 year old IT equipment that needs to be re-cycled. It is useless, and costs more to scrap in an eco-friendly way or ship anywhere than it is worth.

Which is why while buying new PCs a customer can pay extra to have their old PC scrapped.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 14 Nov 2016 08:34

saip wrote:What is this RTE yow Keep alluding to ? Please post it in Nukkad if you are not supposed to discuss it here.

Right to Education. Has absolutely NOTHING to do with the demonetisation or the current thread topic, but is being bandied about as a shining example of why black money is essential to keep business running in the face of govt corruption and overregulation. The proprietors of such schools are supposedly herrowic individuals taking a last stand against a repressive state machinery, armed to the teeth with black money, 2nd amendment style

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 14 Nov 2016 08:59

manjgu wrote:a) serious economists...rahul gandhi, mamta banarjee, sushri mayawait, mulayam sing yadav, brinda karat, b) why the F cant the ATM's be kept alive with more periodic infusion.. i mean this is a national emergency / venture. This is the only sad part of the whole excercise. the ATM's should be kept alive 24*7 as much as possible.

It's not a question of "ATM to be kept alive". Two problems. A.) shortage of new currency -which will ease in 3-4 days B.) software upgrade on ATMs being tried, finding glitches, try again.. Kind of thing -again 3-4 days Max (this info from my bank manager)

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 14 Nov 2016 09:23

Suraj wrote: The moneys in their hands. They can retroactively annul part or whole of the deposit and send the police to your registered address.

For this to happen they need to put the currency I submit along with my PAN copy into a polythene and seal it so that some one can later do the sorting to find FICN. I hope they do it. Does anyone working in bank have any insight?

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 14 Nov 2016 09:26

Rishi Verma wrote:
manjgu wrote:a) serious economists...rahul gandhi, mamta banarjee, sushri mayawait, mulayam sing yadav, brinda karat, b) why the F cant the ATM's be kept alive with more periodic infusion.. i mean this is a national emergency / venture. This is the only sad part of the whole excercise. the ATM's should be kept alive 24*7 as much as possible.
It's not a question of "ATM to be kept alive". Two problems. A.) shortage of new currency -which will ease in 3-4 days B.) software upgrade on ATMs being tried, finding glitches, try again.. Kind of thing -again 3-4 days Max (this info from my bank manager)

The problem here is thinking that ATM's can only run with new notes and they have to be upgraded with software. What if all the ATM's all across the country is run 24/7 with just 100 Rupee notes? in cities for each Bank there may be 4 to 5 ATMs and also they can work 24/7 not like bank employees. So if ATM's are run even with 100's the queue in banks will come down considerably and those who need their old notes exchanged only have to stand. After few days only those ATM's that need upgrade and people working on it to upgrade can go down for a day while all others are working.

Also i have seen the ATM's functioning in some areas. First one bank's counter was open with 2 ATM's in it. and the queue length was around 40-50. Then after one hour another started to function and the queue went down by 20 people. So the more ATM's start to open all the queues will disappear.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 14 Nov 2016 09:31

uddu wrote:
Rishi Verma wrote:
It's not a question of "ATM to be kept alive". Two problems. A.) shortage of new currency -which will ease in 3-4 days B.) software upgrade on ATMs being tried, finding glitches, try again.. Kind of thing -again 3-4 days Max (this info from my bank manager)
The problem here is thinking that ATM's can only run with new notes and they have to be upgraded with software. What if all the ATM's all across the country is run 24/7 with just 100 Rupee notes? in cities for each Bank there may be 4 to 5 ATMs and also they can work 24/7 not like bank employees. So if ATM's are run even with 100's the queue in banks will come down considerably and those who need their old notes exchanged only have to stand. After few days only those ATM's that need upgrade and people working on it to upgrade can go down for a day while all others are working.

Also i have seen the ATM's functioning in some areas. First one bank's counter was open with 2 ATM's in it. and the queue length was around 40-50. Then after one hour another started to function and the queue went down by 20 people. So the more ATM's start to open all the queues will disappear.

Boss this is already being done, the problem is that with 100 Rs notes (and a security guard standing next to the ATM to ensure only 1 card per person) the ATMs are running out of money in an hour or two and then it takes 7-8 hours before they are replenished with cash.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Nov 2016 09:32

Raghav Bahl and the depressing jugaad of Indian journalism

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 14 Nov 2016 09:44

Tweet from our very own Mupalla

Is it possible to regulate this?

vina · Post by **vina** » 14 Nov 2016 09:53

Was dropping my kid off at the bus stop this morning and noticed an ICICI ATM getting replenished. Waited for the bus to pick up the kid , then walked back home, picked up my wallet , walked back to the ATM . By then a small line had formed. It took around 10 minutes, and I withdrew Rs 2000 .

We hardly use any cash at all, we are an all "electronic" family. I pay my driver via IMPS to his bank account only the maid insists on cash , along with the kids music teacher. Those two too will become electronic going forward. The only use of cash is for BMTC Volvo (the monthly pass doesnt make sense for me, the BMTC should come up with a limited use, stage to stage pass) , to buy veggies as needed . Even the milkman is always paid by cheque monthly. All our bills (power, phones,Tatasky etc is paid electronically). I cant imagine any middle class family today in India lining up to pay all this with cash (unless you are a doctor/lawyer kind of guy who handles cash on a regular basis.. my dad, for eg, is all deposit and no withdrawl and his ATM card keeps expiring on him and he is resistant to use any kind of card and refuses to get a credit card).

I guess after this, I expect limits on weekly and daily cash to continue. And now with the big denomination tackled and supply limited, the next step would be to do the same with Rs 100 and Rs 50 notes. That will be done with fair and a campaign to tell people to go electronic , as that is not the place where people can stash large amounts of wealth. Once that is done, I guess, you can start using the payment apps /UPI/Wallets what have you to do small daily transactions and we head towards a real cashless place like Sweden (with minimal use of cash).

Once cash goes electronic, petty corruption goes too, especially in the govt offices etc, more so, if those services are taken online and little or not need to go to an office for service.

vina · Post by **vina** » 14 Nov 2016 09:55

shiv wrote:Tweet from our very own Mupalla

Is it possible to regulate this?

Dont. Promote micro lending and stuff in big way. This kind of private lending cannot be policed and implemented. Best to make them unviable / noncompetitive.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 14 Nov 2016 10:00

I think its fair to classify money into 3 types (mainly in cash society like India).
- White Money = Fully declared to Govt.
- Black Money = Corrupt or other money, that they willfully conceal its existence to Govt.
- Undeclared or Unaccounted money = Its norm in cash society, where system forces small business men to use it.