Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 16 Aug 2017 23:24

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busine ... 61297.html

Income Tax drawing up fresh list of penny stocks suspected of money laundering

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 18 Aug 2017 00:41

First time in my life I saw ATM giving out 50rs notes.

salaam · Post by **salaam** » 18 Aug 2017 00:43

JayS wrote:First time in my life I saw ATM giving out 50rs notes.

#Blow2Modi if anything else

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 18 Aug 2017 01:09

JayS wrote:First time in my life I saw ATM giving out 50rs notes.

this is good..

I was always struck at the dichotomy of day to day life where my 100 rs note was too much for one person and too small for another person.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 18 Aug 2017 06:37

I don't see 2000 notes coming from ATMs in BLR anymore. Only 500s and 100s. Anyone else seeing this?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 18 Aug 2017 09:24

I think fresh printing of 2000 notes is stopped. So most of the notes in circulation will be out. Then may be 500s. In the near the future, we may have just 200,100,50,20,10 notes only.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 18 Aug 2017 11:26

arshyam wrote:I don't see 2000 notes coming from ATMs in BLR anymore. Only 500s and 100s. Anyone else seeing this?

Well the ATM I took money out from did give option for 2000, 500 and 50 rs notes. But I don't know if it actually had 2000 rs notes.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 18 Aug 2017 16:10

I rarely withdraw cash, but last week had to withdraw 20k, other than 2k in 500s and 50s, all else was in 2K notes from the bakiAxisbank.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 18 Aug 2017 16:25

Marten wrote:I rarely withdraw cash, but last week had to withdraw 20k, other than 2k in 500s and 50s, all else was in 2K notes from the bakiAxisbank.

Demonetization failed only.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 18 Aug 2017 16:55

Private banks will have 2000 notes mainly

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 25 Aug 2017 01:10

not sure what report this is and will it have full details on notes deposited or just the FICN part...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 215146.cms
The Reserve Bank of India's annual report likely to be released next week would throw light on the amount of counterfeit currency notes that have found their way into the banking system.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 28 Aug 2017 12:29

X-post from Economy

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/govt-mulling-2-relief-on-gst-for-digital-payments/articleshow/60250385.cms

As predicted :

The steps come at a time when there has been a fall in electronic transactions over the past few months. While they had picked up massively till March this year, the volumes have been coming down thereafter as the availability of cash went up.

As per the RBI, the number of electronic transactions went up from 67 crore in November last year to a peak of 89 crore in March this year. However, only 84 [crore] (sic) transactions were recorded in June.

The good news is the GOI is monitoring electronic payments trend and responding.

I have seen and experienced many establishments over the past few months stop accepting PayTM and 'swipe machine not working Sir'. People mostly and water will always take the path of least resistance.

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 29 Aug 2017 12:37

Demonetisation: New Rs 1,000 notes with enhanced safety features by December, says report

Preparations are in full swing at the Reserve Bank of India to introduce new Rs 1,000 notes with enhanced safety features by December, according to a report in the DNA newspaper.

"The printing presses at Mysore and Salboni are getting ready to print the brand-new Rs 1,000 notes which will have enhanced security features," the person has been quoted as saying in the report.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 29 Aug 2017 13:04

Gus wrote:not sure what report this is and will it have full details on notes deposited or just the FICN part...

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 215146.cms
The Reserve Bank of India's annual report likely to be released next week would throw light on the amount of counterfeit currency notes that have found their way into the banking system.

A couple of points. Two weeks prior to that one of ET's senior editors wrote a piece saying we don't have to wait too long as the RBI Balance sheet for 2017, June would be out. That has come and gone. Now we are told it is just another week away.
But who will bear the loss of FICN and the size of such losses is an interesting point. Normally the teller of the bank branch bears the loss if a fake currency note is detected at the bank's currency chest. If it is detected at the RBI when the bank tenders it as soiled beyond redemption the bank will have to identify from which branch of the bank it originated and pin it on the branch cashier. There serial number wise documentation of soiled notes returned to the RBI. But that is fair and equitable in the normal course. But demonetisation was an extraordinary event. It would be a ticklish question as to how the resultant loss would be accounted for.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 29 Aug 2017 15:17

I feel this government like all those previously doesn't give two hoots about solving the black money issue.

Black money is primarily a cash issue, the only way is to move away from cash but instead of doing that they are releasing more denominations and bringing back demonitised denominations. A 2% GST relief for digital payments won't solve the issue because merchants will not pass this along to consumers. Perhaps no GST for digital payments, or a flat 5%, for any digital payment might have an effect.

As the demonetisation exercise showed,Indians will only change or respond to change when forced to do so.

Removing all denominations other than 20 and below over time together with lowering the amount at which transactions need to be digital are the way forward. In the west, especially Europe, cash is hardly used. In fact in the U.K. I haven't had the need to use cash for almost 2 years.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 29 Aug 2017 20:00

^^^
http://www.thehindu.com/business/Econom ... 581350.ece

The 1000Re notes are not being re introduced.

habal · Post by **habal** » 30 Aug 2017 17:35

demonitisation data details by RBI is out.

counting exercise which lasted 8 months is over

http://wap.business-standard.com/articl ... 891_1.html

99% notes back with RBI.

6700 million demonitised notes were in circulation

89 million ₹1000 notes of 6700 million notes didn't come back

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 30 Aug 2017 18:16

Dont know how article has come up with the numbers, goign through the annual report 2016-17 I find none of the numbers mentioned in the article. As per the Report the Population of SBN- Old 500 and 1000 notes was 23.9 Billion page 129 and not 6.7 billion or 6700 million, the article is gasing around.

https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/AnnualReport ... ?year=2017

https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Annual ... 7FA9C7.PDF

https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/Annual ... 50841F.PDF

Only thing this cost of printing new currency had increased by 3500 crore rupees and Provision for Investment Revaluation Account-Rupee Securities (IRA-RS) seems to have increased by 12000 crore- fall in value, WTF RBI Investments in India created losses off 12000 crore for it? Seems to be Mark mark to Market losses made and added to Contingency fund for As on June 30, 2017, Quote from the Annual Report "an amount of Rs 131.40 billion was transferred to CF and an amount of `65.85 billion was charged to CF on account of (i) MTM loss of `29.63 billion on valuation of forward contracts and (ii) debit balance of `36.22 billion in the IRA-FS."

RBI Income has dipped by 18000 crore due to i)drop in Interest rates Rs 7350 Crore- and commercial Banks having to Borrow less from it and Rs. 5200 Crore from Exchange Losses.

So RBI decrease in Dividend of Rs. 34000 crore, 7350 Crore is lesser Interest Income, 5200 Crore Exhange rate Losses, Temporary Mark to Mark Market Investment Losses 12000 crore and Only around ~ 4000 crore is the cost of Printing new currency.

Why cant these Journalists read and report accordingly

From the Audit Report

We refer to para no. XI.6.2 of Notes to Accounts to the financial statements wherein the final accounting impact of Specified Bank Notes (SBNs)
which have ceased to be Notes in Circulation shall be passed by the Bank on the outcome of possible events described in the said para and on
completion of verification of SBNs received

From Note XI.6.2 Liabilities of Issue Department- Notes
Issued

Notes issued decreased by 11.79 per cent from `17,077.16 billion as on June 30, 2016 to `15,063.31 billion as on June 30, 2017. The decrease is the net impact of withdrawal from circulation of the old `500 and `1000 notes issued till November 08, 2016 and subsequent remonetisation efforts made by the Reserve Bank.

Until June 30, 2017, SBNs were received by the Reserve Bank either directly or from bank branches/post offices through the currency chest mechanism. Some of these SBNs are still lying in the currency chests. The value of the SBNs received by the currency chests has been credited to the banks’ account on “said to contain basis”. Till such time these notes are processed by the Reserve Bank for their numerical accuracy and authenticity, only an estimation of SBNs received back is possible. Subject to future corrections based on verification process when completed,
the estimated value of SBNs received as on June 30, 2017 is `15.28 trillion. Moreover, vide notification no G.S.R. 611 (E) dated June 20, 2017, Government of India allowed District Central Cooperative Banks (DCCBs) to deposit SBNs accepted by them from their customers within the period of 10th November to 14th November, 2016. Further, in terms of AP (DIR series) circular no. 45/2015-16

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 30 Aug 2017 19:06

Based on the Above counting of Old Notes is still not over. Estimated count which has come back 15.28 lac crore. As on 31 March 2016., old 1000 and 500 notes were 86.4 % of the 16.634 lakh Crore with Public, a.ka . 14372 crore. Depending on How much total Currency printed between 31 March 2016 and November 2016 we will have to arrive at the SBN not returened.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 30 Aug 2017 19:08

Aditya_V wrote: Why cant these Journalists read and report accordingly

Obvious answers:-
1. #Presstitutes are dumbos who can interpret the RBI report and accurately prepare their own reports.
2. #Presstitutes are on an agenda, to prove that demonetisation was a failure; mainly due to political/ideological reasons. "If you can't convince them, confuse them" (the readers), is a time tested tactic.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 30 Aug 2017 19:43

Ok I have figured this out, the Value of currency not come is ~ 831.5 Billion rupees or Rs. 83,150 Crore. If all 15.28 Lakh crore of currency received is genuine and not fake. Based on FICN Aldready detected this could increase by a few Thousand Crore

Going through the Curreny Management one can note as Of Mar 16, Old 500 and Old 1000 Notes worth 7854 and 6326 Billion= Rs. 14,180 Billion respectively. During 2016-17 Indent and Suplly of old 500 and 1000 notes were 2013 Million and 925 Million pieces respectively amounting to Rs. 1.9315 Billion. So Total SBN before Denomination was 16,111.5 Billion. Total SBN recived with some of it Still to be checked for FICN ~15,280 (refer Note XI.6.2 Liabilities of the Financial Statement). Therefore Value of SBN not received is 16,111-15280= Rs.831.5 Billion.

Bloody people Public anything without a simple read.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 30 Aug 2017 19:49

89 million 1000 notes not coming in is nearly 9000 crores not coming in. Not 900 crores as reported by media. this will be mostly from criminal activity and high level corruption where the fear of law will be paramount. those with hard earned but undeclared money have declared it. we have to look at the cumulative picture to assess success.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 30 Aug 2017 19:56

Sachin wrote:Obvious answers:-
1. #Presstitutes are dumbos who can interpret the RBI report and accurately prepare their own reports.
2. #Presstitutes are on an agenda, to prove that demonetisation was a failure; mainly due to political/ideological reasons. "If you can't convince them, confuse them" (the readers), is a time tested tactic.

the tactic seems to be 'put out the lie first'...it reaches far more people. the corrections later don't reach that many people, and then there's a section of people who don't believe corrections as they think they are coerced corrections and part of conspiracy.

the initial lie is a powerful one. The other guy is now having to spend energy defending/correcting, than going forward with their narrative.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 30 Aug 2017 20:19

Aditya_V wrote:Ok I have figured this out, the Value of currency not come is ~ 831.5 Billion rupees or Rs. 83,150 Crore. If all 15.28 Lakh crore of currency received is genuine and not fake. Based on FICN Aldready detected this could increase by a few Thousand Crore

Going through the Curreny Management one can note as Of Mar 16, Old 500 and Old 1000 Notes worth 7854 and 6326 Billion= Rs. 14,180 Billion respectively. During 2016-17 Indent and Suplly of old 500 and 1000 notes were 2013 Million and 925 Million pieces respectively amounting to Rs. 1.9315 Billion. So Total SBN before Denomination was 16,111.5 Billion. Total SBN recived with some of it Still to be checked for FICN ~15,280 (refer Note XI.6.2 Liabilities of the Financial Statement). Therefore Value of SBN not received is 16,111-15280= Rs.831.5 Billion.

Bloody people Public anything without a simple read.

Are your calculations right?

If the outstanding amount was Rs. 15.44 lakh crore and Rs 15.28 lakh crore returned, then the amount not returned would be 15.44 - 15.28 = 0.16 lakh crore or about 16,000 crore.

The initial 15.44 lakh crore was official number, so can't argue with that.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 30 Aug 2017 20:22

Don't we need to look at the money returning to banks in the context of number of shell companies unearthed.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 30 Aug 2017 20:30

Initial 15.44 lakh was never an official number

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 30 Aug 2017 20:32

It was based on 86.4% as 31 March 2016 based Fy15-16 report multiplied with RBI fortnightly statistics on currency in circulation.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 30 Aug 2017 20:36

Aditya_V wrote:Initial 15.44 lakh was never an official number

"According to a reply given in Rajya Sabha on December 2 by Minister of State for Finance Arjun Ram Meghwal, there were 1,716.5 crore pieces of 500 notes and 685.8 crore pieces of Rs. 1,000 notes in circulation. That amounted to a total of Rs. 15.44 lakh crore in value."
Source

Sounds very official to me.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 30 Aug 2017 20:58

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 30 Aug 2017 21:10

Aditya, it is not clear what you are talking about.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 30 Aug 2017 21:25

I think the money that did not come back = 15.44-15.28 = 0.16 lakh crores = 16,000 crores. This is the money that can be 'extinguished' from RBI books.

Am I right?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Aug 2017 21:31

RBI Annual Report: Only Rs 16,000 Cr Didn’t Return; Govt Spent Rs 8,000 Cr In Printing New Notes

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/rbi-annua ... -new-notes

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 30 Aug 2017 22:00

Most likely the real black money which were in Tons with Ambanis Tatas Birlas Adanis etc and BJP/Congress , Builders and all the real Big Folks with Black Money would have quietly converted to White with Blessing from RBI and Banks .....The 16000 Cr are just from Small business Man and small time folks with black money.

Would any one in India believe Big Business Houses , Politicians , Builders and other folks wont be holding huge cache of black money ?

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 30 Aug 2017 22:26

Remember the story that about 3 lakh crores worth of deposits are under IT scanner. Whatever tax is eventually recovered from there will be in addition to these 16,000 crores.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 30 Aug 2017 22:50

Ok may be I was wrong. 16000 crores has still not made it back.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 31 Aug 2017 00:33

At least, we can set to rest fears of large amount of notes with duplicate serial numbers and fake currency having returned without getting caught.

nam · Post by **nam** » 31 Aug 2017 01:06

Austin wrote:Most likely the real black money which were in Tons with Ambanis Tatas Birlas Adanis etc and BJP/Congress , Builders and all the real Big Folks with Black Money would have quietly converted to White with Blessing from RBI and Banks .....The 16000 Cr are just from Small business Man and small time folks with black money.

Would any one in India believe Big Business Houses , Politicians , Builders and other folks wont be holding huge cache of black money ?

How does unaccounted cash become white just by depositing in a bank? All the biggies have to explain their sudden "increase in sales". Biggies announce quarterly results as well. So there is a track record. More over, if they announce large "sales" this quarter and lower next quarter, wouldn't that hit their share price? Would they prefer to loose 10-15% of their value for some 2k-3k crores?
With monthly GST, even that would be difficult.

There was already a report on GoI sending notices to account holders with more than 80 lakhs deposited during Demo. So GoI has the data.
Ofcourse it needs to be seen how much effort GoI puts in catch these frauds, which will tell us how serious GoI is.

Regarding politicians, only kacha khiladis keep cash and create a trail to them. Biggies just call up their chamchas and everything gets done.

nam · Post by **nam** » 31 Aug 2017 01:11

People seems to have decided to put the money into banks and answer the IT( probably in the hope of dragging the case or they know someone who can do some deals for them).

People say money was converted to gold, real estate, stock.. for all of these the money has ended in banks. It has made it easier for GoI. Instead of asking 200 people .. now GoI will ask ONE jewellery shop to explain the sales.

GoI now has the data. So technically the lot which did not deposit 16k got away... the ones who deposited are in the net.

With Adhaar linked to bank accounts (and everything under the sun) .... there is no hiding.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 31 Aug 2017 02:19

True. But the benami accounts, the shell companies and the tax evaders must be established and deposits confiscated or made to pay tax before elections 2019. This has to result in a huge positive for Namo.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 31 Aug 2017 04:40

Austin wrote:Most likely the real black money which were in Tons with Ambanis Tatas Birlas Adanis etc and BJP/Congress , Builders and all the real Big Folks with Black Money would have quietly converted to White with Blessing from RBI and Banks .....The 16000 Cr are just from Small business Man and small time folks with black money.

Please don't post such nonsense here.