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Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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jpremnath
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby jpremnath » 02 Oct 2017 22:07

Deans wrote:
jpremnath wrote:i dont understand how is it the role of the CEA to tackle the NPA problem...his role is to advice the government on broader economic issues. Poring over balance sheets of banks was for the then RBI governor's job...even if it was his job, how do we know he hadn't flagged these issues to FM then?..
I mean, he did what was the right thing to do when he became RBI governor; he told the banks to stop kicking the NPA can down the road and get their shit together. The banks would have just glossed over these crony capitalist loans to essars, ambanis ,adanis et al for decades if they had a choice.


The CEA does not have to tackle NPA's, but he is expected to flag it if they present a risk to the economy - which they did. He does not claim
to have done so, in is interviews. I think we can all agree that NPA's arose in the UPA regime, due largely to crony capitalism. RR could well have commented on this but chose not to.
Even as RBI Gov, when he asked the banks to come clean on NPA's, he prevailed on the SC, not to `name and shame' the defaulters. As a result
at least a year was lost in acting against them by invoking the bankruptcy code.
Hence, the comments on NDA, mostly on matters outside his purview, were inappropriate, even if he felt the need to comment more on govt functioning, than any of his predecessors.

A central banker, when his views on a major govt policy (like DeMo)are solicited, is expected to be conservative and be a `devil's advocate',
pointing out all possible risks. That has been hyped by the media as `Rajan warned that Demo would be a disaster etc'. If RR really felt that
the policy was completely wrong, he could have resigned earlier - which would have truly given him the high moral ground and made him the
darling of the Cong/Liberal/Western crowd. His only actual criticism AFAIK, was that there would be a short term disruption and the
benefits are unknown, both of which are factually correct.


He did not claim to have flagged the NPA's because no one ever asked him if he did.Everyone here is constructing a narrative which they hope pin the entire economic malaise from NPAs on the only person who actually did something to tackle it. I dont see anyone ask what where the RBI governors before him did to check the NPA problem because the real reason why everyone is out for his blood is only because he made political statements while he was the governor(he should have been more careful in his position when talking to the media, i agree) and not for his actions as CEA(he was CEA only for 13 months).
And as far as i remember reading, it was the law ministry or the finance ministry which made that submission about defaulters in SC. But I stand ready to be corrected, but that was what i recall from then. There are elements in govt(babus and politicos) which sees things in grey when it comes to the defaulters. Did RR help mallya escape to london when he was under neck deep in trouble.? Do you think the intel agencies did not warn the govt of his chances of fleeing the country with the kind of diplomatic facilities he has??...You can claim no one in the Govt had a clue..but as everyone claim maybe it was the job of the then CEA to worry about it..Now we see all the tamasha in London courts where we are spending millions to supposedly 'bring him back'. This could have been avoided and no one realise how it makes our entire system look bad.
I am in no way trying to blame the govt for doing what they did when it comes to RR. They did what they had to do and what they are entitled to do as the captain of the ship. All i wanted to say is that It is not fair to try to demean a man who i feel was the right person at the right time who had all the ability and the best of intentions to do that job. RR and Govt has moved on and his 'short term' is the least of all our worries. BR is a forum where people come to discuss facts and reason and not emotion and hearsay, and i really hope we can all move on and discuss the real serious issues of our economy and its future in this radically changed circumstances which is what this thread is all about.

P.S: If people still want to diss RR, i suggest someone start and a thread named "How Raghuram Rajan single handedly derailed the economy"

Deans
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Deans » 03 Oct 2017 09:57

Premnath ji, I'm not trying to diss RR. I acknowledge his expertise on economic matters, as I studied in the same institution he did.
On NPA's, I was making the limited point that while he saw it fit to speak freely on intolerance, make in India etc he did not publicly talk
about NPA's until the Supreme court did so. As you suggest, he could have asked (as CEA) why RBI governors allowed NPA's to reach alarming
proportions and (when he was Governor) why the RBI nominees in banks were party to the approval of dubious loans.
I'm sure there were many others across parties, who can and should be held responsible for NPA and inaction against crooked promoters, but I limited my comments to RR, as that was what the original comment was about.


Philip
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Philip » 06 Oct 2017 05:17

YenS spot on.Pvt. industry is not keen on borrowing becos of high rates when compared with Intel. banks.I have a client who needs $3M for a project.Our lending rates are too high.Demon and GST annihilated investor confidence.Some Min I was told "said if you feel rest.
prices are too high after GST ,eat at home".Fine but it kills the rest. industry too.
I found a bill at a fav. cafe up by 50 bucks after GST for my usual order.

The sad fact is that the unaccounted cash that was in circulation was spent happily on consumer goods ,jewellery,etc.,and kept the economy chugging along even in the worst of times. Unless we abolish personal tax ,by nature we as a nation will try and cheat the govt. In
any case the tax base is so low when compared with the population.Now that there is a unified tax for all eco. activities ,GST, slabs for various items of consumption and services should be fxd. in keeping with a no personal tax policy.

Parties are already getting geared up for an early election prob. late 2018.There is no way in which the economy can
revive substantially unless interest rates for deposits are increased hugely and loan rates plummet! This is the equiv. of the govt. putting a couple of lakhs into my acct. But isn't that exactly what Mr.Modi promised? I was at his election meeting!

Prasad
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Prasad » 06 Oct 2017 08:37

Oh come on. Don't twist what Nirmala seetharaman said the way prestitutes did.

yensoy
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby yensoy » 06 Oct 2017 10:21

Philip wrote:YenS spot on.Pvt. industry is not keen on borrowing becos of high rates when compared with Intel. banks.I have a client who needs $3M for a project.Our lending rates are too high.Demon and GST annihilated investor confidence...

...Unless we abolish personal tax ,by nature we as a nation will try and cheat the govt. In
any case the tax base is so low when compared with the population.Now that there is a unified tax for all eco. activities ,GST, slabs for various items of consumption and services should be fxd. in keeping with a no personal tax policy.

Parties are already getting geared up for an early election prob. late 2018.There is no way in which the economy can
revive substantially unless interest rates for deposits are increased hugely and loan rates plummet! This is the equiv. of the govt. putting a couple of lakhs into my acct. But isn't that exactly what Mr.Modi promised? I was at his election meeting!


1. Income Tax will not be abolished because Income Tax is the only progressive tax in society. GST is regressive, in that the poorer people will pay more GST as a percentage of their income than rich people who tend to have higher savings, investment, payment for services and foreign expenses (travel, education).
2. There is no threat to Modi in 2019, because there is no worthy opposition to speak of. I believe that about a year before elections are to be scheduled, there will be a flood of government driven expenditure ostensibly for improving infrastructure or some such, and that will swing the vote in his favour. BTW, elections are won in villages, even if 100% of BRF goes against Modi one cannot rule out his victory as long as he gets the rural vote right.
3. GST related price growth will be temporary. If you feel your cafe is overcharging you, please vote with your feet. Pricing is based on what the market will bear, and not what the input costs are (by and large). When restaurants realize their clients will pay no more than what they were paying prior to GST, they will have to rein in prices (or adjust their menus - there are multiple ways of making this work).
4. Bank spreads are still too high but on the right track for sustainable lending to encourage entrepreneurs. More schemes are needed to encourage small entrepreneurship - small industry is the way forward - or at least reduce the risk factor. The big boys can borrow from the rest of the world. Focusing on NPAs effectively kills lending or places too high of a risk premium - IMHO government should swallow the risk premium to make capital available at low rates to bonafide small players.
5. The numbers being shown off - on both sides - are just numbers. NPAs have always been on banks' books, it is only now (culmination of efforts kicked off by RRR and carried forward) that they are being realized - in fact this was overdue and excising the devil of NPAs is the path forward. Likewise for growth numbers - demo and GST are hugely disruptive events, so change is to be expected.
6. The trillion dollar questions are (i) will the numbers eventually correct to a higher growth trajectory after say 2 quarters and (ii) will there be real job growth? If the answer is no to these, then we probably don't deserve anything better than a corruption ridden government, running huge fiscal and trade deficits, perennially declining rupee, lots of black money and a consumption driven economy. At least this government is trying to see if something different works for us.

pankajs
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 06 Oct 2017 10:29

^
on pt. 4 > Mudra scheme is where the GOI is assuming the risk premium on behalf of the borrowers i.e. with lending without collateral at lower rates.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 07 Oct 2017 02:25

http://www.opindia.com/2017/10/banks-provide-shocking-data-relating-to-demonetization-activities-of-suspected-shell-companies/

Quite a bit of info here.
However, from 9th November, 2016 i.e. after the announcement of demonetization, till the date of their being struck off, these companies had altogether deposited a huge amount of Rs. 4,573.87 crore in their accounts and withdrawn an equally large amount of Rs 4,552 crore.


But if these are shell companies, are the directors names on the companies correct? Can they be traced? If the directors cannot be traced and made to pay up, the money is gone as it's already withdrawn.

I am guessing these accounts had KYC info and aadhar info of the owner or else the withdrawal wouldn't have been allowed. Can someone confirm this?

PS. In hind sight, BM holders actually depositing cash instead of foregoing their money seems to provide much needed insight into how these companies operate. Modi might still be able to recover the money and shut down such companies and individuals which would be a big win for him.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Katare » 07 Oct 2017 03:06

Deans wrote:Premnath ji, I'm not trying to diss RR. I acknowledge his expertise on economic matters, as I studied in the same institution he did.
On NPA's, I was making the limited point that while he saw it fit to speak freely on intolerance, make in India etc he did not publicly talk
about NPA's until the Supreme court did so
. As you suggest, he could have asked (as CEA) why RBI governors allowed NPA's to reach alarming
proportions and (when he was Governor) why the RBI nominees in banks were party to the approval of dubious loans.
I'm sure there were many others across parties, who can and should be held responsible for NPA and inaction against crooked promoters, but I limited my comments to RR, as that was what the original comment was about.


From what I know from reading stuff from last five years, he is the only person in recent memory who did anything about it. Media would only report the juicy and politically provocative stuff that does not mean he didn't publically talked about other stuff. A lot of research was done on the issue and a lot of consultative papers were issued and discussed with stakeholders and it was all reported in hardcore economic papers/channels. Unfortunately it never made it to ToI or Hindu headlines.

I think RR was too naïve in handling Indian media. Only way to handle Indian media without committing suicide is to not talk to it directly. Modi and Sonia both have practiced it for along time. Current RBI governor is doing the same.

Deans
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Deans » 07 Oct 2017 21:10

hanumadu wrote:http://www.opindia.com/2017/10/banks-provide-shocking-data-relating-to-demonetization-activities-of-suspected-shell-companies/

Quite a bit of info here.
However, from 9th November, 2016 i.e. after the announcement of demonetization, till the date of their being struck off, these companies had altogether deposited a huge amount of Rs. 4,573.87 crore in their accounts and withdrawn an equally large amount of Rs 4,552 crore.


But if these are shell companies, are the directors names on the companies correct? Can they be traced? If the directors cannot be traced and made to pay up, the money is gone as it's already withdrawn.


All such directors can and have been identified - over 4 lac in all in inactive shell companies. KYC norms for company directors (I am one - of a real company) are more stringent than individual bank accounts. As a starting point they are barred from any activity concerning their company. Most of these will be benami, but under the benami law they can be prosecuted and jailed, so many would rat on their bosses.

Deans
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Deans » 07 Oct 2017 21:27

Katare wrote:From what I know from reading stuff from last five years, he is the only person in recent memory who did anything about it. Media would only report the juicy and politically provocative stuff that does not mean he didn't publically talked about other stuff. A lot of research was done on the issue and a lot of consultative papers were issued and discussed with stakeholders and it was all reported in hardcore economic papers/channels. Unfortunately it never made it to ToI or Hindu headlines.

I think RR was too naïve in handling Indian media. Only way to handle Indian media without committing suicide is to not talk to it directly. Modi and Sonia both have practiced it for along time. Current RBI governor is doing the same.


What RR did on NPAs was to get the banks to acknowledge them. That was positive, but in my view, what was not done was the following:
- Understand why large write off took place from 2013-15 , when RR was governor and fix accountability.
- Probe role of RBI nominees on the boards who cleared loans each over 10,000 crore (take just the top 12 defaulters as an example).
- Recommend any corrective action to recover dues from any defaulting company.

His first public comments on NPA's reported in the press were only in 2016 and can be summed up in his article.
https://scroll.in/article/803432/raghuram-rajan-explains-the-fear-in-indias-banking-sector-and-tries-to-make-soothing-noises

I respectfully disagree on RR being naive in handling the media. He had rockstar status and had the Indian media eating out of his hands.
RR's biggest contribution in my view, was preventing the economy going into free fall in 2013-14 in the last year of UPA2, due to his actions and
credibility he enjoyed in the global finance community.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 07 Oct 2017 21:52

A company like Lanco has more than 40000 cr debt. Even with a debt/equity ratio of 80:20, Lanco must come up with 8,000 cr as equity. Where did it get such amounts from? I doubt it even generated such amounts as revenue let alone profits through out its operating history.

Deans
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Deans » 07 Oct 2017 22:02

Bhushan Steel (has anyone even heard of it) owes 47000 crore. It has an equity capital of 226 crore. Its revenues have never exceeded 15000 cr. No question has been asked of anyone in the banking industry as to why this loan was approved.

To put 47000 cr in perspective, The total farmer loan wavier amount in UP was some 32000 crore.

deejay
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby deejay » 07 Oct 2017 22:26

Deans wrote:Bhushan Steel (has anyone even heard of it) owes 47000 crore. It has an equity capital of 226 crore. Its revenues have never exceeded 15000 cr. No question has been asked of anyone in the banking industry as to why this loan was approved.

To put 47000 cr in perspective, The total farmer loan wavier amount in UP was some 32000 crore.


Yes I think the owners are some Singhals. Once the father died one brother got Bhushan Steel and the other brother got Bhushan Power. HQs in Delhi.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ShauryaT » 07 Oct 2017 22:28

Hence, extremely important that banking gets privatized. I have personal knowledge of how loans are sanctioned at the highest levels at public sector banks. Have seen things first hand. Nothing great, anyone with any business interests at any significant levels in India is exposed to these things.

Artha deals with wealth and power. The separation of wealth from power in a way that both cannot have undue influence on each other is a fundamental requirement. Strange in a nation with a codified history of such separation, we are unable to get our act together.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Deans » 08 Oct 2017 00:05

https://www.cleanmoney.gov.in/?q=content/clean-money-analysis
The info in the operation clean money portal is worth a read. It is the first time to my knowledge that GOI has put up such detailed data on
the action against against high value deposits.
Lengthy documents but worth a read (particularly status report)- its not a typically tedious govt report.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Subdas » 08 Oct 2017 18:27

Modiji's core vision is clean india. Both demo and gst are programs for the economy to run on clean money. Cash is dirty money and polutes the environment while digital is clean money. I remember what happened when the auto waĺlas were forced to switch to clean fuel. They were upnin arms. Their political masters were up in arms. But eventually they had to fall in line because at the end of the day they realised that clean is the way to go no matter what the cost of switch is. The same was the fate of computerisation of banks. Lots of resistance in the begining but at the end most see the merits of a clean er system

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Subdas » 08 Oct 2017 18:30

Modiji is a big believer of scale. He loves to integrate and scale. Bogh gst and demo will integrate the jnformal economy with the formal one thus creating a huge formal economy which will be kn top 3 soon.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 08 Oct 2017 19:39

Deans wrote:https://www.cleanmoney.gov.in/?q=content/clean-money-analysis
The info in the operation clean money portal is worth a read. It is the first time to my knowledge that GOI has put up such detailed data on
the action against against high value deposits.
Lengthy documents but worth a read (particularly status report)- its not a typically tedious govt report.


Code: Select all

Risk                                    Category Description                                                  Persons
High Risk                High risk issue with high Value at Risk (VaR)                          1.00 lakh
Medium Risk            High risk issue with low Value at Risk (VaR)                           7.54 lakh


These must be the 3 lakh crore suspected black money holders that Modi mentioned once.

yensoy
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby yensoy » 08 Oct 2017 19:48

^^^^ Integration and scaling is a great corporate ploy to grow; however it usually is accompanied by job redundancies/layoffs because obviously one of the benefits of integration is to remove duplication and raise productivity.

Unfortunately, all the strong medicines administered by Modi are effectively job-negative not merely job-neutral. The truck which used to take 15 days to ply across the country now takes 7 - the trucker just had his working hours reduced by half. Not saying that this is not a long overdue improvement (it very much is) but it is hurting jobs. All the inefficiencies in our society, the corruption, the "agents" and touts who would facilitate the process, the various levels of middlemen between the farmer and consumer - all these were somehow employing people; and as we take down this ridiculous inefficiency, we will be depriving people of livelihood (regardless of the morality).

This must change and jobs need to grow.

Deans
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Deans » 08 Oct 2017 22:26

yensoy wrote:^^^^ Integration and scaling is a great corporate ploy to grow; however it usually is accompanied by job redundancies/layoffs because obviously one of the benefits of integration is to remove duplication and raise productivity.

Unfortunately, all the strong medicines administered by Modi are effectively job-negative not merely job-neutral. The truck which used to take 15 days to ply across the country now takes 7 - the trucker just had his working hours reduced by half. Not saying that this is not a long overdue improvement (it very much is) but it is hurting jobs. All the inefficiencies in our society, the corruption, the "agents" and touts who would facilitate the process, the various levels of middlemen between the farmer and consumer - all these were somehow employing people; and as we take down this ridiculous inefficiency, we will be depriving people of livelihood (regardless of the morality).

This must change and jobs need to grow.


Jobs will have to come from manufacturing and the reasons people do not want to start factories is exactly what you mention - transport cost is
disproportionately high, agents and inspectors have to be bribed at every stage, too many middlemen, power is interrupted etc. We need a scenario where the truck driver does 2 trips of 7 days each, has a day off and earns more, while the middlemen become factory workers.
Just logistics savings and uninterrupted power can cut a manufacturers cost by 5% That is usually enough to be cost competitive and stimulate a increase in manufacturing capacity (which in turn brings scale to ancillary suppliers, driving down their cost).

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby VKumar » 09 Oct 2017 00:26

Maximum potential for jobs are in service sector. Youngsters prefer to work in clean, air conditioned environments of malls, restaurants, hotels, hospitals etc. Unless work environments in manufacturing become similar to service sectors, the manufacturing sector will be second to service sector in attracting youngsters.

Within manufacturing, maximum potential is for food processing, which has an added advantage of being able to provide jobs in rural areas, where the raw material I.e. Agricultural produce is available. But to really exploit this sector, infrastructure in roads, rail, reliable power supply, cold and ambient warehouses and logistics.

I suggested to Ms. Har Simran Kaur that a campaign to make processed foods popular should be taken up and she received this suggestion very positively. Soon we can expect to see TV ads etc on this topic.

Acceptance of processed foods will create demand that is much required.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby vijayk » 09 Oct 2017 05:42

yensoy wrote:^^^^ Integration and scaling is a great corporate ploy to grow; however it usually is accompanied by job redundancies/layoffs because obviously one of the benefits of integration is to remove duplication and raise productivity.

Unfortunately, all the strong medicines administered by Modi are effectively job-negative not merely job-neutral. The truck which used to take 15 days to ply across the country now takes 7 - the trucker just had his working hours reduced by half. Not saying that this is not a long overdue improvement (it very much is) but it is hurting jobs. All the inefficiencies in our society, the corruption, the "agents" and touts who would facilitate the process, the various levels of middlemen between the farmer and consumer - all these were somehow employing people; and as we take down this ridiculous inefficiency, we will be depriving people of livelihood (regardless of the morality).

This must change and jobs need to grow.

that will improve bottomline of companies which will help them do more business.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Subdas » 09 Oct 2017 10:32

In efficient jobs cannot be sustained. Who will foot this inefficiency? The customer will feel the pain and eventually will opt for a system where jobs are efficient. This exactly what has happened in sector after sector - from telecom to banking to IT. Taking the example of trucker he should demand more hourly rate and do more trips to earn more.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby yensoy » 09 Oct 2017 10:45

Subdas wrote:In efficient jobs cannot be sustained. Who will foot this inefficiency? The customer will feel the pain and eventually will opt for a system where jobs are efficient. This exactly what has happened in sector after sector - from telecom to banking to IT. Taking the example of trucker he should demand more hourly rate and do more trips to earn more.


We have been footing this inefficiency for many decades now, and this inefficiency has led to millions of people having some source of income regardless of the absolute lack of value they add to society. While we all want efficiency, the fact is that these millions of people and their families can't be wished away. They will be the biggest noise and trouble makers if their lifeline is cut off, and they will start affecting electoral outcomes - so it is super important that the government has a plan to create productive jobs and other sources of income to keep these people and/or their children gainfully employed and out of trouble.

Please don't interpret the above to mean that beneficiaries of corruption should be identified and made whole - that is not the point here. The point is that a rising tide lifts all boats, so the more jobs there are in the economy, the better it will be for those who wish to switch "careers" from agent/tout/fixer/middleman to an entrepreneur or employee, i.e. someone who adds value. At least they will have a path ahead for their children.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 09 Oct 2017 21:42

Economics nobel prize winner supported DeMo

Image

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby vijayk » 09 Oct 2017 22:41

Efficiency is not problem here. The reason all manufacturing jobs will disappear and Chinese imports will galore is because of inefficiency.
The problem is not anticipating how their policies are going to affect jobs/growth and take preemptive measures.

I was reading @thejaggi in Firstpost and Swarajyamag who was warning about it from Day one. No one is listening.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby yensoy » 10 Oct 2017 05:52

vijayk wrote:Efficiency is not problem here. The reason all manufacturing jobs will disappear and Chinese imports will galore is because of inefficiency.
The problem is not anticipating how their policies are going to affect jobs/growth and take preemptive measures.

I was reading @thejaggi in Firstpost and Swarajyamag who was warning about it from Day one. No one is listening.


Even if you are 100% efficient you won't beat the Chinese. Why? Because their infrastructure (land, building, some plant) costs are underwritten by the government, the pool of labour is trained/restrained by the government, they have the entire damn supply chain locked up and on top of it they give incentives in the form of kickbacks to exporters.

If your domestic shipping & logistics industry gets more efficient, it will equally benefit the Chinese.

Competing with the Chinese will have to be multi-pronged:
1. Duties, very much needed; or other roadblocks like labelling, standards, regulations etc - the same kind of medicine Chinese administer on the rest of the world (non-tariff barriers)
2. Heavy government incentives for industry, especially small players, to bear the burden of risk premium, employee training/welfare, and help with infrastructure (leasing space and facilities in industrial parks); this has to be managed very tightly else will become its own kingdom of corruption
3. Use the Chinese - any industry has a large product catalogue but following Pareto's principle 20% of the catalogue accounts for 80% of the sales. Make this 20% range - 80% volume in India, cost effectively. Import the long tail from China to build up the catalogue - when the product mix changes, adapt.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pgbhat » 10 Oct 2017 16:10

hanumadu wrote:Economics nobel prize winner supported DeMo

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DLtG7UiVwAA2puZ.jpg


There is more to it.
https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/796011969618780160


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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby V_Raman » 11 Oct 2017 13:09

I am getting the feeling that we have killed the golden goose with demon.

Manufacturing boat has sailed and no mass manufacturing will come to India. There is too much over capacity in the world.

I read somewhere that CONgress is perceived as more nationalistic than BJP by the western world due to their unwillingness to cooperate more with the powers that be. I think it was posted by ramana.

We are going to lose millions of jobs that existed in the unorganized sector and not replaceable with jobs in the organized sector. At the same time, entering an asset deflation period.

Again - this is my gut feel and might very well be wrong.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Oct 2017 13:25

THe Economy has remonitised and unorganised sector is back to cash, it is some of big crocodiles and thuer Benamis have been exposed. It is just 1 step in many. Congress was never nationalistic, we squandered gains by CHinese imports during UPA. AT that time there lots of trips by Indian purchasers to China to import. In the last few years many of these peeople have stopped travelling to China.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Kashi » 11 Oct 2017 13:37

Aditya_V wrote:Congress was never nationalistic, we squandered gains by CHinese imports during UPA. AT that time there lots of trips by Indian purchasers to China to import. In the last few years many of these peeople have stopped travelling to China.


And yet our trade imbalance with China has continued to grow. Of course, a large part of it maybe due to import of heavy machinery and construction equipment, but Chinese toys and similar stuff can still be seen all over the markets.

But how is this linked with demonetisation?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Oct 2017 14:00

My response to V raman Post saying informal sector is collapsed and due to Demonitisationt here is unemployment, infact this year Chinese imports have dropped.



In fact Historically, When UPA took over in 2004 imports from China were USD 4 Billion and 5% of Imports to 55 Billion Dollars at 11.3% of total trade. Our Total imports were USD 489 Billion that year. It was this rise in imports from 78 Billion USD in 2003-04 to USD 489 Billion in 2011-12 which has crashed the economy. Slowly our imports are now at about USD 384 Billion( yes oil prices play a part). But it will take a few years before we have set up to start make in India. Afterall factories and land acquisition, port infrastructure all take time.

Apr- jul 2017 has seen a huge surge im ports accross the board to USD 146 Billion, may be in anticiaptaion of GST related complications.

But trends are there that CHinese imports have now started a downward spiral.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby JayS » 11 Oct 2017 15:25

Aditya_V wrote:Slowly our imports are now at about USD 384 Billion( yes oil prices play a part). But it will take a few years before we have set up to start make in India. Afterall factories and land acquisition, port infrastructure all take time.


One key sector which was threatening to become even bigger component of import than oil was electronics. Luckily current government has seen the danger and there has been a good push for at least assembly in India for various electronic items. There has been huge increase in "Made in India" mobiles and TV units for example.

I have seen opinion from one expert in a forum I am part of, how its not that difficult as its generally made out to be, to cut-off China from electronics import by bringing in assembly completely in India and substitute components imported from Taiwan and other SE countries. Hopefully GOI is working in the same direction.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby nam » 11 Oct 2017 16:30

JayS wrote:
I have seen opinion from one expert in a forum I am part of, how its not that difficult as its generally made out to be, to cut-off China from electronics import by bringing in assembly completely in India and substitute components imported from Taiwan and other SE countries. Hopefully GOI is working in the same direction.


This is something I mentioned in one of the post. Chinese exports are dominated by electronics & electrical items. Some of the items in top 10 are stuff like heaters and ... headphones!

Chinis export 13-15 billion $ worth of headphones! How difficult is to produce headphones!

All we need to do is give prefential terms for electronics companies from Japan, Korea & Taiwan. And we can step on Chini toes.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby yensoy » 11 Oct 2017 20:36

nam wrote:Chinis export 13-15 billion $ worth of headphones! How difficult is to produce headphones!


Not sure of that number - below site says $3.6 billion/year
http://www.worldstopexports.com/headphones-exporters/

Disposable headphones given on long-distance flights are produced for under 1 yuan in China, often in prisons.
http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1269221/qantas-british-airways-headphones-linked-chinese-prison-labour
https://www.alibaba.com/showroom/disposable-airplane-airline-headphones.html

Around 1.5 billion passengers flying internationally. (Not sure how connecting passengers are counted, and how round-trips are counted)
http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2012-12-06-01.aspx

Even if half of them get disposable headphones, we are looking at 750 million of them, which is over 120 million $ assuming cheapest set. A small fraction of $3.6 billion but a decent number anyway.

Please carry your own headphones while flying. Besides the environmental benefit and keeping money away from Chinese prison labour, good headphones sound much better than the disposable crap. I carry my own and make sure my family does.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 11 Oct 2017 21:53

JayS wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:Slowly our imports are now at about USD 384 Billion( yes oil prices play a part). But it will take a few years before we have set up to start make in India. Afterall factories and land acquisition, port infrastructure all take time.


One key sector which was threatening to become even bigger component of import than oil was electronics. Luckily current government has seen the danger and there has been a good push for at least assembly in India for various electronic items. There has been huge increase in "Made in India" mobiles and TV units for example.

I have seen opinion from one expert in a forum I am part of, how its not that difficult as its generally made out to be, to cut-off China from electronics import by bringing in assembly completely in India and substitute components imported from Taiwan and other SE countries. Hopefully GOI is working in the same direction.


I am glad the current govt has a sense of urgency in this regard. The situation was looking catastrophic with electronics imports itself threatening to touch 300 billion. We have a net zero import policy on electronics by 2020(or is 2022).

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby nam » 12 Oct 2017 01:09

yensoy wrote:
nam wrote:Chinis export 13-15 billion $ worth of headphones! How difficult is to produce headphones!


Not sure of that number - below site says $3.6 billion/year
http://www.worldstopexports.com/headphones-exporters/



I may have got the numbers wrong, however heaphones & heaters are on the top 10 things Chini export.

We need to do some Japanese, Korean and Tiawanese A** ki*** and get them to set up shops here. They would want to keep Chini "busy" on western front. In return they set up shop here.

Bullet train is a perfect example, where japan is going to do a "Suzuki". we get the jobs, Japanese get the scale to compete with Chinis.

Our top export is Petroleum products and gold/jewellery. Two most volatile products. We need to change our export portfolio and step on Chini toes.

This is the only way to grow and create jobs.
Last edited by nam on 12 Oct 2017 01:15, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby disha » 12 Oct 2017 01:14

V_Raman wrote:We are going to lose millions of jobs that existed in the unorganized sector and not replaceable with jobs in the organized sector. At the same time, entering an asset deflation period.

Again - this is my gut feel and might very well be wrong.


You are very wrong. Maybe you need to ensure that your gut is in the right place.


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