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Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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SaraLax
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby SaraLax » 30 May 2017 16:43

Gus wrote:Bank accounts have kyc stuff and it is not possible to just easily disappear...maybe a few folks but on a mass scale?

The only way mass scale fraud happened in demo was with collusion of bankers.


Let me tell you a recent tale. I have a salary a/c in one of the xBI subsidary banks and then my company shifted to some other bank for salary a/c's and i too went down that route. I kept some 5K odd ruppees in this older savings bank a/c and never touched it. But i periodically log-in to take note of the 4% Savings Bank interest that accumulates at half-yearly period and then pay the tax for the same when filing income tax returns. Some 2 or 3 months before - i got a letter stating that i had to provide my KYC again for this account and that i had to go to the branch for the same. I kept postponing it due to lack of time and unknown to me - my Bank Account got temporarily de-activated. I got to know about this after one of my colleagues also had his a/c locked up. So i went to show my KYC & got the a/c re-activated. I learnt from one of my friends who is a bank manager .. that since DeMo - the RBI had asked dormant or low-frequency-usage bank a/c's to be de-activated until the customer comes with his KYC detail to make the a/c active again. So i was asked to put some money into this a/c periodically and also take some money out via ATM at other times - rather than just login to check the amount in the a/c !.

This month - my landlord suffered a similar issue with his IOB a/c at a Chennai branch. My NEFT/IMPS transactions to pay house rent into his a/c failed 3 consecutive times and i reported it to him. He called up his branch manager and was informed that since only credits were happening into this a/c - the bank had to follow recent guidelines (from RBI i guess or if not from bank's top management) and thus de-activated the a/c and would only re-activate it if proper KYC is provided by the customer !!.

I guess this way .. any savings bank a/c with one-sided usage or very-low-frequency-usage (being misused for conducting identity-less benami transactions or so) and even active a/c's that raise suspicions of black money transactions can be de-activated and the customer made to come to the bank branch with proper KYC and get the same re-activated !!. This would help dig out further bank a/c's that appear suspicious in one way or the other from perspective of black money. It surely is a hassle for the common man but the bank employees are very cagey in indicating the real reason for this requests for KYC i.e to find if a suspicious a/c is being used for black money or not.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby James » 30 May 2017 17:09

^ There are 2 separate issue here: one is related to inoperative or dormant accounts. IIRC, dormant accounts are those where there is no customer initiated transaction for more than 2 years. The key here is customer initiated. So interest credit in savings account is not considered as customer initiated. Dormant accounts are not allowed to operated unless you visit the branch again and request them to re-operationalise the account.

The other part is resubmission of KYC dox. Banks are supposed to classify their customers internally into 3 risk categories - high, medium and low, based on customer business, level of cash trasanactions etc. this is largely on the basis of perceived AML risk. For high risk category, banks are supposed to collect KYC dox again once every 2 years. IIRC, it is 8 years and 10 years respectively for medium and low risk categories. This is why banks ask for KYC dox again. This is a RBI guideline, banks do not have much leeway, except in how they decide on the categorization into high, medium and low risk buckets.


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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Patni » 31 May 2017 13:19

Negative effects of note ban gone, India to clock 7.5% growth in FY'17: Moody's

MUMBAI: The negative impact of demonetisation exercise may have been neutralised on account of the positive impact of UP elections and the economy may post a better-than-expected 7.5 per cent growth in FY'17, says a report by global ratings firm subsidiary Moody's Investor service.

"The negative impact of last year's demonetisation on the economy has been limited in size and duration," said a report by Moody's Investor Service.

"The ruling BJP's victory in the Uttar Pradesh state elections indicates that the government has remained politically popular despite the demonetisation exercise," it said.

The economy will grow 7.5 per cent in fiscal year 2017 and 7.7 per cent in fiscal year 2018, according to the forecast by Moody's Investor Service. This translates into 7.2 per cent growth in calendar year 2017 and 7.7 per cent in 2018. "Overall, we continue to believe that economic growth will gradually accelerate to around 8 per cent over the next three to four years"

The government has been successful in pushing through several key reforms including liberalisation of foreign direct investment rules in a number of key sectors, including defense, railway infrastructure, civil aviation and insurance; the Direct Benefit Transfer scheme for food; fertilizer and kerosene subsidies; the goods and service tax, which is expected to come into effect in July, besides the national bankruptcy code. Together these will help reduce inefficiencies and improve trend growth over the long run.

But persistent banking sector weakness from a high proportion of delinquent loans on bank balance sheets is expected to weigh on growth. If not resolved, it would constrain credit for investment related activity, it said.

The inflation rate has steadily declined to 3 per cent as of April due to weaker food price inflation. Moody's expects inflation rate to rise to around 5 per cent by the end of this year once the effect of this temporary factor fades.

The Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold the policy "repo" rate steady, holding a neutral stance in this growth environment. Private sector investment has remained weak despite progress on reforms, suggesting that some hurdles to investment remain binding in many cases.


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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dipanker » 31 May 2017 21:53

Economic Growth Slows To Lowest In More Than 2 Years: 10 Points

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/economic ... eststories

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ShauryaT » 31 May 2017 22:49

^Someone in this government better show the END result benefits of demonetization. Jaitley proclaiming 90 lac more "potential" income tax filings needs to translate to first the number of those who actually file and then the net numbers yielded from these mythical accounts as of now. The net effect has to translate to a higher number from direct taxes sufficient enough to offset the presumed transitory effects of demonetization. Did this government ever release the numbers yielded from amnesty 2 or did they have some counting problem even there? They are still counting the returned notes right?

Good intent and a willingness to work hard are needed but not sufficient by themselves for what constitutes good policy. When MMS was elected in 2004, someone was telling me but he is honest and my response was personal honesty alone is not good enough for what India needs. Same response here, good intent alone is not enough. The intent of policy is not in question, the policy adopted is. Would be happy to be proven wrong but as time goes by my fears on the soundness of this action are turning to be true and worse - even if it is hard to prove demonetization is directly responsible for the loss of growth - especially in the private sector, which seems to be in crisis. Industrial growth was estimated to be at 9% for Q4, Manufacturing growth was expected to be 12%, it is at 5.3%. Construction is at negative growth. WTF happenned? Were it not for government spending and good monsoons, we would be in ape shit. It is best this government stops talking of demonetization and move on. Did not expect this type of a drop in Q4. Its sole focus now should be to revive private sector investment and jobs. If demonetization was primarily a political step, then I have nothing to say on it.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 31 May 2017 23:32

Many predicted less than 5% growth. 6.1% is very good. There is 5 lakh crore less currency in circulation than it otherwise would have been. That alone is a good reason for DeMo.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Bart S » 31 May 2017 23:54

ShauryaT wrote:Construction is at negative growth. WTF happenned?


There was a huge real estate bubble fuelled by black money and the builder politician nexus. Demonetization combined with the long awaited Real Estate Regulation Act put a lid on this bullshit and it is trending towards a buyers market now. The segment will pick up again as middle class people finally afford homes and buy them legally.

So what happened is that a lot of corrupt people got their comeuppance.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 01 Jun 2017 02:19

hanumadu wrote:Many predicted less than 5% growth. 6.1% is very good. There is 5 lakh crore less currency in circulation than it otherwise would have been. That alone is a good reason for DeMo.

6.1% growth in Q4 2016-17 after growth in Q4 2015-16 was revised up from 7.9% to >8% . And full year 2016-17 GDP at 7.1% afrer GDP growth for 2015-16 full year was revised up from 7.6% to 8.0% . Along with these figures, CSO also raised final GDP figures for the last FOUR fiscal years (a one time exercise related to change of base year for CPI/WPI/IIP data).

There's therefore a significant statistical artifact in these numbers.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ragupta » 01 Jun 2017 03:20

Bart S wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:Construction is at negative growth. WTF happenned?


There was a huge real estate bubble fuelled by black money and the builder politician nexus. Demonetization combined with the long awaited Real Estate Regulation Act put a lid on this bullshit and it is trending towards a buyers market now. The segment will pick up again as middle class people finally afford homes and buy them legally.

So what happened is that a lot of corrupt people got their comeuppance.


Real estate bubble needs to be busted. Most corrupt people had parked their money in real estate. Still there is a huge gap between official registered price and Market price. There was cartelization in Real estate, long holding capability, use of one project money to start many others, delay in handing over the assets, using the money without paying any returns. All this needs to be broken and fixed. RERA, Benami act, demonitization, squeeze on cash, direct deposit, epayments all this will chip away at this evil. Still there is lot to do, these people have power to sustain it for few years.

Even now, there are people ready to pay Crs in black for real estate.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ragupta » 01 Jun 2017 03:22


Yagnasri
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Yagnasri » 01 Jun 2017 09:38

In Mumbai, there are few buyers at the present prices but no one is reducing prices openly for the fear of having further reductions forced on them. But they are giving free parking space, free furnishings and so on to get the buyers. Prices are still illogically high here. Rents in Delhi have fallen very heavily. I am told even the prices also.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kvraghav » 01 Jun 2017 09:53

Same thing in Bangalore. Checked 99 acres graph and some localities have flat price graph from 2012 which indicates no one wants to reduce prices.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Bart S » 01 Jun 2017 11:31

^ That is the 'list prices' that are static which again points to cartelization still existing instead of a free market. If one is genuinely interested in buying and willing to negotiate, there are deep discounts to be had.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby alexis » 06 Jun 2017 09:48

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/j6FWY6u ... nding.html

Some help needs to be provided to rural India

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Yagnasri » 06 Jun 2017 10:06

Not really true. Big banks do not want to do rural lending and small size loans. That is the main problem.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Schmidt » 06 Jun 2017 10:43

RBI is yet to reveal the actual quantum of funds deposited after demo exercise

They asked for time till Mar 31st , and now we are well past that date

The only reason could be that they got back more than what they thought was in circulation

If that is indeed the case , it would make a laughing stock out of the RBI and the entire banking system as well as previous govts at the Centre

It would raise serious doubts about the money supply in the market all along and whether there was any suppression of information relating to the M1 money supply ( currency notes printed and in circulation and bank deposits )

They have had ample time to check and double check their figures by now , god knows what they are waiting for to release the figures

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby vish_mulay » 06 Jun 2017 10:52

deleting unsubstantiated claims I heard. My apologies moderators.
Last edited by vish_mulay on 06 Jun 2017 13:36, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 06 Jun 2017 11:29

"XYZ told me <insert some incredible claim>. Very damaging onlee. I'll only trust the authorities otherwise if they release some info. <insert even more outlandish claims>"

Why are you using this forum for such rubbish ? Go find another place and post such CTs there. Posters have a responsibility here. This is BRF, and this isn't the nukkad thread. You don't just get to post whatever comes to mind without a thought to the consequences of your claims, imagining the admins clean up behind you.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Marten » 06 Jun 2017 11:31

vish_mulay wrote:<SNIPPED>

Best not to discuss it if it is unsubstantiated. There were rumors of CIC being much more than RBI realized or was tracking. I'm not sure the mechanisms in place are adequate even now. Hopefully they will introduce new notes every 5 years and flush out all fake (or legally double printed) currency in 15 years.
Sorry Suraj, saw your post late. Please delete this post if required.

Latest Money Supply report here.
Last edited by Marten on 06 Jun 2017 15:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Jun 2017 12:22

Marten wrote:
vish_mulay wrote:my dhobiwalas uncles 3rd cousin works for RBI. Apparently, they have got way more than what they were anticipating (north of 22K C) and had lot of security breach issues which they are not willing to talk. If truth comes out it will be very damaging to the economy and peoples trust in central institutions. Obliviously, this could just another rumour (I am taking it with badli full of salt) and I will only trust when the authorities release some info. there is an issue of doubling of currency and no one knows weather they are fake or someone at printing press used die twice!

Best not to discuss it if it is unsubstantiated. There were rumors of CIC being much more than RBI realized or was tracking. I'm not sure the mechanisms in place are adequate even now. Hopefully they will introduce new notes every 5 years and flush out all fake (or legally double printed) currency in 15 years.
Sorry Suraj, saw your post late. Please delete this post if required.

Latest Money Supply report here.


No need to pull out currency every 5 years, reason why Pakistan could print identical fakes were when UPA-1 came to power, i) The plates in the Government Authorized printer where disposed off as "scrapping and handed" intact to Pakistan ii) Someone gave them all the sources for the ink to Paper iii) RBI reprinted the same series currency again and again. That is how they could litereally print the same currency. Succh pliant and good neighbors UPA-1 weren't they?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Schmidt » 06 Jun 2017 12:46

Best not to discuss it if it is unsubstantiated. There were rumors of CIC being much more than RBI realized or was tracking. I'm not sure the mechanisms in place are adequate even now. Hopefully they will introduce new notes every 5 years and flush out all fake (or legally double printed) currency in 15 years.
Sorry Suraj, saw your post late. Please delete this post if required.

Latest Money Supply report here.[/quote]
------------------------------------------------------------
^^^^^

Went through the table in your post

The M1 ( i) Currency with the Public + ii) Demand Deposits with Banks ) has gone up from 2.83 lakh crores in May 2016 to 26.74 lakh crores in May 2017

While the Time deposits have shot up from 8.12 lakh ( 12.49 Billion USD ) crores to 101.49 lakhcrores ( that is 1561 Billion USD ) !!!


I think this could only be cash that was returned due to demo deposited as Time deposits to evade notice

But still , the numbers are astounding - am I making a mistake somewhere ?

I can't believe the govt as actually increased the money supply after crying from the rooftops about going cashless and digital economy etc

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Austin » 06 Jun 2017 12:49

I wonder if the bumped up money supply will cause a spike in Inflation and lower the purchasing power of common man ?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby James » 06 Jun 2017 19:07

Schmidt wrote:Best not to discuss it if it is unsubstantiated. There were rumors of CIC being much more than RBI realized or was tracking. I'm not sure the mechanisms in place are adequate even now. Hopefully they will introduce new notes every 5 years and flush out all fake (or legally double printed) currency in 15 years.
Sorry Suraj, saw your post late. Please delete this post if required.

Latest Money Supply report here.

------------------------------------------------------------
^^^^^

Went through the table in your post

The M1 ( i) Currency with the Public + ii) Demand Deposits with Banks ) has gone up from 2.83 lakh crores in May 2016 to 26.74 lakh crores in May 2017

While the Time deposits have shot up from 8.12 lakh ( 12.49 Billion USD ) crores to 101.49 lakhcrores ( that is 1561 Billion USD ) !!!


I think this could only be cash that was returned due to demo deposited as Time deposits to evade notice

But still , the numbers are astounding - am I making a mistake somewhere ?

I can't believe the govt as actually increased the money supply after crying from the rooftops about going cashless and digital economy etc[/quote]

I think that you are comparing (i) the o/s as of May 2017 with (ii) the variation (difference) b/w 2016 and 2017.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Jun 2017 09:12

http://www.fakingnews.firstpost.com/pol ... ores-21337
RBI clerk counting money deposited during demonetisation confused whether he was at 12,654 Crores or 14,652 Crores

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Aditya_V » 08 Jun 2017 14:10

James wrote:
I think that you are comparing (i) the o/s as of May 2017 with (ii) the variation (difference) b/w 2016 and 2017.


That is correct it is only the variation amount and not the whole amount

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby jayasimha » 08 Jun 2017 17:25

(Old One, may be deleted if re-post)

http://www.incometaxindia.gov.in/lists/ ... 4-2017.pdf

Significant Achievements Towards Eliminating Domestic Black Money
New Delhi, 7th April, 2017

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Schmidt » 09 Jun 2017 11:44

Aditya_V wrote:
James wrote:
I think that you are comparing (i) the o/s as of May 2017 with (ii) the variation (difference) b/w 2016 and 2017.


That is correct it is only the variation amount and not the whole amount

-----------------------------------------------------------
^^^
Yes , the comparison was ( wrongly ) done with the YOY variation amounts


The only thing I can make out is that M1 is around 26 lakh crores as on Mar 31 and May 12 , 2017 ( with little change over the period ) , with 12 lakh cr with the public and demand deposits of 14 lakh crores with the banks

Need to see what were the figures on demo dates to determine what really came in due to demo

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ShauryaT » 14 Jun 2017 17:53

Modi’s DeMo Gambit Failed: Costs Exceed Gains And Farm Anger Is The Final Piece Of Evidence -- R Jagannathan

It is time for a mea culpa on demonetisation. This writer has been largely positive on the medium-to-long-term benefits of notebandi, as opposed to its short-term downsides, including a fall in gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates for one or two quarters. Now, and especially after the farmer agitations for loan waivers, I believe that the negative side of the ledger on demonetisation (DeMo) is larger than the positive. It has failed.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ShauryaT » 14 Jun 2017 17:58

The crops of wrath:
Demonetisation may not have hit agriculture production but it is the cause for the current unrest


The idea behind throwing these numbers is to emphasise a fact that should be obvious: What’s going on isn’t an ordinary “fire sale” limited to one or two commodities. This is not an isolated sugar or egg price crash, affecting only the cane grower in Muzaffarnagar and Sangli, or the layer poultry farmer of Namakkal. It is about a generalised fall in prices across agricultural commodities. We’ve entered deflation territory in farm produce, whose proximate trigger clearly has been demonetisation.

How? Well, much of the produce trading in India is cash-based and financed through a chain of mandi intermediaries, processors, input dealers and retailers. While difficult to establish, anecdotal reports suggest that this traditional agro-commercial capital was dealt a body blow by demonetisation. The collateral damage from it has been a haemorrhaging of liquidity from the markets. With the trade, which used to previously buy and stock up whenever prices fell, no longer active — it neither has the cash, nor the confidence now — the produce markets are suddenly without an important source of liquidity. True, this speculative capital was also a source of inflation, wherein, say, a 10 per cent production shortfall led to prices zooming 200 per cent. But today, it’s the opposite: A 10 per cent output increase engenders a 200 per cent price collapse.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby vinod » 14 Jun 2017 18:46

Come 2019, demonetisation will be the most talked about topic. Hence, any serious issues on any front will be somehow linked to demonetisation.

So, I take the farmer anger based on demonetisation with a pinch of salt. Like any story, there may be a certain little element of truth to it, but that's it.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Gus » 14 Jun 2017 19:07

It all depends on how general mood of the country is. If it stays optimistic as it is now..the 'demo caused disaster' will have no traction in 2019.

when is urjit patel supposed to reply to parliament committee?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby rohiths » 14 Jun 2017 19:59

Demonetization is done and dusted. It won't be a topic for 2019. Many people have already forgotten about it

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby vinod » 14 Jun 2017 20:04

rohiths wrote:Demonetization is done and dusted. It won't be a topic for 2019. Many people have already forgotten about it

Unlikely to be forgotten for election purposes! Demonetisation will be up there in the list of achievements of war against black money.

The fact that articles are being written trying to associate farmer agitation with demonetisation shows it is very much in the minds of people.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Gus » 14 Jun 2017 20:14

fact remains that outside of the echo chambers of lutyens-congress-commie-ngo ecosystem (need an acronym like the neta babu judge pandu acronym by rahul the Mehta), no allegation on modi is finding traction among both general public and voting public. They have tried everything imaginable to build a narrative - church attacks, intolerance, award wapsi, hindutva, cow issues, demo, 'growth decline', farmers, dalits, etc etc ..nothing has stopped the modi juggernaut except AAP in delhi and MGB in Bihar. AAP is done for already. Only MGB remains a viable threat.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Marten » 14 Jun 2017 22:19

Apologies for the OT:
The attack is not by topic -- the noise levels will be high enough to keep general junta irritable until they find a fault line that can be better exploited. Today on FB, I saw three or four groups that are based in the US, dedicated to the BIF. You name it, and the nutjobs are there! Khalistanis based in CA, EJ-Dalit activists, Commies! All find common cause in the destruction of the people's mandate. The new defining narrative, pushed even by Swarajya, is that DeMo did more bad than good! Which idiot would believe that? What were the goals? I find the entire line of thought reprehensible -- the junta have already indicated their preferences through the electoral process in multiple states!

Back on topic, I find 2k notes have sharply reduced in circulation. ATMs are carrying old 100 notes (meaning, not just fresh bundles). So there is traction in CIC. Another round of PinkDemo would be excellent in flushing out more rats who're hoarding. I'm now convinced that cunning CAs were managing entries for so much of the money that most (70%) of the black economy was in fact part of the white economy and only the double black incomes were being hidden from circulation. We as a people are not happy locking away money in unproductive areas, even at the risk of being caught! Value for Money is probably the best emotion to describe that action.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Sicanta » 14 Jun 2017 23:21


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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby KarthikSan » 15 Jun 2017 15:23

Swarajya was one of the card carrying cheerleaders for DeMo. What are they singing a different tune now? That is the "billion" dollar question.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Yagnasri » 15 Jun 2017 15:51

People have different ideas and express them. As long as they are honest they are entitled to their views and conclusions.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby rohiths » 15 Jun 2017 16:17

Yagnasri wrote:People have different ideas and express them. As long as they are honest they are entitled to their views and conclusions.

In India ideas and how they are expressed are always a function of the incentives/dis-incentives offered and the group they belong to. There is nothing called an honest opinion especially in media


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