Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 17 Dec 2016 00:16

CBDT sends 3,000 notices for high bank deposits post notes ban

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 044_1.html

Government's latest scheme to declare black money opens Saturday: Adhia

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 861_1.html

Black money holders get last chance to disclose till March 2017

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 565_1.html

RBI removes any charges on transactions upto Rs 1,000 settled on IMPS, USSD, UPI systems

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 776_1.html

RBI slashes MDR charges on transactions by upto Rs 2,000

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 193_1.html

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 17 Dec 2016 00:21

RBI cracks down on deposits exceeding Rs 2 lakh

http://www.financialexpress.com/economy ... ls/476132/

In yet another measure to curb black money and prevent illegal transactions, Reserve Bank of India on Friday announced that those who deposited over Rs 2 lakh after November 9 without Permanent Account Number (PAN), won't be able to operate the respective bank accounts.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Dec 2016 00:25

^
Freeze! I was expecting this after 31 Dec 2016 for accounts without KYC especially wrt co-op bank accounts but here it is. Theek hai.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Dec 2016 00:34

Someone had posted a while back that backdated FD had been created to dodge the DeMo.

The same step can be applied to these deposits too now that money is back in the banks. When the FD come for withdrawal hold back the payout till PAN/KYC is furnished. This will not impact KYC complaint depositors as before. As soon as the KYC is done, IT can compare the deposit with the income tax files and if every thing check out the money is free to be withdrawn.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 17 Dec 2016 00:49

To avoid jail time to any holdouts with newer denominations one more amnesty has been provided.
The latest amnesty scheme to declare black money is mostly directed towards hoardings done using newer bills. The amnesty for black money in older bills has already elapsed.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 17 Dec 2016 00:51

Picklu wrote:However many security features are introduced, at the end of the day, it is pretty useless for one simple reason - the common folks can not distinguish a fake from a real one beyond a point. Even colour photocopies are being passed around. Once a common fellow gets a fake, the job of the counterfeiters are done. Because even if identified at the later stage, the common fellow won't go to the bank, police or authority for he will loose that much money for a higher denomination note. Loosing Rs 500 or 1000 is no joke for most of the people in India.

Once on a trip, the driver of my car got a Rs 500 fake from a road side dhaba, he didn't realize at that point of time. The next time he tried to use it, the shop keeper identified the fake. The driver cursed his fate (but was quite nonchalant to my surprise) and used the fake note coolly in a petrol bunk where he purchased more than Rs 3000 worth of fuel. The way he treated the situation, he has faced it before and it is quite common among fellow drivers. I asked him why he did not approach authority and he said that the best case for him would be just to loose Rs 500, worst would be jail time.

Hence, adding more and more security feature will have marginal value. The only practical solution is to keep Rs 100 as the highest denomination since that will reduce the reward for the counterfeiters to below acceptable.

Another great reason to go cashless - no? No one will be conned into taking a counterfeit. I feel the govt should list all these reasons and run a campaign on TV/Radio/papers for going cashless.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 17 Dec 2016 00:54

Doesn't this give a pass to the political parties?

Political Parties Can Turn In Old Notes Without Tax Scrutiny

NEW DELHI:
The 500- and 1,000-rupee notes that were abolished last month can be deposited by political parties till December 30 in their bank accounts without having to pay any tax, said the Finance Ministry today.

A decades-old law exempts parties from taxes on income generated from a group of sources including donations by volunteers.

Election Commission officials and others have repeatedly highlighted that black money plays a huge role in elections and that parties attribute disproportionate parts of their funds to donations from volunteers.

ManishC · Post by **ManishC** » 17 Dec 2016 01:01

Political Parties are a big loophole, and likely the cause of failure of the entire exercise in at least the public eye.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Dec 2016 01:55

The political party route definitely needs to be fixed by changing that original act. There's no reason why a political contribution should ever be tax exempt.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 17 Dec 2016 02:49

shiv wrote:
My biggest concern now is my ATM/Debit card which comes with magnetic strip onlee. Can be spoofed. But my need to swipe debit card was low until demonetization after which I have used it for petrol. Will use Paytm henceforth.

Debit cards with chips have been out for a while now, please ask your bank to replace it with a chip (technical term EMV) debit card.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 17 Dec 2016 04:48

I think all the cards we use now are chip based.

I went to ATM yesterday. First time since DeMo. HDFC Bank in Goa. No one was there. Could not operate. Seemed some problem initially. Later I could. One person also was there waiting after I came out. Normal thing in a normal day. The only issue now is 2000 notes only are available. Is 500 notes were there, then there shall be no problem. Maybe 500s are over in that ATM? I do not know. I used the card to pay my restaurant bill before that. No problem there also.

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 17 Dec 2016 05:13

Used my card yesterday at 2 resteraunts in a Chennai suburb. Neither electricity nor landlines were restored yet after the cyclone in either. Worked instantly at one and after a couple of retries at the other place. Both were using GPRS connections for their card terminals.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 17 Dec 2016 06:53

This political party thingies looks like a classic bait, as soon as our BM heroes go this route everything will be seized and investigation launched.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 17 Dec 2016 11:29

Daily Dose of Coronary / Carotid artery block inducing headlines continue. This is plain psychops to give the bad guys sleepless nights.

"Sudden" Deposit of 2L Will Get You in Trouble

It's funny how modi and jaitley repeatedly said no questions will be asked for deposits up to 2.5L, what they meant was that many questions will be asked later.

Anyone who's never had more than Rs 2 lakh in his or her bank account but does so now should be worried.

Such accounts will be red-flagged and invite scrutiny by RBI, which may report them to the income-tax department to be investigated for possibly suspicious transactions as the government gears up for the next phase of its anti-black money campaign.

cdbatra · Post by **cdbatra** » 17 Dec 2016 13:10

Rishi Verma wrote:
maxratul wrote:X-posting from the poll thread

I have a take on this which I would like to share:
a. Namo is incorruptible ... 90%
b. Serious against black money offenders...10%
c. Man with a vision, building a modern economy...10%
Without going into the pros and cons or the completeness of the list.. This is first order thinking. At the very least the "lists" should be weighted. Going deeper it's time-varying, nonlinear, ...here once you assign the weights no further analysis is needed.

My take is like this :-

a. Namo is incorruptible ... 90%
b. Serious against black money offenders...10%
c. Man with a vision, building a modern economy...90%

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Dec 2016 13:44

banks are not putting much money in ATMs, they are using it to service own customers who are withdrawing upto 25k. I got some 500 notes today from hdfc. other people later in line got 100s too...they were giving some 1-2k in 500/100.

ATMs are mostly crowded by people who work 6 days a week do not get time off work or any time off is unpaid - security guards, construction workers, small shopkeepers, retail employees, delivery people, auto/taxi drivers, college students, BPO/KPO staff under strict timecard swiping, drivers, maids ... they might take sunday off but banks are closed on sundays.

the nature of economic activity means such people are more in tier1 cities. more time stressed, longer hours, more clock pressure. this might explain why scene is perceived as cooler in smaller towns.

the middle and rich class are getting cash in bulk from branches in weekdays or on saturday.

for a while might make sense to open banks on sundays and close one day in middle of week instead. this will allow this segment to get bulk cash and lessen the crowd in ATMs daily for their 2.5k ... guy who gets 16k wont be around for a month.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Dec 2016 14:30

there would be 1000s of such punters in purani dilli if someone cares to turn over every rock there and see what crawls out...

Chandigarh: The Enforcement Directorate has recovered about Rs 30 lakh cash and 2.5 kg gold from the premises of a prominent tailor in Punjab as part of its operation to unearth illegal cash.
The seizure comes three days after ED officials recovered Rs 2.19 crore cash from a cloth merchant in Mohali.
Acting on tip off, the sleuths of ED swooped down on the premises of Maharaja Tailor in Mohali (Punjab) and at sector 22 in Chandigarh here.
The seizure included Rs 18 lakh in Rs 2,000 denomination and while the rest was in Rs 100 and 50 denominations, ED official said on Saturday.
The ED sleuths said that they were verifying how the notes were exchanged and from whom, the owners of the shop bought the gold.
Officials were examining the bill books of the shop. The owners of the tailoring shop had allegedly bought 2.5 kg gold at a rate of Rs 44,000 per 10 gram after demonetisation, they said.
Investigations were underway, ED officials said.
Meanwhile, the Chandigarh Police had arrested a senior bank employee of a private bank in Mohali for allegedly providing new currency to cloth merchant Inderpal Mahajan on commission basis.
ED had seized Rs 2.19 crore including Rs 17.74 lakh in Rs 2,000 denomination, Rs 12,500 in Rs 500 denomination from the house of Mahajan on December 14.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 17 Dec 2016 14:36

In Goa, th bribe demands have not stopped. Our relationship based transacting means bribe amounts are deferred and oral agreements are being made to pay over a periods of time. There's is no honesty in paying taxes but great honour among thieves.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 17 Dec 2016 14:41

Singha wrote:there would be 1000s of such punters in purani dilli if someone cares to turn over every rock there and see what crawls out...

Chandigarh: The Enforcement Directorate has recovered about Rs 30 lakh cash and 2.5 kg gold from the premises of a prominent tailor in Punjab as part of its operation to unearth illegal cash.
The seizure comes three days after ED officials recovered Rs 2.19 crore cash from a cloth merchant in Mohali.
Acting on tip off, the sleuths of ED swooped down on the premises of Maharaja Tailor in Mohali (Punjab) and at sector 22 in Chandigarh here.
The seizure included Rs 18 lakh in Rs 2,000 denomination and while the rest was in Rs 100 and 50 denominations, ED official said on Saturday.
The ED sleuths said that they were verifying how the notes were exchanged and from whom, the owners of the shop bought the gold.
Officials were examining the bill books of the shop. The owners of the tailoring shop had allegedly bought 2.5 kg gold at a rate of Rs 44,000 per 10 gram after demonetisation, they said.
Investigations were underway, ED officials said.
Meanwhile, the Chandigarh Police had arrested a senior bank employee of a private bank in Mohali for allegedly providing new currency to cloth merchant Inderpal Mahajan on commission basis.
ED had seized Rs 2.19 crore including Rs 17.74 lakh in Rs 2,000 denomination, Rs 12,500 in Rs 500 denomination from the house of Mahajan on December 14.

FWIW, the government should let the small fry go for the time being and focus on the biggies. Will make people feel that something is working, not anger small traders, have a better return on input vs output, won't get bogged down in sheer numbers that can overwhelm the system.

Let the small guys fall in line out of fear when they see that even bigwigs are getting caught.

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 17 Dec 2016 14:43

After DEMO I have been using Paytm for almost all transactions. What prevents PayTM or other similar wallet providers such as Olamoney to surreptitiously add money into specific accounts and use that for various transactions (essentially create electronic black money) by essentially conjuring money out of thin air and adding to accounts.

Actually the better question I would ask is that how difficult would it be for PayTM to assume the role of RBI or start issuing its own cryptocurrency given that it can essentially move money between accounts using admin privileges without Government oversight. I mean things like credits and cashback points etc are essentially the wallet provider own internal currencies aren't they??

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 17 Dec 2016 14:44

I agree...they are going after the wrong fish.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 17 Dec 2016 15:19

Exemption for political parties is disconcerting to say the least.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 17 Dec 2016 15:28

All the Builders Lobby , Diamond Merchants you name it would now make their black money white via Political Parties ,it a carte blanche to all political parties.

It like closing all the windows of your home and then keeping the doors open.

EswarPrakash · Post by **EswarPrakash** » 17 Dec 2016 15:35

Austin wrote:All the Builders Lobby , Diamond Merchants you name it would now make their black money white via Political Parties ,it a carte blanche to all political parties.

It like closing all the windows of your home and then keeping the doors open.

But would they be very sure that they won't be audited and asked for source?

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 17 Dec 2016 16:09

Austin wrote:All the Builders Lobby , Diamond Merchants you name it would now make their black money white via Political Parties ,it a carte blanche to all political parties.

It like closing all the windows of your home and then keeping the doors open.

Before attacking the keyboard poohpoohing the gov announcement with childish thinking, Pls note who made the announcement. Neither Hasmukh Adhia nor NaMo are that stupid. Why love for Putin must mean hate for Modi...

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 17 Dec 2016 16:34

tandav wrote:After DEMO I have been using Paytm for almost all transactions. What prevents PayTM or other similar wallet providers such as Olamoney to surreptitiously add money into specific accounts and use that for various transactions (essentially create electronic black money) by essentially conjuring money out of thin air and adding to accounts.

Actually the better question I would ask is that how difficult would it be for PayTM to assume the role of RBI or start issuing its own cryptocurrency given that it can essentially move money between accounts using admin privileges without Government oversight. I mean things like credits and cashback points etc are essentially the wallet provider own internal currencies aren't they??

What prevented banks from doing all you just described above?

M_Joshi · Post by **M_Joshi** » 17 Dec 2016 16:52

tandav wrote: Actually the better question I would ask is that how difficult would it be for PayTM to assume the role of RBI or start issuing its own cryptocurrency given that it can essentially move money between accounts using admin privileges without Government oversight.

Nothing stops them. Similarly nothing stops you from starting your own currency "tandev currency". I can also start my "Joshi currency" and so on. Heck I'm going to be a gazillionaire in "Joshi currency"! But who will accept it? The value of any currency lies in the trust on that currency between the seller & the purchaser. If the seller is not sure about "tandev currency", then why would he sell you his goods?

One such experiment was done. Here's what any such successful currency value graph will look like. Much like the most "successful" alternate currency Bitcoin's:

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 17 Dec 2016 16:58

Dipanker wrote:Doesn't this give a pass to the political parties?

Political Parties Can Turn In Old Notes Without Tax Scrutiny

Wouldn't the party have to declare who their funders are? This pass is only for the money donated in white. And we should have no problem with that either. For any unaccounted money, they will have to prove the source which they cannot. I want to see which party wants to declare their black source.

"If it is a deposit in the account of a political party, they are exempt. But if it is deposited in individual's account then that information will come into our radar. If the individual is putting money in his own account, then we will get information," Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia said today about the old notes being deposited.

However, officials clarified that parties can be called upon to explain volunteer donations and must be able to provide details of the contributors. Parties are regularly accused of manufacturing lists of small volunteer donors to escape the scrutiny of tax officials. Contributions of up to 20,000 do not have to be accompanied by details of the giver, providing a major loophole to parties.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 17 Dec 2016 18:01

Raid at Maharaja Tailors - Chandigarh

The seizure comes three days after Enforcement Directorate officials recovered Rs 2.19 crore cash from a cloth merchant in Chandigarh. The Chandigarh Police had arrested a senior bank employee of a private bank in Mohali for allegedly providing new currency to cloth merchant Inderpal Mahajan on commission basis

In another News:
CBI arrests Senior Special Assistant - Sadananda Naika and Special Assistant A K Kavin - of cash department of RBI Bengaluru for illegal exchange of demonetised notes.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Dec 2016 19:05

from twitter ... FWIW

কাঞ্চন গুপ্ত Verified account ‏@KanchanGupta

কাঞ্চন গুপ্ত Retweeted Reuters India

Wrong. They would have to account for the funds. Just as anybody can deposit but will have to account for it.

and

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Dec 2016 19:11

This was the biggest area of concern from my point both in terms of people dependent on Agriculture and Food production. Thank God some semblance of normality prevails in this crucial sector. This news is such a relief.

http://www.financialexpress.com/india-n ... ar/476995/
No big demonetisation hit on sowing season; rabi area up 6% over last year

With just a couple of weeks left for the sowing season to end, it is clear that the rabi crop hasn’t taken a big hit due to demonetisation. Area sown till Friday was 51.9 million hectares, up 6% from the comparable period last year and marginally higher than what is described “normal” for the period.
Sowing of wheat, the crop that accounts for about half of the rabi area, recovered smartly over the last fortnight. While area under wheat was down 8% from normal on December 2, it was just 1% below normal on Friday, according to data released by the Union agriculture ministry.

Pulses area was up 9% on Friday, while that of oilseeds was down 1%.

Primus · Post by **Primus** » 17 Dec 2016 19:21

cdbatra wrote:
Rishi Verma wrote:
Without going into the pros and cons or the completeness of the list.. This is first order thinking. At the very least the "lists" should be weighted. Going deeper it's time-varying, nonlinear, ...here once you assign the weights no further analysis is needed.
My take is like this :-

a. Namo is incorruptible ... 90%
b. Serious against black money offenders...10%
c. Man with a vision, building a modern economy...90%

And mine has an additional point:

a. Namo is incorruptible ... 90%
b. Serious against black money offenders...90%
b1. Helpless and unable to prosecute big black money offenders......90%
c. Man with a vision, building a modern economy...90%

In the end, only time will tell. The man has survived almost 15 yrs of vilification and vendetta against him, of which 12 were truly brutal, would have finished off a lesser person.

Subdas · Post by **Subdas** » 17 Dec 2016 19:22

The industrial revolution was a great disruption that killed tons of jobs such as cobblers and tailors. I still remember a story in my English prose book that described the slow death of a cobbler in a german town post industrial revolution. That did not stop the revolution. The same will happen with this revolution. There will be deaths, loss of jobs, shutdown of trade but then it will be embraced by the majority because digital payment is such a improvement over paper payment.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 17 Dec 2016 19:31

kapilrdave wrote:
Dipanker wrote:Doesn't this give a pass to the political parties?

Political Parties Can Turn In Old Notes Without Tax Scrutiny
Wouldn't the party have to declare who their funders are? This pass is only for the money donated in white. And we should have no problem with that either. For any unaccounted money, they will have to prove the source which they cannot. I want to see which party wants to declare their black source.

Not if the amount is upto Rs 20,000, the laws allow anonymous donations up to Rs 20,000. A bit of creative accounting can break a large sum into chunk of 20,000 and attribute it to fictitious anonymous donors. There is room for corruption because of such laws.

tushar_m · Post by **tushar_m** » 17 Dec 2016 19:39

India's Economy Surpasses That Of Great Britain

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 17 Dec 2016 20:07

tushar_m wrote:India's Economy Surpasses That Of Great Britain

Yay. Take that, o Great sh1tstain.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Dec 2016 20:35

M_Joshi wrote:
tandav wrote: Actually the better question I would ask is that how difficult would it be for PayTM to assume the role of RBI or start issuing its own cryptocurrency given that it can essentially move money between accounts using admin privileges without Government oversight.
Nothing stops them. Similarly nothing stops you from starting your own currency "tandev currency". I can also start my "Joshi currency" and so on. Heck I'm going to be a gazillionaire in "Joshi currency"! But who will accept it? The value of any currency lies in the trust on that currency between the seller & the purchaser. If the seller is not sure about "tandev currency", then why would he sell you his goods?

There are two very important factors that come into play for a currency that makes it impossible for a private party to replace GOI mandated currency.

1. GOI's mandate that taxes be collected in Rupee. That ensures that there is a ready market and demand for rupee no matter what. No other currency can supplant this crucial role of the rupee without explicit GOI backing.
2. In the worst case, If the GOI ever gets into a hole where it needs to back the rupee with hard assets, it has the power to legislate and confiscate as much hard asset as it needs e.g taxing powers. This might seem scary but it is true and is implicitly understood/acknowledged by the everyone. Can payTM or Ambanis do that?

Small time currency like chits/bits do have their limited use but unless they are granted the backing that the Rupee has they can never hope to compete with it.

raj-senthil · Post by **raj-senthil** » 17 Dec 2016 22:44

Raids @ Kishore Bhajiawala yields 400 Cr plus...!

Surat: In the wake of vigilance by the IT and CBI over illegal transactions, raids by the IT sleuths have seen several crores of currency and gold and silver caught.

Latest, a raid in Surat today noon saw huge corruption by a big fish there. Financier Kishore Bhajiawala's house and offices were raided and it unearthed about 400 crores worth currency and gold. Several documents too were seized from his house and offices.

This is the biggest amount obtained in a single raid.

VKumar · Post by **VKumar** » 17 Dec 2016 22:51

Not to be outdone, TSP has demonetised notes os Rs. 10, 50, 100, 500 and 1000, on 1st December, in gradual fashion over next 1 year. Australia, in sympathy, today demonetised AD 100 notes.

Everyone follows India!

shynee · Post by **shynee** » 17 Dec 2016 23:01

Dipanker wrote:Doesn't this give a pass to the political parties?

Political Parties Can Turn In Old Notes Without Tax Scrutiny

This probably answer's your question.

Arun Jaitley clarifies that political parties enjoy no exemptions from demonetisation rule

On the controversy regarding tax scrutiny of political parties, Jaitley said, "This is a complete media creation and there are no changes made in the law in that regard. Has a single change made in the last two months or so or in the last two-and-a-half years with regard to taxation of political parties? The answer is 'No'."
"Nothing has been done, whatever was the existing system which has been existed for the last 15 years is continuing and if somebody creates a political party for the purposes channelising funds, then obviously the law will step in," he said.
"I implore all journalist friends to be fully outraged against any step of the government, if it is not against corruption. But in equal measure, I would also implore them to do adequate research before jumping the gun. Under Section 13A of the IT Act, 1961, political parties have to submit audited accounts, income and expenditure details and balance sheets," he said.
"Post demonetisation, no political party can accept donations in Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes since they were rendered illegal tenders. Any party doing so would be in violation of law. Just like anyone else, political parties can also deposit their cash held in the old currency in banks till the 30 December deadline provided they can satisfactorily explain the source of income and their books of accounts reflect the entries prior to 8 November," he added.
"And if there is any discrepancy in the books or records of political parties, they are as liable to be questioned by the Income Tax authorities as is anyone else. They enjoy no immunity whatsoever. There is no question of sparing anyone, and the political class is no exception. In fact, PM Modi is setting a new example of propriety in public life, by asking all MPs and MLAs to submit their bank account details post demonetisation. We would like to urge the other parties to do the same and prove their intentions against corruption," Jaitley said.