Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 22 Dec 2016 10:59

http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/koz ... 923357.ece

It started in Kerala the haven of green/red gangs.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 22 Dec 2016 10:59

Mean while..

* This district is noted for its peaceful community, and its expertise in any thing dealing with illegal money.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 22 Dec 2016 11:10

Next, it shall be MH wherein huge deposits said to have been in Co-Op Banks post-Nov 8th.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 22 Dec 2016 12:13

Duplicate

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 22 Dec 2016 12:13

It is my view, without factual data, that the BM issue is actually a lot of small fish combining to create this mess. With a large population like ours it's not too hard for this to happen.

2 days ago, a property dealer in North Goa , who was swearing daily about DEMO received his 2% commission for a multi crore deal in new notes. He was very pleased and had a smug smile on his face as he told me, see, things are back to normal and NaMo couldn't and can't stop this business. To him, this validates his earlier mode of doing business and with this validation he sees No incentives to change.

The cash money he received has gone back under his pillow and mattress and he has regained his swagger

I say, go after the big fish all you want but unless a examples are also made of the small fish, it's not going to drive home the message. Mango man does not identify and relate to big fish. That's a different pond, twice far removed from his/her own puddle.

Mango man needs to have exemplars in his own pond so s/he can relate to the example to be disincentivised against the pre DEMO ecosystem qnd incentivised/persuaded to join the transformation. "If it can happen to mango neighbour it can also appen to me. "

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 22 Dec 2016 12:25

I am trying to put a ball park floor on how much money cant be legally challenged as it gets deposited in KYC compliant account who are not paying Income tax as of now. Lets start with x crores bank accounts and so 0.4x are say women accounts which even if show 2 lakh deposited cant be questioned as within logical tax exempted limit. (2 lakh in 9 month).

The most recent and official stats on PMJDY bank accounts is from Pradhan Mantri Jan - Dhan Yojana

Pradhan Mantri Jan - Dhan Yojana
(Accounts Opened as on 14.12.2016)

(All Figures in Crores)
Bank Name RURAL URBAN TOTAL NO OF RUPAY CARDS AADHAAR SEEDED BALANCE IN ACCOUNTS % OF ZERO-BALANCE-ACCOUNTS
Public Sector Bank 11.52 9.18 20.70 16.29 11.76 57988.45 23.42
Regional Rural Bank 3.80 0.61 4.41 3.29 2.17 13411.12 20.04
Private Banks 0.52 0.35 0.86 0.81 0.37 2723.55 34.66
Total 15.84 10.14 25.98 20.40 14.30 74123.12 23.22
Disclaimer: Information is based upon the data as submitted by different banks/SLBCs

From above table we can see that average deposit in PMJDY accnts is 3,706/- (Excluding Zero balance accounts @23% ).

From RBI site in year 2015 we had 553 million debit cards. So I am assuming as of today the number maybe close to 700 million ( 30% growth in a year is very reasonable as its on conservative estimate. it had 44% growth in year 14-15).

So total savings bank accounts can be estimated to be 700 million + 160 million PMJDY accounts.

Now assuming
1) 15% of total accounts are dormant
2) 10% are near minimum balance ( < 1K )

about 525 million savings accounts and 200 million of which can in principal show 2,00,000/- deposited in cash during demonetisation. and 100 million PMJDY accounts each can show max 50,000/-

IMHO just watching how withdrawal happens in next 3 months from accounts will be key indicator of spotting surrogate/borrowed accounts.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 22 Dec 2016 12:30

disha wrote: To ban you will be to give you relief from your sorry existence. I personally think that instead of giving you relief., you should be parodied for what you are - a worthless troll.

If you have cared to notice the Black money thread in GDF (general discussion forum) you will find that post demonization some hundreds of kilos of gold and 3000 crores in notes have been caught. To give you a perspective., unaccounted wealth that will fund the entire ISRO's budget for 2016-2017 has been caught in the past 30 days.

Hence as I pointed out earlier you are pulling out whines from your musharraf. Every time you see success of Modi's Demo - you get butt hurt and you pull out a whine from your musharaf. We need some entertainment here sometimes and whipping you around may provide some!

The one one who is a paraody are people who have started to talk like chinese bots. 3000 crore's of unaccounted money in reality is not even half of black money that exist in one city of Kerala. The one who is parody is you and your utter reluctance to look at the other side of demo as well as half assed way it was done.

Isn't that a good thing? At least we will know where the most unaccounted wealth is generated. My issue will be if 10% of 15 lakh crore (1.5 lakh crore) does not even show up. That means I will have no clue on where it went and importantly how it went.

The government must earn out of this exercise a substantially amount over the cost of demo ( 1.34 lac crore's est.) . Anything less than that is unacceptable. Government should be able to catch atleast 50% of thieving thugs, which in reality they have no intention of doing. They are busy giving escape routes for 'their' people

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 22 Dec 2016 12:41

rahulm wrote:It is my view, without factual data, that the BM issue is actually a lot of small fish combining to create this mess. With a large population like ours it's not too hard for this to happen.

2 days ago, a property dealer in North Goa , who was swearing daily about DEMO received his 2% commission for a multi crore deal in new notes. He was very pleased and had a smug smile on his face as he told me, see, things are back to normal and NaMo couldn't and can't stop this business. To him, this validates his earlier mode of doing business and with this validation he sees No incentives to change.

The cash money he received has gone back under his pillow and mattress and he has regained his swagger

I say, go after the big fish all you want but unless a examples are also made of the small fish, it's not going to drive home the message. Mango man does not identify and relate to big fish. That's a different pond, twice far removed from his/her own puddle.

Mango man needs to have exemplars in his own pond so s/he can relate to the example to be disincentivised against the pre DEMO ecosystem qnd incentivised/persuaded to join the transformation. "If it can happen to mango neighbour it can also appen to me. "

Could someone please post the black money reporting email address again ? Then rahulm can report the above mentioned persons details to GoI so that he can be raided.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 22 Dec 2016 12:44

rahulm wrote:It is my view, without factual data, that the BM issue is actually a lot of small fish combining to create this mess. With a large population like ours it's not too hard for this to happen.

2 days ago, a property dealer in North Goa , who was swearing daily about DEMO received his 2% commission for a multi crore deal in new notes. He was very pleased and had a smug smile on his face as he told me, see, things are back to normal and NaMo couldn't and can't stop this business. To him, this validates his earlier mode of doing business and with this validation he sees No incentives to change.

The cash money he received has gone back under his pillow and mattress and he has regained his swagger

I say, go after the big fish all you want but unless a examples are also made of the small fish, it's not going to drive home the message. Mango man does not identify and relate to big fish. That's a different pond, twice far removed from his/her own puddle.

Mango man needs to have exemplars in his own pond so s/he can relate to the example to be disincentivised against the pre DEMO ecosystem qnd incentivised/persuaded to join the transformation. "If it can happen to mango neighbour it can also appen to me. "

This above is the reality - from small time mango sellers to doctors, to lawyers, to businessmen to small time real estate dealers to small time shop keepers, small time cops, babu's and ofcourse D level politician keep expectional amount of black money.

rahulm · Post by **rahulm** » 22 Dec 2016 12:55

Suraj, anyway I can PM you? Thanks

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Dec 2016 13:32

the really big fish always had lots of options and regularly exercised those options for converting black money. Let's say the group that has income of more than ₹10 crore per year never kept cash under pillows or under mattress or stashed it away in cavities. They used interbank currency speculation, overinvoicing exports, buying property outside India, participatory notes, bullion trade/speculation etc to routinely convert their black money and as a result any amount of IT raids will not find more than a few months of cash balance with this category.

those snared are more likely to be bribe takers, corrupt officials who unlike HNI cannot use official channels of conversion, politicians who are not savvy enough to utilize above avenues for conversion, traders who use cash for daily payments, employers who settle monthly bills through cash accruals keep aside some amount for emergencies, Private hospital owners in tier 2,3,4 towns who operate only in cash. Private clinics, eye clinics, dental clinics in tier 2,3,4 towns. Medical college, engineering college, promoters who receive heavy cash once a year and then lean season throughout rest of year. These are only types who will retain huge amounts of cash for contingency reasons and reluctance to make huge footprints in IT dept by making large bank deposits.

For many people in India keeping 10 lakhs of cash @ home is sensible and practical. For those non-ITvity folks with no corporate family health insurance, the hospitalization bills for any variety of emergency ailments can easily cross 16k daily. Liver failure, auto-immune dieseases, stroke patients in coma, patients on ventilator, end stage liver disease patients etc for which treatment is vague and requires constant hospitalization can easily go to range of 16k daily. No pvt hospitals will accomodate patients who are not willing to pay cash 'daily'. This has not changed inspite of all hype of digital payments. So how would they cope the present cash crunch without cash support if pvt hospitals frown on treatment of non-cash patients.

Unlike USA and EU where hospitals are truly corporate and operate only on medical insurance claims and credit cards rather than in cash. Their corruption is legal corruption where they are free to exaggerate their claims, but they do not demand cash from a dying man. In India things are much different.

Economy is not going to go digital just because PM asked people to go digital. All those who can accumulate cash are going to do so. They are going to search for safe spaces where they can operate only with cash. All those who find business no more profitable are going to change ways and resort to cash only operations. Those who can afford it will change base to Sri Lanka, Dubai, Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong and operate from there and oversee Indian operations from foreign hq. This will help them hedge their risks better. Cash is going to be hoarded and cash management is going to be highly intelligent. Cash is going to move into precious metals and commodities. Holding a bearer bond in commodity exchange in x commodity is going to be as good as say making ₹10 crore payment in cash.

success of demonitisation will be seen if post-demonitisation incentives are good enough to encourage people to remain in the economy instead of shifting out of it. If incentives and IT reforms can go parallel then this demonitisation effort can be claimed as success. But if intent is to go digital henceforth without making any tax reforms and tax corruption then it is going to result in economic contraction and shifting of capital. So the success or failure of this exercise is yet to be decided. Just a ramble, fwiw.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 22 Dec 2016 13:56

Was in Tirupati on Monday and Tuesday on a family pilgrimage. On Tuesday went to the Padmavati Thayar temple in Tiruchanoor. All of us deposited our mobile phones at the counter but SHQ forgot about the inactive mobile phone in her handbag which she keeps as a telephone directory for contacts built over a number of years. She was asked to go back and deposit the same and come back. She didn't want to go back to the entrance and stand in queue to deposit the second phone. She requested a flower vendor lady just outside the main precincts to keep the phone in temporary custody. Of course the quid pro quo was that she would buy a flower garland for offering to the Goddess. In her anxiety to get back inside the temple she forgot to pick up her handbag at the security check point . So the deal was that the flower lady would keep the mobile phone till such time the SHQ would come out after darshan and pay the cash for the flower garland that she purchased. Though we had stocked ourselves with sufficient number of low denomination notes when we started out, at the fag end of the trip I had just one 50 rupee note and a 20 rupee note and the rest were in 2000 rupee notes. But the cost of the flower garland was Rs 100. After some persuasion she agreed to get the change from other vendors and give us the balance. That I was able to exchange a Rs 2000 note for a Rs 100 worth of purchase was perhaps not as much of a surprise as what she did before that. She passed on the note to a third lady selling flowers to check if the note was authentic and not a fake. When I protested at the insinuation she claimed that she had been duped by another customer some days back and she can't afford to take chances. Was she saying it just to assuage my hurt feelings or there has indeed been a successful attempt at passing off a fake Rs 2000 note (perhaps a crude fake, but a fake note nonetheless)? I couldn't be very sure.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 22 Dec 2016 14:05

Habal, Great post.
Though you should have taken into account immense money laundering that is happening.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 22 Dec 2016 14:16

Nandakumarji, there have been instances (in the news) of people taking a color photocopy of the 2000 rupee note (or some similar low tech forged currency). If it makes you any happy, I have had bus drivers in Europe check my 20 euro note.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Dec 2016 14:22

honestly I do not see the cash in new currency available anywhere to launder money. These are not available with 90% of banks even to satisfy their daily requirements. Let alone give into wild rides of fancy of senior personnel.

There is only 1 way i see that this is happening.
Somewhere in my previous posts, I stated that PSU banks with big footprint in their HQ states and small/tiny/micro footprint in other states can be abused by compromised managers as cash received from RBI to every bank is more or less same. This is a procedural overlapse on part of RBI or they have done it on purpose to keep things simple & democratic. But there is a loophole here.

Let us take example of X bank operating not in it's home state (non HQ state), it receives ₹120 Crore from RBI in new currency. Frankly they have no need for it, and usually other banks that are starved of currency or have more a/c holders than their ₹120 Crore quota can service can borrow some cash from X bank for meeting contingency. Let's say X bank spares ₹20 Crore to another bank in need.

Now the above is an ideal situation wherein X bank plays by the rules and helps out fellow banks. What if X bank or X1 bank doesn't play by the rules and instead of helping out other banks or servicing their customers, some compromised senior person can transfer this via some current a/c's to pvt party. Or open loan a/c to pvt party and give him entire stash. This is only way new notes in such huge amounts can be accumulated.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 22 Dec 2016 14:32

habal wrote:honestly I do not see the cash in new currency available anywhere to launder money. These are not available with 90% of banks even to satisfy their daily requirements. Let alone give into wild rides of fancy of senior personnel.

In the hawala capital of Kerala, 466 crores have already been identified to be lying in suspicious accounts. And now that is just for a start. Yes, even I have been hearing stories of hawala trade again gaining momentum in the state. But personally I cannot vouch for it, and these stories are all "heard from my close friend, whose close friend's cousin is working in a mobile phone shop" kind of stories. So we have to take it with a pinch of salt.

In your earlier post, on who are the people who hoard cash, I feel you have not mentioned the hawala folks at all. And the "money bags" (mostly business houses) who are the back end finance team of politicians. You rightly said, business groups etc. who have black money would make much better use of it; by investing in new ventures or stocking it more safely. Capable CAs can help them out. The people who get trapped would be people who can make unaccounted money; but have no means to keep it in very safe custody.

Correct me if I am wrong, even the hawala traders in Kerala seems to be people in the "has money, but dumb" category. Their business lies on money distribution, so they need to keep cash at hand. They don't have much other avenues. Their approach also is not very sophisticated; bribing the right people with some raw muscle power as a back up. And I feel it these people who have rushed to their primary co.op banks and decided to deposit all money there. Most likely they would be worried of their places getting raided, and thought the banks were a safer option.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 22 Dec 2016 14:38

prahaar wrote:Nandakumarji, there have been instances (in the news) of people taking a color photocopy of the 2000 rupee note (or some similar low tech forged currency). If it makes you any happy, I have had bus drivers in Europe check my 20 euro note.

Your are right. Perhaps I have to give her the benefit of doubt. She might well have been gullible enough to have been taken in by a crude fake currency.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Dec 2016 14:42

Sachin, as far as I am aware of hawala trade, most of it is in ₹100 notes. They are not in habit to use large denom notes. Yes, they carry big sacks of notes to destination. Depending upon their inventory at hand, they may do ok or they may do poorly. I am not aware of current trends in this business.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 22 Dec 2016 15:00

earthquake reply speech by NaMo

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Dec 2016 15:06

habal wrote:t
For many people in India keeping 10 lakhs of cash @ home is sensible and practical.

This is a ballpark figure that you feel may be right. From the hospital doctor viewpoint - people with such volumes of money for ready infusion into healthcare is low. Most patients whom I see blink at 60-70,000. Educated people often choose to invest the money in schemes to multiply it. Until last year it was possible to get 8-9% interest on medium term deposits in PSU banks. Others, with humongous amounts of money who may be doing a lot of cash transactions in their day to day lives may find it sensible to keep such amounts at home because it is peanuts in relation to their total volumes

Otherwise the simple answer is black money which really must not go in the bank - and then it is definitely "sensible and practical"

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Dec 2016 15:11

habal wrote:Sachin, as far as I am aware of hawala trade, most of it is in ₹100 notes. .

This is the first I am hearing of this. Ever. You must know a lot about hawala because even the people I know who had black money never said anything of the sort. The hawala volumes must be low - because a crore is 120 kg in Rs 100 notes and if placed in a sack will need 3 men or a forklift to transport it.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Dec 2016 15:12

My understanding, within quotes, has been most middle class do not keep beyond 25K at home with now that ATMs and Cards are handy. Most lower middle class and poor needs are much lower.

Which middle class family will miss out on the interest on 10 lahks unless they can put it to work. The average of 10 lakhs @ home makes sense only for folks who do a lot of cash transactions i.e small traders / merchants and a few others from middle class. This is not counting black cash hoarders.

My guess would be less than 5% of the population keep anything upwards of 25k in cash at home and most of then upper middle class and middle class.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 22 Dec 2016 15:16

habal wrote:honestly I do not see the cash in new currency available anywhere to launder money. These are not available with 90% of banks even to satisfy their daily requirements. Let alone give into wild rides of fancy of senior personnel.

There is only 1 way i see that this is happening.
Somewhere in my previous posts, I stated that PSU banks with big footprint in their HQ states and small/tiny/micro footprint in other states can be abused by compromised managers as cash received from RBI to every bank is more or less same. This is a procedural overlapse on part of RBI or they have done it on purpose to keep things simple & democratic. But there is a loophole here.

Let us take example of X bank operating not in it's home state (non HQ state), it receives ₹120 Crore from RBI in new currency. Frankly they have no need for it, and usually other banks that are starved of currency or have more a/c holders than their ₹120 Crore quota can service can borrow some cash from X bank for meeting contingency. Let's say X bank spares ₹20 Crore to another bank in need.

Now the above is an ideal situation wherein X bank plays by the rules and helps out fellow banks. What if X bank or X1 bank doesn't play by the rules and instead of helping out other banks or servicing their customers, some compromised senior person can transfer this via some current a/c's to pvt party. Or open loan a/c to pvt party and give him entire stash. This is only way new notes in such huge amounts can be accumulated.

That is not the only way, there are multiple ways. the money being is laundered directly from the RBI and Bank chest. Banks are hoarding cash just like people are doing, they are not giving any to their own customers. One of banker's for example only gives out Rs.6000 at one go and for a week for ordinary people even if he can give more, While important customers get much more.

Money is also laundered through fake accounts. I dont think much time has been spend here on how money laundering is happening, people can only do that if they come out of their cocoon and chinbot behavior about this whole saga.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Dec 2016 15:19

Here is a 2015 news item of 50 crores being taken from hawala traders
http://indianexpress.com/article/cities ... nder-lens/

On Thursday, search teams, led by the sleuths of Kolkata I-T investigations wing, had recovered about Rs 50 crore cash from 16 gunny bags, 27 travel bags and two almirahs from different locations in Kolkata and Siliguri. The teams, comprising about 100 members, have deployed around a dozen machines to count the currency notes.

50 crores in Rs 100 = 6000 kg
In Rs 1000 it would be 600 kg

Assuming 50 kg per gunny bag, 15 kg per travel bag and 50 kg from each almirah - we get about 1200 kg. The stash is unlikely to have been in Rs 100 notes as claimed by Habal as the "norm" for hawala

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Dec 2016 15:22

shiv wrote:
habal wrote:t
For many people in India keeping 10 lakhs of cash @ home is sensible and practical.
This is a ballpark figure that you feel may be right. From the hospital doctor viewpoint - people with such volumes of money for ready infusion into healthcare is low. Most patients whom I see blink at 60-70,000. Educated people often choose to invest the money in schemes to multiply it. Until last year it was possible to get 8-9% interest on medium term deposits in PSU banks. Others, with humongous amounts of money who may be doing a lot of cash transactions in their day to day lives may find it sensible to keep such amounts at home because it is peanuts in relation to their total volumes

Otherwise the simple answer is black money which really must not go in the bank - and then it is definitely "sensible and practical"

shiv saar, I have seen folks burn through ₹3-4 lakh for 1 month of intensive treatment with end-stage conditions. Liver disease, patients on ventilator, stroke related complications etc and in that sense keeping ₹10 lakh has some safety margins. People who have experienced these tragedies and have means to keep some spare cash at home will do so no.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Dec 2016 15:26

shiv wrote:
habal wrote:Sachin, as far as I am aware of hawala trade, most of it is in ₹100 notes. .
This is the first I am hearing of this. Ever. You must know a lot about hawala because even the people I know who had black money never said anything of the sort. The hawala volumes must be low - because a crore is 120 kg in Rs 100 notes and if placed in a sack will need 3 men or a forklift to transport it.

there are people who regularly send small amounts to family from gulf etc through hawala route. The amounts can vary from 10,000-1 lakh. These are not HNI transfers as your acquaintances with black money may be used to. There are those hawala operators who have ₹500/₹1000 operations too, but they are jammed for obvious reasons. As I said, I do not know of latest trends in their business.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Dec 2016 15:32

MohdKav wrote:the money being is laundered directly from the RBI and Bank chest. Banks are hoarding cash just like people are doing, they are not giving any to their own customers. One of banker's for example only gives out Rs.6000 at one go and for a week for ordinary people even if he can give more, While important customers get much more.

Money is also laundered through fake accounts. I dont think much time has been spend here on how money laundering is happening, people can only do that if they come out of their cocoon and chinbot behavior about this whole saga.

RBI money laundering reports have mainly been by some 'senior special assistants' who have been caught in IT/CBI net. But these are basically amounts of ₹1.5 Cr because these people are clerks who are given responsibility (basically menial task) of logistics and transportation of currency. RBI deals only with banks and not with individual customers. So RBI directly doesn't do anything.

Banks currency chest, as far as pvt banks are concerned, these do not have unions or oversight of daily activities of senior management. Anything can happen there. I have no idea what they do with their cash.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Dec 2016 15:33

MohdKav wrote: Money is also laundered through fake accounts. I dont think much time has been spend here on how money laundering is happening, people can only do that if they come out of their cocoon and chinbot behavior about this whole saga.

Such words only indicate anger at people who disagree. It makes me laugh. Cocoons work in two ways - they insulate one side from the other.

After this whole process is over banks who have reported the collection of 13 lakh crores will have to account for them and state where the cash they have disbursed has gone. Of course there will be leaks but a lot more people are going to get caught and exposed.

And unless elections are serially lost by the ruling disposition it is not going to be easy to dub this exercise a failure - especially if the government starts handing out freebies into bank accounts of the really poor. The later would be very difficult to oppose because it would be open and leave an electronic trail - with no middlemen. I am not saying it will be done - but I can sense great fear among opponents of demonetization that this will happen, The biggest source of chagrin is that there is no one in India who can disagree with the idea that demonetization is one of many solutions. It was easier to protest against the Lahore visit and criticize the surgical strikes. But criticizing demonetization in the face of massive public support simply failed to work. That must be causing a lot of heartburn

It is 40 days late. The people opposing demonetization, if they had so much support and so much faith in the fact that it will fail had the opportunity to say Balls - we will keep on using the old cash. What would Modi have done? Shot them dead.

No. 80-90% of the money in 500 and 1000 Rupee notes has been duly handed back. And is even 10% of this is was black it means that those black money hoarders who weaseled their cash back in the system thought it was a better bet to try and take a risk an get away rather than revolt. There has been no revolt. there will be no revolt.

RajeshG · Post by **RajeshG** » 22 Dec 2016 15:35

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/i-t-r ... 68444.html

The first question that the raid on the office of the Tamil Nadu chief secretary P Rama Mohana Rao raises is this: Had Jayalalithaa been alive, would this have happened?

The answer is an unequivocal no. In fact, such a raid wouldn't have happened without massive political aftershocks in any other state because chief secretary is not just a senior IAS officer, but the secretary of the state cabinet. He/she is also the administrative lynchpin of a state, the chief of staff of the government.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 22 Dec 2016 15:37

The first big fat IAS babu has been caught as a part of the DEMONETIZATION Exercise.
It is Mr.P.Ram Mohana Rao - the No 1 IAS Officer in Tamil Nadu and the Chief Secretary of State of Tamil Nadu !!! (until today morning but now has been suspended by state government and replaced by another lady IAS officer).

Who is P. Rama Mohana Rao?
A ‘Search Strike’ launched with precision
Search at Secretariat shocks officialdom

At around 12.30 p.m., the reporters on duty at the Secretariat in Fort St. George were hoping to get the reaction of Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam to the searches by income--tax officials at the residence of Mr. Rao and his relatives in various parts of the city, Bengaluru and Andhra Pradesh.

Jokes were doing the rounds that any corrupt bureaucrat is more likely to keep his wealth in his own office and that the IT officials must actually search the offices at the Secretariat. What was said in jest actually came true at around 2.20 p.m. when three cars, with IT officials guarded by paramilitary men, glided into the Secretariat, shocking cops, bureaucrats and staff in the vicinity.

When the IT officials made their way to the Chief Secretary’s chamber in the first floor, the meda was stopped at the entrance. Police officials cordoned off the Chief Secretary’s chamber, not allowing even reporters to stand in the corridor.

ED arrests HAWALA TRADER Paras Lodha from Delhi

The Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Thursday said that it arrested hawala trader Paras Mal Lodha here for converting over Rs 25 crore in old notes linked to businessman J. Shekhar Reddy and lawyer Rohit Tandon into new currency.

The Kolkata-based businessman was arrested on Wednesday night after hours of questioning by the ED officials.
.
.
Earlier on Thursday, the ED officials had carried out raids at state cooperative bank of Kannur, Kozhikode and Thrissur and CBI in Kollam and Malappuram.

Mr.P.Ram Mohana Rao, his son Vikram (started 6 companies since 2012 soon after his father become the second biggest IAS babu in TN under Amma's rule), Mr. Sekhar Reddy (a sand mining baron), a Kolkatta accomplice & HAWALA TRADER Mr.Paras Lodha (caught at airport when attempting to flee India & who had helped in converting more than 25 crores of INR from old notes to new 2000 INR notes), Mr.Sekhar Reddy's auditor, a couple of chennai bank managers have been raided & caught with much unaccountable black money wealth & gold. IT, ED and CBI are in hold of these people !.

A second big IAS officer and Managing Director of TN Warehousing Corporation Mr.K.Nagarajan's house has also been raided by IT department folks and they have caught unaccounted money to amount of 1.5 crore INR & nearly 6 KGs of Gold in his house. IT Raids have also been conducted overnight in some District Co-operative banks in Salem, TN.

If not for DEMONETIZATION - these guys would not have been caught !.

Now let us hope for some of those big fat 'businessmen' also get caught soon as a part of this DEMONETIZATION exercise.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Dec 2016 15:37

habal wrote:
shiv saar, I have seen folks burn through ₹3-4 lakh for 1 month of intensive treatment with end-stage conditions. Liver disease, patients on ventilator, stroke related complications etc and in that sense keeping ₹10 lakh has some safety margins. People who have experienced these tragedies and have means to keep some spare cash at home will do so no.

I see this all the time. As a percentage of the population this is very low. Extrapolating the percentage of people who face such expenses to reach a general conclusion that people keep that much aside is not true. Besides - a huge percentage of people who face such expenses are unprepared and do not have 10 lakhs lying around for that.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 22 Dec 2016 15:40

MohdKav wrote:Money is also laundered through fake accounts. I dont think much time has been spend here on how money laundering is happening,

This is indeed an option as we have seen through what Axis bank has done. But does that also mean, that black money hoarders had so many fake accounts already setup with all means to with draw the money as well? I am for sure, that there have been people who have managed to launder money. But it cannot be a 100% success or failure scheme. We may have to wait for official RBI information on all these, other than rely on media out lets who certainly are NOT neutral. But it would also be nice if you could share some thoughts on the "money laundering" avenues. Because that perspective also should be known.

habal wrote:there are people who regularly send small amounts to family from gulf etc through hawala route. The amounts can vary from 10,000-1 lakh. These are not HNI transfers as your acquaintances with black money may be used to. There are those hawala operators who have ₹500/₹1000 operations too, but they are jammed for obvious reasons. As I said, I do not know of latest trends in their business.

Agreed. But with 500s being such a common currency in Kerala, don't you feel that the hawala traders may also have started using it? At least for the practical benefit of carrying them? In my last 6-7 years of experience in Kerala, Rs. 500 is a very common currency denomination. I mean it is like the bare minimum note which gets submitted at the local Beverages Co. out let. Rs. 100 etc. generally is for auto fares etc. etc. And I don't know if hawala traders had some kind of unwritten rule that their transactions always would be on low denomination notes. Take for example the first major catching at Kerala after Nov 8th. And old woman was caught with fake notes worth Rs. 35,000. They, AFAIK were all Rs. 500 currency. And for all you know the hawala traders may have used her as a trial baloon to see if the banks/government are serious.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 22 Dec 2016 15:44

I think its well known in this forum that folks like habal (Bengaluru based ?) & MohdKav (Kerala based ?) are completely anti-Demonetization in their inclinations and their posts indicate their defiant mood almost in support of BM Holders & almost praising the crooked methods used by these BM Holders to save their BM Stash and completely against the government's DeMo actions.

Despicable ! to say the least !!.

habal · Post by **habal** » 22 Dec 2016 15:50

SaraLax wrote:I think its well known in this forum that folks like habal (Bengaluru based ?) & MohdKav (Kerala based ?) are completely anti-Demonetization in their inclinations and their posts indicate their defiant mood almost in support of BM Holders & almost praising the crooked methods used by these BM Holders to save their BM Stash and completely against the government's DeMo actions.

Despicable ! to say the least !!.

SaraLax, did demonitisation for you really imply throttling of alternate opinion ?

just asking.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 22 Dec 2016 15:56

Doc,

the only people who disagree are people like me, and frankly the number of people who think like me or have my experience here in BR would make the term 'minority' seem laughable. I am like a speck of dust here, inconsequential. You are foolish to think I am against demon, I am not. But if you think I agree with the haphazard way it has been done and also I am facepalming everytime I read the 'high fiving' which goes around in BR pages. There are serious loopholes which in my opinion has made the whole exercise a futile one. Heck look at your responses - during the intial days 'it was a tremendous success' - that was the mantra over here, now it is all about 'you cant call it a failure', downhill sliding is indeed fascinating.

PS: A 'lot' of people arent getting caught - 'token number' are getting caught. Ordinary Mango men has absolutely no clue how he is getting jacked, he will though in couple of months. Cost of Demon is estimated to be 1.3 lac crore, if modi doesnt get double of that, and ofcourse thousands in jails, you can expect the people to extremely unhappy and will shown in the elections.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 22 Dec 2016 15:59

SaraLax wrote:I think its well known in this forum that folks like habal (Bengaluru based ?) & MohdKav (Kerala based ?) are completely anti-Demonetization in their inclinations and their posts indicate their defiant mood almost in support of BM Holders & almost praising the crooked methods used by these BM Holders to save their BM Stash and completely against the government's DeMo actions.

Despicable ! to say the least !!.

When did Demo become us or them issue ?
Who told you I am against demo ?
Where did I praise BM's?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 22 Dec 2016 15:59

MohdKav your opinions are fine as far as I am concerned, but applying labels like people in cocoons and chinbot to others who see the event from different eyes add an unnecessary dimension.

Rishi Verma · Post by **Rishi Verma** » 22 Dec 2016 16:00

rahulm wrote:Suraj, anyway I can PM you? Thanks

rahulmJi
Here is the email, and a template. All you need to do is fill out the name etc. Hope you do.

Dear sir, the person known to me Mr. _____ claimed that he has made _____ amount in black money in Goa due to ______ transaction.

blackmoneyinfo@incometax. gov.in

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 22 Dec 2016 16:06

MohdKav wrote:But if you think I agree with the haphazard way it has been done and also I am facepalming everytime I read the 'high fiving' which goes around in BR pages.

Then what would your recommended way of demonetization be? I hope you would not become a Thomas Issac (Fin. Min of Kerala) who has no counter solutions for any problem, but only has complaints - typical Kerala commie

. In fact, it is better that people who have different thoughts also explain the rationale from their side.

There are serious loopholes which in my opinion has made the whole exercise a futile one.

What are those? You already mentioned the use of fake accounts etc. And how could that be countered?

if modi doesnt get double of that, and ofcourse thousands in jails, you can expect the people to extremely unhappy and will shown in the elections.

My understanding is that Modi's government wants their tax dues. Their idea is not to put 1000s inside prisons, and then feed them. Once the money comes in, then it is pure politics. The government would know how to use it best, and as a political party BJP would ensure such schemes would show them in positive light. To put it frankly; this operation is more like that of a "shake down" by police officials on hoodlums and local rowdies. "You pay us your dues, and then you would be let off". Secondly, elections still are 2 years away; a day in politics is a very long day.

MohdKav · Post by **MohdKav** » 22 Dec 2016 16:45

shiv wrote:MohdKav your opinions are fine as far as I am concerned, but applying labels like people in cocoons and chinbot to others who see the event from different eyes add an unnecessary dimension.

You dont seem to have any issue as majority on this forum, to call the very handful of people as 'commie's, black money hoarder, anti national etc. I am sure it adds unncessary dimension when I am accused with such silly terms. Which you yourself have seen through the pages. You can see a similar term used twice in this very page against me,