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Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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shiv
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 14 Jan 2017 07:46

Everyone gets criticized. With social media and electronic media hungry to talk, forget the PM or government - Indians get criticized, the army gets criticized, the air force does, as does the navy and the PSU banks, and Bollywood and the Supreme court. Demonetization brought our critics of lots of peopel small buinessmen, doctors, itvity ppl chaiwalas - you name it and it was criticized. The RBI has been sheltered and someone says something and these guys get their knickers in a big twist - and write an open public letter saying "Waaaaaaaah. We are being criticized we feel hurt. We work sooo hard".

This gets no sympathy from me. I might as well ask - with so many banking officials have been exposed as being corrupt post demonetization - what confidence can I have that the RBI is squeaky clean and super efficient?

shiv
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 14 Jan 2017 07:56

ShauryaT wrote:
shiv wrote:If they have written to Urjt Patel AND released the letter to the press (NDTV) - clearly the intent is more than just an appeal to the RBI governor.
The story is in all the channels. Sites like NDTV do only syndicated feeds 80% of the time, the copy is not their original work.

Shaurya:

This is RBI's Twitter feed - and this big RBI news does not show up
https://twitter.com/RBI

Meanwhile the employees Unions have released their letter to the press and this is what NewsX says
http://www.newsx.com/national/52523-rbi ... government
The employee unions of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday expressed their deep concern over the alleged incident of interference by the central government in the affairs of the apex bank.

The employees gave vent to their resentment over the alleged interference through a letter addressed to RBI Governor Urjit Patel.

It is easy to dismiss this as yet another communist party provoked Union gaandmasti against the government. It's business as usual

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 14 Jan 2017 08:03

Meanwhile - here is news from the AIRBEA - the first signatory of that letter - All India Reserve bank Employees association dated tomorrow
http://peoplesdemocracy.in/content/airb ... conference
Image
AIRBEA Holds 31st Conference

Vol. XLI No. 03
January 15, 2017

THE All India Reserve Bank Employees Association (AIRBEA) held its 31st conference in Kolkata on December 6 to 8, 2013. It was almost half a century ago, in 1966, when an AIRBEA conference was last held in Kolkata. The host unit rose to the occasion magnificently and extended to the delegates and guests a warm and cordial reception and hospitality. Apart from aesthetic decorations and illumination, it organised fascinating cultural presentations which won the hearts of one and all.

As the guest of honour, Tripura chief minister Manik Sarkar, suddenly got indisposed, Basudeb Acharia inaugurated the conference on December 6 evening, speaking about the prevalent situation and the plight of the poor, of the unorganised workers and peasants, urging upon Reserve Bank employees to be part of the broader movement. He appreciated the AIRBEA efforts to defend the central bank’s autonomy and the country’s economic sovereignty.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ShauryaT » 14 Jan 2017 08:35

Shiv ji: You are pessimistic due to the political leanings and biases of the messengers and carriers. I am really ignoring these aspects and looking at the message. From my prism, is the message being carried authentic and is it meaningful? Everyone has biases.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby habal » 14 Jan 2017 08:45

What I find funny is AIRBEA, a left union is fighting for cause of 'independence of RBI'.

Independence of central banks from elected govts has always been a basel based bank of international settlements demand. BIS has always been at the vanguard of western capitalist dominance of global banking.

strange bedfellows these.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Kashi » 14 Jan 2017 09:03

ShauryaT wrote:Shiv ji: You are pessimistic due to the political leanings and biases of the messengers and carriers. I am really ignoring these aspects and looking at the message. From my prism, is the message being carried authentic and is it meaningful? Everyone has biases.


So you admit to your "political leanings and biases"?

Good to know, after all we all have our opinions.

But when you say "I am really ignoring these aspects and looking at the message." Is it really correct?

I think all of us would agree that there are both positive and negative "news reports" and "opinion pieces" about DeMo and it's anticipated impact on the economy and the country.

Please evaluate your positing history since DeMo neutrally and tell us, have you truly focused on conveying the messages from either side of the divide?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ShauryaT » 14 Jan 2017 09:04

Habal: And probably hypocrites too. The truth of the matter is by law the RBI is only nominally independent. By law, the GoI can impinge on its autonomy and functioning quite severely. In practice, the level of autonomy depends on what the RBI Governor can manage and a government willing to give. Strengthening of checks and balances to promote this autonomy is healthy - especially in the Indian political environment, where governments are prone to popular measures which compromise the fiscal sides and in turn then compromise the monetary policy. These left unions were probably quiet when previous governments have impinged on this autonomy and indeed deliberately mismanaged.

I just wish the steps taken by this government were to promote the institutional independence of the RBI in all its respects, knowing fully well how governments of the past have misused the RBI. If we continue to get the same then, it is just same old.
Last edited by ShauryaT on 14 Jan 2017 09:11, edited 1 time in total.

ShauryaT
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ShauryaT » 14 Jan 2017 09:11

Kashi wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:Shiv ji: You are pessimistic due to the political leanings and biases of the messengers and carriers. I am really ignoring these aspects and looking at the message. From my prism, is the message being carried authentic and is it meaningful? Everyone has biases.


So you admit to your "political leanings and biases"?

Good to know, after all we all have our opinions.

But when you say "I am really ignoring these aspects and looking at the message." Is it really correct?

I think all of us would agree that there are both positive and negative "news reports" and "opinion pieces" about DeMo and it's anticipated impact on the economy and the country.

Please evaluate your positing history since DeMo neutrally and tell us, have you truly focused on conveying the messages from either side of the divide?
I have not shared my personal political leanings, and was referring to the leanings of the unions, the messengers and the media as the carriers. Please do not read into my political leanings, they have NOTHING to do with the policies I support or oppose.

On the policy front, no, I have not supported the demonetization move and have made it very clear. So no, not seeking to present either side of the divide but make some posts towards my policy position.

Anyways, the above post was less to do with demon and more to do with future directions. I have opposed the previous move of this government to restrict the autonomy of the RBI in the setting of rates.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jan 2017 10:10

Economic Times
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ind ... 341548.cms
ET VIEW:
Remonetisation Must Be a Joint Effort

Swift remonetisation to get the wheels of the economy moving should be a joint effort of the government and the Reserve Bank of India. Together the two run four presses that print all the legal tender. The appointment of a central government official to coordinate currency chest operations is more about overseeing the logistics to hasten the pace of introducing new notes. So, the perception that this infringes on the regulator’s autonomy is entirely misplaced.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jan 2017 12:50

The massive economic collapse continues and deepens:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/busi ... 521471.cms
India's exports continued to grow for the fourth straight month in December 2016, expanding by 5.72 per cent to $23.9 billion compared to $22.6 billion in the same month of previous year.


I suppose we can be sure that few of these exports came from AIMO's (All India Manufacturers' Association) members, since per their survey, the export-oriented activities were severely hit by demonetization.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 14 Jan 2017 15:09

From ibtimes

Gold imports dropped 48.49 percent to $1.95 billion from $3.80 billion in December 2015. In November, gold imports spurted 23.24 percent to $4.36 billion from $3.54 billion in November 2015 and $3.50 billion in October this year. The November spike was widely believed to be rise in gold purchases in the initial days of demonetisation.


Hope this trend continues.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2017 17:01

ShauryaT wrote:Shiv ji: You are pessimistic due to the political leanings and biases of the messengers and carriers. I am really ignoring these aspects and looking at the message. From my prism, is the message being carried authentic and is it meaningful? Everyone has biases.


What I find is:
a) Govt needed to accomplish something that would take extreme coordination of the Mint, IT, ED, Finance Ministry, Home Ministry, Banks, even the Air Force - note that C-17s and IL-76s and maybe the Antonovs were pressed into service full-time to transport currency all over India!
b) RBI is crucial and central. It is known that RBI is infested with commnist Unions. Probably not used to doing a full day's work in a year.
c) So, govt appointed a CO-ORDINATOR to try to move the bowels over at RBI.
d) That's why the PMO is expected to be the closest thing that India has to an Executive Branch.

The RBI Governor was not superseded. So WTF business do these low-life have complaining about Autonomy? They don't have Autonomy, the RBI Governor is the one who presides over the Autonomy. If his Heart and Mind have been won over by the PMO, well... "relax and enjoy". :mrgreen:

RBI baboon are not, say, Tenured Faculty as in the US, and even those better jump when their President says Jump! Yeah, OTOH they can :(( , but Baboon inside the bowels of financial institutions have no such right.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby UlanBatori » 14 Jan 2017 17:02

By "export expansion" I assume they are counting RaGa and his troupe exiting to Bilayat with their baggage.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby chetak » 14 Jan 2017 17:06

shiv wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:The story is in all the channels. Sites like NDTV do only syndicated feeds 80% of the time, the copy is not their original work.

Shaurya:

This is RBI's Twitter feed - and this big RBI news does not show up
https://twitter.com/RBI

Meanwhile the employees Unions have released their letter to the press and this is what NewsX says
http://www.newsx.com/national/52523-rbi ... government
The employee unions of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday expressed their deep concern over the alleged incident of interference by the central government in the affairs of the apex bank.

The employees gave vent to their resentment over the alleged interference through a letter addressed to RBI Governor Urjit Patel.

It is easy to dismiss this as yet another communist party provoked Union gaandmasti against the government. It's business as usual


not just the commies.

one of the unions is controlled by uddav thakeray and they seem to be the prime movers

chetak
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby chetak » 14 Jan 2017 17:09

UlanBatori wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:Shiv ji: You are pessimistic due to the political leanings and biases of the messengers and carriers. I am really ignoring these aspects and looking at the message. From my prism, is the message being carried authentic and is it meaningful? Everyone has biases.


What I find is:
a) Govt needed to accomplish something that would take extreme coordination of the Mint, IT, ED, Finance Ministry, Home Ministry, Banks, even the Air Force - note that C-17s and IL-76s and maybe the Antonovs were pressed into service full-time to transport currency all over India!
b) RBI is crucial and central. It is known that RBI is infested with commnist Unions. Probably not used to doing a full day's work in a year.
c) So, govt appointed a CO-ORDINATOR to try to move the bowels over at RBI.
d) That's why the PMO is expected to be the closest thing that India has to an Executive Branch.

The RBI Governor was not superseded. So WTF business do these low-life have complaining about Autonomy? They don't have Autonomy, the RBI Governor is the one who presides over the Autonomy. If his Heart and Mind have been won over by the PMO, well... "relax and enjoy". :mrgreen:

RBI baboon are not, say, Tenured Faculty as in the US, and even those better jump when their President says Jump! Yeah, OTOH they can :(( , but Baboon inside the bowels of financial institutions have no such right.


in any case, the RBI guv is appointed by the GOI.

the GOI will have it's say, in one way or the other, come what may.

nothing wrong.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby srin » 14 Jan 2017 19:39

"Autonomy" is a good excuse for all the inaction against measures that people elected the Govt for. Everybody should have a boss, to whom they need to be accountable. Who is the RBI accountable to ? Till JDY, they couldn't find a way to provide bank accounts to poor. They issued and still maintain insane KYC norms that ensured that the RBI Gov who put it in place couldn't provide one after he retired :rotfl:

It is time to break it up into multiple entities - one for bank regulation, one for monetary policy etc.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kiranA » 14 Jan 2017 20:19

Hari Seldon wrote:
kiranA wrote:If a wholesale economic collapse with loss of income to millions, loss of thousands of jobs, hunger for thousands of people, deaths for few hundreds was "expected" from demon then not only does it make demon stupid but an act of crime to be prosecuted. I dont think they were expected just not thought through. Now govt is tring to spin its way out the mess.


Are you saying the above has happened/is happening? And why do you say so? Just curious.


The above has happened and continue to happen for a while. Its not really hard to see why. You can just walk to any nearby neighboring businessmen - right in this forum we have a veteran Shiv who reported significant loss of business. But to understand the full scale of catastrophe here you need to look at data.

Just one data point I have read recently - vegetable prices collapsed by 14% in December - pretty much validates what I said. Note that govt data comes only from white economy and biased for urban. And if 14% is loss taken by retailer , the farmer has likely taken a higher hit. That alone validates millions lost income and the rest are its corralaries. Ofcourse the direct deaths are most shameful as country witnessed it elderly, newborn infants, women collapsing to death as they have been dragged to long lines to get their own hard earned money by their own prime minister.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Primus » 14 Jan 2017 20:22

^^

Once again, Kitna Tha?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kiranA » 14 Jan 2017 20:23

A_Gupta wrote:
schinnas wrote:Textiles and jewelery and handicrafts are key export industries in India outside of fully organized sectors such as pharma and IT. Both the jewelery and textile sectors are highly unorganized with multiple levels of outsourcing with actual work done mostly in several SMEs, who mostly run a cash-less enterprise. I have spoken to export supporting entrepreneurs in textile belt in TN and they indicate severe impact to business.


OK, is there a graph of cotton spot prices for October-December? Surely it should show the effect of demonetization with a fall in spot prices.

Also, if the massive economic collapse, etc., is true, then cotton futures prices should also show a steep fall.


Do you understand that this not recession induced economic damage but a monetory policy shock induced damage ? this has totally different features. It first starts with collapse in demand especially retail demand and then moves to supply chain in next months. But those ins supply chain such as MSME who handle cash are also immediately effected.

MSEs suffered 50% dip in revenue, 35% drop in revenue post demonetization: All India Manufacturers' Organization .

http://menafn.com/1095180112/MSEs-suffe ... ganization

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kiranA » 14 Jan 2017 20:26

shiv wrote:
kiranA wrote:If a wholesale economic collapse with loss of income to millions, loss of thousands of jobs, hunger for thousands of people, deaths for few hundreds was "expected" from demon then not only does it make demon stupid but an act of crime to be prosecuted. I dont think they were expected just not thought through. Now govt is tring to spin its way out the mess.

Well I can see a wholesale economic collapse of people who had a huge black stash and a business that ran on that. I see virtually zero collapse over most of the system

While there are some who accuse the government of dire errors, I think those people also forget the number of people who were lily white or nearly white and living on very little cash

So the news for the views that you express may be bad. the economy for most people is not about to collapse.


Shiv,

To understand what I am saying you need to possess two things.
1) An actual knowledge about how economy works
2) A modicum of empathy when you see people suffering for no fault of them.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Pratyush » 14 Jan 2017 20:51

Kiran I had asked you for 10 year data and wholesale farm prices of agricultural produce in the market for us to understand true effect of demonitasition. We have not yet seen this exercise from you. Yet we keep on seeing verbose Post demanding empathy and claiming huge disruption and millions of job losses.

Please let us have hard data with supporting evidence of agricultural collapse before we have a discussion on other topics.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby TSJones » 14 Jan 2017 20:51

the question is, "does India want to join the digital economy?".

Modi has answered "yes".

does India think there was not a going to be a price to pay? Seriously?

when the US was transformed from a largely rural society to urban in the 1920's and 30's the pain was awful.

it inspired a book called the "Grapes of Wrath".

a cultural change is very painful. always.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 14 Jan 2017 21:04

kiranA wrote:Just one data point I have read recently - vegetable prices collapsed by 14% in December - pretty much validates what I said. Note that govt data comes only from white economy and biased for urban. And if 14% is loss taken by retailer , the farmer has likely taken a higher hit. That alone validates millions lost income and the rest are its corralaries. Ofcourse the direct deaths are most shameful as country witnessed it elderly, newborn infants, women collapsing to death as they have been dragged to long lines to get their own hard earned money by their own prime minister.

Validated nothing! Vegetables are most plentiful in December/January period. Since the time I can remember this has been the season of lowest priced vegetables of all months. This is not a new phenomena. I have spoken to elders who have seen more than 60 seasons and all of them have said the same thing.

This year, because of plentiful monsoon, we have had bountiful produce. 14% down, if that is the average from across India is actually less than I have seen in earlier seasons. I have witnessed up to 50% and more fall in vegetable prices in December/January many seasons. In my home town, I have bought Cauliflower at Rs 24 / Kg just before the start of the season and again at Rs 6 / kg during peak season (January). This is from before 2000. I remember because those days we were part of lower middle class and had to watch our budget very carefully and Cauliflower was the most sought after vegetable of the winter season in our household.

Now tell us Kitna gaya?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kiranA » 14 Jan 2017 21:32

Pratyush wrote:Kiran I had asked you for 10 year data and wholesale farm prices of agricultural produce in the market for us to understand true effect of demonitasition. We have not yet seen this exercise from you. Yet we keep on seeing verbose Post demanding empathy and claiming huge disruption and millions of job losses.

Please let us have hard data with supporting evidence of agricultural collapse before we have a discussion on other topics.


Sorry I dont run a data/statistical service for your benefit. Fetch your own data.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby prasannasimha » 14 Jan 2017 21:49

^ Hmm then you have no data to support your statements.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby SriKumar » 14 Jan 2017 21:51

kiranA wrote:deaths for few hundreds
I dont know where you got the 'few hundreds' from. Most of the news reports talk of about 50, with one quoting a hundred, with no details. There was one that listed each one (50) and in that list were some that are suicides and a murder. I'll agree that it is stressful for old people to stand in line for long hours and the anxiety would have lead to greater stress and potentially heart attack; but attribute the rest to this is a bit much. And all these reporters who are concerned about deaths due to demonetization... they seem to be concerned about deaths only due to demonetization and nothing more.

I would maintain that they should also; atleast for a show of objectivity, compare this with (i) deaths due to black money economy, and (ii) lives saved due to demonetization. In the latter category, one can list the reduction of terrorist activity in Kashmir and Northeast, and the surrender of several hundred maoists in central India. Surely these would have saved some lives atleast of the police people, though it is difficult to quantify. As for lives lost due to black money, again, that is a bit difficult to quantify but think of all the medical facilities, equipment and life-saving medicines that were not give to govt. hospitals due to politicians/middlemen siphoning off money, poor quality construction of roads with potholes where lives were lost due to accident, flyover collapeses (corruption = black money is the connection I am making). It would be fascinating to see a list like that. I would think the loss of life would run into hundreds if not thousands.

On a related note, most of the Indian reports on deaths due to demonetization ended around Nov. 18th or so. I dont know what happened after that for the deaths to stop. Perhaps the cash crunch eased significantly?
Last edited by SriKumar on 14 Jan 2017 21:55, edited 1 time in total.

shiv
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 14 Jan 2017 21:55

kiranA wrote:
Shiv,

To understand what I am saying you need to possess two things.
1) An actual knowledge about how economy works
2) A modicum of empathy when you see people suffering for no fault of them.


Lets say I'm stupid and I don't know or notice how others suffer. But I am pretty clear about how I and others close to me have suffered. For no fault of my own. And now I look around and I see the possibility that the mofos who cause my suffering taking a beating. And I am enjoying it very much. I never thought I would see this in my lifetime and it gives me hope that those people can be kicked and beaten into extinction. No one gave a flying fuk when people like me spent every minute being honest and law abiding I only heard derisive laughs about being too stupid to understand how money works or how the economy works. And guess what - you are throwing the same crap at me.

So no. Those who are suffering are welcome to feel sorry for themselves - I will show them as much "empathy" as I and my ilk have received for our "economic ignorance"

Your patronization is no skin off my nose.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 14 Jan 2017 22:11

One of the more stupid questions I hear about demonetization is the rhetorical question "Will corruption now stop". This question is fielded almost triumphantly - with a sense of glee that all the corrupt mofos will be at it again and demonetization will have achieved nothing other than make others suffer.

No. It's not as simple as that. For a large number of people like me who have been straight - but not totally powerless - there is now the knowledge that we have support. There people like me who will fight and use the power we have to bring down the corrupt. The fight is by no means over. But there is hope.

Funnily enough the last time felt hope like this was soon after Modi came to power and he started the swacch bharat campaign and campaigns to stop open defecation/urination. I have been conducting my on fight against people pissing in public for over a decade now. I even had a big argument with a brfite when I posted my views on what should be done - but then again not everyone will fight like I do. Even I despite my aggression had to face idiot excuses like "It's cold today so I piss in the open" or "I am diabetic so my dick must come out at zero notice for a public pee" But after Modi's initiatives - I find that in public no one has the guts to argue me or oppose me if I tell them off (or request them) not to piss in public. Having the PM and an entire government agreeing with you gives a sense of power that will not go away even if the government goes - because we know the sentiment is there.

Those who read local newspapers in Blr would have read that the idiotic "akrama-sakrama" scheme by the government to legallize illegal constructions and make yet more money has been blocked by the Supreme court. Many of the campaigners who helped to achieve this are known to me personally. They are not politicians - but they are not weak or powerless. They are all straight honest people. We will get together. We will fight. No one is under illusions that corruption will end. but the corrupt can be hit and they will take a beating. That I can assure you

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kiranA » 14 Jan 2017 22:13

pankajs wrote:
kiranA wrote:Just one data point I have read recently - vegetable prices collapsed by 14% in December - pretty much validates what I said. Note that govt data comes only from white economy and biased for urban. And if 14% is loss taken by retailer , the farmer has likely taken a higher hit. That alone validates millions lost income and the rest are its corralaries. Ofcourse the direct deaths are most shameful as country witnessed it elderly, newborn infants, women collapsing to death as they have been dragged to long lines to get their own hard earned money by their own prime minister.

Validated nothing! Vegetables are most plentiful in December/January period. Since the time I can remember this has been the season of lowest priced vegetables of all months. This is not a new phenomena. I have spoken to elders who have seen more than 60 seasons and all of them have said the same thing.

This year, because of plentiful monsoon, we have had bountiful produce. 14% down, if that is the average from across India is actually less than I have seen in earlier seasons. I have witnessed up to 50% and more fall in vegetable prices in December/January many seasons. In my home town, I have bought Cauliflower at Rs 24 / Kg just before the start of the season and again at Rs 6 / kg during peak season (January). This is from before 2000. I remember because those days we were part of lower middle class and had to watch our budget very carefully and Cauliflower was the most sought after vegetable of the winter season in our household.

Now tell us Kitna gaya?


It was dec 2016 to dec 2015. Apples to apples.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kiranA » 14 Jan 2017 22:19

shiv wrote:
kiranA wrote:
Shiv,

To understand what I am saying you need to possess two things.
1) An actual knowledge about how economy works
2) A modicum of empathy when you see people suffering for no fault of them.


Lets say I'm stupid and I don't know or notice how others suffer. But I am pretty clear about how I and others close to me have suffered. For no fault of my own. And now I look around and I see the possibility that the mofos who cause my suffering taking a beating. And I am enjoying it very much. I never thought I would see this in my lifetime and it gives me hope that those people can be kicked and beaten into extinction. No one gave a flying fuk when people like me spent every minute being honest and law abiding I only heard derisive laughs about being too stupid to understand how money works or how the economy works. And guess what - you are throwing the same crap at me.

So no. Those who are suffering are welcome to feel sorry for themselves - I will show them as much "empathy" as I and my ilk have received for our "economic ignorance"

Your patronization is no skin off my nose.


Didnt mean for you to take it so personally. Political leanings bring in wilful ignorance without the person noticing it much.

I believe I was right to call you out on empathy. Because you, like in this post, as well - aggressivley question the intent of anyone who criticize demon and refuse to ponder over the information they present.

There are no black money people and white money people - a man can have both the monies with him. black money is question of discipline and compliance. using demon is like replacing a scalpel with a chain saw.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby SriKumar » 14 Jan 2017 22:26

shiv wrote:One of the more stupid questions I hear about demonetization is the rhetorical question "Will corruption now stop". This question is fielded almost triumphantly - with a sense of glee that all the corrupt mofos will be at it again and demonetization will have achieved nothing other than make others suffer.
This is exactly what I am facing too. I've had discussions with people in my desi circle. Most are anti-demo, for different reasons. But there are some who will come up with a triumphant/gleeful comment that....'People are very smart, they already took care of the notes in the first few days itself'. Or, 'people have taken care of the situation....they use xx method and got around the problem'. Hawala transfers working overtime in the first few days of DeMo was mentioned triumphantly, recently (I did not understand the point). These are from people who have businesses in the family. I almost want to call them out on it...'why are you gleeful/joyful in appreciating Indian smartness/jugaad in this matter'? The unsaid implication being that he is supporting/glorifying blackmarteering and corruption. But these are people I know. So the best I do is to drop small hints and not confront. This seems to be the case more and more lately.

I think people will start to shut up after there are high-profile raids on business people who have side-stepped the DeMo amnesty. Until then, the people who have circumvented the financial system then by not paying taxes, and getting around DeMO now, will continue to crow about 'Indian ingenuinity'

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jan 2017 22:29

kiranA wrote:Do you understand that this not recession induced economic damage but a monetory policy shock induced damage ? this has totally different features. It first starts with collapse in demand especially retail demand and then moves to supply chain in next months. But those ins supply chain such as MSME who handle cash are also immediately effected.

MSEs suffered 50% dip in revenue, 35% drop in revenue post demonetization: All India Manufacturers' Organization .

http://menafn.com/1095180112/MSEs-suffe ... ganization


Dear BRF Trainee kiranA, please answer yes/no to each of the following.

1. The issue we're discussing is a supposed huge impact to "export-oriented activities" in the textile sector as reported by AIMO?(yes/no)?

2. Demonetization has no direct impact on foreign demand. (yes/no)?

3. Weakening rupee mentioned as a problem by AIMO is beneficial to exporters. (yes/no)?

4. On the demand side, in December 2016, Indian exports continued their growth from October and November, as well as compared to December 2015. (yes/no)?

5. We have proven no demand side shock for "export oriented activities". (yes/no)?

Let's start with this much.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jan 2017 22:32

kiranA wrote:...Political leanings bring in wilful ignorance without the person noticing it much.
....Because you, like in this post, as well - aggressivley question the intent of anyone who criticize demon and refuse to ponder over the information they present.


Since you broke your silence on this thread, I have seen no information, and no correct statements, only opinions with no supporting data. You're talking about the economy, numbers are essential.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jan 2017 22:41

A_Gupta wrote:OK, I have an answer to my own question.
I've downloaded week-wise cotton spot prices from the Cotton Association of India website:
http://www.caionline.in/site/spot_rates

Here's the data for ICS-101, the cheapest grade of cotton, price per quintal, for the dates in 2015-16 and 2016-17.

Sorry, I don't see any sign of economic collapse or slowdown in the yarn industry in these data. Of course, maybe these data don't refer to anything real - in which case, please produce real data.

Code: Select all

Per Quintal  2015-16 2016-17 2015-16 2016-17
ICS-101                      With Nov02 == 100
Nov 02        8605    7705    100.0   100.0
Nov 09        8605    7705    100.0   100.0
Nov 16        8520    7845     99.0   101.8
Nov 23        8464    7592     98.4    98.5
Nov 30        8436    7564     98.0    98.2
Dec 07        8323    7592     96.7    98.5
Dec 14        8323    7367     96.7    95.6
Dec 21        8520    7452     99.0    96.7
Dec 28        8942    8239    103.9   106.9
Jan 04        9195    8211    106.9   106.6
Jan 11        8886    8520    103.3   110.6


Quoting my own post, but one question was, why was the Nov 2, 2016 cotton price per quintal Rs 900/- less than that on Nov 2, 2015? The answer is (from http://www.cottonyarnmarket.net/ - note the date, October 17, 2016)
INDORE: Spinning mills have significantly reduced buying raw cotton from the market due to inferior produce. The units are holding back buys anticipating a drop in prices of raw cotton with arrival of fresh and 'superior' crops in the market from November.


We also see this graph, dated Jan 10, 2017; note the steady price.
Image

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 14 Jan 2017 22:53

kiranA wrote:Didnt mean for you to take it so personally. Political leanings bring in wilful ignorance without the person noticing it much.

I believe I was right to call you out on empathy. Because you, like in this post, as well - aggressivley question the intent of anyone who criticize demon and refuse to ponder over the information they present.

There are no black money people and white money people - a man can have both the monies with him. black money is question of discipline and compliance. using demon is like replacing a scalpel with a chain saw.

Mistaking my view for political leanings is an error. The political milieu has turned out to be something I favour - which I never expected. My empathy should not matter to you or anyone else.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kiranA » 14 Jan 2017 22:55

A_Gupta wrote:
kiranA wrote:Do you understand that this not recession induced economic damage but a monetory policy shock induced damage ? this has totally different features. It first starts with collapse in demand especially retail demand and then moves to supply chain in next months. But those ins supply chain such as MSME who handle cash are also immediately effected.

MSEs suffered 50% dip in revenue, 35% drop in revenue post demonetization: All India Manufacturers' Organization .

http://menafn.com/1095180112/MSEs-suffe ... ganization


Dear BRF Trainee kiranA, please answer yes/no to each of the following.

1. The issue we're discussing is a supposed huge impact to "export-oriented activities" in the textile sector as reported by AIMO?(yes/no)?

2. Demonetization has no direct impact on foreign demand. (yes/no)?

3. Weakening rupee mentioned as a problem by AIMO is beneficial to exporters. (yes/no)?

4. On the demand side, in December 2016, Indian exports continued their growth from October and November, as well as compared to December 2015. (yes/no)?

5. We have proven no demand side shock for "export oriented activities". (yes/no)?

Let's start with this much.


1. AIMO is reporting for ALL sectors - not just textile exports - please read the article.
2. Ofcourse yes- we are talking about demand in Indian economy
3. They didnt mention anything about weakening rupee there - did you read at all.
4. and 5. Why are you analyzing export demand ? Also the article is on MSE, they are not the sole exporters. demon has no or minimal effect on corporate players or the big ones - they dont operate much in cash. But they will eventually face some unless public policy comes to support them. They after all have the ear of the govt.

Is your future vision of Indian economy is to be a land where everyone is an employee of large corporate with no survival of small to medium businesses ?
Also I am not sure where the confusion is - demand means demand in Indian economy.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby shiv » 14 Jan 2017 22:57

Met a relative. Was told that on Nov 7 they just "happened to have" Rs 5 lakhs in cash for "investment purposes". It was promptly put in the bank. It will probably draw attention, I guess. I was just wondering how people might plan to invest 5 lakhs in cash - because my investments have always been through bank/cheques/drafts/electronic advice and I really don't know.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jan 2017 23:27

KiranA, it is downright rude of you to intrude into a discussion of an alleged decline in 'export-led activities' in which the textiles sector in particular was hit, and then ask 'why are you discussing exports?'.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby sudarshan » 14 Jan 2017 23:33

kiranA wrote:It was dec 2016 to dec 2015. Apples to apples.


Sorry, this is still not apples to apples. The poster's point was that Dec. is a month where the price crashes as much as 50%. There will definitely be variability year-on-year, as in - you can't claim that the price will crash exactly by 50% every year. So if one year the price drops 30% in December, and the next year it drops 40%, that's a 14% (no, not a 10%) year-on-year change right there (edit: assuming the same base price - hope your math is good enough to figure out these percentage changes). And it's still only a seasonal variation.

If you don't agree with this, you are free to look up vegetable price changes for the past 20 or 30 years. Of course, whatever data you dig up on this, you don't have to post it here, because you've already made it perfectly clear that you "are not running a statistical agency, you are only making random claims, and anybody who disagrees with you should dig up their own data." By the same token, nobody here is going to present data to you - we're none of us running a statistical agency here, so if you disagree with any of our views, go dig up your own data to disprove those views (to yourself, of course).
Last edited by sudarshan on 15 Jan 2017 01:56, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Marten » 14 Jan 2017 23:53

I wonder how so many hardboiled vets can be so easily trolled by an obvious but sophisticated troll.

My assertion is that only those scum with dirty deeds on their hands lost money. These do not include any farmers or cooperatives, just the middlemen who exploit and steal from the farmers. No need to submit any data for self evident facts.


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