Bharat Rakshak Forum Announcement

Hello Everyone,

A warm welcome back to the Bharat Rakshak Forum.

Important Notice: Due to a corruption in the BR forum database we regret to announce that data records relating to some of our registered users have been lost. We estimate approx. 500 user details are deleted.

To ease the process of recreating the user IDs we request members that have previously posted on the BR forums to recognise and identify their posts, once the posts are identified please contact the BRF moderator team by emailing BRF Mod Team with your post details.

The mod team will be able to update your username, email etc. so that the user history can be maintained.

Unfortunately for members that have never posted or have had all their posts deleted i.e. users that have 0 posts, we will be unable to recreate your account hence we request that you re-register again.

We apologise for any inconvenience caused and thank you for your understanding.

Regards,
Seetal

Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
asgkhan
BRFite
Posts: 1320
Joined: 16 Apr 2009 17:19
Location: Helping BRF research how to seduce somali women

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby asgkhan » 06 Mar 2017 12:14

Finally the office ATM has been loaded with 500 and 100 notes. I withdrew 1900 * 5, now have sufficient cash for the next 3 months when it comes to doing chillar business.

Nitesh
BRFite
Posts: 873
Joined: 23 Mar 2008 22:22
Location: Bangalore
Contact:

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Nitesh » 06 Mar 2017 14:28

5 times? Sir ji Just check, max free limit is 4, and it seems you have crossed it

asgkhan
BRFite
Posts: 1320
Joined: 16 Apr 2009 17:19
Location: Helping BRF research how to seduce somali women

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby asgkhan » 06 Mar 2017 14:46

Don't care about the extra fees. The sight of multiple 100s and 500s is enough to bring tears to my eyes. I am all set for next 2-3 months as I dont have to worry about travelling in the city using chillar.

SaraLax
BRFite
Posts: 446
Joined: 01 Nov 2005 21:15
Location: redemption land

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby SaraLax » 06 Mar 2017 16:37

asgkhan wrote:Finally the office ATM has been loaded with 500 and 100 notes. I withdrew 1900 * 5, now have sufficient cash for the next 3 months when it comes to doing chillar business.


Hmm ... strange. I guess this is an Office ATM in a tech park in BLR, Kerala and possibly a Citibank owned one (or was it your salary a/c in CitiBank) ?. Is it the ATM kept by a bank exclusively inside your company office or is it the ATM kept by a bank - inside your Tech Park sort of facility & thus common to more than one entity functioning in the facility ?.

Here in Chennai - it is nearly 4 weeks since all the common ATMs (Citi, HDFC, Canara Bank, SBI, ICICI, Karur Vysya & a few more) in the IT facility where i work have been running in pre-DeMo mode, flush with money (2000s, 500s & 100s) and back to pre-DeMo queue lines outside the ATM for taking out the money. FYI -there are a few thousands of workers in this facility. During December & January - there used to be long queues outside HDFC ATMs (because they were replenished twice each day while others were done only once per day or sometimes once per two days) and people could take out only 4000 per week or so. Often people were taking out money as a pre-cautionary measure rather than for real use.

Neshant
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3922
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Neshant » 08 Mar 2017 09:26

India should shift from rupees to money macks.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... ons?page=1

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9180
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Mar 2017 18:19

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 523184.cms
Dahej: Emboldened by the latest GDP numbers, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday strongly justified his November 8 demonetization decision and said that all the canards of India's economy collapsing that were spread by the critics have been completely defied.

"There were a number of canards spread and attempts were made to create an impression that there would be an apocalypse...the economy would collapse and GDP would plummet. Some people were sure to bear the brunt of his decision. But nothing of this sort happened and India is on a path of fast-paced development," Modi said in Dahej after inaugurating ONGC Petroadditions Ltd's (OPaL) Rs 27,000 crore plant.

The latest GDP data released by the Central Statistical Organization revealed that India had achieved 7% GDP growth in the October-December quarter.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 18076
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Austin » 11 Mar 2017 16:09

CAG to undertake audit of demonetisation fallout

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/ca ... 425191.ece

arun
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8589
Joined: 28 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby arun » 13 Mar 2017 08:15

Results of the Feb-Mar 2017 Assembly elections clearly demonstrate that claims by political parties like the Dynastic Nehru-Gandhi family led Congress and the Trinamool Congress on the degree of the hardship that Currency Demonetisation created for the electorate, was massively over hyped. The solid electoral performance of the architects of Demonetisation, the BJP, shows that the hardship imposed by Demonetisation was viewed as within acceptable limits by the electorate in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur. Regards Punjab, the punishment of the BJP at the hustings was preponderantly because of governance issues rather than the pain of Demonetisation.

Meanwhile Swapan Dasgupta's article on NaMo’s DeMo and the Assembly elections should be essential reading for all belonging to the Dynastic Nehru-Gandhi family led Congress and the Trinamool Congress:

View: From Harvard to House, how notebandi naysayers got it so wrong

arun
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8589
Joined: 28 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby arun » 13 Mar 2017 08:34

I do not believe that Demonetisation was a principal factor in the solid electoral performance of the BJP in the just concluded Feb-Mar 2017 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur. What I do know though, going by the solid electoral performance of the BJP, is that the claimed hardship touted by political parties like Dynastic Nehru-Gandhi family led Congress and Trinamool Congress was clearly overhyped:

‘Opposition’s negative campaign on demonetisation brought people closer to us’: Venkaiah Naidu

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4685
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ShauryaT » 13 Mar 2017 23:42

http://profit.ndtv.com/news/economy/art ... ed-1669136

Were not some folks here saying, withdrawal limits will be there in the future to curtail use of cash and hence BM. Well....

Also, how many more months does the RBI need to compute the deposited figures? If anyone does believe their excuses...

Also, only 15 days left for Amnesty 2 to end. We will see how successful that has been to attract declaration of BM.

Since, we are now in a post shock period, we should be able to begin to make the proper economic impacts, if any.

One thing that was largely expected with the major attempt to arrest BM was its impact on real estate prices. I do not have much information on this score yet, but the rest of 2017, we should track if RE prices did have an impact.

Of course, the long term trends of digitization, which is inescapable and how far the forceful attempts to change behavior have succeeded is another thing to track.

On future trends, especially in light of the political capital the government now has tracking devolution of power, disinvestment, private capital investment, unemployment and growth in private sector jobs will be important metrics to track. So far the trend is towards centralization, strengthening of PSU's in the name of making them efficient and a reliance on classic social doles and government controlled schemes (albeit efficiently). To the government's credit, arresting inflation assisted by drop in oil prices and other minor administrative reforms, along with increased FDI' have kept things going. Hope the new found confidence in government, percolates down to confidence amongst business to invest and create jobs.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9180
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Mar 2017 06:52

RBI report, March 10, 2017
Macroeconomic Impact of Demonetisation- A Preliminary Assessment

VI. Summing Up

Overall, the assessment is that the impact of demonetisation on the real economy has been transient, given the information available so far. The analysis in this paper suggests that demonetisation impacted various sectors of the economy; however, the adverse impact, in general, was short-lived as it was felt mainly in November and December 2016. The impact moderated significantly in January and dissipated by and large by mid-February 2017, reflecting an accelerated pace of remonetisation.

The impact on GVA growth, albeit modest, was felt in Q3 of 2016-17. The organised sector remained largely resilient. The latest CSO estimates suggest that the impact of demonetisation on GVA growth in Q3 of 2016-17 was felt mostly in real estate and construction, but because of stronger growth in agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, and mining, the overall impact on GVA growth was modest. With remonetisation progressing at a fast pace, the adverse impact is expected to have reversed from the latter part of Q4 of 2016-17. GVA growth is estimated to recover significantly in 2017-18.

The 240 bps decline in food inflation during November 2016 to January 2017 was the combined effect of record pulses production, large winter arrivals of vegetables and some fire sales due to decline in demand following cash squeeze. However, inflation excluding vegetables moderated only marginally. Also, inflation excluding food and fuel remained sticky. The headline inflation outlook in the near term will hinge on how food inflation evolves.

With the return of SBNs, currency in circulation declined and deposits with banks surged. This expanded the balance sheet of banks and created large surplus liquidity in the system, which was managed by the RBI mostly through a mix of reverse repo and MSS securities. Reflecting this, the share of ‘investment in government securities’ on the asset side of banks’ balance sheet increased significantly. Large surplus liquidity led to a significant improvement in monetary policy transmission as reflected in a significant decline in deposit and lending interest rates. The sharp increase in low cost CASA deposits by banks is expected to have increased banks’ net interest income. However, this will need to be adjusted against the cost of managing the process of demonetisation. As regards other segments of the financial sector, some NBFCs, especially MFIs, were adversely affected, in terms of disbursals and collection of repayments. However, the situation for most NBFCs began to improve from late December 2016. Jan Dhan accounts increased by 23.3 million post demonetisation, while deposits under Jan Dhan accounts increased by ₹ 187 billion (41 per cent).

The impact of demonetisation on the various segments of the financial market has varied. Overnight call money market rate remained within the policy corridor, but with a softening bias due to surplus liquidity at banks. After initial softening, G-sec yields increased significantly on two occasions, i.e., after the announcement of application of incremental cash reserve ratio (ICRR) and the status quo in monetary policy in December 2016. Thereafter, yields have moved in either direction on account of both domestic and external factors, including the change in monetary policy stance in February 2017, which was largely not expected by market participants.

Reflecting the expected slowdown in sales and earnings, share prices of cash intensive sectors such as automobiles, FMCG, consumer durables and real estate declined sharply in November-December 2016. Most of these sectors have more than recovered the lost ground subsequently. In fact, the consumer durable sector outperformed the overall increase in the stock market post-demonetisation. The impact on the forex market was transitory.

Demonetisation has impacted some segments of the export sector such as readymade garments, and gems and jewellery. The impact, however, was transitory. Imports of gold increased sharply in November, but moderated in December.

There has been a significant improvement in the use of digital modes of payments post demonetisation, although their base is still small.

Overall, demonetisation has had some negative macroeconomic impact, which, however, has been transient as remonetisation has moved at an accelerated pace in last twelve weeks. More importantly, demonetisation is expected to have a positive impact over the medium to long-term. In particular, there is expected to be greater formalisation of the economy with increased use of digital payments. The reduced use of cash will also lead to greater intermediation by the formal financial sector of the economy, which should, inter alia, help improve monetary transmission.

Given the partial information that is available post demonetisation so far, the analysis, especially of growth, is only preliminary in nature. It should, therefore, be possible to make an analysis in greater detail as more data becomes available in the coming months.

Dipanker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2357
Joined: 14 May 2002 11:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Dipanker » 15 Mar 2017 22:02

Remonetization is chugging along nicely. As of February 24, 2017, India's currency in circulation was Rs. 11.64 lakh crore. Apparently between Jan 27 to Feb 24 upto Rs 1.72 lakh crore was added ( Rs 11.64 LC - Rs 9.92 LC ) or about ~RS 6000 crore/day .
Remonetization is likely to go on for a while, that's the impression one gets from the following statement of the minister:
New notes are being printed continuously to fulfil the needs of the public, he said.


Revealed: The Cost Of Printing New 500, 2,000 Rupee Notes

The approximate cost of printing each note of new Rs. 500 is in the range of Rs. 2.87 to Rs. 3.09, and Rs. 3.54 to Rs. 3.77 for Rs. 2,000.

tandav
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 78
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby tandav » 17 Mar 2017 01:47

So how much old demonetized notes actually made its way back to RBI? When will this sacred number be revealed, nation wants to know.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10194
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 18 Mar 2017 02:31

Raids against petrol pumps launched by Income-Tax department in pan-India black money crackdown
With central government continuing the attempt to curb the flow of black money in the country, the Income Tax department has now started countrywide raids on petrol pump owners and LPG distributors. The latest crackdown by the I-T department came in the wake of alleged conversion of demonetised notes of the denomination Rs 500 and Rs 1000 by way of deposits in excess of actual sales, during the implementation of the demonetisation policy.

Officials will be scrutinising the cash books of pump owners, under Section 133A of the I-T act, to ensure that sales corresponded with the deposits made in the pumps during the period when banned old notes were accepted for the purchase of fuels till December 3. Even excesses claimed by owners or distributors as outstanding debts received during the month-long period is being considered as illegal and according to the I-T act the defaulters will have to issue cheque of the amount to the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana along with tax and penalty of 49.90 per cent.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3362
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 18 Mar 2017 06:03

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/rs-6000-crore-and-counting-windfall-from-tax-on-stashed-cash-after-note-ban/articleshow/57698297.cms

Vice-chairman of the special investigation team (SIT) on black money, Justice Arijit Pasayat, said on Friday that after demonetisation, the Centre has collected around Rs 6,000 crore as tax on unexplained cash deposits so far, and the amount could go up.

Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2839
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Kakkaji » 18 Mar 2017 07:11

Plastic push for Rs 10 notes

New Delhi, March 17: The finance ministry has shortlisted three global money makers to supply 1 billion plastic and semi-plastic ten-rupee notes which will be tried out from September.

Top officials said that it has been decided to experiment with one billion notes, of which 400 million will be pure polymer (plastic) notes.

Another 300 million will be a mix of paper and polymer where the polymer layer will be in the middle and the paper layers on the two edges.

The remaining 300 million notes will have the paper layer in the middle and the polymer layers on the edges.

Rishi Verma
BRFite
Posts: 882
Joined: 28 Oct 2016 13:08

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Rishi Verma » 18 Mar 2017 18:38

Reports say Rs 6000 Cr additional tax / levies / penalties collected due to note-bandi - not bad.

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 5492
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby disha » 19 Mar 2017 06:06

Suraj wrote:
...Even excesses claimed by owners or distributors as outstanding debts received during the month-long period is being considered as illegal and according to the I-T act the defaulters will have to issue cheque of the amount to the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Yojana along with tax and penalty of 49.90 per cent...


Imagine some of the BM amount showing up in valid JAM account holders 6 months prior to elections? :rotfl: :twisted: Modi is evil only.

Rishi Verma wrote:Reports say Rs 6000 Cr additional tax / levies / penalties collected due to note-bandi - not bad.


That is Rs. 6000 per account holder for 1 Cr. JAM accounts!!

tandav
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 78
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 08:24

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby tandav » 19 Mar 2017 12:03

Rs 6000 Cr as tax implies around Rs 12000 Cr of Black Money recovered. This is very very small amount as compared to Rs 2-3 Lac Crores windfall to the exchequer arising from Rs 17 Lac Crores of Currency notes that was demonetized.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10194
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 19 Mar 2017 12:41

disha wrote:
Suraj wrote:

Imagine some of the BM amount showing up in valid JAM account holders 6 months prior to elections? :rotfl: :twisted: Modi is evil only.
Rishi Verma wrote:Reports say Rs 6000 Cr additional tax / levies / penalties collected due to note-bandi - not bad.

That is Rs. 6000 per account holder for 1 Cr. JAM accounts!!

I don't think Modi has any intention to redistribute money like that. But direct benefit transfer can literally transfer money into a BPL account holder, though it's really the payment to address access to goods or services that were just subsidized on the supply side previously.

Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 925
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Rishirishi » 21 Mar 2017 04:15

tandav wrote:Rs 6000 Cr as tax implies around Rs 12000 Cr of Black Money recovered. This is very very small amount as compared to Rs 2-3 Lac Crores windfall to the exchequer arising from Rs 17 Lac Crores of Currency notes that was demonetized.


We have to view this in a longterm perspective. Demonitization created a lot of expense for the BM holder. It could be between 15 and 50%. Better to pay tax and deposit it in FD.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 10194
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 22 Mar 2017 01:06

Post Modi's UP victory, analysts sing a different tune on demonetisation
Analysts at top brokerages are changing their tunes on the impact of demonetisation on the economy, including key parameters such as jobs. While the gross domestic product (GDP) data sowed seeds of doubt in the minds of naysayers, the Bharatiya Janata Party's resounding victory in Uttar Pradesh and government formation in four states seem to have turned them into believers.

Recent reports by Edelweiss and Nomura are citing ground surveys and changes in certain in-house indices to say that the ill-effects of note ban, such as fall in growth and loss of jobs, are either fading or did not happen at all. The change of call follows close on the heels of the state election results. If this played on their minds, the analysts did not say it aloud.

More such reviews could be on the way, say Street watchers.

The humor aspect apart, this underscores that the opposition to demonetization from the analyst spectrum was based on their skepticism over the ability of the political firmament to execute.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3362
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 22 Mar 2017 04:40

The govt proposes to limit cash transactions to below Rs 2 lakhs and not 3 lakhs as out lined during the budget presentation.

Kashi
BRFite
Posts: 1987
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Kashi » 22 Mar 2017 05:42

Suraj wrote:Recent reports by Edelweiss and Nomura are citing ground surveys and changes in certain in-house indices to say that the ill-effects of note ban, such as fall in growth and loss of jobs, are either fading or did not happen at all.


:eek: Verbal jugglery at best, either there were ill-effects or there were not. If they did not happen at all then how could they be fading? Did the analysts try and hedge their bets both ways?

ShauryaT
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4685
Joined: 31 Oct 2005 06:06

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby ShauryaT » 22 Mar 2017 20:54

Brain dead ideas have known to win elections not economic results. GoI will continue to struggle to accomplish their desired results. Force can go only so far.

9.29 lakh didn't respond to I-T queries: Jaitley

SaraLax
BRFite
Posts: 446
Joined: 01 Nov 2005 21:15
Location: redemption land

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby SaraLax » 22 Mar 2017 20:57

ShauryaT wrote:Brain dead ideas have known to win elections not economic results. GoI will continue to struggle to accomplish their desired results. Force can go only so far.

9.29 lakh didn't respond to I-T queries: Jaitley


Now we have Verbal flexibility & jugglery from resident members - post election results.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14211
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby svinayak » 22 Mar 2017 21:38

Suraj wrote:Post Modi's UP victory, analysts sing a different tune on demonetisation
Analysts at top brokerages are changing their tunes on the impact of demonetisation on the economy, including key parameters such as jobs. While the gross domestic product (GDP) data sowed seeds of doubt in the minds of naysayers, the Bharatiya Janata Party's resounding victory in Uttar Pradesh and government formation in four states seem to have turned them into believers.

Recent reports by Edelweiss and Nomura are citing ground surveys and changes in certain in-house indices to say that the ill-effects of note ban, such as fall in growth and loss of jobs, are either fading or did not happen at all. The change of call follows close on the heels of the state election results. If this played on their minds, the analysts did not say it aloud.

More such reviews could be on the way, say Street watchers.

The humor aspect apart, this underscores that the opposition to demonetization from the analyst spectrum was based on their skepticism over the ability of the political firmament to execute.


It shows that leftist influence on economic sentiment is still high and needs to be curtailed


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests