Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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Suraj
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 27 Mar 2018 22:50

nam wrote:Demo was a nice little trap laid out by GoI. You don't deposit, you loose the money. You deposit, you lay a paper trail leading back to you and still lose the money.

Either way GoI wins.

Fixed that for you. I'm surprised the press didn't even get that when they talked about '99% of money has been deposited! GoI failed at DeMo!' I stated then that all that's happened is that everyone left a paper trail back to them. The whole 'demo failed because 99% of money came back!' is the dumbest argument I've seen on the matter. GoI *wanted* the paper trail. Now they have all the time to chase it down at a time of their choosing.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 28 Mar 2018 02:56

hanumadu wrote:Just in time for the 2019 elections. :mrgreen:
The Prime Minister’s Office is expecting to unearth illegal deposits worth Rs 3 lakh crore and has directed the Income-Tax department and MCA to work together to ascertain such deposits.

Hope this happens before GE 2019.


I don't really want to inject politics here, but that Rs 3 lakh crores, if not unearthed and disposed of by GE 2019, are a huge incentive for the owners of that Rs 3 lakh crores to try to buy a different government in GE 2019 that will allow them take back those Rs 3 lakh crores (minus a cut, of course, plus election expenses).

This has to happen before GE 2019.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 28 Mar 2018 03:03

Err, try and buy with what ? They can't quite write a cheque on that money, and that's a lot of money - four Rafale deals worth. Once their names are tainted, their contributions become tainted too.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby disha » 28 Mar 2018 03:13

nam wrote:Demo was a nice little trap laid out by GoI. You don't deposit, you loose the money. You deposit, you lay a paper trail leading back to you and still lose the money.

Either way GoI wins.


Modi mentioned that himself in several of his speeches after DeMo and particularly during elections in Guj. He said as much that he has put a tail on large cash depositors post DeMo and also mentioned the benami account.

Of course press have ulterior motives, OR they are just indulging in lazy journalism when they fall into the "DeMo Failed" chorus.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Gus » 28 Mar 2018 06:02

Suraj wrote:Err, try and buy with what ? They can't quite write a cheque on that money, and that's a lot of money - four Rafale deals worth. Once their names are tainted, their contributions become tainted too.


payment will be from the money salvaged. now it makes sense why they did not just not deposit it and burn it.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 28 Mar 2018 07:56

Ok I’m struggling whether to respond because I do not want to encourage politics . But I’ll simply point out the mechanics -elections are still largely cash run. This whole premise argues that it could somehow be done on credit . I find that dubious .

I do ask that responses be carefully considered . Wild CTs about coulda woulda are just politics in disguise and will be deleted .

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby hanumadu » 28 Mar 2018 08:03

A_Gupta wrote:
hanumadu wrote:Just in time for the 2019 elections. :mrgreen:

Hope this happens before GE 2019.


I don't really want to inject politics here, but that Rs 3 lakh crores, if not unearthed and disposed of by GE 2019, are a huge incentive for the owners of that Rs 3 lakh crores to try to buy a different government in GE 2019 that will allow them take back those Rs 3 lakh crores (minus a cut, of course, plus election expenses).

This has to happen before GE 2019.


The 3 lakh crores is probably spread over many many companies that it would be hard for them to organise and coordinate. Each individual entity probably does not have too great an amount to further risk attracting attention to it.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Kashi » 28 Mar 2018 08:41

hanumadu wrote:The 3 lakh crores is probably spread over many many companies that it would be hard for them to organise and coordinate. Each individual entity probably does not have too great an amount to further risk attracting attention to it.


This is one reason that Aadahr-PAN linkage is being opposed. At present many businesses operate multiple bank accounts linked with multiple PANs. Now if linked with aadhar, they all can be traced to a single source and the assets will be viewed and processed singularly. Hence there are a lot of noises about loss of privacy and the rumours about Fin. Min planning to take over bank deposits to overcome NPA problems.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 28 Mar 2018 09:07

Coordination is not needed, any more than the "invisible hand of the market" needs coordination. All it needs is some signaling in the appropriate circles that this BJP government policy can be reversed by the next government if it is made up of the right parties. If there is a market to be had, a market will be made. I guarantee you that the possessors of this USD 46 billion equivalent that is in jeopardy aren't poor even if they lose this money, and the chance of getting most of it back will be an incentive for them. I will also say that it increasingly seems to me that the very wealthy have channels of communication that are not at all visible to the press or the public most of the time. But I will say no more on this topic. I just hope the GoI acts quickly and decisively.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Gus » 28 Mar 2018 19:38

Suraj - last post on this.

You are right about the 'but where is the money now to run elections...it's all locked up' part. but the hope was that the money deposited is salvageable in a friendly govt. it's that hope that drove the creation of these shell companies and depositing of money. otherwise they would have just burned it or took the GKY(?) plan.

many parties have generated slush money already for electioneering. in TN, at TASMAC outlets a 10 Rs extra was demanded from all bottles and it was meant to refill the pool. in many other areas, regional parties still dominate local contracting and money making out of that. Only congress seems to be left out and is probably drawing from reserves and the couple states it still has.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby nandakumar » 28 Mar 2018 20:31

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 28 Mar 2018 21:23, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Going off topic

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 28 Mar 2018 20:58

Ok, clearly going OT into politics now.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Mar 2018 03:18

Cross-post from the Economy thread

http://www.zdnet.com/article/mobile-pay ... sidelines/
"Mobile payments skyrocket in India while banks watch from the sidelines

Digital payments firms like PayTM, Google Tez, and the recent entrant WhatsApp are rapidly pushing credit and debit cards into the background."

The speed at which this has been happening in India is remarkable, but it makes complete sense when you remember that cash was king in the country simply because banks have been excruciatingly slow to bring the 800 million or so unbanked into the financial system. It just didn't make economic sense to them.

Then came two seismic events that transformed things almost overnight. One was the mandatory opening of hundreds of millions of bank accounts in a thrust led by the Modi government that was then linked to a national identification scheme with biometrics. Suddenly, a whole new population received access to digital payments even though they may not have smartphones that allow them to make this happen as yet. But even smartphone adoption is changing rapidly.

Secondly, when the Modi government almost overnight took 86 percent of the existing currency in India out of circulation, it gave one sector an unlikely boost, even if businesses and citizens nationwide were reeling because of a lack of cash to conduct daily activities -- the number of UPI transactions skyrocketed by as much as 57,000 percent to date, according to Mint.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Neshant » 01 Apr 2018 02:03

Digital currency is all about controlling and expropriating a person's earnings by a select few.

Invariably these banksters, govt bureaucrats and so on generate no wealth themselves and are thus dependent on extracting that wealth from the productive elements of society through price fixing (aka interest rate setting) or counterfeiting (aka money printing) or confiscation (aka taxing with no/poor representation).

It's promoted as being for your own good.

The irony is that the more this theft through govt enforced demonetization takes place, the faster people will jump into peer-to-peer and other decentralized forms of crypto-currencies to get away from this theft.

It's a realm that makes taking away the fruits of a person's labor way harder.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kiranA » 01 Apr 2018 02:44

A_Gupta wrote:Cross-post from the Economy thread

http://www.zdnet.com/article/mobile-pay ... sidelines/
"Mobile payments skyrocket in India while banks watch from the sidelines

Digital payments firms like PayTM, Google Tez, and the recent entrant WhatsApp are rapidly pushing credit and debit cards into the background."

The speed at which this has been happening in India is remarkable, but it makes complete sense when you remember that cash was king in the country simply because banks have been excruciatingly slow to bring the 800 million or so unbanked into the financial system. It just didn't make economic sense to them.

Then came two seismic events that transformed things almost overnight. One was the mandatory opening of hundreds of millions of bank accounts in a thrust led by the Modi government that was then linked to a national identification scheme with biometrics. Suddenly, a whole new population received access to digital payments even though they may not have smartphones that allow them to make this happen as yet. But even smartphone adoption is changing rapidly.

Secondly, when the Modi government almost overnight took 86 percent of the existing currency in India out of circulation, it gave one sector an unlikely boost, even if businesses and citizens nationwide were reeling because of a lack of cash to conduct daily activities -- the number of UPI transactions skyrocketed by as much as 57,000 percent to date, according to Mint.


Another catastrophic effect on Indian banks apart from npa is forced opening of loss making bank accounts. These low balance accounts are a drain on banks . The benefits such as digital payments go to private or foreign players. Even then I don'tt think electronic payments are a silver bullet for any economy. Their benefits are real but marginal and wont change tax compliance as very few use it for serious peer to peer transactions such as rent or property purchase etc. They are used mainly for small exchanges within friends or retail purchases which gst is meant to take care anyway.

But if banks collapse due to these accounts being the last straw after npa and demon then any benefit is essentially nullifed several times over.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Apr 2018 08:58

^^^ While of course Jan Dhan Yojana accounts are exempt from this
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 337745.cms

Finance Ministry data shows the country’s largest lender, State Bank of India, collected Rs 1,771 crore during April-November 2017 as charges from customers who did not maintain their minimum monthly average balance in their accounts, according to a report in The Indian Express. This is more than the bank’s July-September quarter net profit of Rs 1,581.55 crore and nearly half of the Rs 3,586 crore it earned as net profit April-September.


Irony.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby kiranA » 01 Apr 2018 09:59

A_Gupta wrote:^^^ While of course Jan Dhan Yojana accounts are exempt from this
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 337745.cms

Finance Ministry data shows the country’s largest lender, State Bank of India, collected Rs 1,771 crore during April-November 2017 as charges from customers who did not maintain their minimum monthly average balance in their accounts, according to a report in The Indian Express. This is more than the bank’s July-September quarter net profit of Rs 1,581.55 crore and nearly half of the Rs 3,586 crore it earned as net profit April-September.


Irony.


Tragic. It really shows banks are hurting with these low deposit accounts but forced not to collect fines due to govt populism. So they extract it a higher rate from people who have enough drive to open these accounts on their own. Anyway SBI is now reducing them.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 240_1.html

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Apr 2018 17:34

Great spin!

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Neshant » 08 Apr 2018 01:43

Trying to keep suckers locked into fiat currency that gets devalued.

-----

India Bans Bitcoin Wallets, Bank Funding, All Cryptocurrency Services

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04- ... y-services

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby sanjaykumar » 08 Apr 2018 05:17

Perhaps these suckers should first set up schools hospitals defence forces infrastructure. Then proceed with a currency even more airy fairy than bank notes.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby EswarPrakash » 08 Apr 2018 08:02

Neshant wrote:Trying to keep suckers locked into fiat currency that gets devalued.

-----

India Bans Bitcoin Wallets, Bank Funding, All Cryptocurrency Services

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04- ... y-services


The comments on that article explain quite clearly what type of insects invest in Bitcoin and the fairy sprinkle currencies

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Mollick.R » 08 Apr 2018 10:47

Neshant wrote:Digital currency is all about controlling and expropriating a person's earnings by a select few.

Invariably these banksters, govt bureaucrats and so on generate no wealth themselves and are thus dependent on extracting that wealth from the productive elements of society through price fixing (aka interest rate setting) or counterfeiting (aka money printing) or confiscation (aka taxing with no/poor representation).

It's promoted as being for your own good.

The irony is that the more this theft through govt enforced demonetization takes place, the faster people will jump into peer-to-peer and other decentralized forms of crypto-currencies to get away from this theft.

It's a realm that makes taking away the fruits of a person's labor way harder.


Generally avoid commenting on posts until it adds some value to the discussion.

But here feeling tempted.
Sir, your statement sounds like I'm hearing an ultra red's speech given to some left virus infected college campus. :rotfl:
Particularly this part "more this theft through govt enforced demonetization takes place,"

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 08 Apr 2018 12:20

GoI is doing the right thing by clamping down on manic speculation in assorted blockchain derived 'currencies'.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Suraj » 08 Apr 2018 13:11

Neshant, please post your stuff in your own thread, not in here. Your posts above will be removed.

Edit: Thread cleaned up.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Neshant » 09 Apr 2018 12:08

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 09 Apr 2018 12:23, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Poster given 1 week to cool off.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Vasu » 09 Apr 2018 12:25

May have been posted elsewhere, but didn't see this in this thread.

From Jan 2017 to Feb 2018, a total of INR 6.44 cr in fake currency has been seized from across the country. As one would expect, the border states lead in maximum seizures.

Gujarat tops India in fake currency seizure

A total of Rs 2.31 crore were seized in the state from January 2017 to February 2018 against the total seizure of Rs 6.77 crore across India, accounting for 34% of the total fake currency seized. Mizoram comes a distant second with Rs 1.23 crore worth fake notes followed by Uttar Pradesh (Rs 1.21 crore).

In India, 25568 currency notes of Rs 500 having total worth of Rs 5,11,36,000 and 33304 currency notes of Rs 2000 worth of Rs 1,66,52,000 were seized.

“Most accused caught for circulating fake currency had roots in West Bengal and Bangladesh. These fake notes are routed to bigger cities of Gujarat and thereon supplied to Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore to weaken the economy,” said officials.


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