Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

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A_Gupta
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 03 Sep 2018 21:54

New Delhi: Small business owners continue to feel the pressure of demonetisation and GST as their loan default margin doubled over the last year — from Rs 8,249 crore by March 2017 to Rs 16,118 crore by March 2018, according to figures revealed by an RTI filed by Indian Express.


https://www.news18.com/news/business/tw ... 65065.html

Katare
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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Katare » 04 Sep 2018 05:05

Tax terrorism! Loving it!
Last edited by Katare on 04 Sep 2018 23:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby A_Gupta » 04 Sep 2018 08:13

RBI "Mint Street Memo"
https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/MSM_Mintstreetmemos13.aspx

II.3 Reserve Bank measures to support MSME credit

Given the difficulties faced by MSMEs in debt repayments after demonetisation, the Reserve Bank announced a series of measures to provide some relief. The prudential norms were relaxed (on November 21, 2016) by providing an additional 60 days for repayment of dues, beyond what is applicable for loans to be considered as sub-standard for running working capital account, for accounts with sanctioned limit of ₹ 1 crore or less. The relaxation was extended (on December 28, 2016) by providing additional 30 days for repayment of dues. On December 29, 2016, the RBI advised banks to use the facility of providing ‘additional working capital limit’ to their MSME borrowers to overcome the cash flow mismatches. This was a one-time measure valid up to March 31, 2017.

Recognising the potential gains from transition of MSMEs to the formal sector, the Reserve Bank announced relief measures for GST-registered MSMEs with aggregate exposure of less than ₹ 250 million (as on January 31, 2018), which were standard as on August 31, 2017. Loans of such borrowers were to be declared NPA only if the dues (outstanding as on September 1, 2017 and payments due between September 1, 2017 and January 31, 2018) to the banks/NBFCs were more than 180 days past original repayment date. The measure is expected to have provided respite to 0.14 million borrowers whose accounts were standard in August 2017 but would have become NPA in January 2018. This is also estimated to have reduced the gross NPA amount of the banks by ₹ 129 billion (SIDBI, 2018).

Further, having regard to the input credit linkages and ancillary affiliations and to encourage formalisation of the MSME sector, the Reserve Bank in its developmental and regulatory policies of June 2018, temporarily allowed banks and NBFCs to classify their exposure as per the 180 days past due criterion, to all MSMEs, including those not registered under GST, as a ‘standard asset’. From January 1, 2019 onwards, the 180-day past due criterion in respect of dues payable by GST registered MSMEs would be aligned to the extant norm of 90-day past due criterion in a phased manner, whereas for entities that do not get registered under the GST by December 31, 2018, the asset classification in respect of dues payable from January 1, 2019 onwards would immediately revert to the 90-day norm. In February 2018, RBI also announced to remove the credit cap for loans between ₹ 50 million and ₹ 100 million for MSME services sector borrowers for consideration under priority sector.


Even with the above, "...loan default margin doubled over the last year — from Rs 8,249 crore by March 2017 to Rs 16,118 crore by March 2018" ????

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby arshyam » 04 Sep 2018 21:16

A different data point that shows things are getting back to normal.

NPA situation in microfinance sector eases in Tamil Nadu - The Hindu

Back to pre-demonetisation level of 1% of all loans disbursed after February 2016

Image

Tamil Nadu’s non-performing asset (NPA) situation in the microfinance sector has returned to the pre-demonetisation level of 1% of all loans disbursed after February 2016, as of June 30, 2018, according to data from Microfinance Institutions Network (MFIN).

The State has around 45 formal institutional lenders and 13 members of MFIN, which lend to the microfinance segment. Tamil Nadu has a gross loan portfolio of ₹19,500 crore. MFIN members account for ₹4,917 crore.

The State fared better than the national average in terms of the portfolio at risk (PAR), a metric which represents the proportion of a microfinance institution’s total gross outstanding loan portfolio which is at risk of default.

When it came to PAR for over 30 days, Tamil Nadu accounted for just 1% of loans disbursed after February 2016, as of June 30, 2018, according to the data. At the national level, the metric stood at 3.2%.

Data from credit bureau CRIF High Mark Credit Information Services also confirms the trend. According to the firm, PAR for over 30 days is now 0.98% for Tamil Nadu, down from 2.15% in September 2017.

The microfinance PAR for over 30 days stood at 0.37% for Tamil Nadu in September 2016, and jumped to 14% as on March 2017, following the move to demonetise high-value currency notes.
Quick recovery

“Demonetisation hit repayment in the microfinance sector across the country. Lenders turned cautious because of rising [number of] defaults. However, now, Tamil Nadu has recovered faster than the other States, and the microfinance sector will be back on the growth track,” said Harsh Shrivastava, CEO, MFIN.

“The microfinance sector in the State has stood the test of demonetisation and other uncertainties well,” said an industry official who did not wish to be named. He also expected disbursements to go up from here on, as the NPA situation had improved.

Mr. Shrivastava pointed out that as more players enter the sector, improved investor confidence thanks to proper regulations and better transparency would support the growth story going forward.

He also noted that the average ticket size of microfinance loans was rising.

According to data from CRIF High Mark Credit Information Services, the average ticket size in Tamil Nadu was ₹26,000 in the first quarter of 2018-19 — up 11% year-on-year. Tamil Nadu continued to be the largest market for microfinance lending, accounting for 15%, it added.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby vinod » 04 Sep 2018 21:43

NITI AAYOG CHIEF ISSUES STUNNING DEMONETISATION DEFENCE


EXPLOSIVE: Niti Aayog VC Rajiv Kumar Issues Unprecedented Defence Of Demonetisation, Says India's Growth Slowdown Resulted From Raghuram Rajan's Hawkish Policy On NPA Identification, And Delivers Chidambaram-defying GDP Growth Forecast

    Rajiv Kumar, the Vice Chairman of the Niti Aayog has issued a sensational defence of demonetisation in light of two huge newsbreaks regarding India's economy last week
    Kumar has put forth that demonetisation had numerous benefits, and, on the other hand, didn't cause a slowdown in India's growth
    He has instead attributed this slowdown in growth to the NPA identification mechanism adopted by the RBI under former Governor Raghuram Rajan, and ensuing drop in bank credit

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 06 Sep 2018 13:59

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 668725.cms
Cut the politics, D-Street says cash ban was worth it & why!
Though the initial blow of demonetisation was indeed brutal for the economy, the country has revived and the whole episode has impacted the country positively in terms of financial and growth front, says Anindya Banerjee, currency analyst, Kotak Securities.

The prices paid by the public 18 months ago in the form of long queues and other inconveniences are all bearing fruit now, says he.

The fruits he is referring to are these: a serious boost to financialisation of savings, big jump in income-tax compliance, a drop in counterfeit currency in circulation and faster digitisation of the cash economy.

In a recent interaction with ETMarkets.com, Radhika Gupta, CEO, Edelweiss Asset Management, said rapid digitisation and demonetisation worked as a boon for the industry. “We believe that the story of financialisation of assets emerged post note ban in November 2016,” Gupta added.

SBI Economic Research in a detailed analysis listed out the benefits, especially a major shift in Indians’ investment pattern –from physical assets to financial products.

[*] Jump in tax returns
[*] Drop in counterfeit currency
[*] Shell companies under watch
[*] Drop in circulation of high value notes

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby Neshant » 18 Oct 2018 07:46

pankajs wrote:Cut the politics, D-Street says cash ban was worth it & why!


Financial firms will always want people to be forced to put hard earned money into their hands so they can siphon off commissions.

That's because financial, accounting..etc firms don't really produce anything of value.

Their entire livelyhood depends on expropriation of earnings from others.

That can't be good for the economy.

Free market principles say, people should keep the money they have earned. When they keep the wealth they've earned, they are motivated to work harder and earn more of it to achieve a better life.

By contrast when more and more financial chicanery crops up to siphon off that wealth, its destroys that natural human instinct to work hard, save and get ahead.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby venkat_r » 15 Nov 2018 03:36

vinod wrote:NITI AAYOG CHIEF ISSUES STUNNING DEMONETISATION DEFENCE


EXPLOSIVE: Niti Aayog VC Rajiv Kumar Issues Unprecedented Defence Of Demonetisation, Says India's Growth Slowdown Resulted From Raghuram Rajan's Hawkish Policy On NPA Identification, And Delivers Chidambaram-defying GDP Growth Forecast

    Rajiv Kumar, the Vice Chairman of the Niti Aayog has issued a sensational defence of demonetisation in light of two huge newsbreaks regarding India's economy last week
    Kumar has put forth that demonetisation had numerous benefits, and, on the other hand, didn't cause a slowdown in India's growth
    He has instead attributed this slowdown in growth to the NPA identification mechanism adopted by the RBI under former Governor Raghuram Rajan, and ensuing drop in bank credit


Do not know how shameless can these guys can get to..

[youtube]https://youtu.be/wxLJZyuba5E[/youtube]
https://youtu.be/wxLJZyuba5E

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby disha » 15 Nov 2018 13:47

^NatGeo is a vatican shill

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby venkat_r » 16 Nov 2018 03:50

Let's. Not get too much into name calling and just review what's been said -

Easy to discount everyone, economists like Raghuram Rajan and co. And assume that Modi got it right, can we be a bit open minded to understand rather than dismiss who gives a good argument with proofs

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby venkat_r » 16 Nov 2018 03:53

https://youtu.be/_rJtMfi3cp0

Not a Vatican analysis

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby sarang » 16 Nov 2018 16:32

venkat_r wrote:https://youtu.be/_rJtMfi3cp0

Not a Vatican analysis


Is it even a analysis?

or just throwing figures.. :shock:

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 16 Nov 2018 17:49

Dhruv Rathee is the benchmark for fairness?

I have only watched one of his video on the statue of unity and I was so disgusted by the middle that I closed it right then and there. It was not so much as mis-stating facts as much as deliberate misleading framing of the issue.

He is an out and out propagandist given how he choose to frame the issue. It was not a mistake but a deliberate twist.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby venkat_r » 16 Nov 2018 20:54

Well do not get frustrated that he is not towing your line, and if you have anything that disputes his argument, please put that forward

If you are disgusted, with that it either means that he is so totally off base or that has touched a raw nerve, all I would say is give it time and keep an open mind and go through it again.
Last edited by venkat_r on 16 Nov 2018 21:01, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby venkat_r » 16 Nov 2018 21:00

This is a big video - interview of Arun Shourie, so not a Vatican source. Even if you do not like him, I would say watch that, and his analysis on the economy.

https://youtu.be/vVGMY9i9vY4

Watch the first 30 minutes - it is pretty informative.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby pankajs » 16 Nov 2018 21:01

A person who compares cost in 2018 with 2000/2008 or some such date is fair and unbiased?

Some one who considers Dhruv Rathee as fair and balanced is as biased to one side as Dhruv Rathee. Thank you for sharing your thought process! Couldn't have been clearer.

My advice to you is also the same
venkat_r wrote:Well do not get frustrated that he is not < if we are not> towing your line, and if you have anything that disputes his argument, please put that forward

If you are disgusted, with that it either means that he is so totally off base or that has touched a raw nerve,all I would say is give it time and keep an open mind and go through it again.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby venkat_r » 16 Nov 2018 21:55

Oh so finally you were able to pick one small piece like prices comparison from 2018 and 2008 and want to dismiss that, and by the way I have not asked you to watch his statue video but to watch the demonstration one, as this thread is for that.

Nice way to discredit people who have an opinion that does not agree with your existing beliefs!

Also if you are going to not listen to economists like Raghuram Rajan and Arun Shourie and listen to a Chaiwallah on economics, then you should not be the complaining about standards here

Govt with all their might could not give any data till date to support their argument and has been shifting goal posts - do not have to take my word, listen to Arun Shiurie in the above video.

If this was a great achievement like some of you believe, then do you really think the Modi and the BJP with all their spin masters would let an opportunity go not to pomp about it? They would be shouting from the rooftops, start each election campaign with this success story and have Harward or some such University start a case study on the success of demo - do they even dare to do that kind of case study in India even in a controlled environment?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby krisna » 16 Nov 2018 22:26

Image

Image

Image
Image

many of these are self explanatory. There are plenty of them if one searches for them.

If we check for individual states and local municipal bodies lot of them had increase in tax collections. many individual and companies paid off their dues due to the demonetisation. There was a windfall for many big cities.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby krisna » 16 Nov 2018 22:29

http://zeenews.india.com/economy/econom ... 55916.html
RBI board member S Gurumurthy said Thursday the economy would have collapsed but for the November 2016 demonetisation because high denomination notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 were being used to purchase real estate and gold.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby krisna » 16 Nov 2018 22:34

At its peak, the high denomination currency was something like 86% of total currency. This is unacceptable in any economy. Majority of Indians esp low middle class and poor - don't use 500 or 1000 ruppees notes in their daily transactions. mainly it is lower denomination ones. They use cash upto 100 rs as maximum most of the times. This is well known.

Only the miniscule rest of Indians(out of 1.2 billion- some few millions) esp in cities where cost of living is high, one needs 500 or 1000. even this is not used daily.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby krisna » 16 Nov 2018 22:40

Image

I don't understand this picture. something significant in 2012 which looks out of the ordinary to my untrained eye

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby krisna » 17 Nov 2018 03:37

IIRC correctly there was JAM trinity- Jan dhan aadhar and mobile. every Indian had bank accounts in a little over 1 year. It created world record in giving bank accounts to almost every Indian. Along with other benefits. Aadhar revolution started. Mobile revolution began.Demonetisation done with almost all Indians to the poorest having an account. Initially, there were over 75% vacant accounts with little or no money.

post demonetisation and continuing -->75% zero balance accounts have zoomed to less than 25% zero accounts. virtually everyone has awareness of UPI payment system. Black money has reduced considerably post demonetization and GST and benami properties act etc. It is going to reduce further in time.


people forget black money definition-- it simply taxes not paid to govt --- majority of it. Going thru banking system made it easier to track the flow of money if illegal. many paid taxes. hence made it legal. Lot of municipal local bodies and states had major tax windfall during this exercise. Once a person is in the net-- IT has the luxury of 7 years to probe the assets. Lot of questions to be answered and probing will continue.
The main issue is the lack of personnel in IT dept to pursue vigorously all the deposits made to its logical end. The judiciary is not on board to help IT.

overall demonetization is a shock which is well deserved to reset Indian economy on firm footing along with other measures like GST JAm trinity and many other social welfare schemes which have reduced corruption of middlemen to significant levels. savings in upwards of over 75000 crores and counting for years to come.
demonetization is not stand alone stuff. It is combined with other measures.

detractors fail to see this connection or purposely ignore this fact.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby krisna » 17 Nov 2018 03:39

In judiciary <10% have filed assets declaration. This is voluntary. If it becomes mandatory. Imagine the effect on politicians and other criminals. Also aadhar and pancard linking will help stem the black money etc. But as usual judiciary is playing games in this.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby arshyam » 17 Nov 2018 08:28

venkat_r wrote:Also if you are going to not listen to economists like Raghuram Rajan and Arun Shourie and listen to a Chaiwallah on economics, then you should not be the complaining about standards here

The previous govt had economists all over the place: PM, Finance minister, CEA (the same RR himself), NAC advisers, Planning commission, etc. How did that work for us and the economy overall? Forget runaway inflation, black money whitewashing via P-notes, real estate going out of reach for the middle class, etc., what was the fiscal deficit through the two terms of that govt?

Like it or not, there is a well-deserved healthy scepticism to opinions of "economists". It was also an economist that came up with the term "Hindu rate of growth" to which my school economics textbook sang peans as the best thing ever. That, and "hum honge kamyaab, ek din" was the sum total of our economic policy.

Lastly, a chaiwalla may only serve chai, but has to manage his/her own logistics train with no other professional help. It may look trivial to us, but in reality is not. So let's not dismiss chaiwallahs outright - they are more familiar with fundamental problems that need fixing than Oxford, Columbia or Booth types.

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby arshyam » 17 Nov 2018 08:38

I'd love to listen to Arun Shourie had he been intellectually honest with himself post-2014. He allowed his personal angst cloud his professional judgment and has been only critical of govt policy. This is from a person who had a hand in steering our economy through the post-Pokhran sanctions and kicking off the growth story and seeing our second ever surplus budget (of course Yashwant Sinha should also get credit for this). Given this experience, his criticisms would have been useful for course correction of current govt policies. But since he is on some personal crusade of finding fault with everything this govt does, most of which go into the political realm than economics, his words are completely dismissed even if they have some validity.

Like the kids story where a boy who keeps shouting about the tiger, and eventually when a tiger indeed shows up, no one listens to him. At some point, a tiger will show up, wonder who'll be credible enough to issue warnings then?

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Re: Currency Demonetisation and Future course of Indian Economy

Postby JayS » 17 Nov 2018 17:42

^^ pankajs and venkar_r, Please desist from making it a personal fight, you two. Keep it to the point. I am cleaning up useless posts.


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