Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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ShauryaT
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ShauryaT » 17 Apr 2018 16:35

For the currency shortage, I think there maybe overissue of the Rs. 2000 note taking a lion's share of the overall notes in circulation and correspondingly less in lower denominations. The government is also trying to control the overall amount of liquidity creating a cash crunch, especially of much need lower denominations?

We are at 1+ year since deomon and one of the key goals of GoI was to reduce the cash component of the money supply as a % of GDP. That objective is coming under pressure.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vinod » 17 Apr 2018 16:55

I think if there is a hint of Rs.2000 being demonetised, then the money will come back into the system very quickly!!

I think somebody(group) is hoarding cash gradually for releasing during the election time. I bet we will see more paid marches and strikes in the run up to election. For that, cash is needed!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 17 Apr 2018 18:36

Hope Govt. takes quick action. When people get inconvenienced, people lash out at Govt. because we are such a babu controlled society. They see only they are being in discomfort and rich people living fine.

FYI

Tanvi Shukla
‏ @tanvishukla

@sanjeevsanyal tells @MirrorNow the cause of the sudden spurt is unknown but roughly 45k crore was withdrawn in last 3weeks. Unusual demand in #Karnataka and telangana. #CashCrunch
Last edited by vijayk on 17 Apr 2018 19:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 17 Apr 2018 19:10

Electrosteel first company to be resolved under Insolvency code.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 799142.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby VinodTK » 17 Apr 2018 19:27

From Bloomberg: India May Give Freer Rein to Rupee After Making U.S. FX List
India’s addition to the U.S. Treasury’s monitoring list for currency manipulation makes it more likely the Reserve Bank of India will give freer rein to the rupee when it rises against the dollar, analysts say.

India increased its purchases of foreign currency last year and has a “significant” trade surplus with the U.S., the Treasury noted in its semi-annual report on foreign-exchange practices released in Washington on Friday. The rupee has been the second-worst performing Asian currency this year, dropping 2.4 percent against the dollar, after strengthening 6.4 percent in 2017.

Here’s what analysts said:

Less Intervention

Craig Chan, global head of EM currency strategy at Nomura Holdings Inc.:

It’s possible Indian authorities will feel more pressure to refrain from intervening to stem gains in the rupee when it starts strengthening
India does have one of the strongest FX reserve positions in the region
Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.:

There’s very little chance of India being named as a manipulator in the future, given that it runs persistent current-account deficits, Goh writes in note
While the RBI is unlikely to cease FX intervention activity entirely, it will likely scale back the amount to move below the 2% of GDP threshold, he says in interview; that means average net FX purchases will have to stay below $4b a month
When portfolio inflows pick up, the INR could strengthen more, and at times when the rupee comes under pressure, the central bank may limiting the extent of its weakness by utilizing some of the reserves, Goh says in interview
Heng Koon How, head of markets strategy, and Alvin Liew, senior economist, at United Overseas Bank Ltd.:

With this attention from the U.S. Treasury, the probability of INR strength going forward is even less, Heng and Liew write in note; rising oil prices could cause India’s current-account deficit to widen as the nation imports most of its energy needs
Fleeting Appearance

Divya Devesh, Asia FX strategist at Standard Chartered Plc:

Given India’s persistent current-account deficit and slight INR overvaluation, the risk of India being named a currency manipulator in the future remains extremely low
India will likely drop off the monitoring list in the coming year, given a probable widening of the current-account shortfall and more modest capital inflows reducing reserves accumulation
Frances Cheung, head of Asia macro strategy at Westpac Banking Corp:

Being on the U.S. watchlist may not exert a significant impact on the rupee, apart from an initial reaction
The RBI’s forward book has fallen back since last September and it’s highly unlikely that India will meet the second criteria – a current-account surplus – anytime soon
The U.S. Treasury said in its report that the INR isn’t deemed undervalued by the International Monetary Fund
Thailand, Malaysia Next?

Masakatsu Fukaya, emerging-market currency trader at Mizuho Bank Ltd:

Even though Thailand wasn’t added to monitoring list, the U.S. is considering expanding the number of nations covered by its semi-annual FX report, meaning Thailand could be added in the next report in October
“Personally, it was a bit of surprise that India was added to the monitoring list”
ANZ’s Goh

Treasury said in the report it may look beyond the U.S.’s 12 major trading partners at the next report, meaning Thailand and Malaysia could be put on the monitoring list in October, Goh writes in note

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 17 Apr 2018 21:00

vijayk wrote:Hope Govt. takes quick action. When people get inconvenienced, people lash out at Govt. because we are such a babu controlled society. They see only they are being in discomfort and rich people living fine.

FYI

Tanvi Shukla
‏ @tanvishukla

@sanjeevsanyal tells @MirrorNow the cause of the sudden spurt is unknown but roughly 45k crore was withdrawn in last 3weeks. Unusual demand in #Karnataka and telangana. #CashCrunch


Karnataka elections. Government should announce demonetization of Rs. 2000 notes :-)

Others should move on to UPI based mobile payments. Only #mediapimps and their political cohorts are inconvenienced.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 17 Apr 2018 21:33

https://www.firstpost.com/india/atms-ru ... 35683.html
ATMs run dry: RBI, finance ministry were warned of cash crunch in March, but bank didn't act on Andhra tipoff

Almost one-and-half months before the currency crisis exploded causing much distress to the aam aadmi, the Andhra Pradesh government had warned the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Ministry of Finance and the State Bank of India (SBI) about the lurking threat. Top sources said the Andhra Pradesh chief secretary Dinesh Kumar had written a communique on 9 March, 2018 about the currency crunch in certain pockets of the state and subsequently the Centre asked the RBI to take appropriate action.

Representational image of people queueing up before an ATM. PTI
Representational image of people queueing up before an ATM. PTI
When contacted Kumar confirmed that he had written the letter to all three — RBI, finance ministry and SBI.


Govt. needs to fire a lot of finance min. officials including Jaitley for their incompetence. This affects business environment.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 17 Apr 2018 21:37

ShauryaT wrote:For the currency shortage, I think there maybe overissue of the Rs. 2000 note taking a lion's share of the overall notes in circulation and correspondingly less in lower denominations. The government is also trying to control the overall amount of liquidity creating a cash crunch, especially of much need lower denominations?

We are at 1+ year since deomon and one of the key goals of GoI was to reduce the cash component of the money supply as a % of GDP. That objective is coming under pressure.


Current currency in circulation is actually more than 18lakh Cr which is more than even pre-demo era.

It it highly possible that a large amount of cash is being pulled by election related activities in KA.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 17 Apr 2018 21:46


vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 17 Apr 2018 22:52

Image

Look at the graph how the whole thing went down hill after 2010 and now the recovery

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 17 Apr 2018 23:27

India GDP to grow 7.3% this fiscal; demonetisation, GST effects over: World Bank
The World Bank today forecast a growth rate of 7.3 per cent for India this year and 7.5 per cent for 2019 and 2020, and noted that the country’s economy has recovered from the effects of demonetisation and the Goods and Services Tax. “Growth is expected to accelerate from 6.7 in 2017 to 7.3 per cent in 2018 and to subsequently stabilise supported by a sustained recovery in private investment and private consumption,” the World Bank said in its twice-a-year South Asia Economic Focus.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 18 Apr 2018 12:10

If you are in business or a professional like a doctor/lawyer etc and not a salaried person your tax return for Rs 5 Lakhs in most of the cases means your actual income is several times of that. A very low base allows people like that to simply file a return for a small amount and "manage" the department and enjoy life. The problem with present IT system is that it only properly recovers the tax from salaried class. No one else really pays. This the problem and reason for heartburn for many in the middle class.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 18 Apr 2018 18:07

That is the idea of cash less transactions. Reduce cash economy to make it a level playing field

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JohnTitor » 18 Apr 2018 18:23

Cash less won't happen in India unless people are forced into it. Like I've been saying he 2000 and 500 notes have to be withdrawn. Over time, the highest denomination must be brought down to 20.

Yes, I know that with this proposal the highest denomination based on GDP and currency is much higher in developed countries, but India is a country where businesses don't pay their fair share of taxes. The property prices in India should be an indication of how much tax people are avoiding. Most salaried people cannot afford buying property in Bangalore, but you still see property changing hands.

If the official figure of 90% of the working population earning less than 5lac is true, then there shouldn't have been buyers.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 18 Apr 2018 22:37

Isn't GST one way to bring these businesses to pay tax?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 19 Apr 2018 00:20

Only business tax. They can still avoid IT. That is why you need to match business tax with IT and Adhaar comes into play. The only people IMO who may be avoiding tax (IT) now are those that are self-employed like doctors, lawyers, traders, CAs, etc.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 19 Apr 2018 00:25

If most of the payments are via Checks/Cards, they can be brought into IT net

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Hari Seldon » 19 Apr 2018 07:30

Was chatting with an entrepreneur friend who is in the 'RegTech' industry - regulatory tech. The next big thing after finTech or so the pitch goes.

The vast maze of compliance requirements for orgs of all shades - firms, non-profits, edu institutions etc. - necessitates a 'product platform' that automates tracking and where feasible filing of compliance related forms with a mystifying proliferation of sarkari agencies at different levels.

Thus for instance, if you use a crane on site then it must pass inspection and have its certificate renewed every 6 months! Having a a power generator means compliance filings with the envmt ministry for smoke emissions among others! He computed a firm like Samsung India with manufg ops in India has over 5k filings to do every year.

No wonder most orgs are out of compliance technically, vulnerable to baboonocratic venality, discretionary harassment, inspector raj and all that. And the dream of make in inida remains a pipe-dream as of now, partly due to this obscene burden. Or so I'm told.

Just putting this point oyt there (and here). Only.

Peace.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 19 Apr 2018 16:28

https://www.firstpost.com/india/cash-cr ... 37403.html

Cash crunch: How Rajasthan ATS intercepted the hawala syndicate that's making Indian ATMs run dry

He was carrying an empty blue bag and had a smartphone tucked in his pocket. He was intercepted by another man with a yellow bag on his shoulder. What transpired during the brief conversation is not known, but a spotter shadowing the man watched them pulling out their phones and showing something to each other. Subsequently, the bags were exchanged and they disappeared in the crowded lanes. No one else noticed the pair that foggy morning of mid-January 2018.

The watcher, a trained operative from Rajasthan Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS), immediately called his controller and reported the event that unfolded before his eyes. The officer sitting hundreds of miles away in a command centre pored over existing intelligence files, examining similar interactions that were reported by the Human Intelligence (HUMINT) few days back, and decided to launch a sustained surveillance.

This was the beginning of 'Operation Kuber' that months later culminated into a massive haul exposing a deep-rooted hawala network in the country that was spreading its tentacles after demonetisation in November 2016.

The name for this shadowy operation was aptly chosen as Kuber, which means 'God of Wealth' and the ATS sleuths were tracking those moving illegal and unaccounted cash from one state to another.


The sudden surge in withdrawal by the aam aadmi is one aspect of the problem, however, hawala syndicates crawling back to business is a serious concern when the government itself had revealed that cash including new currency notes of about Rs 110 crore were seized immediately after demonetisation.

Within weeks, the ATS team gathered evidence from chatter that the hawala network was active in at least four states — Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. A huge amount of cash was being moved from one place to another at regular intervals.

“When we say regular interval that means one transaction in six-seven days. The (delivery of) consignment by the hawala operators was conducted as a normal routine. In the hawala network, the operators typically handle the transporters from a vantage point and the identity of the transporter and the receiver is kept secret," a top source revealed.

What the intelligence gathering mission of 'Operation Kuber' revealed was startling and overwhelming. The cash was being moved by unsuspecting mules through public transport and 'chinh' (identity) of the transporter was being verified through mobile phones. At least two nodal points in Rajasthan were identified, ATS DIG Vikas Kumar told Firstpost.


"The origin of the cash was Delhi. Bhilwara and Udaipur were two nodal points for further transportation of the cash. Their modus operandi was unique. The person who picked up the bag full of cash used to show a particular signature on his mobile phones. The person handing over the cash and the receiver too had a similar signature that was sent by the syndicate through WhatsApp messenger. In layman language, it is called 'chinh dena' (establishing identity). There was no need for them to reveal each other's identity, just the message containing signature was enough. We started tracking them from the place of origin," Kumar said.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 19 Apr 2018 17:24

Supratik wrote:Only business tax. They can still avoid IT. That is why you need to match business tax with IT and Adhaar comes into play. The only people IMO who may be avoiding tax (IT) now are those that are self-employed like doctors, lawyers, traders, CAs, etc.


GST can give estimate of goods/services sold by the business and hence can be on hook for IT.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 19 Apr 2018 17:45

Vighnaraj Kuloor
‏ @VighnarajK
20m
Due to severe crisis in the Indian Economy, air passenger traffic grew at 28% YOY in March 18. Let us not forget that tractor sale for March 18 grew by about 45% YOY due to agrarian crisis @muglikar_ @rishibagree
1 reply 42 retweets 59 likes


https://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.c ... 8/63577552
Mahindra Farm Equipment sales up 50% at 26,958 tractors in March
The total tractor sales domestic as well as exports during March 2018 were at 28,277 units, against 19,337 units for the same period last year.

Home-grown automaker's farm equipment sector, Mahindra Farm Equipment, on Monday announced its tractor sales numbers for March 2018.

The company sold 26,958 units in domestic market in March 2018, against 17,973 units during March 2017, an increase of 50 per cent.

The total tractor sales domestic as well as exports during March 2018 were at 28,277 units, against 19,337 units for the same period last year.

Exports for the month stood at 1,319 ­­units.


Commenting on the month’s performance, Rajesh Jejurikar, president - Farm Equipment Sector, Mahindra & Mahindra, said: “In FY 18, we have sold over 3 lakh tractors in India setting a new benchmark. The domestic sales in March 2018 were at 26,958 tractors with a growth of 50 per cent over the same month last year."

"We have seen a good momentum in Q4 and hope to see it continue next year too. In the exports market, we have sold 1,319 tractors.”

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 19 Apr 2018 17:48

https://www.indiainfoline.com/article/n ... 022_1.html
Escorts reports stellar 67% yoy tractor volume growth in March 2018, stock up 5.5%

Escorts Limited (Escorts), one of India’s leading tractor manufacturers, reported 65% yoy growth in domestic tractor sales in March 2018. It sold 11,557 tractors in March 2018 in the domestic market against 7,014 tractors in March 2017. Export sales were up 3.6x. Escorts exported 233 tractors in March 2018 against 65 tractors in March 2017. Total sales, which includes exports and imports, were up 67% yoy at 11,790 units in March 2018. For the full year (FY18), Escorts sold 80,417 tractors against 63,786 in FY17, implying growth of 26% yoy.

Tractor sales have been on an upswing for past several months due to two successive years of satisfactory monsoon, improved crop production, easy financing and growing use of tractors in non-agricultural sectors. The sector also benefits from low penetration of tractors. About 20% of tractors are used for non-agricultural use. The government’s thrust on roads and highways development as seen in Bharatmala project would also be positive for the higher tonnage tractor segment and the players therein.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 19 Apr 2018 19:03

Certain data points are an extremely strong leading indicator of rising economic confidence and activity:
- commercial vehicle sales growth : indicates companies are committed to the belief of rising commercial activity, requiring them to expand their fleets. A leading indicator of upswing in the industrial cycle
- rail freight volume growth : again a sign of commercial activity , but with the caveat that a dominant item transported is coal , and a focus on non-thermal power sources can commerce growth is weak when in reality it’s just coal transport that’s not growing much .
- construction equipment production and sales : again a leading indicator of activity but in construction .
- power equipment orders and backlog : this is a core sector fundamental . These days this should include solar panel and wind turbine orders.
- tractor and farm equipment sales : points strongly to robust farm situation . Since farmers generally work on small margins, the ability to afford capital spending suggests a good cash position, or comfort with taking on debt .
- air passenger traffic : points to disposable income growth . Arguably a better picture of broad disposable income levels than things like TV sales, because it shows willingness to spend on a one time expenditure given cheaper slower alternatives .

As of the present, here’s where we are:
Rail freight growth : strong
Air traffic growth : very strong
Farm equipment growth : very strong
Remaining : needs reference data. Please feel free to search and post.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Karthik S » 19 Apr 2018 20:20

Auto Components Manufacturing in India: Robust Investment Outlook, Growth Potential

India’s rapidly increasing domestic demand and proximity to key Asian markets has made it a strong auto components sourcing hub.

In 2016-17, the annual turnover of the auto component industry in India crossed US$43 billion; it is expected to reach US$115 billion in 2020-21.


India’s auto components industry
Large original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in this sector first began operations in India in 1993 when the automotive market was liberalized.

The organized sector accommodates the needs of OEMs through the production of high precision equipment like steering components, while the unorganized sector caters to the after-sales market segment with low valued products for automobile repair and maintenance. The unorganized sector includes second-hand dealerships and garages.

Although the latter far outnumbers the former, the organized sector accounts for a much larger share of the sector.

The auto components industry in India is divided into the following categories:

Engine and engine parts;
Powertrain parts;
Suspension and braking parts;
Lighting and other equipment;
Body and chassis; and,
Others.
Why invest in India?
Companies operating in India save up to 10-25 percent on operational costs, compared to operations in Latin America or Europe.

Multiple factors play into this.

India is the world’s third largest steel producer – a key raw material in the production of auto components, which keeps costs down.**

Meanwhile, global OEM sourcing from India is rapidly growing alongside increased indigenization of global OEMs through mergers and acquisitions. The parallel developments make India a preferred designing and manufacturing base.

It also explains the growth in export revenues of Indian auto component makers, which have further been augmented by strong internal demand from automobile manufacturers. India’s automobile sector comprises 45 percent of the total manufacturing GDP, and in February, India became the world’s fourth largest automobile market.

Exports from the auto components industry are therefore robust, and comprise four percent of total Indian exports: the US accounts for the largest share of India’s auto component exports, followed by European markets.

Sunjay Kapur, CEO of the Sona Group, a US$800 million multinational firm and leading Indian auto component manufacturer says, “The auto components sector in India has reached a mature stage, and is well poised for growth. The next few years will see growth in all segments in the domestic industry making India a strong base for the global export market. What is needed now is investments in technology and people in the tier II and tier III space in India. This will be a challenge as we see OEMs grow in India.”

Federal incentives to boost auto components industry
India’s Auto Policy of 2002 allows automatic approval of 100 percent foreign equity investment in facilities that manufacture auto components.

Bolstering the manufacturing prowess of India’s automotive sector – a key beneficiary of which is the domestic auto component industry – is an important goal of the Make in India initiative.

The Automotive Mission Plan 2026 (AMP 2026) seeks to engage with the Make in India initiative to create a global hub for automobile manufacturing in the country.

The Plan aims to generate the capacity to produce an annual turnover of US$200 billion – with exports worth US$80 billion per year, domestic after-sales market worth US$32 billion, and the creation of 3.2 million jobs in the industry.

To this end, the federal government has invested in enabling infrastructure projects, such as the National Automotive Testing and R&D Infrastructure Project (NATRiP) centers.

In addition, the Department of Heavy Industries & Public Enterprises has created a US$200 million fund that provides manufacturers with low-interest loans and investments in new manufacturing capacity.

Mid-level auto component suppliers are granted export benefits on products against their Duty Free Replenishment Certificate (DFRC).

Investors can also receive incentives for exports through the following schemes:

Given the favorable investment environment, major global auto component manufacturers have set up shop in India.


https://www.india-briefing.com/news/aut ... 6654.html/

** We are 2nd largest steel maker, not 3rd.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JohnTitor » 19 Apr 2018 21:23

vijayk wrote:Isn't GST one way to bring these businesses to pay tax?

It has reduced non-compliance but I can assure you that there are still ways to avoid paying GST. I know this from anecdotal evidence. So it's harder but not impossible. For instance you can still buy 100 kg of ingredients but only bill 70 kg.. perhaps e way bill will solve this.

Then there's the income tax portion for businessmen that can be avoided through various legal and gray area loopholes

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby pankajs » 19 Apr 2018 22:42

https://twitter.com/anandmahindra/statu ... 4739099648
anand mahindra Verified account @anandmahindra

The Takeaways:1)Across the board,strong demand recovery except in urban,premium real estate 2)Strong liquidity amongst consumers esp. in rural areas.3)Production capacities stretched 3)Domestic Tourism growing strongly 4)IT companies have made a robust transition to digital (2/2)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 20 Apr 2018 05:02

Data for the earlier post:
Commercial vehicle sales hit new record in 2017-18
Domestic sales of commercial vehicles created a new record by selling 856,453 units in FY2017-18. The segment surpassed its earlier sales record of 809,499 units in FY 2011-12. ETAuto earlier reported that commercial vehicle will make a mark in FY18 by touching a new peak.

Commercial vehicles to record highest-ever sales in FY18
Domestic sales of commercial vehicles (CVs) are set to touch a new milestone during FY 2017-18. They will cross their earlier peak of 809,499 units sold in FY 2011-12.

The FY18 is slated to better this record by over 20,000-30,000 units, as the 11-month (April-February 2017-18) period has already experienced sales of 747,774 units, according to SIAM data.

Recovery in the economy and pick up in infrastructure projects have boosted sales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV). Two consecutive years of monsoons and a stable interest regime have led to larger loans being taken for buying light commercial vehicles (LCV) in semi-urban and rural markets as well.

But since the MHCV sector has been on the upswing for the last few months, discounts are expected to be lower this year.

The above article is not a typo. Commercial vehicle sales peaked in 2011-12. It has dropped like a stone since then, from 809000 to a trough of 614000 in 2014-15, and now back again to a monster high of 856K. Last year's total CV sales were just 714,000, so YoY gain was a huge 19.88% . It still took 6 years to finally overtake the peak of the last economic cycle that petered out during UPA2.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 20 Apr 2018 08:26

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 20 Apr 2018 10:20

I used to say it as "zoom, zoom, zoom". I was wrong.

I am going to say

zoom ZOOM ZOOM

Here is the deal, the Elephant of Indian economy has started running and it is running on a firm footing. And it is as ferocious as a Lion. In the next decade & half, India is going to be the global growth engine in its relentless march to a USD 10 Trillion economy.

The challenge will be post 2030. Will India be in a "middle income trap" or "cut over into high income trap"? My bet is that it will be later and not former. That of course remains to be seen.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 20 Apr 2018 11:38

vijayk wrote:Hope Govt. takes quick action. When people get inconvenienced, people lash out at Govt. because we are such a babu controlled society. They see only they are being in discomfort and rich people living fine.

FYI

Tanvi Shukla
‏ @tanvishukla

@sanjeevsanyal tells @MirrorNow the cause of the sudden spurt is unknown but roughly 45k crore was withdrawn in last 3weeks. Unusual demand in #Karnataka and telangana. #CashCrunch



Now we know where the ATM money is going and why there is a shortage


NDTV Verified account @ndtv

Rs. 31 crore cash seized in Karnataka; included Congress, JD(S) handbills https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rs-31-c ... ls-1839509


Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 20 Apr 2018 11:44

Listen if you have the time. Hits at the root of the Indian deep state.



https://youtu.be/ywumn8vLyMs

Chat with M R Venkatesh on the health of the Private Banks of India

Last edited by chetak on 20 Apr 2018 11:57, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vasu » 20 Apr 2018 11:52

Indian IT sector has been very quick and meticulous in transitioning to the digital economy. A friend in one of the IT biggies was telling me the other day they set up dedicated business units exclusively for things like blockchain, fintech, etc, a while ago. Their R&D has also gone up manifold.

The other big transition that is happening is that their client base is becoming more domestic, as India's latent demand for technology services is picking up. Government sector has shown a huge appetite for tech adoption.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 20 Apr 2018 15:58

Unravelling PNB rot: Hong Kong module in over Rs 13,000 cr scam comes under India scanner

Unravelling PNB rot: Hong Kong module in over Rs 13,000 cr scam comes under India scanner

Yatish Yadav Apr 13, 2018

New Delhi: Investigators in the Punjab National Bank (PNB) scam have questioned many auditors in the country and have now zeroed-in on a cobweb of Hong Kong-based book-keepers who audit all Indian banks in the special administrative region of China.

Sleuths from various investigative agencies said they would soon be questioning Indian bank officials and auditors in Hong Kong. Sources revealed they are trying to verify antecedents of G Natarajan, the founder of Singapore-based certified public accountancy firm -- MGI N Rajan Associates.

They also seek to probe rotation norms of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which mandates change of auditors at regular interval, to find out if it was violated in the Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi episode -- a colossal loot of public money primarily through Punjab National Bank (PNB).

Little-known Chinese firms such as Charles H C Cheung & CPA Limited and W Y Lam & Co have been auditing PNB, State Bank of India (SBI), Allahabad Bank, Union Bank of India, Axis Bank, UCO Bank and Bank of India for the past few years.

The Firstpost investigation revealed that the bank’s board, audit committee and banking regulator Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had approved these firms. Sources also confirmed that despite the massive scandal, they continue to audit around 10 banks in Hong Kong.

Charles H. C. Cheung & CPA Limited is a local accounting firm based in Sheung Wan and claims to have been established some 30 years ago. The company says it provides audit, accounting, taxation and company secretarial services to clients, both local and overseas from a variety of business sectors.

Charles Cheung of Charles H C Cheung & CPA Limited told the Firstpost that G Natarajan is principal auditor of almost all the public sector banks in Hong Kong on behalf of his firm. Charles further said they have been auditing the books of about 10 banks at Hong Kong including SBI, PNB, Allahabad Bank, Union Bank of India, Axis Bank, UCO Bank among others.

“We have been auditing the books for a very long time. Mr. Natarajan has vast experience as an auditor and I believe he is doing the bank audit works for the last 20-30 years. I do not exactly remember since when we have been auditing books of Indian banks but I can tell you that we are doing the audit as per the guidelines issued by Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA),” Charles said.

When contacted by Firstpost, W Y Lam & Co CPA located at Wan Chai, Hong Kong, confirmed about working with Indian banks but refused to divulge details of auditors and clients.

P S Somasekharan, a partner in MGI N Rajan Associates Singapore told Firstpost: “You may wish to kindly be in touch with Mr. G. Natarajan with regard to the information sought (auditing of Hong Kong based Indian banks). Our firm (Singapore based) has nothing to do with Charles Cheung & Co.”

A detailed questionnaire was sent to Shanthini, who looks after secretarial matters at MGI N Rajan Associates, seeking response from Natarajan. But no reply was received till the time of publishing this story.

Central investigative agencies – the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), Income Tax Department, and the Enforcement Directorate (ED) -- intend to examine how banks could keep under the wraps huge fraud despite regular audits, said government sources. This raises serious questions: Why the serial attempts were not flagged even once in Hong Kong, despite balancing the books of Indian banks now linked to the Modi-Choksi scandal, for the whole period from 2010 to 2018? Did banks engage auditors who were also keeping the books of loan seekers?

A senior PNB officer in Hong Kong, requesting anonymity, told Firstpost that Natarajan and the Chinese audit firms were involved in auditing the books of his bank, but that no LoU and LC were raised on the bank. “Our bank branch at Hong Kong had no exposure to fraudulent LOUs and LCs. Even the Nostro account of our branch in Hong Kong is different from the PNB Nostro account that cleared credit, for Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi's firms, for other Indian government owned banks in Hong Kong,” he said.

To a question whether audit documents have been shared with the investigative agencies including the CBI and the ED, he confirmed that some papers were recently sent from Hong Kong to the Punjab National Bank (PNB) head office, but clarified that he was not aware about subsequent developments.

“Our Head Office has asked for certain documents, which we have forwarded. As per our internal procedure, we do not directly deal with central investigative agencies,” he further added.

Banks, RBI keep mum

Top sources in the investigative agencies said that during the questioning of bank officials, they asked for documents including audit reports lying with overseas branches of Indian banks, which have exposure to the massive banking fraud, to ascertain why the auditor failed to identify the scam and did not raise an alarm. Another aspect that investigators are going to explore is why the eligibility norms of the RBI were flouted in the auditor’s appointment in Hong Kong, ignoring the audit rotation requirement of the Indian banking regulator.

“It is possible that some banks may have developed comfortable working relationship with the Chinese audit firms. But, the bank officials’ connivance in putting things under the carpet also cannot be ignored. We are probing whether these Chinese firms are directly or indirectly linked. If they are auditing the defaulters, then there is a clear case of a deep entrenched network with bank officials. We will request our counterpart in Hong Kong for assistance to probe into the conduct of bank official’s," said sources in investigative agencies.

As far action against Chinese firms are concerned, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority needs to act, explained sources.

The PNB officer quoted above further revealed his bank is rotating auditing firms, though he admitted that audit process was not satisfactory.

When contacted by the Firstpost, the Chief Executive of the Union Bank of India in Hong Kong, Ashutosh Kumar, refused to confirm or deny the names of their auditors, and said that only the bank's headquarters in India is authorised to reveal such information.

An email sent to the Union Bank of India remained unanswered. A total of 77 LCs were raised to the Union Bank of India, Hong Kong, for Choksi owned Nakshtra, Gili India and Gitanjali Gems. Similarly other banks with exposure in the Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi scandal, namely UCO Bank, Allahabad Bank and SBI kept mum on Firstpost's queries on audit firms and why these banks failed to comply with RBI norms for audit rotation requirement. No response was received from these banks till the time of publishing the story.

Only Axis Bank responded to posers and confirmed that its Hong Kong Branch has availed the services of Charles H C Cheung and CPA Limited as External Auditors, whose appointment has been made after all necessary approvals. However the auditor made no adverse observation on buyers credit transactions out on the back of the PNB LoUs. Axis Bank’s official spokesperson said Axis Bank, Hong Kong (HK) Branch is recognised as a foreign branch of Axis Bank by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). M/s S. R. Batliboi & Co. LLP, an affiliate of the global audit firm, E&Y, is the bank’s statutory auditor, who also conducts the audit of Axis Bank's Hong Kong branch.

“In compliance with the HKMA regulations in Hong Kong, our HK Branch has availed of the services of Charles H C Cheung and CPA Limited as External Auditors, whose appointment has been made after all necessary approvals. No adverse observations were made by the said External Auditors on the buyers credit transactions carried out on the back of the Punjab National Bank(PNB) Letters of Undertaking (LOUs). It may be mentioned that none of the importer firms nor the exporter beneficiaries under the LoUs hold their banking accounts with Axis Bank, HK Branch. The Branch has provided buyers credit loan into the nostro account of PNB against their LoUs duly authenticated through the swift network,” Axis Bank official spokesperson said.

The CBI, which has arrested and interrogated two internal auditors of PNB - MK Sharma and Bishnubrata Mishra, suspects that external auditors in overseas Indian bank’s branches may have helped the bankers keep the skeletons in the closet.

“We are calling bank officials in overseas branches for questioning to probe into buyers credit extended to Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi. So far many bank officials from Canara Bank, Bahrain, Bank of India Antwerp, SBI Frankfurt and Mauritius branch is being examined in the scam, which has now touched Rs.13,578 Crore but could go up in the coming days,” the investigators argued.

The RBI did not respond to queries on the issue of appointment of auditors in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority responded, stating that it would not comment on the affairs of individual institutions.

On the issue of appointment, review and rotation of an auditor, the HKMA's official spokesperson said these issues have been left to the banks to take decision as per their satisfaction. “In case where a bank is required to procure the service of an audit firm, the management of the bank have to satisfy themselves that the service will be performed by qualified and competent professionals,” the HKMA official said.

Future course of action

According to top sources, the senior management of Indian banks exposed to the Modi-Choksi scandal are worried that re-auditing of books could reveal a lot of mess that may expose other defaulters and banking irregularities. They said there are three action points, which need to be taken by the RBI and Indian banks -

Firstly, Indian banks in Hong Kong should be asked to get the last seven-years' accounts re-audited by top accountancy firms.

Secondly, the RBI should send its own team to audit the books.

Thirdly, Indian Banks should file a complaint to the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants (HKICPA) and the Financial Reporting Council Hong Kong about the shoddy job done by Indian bankers.

“The banks should be subjected to a review of their audit reports to identify if these transactions in the PNB scam were identified but not reported or if these were not even identified, which would suggest that they did not employ very basic internal banking process. It seems not only their systems were failing but the bank officials were also deliberately failing the system. If the checks and balances at PNB were missing, what about the other banks?” sources asked, indicating agencies' future course of action.




Unravelling PNB Rot Part 2: Secret trip by Indian bankers to Hong Kong to cover up scam under scanner

Unravelling PNB Rot Part 2: Secret trip by Indian bankers to Hong Kong to cover up scam under scanner

Yatish Yadav Apr 16, 2018

New Delhi: Days after the mammoth Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud involving diamond merchants Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi surfaced, two officials of an Indian public sector bank (PSB) made a secret trip to Hong Kong. Their travel was planned during the Chinese New Year (16-19 February) and the primary objective was to utilise the auspicious time to cover-up and prepare documentation with backdates. The surreptitious rendezvous has come under the scanner of Indian investigative agencies because a large chunk of buyer’s credit was raised by PNB's Mumbai branch to various government-owned banks in Hong Kong to facilitate companies owned by the diamantaires.

“The bank officials are suspected to have been amending documents to justify decisions and allegedly erased paper-trails that may cause trouble in future. It has come to our notice that some overseas branches of the Indian banks are not providing information on transactions liked to Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi citing Hong Kong law, which prohibits them from sharing information under the Hong Kong Personal Data Privacy Ordinance (PDPO). However, the argument is contradictory as they can share details by categorising the case as fraudulent,” sources in the investigative agencies told Firstpost.

They also pointed out that a huge cover-up is taking place and that the senior management of banks, including PNB, are trying to push things under the carpet. There is a huge failure on part of the internal and external auditors and bank officials in Hong Kong, who should have been able to spot a problem in at least one transaction in one bank, they said.

“Most LoUs were discounted without any counter verification by the issuing branch and with disregard to other Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policies and normal banking guidelines and procedures. So it is suspected that they had to fix those decisions. The bank officials will soon be called for questioning,” investigators claimed.

Indian banks at Hong Kong having an exposure in the Nirav Modi-Mehul Choksi fraud are not financially affected because PNB had no other option but to honour all the credits. But the incident has brought Indian banks operating in the Chinese administrative region under the scanner because not a single query was put forth to the issuing bank over fraudulent letters of undertaking (LoUs) and letters of credit (LCs) carrying huge sums.

A senior officer of the PNB at Hong Kong, requesting anonymity, said he was surprised after the scam broke out because his bank has its branch in Hong Kong but not a single LoU or LC was raised to the branch. Generally, a bank passes the buyer's credit or LoUs business to its own branch. So, why did the PNB bank branch in Hong Kong not question why other banks were getting this business and why it wasn't.

He told the Firstpost over the phone from Hong Kong that his staff was not aware about LoUs and LCs going to other Indian PSBs. “Otherwise, we would have asked the Head Office to pass on this business to us,” he revealed.

To a question whether PNB Hong Kong has suffered any exposure in the Nirav Modi-Choksi scam, the officer confirmed that only one account was impaired, causing a roughly $5 million loss to the bank. “It was a loan issued to Firestar Diamond owned by Nirav Modi. Since it was just one bad account in our books, the team did not raise any alarm,” he further added.

The burning question

While investigative agencies -- the Enforcement Directorate (ED), the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and the Income Tax Department (IT-D) -- are gearing up to grill Hong Kong-based current and former executives of Union Bank of India, PNB, Allahabad Bank and UCO Bank in Nirav Modi-Choksi case, they are perplexed by the fact that buyers' credit was discounted by bankers without any counter verification by the issuing branch.

It is learnt that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) had subjected PNB at Hong Kong to a review in 2017 since it was allegedly found to be tampering with NPAs and write-offs in 2016. But as far as a review of other banks were concerned, the HKMA played a passive role.

Questions sent to the Union Bank of India, UCO bank, Allahabad Bank, PNB and the State Bank of India (SB), remained unanswered till the time of publishing this story.

A source said the HKMA cares least as Indian Banks' failures are guaranteed by the Government of India. This is precisely the reason, he claimed, that the Punjab National Bank has been asked by the government to honour all fraudulent LoUs to ensure there is no impact on overseas centers of Indian Banks.

A total 146 LCs were raised to UCO Bank, Hong Kong for Mehul Choksi-owned Nakshatra, Gili India and Gitanjali Gems to the tune of $247 million which PNB needs to pay to UCO Bank. A mail was sent to UCO Bank’s Managing Director R K Takkar and PNB seeking their official comment, but no reply was received.

On a question of supervision and action on default and irregularities, an official spokesperson of the HKMA told Firstpost that they expect banks in Hong Kong to carry out their business in a prudent and professional manner. Banks should also put in place proper systems of control to ensure that their risk exposure is effectively managed, the spokesperson said.

“In respect of management of non-performing loans, our supervisory guidelines require banks to have effective systems to identify such loans, set aside sufficient provisions and write-off such loans when it becomes clear that the loans are not recoverable. Where we are of the view that a bank does not have effective systems for its lending business, we will follow up with the bank management and where appropriate the head office and home supervisor of the bank. We will also consider taking suitable supervisory actions,” the HKMA official said.

To a question whether Indian banks operating in Hong Kong are running in losses and accumulating bad debts and whether HKMA had ordered a review of those accounts, the HKMA official refused to divulge any details. According to sources, most banks have suffered losses in Hong Kong and there are as many as four big defaulters, besides Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi, but no action has been initiated by the HKMA.

Investigators said they have received complaints that an Indian PSB had also cleared huge sums to two large firms in Hong Kong that turned NPAs. The officer in charge of the bank is now back in India and is likely to be questioned soon.

A source closely monitoring Indian PSBs operations in Hong Kong said the NPAs of these groups together runs into thousands of crores. “The accounts of some banks submitted to the HKMA in September are cleverly camouflaged, but a closer look indicates that half of all trade finance loans in Hong Kong are impaired. A majority of loans are LoUs and LC-related that banks don’t categorise as NPAs. Actually, the reporting is done in a manner that doesn’t look alarming in the documents. Their total losses (all banks combined) in Hong Kong in bad loans could easily exceed $1 billion,” he said.

Bankers slept over manipulation

Investigators are surprised that while the Indian government is trying to nab Nirav Modi in Hong Kong, lenders are not acting against him -- if they file a complaint to the Hong Kong's Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC), it would be easy to get him behind bars. Some of the Indian banks in Hong Kong, which have financed Nirav Modi, are qualified to use the provisions but have not done so yet.

It appears, investigators claimed, LC frauds started after a successful run of LoUs for a number of years. As per the law, if there is a defaulter in Hong Kong, he or she can be put under prohibition orders. Most fraudulent LCs were small amounts ($5,00,000 to $20,00,000) but were inflated to around $1,00,00,000 by amendments. These amendments were done by SWIFT messages and were not updated in the CBS. These LCs were issued for different suppliers, all of which were Nirav Modi's firms in Hong Kong, Antwerp, New York, Mauritius and eslewhere. So, the money was not only siphoned off, but also inflated.

How it all began

The bank was issuing LCs to Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi's firms. There were genuine LCs issued at first, for example $500,0000. Subsequently, each LCs were amended on SWIFT and inflated by almost 20 times.

Investigators grilling some bank officials posted in Antwerp, Bahrain and Mauritius are posing two basic questions: Why did the Indian banks discount those LCs and not see anything wrong in so many amendments to each of these LCs for almost eight years? And why did the bank never raise a question as to why all amendments were communicated only by SWIFT and there were no other communication between the banks?

Investigative agencies are yet to accept the theory floated by the top management of PNB that the fraud happened in just one branch and others including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) were not aware about it. Sources said that LoUs and LCs are 95 percent of Indian banks' trade finance business and it is impossible to buy the argument that both LoUs and LCs were missed out by the PNB treasury department's daily reconciliation process of their Nostro accounts, daily monitoring process, management monitoring, credit monitoring, internal audit, special audits, statutory audits and by RBI audits.

“There are so many layers of inspection but Punjab National Bank, and discounting public sector banks abroad quietly accepted the irregularities including fake amendments. This fraud is not only large in size but also large in terms of number of banks and people involved and is suspected to be getting large in the cover-up exercise,” sources added

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 20 Apr 2018 17:20

India Set To Get Its First 100 Billion Dollar Company In TCS

Shares of TCS today surged by nearly 7 per cent
Its market value rose by over Rs. 40,000 crore
TCS had a market cap of Rs. 6.52 lakh crore

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 20 Apr 2018 17:35

disha wrote:
Here is the deal, the Elephant of Indian economy has started running and it is running on a firm footing. And it is as ferocious as a Lion. In the next decade & half, India is going to be the global growth engine in its relentless march to a USD 10 Trillion economy.

The challenge will be post 2030. Will India be in a "middle income trap" or "cut over into high income trap"? My bet is that it will be later and not former. That of course remains to be seen.


If we do reach 10 trillion, then it will have it's momentum of it's own. Good example is US.

A 10 trillion dollar economy will try to keep up it "lifestyle" and will have enough money to find ways to maintain that "lifestyle".

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 20 Apr 2018 18:13

Thanks to Jan Dhan 80% of Indians now have bank accounts. Similar to China.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... s?from=mdr

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 20 Apr 2018 18:14

Govt deliberating on one nation-one road tax-one permit system.

http://www.pib.nic.in/PressReleseDetail ... ID=1529686

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Karthik S » 20 Apr 2018 19:00

Should have done already! Big harassment for people who move from one state to another especially in IT. Also big headache to get NOC, payment of other states' taxes etc.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Philip » 20 Apr 2018 19:50

{Deleted}
Last edited by Suraj on 20 Apr 2018 20:00, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Politics

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 20 Apr 2018 20:15

Karthik S wrote:Should have done already! Big harassment for people who move from one state to another especially in IT. Also big headache to get NOC, payment of other states' taxes etc.


Its been pending for many years. Transport unions also oppose this as it would reduce their freedom to do whatever they want to do.


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