Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21910
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 12 Jun 2018 22:02

Deleted. Please keep these to India-US thread. This isn't the place to dump it, pun intended.
Last edited by Suraj on 12 Jun 2018 22:33, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Overzealous xposting.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3241
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 13 Jun 2018 01:07

Supratik wrote:Why India Inc may be unhappy.

https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/99yC5V ... -Modi.html

Second, flowing from the above, India Inc.’s sense of disconcert has only worsened due to the ideological focus (read pro-poor) policies pursued in the last four years. Barring its failed attempt, in its first year in office, to rejig the land acquisition law in the country, the NDA under Modi has made social welfare and poverty alleviation the overarching focus of its policies. To be fair to them, it is not just good politics, but also something that should have been undertaken decades ago.

Given that this regime is the most right-of-centre government—in terms of their economic ideology too—this focus has disappointed India Inc.

They confide in private that they are being made to feel like second grade citizens; the disappointment is more pronounced because in 2014, a victorious Modi (inspired by his record in Gujarat) was perceived to be pro-business.

Third, linked to the above, India Inc. is particularly upset at the free rein given to investigative agencies targeting big-ticket corruption. Some high-profile cases, they believe, have been used to vilify the entire business community.

Further, the NDA’s anti-black money crusade topped by the demonetisation of high-value currencies has forced an unwelcome reset in their business model.

Fourth, promoters are, for the first time, insecure about their future. The successful launch of the debt tribunal is seeking an institutional solution to the vexing problem of bank loans that have turned toxic.

Yes, while banks are finding a way out of their bad debt crisis, existing promoters are being shown the door—something that is once again a bone of contention as far as promoters go.

Fifthly and finally, the decision to transition India to a rules-based regime (by implementing policies like goods and services tax (GST), debt tribunals, auction of natural resources, installing a regulator for the real estate and so on) has not gone down well with India Inc. most of whom have cut their teeth in an exception-based regime (honed by leveraging outdated concepts like the licensing regime pursued till 1991).

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2962
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kashi » 13 Jun 2018 05:35

^^ So India Inc is unhappy because they have to follow proper rules?

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2264
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Katare » 13 Jun 2018 05:44

The billionaire crooks are unhappy, India inc is fine

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11843
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 13 Jun 2018 06:51

The livemint article is excellent news indeed .

Kashi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2962
Joined: 06 May 2011 13:53

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kashi » 13 Jun 2018 09:55

Jaggi's article in Swarajya today essentially echoes the above views. He is of the view that a stricter tax regime, IBC and NPA cleanup are squeezing the promoters out of their businesses, attempts at formalising the economy and transactions are stifling new investments. And that because black money is becoming difficult to be laundered back into the economy, sick businesses are becoming difficult to revive!

So doing the right things is now bad for the economy?

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/why-in ... sahi-vikas

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11843
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 13 Jun 2018 11:11

I believe Jaggi is being shortsighted. In the past, businesses ostentatiously demanded a rules based system instead of 'corruption'. Now that they have it, they're supposedly demanding the opposite eh ?

The reality is that application of rules will burn a lot of those who were dependent on the lack of rule of law to keep going. Tough luck. There are also plenty of people more than happy to snap up assets at a discount through rule of law. When IBC came into force, RBI recommended the 'dirty dozen' biggest and most heavily stressed cases for resolution. As of April 2018: Five Of The Dirty Dozen Of Stressed Assets In Final Stage Of Resolution.

There's no shortage of prospective buyers for good assets that are stressed. Foreign debt and LBO firms are desperate to get a piece of this massive pie:
India’s $210 billion bank bad loans lures funds hunting for returns
India's ‘Dirty Dozen’ Debtors Lure Big Funds to Their Bad Loans

JayS
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3494
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 13 Jun 2018 11:18

Suraj wrote:The livemint article is excellent news indeed .


Indeed. The squeaking and squealing of this kind feels like Music to my ear. Mera Bharat Badal Raha hai. :mrgreen:

Trikaal
BRFite
Posts: 472
Joined: 19 Jul 2017 08:01

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Trikaal » 13 Jun 2018 18:56

I would much rather lesser, more honest amd law abiding investors than support crony capitalism just to paint a rosy picture in statistics. This article is nothing but a subtle way of threatening the government.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5518
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 13 Jun 2018 19:17

Five changes taking place that may revive UP economy.

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/the-roa ... bimaru-tag

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10593
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 13 Jun 2018 21:02

India's current account deficit widened sharply to USD 13.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2017-18, or 1.9 percent of GDP, from USD 2.6 billion, or 0.4 percent of GDP, in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

from tradingeconomics.com

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2264
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Katare » 13 Jun 2018 21:50

If GDP grows fast current account deficit would shoot up too in initial investment phase later exports would catch up to bring it down.

This rule of law for billionaire promoters who are loosing their family jwels would put fear of god on rest of them. This would improve discipline instead of reckless investment in upswing and public pays for NPAs in downswing routine that we have for last 70 years.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3995
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 13 Jun 2018 22:06

Kashi wrote: And that because black money is becoming difficult to be laundered back into the economy, sick businesses are becoming difficult to revive!


They had their chance to come clean and they ignored it. I hope all efforts to unearth black money stashes, benami properties in India and abroad will continue to be made even after 2019 by the new govt.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11843
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 13 Jun 2018 22:46

In my opinion, what Jaggi's trying to say is not that a system of rules is hampering investment. Rather, that there are still many holding out hope that the administration will change after the next GE, or that the laws affecting them will be watered down. Time bound procedures hamper this, since they can't kick the can further down the road trying to wait it out. On the other hand, this administration coming back in 2019 (especially if it happens with a strong mandate) would probably see a massive bounce in investment as these crooks decide that the change to rules based regime is permanent. It can also happen sooner, if sentiment in the 5th year strongly suggests that there's no way out, and it's best to be an early mover under the new system, than be run over by agile competitors working within the rules.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3995
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 14 Jun 2018 04:55

Offtopic: There seems to be a consensus among some people cutting across party lines against Namo's war on black money. Arun Shourie's main grouse with Namo seems to be not bailing out crony capitalists. Tavleen Singh wrote articles on tax terrorism and how the new laws on black money will be used by Income Tax to extort more money.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11843
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 14 Jun 2018 05:19

If you want to go off topic like that, at least post the references to the articles in question.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10593
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jun 2018 22:15

Latest macroeconomic indicators from tradingeconomics.com

Wholesale prices in India rose by 4.43 percent year-on-year in May of 2018, after a 3.18 percent gain in the prior month and above market estimates of 3.76 percent. It is the highest wholesale inflation since March 2017, driven by faster rises in cost of food, manufactured products, and fuel.

WPI Manufacturing YoY 3.73%
WPI Fuel YoY 11.22%
WPI Food YoY 1.6%
WPI overall YoY 4.43%

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17486
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 15 Jun 2018 14:01

Katare wrote:If GDP grows fast current account deficit would shoot up too in initial investment phase later exports would catch up to bring it down.

This rule of law for billionaire promoters who are loosing their family jwels would put fear of god on rest of them. This would improve discipline instead of reckless investment in upswing and public pays for NPAs in downswing routine that we have for last 70 years.



Nothing is going to improve.

These guys will simply bide their time and try to undo the changes via the opportunity given them via the 2019 slugfest.

The opposition just cannot get their acts together without liberal doses of vitamin M so some funds will start to flow to them

Arima
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 22
Joined: 05 Apr 2018 14:45

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Arima » 15 Jun 2018 14:59

Kashi wrote:Jaggi's article in Swarajya today essentially echoes the above views. He is of the view that a stricter tax regime, IBC and NPA cleanup are squeezing the promoters out of their businesses, attempts at formalising the economy and transactions are stifling new investments. And that because black money is becoming difficult to be laundered back into the economy, sick businesses are becoming difficult to revive!

So doing the right things is now bad for the economy?

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/why-in ... sahi-vikas

inital couple of years new change will have impact. old guard who thrived on loop holes will be wiped out and new generation of business will take lead. in my view future is much brighter.

jaysimha
BRFite
Posts: 645
Joined: 20 Dec 2017 14:30

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby jaysimha » 15 Jun 2018 16:17

http://pib.nic.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1535377
Ministry of Finance
Proposed amendments to Income-tax Rules, 1962 - Inviting comments of stakeholders
Posted On: 13 JUN 2018 7:19PM by PIB Delhi

Income-tax Rules, 1962 (I.T.Rules) prescribe Form No.36 for filing an appeal to the Income Tax Appellate Tribunal (ITAT). Further, a memorandum of cross-objections to the ITAT can be filed in Form No.36A.

The existing Form No.36 and Form No 36A have not been revised since long. These Forms are required to be rationalised to make them more informative and also to capture information regarding amount disputed in pending appeals before ITAT, which is vital for formulating the policy of the department for litigation management.

In view of the above, a draft notification proposing amendments in Form No. 36, Form No.36A and Rule 47 of the IT Rules has been uploaded on the website of the Income Tax Department www.incometaxindia.gov.in for comments from stakeholders and general public.

The comments and suggestions on the draft notification may be sent by 2nd July, 2018 electronically at the email address ts.mapwal@nic.in
​ ***********
DSM/RM/KA​
(Release ID: 1535377)

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10593
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Jun 2018 17:24

Look at this:
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 216_1.html
The macroeconomic scene has deteriorated, says Naresh Takkar, MD ICRA

Shiver in your dhotis!

Then read the article, I'm excerpting phrases below:

Generally speaking, sentiment has improved and so has the performance outlook.
From the demand perspective, they have started seeing traction.

Here are the fears, but yet to be realized: "From the systemic point of view, there are concerns — crude oil prices, interest rate outlook, and elections cycle. So there are macro factors — inflation management and how the monsoon will be, and support prices for various farm products. In addition, there could be fiscal slippage during the election year."

{Nevertheless} overall generally companies are more confident than they were in the past.

Capacity utilisation has started picking up
{This time round there will be no} significant overleveraging in the system.
With Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code in place, things are not going to be easy.
{Projects will be} qualitatively much better both in terms of kind of sponsors and structuring (financing) of projects.
Private sector banks have the capital, but they are going to be extremely selective in funding capital expenditure and large projects.


---
This is the sum total of the "macroeconomic scene has deteriorated".

chola
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2686
Joined: 16 Dec 2002 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chola » 15 Jun 2018 19:00

Forget about unhappy billionaires and rules and taxes blah blah.

Trump has just punched the Lizard in nose with the first big opening shot of a massive trade war.

The US tariffs and the soon-to-come Chinese retaliation on the US companies operating in Cheen will send the multinationals scurrying from the PRC. The global supply chains will be facing their greatest change in the 30 odd years since the rise of Cheen.

India MUST position herself in the race for a place in the chains. If she doesn’t then we’ll get the next set of Tigers being created elsewhere — Vietnam, Thailand, etc. even Bangladesh.

This is critically important.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 63130
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 15 Jun 2018 22:44

wuff wuff

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2264
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Katare » 15 Jun 2018 22:57

Wuff wuff indeed!

Sicanta
BRFite
Posts: 1107
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 11:16

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Sicanta » 15 Jun 2018 23:43

ISRO offers lithium ion battery cell technology to Indian firms

https://m.timesofindia.com/india/isro-o ... 594540.cms

Auditors under close watch, Big 4 tells its partners to take it easy with targets

https://m.economictimes.com/industry/se ... 597730.cms

Industry trackers say that caution has set in after the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) came down heavily on auditors in cases of financial fraud. The auditor’s role was questioned in several cases and Sebi banned a network firm of PwC for two years from auditing listed firms.An audit partner recently discovered, in one of the assignments, that promoters were siphoning off money. “The promoters had exaggerated the cost of some of the investments done by them in the past few years. We resigned as the auditors as Rs 2 crore (charged as audit fees) is not worth the risk,” said the partner, who resigned from a BSE-listed company recently.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10593
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 16 Jun 2018 02:47

tradingeconomics.com reports:

India's trade deficit widened to USD 14.62 billion in May 2018 from USD 13.84 billion in the same period of the previous year, and above market consensus of a USD 14.23 billion gap. Imports rose 14.85 percent to USD 43.48 billion, mainly due to a 50 percent surge in oil imports despite higher global prices, and exports increased 20.2 percent to USD 28.86 billion.

Foreign Exchange Reserves in India increased to 413110 USD Million in June 9 from 412230 USD Million in the previous week.

Austin
BRF Oldie
Posts: 21910
Joined: 23 Jul 2000 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 16 Jun 2018 20:11

Tariff hike: India proposes to raise customs duty on 30 US products

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 612403.cms

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2264
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Katare » 16 Jun 2018 21:44

chetak wrote:
Katare wrote:If GDP grows fast current account deficit would shoot up too in initial investment phase later exports would catch up to bring it down.

This rule of law for billionaire promoters who are loosing their family jwels would put fear of god on rest of them. This would improve discipline instead of reckless investment in upswing and public pays for NPAs in downswing routine that we have for last 70 years.



Nothing is going to improve.

These guys will simply bide their time and try to undo the changes via the opportunity given them via the 2019 slugfest.

The opposition just cannot get their acts together without liberal doses of vitamin M so some funds will start to flow to them


Pretty pessimistic attitude For a Chetak, your namesake ran on three legs to successfully save his master against terrible odds. Have some faith man, India’s big and messy so it takes time but it is on right path.

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 6467
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 17 Jun 2018 14:03

^Cannot help it ...

Indian economy is running like a 3-legged Cheetah!

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11843
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 17 Jun 2018 21:07

Please stop turning this thread into nukkad by feeding trolls and side discussions.

Thirteen states report 25% decline in fiscal deficits in FY18: ICRA report
Thirteen states have reported an average 25 per cent decline in their fiscal deficit primarily due to a contraction in capital outlay, even though their revenue has gone up by 7.5 per cent in the fiscal year to March 2018, says a report.

However, in FY17, their revenue had gone up by 11.5 per cent, says a report by domestic credit rating agency Icra, based on the provisional fiscal data given by the CAG of 13 states.

Fiscal deficit of these 13 states sharply fell by 25.1 per cent to Rs 3.2 trillion in FY18 from Rs 4.3 trillion in FY17, partly on account of the contraction in capital spending.

"While the CAG data shows that these 13 states have seen a steep 25 per cent decline in their fiscal deficit in FY18, their aggregate revenue receipts rose 7.5 per cent, which is sharply lower from 11.5 per cent a year ago," Icra said in a weekend report.

According to the agency, this slowdown in revenue growth was led by a contraction in the non-tax revenue, comprising grants from the Centre and states' own non-tax revenues, and a mild slowdown in the pace of growth of tax revenue, comprising Central tax devolution and states' own-tax revenues.

But the agency estimates that the pace of growth of the aggregate tax revenue of 13 states improved to 10.1 per cent in FY18 from 7.7 per cent in FY17, as the CAG data is only provisional.

The pre-actuals for FY18 indicate that growth of aggregate revenue expenditure of these 13 states eased to 8.8 per cent from 13.1 per cent in FY2017, while the capital outlay contracted by 9.4 per cent in FY18 in contrast to the healthy growth of 17.1 per cent in FY17.

Steel secretary: National Steel Policy saved Rs 50 bn forex, spiked crude capacity by 24MT
The rollout of new steel policy saved forex of Rs 50 billion since last year while around 24 million tonnes of crude steel capacity was added during past four years, Steel Secretary Aruna Sharma said.

India also replaced Japan as the second largest steel producer this year, she said.

"We are not going to stop here. We all know about the ambitious National Steel Policy (NSP) announced last year under which we have set a target of raising the capacity to 300 MT by 2030 and produce 250 MT of crude steel.

Steel production capacity has increased from 110 MT in 2014-15 to 134 MT in 2017-18, while 7 MT was added in 2017 alone, she outlined.

Rahulsidhu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 33
Joined: 22 Mar 2017 06:19

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahulsidhu » 18 Jun 2018 13:10

Great stuff as always from Neelkanth Mishra of Credit Suisse:

https://indianexpress.com/article/opini ... y-5221699/

“Are foreign capital inflows India’s ‘Dutch disease’?” An astute observer of the Indian economy asked me this question a few months back. He used the phrase “Dutch disease” to refer to foreign currency inflows that keep the currency stronger than it should be, reducing the competitiveness of domestic enterprises, thereby boosting imports and hurting exports.


Much of the attention of the commentators, on this forum and outside, is focused on economic statistics like GDP, inflation and PMIs, but IMO what truly matters is whether industrial competitiveness is improving or degrading, across a range of industries. In this sense, the picture is mixed: some industries are getting more competitive (e.g. Autos, logistics), but some seem to be going downhill (textiles, software services).

No country has ever grown rich without growing a world-beating industrial sector. Is India on the way? Maybe it is, but the persistent high CAD is a worrying sign.

RKumar
BRFite
Posts: 984
Joined: 26 Jul 2009 12:29
Location: Evolution is invention, explosion is destruction.

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby RKumar » 18 Jun 2018 13:28

‘Dutch disease’ - so the whole of the Western world should be suffering from this disease. USA caused global slow down and its currency still holds its value. Now, they are pulling money back and $ will grow even stronger. Why it's only third world currencies which should be devalued.

It runs in cycles = > devalue a currency -> inflation increase -> interest increase

Rahulsidhu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 33
Joined: 22 Mar 2017 06:19

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahulsidhu » 18 Jun 2018 13:38

The western world (except Germany) *has* suffered from currency overvaluation -- they lost competitiveness in manufacturing and a lot of services, all of which moved to Asia, especially China. This has culminated in the election of Trump who promised to end this process and bring the jobs back.

The key difference between India and the US is that the latter can sustain high CAD for a lot longer, since the USD is the reserve currency of the world. In India's case, this periodically leads to currency crises such as 2013, with sudden devaluations.

nam
BRFite
Posts: 1345
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 18 Jun 2018 14:27

Rahulsidhu wrote:
Much of the attention of the commentators, on this forum and outside, is focused on economic statistics like GDP, inflation and PMIs, but IMO what truly matters is whether industrial competitiveness is improving or degrading, across a range of industries. In this sense, the picture is mixed: some industries are getting more competitive (e.g. Autos, logistics), but some seem to be going downhill (textiles, software services).

No country has ever grown rich without growing a world-beating industrial sector. Is India on the way? Maybe it is, but the persistent high CAD is a worrying sign.


This is true, however it is not just being competitive leveraging low currency. It is about being world class in product design and manufacturing.

US with the strong dollar does a export of 1 trillion dollars! The biggest exporter to India is.... Switerzland!

The core of the argument. Produce what the world wants. The world will buy irrespective of your currency. If the currency is at 60+ to a dollar, icing on the cake.

siva509
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 11
Joined: 04 Dec 2017 19:22

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby siva509 » 18 Jun 2018 20:19

nam wrote:
Rahulsidhu wrote:
Much of the attention of the commentators, on this forum and outside, is focused on economic statistics like GDP, inflation and PMIs, but IMO what truly matters is whether industrial competitiveness is improving or degrading, across a range of industries. In this sense, the picture is mixed: some industries are getting more competitive (e.g. Autos, logistics), but some seem to be going downhill (textiles, software services).

No country has ever grown rich without growing a world-beating industrial sector. Is India on the way? Maybe it is, but the persistent high CAD is a worrying sign.


This is true, however it is not just being competitive leveraging low currency. It is about being world class in product design and manufacturing.

US with the strong dollar does a export of 1 trillion dollars! The biggest exporter to India is.... Switerzland!

The core of the argument. Produce what the world wants. The world will buy irrespective of your currency. If the currency is at 60+ to a dollar, icing on the cake.


There is an interesting thing happened during early 2000's comes to mind. When SBI was looking for Core Banking Solution tranformation, it found the systems used by similar banks around the world (likes of Bank of America, JP Morgan) is not fit for purpose, because these were developed 30-40 years back and struggling with modern banking. Hence it went for RFP, to build a new system. TCS found a product 'BaNCS' from a small Australian company called FNS, whose product is fit for purpose and presented it as a solution. However, SBI was hesitant since it was a very small company and it cannot trust with liability for such a massive transformation. Hence TCS bought this company along with IP for a very small price. Later implemented the CBS with that product. With the proof of this massive implementation without hiccups, this was showcased to a UK insurance company and sold this product in 2005. Since then around 75% of the UK life and pensions is managed in this platform and in the near future it will reach 90+ with further consolidation in the market and this is a go to product for any one. Just this product alone is providing 4-5Bn$ of TCS revenue now with more than 50K employees are getting employed with this.
This is a classic example of using the opportunity, which private sector is grasping very quickly.
The current opportunity in my mind is the Aadhar Platform, this is a decent biometric based digital identity platform. Our government and private sector should harness it and can be sold worldwide in variety of ways.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5518
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 18 Jun 2018 21:28

Currency devaluation as a principle or tool of export gain is a never ending pit. As someone mentioned above innovate and produce stuff that the world needs.

PS: No matter how much Trump jumps up and down except hi-end manufacturing the rest is unviable to produce in advanced economies.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6210
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nachiket » 18 Jun 2018 22:37

Rahulsidhu wrote:Much of the attention of the commentators, on this forum and outside, is focused on economic statistics like GDP, inflation and PMIs, but IMO what truly matters is whether industrial competitiveness is improving or degrading, across a range of industries. In this sense, the picture is mixed: some industries are getting more competitive (e.g. Autos, logistics), but some seem to be going downhill (textiles, software services).

No country has ever grown rich without growing a world-beating industrial sector. Is India on the way? Maybe it is, but the persistent high CAD is a worrying sign.

The lack of competitiveness in most sectors is due to the usual supply side bottlenecks that have plagued us for decades with some exceptions. We simply don't have the infrastructural, policy and legal framework in place to enable industrial output to grow like it did in China. This has started getting addressed on a war footing (by Indian standards) only in the last 2-3 years.

We can worry about exchange rates after we have the basic stuff fixed. The INR fell drastically after the 2009 crisis and we did not see any commensurate improvement in the CAD. We cannot hope to become magically competitive just by devaluing the rupee. Especially considering we import >80% of our oil and gas and what impact the devaluation will have on that.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 11843
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 18 Jun 2018 22:52

If someone can find and post some historical data charting exports vs non-oil imports, that would be very useful. Yes there's an element of bias because some of the oil imports are crude imports that feed refined petroleum output. If you can separate domestic consumption oil imports from overall imports, even better.

Rahulsidhu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 33
Joined: 22 Mar 2017 06:19

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahulsidhu » 18 Jun 2018 23:01

siva509 wrote:
There is an interesting thing happened during early 2000's comes to mind.
...
The current opportunity in my mind is the Aadhar Platform, this is a decent biometric based digital identity platform. Our government and private sector should harness it and can be sold worldwide in variety of ways.


Great anecdote, and a very good point. Thanks

Rahulsidhu
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 33
Joined: 22 Mar 2017 06:19

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahulsidhu » 19 Jun 2018 00:38

Suraj wrote:If someone can find and post some historical data charting exports vs non-oil imports, that would be very useful. Yes there's an element of bias because some of the oil imports are crude imports that feed refined petroleum output. If you can separate domestic consumption oil imports from overall imports, even better.


Agreed, this would be interesting to see. Specially the data year 2000 onwards.
India's CAD had turned +ve in the late Vajpayee years, but the trend reversed later. In the UPA years, the small manufacturing base was destroyed, both due to local factors as well as the rise of Chinese manufacturing. Once a country loses an existing industrial base, it can be very hard to re-establish.


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: anupamd and 10 guests