Rahulsidhu wrote:2) The problem for India is that unlike most Asian countries that grew rich, ours is a demand-side/consumption driven growth, rather than supply-side/production driven growth. This shows up in various ways-- high trade deficits, low jobs growth (relative to the growth of GDP).
This is a sure-fire way to ruin particularly when it is coupled with a very inflexible labour and limited infrastructure policy.
Problem with export led growth is that it is a race to bottom and very limited generation of IP. And subject to vagaries in the destination export market. And it is not as simplistic as creating job, then income and then domestic consumption.
Case in point is iPhone and ZTE. And Huawei.
On ZTE -> https://www.lightreading.com/components/mobile-wireless-components/huawei-zte-charm-offensive-just-got-harder/a/d-id/746658
A ban on the sale of US components to ZTE nearly drove it out of business, and it has shouldered fines equal to about 8.6% of its revenues in the last fiscal year. (See ZTE Racks Up $790M Q1 Loss on US Ban.)
Even if they have not severed their ZTE ties, service providers that once dealt exclusively with the Chinese vendor, such as Italy's Wind Tre, have started relationships with other suppliers. How damaging this could ultimately be remains unclear, but the US penalties have taken a heavy toll. For the first six months, ZTE reported a 27% drop in revenues, to 39.4 billion Chinese yuan ($5.7 billion), compared with the year-earlier period, and swung to a net loss of RMB7.8 billion ($1.8 billion), from a profit of RMB2.3 billion ($330 million) for the first half of 2017.
Of course the losses will lead to job loss and without any other industry providing for those jobs.
And if it was as simple as creating job, then income and then domestic consumption, it is interesting that even though iPhones are manufactured in China they are unaffordable in China itself. Of course if ZTE had invested in IP rather than doing an assembly, it would have been able to cater to domestic demand.
I have cited network, telecom and computing products as an example. But one can find similar examples all over the place, one just has to look.
Problem with lack of domestic consumption, is that when global growth is hit the recession strikes hard. Very hard. Look at Japan.
India's problem is not about production or consumption., India's problem is about anti-business laws and practices, lack of infrastructure including financing and education infrastructure and too much government interference. For example, taking over Tata airlines to create a junk called Air India. It will take now ages to undo such stupidity.
Here is a case in point -> https://swarajyamag.com/insta/iit-madras-expresses-disappointment-over-denial-of-institute-of-eminence-tag-writes-to-hrd-ministry
Of course IITM honchos are sore, but have they thought through and created a world class nuclear research facility for 3rd generation or 4th generation nuclear research? Are they going to just mint out BEs and B-Techs for the US? Kalpakkam is very near, so I am sure they can provide some RAs and provide for some RAs in their masters and phd programs. And this is for one of India's premier engineering college. What about other not-so-premier colleges?
My point is orthogonal to above. Where is the long term thinking to do basic research and improve the life of the nation's citizens? Demand and supply and growth will automatically follow. To state that not having a supply side production hence leading to not a high growth economy is just lazy analysis.