Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Prasad
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prasad » 08 May 2019 09:21

https://www.news18.com/news/business/us ... 32219.html

US Comm secy with some strong words on Walmart & Mastercard whining.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 08 May 2019 09:38

Prasad wrote:https://www.news18.com/news/business/us-warns-india-over-walmart-and-mastercard-treatment-says-limit-to-discrimination-against-us-firms-2132219.html

US Comm secy with some strong words on Walmart & Mastercard whining.

I first thought ‘it can’t be - not that Wilbur Ross’ . Turns out it is the billionaire investor . Wonder why he’s doing some crap govt job for less money that some sillycon valley top engineers make.

As to the contents of his threats, they are not going to get anywhere . GoI and RBI can just squeeze his own funds from investing in India until he gets the message . Like any other super rich type in a govt job, when it comes to ones own money vs country they all think of the money .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby uskumar » 08 May 2019 17:10

Prasad wrote:https://www.news18.com/news/business/us-warns-india-over-walmart-and-mastercard-treatment-says-limit-to-discrimination-against-us-firms-2132219.html

US Comm secy with some strong words on Walmart & Mastercard whining.


Data Localization has really put fire under US. One can see so many articles in multiple newspapers from legal practitioner(Lawyer type) who are writing about how data localization is bad for Indian startups, as if they care about them. Next Few years we are going to see sharp downturn in US-India economic relationship. US is one of the few countries with which we have trade surplus. Now is the Time to Crack the whip on China and Korean non-essential Imports. Review all our FTAs, they all have resulted in more imports than exports. Enough of being Services only nation. We need Manufacturing. If anyone wants India's Market, they need to Manufacture here. BS about India profiting from being partof Global Supply chain hasn't been true in any industry.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Pratyush » 09 May 2019 07:48

Deleted. There’s a thread to talk TSP dekhonomoney and this isn’t it .
Last edited by Suraj on 09 May 2019 08:07, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Off topic

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahul M » 09 May 2019 10:05

NSSO bomb shatters the calm on GDP front, new series data now under darker cloud

https://m.economictimes.com/news/econom ... 231296.cms

========
Comments please econ gurus.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2019 11:09

I saw the news and dismissed it as just white noise. The information pertains to the 2016-17 period immediately following Demo and in the run up to GST, when there was quite a bit of corporate churn . Then there’s the insolvency and bankruptcy act. I’m not a huge fan of CSO and MCA either; I pointed out how the 1993-94 GDP series had absurd and anachronistic items in the representative goods basket (eg landline phones but no cellphones, in the late 2000s). Folks like Singha might remember my rants about that.

Regular ‘controversies’ about GDP are going to be par for the course. In the spirit of this thread, that news will be far more useful when there’s actual statistical resolution of what’s supposedly the problem. After all, it’s no ones claim that there are 36% fewer companies than actually exist, or that the GDP is 36% smaller . That sort of claim would just get someone laughed at .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahul M » 09 May 2019 11:34

eg landline phones but no cellphones, in the late 2000s)

I remember. Also that scooters were a part but not motorcycles. Given NSSO's absurd results regarding employment et al, as pointed out by surjit bhalla and co, I am expecting similar outcome here as well. Since I am not competent enough to do so, I was hoping someone on brf would educate us in their inimitable style.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 09 May 2019 12:03

I don't know what to say, really. I don't have a lot of confidence in the CSO itself. Constant news about some methodological change or other issue suggests they're not a well run ministry. Arguably, it doesn't get much priority with PMO primarily focused on outcome measures of targeted schemes under implementation, ranging from Swacch Bharat to roadbuilding. Short of a major dressing down from the PMO, I don't see much change happening.

It's been my long term view that our GDP isn't overstated, but the opposite. Unfortunately, our ministry of statistics isn't anywhere near obtaining a full picture of the economy, an exercise that's not cheap, and takes years to accomplish. The amount of budgeted funding they have to collect and manage all the information is far too meager .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prasad » 09 May 2019 12:55

Following on - https://www.livemint.com/news/india/us- ... 38758.html
Read it for more hilarity.
Bhy are you yindoos wanting to do everything yourself instead of letting american cos do it for you? why cant you roll over and die and be a good little turd world market for our uber cos onlee? hain?


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ranneel » 09 May 2019 18:20

Here is Pronab Sen's take on this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbUaPHP3aq8

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby rhytha » 09 May 2019 18:35

Good Speech, should get more than the 31 Views it has..


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 10 May 2019 00:29


This is as good an article on the topic as one can expect. It focuses on the immediate problem, i.e. politicization of the matter, while also acknowledging long time systemic problems in CSOs functioning impacting proper data collection. There's no immediate answer to the latter problem, other than to perhaps consider combining corporate census activity together with the upcoming decennial census.

The macroeconomic picture on corporate activity (formal and informal) , employment, hiring and other similar macro parameters is at best poor, which leads to regular whiny comments about high vs low job growth / high vs low GDP growth. It's not simply a statistical issue. In the 1920s/30s, the US had similarly poor macro data, and made repeated policy mistakes at tackling the Great Depression, because they did not have good enough data to work with. They learned that lesson and invested enormously in entities like BLS that report closely watched payroll and hiring data every month now.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 10 May 2019 00:37

^^^ Something to lobby the next government on, if whoever it turns out to be does not already realize this.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 10 May 2019 01:12

Some efforts have been made in the past year to have a better handle on at least employment, payroll and hiring data collection - beyond just the data derived from the EPFO database activity. Still a long way to go.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby VinodTK » 10 May 2019 03:36

The Rise of India's New Billionaires (And the Fall of the Old)
(Bloomberg) -- India is going through one of the greatest periods of wealth creation -- and destruction -- all at the same time.

A new breed of self-made entrepreneurs is vaulting into the ranks of the wealthy, offsetting billions lost by debt-burdened industrialists and members of the country’s old dynasties. The changes are set to help India’s ultra-rich population grow at the world’s fastest pace.

It’s a shift shaped partly by a debt-fueled expansion that left businesses from power generation to airlines with $190 billion in soured loans. Over the past few years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has cracked down on delinquent borrowers, and India’s banks moved to seize their assets, a dramatic change for a country where the wealthy once enjoyed almost complete protection.

While old business clans continue to dominate India’s rich lists, a tenfold expansion in its economy since its opening in the 1990s has spawned new tycoons in fields like technology. The number of billionaires in India more than doubled to 119 between 2013 and 2018, according to Knight Frank. And the country will lead the global growth in ultrahigh net worth individuals, with its numbers rising 39 percent to 2,697 by 2023, the researcher estimates.

"The business environment has improved over the years," said Charles Dhanaraj, a professor at the Fox School of Business at Temple University in Philadelphia. "The availability of venture capital and private equity has changed the opportunity space for promising businesses. So we should see more of these startups and scaleups in the coming years."

Here are some well-known names who have seen a shift in their fortunes:
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 10 May 2019 18:07

Initial March IIP
{Wiki} The level of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) is an abstract number, the magnitude of which represents the status of production in the industrial sector for a given period of time as compared to a reference period of time.

Data source: mospi.gov.in (Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation).
Index of Industrial Production - IIP - 2011-12 series, with 2011-12 normalized to 100 at the monthly level.
The data is in reverse chronological order.

Code: Select all

2019 Mar   140.2
2019 Feb   127.5 (unchanged)
2019 Jan   134.2
2018 Dec   133.9  (was 134.0)
2018 Nov   126.1
2018 Oct   132.8
2018 Sep   128.8
2018 Aug   128.0
2018 Jul   125.7
2018 Jun   127.7
2018 May   129.6
2018 Apr   122.6
2018 Mar   140.3
2018 Feb   127.4

Notes:
Feb 2019 index has undergone first revision.
Dec 2018 index has undergone final revision.
Quick estimate of Apr 2019 will be available Jun 12, 2019.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nithish » 10 May 2019 23:38

Economic census 2019 to include geotagged data of business enterprises
The upcoming Seventh Economic Census 2019 will include geotagged data of business enterprises to ensure that no bogus enterprises are included in the official statistics, a senior official said. The move comes even as the government is facing questions over its national income numbers and growth estimates.

Field officials conducting the survey will include live locations of the enterprises via their mobile phones, the official told ET. “Geotagging will help to organically clean the database".
---
This comes after a National Sample Survey (NSS) technical report on services sector enterprises in India released last week had shown that nearly a third of the companies included in the MCA-21 data were either missing or wrongly classified.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 11 May 2019 02:08

One should note that the National Sample Survey was done to try to improve the statistics; it should not be used to generate controversies. The bad data has been bad for decades.

From: Technical Report on Services Sector Enterprises in India. Available at mospi.gov.in

Though the services sector in India has the largest share in the Gross Domestic Product of the country, there is no comprehensive database to monitor the growth and other related aspects of this sector in India. Since there is a strong demand from different quarters to have a comprehensive source of data on a regular basis of the services sector, the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MOSPI) envisaged an Annual Survey of Services Sector (ASSSE) in similar lines as the Annual Survey of Industries (ASI) conducted every year by MOSPI. Before conducting an annual survey on such a large scale, a pilot survey was undertaken in selected States and metro cities during 2012-13 with financial year 2011-12 as the reference period using a ‘list frame’ of enterprises having 10 or more workers as available in Economic Census 2005 database. Major limitations of this pilot survey were high rate of substitution (33%) and casualty (16%) of the establishments due to improper frame. In this context, National Statistical Commission (NSC) decided to have a completely list frame based survey of services sector enterprises in the NSS 74th round (July 2016 – June 2017) as a prelude to proposed Annual Survey on Services Sector (ASSSE).


It is this 74th round that has quantified the (pre-existing) problems.

NSS 74th round was a fully enterprise-based survey. Selection of enterprises was made for NSS 74th round from three frames, viz., EC frame, BR frame and MCA frame of list of enterprises.


What are the EC, BR and MCA frames?

The list of establishments as available from the Sixth Economic Census (EC) and Business Registers (BR), maintained by State Governments containing name, address and other valuable information were used to prepare list frame of 74th round.

Business registers were available for 11 States viz., Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Nagaland, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. These lists are referred to as ‘EC frame’ and ‘BR frame’ respectively in the rest of this report.


List of active private non-financial companies of 2013-14, as available from National Accounts Division (NAD), CSO, along with data for some additional companies based on such a list for 2014-15 were used as an additional frame to augment EC/ BR frame. This list was obtained by NAD
from the Ministry of Corporate Affairs. For these companies, worker information was not available, but auxiliary information such as industry group, revenue, GVA, etc. were available in addition to name. This list of enterprises is referred to as ‘Ministry of Corporate Affairs frame’ (‘MCA Frame’ in short) henceforth in this document. Postal addresses of the companies of the MCA frame as available from the website of the Ministry of Corporate Affairs were used through matching of Company Identification Number (CIN). Companies for which addresses were not available were removed from the frame.


The "MCA frame' had the most issues.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 11 May 2019 02:21

Survey Period: The period of survey was of one year starting on 1st July 2016 and ending on 30th June 2017. The survey period of this round was divided into two phases as follows:

Phase I : July 2016 – September 2016
Phase II : October 2016 – June 2017

In Phase I, updation work was carried out in respect of frames of EC and BR. Survey data was collected from the enterprises during Phase II.


There were 3,49,500 enterprises in the frame of MCA. The entire non-financial MCA database considered for this survey was divided into two sectors –

Complete enumeration:

(i) all companies which have reported annual revenue of Rs. 20 Cr. or more

(ii) all companies of the States with less than 100 Companies (Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya, Daman & Diu, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands),

(iii) remaining companies were stratified considering State × Industry group combination as strata (details of Industry group may be seen in para 1.4.5.2 of Appendix B). All companies belonging to a State × Industry group (strata) having less than 5 units were considered for complete enumeration.

Sample sector: remaining companies after identification of the units for complete enumeration.


After the completion of address verification in Phase-I, 27,964 service sector enterprises (excluding construction sector enterprises) were selected from EC/ BR frame and 35,456 enterprises were selected drawn from MCA frame. To fulfil the requirement of NAD, CSO, 239 construction sector enterprises were also selected for survey.

Out of total 63,420 service sector enterprises (excluding construction sector enterprises) selected for the survey, 42,262 enterprises (67% of allocated sample) were found to be in operation at the time of canvassing of schedules of enquiry.


Non-response of a large number of units was a major setback for this survey. This happened due to unit non-response, closure of the unit, unit found to be the one other than headquarter, unit out of coverage or unit non-traceable.


The problem of non-response was severe in case of units chosen from MCA frame.Table 5 below gives an overall picture of the situation. About 45% of MCA units were found to be out-of-survey/casualty while EC/BR frame had about 18% of such cases.


Image
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 11 May 2019 02:23

The distribution of surveyed enterprises by status codes are given in Table 6. Out of the 39% out-of-survey units in MCA, 21% were found to be out of coverage and another 12% were non-traceable (which in number is nearly 4000 units). In case of EC and BR frames, about 6% and 14% were out of coverage respectively even though there were updations of these two frames.

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 11 May 2019 02:32

Further notes:
In the EC and BR frames "Thus one part of population of establishments (those with 10-15 workers) was left out of coverage. The coverage of this population of establishments is truncated."

However, the MCA frame had no information about the number of workers, and in the actual sample, "about 20% of the enterprises were found to have less than 10 workers."

Thus, "The universe of the survey was, therefore, not well-defined".

Further:
Total number of enterprises in the list frame used for coverage of the survey was 3,49,500 for MCA and 1,34,982 for EC/BR frames leading to a total of 4,84,482 enterprises.

Although no reliable estimate of number of service sector enterprises in the country/States are available, a broad check with other databases (Current GSTN database / previous service tax database) indicates that the number of enterprises covered in the list frame of 74th round was quite low.


(emphasis added). That is, the MCA frame has less enterprises than those that paid service tax or have registered for GST Number. (GSTN = Goods & Services Tax Network database).

IMO, this would indicate a GDP **underestimate** using MCA data.

Anyway, the report is large, but available, and competent economists/statisticians here may take a look at it.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prem » 11 May 2019 03:12

https://www.mynation.com/views/how-fake ... ata-pralnj
How fake intellectuals are attacking Modi wrongly on NSSO data
In this report, NSSO stated that nearly 38% of the companies which were surveyed for GDP data using the ministry of corporate affairs 21 database were unusable for data collection purposes. The report further bifurcated this 38% companies into various categories which were “out-of-coverage companies” at 21%, 12% were untraceable and 4.5% companies were closed.All these intellectuals needed just this single line to cast aspersions on the entire GDP data itself. These highly politicised lot started saying that the entire integrity of the GDP data is questionable now. It’s much ado about nothing as 38% companies were wrongly classified under service sector but their output had been already calculated for GDP purposes.During and after demonetisation, probably with a larger goal in mind, the government started issuing show cause notices to firms/companies which were not filing the mandatory returns and asked them to either comply or explain the reasons thereof. Whichever companies failed to do so were treated as what we now call “shell companies” and were removed from the MCA-21 database. Effectively these companies were “deregistered” and their bank accounts were frozen. So, to explain in simpler words: those that did not comply with the law were treated as “shell companies” and “removed” from the database. This was move number 1 to clean the database of fake entries. Approximately 3 lakh companies were deleted. It is possible that many entities which were doing genuine business but were non-compliant in law also got deleted hence such genuine companies were given a window to approach National Company Law Tribunal, show that they aren’t shell companies, that they have genuine business and get their names restored in the database. Obviously a fake company will never do this. A genuine company would comply and the database would capture their numbers in GDP output. Hence objective no. 1 was successfully achieved.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby rhytha » 11 May 2019 23:56

Prem wrote:https://www.mynation.com/views/how-fake-intellectuals-are-attacking-modi-wrongly-on-nsso-data-pralnj
How fake intellectuals are attacking Modi wrongly on NSSO data
It is possible that many entities which were doing genuine business but were non-compliant in law also got deleted hence such genuine companies were given a window to approach National Company Law Tribunal, show that they aren’t shell companies, that they have genuine business and get their names restored in the database. Obviously a fake company will never do this. A genuine company would comply and the database would capture their numbers in GDP output. Hence objective no. 1 was successfully achieved.


This is nuts, if accidentally your company is debarred, no small company have enough resources to navigate the NCLT to get it restored, it would leave a very bad taste and impression on Modi. My company bank account was frozen last year, but luckily it was bank mistake and after bank VP got fired, our account was reopened after 10 days, even then they asked us to open a new fresh account, we said sure and promptly opened in another private bank ( and later closed the problem account)

Frankly from my assessment, many Just barely making profit company's that I know (they do provide legitimate employment for many people and are productive but run on tight budgets, mostly 1st generation but coupe of 2 nod generation as well) are really disappointed by Modi government because of e-KYC and constant issues with e-way bill and GST.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby tandav » 13 May 2019 14:46

rhytha wrote:
Prem wrote:https://www.mynation.com/views/how-fake-intellectuals-are-attacking-modi-wrongly-on-nsso-data-pralnj
How fake intellectuals are attacking Modi wrongly on NSSO data


This is nuts, if accidentally your company is debarred, no small company have enough resources to navigate the NCLT to get it restored, it would leave a very bad taste and impression on Modi. My company bank account was frozen last year, but luckily it was bank mistake and after bank VP got fired, our account was reopened after 10 days, even then they asked us to open a new fresh account, we said sure and promptly opened in another private bank ( and later closed the problem account)

Frankly from my assessment, many Just barely making profit company's that I know (they do provide legitimate employment for many people and are productive but run on tight budgets, mostly 1st generation but coupe of 2 nod generation as well) are really disappointed by Modi government because of e-KYC and constant issues with e-way bill and GST.


Our company main account got locked for 3 days in Jan 2019 due to non filing of GST in Karnataka that we were registered and had not done any business in... fault was of our CA but I was shocked to note that a single letter by a local GST office can wreck so much havoc, I was even more pissed at our Bank (SBI) which did not take any action to protect us (we have done Rs 20 Crs+ transactions in SBI over 5 years). Due to this account freeze action by Karnataka GST office on our Maharashtra bank account (which I felt was illegal) 10 EMI's bounced and we took nearly 1 month to extricate ourselves out of the mess... Karnataka GST officer garnished Rs 5 Lakhs from account but more importantly locked up our main account with more than Rs 50 Lakhs of cash that effectively stopped all our works nationwide for 10days... we could not pay salaries on time for the first time in 10 Years. The hit to our spotless credit rating will probably reflect next time we go for loans. Anyone else would be shouting from rooftops that GST has failed, Modi has failed etc etc but this was simply a Karnataka Tax officer overstepping his bounds.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Aditya_V » 13 May 2019 16:57

Boss, even in older VAT regime, Excise and Vat departments used to Freeze Bank accounts and and is even happening still today for C- Form and F-Form based Assessements pending. You will be surprised by the number of tools the Government departments have.

Your CA how has got you soo many registrations must be questioned? Its not the law but wrong advise is being given to you.

If you register in a state under GST you must file return or apply for cancellation of Returns- simple.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby rhytha » 13 May 2019 22:52

tandav wrote:
rhytha wrote:
This is nuts, if accidentally your company is debarred, no small company have enough resources to navigate the NCLT to get it restored, it would leave a very bad taste and impression on Modi. My company bank account was frozen last year, but luckily it was bank mistake and after bank VP got fired, our account was reopened after 10 days, even then they asked us to open a new fresh account, we said sure and promptly opened in another private bank ( and later closed the problem account)

Frankly from my assessment, many Just barely making profit company's that I know (they do provide legitimate employment for many people and are productive but run on tight budgets, mostly 1st generation but coupe of 2 nod generation as well) are really disappointed by Modi government because of e-KYC and constant issues with e-way bill and GST.


Our company main account got locked for 3 days in Jan 2019 due to non filing of GST in Karnataka that we were registered and had not done any business in... fault was of our CA but I was shocked to note that a single letter by a local GST office can wreck so much havoc, I was even more pissed at our Bank (SBI) which did not take any action to protect us (we have done Rs 20 Crs+ transactions in SBI over 5 years). Due to this account freeze action by Karnataka GST office on our Maharashtra bank account (which I felt was illegal) 10 EMI's bounced and we took nearly 1 month to extricate ourselves out of the mess... Karnataka GST officer garnished Rs 5 Lakhs from account but more importantly locked up our main account with more than Rs 50 Lakhs of cash that effectively stopped all our works nationwide for 10days... we could not pay salaries on time for the first time in 10 Years. The hit to our spotless credit rating will probably reflect next time we go for loans. Anyone else would be shouting from rooftops that GST has failed, Modi has failed etc etc but this was simply a Karnataka Tax officer overstepping his bounds.


I can understand this. Mine got locked for 10 days.

Unfortunately we cannot vote out bureaucracy. It's been nearly 4 months since we are trying to get back the BG we furnished for LUT, the GST circle commissioner is asking bribe or else bring in all the FIRC/NOC/Credit advise for all inward remittances, very frustrating.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 14 May 2019 22:03

http://www.mospi.gov.in has the press release with the latest price indices (April 2019, provisional, March 2019 final).
CPI = general consumer price index
CFPI = consumer food price index
Rural, Urban, Combined
For year-over-year (i.e., April 2019 over 2018) refer to MOSPI.
Base 2012 = 100

Code: Select all

                   Apr2019     Mar2019
CPI rural            141.7       141.2
CPI urban            140.5       139.5
CPI combined         141.1       140.4

CFPI rural           135.9       135.1
CFPI urban           139.9       137.3
CFPI combined        137.3       135.9

Next date of release: 12th June 2019 (Wednesday) for May 2019.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby tandav » 17 May 2019 10:33

X-post from Election thread

Manish_Sharma wrote:
aylamrin wrote:
We will have Bibi's help to desalinate water so that it is drinkable.


Where do you dump salts from desalination? It will destroy fields if dumped in earth. It will destroy marine life if dumped in ocean


Desalination salt water (50000+ ppm TDS) can be put into a salt pan / pond especially if the salt content is very large. Under the action of sun the salt will precipitate out and can be harvested for use or you can wash out excess salt to sea during monsoons. Ocean is the receiving body for salt... Every year Oceans receives billions of tons of salt leached out from land due to rainfall which forms rivers having salt concentration of ~10-100ppm. A few million tons of excess salt from human activity such as desalination will not drastically change things. note that the sun evaporates a huge quantity of water from oceans each day and deposits part of it on land... this is natural desalination, humans are only trying to get more fresh water to fall on land by whatever methods we adopt. Caveat: have not found very good data to support above assertions and I am working on getting the data.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vimal » 17 May 2019 11:12

rhytha wrote:
I can understand this. Mine got locked for 10 days.

Unfortunately we cannot vote out bureaucracy. It's been nearly 4 months since we are trying to get back the BG we furnished for LUT, the GST circle commissioner is asking bribe or else bring in all the FIRC/NOC/Credit advise for all inward remittances, very frustrating.


You might want to send a tweet to the concerned minister. Things tend to resolve pretty quickly there. But this is election season so might be slow.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 18 May 2019 15:49

Karolina Goswami on the Indian economy "Superpoor to Superpower". Nice summary.

https://youtu.be/Le8FB_YGdLU

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 18 May 2019 18:43

The kind of stuff out there!
https://theprint.in/opinion/watch-out-i ... my/236878/
Watch out India’s next govt, Modi regime is leaving behind an extremely weak economy
Industrial output has declined, manufacturing growth has hit a new low and banks are in woeful state. Agriculture is another story.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby pankajs » 19 May 2019 11:51

I haven't personally read this Morgan Stanley report ...

https://twitter.com/niteen_india/status ... 5424877568
Niteen S Dharmawat @niteen_india

Morgan Stanley in a recent report said 5-6% of India’s GDP is now moving through UPI.

All this adoption in just 18 months. Wow.

2/n
If someone thinks it's confined to metros, here is another shocker. 70% of Google Pay payment users are outside the top eight Metros.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kati » 22 May 2019 09:12

Warren Buffet of India is very bullish on the Indian Economy (with a praise for NaMo's reforms, and dismissing R Rajan's criticisms):

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/rakesh- ... -2020.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kit » 22 May 2019 11:14

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-7056795/US-firms-rethink-China-presence-trade-war-survey.html

But more than 40 percent said they were "considering or have relocated" production facilities outside China, with Mexico and Southeast Asia the prefered alternatives for manufacturing.

India needs to charm all these companies to invest entirely in India. If this is not the greatest opportunity to be a manufacturing powerhouse then what is

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 22 May 2019 20:37

Land and labor reforms needed.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby VKumar » 23 May 2019 03:08

This will be the last opportunity for leap-forward of manufacturing sector in India. Let's hope that we don't lose this opportunity.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Manu » 23 May 2019 03:23

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/22/opinion/why-india-needs-modi.html?login=email&auth=login-email
Why India Needs Modi
The country’s leader has fulfilled his economic promises.

By Steven Rattner
Mr. Rattner served as counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration.

Exit polls are predicting a significant win for Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India when final results are announced on Thursday. That’s not only good news for Mr. Modi; it’s also good news for his country.

While his bold economic policies generated a blizzard of controversy, I came away from a recent trip to India more optimistic about the prospects for India and its 1.3 billion people. For that, much credit goes to Mr. Modi. Elected in 2014 on a platform of aggressive change, he has delivered on important reforms to modernize India’s hidebound economy.

Perhaps the most important challenge that Mr. Modi had to address was lagging productivity. In part, that’s due to the country’s slowness to urbanize. Mumbai may be wildly overcrowded, but India’s overall urbanization rate is only 34 percent, compared with China’s 59 percent. And it’s also a consequence of poor infrastructure and the estimated 81 percent of Indians who work in the “informal” economy.

At first glance, some of Mr. Modi’s reforms may seem small. He replaced a portion of a complex tax system with a kind of national sales tax. The change is forcing businesses operating in the informal sector to regularize and — this is important — begin to pay taxes. (India’s taxes as a share of the size of the economy are among the lowest in the world.)

He instituted a new bankruptcy code. That may also appear minor, but providing a mechanism for reorganizing insolvent companies speedily is central to increasing private investment, a critical need for India. The list goes on.

To be sure, India’s growth rate, after picking up earlier in Mr. Modi’s tenure, has slowed a bit. But even the International Monetary Fund is optimistic about the prospect of a reacceleration.

Other measures also show promise. In the World Bank’s latest Ease of Doing Business Report, India rose to 77, up from 100 a year earlier, a jump that the bank’s president called “historic and unprecedented.”

The new approach has come with non economic improvements, everything from clean government (at least in proximity to Mr. Modi) to clean(er) cities.

Of course, Mr. Modi’s tenure has not been an unvarnished success. Even a sparkling growth rate isn’t enough to lift the standard of living in India close to that of China. Of late, a mini-financial crisis has put a damper on credit growth.
For many, the reforms (and in sectors like agriculture, the lack of them) have been tough. Agricultural employment and wages have fallen.


The tax reforms and failure to modernize labor markets have brought increased joblessness. And “demonetization” — elimination of old currency, a signature Modi initiative — has brought more dislocation than fiscal progress. When India’s rupee fell last year, the country’s reliance on imported oil meant soaring energy costs.

To some degree, Mr. Modi is suffering from a common problem of transformational leaders: unfulfilled lofty expectations.


India will not become China, with its vast investment in infrastructure, its world-class technology companies and its inescapable drive to succeed.

As recently as 1990, the economies of China and India were roughly the same size. Today, India’s gross domestic product per person ($2,000) is a fraction of China’s ($8,800).


Any hope of eclipsing China has vanished. Indeed, a government-sponsored think tank recently acknowledged that India would remain smaller than China even as far out as 2047.But at least for now, India’s rate of expansion is higher than China’s and for that, Mr. Modi deserves much credit. If India is to maintain that superior performance, it should stay the course with him.

For his part, Mr. Modi should recognize the importance of a less statist approach and pursue with more vigor important initiatives like deregulation and privatization of state-owned companies. A bit more Thatcherism would serve India well.

Steven Rattner, a counselor to the Treasury secretary in the Obama administration, is a Wall Street executive and a contributing opinion writer.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Manu » 23 May 2019 03:24

Can some Gurus comment on Above?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 23 May 2019 04:09

2047 is 28 years from now.
But 2019 is just 29 years from 1990.

I challenge you to find in 1989 anyone who got the Indian economy in 2020 right.

The message is that "if you extrapolate current trends India would remain smaller than China as far out as 2047". But just like the break from pre-1990 to post-1990, nothing binds India to keep doing things in the same way and sticking to the same trend line.

As to what policies India should pursue in order to grow faster - that is the multi-trillion rupee question. From a bottoms-up point of view, I'd look at the daily life of an average worker, and start trying to reform everything that holds them back in their growth. I'm sure there are smarter ways to go about figuring out what needs to be done. Then the hard part is to actually make those changes.


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