Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 22 Sep 2019 22:11

The problem with merging PSU banks is not just about the financial details, but how to handle the labour unrest by strong banking unions who would be concerned about redundancy and job losses. The government has generally shown itself to be careful at not creating new political problems for itself during reform measures, and something like this has the potential to create one unless carefully managed.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 22 Sep 2019 22:43

Kaivalya wrote:As promised: Summary of NBFC lending situation

Central bank canceled registrations of 1,851 non-bank finance companies in the year ended March 31, more than 8 times those in the previous year according to data received from the Reserve Bank of India in response to a Right to Information request. The number of lenders dropped to about 9,700, the lowest in at least a decade

This weed wacking that I presume was necessary due to the fact that a lot of the NBFCs could not generate the minimum required 2cr regulatory requirement capital. Unfortunately there is no medicine without side effect.

Source : https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 131_1.html

A rather large side effect is retail business, retail consumer, msme sector is hit especially to the most important segment of the credit market : New-to-Credit consumers. Since the financially included population is much smaller - credit growth stunts the larger part of the economy in general.

NBFC's have been leading the lending to New to Credit customers (as opposed to PSU banks etc ) and provide retail loans, msme loans etc to such an extent they lend more than all the other instituions combined.

Sorry to provide a rather large source report - I haven't had a chance to figure out adding relevant attachments to the post

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... 8962521982

Thank you!

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 22 Sep 2019 23:20

Public banks cannot be divested for another 20 years as they are required to service the lower sections of society. What will happen is that with the economy expanding more and more people will move out of that section and the PSUs are going to be further merged creating bigger banks with more lending power. Only when we have reached a certain inflexion point say 10000-15000 dollars per capita when their main purpose becomes less and less important can we think of privatization.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 22 Sep 2019 23:26

Supratik wrote:Public banks cannot be divested for another 20 years as they are required to service the lower sections of society. What will happen is that with the economy expanding more and more people will move out of that section and the PSUs are going to be further merged creating bigger banks with more lending power. Only when we have reached a certain inflexion point say 10000-15000 dollars per capita when their main purpose becomes less and less important can we think of privatization.

Private banks have been a disaster for most of the economies. They manage to manipulate regulation and end up going bankrupt. The public has to foot the bill.

I think all money invested by private individuals should be given only to low risk ventures.

Finance companies should be allowed, but public must be made aware that they may loose the money.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 23 Sep 2019 05:41

Direct tax collection up in April-September, but still short of target.

Total revenue collection by way of direct tax receipts is reported to have increased by 5.7 per cent to Rs5,50,000 crore in the April-September period of the current financial year, against Rs5,25,000 crore during April-September 2018-19.

Net collection (after deducting refunds) were up over 7 per cent at about Rs4,50,000 crore against Rs4,25,000 crore in April-September last fiscal, bringing some respite to the government, which is fighting revenue shortfalls. Direct tax collection for the first half of the fiscal year, however, is still far short of the targeted 16 per cent growth rate for the full year.

Advance tax collection during April-September 2019-20 stood at Rs2,20,000 crore, against Rs2,05,000 crore in the same period of the previous fiscal.The government has set a direct tax collection target of Rs13,35,000 crore for this fiscal year, which is 16 per cent higher than the budget estimate of Rs11,50,000 crore and 11.25 per cent higher than the revised estimate of Rs12,00,000 crore. To meet the target, tax collection must reach Rs7,85,000 crore – growing at a rate of 20 per cent - in the remaining six months of the financial year.

With the direct tax collection target unlikely to be met and GST collections too muted, the government’s revenue target poses a challenge, given the slowdown across various sectors of the economy. As things stand, the government may have to rework its deficit target of 3.3 per cent of GDP.

Of every rupee coming into the coffers, 68 paise will be from direct and indirect taxes. Corporation tax, the single-largest source, contributes 21 paise; income tax will yield 16 paise; and GST collections 19 paise.

kit · Post by **kit** » 23 Sep 2019 19:11

Labour party Ad but very relevant in Indian situation as well

Tax cuts for billionaires DONT work in stimulating economy, put money in the hands of the the hard working middle and lower classes to stimulate economy. Demonetisation took away a lot, time to give it back.

williams · Post by **williams** » 23 Sep 2019 19:23

Reducing corporate tax might encourage investment. Reducing income tax might improve consumption and savings. IMHO both are needed if there is surplus revenue. But we are not the US and we need to keep an eye on inflation while doing it.

Vadivel · Post by **Vadivel** » 23 Sep 2019 19:31

kit wrote:Labour party Ad but very relevant in Indian situation as well

Tax cuts for billionaires DONT work in stimulating economy, put money in the hands of the the hard working middle and lower classes to stimulate economy. Demonetisation took away a lot, time to give it back.

Orange and apple comparison.

Demonetisation was removing cash and moving to traceable transactions and trying to bring in in-formal to formal.
The demonetisized money was not given to corporates or billionaires.

If you mean the recent corporate tax cuts, they too are different in nature, that is for bringing in tax rates on par with other countries and become competitive with Asian countries which are attracting the migrating chinese business to India.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 23 Sep 2019 19:51

IT cuts are going to happen in the next budget.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Sep 2019 00:08

The equity markets clearly love the corporate tax cut - they're up by record amounts for a second day, Sensex up 1400 points, closing in on Sensex@40000.

Meanwhile:
Air India, Concor, BPCL to be privatized by March 2020

The Narendra Modi led central government is planning to sell its stakes in Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Container Corporation of India (CONCOR) and Air India by March 2020, claims a Reuters report.

The government hopes to raise Rs 60,000 crore from these sales to meet the divestment target of Rs 1.05 lakh crore it has set in the current financial year.

The government prefers to sell these public sector units to private local and foreign firms after the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) expressed reservations over Finance Ministry’s decision to sell stakes of one public unit to another.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Sep 2019 03:41

IT slab reform is something that's often demanded on this thread. Typically, this happens after a committee analyzes the matter and presents recommendations to the FinMin. Here's what happened from the most recent such committee:
Direct Tax Code Panel bats for 4 new IT slabs

The panel for drafting a new legislation on direct taxation has suggested an overhaul of personal income tax (I-T) slabs, to increase disposable income and give a fillip to consumer demand. Sources said the draft legislation had proposed four tax brackets by introducing a new slab of 35 per cent for those earning an annual income of Rs 2 crore and above.

The panel on the direct tax code (DTC) has also suggested the increase in the threshold for exemption from income tax to Rs 5 lakh a year from the current Rs 2.5 lakh.

The panel has proposed lower rates of 10 per cent for annual income between Rs 5 lakh and Rs 10 lakh, 20 per cent for income between Rs 10 lakh and Rs 20 lakh. For income of Rs 20 lakh to Rs 2 crore, the suggested rate is 30 per cent.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 24 Sep 2019 18:11

35% IT on above 2 crore is bad. It will lead to migration of HNIs to other countries.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 24 Sep 2019 18:41

^^ How much do you think they'll pay in these other countries? If anything, this 35% is lower than the 42% presently.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 24 Sep 2019 19:26

Oh, Ok. So it got reduced??

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 24 Sep 2019 21:28

Supratik wrote:35% IT on above 2 crore is bad. It will lead to migration of HNIs to other countries.

This has been explained by Suraj couple of times but it keeps coming back. Tax is paid where income is generated not where you live. If you could pay taxes where you live all HNI of the world be living somewhere in Panama or such place.

All taxes (corporate or individual) are paid to authorities of the place where economic activity occurred.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 24 Sep 2019 21:37

Supratik wrote:Public banks cannot be divested for another 20 years as they are required to service the lower sections of society. What will happen is that with the economy expanding more and more people will move out of that section and the PSUs are going to be further merged creating bigger banks with more lending power. Only when we have reached a certain inflexion point say 10000-15000 dollars per capita when their main purpose becomes less and less important can we think of privatization.

How do PSU serve lower sections of society? They were created to collect public money to serve the socialist governments, which when time came to payback the lenders jacked up inflation and usually paid back less than what it borrowed. Private banks are subjected to same rules and regulations as PSUs.
Anyhow the main issue is of efficiency, independence and professionalism in running the banks, whether it’s PSU or private does not make much of a difference.

A miss managed bank if its private costs a lot of money to its stock holders and promoters. In case of PSUs the cost falls on the tax payers.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 24 Sep 2019 21:37

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 24 Sep 2019 21:40

max IT rates will have to match corporate tax rate. correspondingly I think rates for all IT slabs will go down.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 24 Sep 2019 21:42

kit wrote:Labour party Ad but very relevant in Indian situation as well

Tax cuts for billionaires DONT work in stimulating economy, put money in the hands of the the hard working middle and lower classes to stimulate economy. Demonetisation took away a lot, time to give it back.

How is it relevant to Indian situation?

GoI has given tax cut to corporations not billionaires. When These billionaire would derive higher earnings from their stake-holdings they would pay the same old higher rates of taxes.

Katare · Post by **Katare** » 24 Sep 2019 22:16

Suraj wrote:IT slab reform is something that's often demanded on this thread. Typically, this happens after a committee analyzes the matter and presents recommendations to the FinMin. Here's what happened from the most recent such committee:
Direct Tax Code Panel bats for 4 new IT slabs
The panel for drafting a new legislation on direct taxation has suggested an overhaul of personal income tax (I-T) slabs, to increase disposable income and give a fillip to consumer demand. Sources said the draft legislation had proposed four tax brackets by introducing a new slab of 35 per cent for those earning an annual income of Rs 2 crore and above.

The panel on the direct tax code (DTC) has also suggested the increase in the threshold for exemption from income tax to Rs 5 lakh a year from the current Rs 2.5 lakh.

The panel has proposed lower rates of 10 per cent for annual income between Rs 5 lakh and Rs 10 lakh, 20 per cent for income between Rs 10 lakh and Rs 20 lakh. For income of Rs 20 lakh to Rs 2 crore, the suggested rate is 30 per cent.

These tax slabs are for “taxable income” not total income. On that taxable income you would pay highest rate of tax on a portion that is above the threshold. With Tax planning and available tax differed/free investment options most people would pay a fraction of those rates on total earnings. I almost always manage to bring my effective tax rate by two slabs in USA, by proper planning.

Effective tax rates are what counts not the slab rates

Bart S · Post by **Bart S** » 25 Sep 2019 19:18

VERY impressive discourse by Modiji at Bloomberg Global Business Forum, MUST WATCH:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noqVvOYasJQ

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 26 Sep 2019 04:03

Man - how can this guy dole out so many facts without even looking at a piece of paper

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 27 Sep 2019 08:19

suryag wrote:Man - how can this guy dole out so many facts without even looking at a piece of paper

Teleprompter.

But yes, no aids in the Q&A.

Rahulsidhu · Post by **Rahulsidhu** » 27 Sep 2019 17:02

Close of the first markets trading week post Corp tax cuts (Monday morning). Preliminary results:

Pluses
* Stocks up ~7%
* Rupee marginally higher
* Govt bonds marginally lower
* Business and consumer confidence boosted
* Global image burnished
* Political capital gained

Minuses
* A bunch of "experts" going "bUt whAT AboT tEh fIscaL deFICit"

Now we need to ask the experts what they expect the deleterious consequences of the projected higher deficits to be, in what timeframe and through what mechanism.

I am being generous here, since it can even be argued that future deficits%GDP would actually come down due to these cuts as the denominator is boosted.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Sep 2019 22:00

Rahulsidhu, you might like this too:
FM Nirmala Sitharaman tells ministries to clear pending dues; says govt’s capex on track

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said that the ministries with major infrastructure spend have been told to clear all non-litigated pending dues to MSMEs and service providers. Even the little pending payments should be cleared, she added. It comes after Finance Minister met with the secretaries and financial advisors of key selected ministries to review the total capital expenditure by the ministries in FY20 so far. The capital expenditure spend for the next two quarters has been discussed in the meeting today with the 21 ministries with major infrastructure spend, she added. Speaking at the conference, expenditure secretary GC Murmu said that the total capex spend stands at 42 per cen so far till August this year. He also said that the government’s capex is on track. The government sould know about he capex spend by each ministry in a week, she noted. Finance Minister will meet CPSEs tomorrow on capex spend.

Earlier this month, the Economic Affairs Secretary Atanu Chakraborty and Expenditure Secretary Girish Chandra Murmu held a meeting with officials from the ministries of road transport and highways, railways, telecom, and housing and urban affairs to review their capital expenditure programme.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 27 Sep 2019 22:57

Completely OT but what is the difference between Suraj and Sooraj on this forum are you the same person or different?

Uttam · Post by **Uttam** » 27 Sep 2019 23:53

vimal wrote:Completely OT but what is the difference between Suraj and Sooraj on this forum are you the same person or different?

That is certainly OT. Anyway, the answer I am confident in giving is that they are different people.

Rahulsidhu · Post by **Rahulsidhu** » 28 Sep 2019 14:15

Suraj wrote:Rahulsidhu, you might like this too:
FM Nirmala Sitharaman tells ministries to clear pending dues; says govt’s capex on track
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Friday said that the ministries with major infrastructure spend have been told to clear all non-litigated pending dues to MSMEs and service providers. Even the little pending payments should be cleared, she added. It comes after Finance Minister met with the secretaries and financial advisors of key selected ministries to review the total capital expenditure by the ministries in FY20 so far. The capital expenditure spend for the next two quarters has been discussed in the meeting today with the 21 ministries with major infrastructure spend, she added. Speaking at the conference, expenditure secretary GC Murmu said that the total capex spend stands at 42 per cen so far till August this year. He also said that the government’s capex is on track. The government sould know about he capex spend by each ministry in a week, she noted. Finance Minister will meet CPSEs tomorrow on capex spend.

Earlier this month, the Economic Affairs Secretary Atanu Chakraborty and Expenditure Secretary Girish Chandra Murmu held a meeting with officials from the ministries of road transport and highways, railways, telecom, and housing and urban affairs to review their capital expenditure programme.

Very good to see. When the diagnosis is right, so will the cure be.

Kaivalya · Post by **Kaivalya** » 28 Sep 2019 14:45

The issue of swiss accounts and unaccounted money has been a long running drama. I am hoping it unravels soon :

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 314213.cms

Motech Software from Andheri Area :

While publicly available official documents do not reveal much about this company's ownership and business dealings, its name figured in the leaked 'HSBC List' as the largest Indian account holder with nearly USD 500 million in a Geneva branch of the global banking giant and reports as well as some regulatory orders have suggested this company was originally set up by entities linked to one of the largest Indian conglomerates that later snapped all its ties.

I wish there was some crowd source way of gathering more information in a shorter period of time. 500 m$ is non trivial amount of money in 2011 to have stashed up in swiss account.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 28 Sep 2019 20:12

Not sure this is the right thread, but India's proposals for RCEP and what may be in the final agreement are here:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 344526.cms

Informed commentary I would be thankful for.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 29 Sep 2019 08:05

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 355851.cms

Ease of doing business: India among 20 most improved countries

The actual rankings will be released on October 19.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 30 Sep 2019 17:33

The Index of 8 Core Industries came in at 128.2 for August 2019, compared to 128.8 for August 2018 (i.e., a contraction of 0.5%).
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetail.aspx?PRID=1586710

Najunamar · Post by **Najunamar** » 30 Sep 2019 20:42

https://m.timesofindia.com/business/ind ... 378765.cms

So Q1 CAD has come down and this will have some deterioration in Q2 due to short spike in crude prices but not much perhaps! With higher gold prices imports may have moderated as well.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 30 Sep 2019 22:21

RBI likely to reduce repo rates by 25 bps on October 4: Goldman Sachs

The RBI is expected to go for a further rate cut in the ensuing monetary policy review meet amid weak economic activity and benign inflation, Goldman Sachs said in a report on Monday. According to the global financial services major, the RBI is likely to cut policy rate by 25 bps in October, and another 25 bps in December. “Based on the weakness in activity, still benign inflation, and soft global growth with central banks around the world in an easing mode, we believe the RBI MPC will almost certainly cut the policy repo rate on October 4th,” Goldman Sachs said in a report.

The central bank, which has already reduced the key policy rate four times in the current calendar year, is scheduled to announce its next bi-monthly monetary policy on October 4. As per the report, the easing cycle is expected to pause after an additional 50 bps as by December headline CPI inflation is expected to stand at close to 4 per cent, diminishing a case for further easing to continue.

Modi’s Nal se Jal mission becomes even more pertinent as districts remain parched

As several districts in India reel under a water crisis due to depleting water levels and irregular rainfall, Narendra Modi government’s flagship scheme for its second term Nal se Jal becomes even more important. Conceptualised under the umbrella scheme of Jal Jivan, Nal se Jal is an ambitious mission aiming to bring tap water to every Indian household by 2022. The mission, which is touted as a billions-of-dollars opportunity for investors by research and advisory firm Emkay, however, faces various constraints. Officials from the Jal Shakti ministry themselves are concerned about the lack of actual roadmap to executing the plan.

According to a latest report by The Indian Express, the situation in one of the drought-hit regions of Maharashtra is so severe that over 4,000 new wells need to be dug to tackle the crisis. Of its eight drought-hit districts, 600 wells each will be sunk. Owing to rainfall deficiency of 19-33 per cent, the region is likely to witness an acute scarcity of water starting December. Further, the depleting ground water in some areas, especially the Bundelkhand region of central India, has left the land dry and has caused the men of the area to remain unwedded, a Thomsan-Reuters report said in August.

The program might receive $70 billion through 2024:
Modi’s Nal se Jal water mission a pipe dream or $262 billion opportunity for investors?

As mission Nal se Jal is the most ambitious and perhaps most prioritized scheme for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s second term, the same may translate into billions-of-dollars opportunity for investors as the mechanism to take water to every household has been one of the most under focused areas till now. “Our deep-dive into this space suggests that although there is a case for $262 billion investment over the next three decades to boost water availability,” research and brokerage firm Emkay said in a report. However, the actual spending under the scheme is expected to be gradual, the report added. The government is expected to allocate a maximum of $70 billion through FY 2020-24, against the required $262 billion.

Even then, there are concerns that the Prime Minister’s pet scheme may remain just a pipe dream due to various constraints. While the Modi government set up an altogether new ministry for the Nal se Jal mission, the mission still lacks a clear pathway for its execution. “Our discussions with officials across the Jal Shakti Ministry, state water supply and sanitation departments, companies active in the water sector, and others indicate that there is little clarity on the actual roadmap across the chain as of now,” Emkay said in the report.

Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, the flagship scheme of Narendra Modi government’s first term, has been a resounding success and the mission overachieved its target of constructing nine crore toilets across India. However, unlike Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, Nal se Jal will face certain challenges which were elusive to Swacch Bharat Abhiyan (SBA). “This is because unlike SBA, the onus of actual construction, land acquisition, connectivity and water availability is on the government,” the Emkay report said. Further, the government also faces funding constraints, which can be taken care of only if investments in other infra sub-sector are paused. There are many fronts to the umbrella Jal Jivan Mission including river interlinking, water and sewage treatment, and irrigation, which also need government capex.

Modi government had announced its ‘Jal Jivan Mission’, which is the umbrella scheme for other programs like ‘Nal se Jal’, during the release of BJP manifesto 2019. The program aims at providing piped water connection to every house by 2024.

Saudi Arabia bets big on India, ready to invest $100 billion

Despite reeling under the impact of worst ever attacks on its oil installations, Saudi Arabia has said that it is looking at investing USD 100 billion in India in areas of petrochemicals, infrastructure and mining among others, considering the country’s growth potential. Saudi Ambassador Dr Saud bin Mohammed Al Sati has said India is an attractive investment destination for his country, the world’s biggest oil exporter, and it is eyeing long-term partnerships with New Delhi in key sectors like oil, gas and mining.

“Saudi Arabia is looking at making investments in India potentially worth USD 100 billion in the areas of energy, refining, petrochemicals, infrastructure, agriculture, minerals and mining,” Al Sati told PTI in an interview.

The envoy said investing in India’s value chain from oil supply, marketing, refining to petrochemicals and lubricants is a key part of Aramco’s global downstream strategy. “In this backdrop, Saudi Aramco’s proposed investments in India’s energy sector such as the USD 44 billion West Coast refinery and petrochemical project in Maharashtra and long term partnership with Reliance represent strategic milestones in our bilateral relationship,” he said.

The envoy said the vision 2030 of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will also result in significant expansion of trade and business between India and Saudi Arabia in diverse sectors. Under vision 2030, Saudi Arabia plans to diversify the Saudi economy while reducing its economic dependence on petroleum products.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 01 Oct 2019 02:39

Lower crude prices and higher invisible receipts have helped the country narrow the current account deficit to 2 percent of GDP or at USD 14.3 billion in the first quarter, down 30 basis points from year-ago, the Reserve Bank said on Monday.

https://www.financialexpress.com/econom ... t/1722351/

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Oct 2019 03:19

This monsoon was the most bountiful one since 1994:
Monsoon logs a double-digit surplus as season concludes

The South-West monsoon has returned a surplus of 10 per cent on its last day, with a depression drenching Gujarat and a lesser endowed cyclonic circulation wiping out the rain deficit in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

That leaves only Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi with any significant deficit (42 per cent), followed at some distance by West Uttar Pradesh (27 per cent); Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram-Tripura (22 per cent); and the plains of Bengal (20 per cent).

The monsoon had a poor outing in June, and fared only slightly better in July but came back strongly in August and September, riding the twin advantage of a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a benign tropical Pacific.

As seen above, the entire 2014-2019 five year period had deficient rainfall, which accumulates to low rural demand.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 02 Oct 2019 17:53

Reflecting consumption slowdown in the economy, the Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection fell 2.67 per cent to Rs 91,916 crore in September on a year on year basis.

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/slowdown- ... 1916-crore

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 02 Oct 2019 18:04

Supratik wrote:35% IT on above 2 crore is bad. It will lead to migration of HNIs to other countries.

to where sir? india they will still have lot of leeway in tax savings and fudging of numbers. But outside they will have to be really politically connected to do these things...that they woudl get away with in india

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 02 Oct 2019 22:02

That comment was corrected.

Manu · Post by **Manu** » 03 Oct 2019 02:39

Has any noble soul read Dr Su Swami's new book? Any useful nuggets that can be shared with the rest of us SDREs?