Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3961
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 04 Oct 2019 03:01

https://www.orfonline.org/research/econ ... odi-56004/
The economic mind of Narendra Modi
1 October 2019
HINDOL SENGUPTA


India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has always sought a methodology to create economic policy that goes beyond the communism-capitalism binary. While the BJP is assumed to be more free-market-friendly than its main rival, the Indian National Congress (INC), it is also true that the BJP government has usually greenlighted significant government expenditure in areas like infrastructure. The current BJP government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is building a model that marries some of the largest and most expensive government programmes ever rolled out in the history of independent India to deliver goods and services, with a simultaneous push to trigger mass entrepreneurship by introducing reforms such as major tax cuts. This brief examines the task for the BJP government.


Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12850
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 05 Oct 2019 01:29

As expected: RBI cuts rates by 0.25% to support growth
The Reserve Bank on Friday cut its key rates by 0.25 per cent to boost economy from six-year low saying reduction was necessary to revive growth.

With first quarter GDP growth plunging to 5 per cent, the RBI cut its estimate of economic growth in the current fiscal to 6.1 per cent from its earlier estimate of 6.9 per cent.

The most interesting thing is that the RBI is speaking about growth, rather than just restate its standard MPC inflation targeting goal. This indicates FinMin and RBI are working together.
This may not be the last rate cut by RBI this year; interest rates may fall below 5%, here’s why

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11432
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 05 Oct 2019 08:01

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/ ... cd3554cc5c
IHS Markit India Services PMI®
Including IHS Markit India Composite PMI®
Sales and business activity contract in September
Key findings
New business inflows fall for first time in 19 months... ...dragging output into contraction
Service sector sentiment dips to 31-month low

September data showed outright contractions in new business intakes and output, as lacklustre client demand weighed on the performance of the Indian service economy. Concurrently, business confidence sank to its lowest level in 31 months, while job creation moderated.

The latest results also highlighted subdued inflationary pressures in the sector, with input costs rising at the slowest rate in over two-and-a-half years.

At 48.7 in September, the IHS Markit India Services Business Activity Index posted inside contraction territory for the first time in three months. The headline figure was down from 52.4 in August and fell to its lowest mark since February 2018. Panellists indicated that the downturn stemmed from weak demand, competitive pressures and challenging market conditions.

New work intakes contracted in September, following an 18-month sequence of expansion. Where a reduction was reported, firms mentioned subdued demand conditions, unfair pricing among competitors and economic woes.

Indian services companies were able to secure new work from external markets. The increase in international orders was the seventh in consecutive months, with growth accelerating from August.

Services firms signalled higher payroll numbers in September, with the current sequence of job creation extended to 25 months. That said, the pace of employment growth was marginal and softened to the slowest since June.


Growth of Indian private sector activity came to a halt in September, ending a one-and-a-half-year sequence of expansion. The Composite* PMI Output Index fell from 52.6 in August to 49.8 in September, reflecting softer manufacturing production growth and an outright reduction in services activity.

Haresh
BRFite
Posts: 809
Joined: 30 Jun 2009 17:27

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Haresh » 07 Oct 2019 20:06

This is a request for some advice and assistance.

I visited my family in Punjab last year.

Rural Punjab remains dependent on agriculture.
While I was there I was asked by a few people if I could assist them economically. Now I can't just give them money, that would serve no purpose.
What I can do is assist & finance skill development.

What I want to know is, how can I help people in my pind attain skills in things like Phulkari and handicraft making?
I have emailed a few organisations, but none have replied.
Does anyone have any leads?
They are in Hoshiarpur District.

Suresh S
BRFite
Posts: 725
Joined: 25 Dec 2008 22:19

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suresh S » 07 Oct 2019 21:16

Please all BRFites contribute to Karolina Goswami,s, patreon website monthly to help this wonderful humanbeing who is doing more to improve India,s image than all of us combined. Suraj u can move it to whichever appropriate thread, thx.The documentary about Jamsaheb Digvijay Singh Jadeja, who once ruled Nawanagar in Gujarat and helped polish children, 1000 of them in 1942 during the second world war is a tear jerker. I encourage everyone to watch this.

Sicanta
BRFite
Posts: 1119
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 11:16

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Sicanta » 07 Oct 2019 22:32

Haresh wrote:Does anyone have any leads?
They are in Hoshiarpur District.


Best would be to personally contact the nabard ddm and lead bank manager ldm. They are the ones who run the skill development programmes for rural areas in concert with district administration. Nabard itself has subsidized schemes for such purpose. And they even organize skill dev camps for selected individuals.

http://www.ghargharrozgar.punjab.gov.in ... Hoshiarpur

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3961
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 07 Oct 2019 22:52

How are the new corporate and GST policies to revive growth are working? Is there any recovery signs? Can someone post any analysis?

Sicanta
BRFite
Posts: 1119
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 11:16

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Sicanta » 07 Oct 2019 23:26

Trade War: Why manufacturers are not rushing into India, Indonesia

https://m.economictimes.com/news/econom ... 474941.cms

Out of 56 companies that relocated their production out of China between April 2018 and August 2019, only three went to India and two to Indonesia. This was the finding of a study by Nomura, a Japanese financial group.

Out of the 56 firms, 26 relocated to Vietnam, 11 went to Taiwan and eight to Thailand.

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3961
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 07 Oct 2019 23:32

https://www.firstpost.com/business/with ... 62711.html
With consumer confidence at six-year low, government has few excuses left not to go in for a personal tax cut

Lower consumer confidence means lower spending by households on goods and services. Consumer confidence declined to a six-year low in September as sentiment on the overall economic conditions and employment availability expectations remained negative among households, according to a survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Consumer confidence trend has been assessed through the current situation index (CSI) and the future expectations index (FEI), both recorded a decline in September. Both CSI and FEI are compiled on the basis of net responses on the economic situation, income, spending, employment and the price level for the current period and a year ahead, respectively.


The survey was conducted among 5,192 households in 13 major cities with respect to perceptions and expectations on the general economic situation, the employment scenario, the overall price situation and their own income and spending.
The September round of business confidence surveys isn’t a surprise but a reaffirmation of the weakened consumer sentiment that has persisted over the last several months and is also reflected in the sales of goods and services. For instance, the automobile sector has been one of the worst-hit with sales declining to the lowest in two decades.
How can the consumer sentiment be improved and demand revived? The answer is simple—bringing confidence in consumers so as they are willing to spend by putting more money in their hands. What has been done so far? The RBI rate cuts have proved to be a dud as far as consumer spending is concerned.

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1211
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kati » 07 Oct 2019 23:38

Haresh wrote:This is a request for some advice and assistance.

I visited my family in Punjab last year.

Rural Punjab remains dependent on agriculture.
While I was there I was asked by a few people if I could assist them economically. Now I can't just give them money, that would serve no purpose.
What I can do is assist & finance skill development.

What I want to know is, how can I help people in my pind attain skills in things like Phulkari and handicraft making?
I have emailed a few organisations, but none have replied.
Does anyone have any leads?
They are in Hoshiarpur District.


Thanks Haresh-ji for raising a valid topic. I have had similar experience, and hence devised my own strategy.
I noted (among the people I interacted) that they were handicapped in terms of providing their kids good education, and taking care of health expenses for seniors. So I agreed to provide help on these two matters. Made sure that the kids get good education (got them admitted to better schools with required tutored) and helped with seniors regular medical check-ups as well as required treatments. This kinda helped the households to focus their energy and resources in slightly better wealth creation. (For one kid my help ended since she graduated with good marks and off to college.)

disha
BR Mainsite Crew
Posts: 7166
Joined: 03 Dec 2006 04:17
Location: gaganaviharin

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 08 Oct 2019 02:02

Haresh wrote:What I want to know is, how can I help people in my pind attain skills in things like Phulkari and handicraft making?
I have emailed a few organisations, but none have replied.
Does anyone have any leads?
They are in Hoshiarpur District.


Can you reach out to Smriti Irani (on twitter) or some way? Textile ministry is big into creating avenues for handloom/handicraft and they might be of some help. Maybe through some local cooperatives. Also if there is proper quality assurance, you can sell it directly on Amazon!

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2515
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 08 Oct 2019 02:28

Sicanta wrote:Trade War: Why manufacturers are not rushing into India, Indonesia

https://m.economictimes.com/news/econom ... 474941.cms

Out of 56 companies that relocated their production out of China between April 2018 and August 2019, only three went to India and two to Indonesia. This was the finding of a study by Nomura, a Japanese financial group.

Out of the 56 firms, 26 relocated to Vietnam, 11 went to Taiwan and eight to Thailand.


It just means, the stuff is still produced in China, but packaged in Vietnam. So pick the nearest country to do the packaging/assembly.

kvraghav
BRFite
Posts: 771
Joined: 17 Apr 2008 11:47
Location: Some where near the equator

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kvraghav » 08 Oct 2019 09:47

And Vietnam has the highest number of FTA. We should exclude anything which forms more than 5% of total imports from the FTA. It is damaging our economy and the entire TV production has moved to Vietnam.

Haresh
BRFite
Posts: 809
Joined: 30 Jun 2009 17:27

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Haresh » 08 Oct 2019 16:47

Sicanta wrote:Best would be to personally contact the nabard ddm and lead bank manager ldm. They are the ones who run the skill development programmes for rural areas in concert with district administration. Nabard itself has subsidized schemes for such purpose. And they even organize skill dev camps for selected individuals.


Thanks for the link, you will have to assist me some more!!!

What who is the nabard ddm?
What who is lead bank manager ldm??

In my experience, enquiries are just not answered!!!

I have contacted this organisations via Facebook http://www.phulkariindia.com/aboutus.html
No reply!

Maybe what BR forum needs to do is set up a thread where each state and district within each state has reliable contacts who can assist is ground level research.

If you have a look on the Christianity, Evangelism thread please see my recent comments.
People are desperate, that is why these missionaries are having such success.
I have seen it.
No care for the poor in the villages.

Haresh
BRFite
Posts: 809
Joined: 30 Jun 2009 17:27

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Haresh » 08 Oct 2019 17:01

disha wrote:Can you reach out to Smriti Irani (on twitter) or some way? Textile ministry is big into creating avenues for handloom/handicraft and they might be of some help. Maybe through some local cooperatives. Also if there is proper quality assurance, you can sell it directly on Amazon!


I will contact her, however you need to bare in mind I live in London.

My relations entire world is their village, they are not worldly educated people.
I have no well intentioned, well educated contacts there who are willing to help.
First they need to be trained. Then they will need to be trained to market & sell on the internet.
I have to change mindsets.

I am visiting again next year in Sept with my very English son, he wants to reconnect with his roots.

Haresh
BRFite
Posts: 809
Joined: 30 Jun 2009 17:27

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Haresh » 08 Oct 2019 17:03

Kati wrote:
Haresh wrote:
Thanks Haresh-ji for raising a valid topic. I have had similar experience, and hence devised my own strategy.
I noted (among the people I interacted) that they were handicapped in terms of providing their kids good education, and taking care of health expenses for seniors. So I agreed to provide help on these two matters. Made sure that the kids get good education (got them admitted to better schools with required tutored) and helped with seniors regular medical check-ups as well as required treatments. This kinda helped the households to focus their energy and resources in slightly better wealth creation. (For one kid my help ended since she graduated with good marks and off to college.)


My intention is to help people aquire skills and become self sufficient, I am not in a position to just hand over money to them.
I live in London.

How did you accomplish all of this, do you live there? Do you deal with an organisation or trusted family individuals?

Kati
BRFite
Posts: 1211
Joined: 27 Jun 1999 11:31
Location: The planet Earth

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kati » 08 Oct 2019 18:46

^^^^^
Yes, I did appoint an trusted elderly relative to look after the entire matter, and channelized the resources through this person.

The girl who graduated (as mentioned in my last post above) with our financial support is a success story. She comes from a
background where the womenfolks barely study max fourth class, and get married by they turn 15. In her case, she studied
smoothly class XII, got vocational training in optometry. Now she's gone to a bigger city for further training. Her job at any eye
clinic is now guaranteed........

Talk about skill development.

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3330
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kit » 08 Oct 2019 20:03

nam wrote:
Sicanta wrote:Trade War: Why manufacturers are not rushing into India, Indonesia

https://m.economictimes.com/news/econom ... 474941.cms



It just means, the stuff is still produced in China, but packaged in Vietnam. So pick the nearest country to do the packaging/assembly.


Is there a mechanism to ensure " packaged " or "assembled" products does not = manufacture while signing off on trade treaties with ASEAN, looks like the Chinese are swamping the area with assembled goods that sneak into large trade nations like India to take advantage of " free trade" agreements

vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3961
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 09 Oct 2019 02:50


Ashok Bhattacharya

@AshokAkaybee

Mahesh Vyas’ CMIE survey, which reported an 11 million year-on-year job loss in December 2018, now says that September 2019 saw a 7 million increase in jobs. Is that a development that others have missed?


So this CMIE survey by Mahesh Vyas reported 50 year unemployment record in Dec 2018 and everything turned upside down by Sept 2019.

:shock:

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... N2cWFiUT0=

Sep 2019 was arguably the best month for Indian labour markets in 3 years
The estimated number of people employed shot up to nearly 410 million in September 2019

The month of September 2019 was arguably the best month for the labour markets in India in almost three years. Labour participation increased, employment increased sharply, the employment rate increased and the unemployment rate fell significantly. And, these improvements were across rural and urban regions, albeit very unevenly.
The estimated number of people employed shot up to nearly 410 million in September 2019. This was nearly 7 million more than the 403 million that were employed in August. It was also nearly 7 million higher than it was a year ago. Month-on-month estimates can be volatile and so, the 7 million increase could be partly statistical noise. Yet, it is large enough to believe that there was a substantial pick-up in employment during September 2019.

The labour force increased from 439 million in August 2019 to 441 million in September 2019. A year ago, the labour force was 431 million. These are big increases, bigger than the projected increase in the working-age population during the same period.
The labour force participation rate increased from 43 per cent in August to 43.2 per cent in September. More significantly, the employment rate increased from 39.5 per cent to 40.1 per cent during this period.
The employment rate is perhaps, the single most important number in the slew of fast-frequency labour market indicators. It is the share of the working-age population that is employed. India's challenge on the employment front is best captured by this metric. The employment rate has been falling almost steadily for a long time. This implies that an increasingly smaller proportion of the population that could be employed is actually harnessed for the purpose. As a result, even after the increase in the employment rate in September 2019, it is lower than the 40.3 per cent level it was a year ago and 41.6 per cent it was two years ago.
Similarly, good progress was made on the unemployment rate front, which fell from a high of 8.2 per cent in August to 7.2 per cent in September. However, the unemployment rate is higher than the 6.5 per cent level it was at a year ago.
While the labour market metrics improved in rural and urban areas, the robust increases reflect largely the big strides made in rural India.
Employment in rural India shot up by 6 million in September 2019 -- from 276 million in August to 282 million. Note that the all-India increase in employment during the month was 7 million.


Note that while the labour force increased by 1.8 million, employment increased by 6 million. This implies a reduction in the unemployed. The count of the unemployed in fact, did fall by over 4 million in September.
The rural labour force crossed 300 million in September 2019. Of these, 282 million were employed. And 18 million were unemployed. Another 7 million were willing to work but were not actively looking for jobs and so were not counted as unemployed.



Read this thread to understand this CMIE
https://twitter.com/Shivam_h9/status/11 ... 4672998400

https://www.opindia.com/2019/04/cmie-th ... ssion=true
https://www.sundayguardianlive.com/news ... al-markets

M_Joshi
BRFite
Posts: 133
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:06

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby M_Joshi » 09 Oct 2019 22:44

Ques to learned gurus. Why isn't govt considering printing more currency to spur infra investment as public undertaking projects? Inflation is at record lows & addition of 2-3% points in inflation won't hurt much currently.

yensoy
BRFite
Posts: 1460
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 09 Oct 2019 23:01

M_Joshi wrote:Ques to learned gurus. Why isn't govt considering printing more currency to spur infra investment as public undertaking projects? Inflation is at record lows & addition of 2-3% points in inflation won't hurt much currently.


This is a trillion dollar question. Really. Instead of pushing for public spending, govt is trying to privatize whatever family silver they can get hold of. Tejas trains. IIT MTech fee hike and stipend cut is another short-sighted move along the same lines. Unfortunately, an accountant can't run the economy of a country - just keeping an eagle eye on the bottom line doesn't help a company or a country. That has to be one item for sure; but really what we need is top line growth, which can only happen if govt pushes for public expenditure with long term benefits, such as what you are talking about.

hgupta
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 77
Joined: 20 Oct 2018 14:17

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hgupta » 10 Oct 2019 02:20

M_Joshi wrote:Ques to learned gurus. Why isn't govt considering printing more currency to spur infra investment as public undertaking projects? Inflation is at record lows & addition of 2-3% points in inflation won't hurt much currently.


India is not like America where dollar is the de factor global currency. Any move to print more currency will result in inflation that GOI may not be able to control.

India has to make sure that the demand is there and sustainable and that the people can pay for it soon.

hanumadu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4412
Joined: 11 Nov 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 10 Oct 2019 08:39

M_Joshi wrote:Ques to learned gurus. Why isn't govt considering printing more currency to spur infra investment as public undertaking projects? Inflation is at record lows & addition of 2-3% points in inflation won't hurt much currently.


We can't use all the ammunition in one go. If the economy does not respond to the measures already taken, we wan't to have some options. The world economy hasn't bottomed out yet. Recession is yet to come next year. It will affect India also negatively. We might want to save some pump priming for later. Hopefully, it won't come to that.

JayS
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4280
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 10 Oct 2019 10:50

nam wrote:
Sicanta wrote:Trade War: Why manufacturers are not rushing into India, Indonesia

https://m.economictimes.com/news/econom ... 474941.cms



It just means, the stuff is still produced in China, but packaged in Vietnam. So pick the nearest country to do the packaging/assembly.


That's the Chinese way of bypassing restrictions. That's why people are opposing more concessions in FTAs with SE Asian countries. The Chinese simply bypass our regulations by routing it through SE Asian countries.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12850
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 10 Oct 2019 11:40

M_Joshi wrote:Ques to learned gurus. Why isn't govt considering printing more currency to spur infra investment as public undertaking projects? Inflation is at record lows & addition of 2-3% points in inflation won't hurt much currently.

It's a fundamental misunderstanding that 'print more money' can solve things just like that. Good solutions start with a good understanding of the problem, and 'print more money' is a classic example of not quite understanding the problem, much less the dynamics of the suggested solution. It's worth this thread to learn about the problem rather than to propose solution, and if you have understood the problem, spend time to describe it in detail before a solution is presented. A lot of good discussions are built upon digging into an understanding of the problem.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2515
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 10 Oct 2019 12:54

JayS wrote:
nam wrote:
It just means, the stuff is still produced in China, but packaged in Vietnam. So pick the nearest country to do the packaging/assembly.


That's the Chinese way of bypassing restrictions. That's why people are opposing more concessions in FTAs with SE Asian countries. The Chinese simply bypass our regulations by routing it through SE Asian countries.


Yes, the Chinis are using Burma and other Asian countries where we have FTA, to push in their goods in to our market.

Mukesh.Kumar
BRFite
Posts: 1019
Joined: 06 Dec 2009 14:09

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 10 Oct 2019 13:14

Suraj wrote:
M_Joshi wrote:Ques to learned gurus. Why isn't govt considering printing more currency to spur infra investment as public undertaking projects? Inflation is at record lows & addition of 2-3% points in inflation won't hurt much currently.

It's a fundamental misunderstanding that 'print more money' can solve things just like that. Good solutions start with a good understanding of the problem, and 'print more money' is a classic example of not quite understanding the problem, much less the dynamics of the suggested solution. It's worth this thread to learn about the problem rather than to propose solution, and if you have understood the problem, spend time to describe it in detail before a solution is presented. A lot of good discussions are built upon digging into an understanding of the problem.


++1 Suraj-san. What we all miss out is that the government cannot just print money. To print X rupees it had to borrow from the Central Bank the same amount guaranteed against future tax receipts or revenue from other sources. Now a promissory note by a sovereign government is valid as long as toy don't overdo it. If toy borrow recklessly then people will start questioning the feasabillity of repayment. They will either SK for higher returns (interests) to partake of the risk and if overcome will start to value the worth of your currency less. Same amount of money buying smaller basket of goods (inflation). And over the last decade plus we have seen governments around the world use this tool as the only handset in town. More i see it more i become wary of the neo-Keynesian model of economic development reliant on printing your way out of fundamental economic problems.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19973
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 10 Oct 2019 13:18

nam wrote:
JayS wrote:
That's the Chinese way of bypassing restrictions. That's why people are opposing more concessions in FTAs with SE Asian countries. The Chinese simply bypass our regulations by routing it through SE Asian countries.


Yes, the Chinis are using Burma and other Asian countries where we have FTA, to push in their goods in to our market.


It simply cannot be done without the active collaboration of our guys so a few well publicised IT raids would be justified, followed by a tihar tour for some of these people.

Uttam
BRFite
Posts: 290
Joined: 15 Apr 2003 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Uttam » 10 Oct 2019 20:06

There is a fundamental misunderstanding of what currency is. It is simply a non interest bearing bond issued by the government. That is, it is an IOU signed by the government to whoever takes that currency. When the government increases the amount of currency but the amount of economic activity is unchanged, then the same mount of goods and services will be chased the larger amount of money, which is by definition inflation.

This is not to say that government shouldn’t ever use this tool. Short term slowdowns can be effectively addressed by deficit spending but in long run these will always be inflationary.

Ultimate goal is to increase the amount of goods and services produced by the economy. Printing money can provide a very short term boost but in long term we will be slipping to the days of high inflation like UPA-2.

Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1090
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rishirishi » 11 Oct 2019 04:30

Mukesh.Kumar wrote:
Suraj wrote:It's a fundamental misunderstanding that 'print more money' can solve things just like that. Good solutions start with a good understanding of the problem, and 'print more money' is a classic example of not quite understanding the problem, much less the dynamics of the suggested solution. It's worth this thread to learn about the problem rather than to propose solution, and if you have understood the problem, spend time to describe it in detail before a solution is presented. A lot of good discussions are built upon digging into an understanding of the problem.


++1 Suraj-san. What we all miss out is that the government cannot just print money. To print X rupees it had to borrow from the Central Bank the same amount guaranteed against future tax receipts or revenue from other sources. Now a promissory note by a sovereign government is valid as long as toy don't overdo it. If toy borrow recklessly then people will start questioning the feasabillity of repayment. They will either SK for higher returns (interests) to partake of the risk and if overcome will start to value the worth of your currency less. Same amount of money buying smaller basket of goods (inflation). And over the last decade plus we have seen governments around the world use this tool as the only handset in town. More i see it more i become wary of the neo-Keynesian model of economic development reliant on printing your way out of fundamental economic problems.


The government can print money and spend it. But it will cause inflation to rise.

ArjunPandit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2862
Joined: 29 Mar 2017 06:37

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 11 Oct 2019 06:47

based on what i see the problem has moved to the demand side...while i will not go to the extreme of saying that people dont have money to buy parle g, or the other extreme that so many iphones got sold...given the current economic scenario opening up of purses wont be a bad thing to do.
The only hurdle that i see to that is inefficiencies in the banking system, which are attenuating the effect transfer..while books have been cleaned but the way things are there's not guarantee or that such NPA mess wont be created again or banks wont be defrauded..

yensoy
BRFite
Posts: 1460
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 11 Oct 2019 07:08

Inflation will only happen if money "printed" reaches the people. Instead if the government takes borrowings and invests in public works projects, it is not directly inflating the economy and won't cause direct inflation. There will be second-order effects due to increased demand for labour and consequent rise in wages; there could very well be disinflating effects such as reduced home prices due to more availability of land (for instance if the project is to expand the city to larger planned layouts with better infra).

OTOH if govt borrows money and increases government worker salaries, or subsidies to people, or pushes consumer loans at lower rates, that will have a direct bearing on inflation.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12850
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 11 Oct 2019 08:07

That depends on the quality of the public works programs. On one end you can have Chinese style road/HSR building that builds assets and per capita income. On the other end you can have NREGA like nominally guaranteed work programs whose adverse aftereffects still affect the economy a decade later.

As I stated before, please don't be in a rush to state a solution without carefully describing the problem first. A detailed analysis of the problem is a far more meaningful exercise.

Monetary expansion is going to go somewhere. It could be a central bank balance sheet expansion targeting government bonds, but then you'd have a bubble in those bonds. Or it could affect mortgage, corporate and muni bonds. It could cause a bubble in the equity markets.

Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10121
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vayutuvan » 11 Oct 2019 10:19

does India have muni bonds? news to me.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12850
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 11 Oct 2019 11:20

Vayutuvan wrote:does India have muni bonds? news to me.

There are, but they're affected by poor, inconsistent or opaque fiscal management on the part of various municipal corporations. However, RBI has been pushing reforms on this front:
Apr 2019: RBI boost for yet-to-be-popular municipal bonds
Apr 2019: RBI allows foreign investors to hold muni bonds
A handful of rated municipal bodies in India have issued publicly listed bonds in recent years. Rating agency Crisil estimates that about Rs 2,500 crore in such bonds are outstanding. While the municipal bodies that have come to market are well-rated, investors have been cautious because of the lack of transparency around municipal finances in general.

There are over 3,723 urban-local bodies in the country, of which 109 are municipal corporations and 1,432 are municipalities, according to the Thirteenth Finance Commission. To help these bodies fund local infrastructure projects, municipal bonds were introduced in 1997. The Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation and Bangalore Municipal Corporation were among the first issuers. Since then others like the Pune Municipal Corporation have also issued publicly listed bonds.

While there have been sporadic issuances, lack of transparency in finances of a large number of municipal corporations has kept them away from the markets.

JayS
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4280
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 11 Oct 2019 12:36

chetak wrote:
nam wrote:
Yes, the Chinis are using Burma and other Asian countries where we have FTA, to push in their goods in to our market.


It simply cannot be done without the active collaboration of our guys so a few well publicised IT raids would be justified, followed by a tihar tour for some of these people.


While that is likely to be true, there are fundamental issues with the FTAs. We are not the only country fighting with this Chinese onslaught. Western countries also are facing these issues and China focuses more on Western countries as the bang for the buck is much more there. IIRC Indian government is trying to push for a clause in FTAs with SE Asian countries that a certain minimum % of value addition must happen in the country which is final in the chain and is importing to India. This is absent in previous FTAs, perhaps no one imagined Chinese will exploit this loop hole. But as you could imagine its difficult to have mechanisms in place to always ascertain % of value addition. A simple cooking of books can easily fool the system in some cases. Unless the country in question is willing to co-operate its difficult to catch the perpetrators. And why would the SE Asian countries co-operate with India against Chinese..? Many businesses there are in fact owned by the Chinese directly or indirectly and their economies are heavily dependent on China. Unless of coarse India could provide an alternative to China. But you know where we are on that front.

nam
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2515
Joined: 05 Jan 2017 20:48

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 11 Oct 2019 13:30

The SE Asia obviously love the Chinese routing goods through their country. They get exports on their book and taxes, without actually doing anything.

Even if we insist on value addition, they can easily cook up the books. Instead of putting made in burma on a phone box, they will put made in burma on the phone cover!

The way out of this is to insist on some sort of equalized trading. You cannot export goods to India, if you are not importing at-least 3/4 of your exports.

US & India are the biggest account deficient economies in the world. We are the one driving the demand.

Haresh
BRFite
Posts: 809
Joined: 30 Jun 2009 17:27

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Haresh » 11 Oct 2019 19:23

Kati wrote:Yes, I did appoint an trusted elderly relative to look after the entire matter, and channelized the resources through this person.

The girl who graduated (as mentioned in my last post above) with our financial support is a success story. She comes from a
background where the womenfolks barely study max fourth class, and get married by they turn 15. In her case, she studied
smoothly class XII, got vocational training in optometry. Now she's gone to a bigger city for further training. Her job at any eye
clinic is now guaranteed........

Talk about skill development.


That's fantastic, I salute you.
Now although I work in IT I have always been good at making things with my hands. Craft courses are quite easy to attend in London so I am thinking of the following:
Jewelry Making: https://www.londonjewelleryschool.co.uk

Block Printing : https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=Mnyg ... _cZKtJXFx8

Cabinet Making:
https://www.google.co.uk/search?ei=qoSg ... CAs&uact=5

Once the basics are learnt, the rest falls into place quite quickly

I would learn these skills and then pass them on to those who were interested in my maternal village.

The problem I encountered when I enquired in India was that those with these skills all belonged to particular castes/communities and wanted to hold onto a monopoly of skills, so would not pass on those skills to those out of their caste.

Official Government courses/colleges were unresponsive.

I will not be there to supervise people, the idea is to teach them basic skills and then leave them to develop the rest.

What would you advise?

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11432
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 11 Oct 2019 23:49

http://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/f ... paug19.pdf (PDF file)
MOSPI:

The Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2011-12 for the month of August 2019 stands at 126.6, which is 1.1 percent lower as compared to the level in the month of August 2018 {128.0}.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12850
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 12 Oct 2019 03:20

Couldn't find this on the CBDT site. Please post a link to original report if it's online:
Number of crorepati taxpayers up 20 per cent to 97,689 in AY 2018-19: CBDT data
The number of crorepati taxpayers shot up 20 per cent to 97,689 during assessment year (AY) 2018-19, as per tax returns data released by the revenue department. The number such individuals having taxable income of over Rs 1 crore stood at 81,344 during AY 2017-18.

The Central Board of Direct Taxes on Friday released time-series data updated up to fiscal year 2018-19 and income-distribution data for AY 2018-19 (fiscal year 2017-18). The data includes income-distribution information of corporate, firms, Hindu Undivided Families (HUFs) and individuals.

If all taxpayers are included, the number of those with taxable income of more than Rs 1 crore per annum rises to about 1.67 lakh, a 19 per cent rise over AY 2017-18.
In all, more than 5.87 crore income tax returns were filled, as per the statistics generated from e-filed returns (digitally signed, e-verified or where ITRV has been received) submitted up to August 15, 2019. The data revealed that over 5.52 crore individuals, 11.3 lakh HUFs, 12.69 lakh firms and 8.41 lakh companies were among those who filed returns.

Credit growth drops to single digits in September
Reflecting the deepening economic crisis arising from both structural and cyclical issues and a massive fall in consumption demand, bank credit growth rate, for the first time this fiscal, slowed to single digit at 8.8 percent to Rs 97.71 lakh crore during the fortnight to September 27, according to the Reserve Bank of India data.

In the first fortnight of the fiscal ending April 12, the credit demand grew 14.19 percent after closing the previous fiscal at 13.24 percent. Throughout this fiscal so far, credit growth has been in the low-double-digit.

Credit demand has slowed to single digit as the mainstay of banks-personal loans and demand from services sector lost their momentum. While credit growth rate to the services sector more than halved to 13.3 percent in August from 26.7 per cent a year ago, personal loans growth also moderated to 15.6 percent in August from 18.2 percent in August 2018.

The only silver lining was demand from the industry, which more than doubled to 3.9 percent in August from 1.9 percent in August 2018. In the fortnight to September 27, deposits growth too slowed to 9.38 percent to Rs 129.06 lakh crore from Rs 118 lakh crore a year ago. On annualized basis, non-food credit growth decelerated to 9.8 percent in August 2019 from 12.4 percent in August 2018. Loans to agriculture & allied activities increased 6.8 percent in August compared to an increase of 6.6 percent last year same month.

Reservoirs are nearly 90 per cent full
Image


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests