Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kit » 05 Nov 2019 16:49

tandav wrote:The more important question is how do we become competitive. 10 years is a massive amount of time and the world will not wait around. We have to step up our game by orders of magnitude.



For India 10 years is not a long time !., imagine a speed boat and an ocean liner trying to turn around.( eg for speed boat = Singapore ; the ocean liner = India )

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 18:43

Narendra Modi has done well to keep India out of RCEP, but WTO-style bargaining for future entry is a good idea




Narendra Modi has done well to keep India out of RCEP, but WTO-style bargaining for future entry is a good idea

Madhavan Narayanan,
Nov 05, 2019

India's economy and polity both have a strong agricultural grounding, and its demographics are such that more than a billion people depend on their livelihoods in a stable farming environment
Imports may threaten farm sector competitiveness while rising farm prices threaten consumer price stability for the industry and service sectors

RCEP is essentially a move to counter the US, which has a special relationship with India on everything from technology-based industries to security aspects

There is a Hindi proverb to describe those who invite trouble: "Aa bail, mujhe maar" (Come bull, gore me). We might as well invent a new-age idiom if we were to invite trouble in a manner that China would trouble India's economy: "Come dragon, gore me". As it happens, China is an ostensible trading partner for India, but from security issues to manufacturing competitiveness, things are on such a fragile ground between the two Asian giants that it makes sense to hasten slowly on everything in which the elephant might want to embrace the dragon.

To this, we might add the idea that Australia and New Zealand, ever the friendly economies for India, can be seen in a different light when they are viewed as agricultural superpowers.

In such a context, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has done the wise thing in keeping India out of the ambitious Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the planned ASEAN-plus free trade area with ten members of the Association of South East Nations (ASEAN) joining Japan, Oceania, South Korea and China. His own self-image as a decisive leader has been asserted in the process, but more importantly, it shows that joining the RCEP as a founding member would be a risk India can ill-afford in a new world economic order.

Narendra Modi has done well to keep India out of RCEP, but WTO-style bargaining for future entry is a good idea

While RCEP, now reduced to 15 members after India's decision, may be painted as a single economic grouping that offers low tariff barriers and market access to member economies, the simple fact is that the dice are loaded against India in what would be a certain gamble in uncertain times for India's struggling economy. India has enough wounds to heal in its economy before it can afford to play footsie with Asia-Pacific wannabes offering a charming embrace.

India's economy and polity both have a strong agricultural grounding, and its demographics are such that more than a billion people depend on their livelihoods in a stable farming environment. Farmers, on the other hand, are not a happy lot. From unremunerative agricultural prices to restrictions on crop residue burning, they walk the wedge as much as India's manufacturers have to look over their shoulders to see if Chinese counterparts are selling or dumping goods in a manner that threatens their future.

Consider the fact that both the white and green revolutions that India can be proud of are at potential risk. Australia and New Zealand, who we have just started outshining in our favourite sport, may well turn the economic game into something that is simply not cricket. Farm wages are rising in India, while the demographics are such that food security is a double-headed problem. Imports may threaten farm sector competitiveness while rising farm prices threaten consumer price stability for the industry and service sectors.

Modi has, therefore, rightly invoked a Gandhian allusion to considering the plight of the poor and the farmers in rejecting the RCEP.

At one level, the staying out does question India's credentials in the march to globalisation, but this is not 1991, when the domestic economy was in a balance of payments crisis and opportunities and threats were both conducive to a step towards globalisation. A few years later, when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) came to power, it invented a term called "calibrated globalisation" in its bid to defend the domestic industry from being quickly cast to the uncertain whirlwinds of global capital. The situation has not changed much since then as far as India's manufacturing and agricultural sectors are concerned.

India's core strength is human capital, and anti-immigration and protectionist narratives in the West are gently but firmly laying down limits to leveraging India's inherent potential. On the other hand, 63 years of active industrialisation since the start of the second Five Year Plan in 1956 has given India a strong manufacturing base. It is not good enough to uniformly or easily compete against the Chinese or the West, but strong enough to serve a local economy.
It is noteworthy that India has trade deficits with as many as 11 of the RCEP's 15 partner economies.


The ink has barely dried on Modi's slogan linked to the nationwide Goods and Services Tax (GST): "One nation, one market." From the judiciousness of the rates involved to actual GST collections and sharing the revenues from it between states, India has to manage its own house first. Add to this the persisting crisis in the banking and financial service industry amid an industrial slowdown, and an income support scheme for farmers that has barely got off the ground amid a fiscal crunch. You get the picture: RCEP is a recipe for a risk that adds more uncertainties to an already uncertain ground.

Though one does not know what goes on inside the prime minister's mind, it can be said safely in the backdrop of the challenging measure to introduce a GST and a thoroughly controversial demonetisation of high-value currency notes, he must have felt it wise to be in agreement with the Congress party's opposition to the RCEP.

Economists like Arvind Panagariya argue that India can be base for exports to other RCEP economies if multinationals (read: Western giants) invest here to tap the new regional market in the Asia-Pacific. But we need to ask: What are the opportunity costs of this risk? We might add that there are unresolved issues linked to infrastructure. Investing in large manufacturing bases are not as easy as it might seem.

Does that mean India stays a lonesome wanderer in the global economy? Obviously not. India's subcontinental dimensions offer internal opportunities for growth. There is plenty of plumbing to do in everything from banking to macroeconomic stability, but the doors are already open for foreign investors across the board. Engaging meaningfully with Europe and the US can still do wonders for India.

As for RCEP, India must keep its doors open for possible future engagements. For this, RCEP should be viewed as a "mini-WTO" where India can negotiate the details of its entry (think visas, regional security and farm sector safeguards and exceptional import duty protection). The bargaining should be such that it gives India a fair chance of stable growth and managing a transition to better opportunities.

It is true that the RCEP is part of a desirable "Look East" approach in India's diplomacy. But looking before you leap is a key part of the game. It also pays to remember that the RCEP is essentially a move to counter the US, which has a special relationship with India on everything from technology-based industries to security aspects. There is no need to be a groupie in a hurry.


Japan, an RCEP member, can be for India a special partner, given its rich resources that complement that of India rather than compete with it. South Korean manufacturing chaebols already have a huge presence in India. Nothing stops them from helping India boost its competitiveness as an exporter if India has to find a place as an equal partner in the RCEP.

We can continue to play cricket with the Aussies and buy Ganesha idols from the Chinese. Sparring with a kangaroo and dating a dragon is fine. Deeper engagements can wait.

(The writer is a senior journalist and commentator. He tweets as @madversity)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Philip » 05 Nov 2019 19:05

Great decision to give RCEP the upturned finger. A conspiracy to turn India into a dumping ground for cheap Chin gagbage.

By the way the Delhi cop vs lawyer situ is ridiculous.Wbere are we debating it?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 05 Nov 2019 19:19

It is time to renegotiate the FTAs. We now have a $100 billion dollar deficit with these countries.

As for traditional Indian companies not being able to compete. Very few are entrepreneurs. Most are traders. As long as they make margin selling an imported product they are all fine. The only hope are the new generation entrepreneurs who want to be the next Zuckerberg.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Philip » 05 Nov 2019 22:30

What the Min. of Fin. should do is to imagine that we are a market of only a billion+ Indians and what we make at home should satisfy all of our needs.Exports are a bonus. If we like many other nationz rely upon cheap imports, we become a debtor nation with the value of the. rupee sliding still further.I remember when a $ was only 4 Rs., the Pound 8! It has lost 15+ timrs its value over 60 years and the slide accelerated in the last decade+ .

Unless we start manufacturing almost all our needs at home and eschew needless imports ( esp. from China) we will see the rupee slide even further to levels of that of banana or coconut republics.Furthermore, the rich appear to be getting richer at the dxprnse of the middle and poorer classes.Corporate wealth does not reflect the status of the genersl population the vast majority salaried and the working classes, and the beleagured rural population.
There is little equitable spread of wealth in India except in a downward direction. There is no alternative but to protect the most vital sectors of the economy employing the greatest numbrr of workets from foreign dumping .The alternative is crippling unemployment, poverty and social unrest in the future leading to anarchy and revolts breaking out across the nation.
Last edited by Philip on 05 Nov 2019 22:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 22:35

Supratik wrote:It is time to renegotiate the FTAs. We now have a $100 billion dollar deficit with these countries.

As for traditional Indian companies not being able to compete. Very few are entrepreneurs. Most are traders. As long as they make margin selling an imported product they are all fine. The only hope are the new generation entrepreneurs who want to be the next Zuckerberg.


It is the daily sale of milk that gives the average Indian farmer his daily spending cash and helps him sometimes supplement the meagre daily meals.

twitter

Australia has 5000 #dairy farmers, & 5700 farms, avg of 261 cows

New Zealand has 12000 dairy farmers & 11590 herds, avg=431 cows

India has 7.5 crore farms, avg=1-2 cows

Q-Who suffers if we open our markets to cheap imports thru #RCEP?
Ans-Our farmers

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 05 Nov 2019 23:11

Picklu wrote:We should actually get out of the FTA deal with Indonesia also. Aus and NZ are not that much of a threat due to the transport distance. East Asian countries are much bigger threat.

We need to give them a signal that they can not open their market only 50% and expect a 74% market access from us.



Picklu saar,

Aus and NZ are both a very serious threat to India.

As island nations, their export/import transportation costs are always factored in and yet they both remain very competitive price wise.

we forget the simple fact that they are globally acknowledged dairy superpowers and their dairy industry runs with super efficiency using extremely advanced dairy processing facilities. They have unfettered access to even the most highly regulated markets because of their acknowledged commitment to the highest standards and their reputation for food safety standards in dairy.

Therefore, facilitating their entry into Indian markets will simply not only decimate our own dairy industry but will also end up seriously endangering the livelihoods of hundreds of crores of farmers who depend on dairy for the daily spending money. The main income of our farmers is seasonal if at all, depending on the rain gods and praying that their heavenly bounty is just right and timely and is neither too little nor too much. Daily sales of milk gives them some much need money in hand.

This is also why there is so much of violence in the north against beef eating, illegal cattle smuggling, and cow theft and this is also why 99.99% of the lynchings take place.

If the farmers cow gets stolen, his family may not have the money to eat the next day. That's how much they depend on the milk sales to get themselves their daily roti.

and all this for what.

just so a couple of lakhs of software and other services guys can get visas to Aus and NZ.

maybe we need to start seeing things with an unjaundiced eye.

BTW, we already produce a lot more milk than we need.

and both Aus and NZ can easily sell their dairy products at prices comfortably below our production costs because both of them are able to leverage their economies of scale and their very high automation factor also gives them that advantage additionally.





twitter

Why should we open our market for imports by signing #RCEP, when a @NITIAayog recent report of Feb 2018 has shown that India’s #milk production in 2016-17, at 162.5 million tonnes (mt), exceeded the demand of 147.5 mt, with this gap projected to widen by 2032-33.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 06 Nov 2019 01:34

^India can easily put a GHG clause on Australia and ask their dairy industry to match the energy input to an Indian cow. That includes land management and water management. This will put Oz and Nz dairy industry to a disadvantage.

There are several sectors where India can bring out the hidden support given to their farmers by Oz/Nz. And it is not India's loss if they want to shutoff
their economies to Indian goods and services. It is their loss.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ramana » 06 Nov 2019 03:13

Guys don't give 'bell the cat' type options.
And Picklu it would help to do some research before giving suggestions.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ramana » 06 Nov 2019 03:17

tandav wrote:The more important question is how do we become competitive. 10 years is a massive amount of time and the world will not wait around. We have to step up our game by orders of magnitude.


Good question.

So when and which sectors need economic reforms to become competitive.

I think the dairy sector will never become competitive as farm holdings are average 1-2 cows.
Need to increase the holding to up to 25-50.
And its impact on cattle feed, veterinary services etc.

The SJM stance of just say no is not going to be helpful.
And they have powerful backers.

And what are the services industry issues with RCEP?

I know about dumping etc.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Nov 2019 04:31

Do Ozzies practice factory farming? Kiwis? I don't our farmers can stomach the cruelty involved in factory farming and hence we would not be competitive. That said, there is a worldwide movement to stop factory farming. The protests are going to be louder and louder since the environmental and health problems meat production/consumption are coming out now.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kaivalya » 06 Nov 2019 05:15

Wharton's publication, contributed by indian authors as to the next wave of successful entrepreneurs from India :


https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/three-waves-tracking-evolution-indias-startups/

Quotes :

At last count, India had 26 unicorns, with eight new entrants joining the club in 2018 alone.


A report published in 2018 notes that 111 of the most popular family-owned businesses had a total market capitalization of some $839 billion.


The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor estimates some 20% of Indians (aged between 18 and 64 years) intend to start a business in the next three years, while more than 11% are nascent entrepreneurs (against the global average of 12.6%). About 63.7% of people in India consider entrepreneurship to be a desirable career choice, against the global average of 62.4%.


Bangalore, particularly, has emerged to be the capital of GCC or Global Capability Centers, with about half of the global 1200 multinationals having set up their R&D centers in India.


Beyond the current unicorns, the next wave of 100 startups in India are much more diverse, going beyond consumer to B2B marketplaces, healthtech, enterprise-tech, robotics, fintech and many more. Some of these startups include Grey Orange Robotics, Medgenome, Blackbuck, Bankbazaar, Uniphore, etc
.

I think we have gone way beyond IT programming, y2k, visas etc. into deep innovation. It will take a little while, lots of capital, continued responsible government to continue growing more segments of the economy

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kaivalya » 06 Nov 2019 05:46

ramana wrote:
tandav wrote:The more important question is how do we become competitive. 10 years is a massive amount of time and the world will not wait around. We have to step up our game by orders of magnitude.


Good question.

So when and which sectors need economic reforms to become competitive.

I think the dairy sector will never become competitive as farm holdings are average 1-2 cows.
Need to increase the holding to up to 25-50.
And its impact on cattle feed, veterinary services etc.

The SJM stance of just say no is not going to be helpful.
And they have powerful backers.

And what are the services industry issues with RCEP?

I know about dumping etc.


Only now we have vaccinations, livestock management started...Luckily these things are happening faster than before. Along with insurance cover we don't have to lose productivity. We will suddenly have some folks consolidating in the 50-100 range...I still remember reading dharampalji's work and hyperventilating...

https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/modi-to-inaugurate-livestock-vaccination-scheme-on-september-11-from-mathura/articleshow/70976934.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kaivalya » 06 Nov 2019 06:42

Ramanaji,

To your question about services :

Please see earlier reference on the 7 segment's of services ( not just IT ) all of which have an upside for India regarding RCEP. The paper has more projections Here is NSji from 2017 saying that countries have yet to make progress on Mode 4 Services

https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/trade-calculations-india-offers-to-parley-on-rcep-tariff-terms/articleshow/58814035.cms

I don't know why the thai premier (forget media ) kept saying there were last minute demands by india... maybe just negotiating/pressure tactics. From what I can see they have been long standing demands.The link is from May, 2017...

Mode 1 is cross-border supply between countries.
Mode 2 refers to consumption abroad.
Mode 3 means commercial presence, which includes joint ventures between foreign service providers and domestic businesses.
Mode 4 is for movement of people.

Mode 4 services is of key interest to India.


The key point to note is the gdp contribution of services in their countries..so what is yours is mine; what is mine is mine :rotfl:

Services contribute more than 50% to the national GDP in all RCEP countries.


https://m.economictimes.com/news/econom ... 668360.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Cain Marko » 06 Nov 2019 12:12

Vayutuvan wrote:Do Ozzies practice factory farming? Kiwis? I don't our farmers can stomach the cruelty involved in factory farming and hence we would not be competitive. That said, there is a worldwide movement to stop factory farming. The protests are going to be louder and louder since the environmental and health problems meat production/consumption are coming out now.


Add to this the environmental concerns of running massive dairy farms that require insane resource inputs including water and feed (corn/soy etc.) Ethically and environmentally this is a no go. India should sponsor/champion vegan/vegetarian movements globally as a means to alleviate climate change. This is CRUCIAL. The debilitating effect it would have on Anzac dairy production/exports is a side effect.

Image

The idea that India should try to be more competitive vis a vis ANZAC on dairy production using factory farms is a non starter - not only will it ruin small farmers, this would take away an extremely potent baton with which to make the developed world see their role in the climate debacle that they have largely contributed to and are now fussing about!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 06 Nov 2019 13:11

When we "export" basmati rice, we actually export our scarce resources of freshwater.

It takes about 800 kgs of water to produce a kg of rice.

So, annually we are, in reality, exporting hundreds of millions of tonnes of our already scarce freshwater.

This is the cost that is hidden because farmers in punjab and haryana get free power to run tube wells 24X7 to extract free groundwater to grow rice in quantities far in excess of our own needs, purchased by the govt at MSP and a lot of it left to rot in FCI warehouses.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 06 Nov 2019 13:40

chetak wrote:When we "export" basmati rice, we actually export our scarce resources of freshwater.

It takes about 800 kgs of water to produce a kg of rice.

So, annually we are, in reality, exporting hundreds of millions of tonnes of our already scarce freshwater.

This is the cost that is hidden because farmers in punjab and haryana get free power to run tube wells 24X7 to extract free groundwater to grow rice in quantities far in excess of our own needs, purchased by the govt at MSP and a lot of it left to rot in FCI warehouses.


And every so often an unsuspecting child falls down an abandoned tubewell bore :(

I can even tolerate basmati export since it is somewhat of premium product; but sugarcane production just doesn't cut it - sugarcane/sugar is a low value commodity which is better produced by countries which have much more land and water resources to throw at it.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Aditya_V » 06 Nov 2019 15:02

yensoy wrote:
chetak wrote:When we "export" basmati rice, we actually export our scarce resources of freshwater.

It takes about 800 kgs of water to produce a kg of rice.

So, annually we are, in reality, exporting hundreds of millions of tonnes of our already scarce freshwater.

This is the cost that is hidden because farmers in punjab and haryana get free power to run tube wells 24X7 to extract free groundwater to grow rice in quantities far in excess of our own needs, purchased by the govt at MSP and a lot of it left to rot in FCI warehouses.


And every so often an unsuspecting child falls down an abandoned tubewell bore :(

I can even tolerate basmati export since it is somewhat of premium product; but sugarcane production just doesn't cut it - sugarcane/sugar is a low value commodity which is better produced by countries which have much more land and water resources to throw at it.


The Value of Sugarcane is the Liquor business and Politicans associated with it thrive on it, White Sugar taken out early through Centrifuges is actually the by product and the Molasses is where the big and somewhat illegal money rests. There is a whole mafia around the liquor business which benefits from at the cost of Indian health.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/liquor/indian-liquor-industry-moves-towards-spirits-made-from-authentic-source-materials/articleshow/18997040.cms?from=mdr

This is counter to the way the oddly named Indian Made Foreign Liquor (IMFL) category was conceived in the past. These were made by flavouring and colouring extra neutral alcohol that was derived from molasses, cheaply available as a by-product of sugar manufacture. Nearly all Indian versions of whisky, brandy, gin, vodka were originally made from molasses.


This Liquor related Sugarcane cultivation is the main reason for the Cauvery crises as Both Karnataka and TN both grow lots more sugarcane which 100 years ago was mainly grown for Jaggery in cooking. Similarly in Maharashtra this has been main reason for farmer distress. And by you know the Sugar MIlls and related Coop Banks are run by Mafia Politicians. It is a viscous cycle.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 06 Nov 2019 19:44

Farm consolidation is going to happen through evolution. Remember in advanced countries a tiny fraction of the population does farming and related activities as the rest of the population has moved to more productive occupations. As India moves from developing to developed economy this is going to happen in India as well. Marginal farming and related activities are not remunerative. It is subsistence level economy. Owning a few bighas of land or a few cows or a few goats, etc are not going to survive inflation. As a result more and more people will quit farming and related activities. A couple of decade back more than 50% of the population was doing agriculture and related activities. Latest data for 2017 suggests the number is now down to 44%. Each year 1.5% of the population i.e. more than 15 million people are quitting this sector. But you need to provide them with more remunerative occupations as an alternative. This is where manufacturing and low end services comes in coupled with some education. China with all its manufacturing might and decades of stupendous growth still has 27% of population doing agriculture. It is not an easy task, neither it is impossible. Many countries have or are making the transition. At this time we are not going to be able to compete with Aus, NZ. As people quit this sector farm consolidation is going to happen. Companies are going to or have already entered this segment. Eventually in a few decades we can have Aus, NZ type farming and related activity. So we have to be patient and do the good work to continuously expand our economy.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 07 Nov 2019 20:15

The three waves of the Indian start-up scene.

https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/art ... -startups/

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Nov 2019 03:43

Markit Services PMI OCT 49.2

Better than last month (48.7), but still in contraction territory.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mort Walker » 08 Nov 2019 08:17

Moody's Lowers India's Outlook to NEGATIVE
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/moo ... 15954.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 08 Nov 2019 17:09

Aditya_V wrote:...
This Liquor related Sugarcane cultivation is the main reason for the Cauvery crises as Both Karnataka and TN both grow lots more sugarcane which 100 years ago was mainly grown for Jaggery in cooking. Similarly in Maharashtra this has been main reason for farmer distress. And by you know the Sugar MIlls and related Coop Banks are run by Mafia Politicians. It is a viscous cycle.


Very astute observation regarding molasses. I did notice your "deliberate" typo? "viscous cycle" :rotfl: I have also stated before in this forum about the tensions between Ka and TN due to the new crop of sugarcane farmers in Mandya area. For the record Cauvery delta region around Tanjore has been a breadbasket for 1000s of years, so it is the upstream usage which is the new factor here - not saying that Ka farmers don't have a claim but it has to be worked out amicably and sensibly, especially when water is diverted for a commodity crop like sugarcane.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 08 Nov 2019 18:53

Aditya_V wrote:This Liquor related Sugarcane cultivation is the main reason for the Cauvery crises as Both Karnataka and TN both grow lots more sugarcane which 100 years ago was mainly grown for Jaggery in cooking. Similarly in Maharashtra this has been main reason for farmer distress. And by you know the Sugar MIlls and related Coop Banks are run by Mafia Politicians. It is a viscous cycle.


Just one of the mindless policies we are running from govt level. Another is flower farming. Roses need excessive water for example. Like 15 times more than what some grain crops would need. But it gives good money as export to Europe during winter time especially Chrisms. Many hybrid varieties are being cultivated mindlessly without thinking their suitability to local conditions. I read once that the type of rice cultivated in KA these days need more water than the varieties used in Punjab Haryana..!! Some "smart" farmers started taking crops like roses, strawberries in one of the rather dry areas of north MH. Some can build green houses and pump out a lot of ground water and earn good mullah like this, rest all suffer.

The less said about the politicos hold on co-operative institutions like Sugar factories and banks the better.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Aditya_V » 08 Nov 2019 21:24

Another evil is ths shrimp farming, they dig a pit for an acre or so, it makes the soil Saline and unfit for farming around, Nellore District is AP is taking it up big time away from Rice.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 10 Nov 2019 19:49

S Gurumurthy
@sgurumurthy

Nov 8
If any single event turned the Indian Economy it was the historic DM decision on 8.10.2019. It was as courageous a decision as the 1998 pokharan atom blast. The DM decision was financial pokharan blast. Unbiased history will record how this single measure made turned the economy

S Gurumurthy
@sgurumurthy
·
Nov 8
The implementation of GST would have been a non starter without DM. With High Denomination Notes dominating trade, the GST in Cashland would have destroyed the economy. Most commentators failed to understand how DM cleaned the ground for GST
S Gurumurthy
@sgurumurthy
·
Nov 8
The informal economy which accounted for 50% of total economy could never have been brought into formalisation largely without DM. It had had 3 major and positive impacts unthinkable otherwise.

S Gurumurthy
@sgurumurthy
·
Nov 8
The first is the rise in the no of tax payers. The direct tax returns rose from 40m in 14/15 to 67m in 17/18, by 25% And tax collections from 7lac cr to 10lac cr net. New returns filed rose to more than 1cr. By 25%. Corporate returns by 17%. In 2018-19 it it rose by 11m again

S Gurumurthy
@sgurumurthy
·
Nov 8
Had notes in Circulation grown how they were growing before DM the notes in Circulation now would have been 25 lac cr. It is now only 22.4lac cr. There has been huge increase in digital Economy. DM changed the psychology of the nation
S Gurumurthy
@sgurumurthy
·
Nov 8
It was not without pain. But nothing big happens without pain. There were two errors in scheduling DM. The Mudra should have been implemented before DM, and the tax immunity schedule which preceded DM should have coincided with it. This would have reduced the pain.


S Gurumurthy
@sgurumurthy
DM prevented the collapse of the Economy which was sitting on asset inflation of stocks, gold and Real estate by over 30% per annum in six years to 2010, unable to shed it even now, particularly in real estate & housing. Stocks are over valued even now, artificially by FII inflow

S Gurumurthy
@sgurumurthy
·
Nov 8
The pain of the pleasure of asset inflation led growth of 2000-2011 found in the NPAs that was the outcome of the needless & unabsorbable inflow of over 170 billion dollars to 2008, which YV Reddy wanted stopped, but PC and Dr Singh wanted him not to stop

S Gurumurthy
@sgurumurthy
·
Nov 8
The unwanted money flowed into the banking system and became unlendable, forcing the govt to zero rate tariffs to allow cap goods imports that turned into CAD on the one hand and into NPA on the other. See my article on A decade of Economic destruction.

Kaivalya
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kaivalya » 11 Nov 2019 04:20

Endorsement of Indian government action by Forbes - thought it was a funny but scary title : Modi will not let China turn India into another Pakistan :eek:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... ae64b6ebfc


A few of the countries in the south east Asian region also have been turned into pakistan in a short time.

Rishi_Tri
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rishi_Tri » 11 Nov 2019 08:15

Kaivalya wrote:Endorsement of Indian government action by Forbes - thought it was a funny but scary title : Modi will not let China turn India into another Pakistan :eek:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... ae64b6ebfc


A few of the countries in the south east Asian region also have been turned into pakistan in a short time.


This article would have been true three years ago. India is already Mini Pakistan. Look at some numbers for Year 2018-19 (from Commerce Deptt):

India Export to China - $ 16.8 BN. India Import from China - $ 70.3 BN > Deficit $53.5 BN
India Export to ASEAN - $ 37.5 BN. India Import from ASEAN - $ 59.3 BN > Deficit $21.8 BN

Given that the deficit above totals to $75.3 BN is it any surprise that there is job crisis in India. India is employing Chinese and ASEANians at cost of Indian labor.

Industry after Industry has been destroyed - Household Goods, White Goods, Solar Power, Mobile Phones, Electronics. Industries that employ millions. Does anyone remember the likes of Micromax, Lava? Literally every white good sold is White Labeled Chinese Product. Every mall, furniture shop, is over-run with Chinese and ASEAN products.

Now, as the election results show (despite 370)- turkey is coming home to roost. Not signing RCEP is least that should have been done. What is needed is 200% duty on all non electronics items and 100% duty on all electronics items - tomorrow - if there is to be hope of growth and job creation. Else worse election results are in store. 303 bump was because of Balakot.

Anyway, I have been whining about this for last three years, so pardon me. Just that the solutions are in plain sight and pains me a lot. PM Modi (am a huge supporter) risks going down in history as being worst for Indian Economy in his enthusiasm for Global Trade and what not. Once again pardon me.

CalvinH
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Posts: 608
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby CalvinH » 11 Nov 2019 12:18

yensoy wrote:
chetak wrote:When we "export" basmati rice, we actually export our scarce resources of freshwater.

I can even tolerate basmati export since it is somewhat of premium product; but sugarcane production just doesn't cut it - sugarcane/sugar is a low value commodity which is better produced by countries which have much more land and water resources to throw at it.


Sugarcane is a preferred crop for Farmers with access to water. There are multiple reasons why farmers prefer it. Their is a MSP for Sugarcane and though the payments may be delayed farmers eventually get it. Crop is safe from many pests and once grown it can withstand weather related issues. A hailstorm in late harvest season can destroy a standing wheat or rice crop but it has no impact on Sugarcane. Produces good amount of fodder for the livestock too.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20231
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 11 Nov 2019 12:33

CalvinH wrote:
yensoy wrote:


Sugarcane is a preferred crop for Farmers with access to water. There are multiple reasons why farmers prefer it. Their is a MSP for Sugarcane and though the payments may be delayed farmers eventually get it. Crop is safe from many pests and once grown it can withstand weather related issues. A hailstorm in late harvest season can destroy a standing wheat or rice crop but it has no impact on Sugarcane. Produces good amount of fodder for the livestock too.


Was talking about punjab.

Nikhil T
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Nikhil T » 11 Nov 2019 20:06

Rishi_Tri wrote:
Kaivalya wrote:Endorsement of Indian government action by Forbes - thought it was a funny but scary title : Modi will not let China turn India into another Pakistan :eek:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourd ... ae64b6ebfc


A few of the countries in the south east Asian region also have been turned into pakistan in a short time.


This article would have been true three years ago. India is already Mini Pakistan. Look at some numbers for Year 2018-19 (from Commerce Deptt):

India Export to China - $ 16.8 BN. India Import from China - $ 70.3 BN > Deficit $53.5 BN
India Export to ASEAN - $ 37.5 BN. India Import from ASEAN - $ 59.3 BN > Deficit $21.8 BN

Given that the deficit above totals to $75.3 BN is it any surprise that there is job crisis in India. India is employing Chinese and ASEANians at cost of Indian labor.

Industry after Industry has been destroyed - Household Goods, White Goods, Solar Power, Mobile Phones, Electronics. Industries that employ millions. Does anyone remember the likes of Micromax, Lava? Literally every white good sold is White Labeled Chinese Product. Every mall, furniture shop, is over-run with Chinese and ASEAN products.

Now, as the election results show (despite 370)- turkey is coming home to roost. Not signing RCEP is least that should have been done. What is needed is 200% duty on all non electronics items and 100% duty on all electronics items - tomorrow - if there is to be hope of growth and job creation. Else worse election results are in store. 303 bump was because of Balakot.

Anyway, I have been whining about this for last three years, so pardon me. Just that the solutions are in plain sight and pains me a lot. PM Modi (am a huge supporter) risks going down in history as being worst for Indian Economy in his enthusiasm for Global Trade and what not. Once again pardon me.


+1. The bad news is piling on:

Industrial output contracts for the second month in row :-? :-?

September IIP contracted by 4.3%, at a much sharper pace, as against -1.1% in August
A slowdown was witnessed in manufacturing sector, which contracted by 3.9% in September as compared to 4.8% growth a year ago


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