Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Nikhil T
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Nikhil T » 22 Feb 2020 23:51

Schmidt wrote:The gold estimate in UP seems to be a wild exaggeration. I got a copy of a press release by GSI ( which did not do this particular survey ) that says that the gold ore is estimated to be approx 55000 tonnes and the yield was around 3 grams per tonne , so the amount that could be extracted was around 160 kg


Sigh. The District Mining Officer should be fired for shooting his mouth.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby sudarshan » 23 Feb 2020 00:51

X-post from 2020 politics thread.

chetak wrote:
Dr. N Bhandary @nbhandary007 · 39m

Don't believe in rumors. This is official clarification from Geological Survey of India. #GoldMine #Sonebhadra



Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby sudarshan » 23 Feb 2020 01:30

^ I think somebody shot h** mouth off. The tip-off for me was when they claimed a deposit size three times greater than the current largest gold mine in the world.

Suraj san, saw your reply, but in this case, I think it was really a damp squib :).

The one hopeful sign still is that the GSI survey was stated to be performed in the last millennium (1999 or so), so maybe there's a chance of updating the estimated deposit size (I don't think it would be 20,000 times the original estimate, though - 160 kg vs 3350 tons).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 23 Feb 2020 04:46

Personally I think both the original news and latest update are premature. I'm no geologist, but I don't know how such estimates can be made accurately of a greenfield mine with no historical record of the density of ore. I'm going to guess the real answer is more than 160kg but less than 3400 tons, but the entities involved don't have the technological means to do better, and that for now they'd rather make the firestorm of press go away with a 'nothing to see here' press release.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 23 Feb 2020 12:10

It's a relief that farmlands won't be dug up and laced with cyanide or other hazardous chemical wastes from the extraction of a few grams of gold. Fact is that the farmlands of UP already produce gold in the form of foodgrains.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 24 Feb 2020 00:01

I've been keenly watching the DFCs. They have potential to be economic game changers due to the sheer volume of traffic they are capable of, in addition to significantly reducing congestion affecting passenger trains. Freight trains now average 25 km/hr, which will increase to 70-75km/hr on the DFC. With new signalling technology supporting much faster block clearance due to faster trains, this means a 5-6x increase in freight throughput on these trunk lines. The early estimate of economic impact:
Ease of doing business! Indian Railways freight rates may come down by 50% with dedicated freight corridors
The Indian Railways freight charges may get slashed by up to 50 per cent with the completion of the two dedicated freight corridors by December 2021. The government is working on a 3300 km long network of two dedicated freight corridors in the country which will be exclusively used to ply goods trains. The Rs 81,000 crore projects will not only reduce the time taken to transport goods drastically but also de-stress the existing tracks of the Indian Railways choked by increasing passenger and freight traffic.

The trains will run at a speed of 100 km per hour with the help of an automated signal system which will take the freight charges 50 per cent less than what is being charged by the Indian Railways, Managing Director of Dedicated Freight Corridor Corporation of India Limited (DFCCIL) Anurag Sachan was quoted as saying by PTI. He also informed that 120 trains per day from one side will run once the dedicated corridors become operational in December 2021.

Dec 2021 is just the date of full opening. vsunder on the Railway thread is the domain expert, but I'm under the impression that sections are already in the process of being opened.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vimal » 24 Feb 2020 02:56

^^ I wasn't aware of DFC project till i saw the post by Suraj. This does seem like the type of massive infrastructure investment that India needs to get to $5T. Should be posted in the achievements thread.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby DrRatnadip » 24 Feb 2020 11:07

rsingh wrote:I do not know where to put it. I am planning a maternity clinic in my ancestral village. Village is quite big and births are handled old way. I wonder if some brite has experience in this field. What will be cost for 4 bed maternity ward ? I have the land and will donate the functional ward to gram panchyat.

Nice thought.. 4 beds wont cost much.. approx 8 k for one decent semifowler bed.. labour room will require table (around 35 k) light (15k) boyles (35 k) . monitor (20 k) .. total cost should be less than 2 L excluding construction/ electricity and plumbing..

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 24 Feb 2020 13:05

I came in to post this link
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/indias-electricity-demand-registers-surge-of-75-per-cent-over-the-first-18-days-of-february

In a major uptick for the power sector, the electricity demand in the nation has registered a growth of 7.5 per cent over the first 18 days of February, bringing big relief to stressed thermal power electricity generators which are now operating at higher capacities, reports Economic Times.

The generation of power from thermal and hydro projects has surged in the ongoing month by 7.3 per cent, while the same figure for renewable energy generators has surged by 5.3 per cent.


vimal wrote:^^ I wasn't aware of DFC project till i saw the post by Suraj. This does seem like the type of massive infrastructure investment that India needs to get to $5T. Should be posted in the achievements thread.


Indian so-called mainstream media rags will not cover the news which actually matters. Since the topic of infrastructure came up, here are two links that are a must-read:

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/worlds-second-largest-operation-control-centre-in-prayagraj-for-eastern-freight-corridor-heres-all-you-need-to-know

The SDRE operation control center really looks TFTA.

Image

And this one:

https://swarajyamag.com/infrastructure/how-the-1320-km-long-delhi-mumbai-expressway-nda-governments-flagship-road-project-is-taking-shape

Image

Couple the above with the HSR from Mumbai-Ahmedabad.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mort Walker » 25 Feb 2020 00:58

The 1250KM expressway should have been designed to cover the distance in 14-15 hours instead of 17-18. Average between 85-90 KM/hr. I don’t think it’s too much to ask.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 29 Feb 2020 02:50

India stands to gain most from supply-chain disruptions, FDI pipeline doubles to $175 billion: UBS
India is expected to be a big beneficiary of the ongoing trade battle between US and China. Evidence of this trend is already visible from foreign direct investment (FDI) pipeline doubling to $175 billion from last year’s $87 billion. Given the rise in protectionism and tariff barriers, corporations are looking at shifting supply chains . UBS, the world’s largest wealth manager, in its US CFO survey found that 76% of the respondents have either shifted their supply chain or are planning to shift in response to protectionist policies such as trade tariffs and India continues to be among the top destinations in Asia for manufacturing shift.

While FDI in India has increased in the last one year, there has been interest from global companies to set up manufacturing facilities for not only electronics but also heavy manufacturing as well. India’s current FDI pipeline has doubled and key focus sectors include construction, electronics, infrastructure, textiles, food processing, pharma among others. Even while analyzing the earnings transcripts of 44 global companies there has been increased references to ‘India’ and ‘trade war’ and spot nuances in language signify a potential relocation of manufacturing to India.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A Nandy » 01 Mar 2020 10:55

India starts hunt for alternatives to China to source over 1k items

From textiles fabrics, refrigerators and suitcases to antibiotics such as amoxicillin, erythromycin & metronidazole, vitamins and insecticides, the government has begun a hunt for 1,050 items from across the world as supplies from China, which accounts for over 50% of India’s imports, are hit due to coronavirus. Also on the list are automatic data processing machines, diodes and semiconductor devices, auto parts and several steel & aluminium items and mobile phones.


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 421762.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Krita » 01 Mar 2020 11:28

tandav wrote:


Telling that we do not have any manufacturers in India itself... failure of Make in India

In automobiles, a major portion of tools for sheet metal die and injection molding, infotainment systems, engine parts, automotive grade HSS steel and even control cables ( a very low tech product) are imported from China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan. In next couple of months, the production of many manufacturers will be affected due to parts shortage(inventory of max 30-45 days is maintained).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vinod » 01 Mar 2020 16:07

A Nandy wrote:
India starts hunt for alternatives to China to source over 1k items

From textiles fabrics, refrigerators and suitcases to antibiotics such as amoxicillin, erythromycin & metronidazole, vitamins and insecticides, the government has begun a hunt for 1,050 items from across the world as supplies from China, which accounts for over 50% of India’s imports, are hit due to coronavirus. Also on the list are automatic data processing machines, diodes and semiconductor devices, auto parts and several steel & aluminium items and mobile phones.


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 421762.cms


This is meaningless! Corona virus is spreading into every country and at the end of this phase, China will still be supplying the world more than any other nation. What we need to do is, use this opportunity to develop our capabilities and supply the world.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 01 Mar 2020 21:57

Mod Note: a collection of Nukkad posts have been deleted . Please do not repost them .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby UlanBatori » 01 Mar 2020 23:04

yensoy wrote:It's a relief that farmlands won't be dug up and laced with cyanide or other hazardous chemical wastes from the extraction of a few grams of gold. Fact is that the farmlands of UP already produce gold in the form of foodgrains.

+400%
I wonder: if the land itself (unless there is a mine on it or nearby) is worth about 7lac per cent (suburban Malloostan) which works out to about $970,000 per acre, and it yields 1kg of gold after digging up and messing it up, then what is the profit? Today gold is $51000 per kg.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 01 Mar 2020 23:38

UlanBatori wrote:I wonder: if the land itself (unless there is a mine on it or nearby) is worth about 7lac per cent (suburban Malloostan) which works out to about $970,000 per acre, and it yields 1kg of gold after digging up and messing it up, then what is the profit? Today gold is $51000 per kg.


Worse is that the profits accrue to some PSU whereas the environmental costs are borne by the locals. There is zip, zilch, no benefit at all to the locals in most of these mines, oil wells or resource extraction operations - not even any decent jobs. I have seen this first hand - a PSU which was polluting the area took no responsibility and said that affected locals could request their CSR officers to kindly help mitigate the problem.

I am not anti-mining - but I would like to see two changes (i) a better profit sharing model so that locals (at the village/township level, district level and state level) benefit (to varying degrees) so we have their buy-in, and (ii) a full analysis of the environmental costs of the project and upfront remediation efforts worked out into the cost/benefit calculation, and implementation in practice. Point (ii) will mean that some of these iffy projects don't see the light of day because their clean up costs are too high and not worth the trouble.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 02 Mar 2020 01:20

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/govt-planning-to-launch-lottery-offer-under-the-gst-from-1-april-11583064993731.html

Looks like Smt. Nirmala'jis ministry is monitoring this pages and copying ideas from here. Total lift and drop. I think BRF should open a whine thread where its ideas are copied by the GOI.

For example, somebody posted that India should follow a lottery system for tax receipts. And ergo, on April 1 GOI is planning to launch lottery offer under the GST.

A member in the CBIC had last month said that the lottery offers would range between ₹10 lakh and ₹1 crore


Wow!

A member in the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) had last month said that the lottery offers would range between Rs 10 lakh and Rs 1 crore.

....

The official said consumers will have to scan and upload any B2C invoice using a mobile app, which is being developed by GST Network (GSTN), which handles the technology backbone of GST.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 02 Mar 2020 01:22

This is serious whine for me. It is only since last 4 months that India's GST collection is over Rs. 1 lac crore every month.

https://www.livemint.com/news/india/gst-collection-crosses-rs-1-lakh-cr-mark-for-fourth-consecutive-month-in-feb-11583072251770.html

he government has collected ₹1.05 lakh crore as GST revenue in February, up 8% over the same month last year. This is the fourth consecutive month when the government mopped up GST collection above ₹1 lakh crore mark.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 02 Mar 2020 10:51

The main issues with GST is the refund. Some way has to be found so that there is no locking of funds with GoI.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 02 Mar 2020 17:31

Increase in orders & production by upto 20-30% in small scale industries of Nashik becoz of decrease in supply from china(corona virus).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kit » 02 Mar 2020 19:16

I have a question for those who know., the issue with pharmaceutical raw materials and intermediaries for drug production, how come almost 80 percent is imported from china., is it not commercially viable in India ? How did this happen ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Bart S » 02 Mar 2020 19:37

kit wrote:I have a question for those who know., the issue with pharmaceutical raw materials and intermediaries for drug production, how come almost 80 percent is imported from china., is it not commercially viable in India ? How did this happen ?


Same issues as with other industries:
Over regulation (almost inseparable from corruption)
Inability to scale up to large scale (required for competing with Chinese) due to regulatory bias towards SMEs
Lack of labor reform
Under-invoicing and dumping by Chinese (with Indian collaborators and corrupt bureaucrats hand in glove) that makes imports cheaper

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 02 Mar 2020 20:47

The last mentioned reasons - underinvoicing and dumping - have a significant role to play here . Within current regulatory and domestic only business perspective it’s not as difficult to run a business . The government has used the ease of doing business rating as a metric for its efforts to improve parameters . However the dumping from China broke the back of MSME to such an extent that it hasn’t really made much of a dent . Too many businessmen don’t want to be make the effort - a flight to Shenzhen is far easier . Well now travel is out of the question . This is a great moment for the government to increase tariff and non tariff barriers and to give incentives to domestic industry .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 02 Mar 2020 22:26

Pharmaceutical ingredients are also heavily polluting. China produces 95% of the world's ascorbic acid (Vitamin C), and back in 2017 there was a tripling of prices because of Chinese regulation against coal burning.
https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/10836-vitamin-c-prices-triple-in-a-year-s-time

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby a_bharat » 03 Mar 2020 04:22

disha wrote:https://www.livemint.com/news/india/govt-planning-to-launch-lottery-offer-under-the-gst-from-1-april-11583064993731.html

Looks like Smt. Nirmala'jis ministry is monitoring this pages and copying ideas from here. Total lift and drop. I think BRF should open a whine thread where its ideas are copied by the GOI.

For example, somebody posted that India should follow a lottery system for tax receipts. And ergo, on April 1 GOI is planning to launch lottery offer under the GST.

A member in the CBIC had last month said that the lottery offers would range between ₹10 lakh and ₹1 crore


Wow!

A member in the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) had last month said that the lottery offers would range between Rs 10 lakh and Rs 1 crore.

....

The official said consumers will have to scan and upload any B2C invoice using a mobile app, which is being developed by GST Network (GSTN), which handles the technology backbone of GST.


I guess it is this one I posted a few weeks back: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=7613&p=2412407#p2412407 . My source was twitter, they too probably got it from there.

Instead of large sums like 1 cr as prize money, smaller amounts in the range of Rs. 1000 to 10000 to much larger number of people will be more useful.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 03 Mar 2020 12:08

Either way, if the news report is true, it shows that the ministry is aware and not shy of cloning a well-proven process.

a_bharat wrote:Instead of large sums like 1 cr as prize money, smaller amounts in the range of Rs. 1000 to 10000 to much larger number of people will be more useful.


The large sum is to attract attention. Imagine winning Rs. 10 lakhs or Rs. 1 crore on your GST receipts? People will be demanding GST receipts and at the month-end will be glued to the television on who won the lottery.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Uttam » 03 Mar 2020 20:59

BREAKING NEWS:

U.S. Federal Reserve Cuts Interest Rates By Half Percentage Point
Central bank lowers Fed-funds rate range to 1% to 1.25%


Australia: The RBA lowered its benchmark cash rate by 25 basis points to a new record low of 0.50%, with central bank Governor Philip Lowe signaling further action was likely.

Malaysia's c.bank cuts key rate to 2.50%
Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) cut its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points


*****

What is RBI waiting for? I know inflation is a bit higher than their acceptable band. Waiting for too long before cutting rates will prolong the pain. They should cut NOW.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vips » 04 Mar 2020 04:32

India's electricity supply rises 7.1 per cent in February.

India's electricity supply rose 7.1 per cent during February, provisional government data showed, marking the second straight month of growth after five straight months of decline.

Power supply rose to an average of 3.62 billion units per day in February, up from 3.38 billion units last year, an analysis of daily load despatch data from state-run Power System Operation Corp Ltd (POSOCO) showed.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Avtar Singh » 04 Mar 2020 14:28

Markit Services PMI FEB Actual 57.5 Previous 55.5 Consensus 52.9 Forecast 52.5

https://tradingeconomics.com/

whilst the rest of the world heads into debt mongering/money printing armageddon

why would GOI give anyone access to Indian economy, see trash talking UK

countries need to start not just talking the talk but walking the walk......
that is the Hindu talk and walk... PM Modi walk and talk

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby tandav » 05 Mar 2020 15:12

Avtar Singh wrote:Markit Services PMI FEB Actual 57.5 Previous 55.5 Consensus 52.9 Forecast 52.5

https://tradingeconomics.com/

whilst the rest of the world heads into debt mongering/money printing armageddon

why would GOI give anyone access to Indian economy, see trash talking UK

countries need to start not just talking the talk but walking the walk......
that is the Hindu talk and walk... PM Modi walk and talk


India Debt to GDP ratio is higher than China. We have to somehow get our population more productive. The only thing I can think of is to make more infrastructure and hope the productivity increase is outpaces than the debt that we take up to make that asset

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby tandav » 05 Mar 2020 16:57

https://in.reuters.com/article/us-china ... NKCN1QV0V1

China has piloted this in Shanghai has a property tax of 1.2% of building value or 12% of annual rental income. This may be expanded/adopted by other cities. WE need to free our cities from the heavy hand of the State Government and give them freedom to run their own cities.

https://teleport.org/cities/shanghai/taxes/

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JTull » 05 Mar 2020 17:29

tandav wrote:https://in.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-property/chinas-property-tax-will-be-city-based-with-minimum-tax-free-threshold-senior-lawmaker-idINKCN1QV0V1

China has piloted this in Shanghai has a property tax of 1.2% of building value or 12% of annual rental income. This may be expanded/adopted by other cities. WE need to free our cities from the heavy hand of the State Government and give them freedom to run their own cities.

https://teleport.org/cities/shanghai/taxes/


Trend in India is to centralise tax rules, collection and administration primarily because of local bureaucracy and corruption being a hindrance to development and governance agenda. Digitisation is core to this effort where local govts just don't have the motivation and capital to make required investments. Every single reform to solve systemic issues is centrally driven. Further evidence can be seen when change in state govts has resulted in slowing down (or even rollback) of execution.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kvraghav » 05 Mar 2020 18:13

tandav wrote:https://in.reuters.com/article/us-china-parliament-property/chinas-property-tax-will-be-city-based-with-minimum-tax-free-threshold-senior-lawmaker-idINKCN1QV0V1

China has piloted this in Shanghai has a property tax of 1.2% of building value or 12% of annual rental income. This may be expanded/adopted by other cities. WE need to free our cities from the heavy hand of the State Government and give them freedom to run their own cities.

https://teleport.org/cities/shanghai/taxes/


This will work out in China but in places like India, the local govt of large cities will simply eat into the resources without much benefit. The corporations are the most corrupt. We will also have issues of populism over revenue.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kit » 05 Mar 2020 21:09

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indias-476-billion-firepower-may-arrest-rupees-panic-drop/articleshow/74490825.cms

The currency is the worst performer in Asia this month

Wonder if Soros has a role here... he was the one responsible for stock market crash in SE Asia

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 05 Mar 2020 22:14

It's just the sudden spike in reported COVID-19 cases in India. Have you seen just how crazy the stock markets are ? Down 2% one day, up 4% the next and then down 3% again, and that's the supposedly stable US markets.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Avtar Singh » 06 Mar 2020 02:47

India is at a completely different point in the economic cycle compared to all the global economies.
They are all massive economies with massive debt and their is no way out but great pain.

India has so much slack to pick up its debt whatever it is at this point means nothing....
its GDP is going to be huge... Buy the INR, westerners laugh at me when I saw this,
if India plays its cards right it will be the future "Mighty Mark" whilst all the other currencies
are worth less than toilet paper.

Which other country has a positive interest rate and is still growing...
https://tradingeconomics.com/india/interest-rate

I here stupid westerners, Max Keiser comes to mind and other RT talking heads saying
Indian economy is failed.. What morons.

Gundlach is on cnbc saying powell will never got to negative interest rates because he understands
it would be a disaster for the world economy... I bet he does, there is no way out.
Pain no matter what they do.........
I could have told them decades ago that they would be "turning japanese"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWWwM2wwMww

in 2008? just minutes after us rates were slashed to nothing talking heads on cnbc
were saying RATES WILL BE UP IN 6 MONTHS..........................
12 years later we have fake american capitalists, dare I say communists

as long as Indians do what they do best education and work hard avoinding easy way out
of easy money..........
Indian economy and INR will be king of the world

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Avtar Singh » 06 Mar 2020 02:54

^^^^^
Gundlach (a sensible and intelligent man) is also very bullish on the Indian economy..
But I am well ahead of him since I thought so in the 1970s, but did not appreciate the context
in which this would happen

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prem » 06 Mar 2020 03:01

kit wrote:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/indias-476-billion-firepower-may-arrest-rupees-panic-drop/articleshow/74490825.cms

The currency is the worst performer in Asia this month

Wonder if Soros has a role here... he was the one responsible for stock market crash in SE Asia


Indian Currency was appreciating but something happened after DAVOS and we lost 3% of INR value. OTOH , FE reserves are going high every week, not to mention we bought lot of China bound crude at discounted price .

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 06 Mar 2020 04:33

Please stop with the Soros CTs. Davos was over in mid January. The guy is 90 and probably busy worrying about not dropping dead from Covid-19 since he's in a high risk group. The INR depreciation occured within the past 1.5 weeks, same time as coronavirus cases significantly increased in India (driven by imported cases, not domestic gestation). The markets are generally freaking out everywhere, with all indices down 10-12% from their recent record highs. With now $477 billion in forex reserves (up from $400 billion a year ago), RBI isn't really worrying about anything. The panic is largely about trying to price in how much the demand and supply sides of the economy are impacted by quarantine efforts.


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