Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Yagnasri
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Yagnasri »

So we are increasing taxes at the same time when petrol prices are likely to go up in a big way. Politically very hard to defend.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Ambar »

Yagnasri wrote:So we are increasing taxes at the same time when petrol prices are likely to go up in a big way. Politically very hard to defend.
You cannot say such things here saar, the RBI and our beloved Tai can never do anything wrong. Transportation, daily commodities, services is up anywhere between 25% to 50% but we have to accept the 6% figure by govt statisticians ! Maybe they are still calculating the price of gramaphone records and fountain pens the way they were doing until early 2000s.

In other news..
Oil Shock Risks Becoming ‘Nightmare’ for India’s Central Bank
Anup Roy and Vrishti Beniwal


(Bloomberg) -- The Ukraine war’s impact on global supply chains could force India’s central bank to raise its inflation forecast, but may leave little scope for it to tighten monetary policy amid a deteriorating global growth outlook, according to economists.

The surge in edible and crude oil prices are bound to feed into headline inflation, which has already breached the upper tolerance limit of the Reserve Bank of India’s 2%-6% target range. While the RBI has blamed supply side shocks for the spike, higher prices will nevertheless eat into disposable incomes of consumers, the backbone of the economy that has yet to fully start spending after the pandemic.

“This is the policy maker’s nightmare -- risk of persistent inflation, alongside a very uneven and unsatisfactory growth,” said Ananth Narayan, senior India analyst at Observatory Group, an economic and political advisory firm.

With crude prices over $100 a barrel and amid geopolitical uncertainty, Narayan sees it possible for retail inflation to average 6% next fiscal year beginning April -- instead of the 4.5% forecast by the RBI. India, which relies on imports to meet about 85% of its oil needs, is expected to let pump prices rise once key state elections wrap up this month.

“Inflation numbers purely based on oil prices could head higher if the government decides to pass on even half of the impact,” said Soumya Kanti Ghosh, an economist at State Bank of India.

A 10% increase in retail prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas could result in a 50 to 55 basis point rise in headline consumer prices over the course of a year, according to estimates by Saugata Bhattacharya, chief economist at Axis Bank Ltd.

Still, the central bank may stay away from raising interest rates as it reconciles its roles of fighting inflation, supporting growth and managing the government’s debt issuance. The global market volatility following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is already upsetting India’s budget math, stoking concerns the administration may need to rely on additional borrowings to make up for any shortfall.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is rethinking the timing of its proposed share sale in Life Insurance Corp., which could deprive it of revenue and enlarge a budget deficit that’s already one of the widest in the world.

Although India has, for now, ruled out borrowing more this fiscal year to bridge the gap, its debt plan for the year beginning April 1 is at a record, making cheaper interest rate an imperative.

“Sharp rise in energy prices and pass through impact of other commodity prices will create more challenges for growth-inflation dynamics,” said Soumyajit Niyogi, associate director at India Ratings and Research. “Though the global central banks could still go for monetary tightening, domestically RBI is expected to continue with wait and watch policy.”

More Risks

Crude is not the only problem. Record cooking oil prices in global markets are complicating the job of policy makers. The sharp rise in prices of commodities has started seeping into domestic prices, with cooking oil prices, particularly that of sunflower oil, rising by as much as 25 rupees (33 cents) a liter. Ukraine and Russia account for about 80% of world sunflower oil cargoes.

Prices of commercial liquefied petroleum gas were revised up by 105 rupees at the start of this month, while cooking gas prices are expected to witness a sharp revision in April. India’s most popular dairy brand Amul hiked milk prices by 2 rupees a liter this month, citing higher costs for energy, packaging, logistics and cattle feed. Meanwhile, home appliances companies are citing intensive supply chain disruptions to raise prices.

The crude oil price shock can shave off as much as 60 basis points of economic growth in India, according to Anubhuti Sahay, Mumbai-based South Asia chief economist at Standard Chartered Plc.

Despite price pressures, the RBI has maintained an accommodative stance to support growth, drawing criticism from some quarters that it could fall behind the curve. Jayanth Rama Varma, the lone dissenter among India’s monetary policy setters, has said the central bank’s inflation-targeting credibility is at risk if it keeps policy loose for too long.

Governor Shaktikanta Das, however, said in a speech Friday that the RBI has acted in line with its domestic growth-inflation dynamics. :|
Ambar
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Ambar »

Btw, it increasingly feels like 2010 all over again. We have rising commodities, high inflation, rupee under pressure and hitting new lows, record trade deficit, record high fiscal deficit (thanks to covid), increasing short term debt, record high debt to gdp ratio and stubborn bank NPAs. The only thing different this time are the absence of monthly mega-multi crores scams.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by suryag »

Ambar ji - please throw in some statistics to substantiate your "feels like 2010" comment, without data this is like those useless whatsapp forwards high on rhetoric/punch dialogues and low on substance.
Yagnasri
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Yagnasri »

For the last few years, no one seriously talked about price rise as an election issue. But in the UP elections, few people who are not BJP voters are talking about it. With petrol prices going higher than ever before, either GoI needs to reduce taxes which it can not do without increasing the deficit or allowing the free increase of oil prices. The same goes for cooking gas. That will be a far greater issue with more households having gas cooking due to free connection. :D

The age-old issue of good economics or good politics may come back. Not a good place to be if you are Finance Minister or PM.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Ambar »

suryag wrote:Ambar ji - please throw in some statistics to substantiate your "feels like 2010" comment, without data this is like those useless whatsapp forwards high on rhetoric/punch dialogues and low on substance.
Record trade deficit - https://www.financialexpress.com/econom ... s/2398711/

https://indianexpress.com/article/expla ... e-7737611/

USD to INR - https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-IN ... story.html

Fiscal deficit - https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/31/india-b ... forms.html

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 282022.cms

Debt to gdp ratio - https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/i ... ominal-gdp

WPI at a 30 yr high - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ecade-high

Gross NPA - https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 316357.cms
suryag
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by suryag »

Thanks Ambar ji - there is no "feels like 2010" data in all the above. All of the data above is having not much relevance from a comparison perspective.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Ambar »

2009-2010 is when many economic indicators began going south and did not recover until 2015 and hence the comparison. While the FDI, FII intake and record exports are silver linings, we can only ignore the gathering dark clouds at our own peril.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vinod »

The world economy is going to go south anyway now. India will inevitably be affected as well. Indians will have a lot of tough decisions to make in the coming near future. And not all decisions will be got right. They will have to anticipate a lot of things in this fluid situation we are in now. I'm hoping though that they will get the important ones right.
Comparing with the past metrics in the classical sense may not be right now and will have to come up with really innovative solutions.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vips »

RBI launches UPI123Pay that allows UPI payments on feature phones.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Tuesday launched the country’s most famous unified payments interface (UPI) service for feature phones. Termed as UPI123PAY, the service will allow 40 crore feature phone users across India to access the payment service.

So far UPI was available only across all smartphones in India but with the latest move, feature phone users will also be allowed to send and receive payments.

Speaking at the launch, Das said that the UPI recorded 453 crore transactions worth Rs 8.26 lakh crore in February 2022, which is almost double in comparison to a year ago. He said in the financial year 2020-21, the total value of transactions done on UPI was around Rs 41 lakh crore whereas in the current fiscal so far the total volume of transactions is Rs 76 lakh crore and added that the day is not far when the overall volumes will touch Rs 100 lakh crore.

In his speech, Das said that as of now the multifaceted features of UPI are mostly available only on smartphones, which excludes people from the lower rung of the society from an economic perspective, especially in the rural areas, from accessing the popular service, even though the smartphone prices are going down.

The UPI123Pay service is a three-step method to initiate and execute services for users, which will work on phones which do not have an option for internet connection. Presently there are an estimated 40 crore mobile phone users who possess feature phones.

These users will now be able to undertake a host of transactions by 1. calling an IVR (interactive voice response) number, 2. app functionality in feature phones, 3. missed call-based approach and 4. also proximity sound-based payments.

Users will be able to make payments to their friends and family, pay their utility bills, recharge FASTags, pay mobile bills and also check their account balances, the central bank said, adding customers will also be able to link bank accounts, set or change UPI PINs.

The RBI governor also launched a 24×7 helpline for digital payments which will assist callers with their queries on digital payments through their website and chatbot. Users can log on to http://www.digisaathi.info or call on 14431 and 1800 891 3333 from their phones to avail this.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by arvin »

Much needed step to bypass prescence of Google and Apple in the payment chain. On smartphone and web transactions, UPI has already mauled VISA and Mastercard. This new service will make it independent of Android and iOS.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by hgupta »

India needs to create an independent smartphone OS with its own App Store to avoid the blackmail and vulnerability of having its entire smartphone ecosystem being subjected to U.S. hegemony and hamfisted approach of control. Otherwise India would be forever at the mercy of US and that’s not a good situation to be in.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by rajkumar »

hgupta wrote:India needs to create an independent smartphone OS with its own App Store to avoid the blackmail and vulnerability of having its entire smartphone ecosystem being subjected to U.S. hegemony and hamfisted approach of control. Otherwise India would be forever at the mercy of US and that’s not a good situation to be in.
Not worth it. Microsoft tried and failed. Apple App Store & Android App store have too much of a head start
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by arvin »

Microsoft failed due to a lousy OS.
A local mobile and cloud eco system is a must considering our market size.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by GShankar »

if push comes to shove, our govt. could do a rupay on mobile (OS) market control. But the roll out concept/strategy would be different.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by hgupta »

rajkumar wrote:
hgupta wrote:India needs to create an independent smartphone OS with its own App Store to avoid the blackmail and vulnerability of having its entire smartphone ecosystem being subjected to U.S. hegemony and hamfisted approach of control. Otherwise India would be forever at the mercy of US and that’s not a good situation to be in.
Not worth it. Microsoft tried and failed. Apple App Store & Android App store have too much of a head start
Then perhaps a government intervention is needed along the lines of antitrust and national security regulatory framework.

Something like along the lines that for any app to take place in India if it has been downloaded more than 10k times the app owners must create an app that can work with an Indian version of the OS for smartphone. That way if sanctions ever come we have a backup ready. We can do a flat rate tax all across the board to support this backup so that if that day ever comes where Uncle Sam decides to sanction India, India can tell US to go fvck themselves and shrug it off.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Please avoid continuing the discussion on tech here - the Indian IT Industry thread is more suitable.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by UBanerjee »

India's first step needs to guarantee its own energy security and commodities for the common people. The US won't do it. In fact the US bloc is actively pouring oil on the flames of this coming global economic shock. It might even be deliberate, to destabilize the global south and blame it on Russia. India can get around it by taking whatever steps necessary to buy cheap Russian and Iranian gas in rupees, rubles, gold, whatever.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vips »

Over 8.22 cr taxpayers in FY20
India had 8.22 crore taxpayers, which include individuals and corporates, in 2019-20, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman informed the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday. "Total number of taxpayers for AY 2020-21 is 8,22,83,407. The projected total population of the country as on March 1, 2021 was 136.30 crore," Sitharaman said.

The number of taxpayers include persons who pay income tax and corporate tax and who have either filed a Return of Income or in whose case tax has been deducted at source.

Sitharaman further said the government has implemented the non-filers monitoring system (NMS) which assimilates and analyses in-house information as well as transactional data received from third-parties to identify such persons/entities who have undertaken high value financial transactions with potential tax liabilities but have not filed their returns.

"The (tax) department seeks to bring more non-filers into the tax net by formulating region-specific strategies by the field authorities for identifying potential non-filers, holding of outreach programmes to encourage voluntary compliance and extensive use of mass media for creating awareness, issuing statutory notices to enforce compliance, simplification in income-tax returns and filing process to encourage voluntary filing," she said.
Further, e-mails and SMS reminders are issued to taxpayers to file ITRs and pay their due taxes.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

CNBC-TV18
@CNBCTV18News

Govt beats FY22 direct tax collection estimate by over Rs 1 lakh crore. The mop-up as of March 17 stands at Rs 13.6 lakh crore. @ShereenBhan speaks to CBDT Chairman JB Mohapatra
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Image
Image
Ministry of Finance @FinMinIndia
Net Direct Tax collections for the F.Y. 2021-22 at Rs. 13,63,038 crore showing a growth of over 48.4%
Read more https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePa ... ID=1807004
Mohandas Pai @TVMohandasPai

Congrats to FM @nsitharaman @FinMinIndia @narendramodi @PMOIndia
on exceeding even the increased RE by 1.15l cr! Unbelievable tax collections this year @PiyushGoyal
Time for big reform on personal tax now
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Mort Walker »

vijayk wrote:CNBC-TV18
@CNBCTV18News

Govt beats FY22 direct tax collection estimate by over Rs 1 lakh crore. The mop-up as of March 17 stands at Rs 13.6 lakh crore. @ShereenBhan speaks to CBDT Chairman JB Mohapatra
If it is more than estimates, then the government needs to refund that money, or at least significantly reduce taxes in other areas such as fuel for this FY. No government of any political party should collect more taxes than needed.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Aditya_V »

Mort Walker wrote:
vijayk wrote:CNBC-TV18
@CNBCTV18News

Govt beats FY22 direct tax collection estimate by over Rs 1 lakh crore. The mop-up as of March 17 stands at Rs 13.6 lakh crore. @ShereenBhan speaks to CBDT Chairman JB Mohapatra
If it is more than estimates, then the government needs to refund that money, or at least significantly reduce taxes in other areas such as fuel for this FY. No government of any political party should collect more taxes than needed.
Expenses come in a bit higher, in the last 2 years due to Lockdown and GST compensation cess, the Central Government has incurred shortfall of about 13 Lakh crore. States have been cushioned by GST compensation cess. The Government needs the money to reduce debt and free up money for infrastructure, Defense etc. It is just an indication the Indian Economy has done pretty ok in these terrible 2 years.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

Oil prices are through the roof, commodities as well. The govt will see a sharp rise in its own procurement costs and infrastructure project costs. Fertiliser subsidy will cost more. Not sure what they can give back. If any is left, I'd rather see it added to defense spend on Atmanirbhar.
Indians and everyone else need to cut down on energy spend for the next few months to tide through the Ukr war impact. Reduce heating, a/c, non-essential travel, power wastage etc, and try public transport, car pooling, WFH etc where possible. Even a 10% saving by each individual will help the country immensely.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

Image
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

chetak wrote:Image
essence of the story

1. Buy our weapons
2. If you are fortunate, We might send some of our manufacturing if you behave well ... work hard and make money for us
:rotfl:
3. Then what? left unsaid ... you might be fortunate to fight China on our behalf and die?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Benjamin Parkin
@b_parkyn
Russian oil exports to India have already quadrupled this month. "Committed oil cargoes from Russia that can’t find buyers in Europe are being bought by India" Fascinating story by
@harrydemps

@ChloeNCornish
https://www.ft.com/content/5efc6338-3f0 ... a4a1944ca8

https://twitter.com/suryakane/status/15 ... 8205898753
Surya Kanegaonkar
@suryakane
Working in the energy industry, modeling the impact of prices and supply/demand on industrial and retail customers, I can safely say
@HardeepSPuri and GOI’s decision to buy Russian oil will ensure inflation is managed and industries remain globally competitive. Fantastic move.
Surya Kanegaonkar @suryakane
The Petroleum & Natural Gas Ministry far exceeded expectations even under
@dpradhanbjp. During the pandemic, they bought oil at $20-30/barrel and rented storage facilities in the US, KSA and UAE, saving $ billions. Today, they’re actively staying ahead of the inflation curve.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ I really wish they could fix some of the service & salary rules to return a percentage of profits (even a single percent is good) to employees and management who make these brave and proactive decisions.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Ambar »

95% of Indians don't have the luxury to cut down on anything beyond what they already do and have been doing for generations. Taking joy rides, non-essential travel, blasting AC at home etc. are luxuries very few can afford. Converted to dollars and US gallons, we already pay around $5.20 per gallon. pretty close to what many european countries pay and this in a country where the per capita income 1/15th or 1/20th compared to western countries. The government has no business asking people to sacrifice anymore than what they already do especially when the same government increases the taxes when global oil prices goes down instead of passing the lower prices to the consumers. Gasoline prices doesnt just impact the commuters, it also directly hits everything from food to consumer durables due to the increase in transportation cost.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by uddu »

Also no need cutting down anything. OPEC will cut output and price will be kept high, irrespective of what we do.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Prasad »

Oil prices are already at near all-time highs. People are looking forward to the govt reducing fuel prices. Let's not forget that apart from commodities, fuel-induced inflation is also directly impacting millions of poor folks in India. Hook or crook, cheaper fuel is a damn necessity for us. Europeans can war amongst themselves for all we care. Virtue signalling about democracy and hyooman rights is all good for western europe and the us.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

Prasad wrote:Oil prices are already at near all-time highs. People are looking forward to the govt reducing fuel prices. Let's not forget that apart from commodities, fuel-induced inflation is also directly impacting millions of poor folks in India. Hook or crook, cheaper fuel is a damn necessity for us. Europeans can war amongst themselves for all we care. Virtue signalling about democracy and hyooman rights is all
good for western europe and the us.
Buy more Russian crude for half our requirements, will take care of inflation.pass on the lower prices to consumers
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

Another option is rosneft to open a wholly owned subsidiary in India and let them import.russian oil and.sell it here ! They can repatriate in yuan / rupee
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

https://metrosaga.com/centre-takes-up-p ... or-rivers/

a phenomenal long term plan .. this plan would benefit manyfold down the years
kit
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »



something for greta.t
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

Image

When SWIFT sanctioned Russia they found an alternative with China Union pay. India has joined in the trade too. Expect all Brics countries to be in the ploy and any country that has been sanctioned by the US, even No korea can take advantage of this to bypass the sanctions.
India and China alone have almost 4billion purchasing power in population. China has the production capacity while India and Russia have extra technology and innovation capabilities to add to the already ingenuity of China.
For the first time in a long time, this trading bloc will have enough power to bypass any sanctions from the west.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by sanjaykumar »

This is exactly as I posted. The non-west world will dump dollars. And perhaps The Dollar. This is just counterproductive for the west. That really should have been gamed.

It is significant that Saudi Arabia has not increased production. What is not clear is why the saudis want their pound of flesh.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by GShankar »

saudis are pissed about the fact that uncle is speaking with ayatollahs.

However, I am wondering why would india join this system is RuPAY is not going to be a prominent mechanism? Meaning if unionpay is visa, RuPAY must be mastercard. Such a thing would not be a bad idea.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vimal »

Saudis are also pissed because of the recent anti-Saudi news in US media which clearly is approved by SD. There is an increasing cacophony of letting eyeran off the hook and saudis being the bad boys. We all know how that ends in ME and NATO already has a well rehearsed template for that given decades of practice.

All this should make Sauds really nervous!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

vimal wrote:
All this should make Sauds really nervous!
well Saudis can co exist with Iran , it cannot be wished away as BS had said recently., but backstabbing and use of countries like condoms to be used and discarded by the US has left a bitter after taste in everyone except its poodle across the Atlantic
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