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Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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JohnTitor
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JohnTitor » 04 Jan 2018 11:25

^^ low interest rates don’t lead to higher savings. In fact the opposite is true, low rates lead to higher borrowing.

Secondly, Asians by and large are savers (https://www.businessinsider.in/Here-are ... 088660.cms). In fact this is a problem because savings aren’t used productively. They are just lent out by banks and aren’t always used efficiently (as far as society is concerned). Spending on the other hand leads to more directed investment.

These savings are a major headache for the likes of China and India. The Chinese have the advantage of using it collectively because of communism/dictatorship. The Indian government can’t ask all banks to pool money and use it to build infrastructure, industries etc

The japs on other hand went about it by borrowing from savers. Japanese debt to gdp is huge but most of it is borrowed from Japanese savers themselves

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 04 Jan 2018 16:12

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rves-swell

India and Thailand may have to give freer rein to the rupee and baht this year to avoid triggering U.S. accusations that they’re manipulating their currencies to support exports.

The Reserve Bank of India has already exceeded a key threshold on how much it can intervene to curb the rupee’s gains that the U.S. monitors, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. Policy makers in Thailand have also passed this level with the baht, said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.

Should the two countries’ central banks seek to assuage U.S. concerns -- and avoid a range of possible penalties -- it would likely lead to gains for their currencies, potentially reducing their export competitiveness. For all the efforts of policy makers last year, the baht appreciated almost 10 percent against the dollar, while the rupee climbed 6.4 percent.


The two nations posted the biggest percentage gains among Asian emerging markets in their foreign-exchange reserves last year, more evidence their central banks are buying dollars to curb currency gains. China, South Korea and Taiwan -- which have been previously called out by the U.S. -- recorded some of the smallest increases.

The threat of U.S. complaints will support more appreciation in Asian currencies in general this year, said Rajeev De Mello, head of Asian fixed income at Schroder Investment Management Ltd. in Singapore. There’s been a notable reduction in intervention from the three North Asian central banks, according to Schroder Investment and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

“Thailand and India have been two exceptions, which have been actively accumulating reserves to stem appreciation pressure on their currencies,” said Khoon Goh, head of research at ANZ in Singapore. Thailand isn’t one of the top 12 trade partners that the U.S. normally focuses on but could find itself under scrutiny if the net is cast wider, Goh said.

The rupee and baht have made strong starts to the year, gaining 0.6 percent and 1 percent against the dollar, respectively.

While the U.S. hasn’t branded any country a manipulator since 1994, meeting two of the following three criteria will get you on the monitoring list:

A trade surplus with the U.S. of $20 billion or more
A current-account excess of at least 3 percent of gross domestic product
Net buying of foreign currencies amounting to at least 2 percent of GDP over a 12-month period
China and Korea were the only two emerging markets on the list at the last semi-annual report in October, while Taiwan was removed.

India

Nomura said in a Dec. 11 note that the RBI had already passed the 2 percent of GDP annual intervention threshold. The U.S.’s trade deficit with India was $19.7 billion at the end of October, according to data compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. A persistent current-account deficit -- 1.4 percent of GDP in the third quarter -- would appear to be India’s saving grace.

An RBI spokesman didn’t respond to questions on its intervention policy. The monetary authority has consistently said in the past that it intervenes to curb undue volatility.

The Treasury noted India’s net foreign-exchange purchases in its October report and said it would be closely monitoring the nation’s currency and macroeconomic policies. “Overall, we expect RBI intervention to be constrained by the U.S. Treasury’s focus,” Craig Chan, the global head of emerging-market FX strategy at Nomura in Singapore, said in the note.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 04 Jan 2018 16:22

Indian households' savings have been on a downwards trend for the last five years.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/lcM37ks ... onomy.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 04 Jan 2018 17:26

https://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/ ... 0e5ba07398
Nikkei India Services PMI
Following a decline in November, the Indian service sector returned to marginal growth during December....

From 48.5 in November to 50.9 in December, the seasonally adjusted Business Activity Index signalled a renewed increase in activity following a decline in November. The turnaround in business activity stemmed from growth in Information & Communications and Finance & Insurance, with declines seen elsewhere. That said, activity growth was slight and remained well below the average recorded for the survey history as a whole.
...
Meanwhile, production growth at Indian manufacturers quickened to the fastest in five years. The headline seasonally adjusted Nikkei India Composite PMI Output Index posted at 53.0 in December up from 50.3 in November. The latest reading was the highest since October 2016 and greater than the average recorded in 2017 so far.
....
In fact, {during December} job creation accelerated to the sharpest since August 2012.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Agasthi » 05 Jan 2018 08:01

Noticed (at least to the extent that I'm aware of) that a number of big stores in the past 2 months carry a lot of wares from India in Sydney. At Ikea, a significant number of items were 'Made in India' and were of very good quality especially crockery items. At other stores, similar stuff, although there was a fair bit of 'Made in Bangladesh' and 'Made in Vietnam' for clothes. I think we are slowly plugging into the global supply chain as China exits these sectors.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby KrishnaK » 05 Jan 2018 08:28

JohnTitor wrote:^^ low interest rates don’t lead to higher savings. In fact the opposite is true, low rates lead to higher borrowing.
It forces savers to save more and lets borrowers to borrow more, cheaply. Financial Repression

China's economic growth has been attributed to financial repression thanks to "low returns on savings and the cheap loans that it makes possible". This has allowed China to rely on savings-financed investments for economic growth. However, because low returns also dampens consumer spending, household expenditures account for "a smaller share of GDP in China than in any other major economy".[1] However, as of December 2014, the People’s Bank of China "started to undo decades of financial repression" and the government now allows Chinese savers to collect up to a 3.3% return on one-year deposits. At China's 1.6% inflation rate, this is a "high real-interest rate compared to other major economies”.[1]

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 05 Jan 2018 09:58

Prannoy Roy And Ruchir Sharma On Top 10 Trends Of 2018

https://www.ndtv.com/video/news/ndtv-sp ... -topscroll

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 05 Jan 2018 16:35

A_Gupta wrote:Indian households' savings have been on a downwards trend for the last five years.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/lcM37ks ... onomy.html


This link shows a different figure

http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/India/Savings/

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 05 Jan 2018 21:00

Austin wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:Indian households' savings have been on a downwards trend for the last five years.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/lcM37ks ... onomy.html


This link shows a different figure

http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/India/Savings/


That link has data only till 2015. If you look at 2010-2015, then apart from 2014 which shows a rise that is more than wiped out by 2015, the savings rate is declining.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 05 Jan 2018 21:07

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/india-l ... udget.html
India lowers economic growth forecast ahead of budget

India lowered its forecast for the current year's economic growth on Friday before a federal budget is released next month, as businesses were hit by the chaotic launch of new nationwide tax last July.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had earlier estimated the economy would grow around 7.5 percent in the 2017/18 fiscal year, generating enough tax to keep the fiscal deficit at 3.2 percent of GDP after meeting spending targets.

Gross domestic product is now estimated to grow an annual 6.5 percent in 2017/18, slower than a provisional 7.1 percent growth in 2016/17, Ministry of Statistics said in a statement.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prem » 06 Jan 2018 02:55

Reserves up by another 4.5 billions last week and close to 410 billion . https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/WSSView.aspx?Id=21894


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 06 Jan 2018 11:44

Prem wrote:Reserves up by another 4.5 billions last week and close to 410 billion . https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/WSSView.aspx?Id=21894


Since GOI cannot use this and it remains under the realms of RBI to pay for exports and regulate Indian rupee , From what I understand higher forex is only compensated by higher import.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 06 Jan 2018 23:33

What are you trying to say ? RBI is a creation of GoI, run by people appointed by GoI :)

The state of forex reserves gives an idea of what policy measures GoI is undertaking. If anyone has time, it would help to plot INR/USD exchange rate vs forex reserves for the past year or two. I'm guessing GoI is resorting to sterilizing intervention to keep the Rupee from appreciating too much. I have not done a sweep of recent news, so it's not clear what the source of incoming forex is - FDI, FPI, current account changes or services trade surplus.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby sivab » 07 Jan 2018 00:01

^^^ Its FPI. Record ~$31B this year, compared to negative $3B previous yr.

https://twitter.com/RichardRossow/statu ... 9777361920

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 07 Jan 2018 00:20

A_Gupta wrote:https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/05/india-lowers-economic-growth-forecast-ahead-of-budget.html
India lowers economic growth forecast ahead of budget

India lowered its forecast for the current year's economic growth on Friday before a federal budget is released next month, as businesses were hit by the chaotic launch of new nationwide tax last July.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley had earlier estimated the economy would grow around 7.5 percent in the 2017/18 fiscal year, generating enough tax to keep the fiscal deficit at 3.2 percent of GDP after meeting spending targets.

Gross domestic product is now estimated to grow an annual 6.5 percent in 2017/18, slower than a provisional 7.1 percent growth in 2016/17, Ministry of Statistics said in a statement.


Is there any hope of this turning around?
Did Modi trust Jaitley and FinMin too much?

https://news.bitcoin.com/indians-crypto ... t-clarify/
The Indian government has been cracking down on cryptocurrency-related tax evasion. While the tax authority has notified crypto exchanges and wealthy traders that they must pay taxes, no clear guidelines have been provided. Indians are confused about how cryptocurrencies are taxed and seven bitcoin exchanges are asking the regulators for clarification.



When I see this, I get disappointed. Chinese Govt. instead of trusting Ethereum/Bitcoin slowly encouraged NEO blockchain which has been sponsored by Govt/industry and taking over the trusted blockchain space. Our fools are trying everything to kill golen goose w/o realizing the potential and future strategy. Other tax grabbing money, does out Finance ministry babus have any other brains?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 07 Jan 2018 00:56

sivab wrote:^^^ Its FPI. Record ~$31B this year, compared to negative $3B previous yr.

https://twitter.com/RichardRossow/statu ... 9777361920

Thanks ! That’s the kind of information I hoped someone could find . $31 billion is a solid number indeed, considering FDI and other parameters have been stable too .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahulsidhu » 07 Jan 2018 01:36

When I see this, I get disappointed. Chinese Govt. instead of trusting Ethereum/Bitcoin slowly encouraged NEO blockchain which has been sponsored by Govt/industry and taking over the trusted blockchain space. Our fools are trying everything to kill golen goose w/o realizing the potential and future strategy. Other tax grabbing money, does out Finance ministry babus have any other brains?


In this case, I think the regulator/Govt. are doing exactly the right thing.

First, cryptocurrencies are today mostly being used for escaping capital controls/tax evasion/illicit trade. How can the govt allow people to trade them freely while also spending so much effort to curb tax evasion, hawala and crime financing? You do not rise above the law just by uttering the word 'Blockchain'.

This is even more important in a country like India with a restricted capital account.

Second, for all the hype and the huge amounts of money invested, decentralized ledgers in general, and cryptocurrencies have not proven to be very useful, outside of the law-escaping applications I listed above. I think this article says it quite well:
https://hackernoon.com/ten-years-in-nob ... e98c180100

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mort Walker » 07 Jan 2018 01:57

Image

The INR has increased over 6% in the last year over the USD. Without RBI intervention it would probably be Rs. 59-60 to 1 USD.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 07 Jan 2018 05:16

Rahulsidhu wrote:
When I see this, I get disappointed. Chinese Govt. instead of trusting Ethereum/Bitcoin slowly encouraged NEO blockchain which has been sponsored by Govt/industry and taking over the trusted blockchain space. Our fools are trying everything to kill golen goose w/o realizing the potential and future strategy. Other tax grabbing money, does out Finance ministry babus have any other brains?


In this case, I think the regulator/Govt. are doing exactly the right thing.

First, cryptocurrencies are today mostly being used for escaping capital controls/tax evasion/illicit trade. How can the govt allow people to trade them freely while also spending so much effort to curb tax evasion, hawala and crime financing? You do not rise above the law just by uttering the word 'Blockchain'.

This is even more important in a country like India with a restricted capital account.

Second, for all the hype and the huge amounts of money invested, decentralized ledgers in general, and cryptocurrencies have not proven to be very useful, outside of the law-escaping applications I listed above. I think this article says it quite well:
https://hackernoon.com/ten-years-in-nob ... e98c180100


Cryptocurrencies is one things but Blockchain strategy is another thing.

I attended MIT India conf last year. Montek Ahluwalia came. Everyone asked him about blockchain. He pleaded no idea and ignored all the questions. This is an innovation for which we need to make a policy between Govt. and industry and promote that technology.

https://www.investopedia.com/news/china ... ereum-neo/
https://www.inc.com/brian-d-evans/the-e ... ptocu.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Sridhar K » 07 Jan 2018 06:27


Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 07 Jan 2018 08:35

No more discussion of Blockchain and crypto here . Please use another appropriate thread .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 07 Jan 2018 20:19

How a new govt division plans to reduce India’s logistics cost to less than 10% of GDP

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/62395133.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

Gist is that Indian logistics costs are relatively higher than US, Germany, etc., based on very limited statistics.
Higher logistics costs hurts Indian competitiveness.
So the job is two-fold - measure logistics better and find ways to reduce them.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 400272.cms
New Delhi, Jan 7 () The commerce ministry will come out with a Logistics Performance Index (LPI) tomorrow, ranking states in terms of the logistical support they provide to promote trade, a senior government official said.

"This will be a perception based ranking and it is the first time in the world that it is coming at the sub-national level," the ministry official said.

The index will act as a dynamic toll for the ministry to identify bottlenecks in this area.

"We will be able to see why perception is negative for some states," the official added. The World Bank has assisted the ministry in preparing the index.

The ranking is based on about eight parameters such as transportation facilities available in states and documentation procedures.

The ranking aims at encouraging states to work and improving upon their logistics related infrastructure. Inadequate infrastructure is impacting the country's trade and investments.

Logistics services such as customs and ports are central government matters but, "why they are functioning smoothly in certain states and not in other, the ranking would help us in understanding this also," another official said.

The issue would be discussed during the third meeting of the Council for Trade Development and Promotion on January 8.

Exporters body FIEO Director General Ajay Sahai has said that the logistics cost in India is very high and there is an urgent need to work on this parameter. High logistics costs make exports uncompetitive.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 07 Jan 2018 20:31

JohnTitor wrote:^^ low interest rates don’t lead to higher savings. In fact the opposite is true, low rates lead to higher borrowing.

Secondly, Asians by and large are savers (https://www.businessinsider.in/Here-are ... 088660.cms). In fact this is a problem because savings aren’t used productively. They are just lent out by banks and aren’t always used efficiently (as far as society is concerned). Spending on the other hand leads to more directed investment.

These savings are a major headache for the likes of China and India. The Chinese have the advantage of using it collectively because of communism/dictatorship. The Indian government can’t ask all banks to pool money and use it to build infrastructure, industries etc

The japs on other hand went about it by borrowing from savers. Japanese debt to gdp is huge but most of it is borrowed from Japanese savers themselves


the GOI should imaginatively issue tax free bonds and mop up the savings directly. many legitimate accounts are flush with funds

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby anupmisra » 07 Jan 2018 22:08

Austin wrote:Since GOI cannot use this and it remains under the realms of RBI to pay for exports and regulate Indian rupee , From what I understand higher forex is only compensated by higher import.


With the right type of imports (e.g., raw materials, fuel, technology) that lead to full time job creation for the lower income strata (e.g., in the low end manufacturing, agricultural and services sectors) and value-added exports (a model that china has followed for years) Indian economic managers can then underpin a stronger economic growth than just 7.8% year on year (or 6.5%, depending on who claims what).

India needs that kind of sustained growth in real terms over the next ten years to grow out of the rut she is in now.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 09 Jan 2018 04:14

National logistics index: Gujarat, Punjab, Andhra best performing states
Gujarat, Punjab and Andhra Pradesh are the best performing states in terms of mobility of goods and efficiency of logistics chain, according to a new ranking of states brought out by the government.

Karnataka, Maharashtra, Haryana, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Chhattisgarh made up the remaining top 10. Assam, Bihar and Jammu & Kashmir featured on the bottom of the list, owing to the lack of good transport facilities, scarcity of logistics services and bad track record in timeliness.

The report was made after inputs of hundreds of respondents in the logistics segment, including shippers, logistics service providers, terminal operators and transporters from, across the country. The report referred to various industry estimates putting the size of the Indian logistics market at $100-125 billion and growing at about 5 per cent annually. It also noted that logistics services and infrastructure was highly concentrated in 15 states and Union Territories, which account for 90 per cent of total exports by value.

On the global front, India's position in the annual World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index had improved to 35 in 2016, the last time the report was published. This was a jump from the 54th spot India had occupied in the previous report.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Bart S » 09 Jan 2018 04:29

Low hanging fruit for improving logistics without much effort is eliminate toll and find a different way to collect revenues. Truckers unions are fully on board with that and have been asking for it, especially since the experience they had during 2 weeks during the demonetisation period when toll booths were turned off.

Political stupidity continues to drag us down. For example in Chennai heavy trucks are not allowed into the city during day time (only allowed after 10 PM I think) and with good reason. Which means that all the trucks from the massive Sriperumbudur and Oragadam industrial zones, and places further down like Ranipat and Vellore etc that need to cross Chennai city to reach the port, are delayed and held back by that window. The previous DMK govt started work on an elevated road connecting the industrial corridor with the port (something that the Japanese were demanding for a long time) and actually finished the main work of erecting the pillars, when the govt changed and JJ's ego wouldn't let the project complete. Now we have those ugly pillars rotting away in the middle of the city and multiple kms of trucks waiting outside city limits for 10PM. :(

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 10 Jan 2018 05:23

The labour ministry will soon launch a national licence for staffing firms supplying contract workers across industries, a move that seeks to make doing business easier for them.

Since staffing firms typically operate from multiple locations, a national licence will help increase formalisation of the workforce.


Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/62420629.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 10 Jan 2018 14:34

Ruchir Sharma // View on the Asian Economy


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Bart S » 10 Jan 2018 18:55

Austin wrote:Ruchir Sharma // View on the Asian Economy



The guy is really dripping with bile and about India and GOI/Modi. Virtually everything he said about India was dismissive and condescending. His 'insights' are as shallow and worthless as that of those stereotypical yanks visiting Mexico whose key takeaway is that one must only drink bottle water when there.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 10 Jan 2018 19:55

Bart S wrote:
Political stupidity continues to drag us down. For example in Chennai heavy trucks are not allowed into the city during day time (only allowed after 10 PM I think) and with good reason. Which means that all the trucks from the massive Sriperumbudur and Oragadam industrial zones, and places further down like Ranipat and Vellore etc that need to cross Chennai city to reach the port, are delayed and held back by that window. The previous DMK govt started work on an elevated road connecting the industrial corridor with the port (something that the Japanese were demanding for a long time) and actually finished the main work of erecting the pillars, when the govt changed and JJ's ego wouldn't let the project complete. Now we have those ugly pillars rotting away in the middle of the city and multiple kms of trucks waiting outside city limits for 10PM. :(


If there is a raillink to the port, the trucks could use the roll on-roll off of IR. All it requires is a station at source and a station in the port.

There is no need to build special fly over just for trucks.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ricky_v » 10 Jan 2018 21:34

https://newsclick.in/bjp-government-moves-privatise-30-psus-including-air-india
Disinvestment in air India, irctc, mdl, mishra dhatu etc.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 11 Jan 2018 00:04

ricky_v wrote:https://newsclick.in/bjp-government-moves-privatise-30-psus-including-air-india
Disinvestment in air India, irctc, mdl, mishra dhatu etc.


mishra dhatu is like selling the family silver.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 11 Jan 2018 00:06

Bart S wrote:
Austin wrote:Ruchir Sharma // View on the Asian Economy

youtube IyR8aVd-lvc/ youtube


The guy is really dripping with bile and about India and GOI/Modi. Virtually everything he said about India was dismissive and condescending. His 'insights' are as shallow and worthless as that of those stereotypical yanks visiting Mexico whose key takeaway is that one must only drink bottle water when there.


he is a runditv pet in mission mode.

gasbag and paid assassin.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 11 Jan 2018 04:30

Ruchir Sharma's predictions for 2018:
https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/digital-de ... ma-1796917

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 11 Jan 2018 05:06

Following Ambani's comment, another person steps up with a detailed article on the topic. Useful for those who saw the discussion on it here:
India’s GDP Will Be Around $12 Trillion By 2030
Recently the chairman and managing director of Reliance Industries, Mukesh Ambani, said that India’s economy could be a $10 trillion economy by 2030. For context, India’s economy is currently ~$2.5 trillion (adjusted for cost of living or PPP, India’s GDP is already ~$9.5 trillion). Hence, Ambani’s prediction entails a fourfold increase in India’s GDP (as measured in Indian rupees without adjusting for inflation and then converted to United States dollars). Both France and the United Kingdom (UK) individually have an economy roughly the same size as India right now. Amongst nation states, as of 2017-18, only the GDPs of the US, China, Japan and Germany are ahead of India (by PPP, only the US and China are ahead; for this piece, we will go by market exchange rates, not PPP).

However, pessimism abounds – as pointed out by Prime Minister Narendra Modi earlier this year, both in India and abroad, about the prospects of the Indian economy. The pessimism seems to be common more in commentators than investors (it does not mean the latter are necessarily right – but certainly something worth pondering over, given that they put their money where their mouth is). Nonetheless, the commentator-investor divide continues, with the Economist’s correspondent in India calling “bullshit” on Ambani's prediction.

But the doubters have their math and economics wrong. On 31 December 2017, India’s economy is likely to be $2.5 trillion. My prediction is that India’s GDP will be $12 trillion by 31 December 2030. Hence, it is my assertion that not only are many journalists off the mark about India’s prospects, even the country’s leading industrialists such as Ambani may be a tad too conservative in their estimates. Let us see how.

Read article for the rest.

Mort Walker
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mort Walker » 11 Jan 2018 05:58

^^^Interesting.

The charts he's using compare India 2017 to China 2003. Whereas GDP data indicates China had a $2.29T GDP in 2005. I always thought to compare India 2017 to China 2005 or 2006. The key is how well the INR holds up to inflation as the price of oil is now over $60/barrel. The good news is that shale oil producers in west Texas have brought cost down to under $30/barrel using horizontal fracking. Unless there is manipulation by the oil and gas crooks, I don't see oil going over $70/barrel.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mort Walker » 11 Jan 2018 06:20

A_Gupta wrote:Ruchir Sharma's predictions for 2018:
https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/digital-de ... ma-1796917


I don't think this fellow really knows, nor does anyone else. As GST gets fully implemented, we don't know how much it will impact govt. revenue and may not have any idea until 4th quarter of FY2018-19. Also, the US just implemented a massive corporate tax cut and we don't know how that will play out in the US Bond Market and if inflation in the US will cause the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively. This could take money out of FII markets like India.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Gus » 11 Jan 2018 08:07

work will start in the maduravoyal port elevated road. EPS gave approval, promptly leading to accusations of capitulation to Modi demands.

what to do..such is the advanced state TN politics.

http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/pud ... 823817.ece

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 11 Jan 2018 11:09

is it feasible to build a large container port north or south of chennai and connected by a large road? 1000s of heavy vehicles will increase noise and pollution in the city


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