Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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hgupta
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by hgupta »

How do we Indians go after Hindenburg? This cannot go unanswered.
Cyrano
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

This is what is called rules based order saar.
H is the visible part, I suspect many powers behind all the way to the fed are eager to take advantage.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Aditya_V »

hgupta wrote:How do we Indians go after Hindenburg? This cannot go unanswered.
This is not Hindenburg but Entire US Uk establishment, remember Adani Enterprises just started Ingot Manufacturing for Solar Panels in India. He is doing the entire ecosystem for Hydrogen based power. Naturally it hurt well established energy players across the globe.

His shares were overvalued and partly by FII's, it is important that there is a correction, it gives a chance to the retail Investor to Invest, his core businesses ACC, Ambuja Cement, Adani Ports- as more and more ports and Airlines itself will generate a lot of Cash flow. His whole family has access to a lot of Businesses. Including ME elite, In fact if his shares correct 60% from the peak, it will be good Investment opportunity for Retail Investors.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by rahulm »

I think SEBI can negate the short by "readjusting" Indian banking covenants. But it's a bold step.

INC thru Jairam has already opened a flank attack.

There is talk on the street that essentially A grp was fronting M's infra push to bypass the capricious babugiri and that its not such a secret. See Gautam;s interviews in which he talks about it.

A going under will be a setback for infra build pace as this contagion washes thru the system. And this is an election year. Prolly H with BIF + INC will time this to peak next year at election time.

A has real assets and if it folds, I think there will be plenty of takers at book value, caveat is, it should be snapped up by Indian companies.

On the scary side, H does have a good track record of shorts. In the next few days, we should know the short position size and instruments used.
a_bharat
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by a_bharat »

I read somewhere that they shorted bonds issued by Adani companies in the US market.
Mollick.R
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Mollick.R »

Bids for Andaman's Rs 41,000-crore mega port project open today

ET Bureau Last Updated: Jan 28, 2023, 12:10 AM IST

The Centre has invited bids for the ₹41,000-crore mega international container transhipment port (ICTP) being planned for the Galathea Bay of Great Nicobar Island of Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

An official statement issued on Friday said bids for developing the port are being invited on Saturday.

The government is aiming to complete the terminal in 2028 with a handling capacity of 4 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs). A TEU is an approximate unit of measure used for cargo containers. The capacity of the port will increase to 16 million TEUs in the ultimate stage of development.

"Progressive steps are being taken by the government under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The transhipment terminal will offer top-notch facilities to the stakeholders in the maritime trade sector," Sarbananda Sonowal, minister for ports, shipping and waterways, told ET in New Delhi.

In another development, Sonowal inaugurated the National Logistics Portal-Marine, a single-window logistics portal to reduce the logistics cost for exporters.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... content=23
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Mod Note

Please keep this thread to the topic, politics go elsewhere.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by gakakkad »

Shorting bonds must be whole lot more complicated than shorting stocks . They must somehow take x account interest rates of bonds.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

gakakkad wrote:Shorting bonds must be whole lot more complicated than shorting stocks . They must somehow take x account interest rates of bonds.
Are the FIIs in India dumping Adani stock?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

On a scale of 1-10 how big is the threat to Indian financial sector due to this crisis?

What do they have to do to contain this? Additional investment? Can Adani divest to some other business firms like Ambains to reduce their debt?

How big is the threat to Indian Govt?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by JTull »

gakakkad wrote:Shorting bonds must be whole lot more complicated than shorting stocks . They must somehow take x account interest rates of bonds.
No one needs to short the bond. It's about the increase in credit spreads which can be done with minimal margin using CSOs.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

CNBC-TV18 @CNBCTV18Live

#Adani Ent Says #FPO is going as per the schedule and the announced price band, there Is no change in either the schedule or the issue price

All our stakeholders including bankers and investors have full faith in the FPO, extremely confident about the success of the FPO
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rahulm
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by rahulm »

If H pulls this off, will make a lot of money and keep making it for a long time till elections .they hit the gravy train and NIFTY may be hostage. Lets see how the story unfolds on Monday and particularly after Budget day.

Maybe SEBI should take out the Adani firms from index and release some pressure . Till then every investor and NIFTY have to pay the price as this unfolds.

IMVHO, unwise for A to file a case against H in US courts. Every document inc. toilet paper (used and unused) will have to be disclosed.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Dilbu »

vijayk wrote:
gakakkad wrote:Shorting bonds must be whole lot more complicated than shorting stocks . They must somehow take x account interest rates of bonds.
Are the FIIs in India dumping Adani stock?
From what I understood the exposure of mutual funds and other domestic retail investors are negligible. Mainly because of the high float percentage of Adani group. The number of shares available to be purchased by public is very less as most of the shares are held by the family entities. The exposure is mainly in the form of debt, foreign and Indian. The current ratio of many A companies are less than 1 indicating more liabilities than assets to cover a sudden repayment requirement. The only worry as of now looks like the drop in share price which might affect future availability of funds for the group.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Dilbu wrote:
vijayk wrote:
Are the FIIs in India dumping Adani stock?
From what I understood the exposure of mutual funds and other domestic retail investors are negligible. Mainly because of the high float percentage of Adani group. The number of shares available to be purchased by public is very less as most of the shares are held by the family entities. The exposure is mainly in the form of debt, foreign and Indian. The current ratio of many A companies are less than 1 indicating more liabilities than assets to cover a sudden repayment requirement. The only worry as of now looks like the drop in share price which might affect future availability of funds for the group.
I read this " They should have suspended trade in Adani stocks and let the short sellers sweat. Disastrous management..."

Will this work?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vera_k »

vijayk wrote:I read this " They should have suspended trade in Adani stocks and let the short sellers sweat. Disastrous management..."

Will this work?
No, it would not work because the stock is not being shorted. In fact it could cause the bonds to sell off more. As it is, everything is happening in an orderly fashion, and the short is likely to fail long as Adani is willing to raise equity at a lower valuation than previously possible (although still much higher than even 2 years ago).
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://acrobat.adobe.com/link/track?ur ... p-discover
Adani has just released a 413 page statement in response to Hindenburg allegations


https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 59011.html
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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vera_k
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vera_k »

Hindenburg's response to Adani is out.

Response
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

vera_k wrote:Hindenburg's response to Adani is out.

Response
That's a stupid response. They could have poked holes in his response
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

*Abu Dhabi’s IHC Invests $400 Million or Rs 3200 Cr in Adani Share Offering*
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-offering

*IHC subscribed to 16% of Adani Enterprises FPO*

*"Our interest in Adani Group is driven by our confidence and belief in the fundamentals of Adani Enterprises Ltd; we see a strong potential for growth from a long-term perspective and added value to our shareholders"*

CEO, IHC.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by rahulm »



According to him this is the US retaliation for buying Russian oil and not toeing the US line. Thats a pretty big statement to make if it turns out to be true. He calls it an attack on India by the US to create a systemic issue.crisis in India.

and that regime change ^*^% pit Nuland bull is currently in India.

Didn't some brown sepoy in US say that India can buy Russian oil but will have to pay the price, dont remember his name.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Vinayak Chatterjee stocks: Current ‘brouhaha’ will pass; we need more Adanis to undertake infra projects: Vinayak Chatterjee - The Economic Times - https://m.economictimes.com/markets/exp ... 440289.cms
You have been in the infra business for a while. What are you making of Adani's asset quality in terms of their infra business? Obviously, they do have a lot of infra projects coming in as well. What should one be making of that as of now?

I have personally been tracking the developments over the last few days. I think it is going to blow over. Over the years that I have been tracking the assets, the important thing is from an infrastructure point of view, the assets are fundamentally sound and strong. point of view, the assets are fundamentally very sound and strong. Whether it's the ports or the airports business, these are stable businesses that generate cash and are unaffected by all the turbulence in the rest of the world in terms of exports and imports and all that.
I have just come back from the renewable energy park in Kutch at a place called Khavda. There is the world's largest renewable energy park of 30,000 megawatts, the largest in the world of which the Adani Group is implementing 50% or about 15,000 megawatts.
After all, the nation today requires Rs 20 lakh crore in infrastructure investments. It will soon become Rs 22 lakh crore per annum. Of this, the central and state sectors can do only about 60% and 40% have to be done by investors of the size and the stature of the Adani Group.
I do not think it will be dented in any manner and this current brouhaha will pass. I do not see any problem in execution. The group has very fine execution skills and any of this is not going to impact the planned execution in the coming months.
I have actually tracked the execution capabilities of this group over the last 25 years and I have seen the quality of execution. I just do not mean on the ground, it is the ability to raise capital, the ability to envision a project, the ability to hire people and procure components and parts and it is the ability to put it all together on the ground.
It is a fantastic capacity and capability and I do not see any problem once this blows over.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

The current accusations are not about execution capability. its about a web of close family transactions done through tax and regulatory evasion havens like Mauritius to window dress balance sheet and shore up stock price to be able to raise even more debt to fund payments due on earlier contracted debt. Thats the core issue.

Risk for new bond buyers / stock buyers : They could be entering at a peak moment, and given the issue above the only way forward could be downwards.

Risk for Govt: What are our regulators and Fin Min doing? Some of these matters have been known for years. Letting known bubbles grow and grow until they break up in everybody's face has happened time and again. Shakes confidence in the system.

Risk for Economy : This is an unwelcome speed bump in our glittering growth story. But its better to encounter such bumps and sort them out than react protectively towards possible crooks and become more and more dependent on such large "too big to fail" players who will then continue with greater sense of impunity.

Mihir Sharma's views above make most sense to me.

Even if this were a conspiracy it has no bearing on what SEBI and the govt need to do in _this_ matter. The govt need not hesitate probing the matter fearing that would only play into the hands of Hindenburg which is betting using its own money. Acting in a way that demonstrates strong regulatory ability and serious intent to have clean markets must be the priority.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

^^
From https://mobile.twitter.com/BahlKanan/st ... 9165200384

1/ Adani Group is Deeply over leveraged

- Group has executional excellence

- Net Debt to EBITDA has reduced from 7.6x to 3.2x

- EBITDA has grown at 22%, Net Debt has grown at 11% CAGR in last 9 yrs


Image

2/ Highly pledged promoter stake in group cos

- The promoter pledge has reduced drastically in the last few years

Image
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 428512.cms
After the $20 billion investment commitment by Vedanta-Foxconn, a joint venture between the Vedanta Group and Taiwanese chipmaker, Foxconn, the semiconductor landscape of Gujarat is set to grow bigger and better with yet another major investment push.
US-based data storage device manufacturer, Micron Technology, is in advance-level discussions with the state government to invest Rs 75,000 cr ($10 billion)
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by ritesh »

hgupta wrote:How do we Indians go after Hindenburg? This cannot go unanswered.
The least Adani should do is to file a defamation law suit in US for 100 billion usd.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

413 page ADANI RESPONSE to hindenburg's charges


8.7MB download if you wish


https://bsmedia.business-standard.com/_ ... 202023.pdf
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

@MinhazMerchant·20h

The enemy within.

From the ⁦@HindenburgRes ⁩ allegations to @BBC’s third-rate documentary to the Brutish Empire to the invading Mughals.

It’s always the complicit enemy within.

For anti-India bhakts & haters, who are calling #IHC an #Adani shell company, this #Forbes report will grate. IHC is one of Abu Dhabi’s most valuable companies & has a current market cap of $200 billion.

https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/leader ... rket-mover
Two notorious Indian @business (Bloomberg) & @bsindia columnists who were relishing the @HindenburgRes assault on #Adani will be mortified by #IHC’s $400 million vote of confidence in the #FPO.

India.

The enemy lies within.

Historically & contemporaneously.


Image




https://www.livemint.com/companies/news ... 59105.html

LIC said it has Rs. 35,917.31 crore under equity and debt at the end of December in Adani group stocks

Insurance behemoth Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) on Monday said it has 0.975 per cent of its total assets under management at book value in Adani Group companies.

Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) said it has Rs. 35,917.31 crore under equity and debt at the end of December in Adani Group stock. It said the total purchase value of equity under all Adani group companies is Rs. 30,127 crores and the market value for the same on January 27, 2023 was 56,142 crores. The total amount invested under Adani Group amounts to Rs. 36,474.78 crores to date, said LIC in its statement.

LIC said that the credit rating of all of the Adani debt securities held by it are AA and above which is in compliance with the IRDAI rules

"Further it may be appreciated that the credit rating of all of the Adani debt securities held by LIC are AA and above which is in compliance with the IRDAI investment regulations as applicable to all the Life Insurance companies," the statement added.

This comes at a time when US short-seller Hindenburg Research has accused Gautam Adani's group of stock manipulation, fraud schemes, high debt levels, and the use of tax havens among others.

Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) on Monday revealed that they are reviewing Adani Group's over 400-page response to allegations raised by Hindenburg Research. It plans to hold talks with the conglomerate's management within days.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Dilbu »

Why should Hindenburg have talks with Adani Group at this stage?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Dilbu wrote:Why should Hindenburg have talks with Adani Group at this stage?
??
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

CFO raising jallianwala bogey is a sure shot sign of a scamster for me. Instead of answering serious allegations with facts, he attacks a few sideshow gloaters at Bloomberg etc and make them centre stage. Given the thousands and lakhs of crores we are talking about, I'm sure somewhere rivers of money are flowing to all the right places. The group may yet survive this attack from H, but doubts and unanswered questions will remain...
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Dilbu »

vijayk wrote:
Dilbu wrote:Why should Hindenburg have talks with Adani Group at this stage?
??
Sorry got it wrong. It is LIC holding discussions with Adani Group.
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