Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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yensoy
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

If we need 2 doctors/1000 people, and we 2.6M doctors; and if we assume an average doctor works for 30 years, we need 86k doctors per year on an average. Since we are woefully short of 2/1000, we have a shortfall to make up. A lot of doctors relocate or work overseas; some don't graduate and some stop working early. So even at 92k seats/year we are still churning out fewer doctors than we need. I am surprised someone couldn't do the math pre-2014 and see how woefully short we were in the medical education field.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/kpswathi/status/1481512977690161154

Swathi Moorthy @kpswathi
If you look at the net employee addition in 2020 vs 2021, the numbers are staggering. Between April and December 2021, hiring stood at 1.34 lakh from 35,000 for the same period in 2020
Image
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/worl ... ey-drivers
World Bank: India To Be World's Fastest Growing Economy In 2022 Driven By Infrastructure Spend, Manufacturing PLI Schemes And Reforms

Real GDP Growth (%) Projections By World Bank
World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects Report
Countries 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
India 4.0 -7.3 8.3 8.7 6.8
India's Growth Prospects

According to the report, India’s economy is expected to expand by 8.3 percent in fiscal year 2021/22 (ending March 2022), unchanged from last June’s forecast as the recovery is yet to become broad-based. The economy should benefit from the resumption of contact-intensive services, and ongoing but narrowing monetary and fiscal policy support.

In FY2022/23 and FY2023/24 growth has been upgraded, to 8.7 and 6.8 percent respectively, to reflect an improving investment outlook with private investment, particularly manufacturing, benefiting from the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme, and increases in infrastructure investment.

The growth outlook will also be supported by ongoing structural reforms, a better than-expected financial sector recovery, and measures to resolve financial sector challenges despite ongoing risks.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/capi ... ays-report
Capital Account Convertibility Could Open Up Further, Says Barclays Report
On 14 October 2021, the Reserve Bank of India’s Deputy Governor, T Rabi Shankar gave a speech on India’s Capital Account Management, fuelling hopes for liberalised capital account convertibility (CAC).

Capital account convertibility is the ability to convert foreign currency into Indian currency and vice versa, for various investments in fixed and financial assets. While the government has liberalised CAC over the years, it still remains apprehensive about full convertibility.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Digital India @_DigitalIndia
Design Linked Incentive (DLI) Scheme, with an aim to create vibrant #semiconductor chip design ecosystem in the country, is now inviting applications from 100 domestic companies, startups & MSMEs involved in semiconductor design at http://chips-dli.gov.in. Apply now!
https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/big- ... rban-areas
Big Boost For Digital India: RailTel To Set Up Over 100 Edge Data Centres In Rural And Semi-Urban Areas
In a boost to Mission Digital India, RailTel would set up several ‘edge data centres’ in rural and semi-urban areas to accelerate the pace of digital transformation and efficient digital delivery in such areas across the country.

Entailing an investment opportunity of around Rs 500 crore under PPP model, edge data centres would come up at 102 locations in the rail premises in tier-2 and tier-3 towns in the country.

Edge data centres are small data centres located at the edge of the network, where they are closer to end users and devices. Having such kind of facility at the edge would enable faster performance and lower latency as organisations will not have to move the data to far-flung data centres to process it.

Latency has always been a problem for data centre managers, but in recent times it has become a critical concern in view of wide range of next-generation applications like big data, the Internet of Things, cloud and streaming services, and other technology trends.

The process to establish these edge data centres has been set in motion with the floating of expression of interest (EoI) by RailTel inviting industry to be partner.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/textile-s ... ember-2021
Textile sector exports increased by around 41 per cent to $29.8 billion during April-December 2021, an official release said on Wednesday (12 January).

"During April-December 2021, the total Textiles and Apparel including Handicrafts exports was $29.8 billion as compared to $21.2 billion for the same period last year,' the Ministry of Textiles said in a release.

'This implies robust growth of approximately 41 per cent over last year," the ministry added.

Even compared to pre-pandemic year i.e. 2019-20, export for textile sector (Textiles & Apparel including Handicrafts) increased by 14.6 per cent from April- December 2021 as compared to the same period in 2019, according to the ministry.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vimal »

vijayk wrote:https://swarajyamag.com/insta/textile-s ... ember-2021
Textile sector exports increased by around 41 per cent to $29.8 billion during April-December 2021, an official release said on Wednesday (12 January).

"During April-December 2021, the total Textiles and Apparel including Handicrafts exports was $29.8 billion as compared to $21.2 billion for the same period last year,' the Ministry of Textiles said in a release.

'This implies robust growth of approximately 41 per cent over last year," the ministry added.

Even compared to pre-pandemic year i.e. 2019-20, export for textile sector (Textiles & Apparel including Handicrafts) increased by 14.6 per cent from April- December 2021 as compared to the same period in 2019, according to the ministry.
41% :eek:

How did this happen when the entire world is facing a supply crisis? Is China really hurt that bad that it cannot make anything.
Chip and car shortages are killing folks in USA.
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

vimal wrote:
41% :eek:

How did this happen when the entire world is facing a supply crisis? Is China really hurt that bad that it cannot make anything.
Chip and car shortages are killing folks in USA.

https://www.freepressjournal.in/busines ... y-up-singh
Updated on: Wednesday, September 08, 2021, 05:49 PM IST
Textiles Ministry to notify PLI scheme for MMF, technical textile sectors within a week: Secretary UP Singh
A portal is being developed for implementing the scheme, which aims at boosting domestic manufacturing and creating a world-class facility for the sector, he added.

"Tentatively, we are thinking of opening the window for the industry to apply for the scheme from November 1 to December 31. Everything will be online, like submitting applications, approval process and disbursal of incentives," Singh said.

Talking about the importance of MMF and technical textiles, he said the government is targeting to increase textiles exports to $44 billion this fiscal and $100 billion in the next five years.

There is also an aim to increase the size of the industry from $140 billion to $250 billion in the coming years, "so this growth will come not only from cotton but from MMF and technical textiles," he added.

The Union Cabinet on Wednesday approved the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme worth Rs 10,683 crore for the textiles sector.

The Cabinet has approved the PLI scheme for textiles for MMF (man-made fibre) apparel, MMF fabrics and ten segments/ products of technical textiles.

Any person, (which includes firm/company) willing to invest minimum Rs 300 crore in Plant, Machinery, Equipment and Civil Works (excluding land and administrative building cost) to produce products of Notified lines (MMF Fabrics, Garment) and products of Technical Textiles, shall be eligible to apply for participation in the first part of the scheme.

In the second part, any person, (which includes a firm/company) willing to invest a minimum of Rs 100 crore shall be eligible to apply for participation in this part of the scheme.
V_Raman
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by V_Raman »

GOI will move on full CAC once we have key industries integrated into global supply chain - like semiconductor for example...
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 411_1.html
According to the data released by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), in December, UPI recorded 4.56 billion transactions, worth Rs 8.27 trillion.

After reporting marginal dip in November, UPI transactions bounced back in December, with the volume of transactions growing at 9.09 per cent month–on-month (MoM) and value of transactions growing at 7.6 per cent. On a year–on–year basis, in December, the volume of transactions more than doubled, while the value of transactions reported 99 per cent growth.
Image
According to a report by Jeffries, in FY22, UPI accounts for 50 per cent of retail digital payments in the country and is almost 4.5x of debit and credit card transactions. The report said digital payments are annualising at $2 trillion in India, with UPI being the largest driver, followed by cards and mobile wallets.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vips »

India's forex reserves to face $256 billion overseas debt challenge in next 12 months.

India's enormous foreign exchange reserves faces its biggest test in the next 12 months as a record $256 billion of total overseas debt comes up for repayment amid a possible flight of capital due to monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

External debt worth $256 billion matures over the next 12 months, according to the September data released by the finance ministry. This is about 43 per cent of the September external debt outstanding at $596 billion.

While the reserves still top $600 billion there could be short term pressures on the currency as the RBI is likely to temper its interventions rather than defend the currency.

The recent US consumer price inflation at 7 per cent at 39 year high, the Fed might be swifter in hiking rates than earlier anticipated that could result in higher pull out of dollars from emerging markets including India. "The expectation of a rate increase by the Fed and other advanced economies is likely to accentuate capital outflow, and this is likely to put pressure on the exchange rate, current account deficit and prices" said M Govinda Rao, chief economic advisor at Brickwork Ratings.

India is still in a comfortable position with reserves adequate to fund over 12 months' imports and this short term debt is just about 40 percent of forex reserves then. " Residual debt maturity is quite manageable in the current environment both in terms of composition and given our reserve position." said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays Capital.

Though reserves position is comfortable compared to 2013, they may not grow as much, or as consistently, as they have in the last couple of years. "Of course, the impact may be less than that of the 2013 taper tantrum, but the pressure will be real," Rao said. India added only $48 billion to its stock of reserves in 2021 compared to $124 billion in 2020.

Economists are also bracing for an overall balance of payments deficit after almost twelve quarters in March'22 if capital outflows surge as the current account is expected to widen further on rising crude and commodity prices. Moreover India faces a double blow with rising funding costs as interest rates are set to rise as also higher amounts of dollar funds as the capex cycle is set to pick up

There would certainly be an impact on the way it would intervene in the forex market. "We believe the RBI may no longer continue have to absorb excess foreign currency inflows through intervention, but may at times need to sell reserves to stabilise the currency" , said Bajoria.

Corporates would be caught on the wrong foot in a situation of a volatile rupee with a downward bias, especially those who have not hedged their foreign currency exposure. " From the RBI's perspective, it could be actively monitoring hedging ratios of the corporate sector so that they are well covered" Bajoria said.

Last two years have been benign for the rupee. "But this year with greater volatility of the rupee you would want to make sure that corporates are not making losses just in case the rupee depreciates" said Rao.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by nandakumar »

Vips wrote:India's forex reserves to face $256 billion overseas debt challenge in next 12 months.

India's enormous foreign exchange reserves faces its biggest test in the next 12 months as a record $256 billion of total overseas debt comes up for repayment amid a possible flight of capital due to monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

External debt worth $256 billion matures over the next 12 months, according to the September data released by the finance ministry. This is about 43 per cent of the September external debt outstanding at $596 billion.

While the reserves still top $600 billion there could be short term pressures on the currency as the RBI is likely to temper its interventions rather than defend the currency.

The recent US consumer price inflation at 7 per cent at 39 year high, the Fed might be swifter in hiking rates than earlier anticipated that could result in higher pull out of dollars from emerging markets including India. "The expectation of a rate increase by the Fed and other advanced economies is likely to accentuate capital outflow, and this is likely to put pressure on the exchange rate, current account deficit and prices" said M Govinda Rao, chief economic advisor at Brickwork Ratings.

India is still in a comfortable position with reserves adequate to fund over 12 months' imports and this short term debt is just about 40 percent of forex reserves then. " Residual debt maturity is quite manageable in the current environment both in terms of composition and given our reserve position." said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays Capital.

Though reserves position is comfortable compared to 2013, they may not grow as much, or as consistently, as they have in the last couple of years. "Of course, the impact may be less than that of the 2013 taper tantrum, but the pressure will be real," Rao said. India added only $48 billion to its stock of reserves in 2021 compared to $124 billion in 2020.

Economists are also bracing for an overall balance of payments deficit after almost twelve quarters in March'22 if capital outflows surge as the current account is expected to widen further on rising crude and commodity prices. Moreover India faces a double blow with rising funding costs as interest rates are set to rise as also higher amounts of dollar funds as the capex cycle is set to pick up

There would certainly be an impact on the way it would intervene in the forex market. "We believe the RBI may no longer continue have to absorb excess foreign currency inflows through intervention, but may at times need to sell reserves to stabilise the currency" , said Bajoria.

Corporates would be caught on the wrong foot in a situation of a volatile rupee with a downward bias, especially those who have not hedged their foreign currency exposure. " From the RBI's perspective, it could be actively monitoring hedging ratios of the corporate sector so that they are well covered" Bajoria said.

Last two years have been benign for the rupee. "But this year with greater volatility of the rupee you would want to make sure that corporates are not making losses just in case the rupee depreciates" said Rao.
The story gives the impression that it is something extraordinary. It gives the impression that short term debt has suddenly ballooned up. It is nothing of that sort. The external debt with one year or less of residual at $256 billion is not significantly higher than last year which stood at $248 billion. Indeed when measured against reserves the latest number would be if anything a lesser proportion than last year.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... aign=cppst
Credit offtake from scheduled commercial banks to MSME sectors surge: CMIE
Offtake of credit from scheduled commercial banks to medium, micro and small industrial enterprises has zoomed in recent months on the back of the government’s emergency credit line guarantee scheme (ECLGS), the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy said.

“The take-off is sudden and it is relatively big and the only set of enterprises to see an increase in bank loans are medium, micro and small enterprises,” CMIE said in its weekly analysis.

According to CMIE, these enterprises have largely, or possibly almost entirely, benefited from the central government’s Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme (ECLGS), launched in November 2020.

ECLGS loans are top-up loans to help existing business enterprises overcome their difficulties arising out of lockdowns and other pandemic related ill-effects.The scope of the scheme was enhanced in November 2020, March 2021 and May 2021. Till November 2021, Rs 2.9 lakh crore was sanctioned under the scheme
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 883041.cms
India's economy recovery on 'solid path' amid rapid vaccination progress, forecast to grow 6.5 per cent in FY 2022: UN
India is forecast to grow at 6.5 per cent in fiscal year 2022, a decline from the 8.4 per cent GDP estimate in previous financial year, and while the country's economic recovery is on a "solid path" amid rapid vaccination progress, coal shortages and high oil prices could put the brakes on economic activity in the near term, the UN said on Thursday.

The flagship United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2022 report, launched here, said that India's GDP is forecast to grow at 6.5 per cent in fiscal year 2022, a contraction from the estimated growth of 8.4 per cent in fiscal year 2021.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

nandakumar wrote:
Vips wrote:India's forex reserves to face $256 billion overseas debt challenge in next 12 months.

India's enormous foreign exchange reserves faces its biggest test in the next 12 months as a record $256 billion of total overseas debt comes up for repayment amid a possible flight of capital due to monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
The story gives the impression that it is something extraordinary. It gives the impression that short term debt has suddenly ballooned up. It is nothing of that sort. The external debt with one year or less of residual at $256 billion is not significantly higher than last year which stood at $248 billion. Indeed when measured against reserves the latest number would be if anything a lesser proportion than last year.
In fact, the debt is owed by private entities for the most part. It is not sovereign debt or sovereign backed debt, which is a different thing altogether. It is up to the entities to hedge their currencies and ensure that sufficient forex is available to pay back the loans. While there may be some downward pressure on the rupee unless they can rollover their debt, there is zero chance of a balance of payments situation let alone BoP crisis. RBI can choose to regulate issuance of forex at will, and while that may make things a little troublesome for the borrower, it shields the public from effects of huge currency fluctuations.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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kit
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

why did women workforce fell from 32% to 20% starting 2006/2007 timeframe?

Is it something to do with MNREGA?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/szarabi/status/1483089511026663425
Siddharth Zarabi
@szarabi
More than Tesla, it is Starlink that is the real 'challenge' for Elon Musk in India.

The satellite broadband service backed by Musk took 7000-odd bookings in India, without a mandatory license.

Starlink is now having to refund the $99 fee it charged each person in India.

1/2
Siddharth Zarabi
@szarabi
·
2h
Replying to
@szarabi
Starlink was targeting an April rollout and 200,000 subs in India by Dec 22.

The co seems to have been in a tearing hurry - registering in India only on Nov 1, 21.

It was to apply for a license from DoT only by this Jan end!

So, why take pre-orders in a regulated market?

2/3
Siddharth Zarabi
@szarabi
·
2h
The run-in with DoT and the loss of brand reputation with Indian consumers even before launch has had its consequences.

Sanjay Bhargava, head and one of the 2 Directors of the Indian unit, quit w.e.f Dec 31, in <4 months of joining.

But, pre-orders seem to be a Musk thing!

3/4
Image
Siddharth Zarabi
@szarabi
·
2h
Giddy (in their own words) buyers in India forked out $1000 for Model3 pre-orders.

This within hours of an Elon tweet in April 2016.

Over 6 years have passed since.

Indian & foreign auto cos are selling Made-in-India EV's.

Meanwhile, Elon is busy with 'challenges'.....

4/4
Image
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by ManuJ »

vijayk wrote:why did women workforce fell from 32% to 20% starting 2006/2007 timeframe?

Is it something to do with MNREGA?
I had the same question after watching the video.
MGNREGA has consistently seen women participation at above 50% (though there's a small downward trend) so I can't imagine that's the reason.
The sharp drop post-2006 is hard to digest.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vayutuvan »

kit wrote:[youtube...]aKNPP8nwD_E[/youtube]
kit garu, could you please summarize the video?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »



interesting talk. at 28 min ... she talks about UPA and NDA differences
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

ManuJ wrote:
vijayk wrote:why did women workforce fell from 32% to 20% starting 2006/2007 timeframe?

Is it something to do with MNREGA?
I had the same question after watching the video.
MGNREGA has consistently seen women participation at above 50% (though there's a small downward trend) so I can't imagine that's the reason.
The sharp drop post-2006 is hard to digest.
https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/publi ... 250977.pdf
Conclusions and policy recommendations
This paper has attempted to shed light on the causes behind the recent sharp decline in female labour
force participation in India, paradoxically coinciding with a period of rapid economic growth, and to
identify factors underpinning the long-term stagnation in female participation. Through an examination
of labour market trends, a series of scenario exercises, and econometric analysis, we have analysed four
prominent hypotheses of the root causes of declining female participation, including women’s increased
attendance in educational institutions, increased household income, changes in measurement
methodology across survey rounds and insufficient job opportunities for women, stemming from factors
such as social status and occupational segregation.

In our scenario exercises, we estimate that the effects of increased education and higher levels of
household consumption together accounted for around 18 per cent of the total decline in female
participation between 2005 and 2010. We estimate that around 42 per cent of the decline in female
participation was due to a general lack of employment opportunities for women and other factors, while
changes in measurement methodology between survey rounds accounted for the remaining 40 per cent
of the observed decline. Over the full 1994-2010 period, we estimate that increased education and
household consumption levels accounted for 38 per cent of decline in female participation, with
diminished employment opportunities and other factors contributing the remaining 62 per cent.
The econometric results indicate that religion and social perceptions of women, women’s level of
education, household size and income, and the presence of young children in the household all influence
the likelihood of India’s women to participate in the labour market. We find that structural
characteristics in the labour market have played a more important role than changes in the underlying
characteristics of the female working-age population in influencing participation rates. These structural
barriers, such as norms that inhibit women’s labour market options, in conjunction with a consistent
decline in agricultural employment, are likely to be key factors in explaining the long-term stagnation
in female participation rates.


Indeed, we find that a multitude of factors have contributed to the recent, sharp decline and long-term
stagnation in labour force participation rates among India’s working-age women. Some of these factors,
such as increased attendance in education and higher household income levels, are without doubt a net
positive for society and a reflection of India’s rapid economic development. The largest issue over the
long-run, however, has been a lack of employment opportunities for India’s women.
Persistent
informality and slow growth in wage and salaried employment are limiting employment prospects of
both women and men in the labour market. But India’s women have additional disadvantages stemming
from social norms, including gender-based discrimination and occupational segregation. These findings
point to large potential benefits from policies aimed at reducing occupational segregation in India such
as discouraging discriminatory employment practices and promoting skills development for women in
industries and occupations with the greatest potential for employment growth. Further analytical work
in this area is clearly needed.

As measurement issues also appear to have played a role in changes in female participation estimates
across survey rounds, our findings indicate a need for a careful investigation by the NSSO into
measurement of female activities, particularly with regard to difficulties in differentiating between
domestic duties and contributing family work. Reliable measurement, including the design of further
time use surveys, across future survey rounds will be essential for the design of policies and programmes
to enhance employment opportunities for India’s women.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1483 ... 85891.html
Rajeev Mantri
@RMantri
In November 2020, a journalist wrote a piece titled "Why I Am Losing Hope In India". The screed was shared widely by the usual suspects, offering an extremely negative prognosis on how the India story might be on its last legs.
Image

goes on to show all the nonsense predicted by this moron
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ujBJvZNa_5M



Press conference by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman: Antrix Devas fraud and arbitration in light of the SC judgments...



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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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kit
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

Vayutuvan wrote:
kit wrote:[youtube...]aKNPP8nwD_E[/youtube]
kit garu, could you please summarize the video?
The video is comparing the developmental pathways of China and India and how it would be more different in Indias case. For one, low cost manufacturing is increasingly replaced by robots and mass manufacturing processes., for India this is a different opportunity.

Also the interesting question about customs duties for a variety of materials currently being imported but important in manufacturing value added products, some examples given. GOI needs to examine such cases and give priority so that value addition happens in the country.

Another interesting comparison with the Beedis and Vietnam. , and how the beedis got their act together in some niche areas, India lagging behind , as reforms are still going on., but the gap will certainly narrow and can be done.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

The recent news about coir exports from India and increasingly profited by China by means of value addition is moot point. Here it is not the absence of industrial capability but rather of policies
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://www.freepressjournal.in/busines ... ember-siam
Passenger vehicle exports from India rise by 46% in April-December: SIAM
Maruti Suzuki India led the segment during the period, led by Hyundai Motor India and Kia India at the second and third positions, respectively.

Passenger car shipments saw 45 per cent growth at 2,75,728 units, while utility vehicle exports gained 47 per cent at 1,46,688 units during the period, according to Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers data.

The data said that export of vans nearly doubled to 1,621 units in April-December 2021-22 as against 877 units in the same period last fiscal year.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 127_1.html
In landmark reform for foreign fund, India to open $1 trn govt bond market
Policy makers have spent months preparing to join global indexes, key benchmarks that increasingly determine how large asset managers allocate their capital
India is inching toward a major milestone: opening its $1 trillion government bond market to more international investors, one of the most ambitious attempts to attract foreign inflows since the country liberalized its economy three decades ago.
Policy makers have spent months preparing to join global indexes, key benchmarks that increasingly determine how large asset managers allocate their capital. And now, after a series of fits and starts, analysts expect the world’s last big emerging market to finally get the nod this year or early 2023 by providers such as JPMorgan Chase & Co. and FTSE Russell.

Entry into major indexes is a step change for India, which has long lagged behind peers like Brazil and South Africa in tapping global financial markets. Foreign investors hold only about 2% of all outstanding government securities and the country’s central bank has historically been averse to large debt inflows.

But inclusion may finally make India a hot ticket for capital: In the three years since China was added to global indexes, foreign ownership of the nation’s government bonds rose to almost 11%, up from 7.6%, leading to a boost in confidence in its fixed-income market and internationalization of the yuan.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Cyrano
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

Excellent analysis Suraj.

I feel India can move up the value chain if it can align 3 ducks : A robust banking system that can help increase Capex, a high skilled workforce in targeted segments and increased R&D spend.

Attracting more FDI can help with the first. Other industries can learn from how our IT & ITES sector dealt with skills development. But there are no easy solutions to get Indian industry to increase R&D spend.

There is of course a lot to do to improve "ease of exporting" in terms of reducing administrative hurdles.

It can only get better from here.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by VinodTK »

Times of India

India takes on China, Vietnam in electronics manufacturing; eyes $300 billion in local production by FY26
NEW DELHI: India's counter-attack on China and Vietnam in manufacturing of electronics is set to get additional fire-power.

On target is $300 billion in output over the next four years, including $120 billion reserved for exports; broadening of product-basket for incentives; specially crafted large industrial zones with modern facilities; and permissions for factories that may hold up to as many as 1 lakh workers with dormitories, kitchens, medical set-ups, and housing complexes.

The plan is to give scale to electronics manufacturing set up that would ultimately lead to creation of strong supplier eco-system, massive employment opportunities, and global servicing.
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disha
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by disha »

Excellent analysis Suraj. The replies to your article itself indicate the same.

Regarding policy prescriptions, instead of putting it in the same article, you can mention that the policy prescriptions from your perspective will come up in a later article. Since your last few paras were rushed and felt thin (partly because of the excellent exhaustive sections prior).

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At this very moment, I have sunk a significant chunk of my savings in supporting a company that is planning to manufacture personal air purifier products in B-Towns of India. The challenge is immense since there is no eco-system of manufacturing goods in several B-Towns across India and two the entire supply chain is dependent on China. Of course, the design-linked semiconductor PLI will be of help (since one does not require 10 NM fabs for such chips), even 350 NM will do. And then custom fabrication of system on chips and other electronic circuits and items for a small manufacturer. But it is still far into future.

The point is your prescription to target consumer goods is very right. Particularly not significant-tech, high volume, low price consumer goods. Given the prescription, how one can create the medicine? That is a challenge. For example, given the EV scooters that will be manufactured in India, how many of them will have LCD screens manufactured in India and not imported from China? LED head and tail lights? Bluetooth circuits? Ordinary or bespoke speakers? To cite an example.

Will it be possible for you to analyze a vertical (and I can give you information on personal air purifier as a product and the parts that go into it) and come up with a policy prescription that can be enabled by PLI? It can be TVs. Or speakers. Or home monitoring service products. Or even leather products (why not a PLI for ahimsa leather?).
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by m_saini »

Great article indeed! I loved this graph, shows exactly where we're lacking.

Image
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

disha wrote:
Excellent analysis Suraj. The replies to your article itself indicate the same.

Regarding policy prescriptions, instead of putting it in the same article, you can mention that the policy prescriptions from your perspective will come up in a later article. Since your last few paras were rushed and felt thin (partly because of the excellent exhaustive sections prior).
Yes there was a lot of ground to cover and it was just getting untenably long, so I decided to split it off. There are more parts TBD.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by bharathp »

Suraj ji, my compliments on an excellent, well written article that explains complex concepts in simple way. I enjoyed reading it.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by nandakumar »

disha
A question arising from your comment on Suraj's article. What exactly is the demand for air purifiers? I thought it is something that people in Delhi use perhaps in increasing numbers. But outside of key Metros? I don't know.
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