Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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V_Raman
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by V_Raman »

Latest NaMo statement on privatization: "Government has no business to be in business" :D
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Uttam »

I agree that the govt. has used this tax revenue very wisely. Without the food subsidy, we would've been looking at a famine of the proportion seen only during the "Raj". I also agree that India was able to do all of that without running a budget deficit to an unsustainable level.

My comment is only in relation to competitive advantage in the global marketplace. Transportation cost is a function of road-rail-port infrastructure as well as fuel and labor. India currently has an advantage only in terms of labor costs. Work is being done to improve road-rail-port infrastructure, but we are still a couple of years away to realize the significant benefits of it. Reduction in fuel taxes can reduce the disadvantage Indian manufacturers face due to elevated transportation costs.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Yes, since Budget 2021-22, the government has been telegraphing a level of resolve to get our of the business of running business and to privatize, in a manner no government in India has ever done before. It seems they see the V-shaped recovery process as an opportune moment to jettison state managed control of the economy and to monetize or privatize PSUs as much as they can. Credit to them for grabbing the opportunity, and I hope that like PLI they have a good plan to execute this .

Uttam: yes, the government acted with alacrity to defuse what might otherwise have been a humanitarian disaster. We see very little about the free ration program, as opposed to all the handwringing or labour migrating. Very little negative news after that initial spate of commentary, suggesting the food program was effectively executed.

The point about global competitiveness is well taken. If there was any time when that wasn't much of a big deal, than was when the global economy had imploded. Now that it's reviving, yes I agree the government should cut fuel taxes, particularly because they're intent on driving growth now and they don't want to do that with their shoelaces tied together in the form of high fuel prices.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by bharathp »

Uttam wrote: My comment is only in relation to competitive advantage in the global marketplace. Transportation cost is a function of road-rail-port infrastructure as well as fuel and labor. India currently has an advantage only in terms of labor costs. Work is being done to improve road-rail-port infrastructure, but we are still a couple of years away to realize the significant benefits of it. Reduction in fuel taxes can reduce the disadvantage Indian manufacturers face due to elevated transportation costs.
the petrol prices are high, but using DFC and electrified trains will reduce the cost of transportation. this is a way to incentivize usage of trains and thus incentivise usage of both DFC as well as alternate fuels.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Ambar »

High fuel prices and inflation is just one component hampering our competitive advantage globally. There are some fundamental issues which needs to be addressed if we are to grow more competitive and increase our exports . I often hear the argument that RBI is keeping the rupee weak to help the exporters, then i look at the export growth chart for the last 20 yrs and see a continuous decline in export growth rate, even discounting covid it is today half of what it was in the early 2000s. Then there is the question of utilization of capital, in a country starved for capital one would think we are judicious in using it but that's not the case. The incremental capital to output ratio has deteriorated from 3.8 in 2016-17 to 4.9 in 2018-19 and is expected to to 6.9 in 2019-20. It is becoming more and more expensive to drive growth.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

The fuel tax add ons were done during the height of the Covid lockdown last year. It wasn't a big deal then because economic activity dropped off a cliff and so did Brent/WTI and crude prices in general. The government took advantage to full up SPRs at rock bottom prices. Now that crude has spiked due to supply problems associated with the supplies from the Permian basin freezing up, Texas weather issues, and also OPEC cutting production, consumer costs have also risen to a higher level. As these supply issues recede, fuel prices will decline, and I am guessing that's when the government will cut some of the add on taxes from last years Covid increases, since the GST receipts from increased business activity will make up for it.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

PLI Scheme extended to Active Pharma Ingredients (API) for pharmaceutical production:
Rs 15,000 Crore PLI Scheme For Pharmaceutical Companies That Aims To Achieve 'Atmanirbharta' In APIs And High-End Medicines
The Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday (24 February) approved a Rs 15,000 crore Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme to promote domestic manufacturing of high value products in pharmaceutical sector.

The PLI scheme for Pharmaceuticals will implemented over a period of eight years - from financial year 2020-21 to 2028-29. The government will incentivise the producer firms by paying anywhere between 5 to 10 per cent of the the yearly incremental output based on the category of pharmaceutical product.

While Indian pharmaceutical industry is 3rd largest in the world by volume and is worth USD 40 billion in terms of value and contributes 3.5 per cent of total drugs and medicines exported globally, it is mostly low value generic drugs that account for the major component of Indian exports. A large proportion of the domestic demand for patented drugs is still met through imports. The import dependence is due to Indian Pharmaceutical lacking capability in high value production along with the necessary pharma R&D.

The PLI scheme for pharmaceutical sector is aimed at incentivising the global and domestic players to enhance investment and production in diversified product categories including specific high value goods such as bio-pharmaceuticals, complex generic drugs, patented drugs or drugs nearing patent expiry and cell based or gene therapy products etc.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Uttam »

India’s average ship turnaround time at major ports improves
The average turnaround time for ships at major ports in India has reduced by 35 percent over the last six years, indicating a significant improvement in the country’s port management infrastructure.
.........
Ships’ average turnaround at the country’s major ports fell from 4 days in 2014-15 to 2.59 days in 2019-20, according to the Economic Survey 2020-21
..........

“As per the latest UNCTAD data, the median ship turnaround time globally is 0.97 days, suggesting that India has room to further improve upon the efficiency at ports,” the Economic Survey said.
This should be another very important agenda item for GoI.

Here is more data about shipping. BTW, China's container ship turnaround time is 0.6 days, and India's is 0.91 days.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Just as the GDP drop estimates for this year are being reduced, growth projections for next year are being increased:
Moody's revises 2020-21 drop to -7%, increases 2021-22 GDP growth estimate to 13.7%
The Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 13.7 per cent in FY’22, registering a strong rebound from a 7 per cent contraction this fiscal, on the back of normalisation of activity and growing confidence in the market with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccine, Moody’s Investors Service said on Thursday.

Moody’s had in November last year projected Indian economy to contract 10.6 per cent in the current fiscal and return to growth of 10.8 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal.
Pretty much everyone - RBI, FinMin and now Moody's - is converging on negative 6-7% for this year. That's a good thing. Maybe actual numbers may turn out even better if Q4 (Jan-Mar 2021) performance is better than anticipated. But the really notable thing is the rising estimate for next year on top of the reduced degrowth figures this year. 10% after -10% is a shallow bounce, not even making up for the drop. Almost 14% gain on -7% is 6% over the pre-drop figure, a very substantial V shaped performance.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Shanmukh »

Suraj wrote:Just as the GDP drop estimates for this year are being reduced, growth projections for next year are being increased:
Moody's revises 2020-21 drop to -7%, increases 2021-22 GDP growth estimate to 13.7%
The Indian economy is expected to clock a growth of 13.7 per cent in FY’22, registering a strong rebound from a 7 per cent contraction this fiscal, on the back of normalisation of activity and growing confidence in the market with the rollout of COVID-19 vaccine, Moody’s Investors Service said on Thursday.

Moody’s had in November last year projected Indian economy to contract 10.6 per cent in the current fiscal and return to growth of 10.8 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal.
Pretty much everyone - RBI, FinMin and now Moody's - is converging on negative 6-7% for this year. That's a good thing. Maybe actual numbers may turn out even better if Q4 (Jan-Mar 2021) performance is better than anticipated. But the really notable thing is the rising estimate for next year on top of the reduced degrowth figures this year. 10% after -10% is a shallow bounce, not even making up for the drop. Almost 14% gain on -7% is 6% over the pre-drop figure, a very substantial V shaped performance.
Suraj-saar,
The growth mentioned there is the real growth, correct? Not the nominal growth that is affected by currency valuation, inflation, etc? So, all in all, the nominal growth, should be rising ~17-18%?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Uttam »

Shanmukh wrote:
Suraj-saar,
The growth mentioned there is the real growth, correct? Not the nominal growth that is affected by currency valuation, inflation, etc? So, all in all, the nominal growth, should be rising ~17-18%?
Replying on behalf of Suraj. Yes, these are real growth estimates. Inflation is likely to be on the higher side, probably around 6%, resulting in a nominal growth of over 20.3% (=1.135 * 1.06 - 1)
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Yes correct all these are real growth numbers so in nominal terms the numbers should be more. I should have been clearer about that . Thanks to Uttam for answering it .
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Uttam »

NHAI daily toll collection through FASTag reaches record ₹104 crore

A very important benefit of electronic toll collection through FASTag:
This will enable correct valuation of road asset in the future and will encourage more investors to invest in the Highway infrastructure of the country.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by arshyam »

So the numbers are out...

Indian Economy Rebounds From COVID Contractions, GDP Grows At 0.4 Per Cent In Third Quarter Of FY21 - Swarajya
In the first signs of an incipient recovery for its pandemic battered economy, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the third quarter (Q3) ending December 2020 stood at 0.4 per cent as against contraction of 23.9 per cent and 7.5 per cent in the first and second quarters ending June and September 2020 respectively.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Official CSO report on 3Q performance and second national advance estimate (PDF)
Current AE is -8% in real terms (Statement 1, line 3) and -3.8% in nominal terms (Statement 2, line 3)

Statement 3 reveals the sectors most impacted:
1. Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services : -18%
2. Construction : -10%
3. Manufacturing: -8.3%
All these should pick up next fiscal.

Statement 5 is a great quarterly GVA picture of which sectors are picking up and which are further behind.
1. Manufacturing has already turned positive in Q3
2. Mining has remaining negative around -5 to -7% for two quarters now
3. Trade/hotels/transport/comm/services has improved from -15% to -7%
4. Financial/Real Estate/Professional Srvs has gone from -9.9% to +6.0 between Q2/Q3

By Q4, probably only mining will be in negative territory, suggesting that Q4 numbers will be good.

Karan Bhasin's take on the Q3 numbers - a lot more detailed
R Jagannathan: GDP Back In Black In Q3: Despite Some Blips, The Covid Recession Is Behind Us
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Prasad »

Travel related sector like tourism should pickup once vaccine roll out begins next month. Right on time for summer vacation fir kids too.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Ambar »

Depends on what we consider "travel" , most resorts, homestays, cabins have been overbooked since mid-summer. The record car sales we've been seeing is driven by pent up demand as well as people buying cars to avoid public transportation. I wish we had some toll traffic numbers but i expect it to have been much higher than 2019. Restaurants too are humming especially the takeouts, and anyone who has been to the airports will know air travel has exploded thanks to railways still not functioning 100%. I think the worst hit are the hotels , bus operators, restaurants and hotels that serve rail travelers and caterers serving offices, others in the hospitality industry are doing better than ever .
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Yagnasri »

There will be some changes in the habits of consumers due to long homestay periods of COVID. That is given. So the service sector recovery may be positively or negatively affected due to the same.

Not just the service sector, work from home may be far more cost-effective for many, particularly to the IT sector, and as a result, commercial real estate and even real estate in the cities get effected.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Uttam »

Healthy growth for port volumes in January
Major ports’ volumes grew by 4.4% y-y (+1.5% m-m) in Jan 2021, led by strong growth in container volumes (+6.4% y-y in tonnage terms) and POL volumes (up 3.1% y-y, the first month of y-y growth since Feb’20).
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

FPIs remain bullish, invest Rs.23663 cr ($3.3 billion) in February
In total, the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out a net sum of Rs 2,124 crore from the bond markets, while investing Rs 25,787 crore in the equity markets taking the net value to Rs 23,663 crore.

It should be noted that February marks the second consecutive months of net FPI inflows into Indian markets for the new calendar year.

In January the FPIs were net buyers with net investment of Rs 14,649 crore in Indian equity and bond markets. The momentum gained further strength following the announcement of third-quarter earnings by India Inc and the presentation of the Union Budget 2021-22 announced by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.
Elsewhere, January was the first month ever when Indian steel output exceeded 10 million tonnes. For comparison, Japan produces 8MT, US produced 7MT and EU (27 countries) combined to produce 12.2MT. Just a matter of 2-3 years before Indian steel output exceeds combined EU output.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Uttam »

GST collection in February tops Rs 1 lakh crore; 7% increase from the year-ago month
Revenue collection crossed Rs 1 lakh crore for the fifth time in a row and crossed Rs 1.1 lakh crore-mark for the third time in a row post pandemic, the department of revenue said Monday.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Uttam »

Govt has generated over Rs 77,000 crore from auction vs Rs 45,000 expected: Ravi Shankar Prasad
India is auctioning 2,251.25 megahertz (MHz) of 4G airwaves valued at Rs 3.92 lakh crore up at base price. On sale are seven bands - 700 MHz, 800 MHz, 900 MHz, 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz, 2300 MHz and 2500 MHz bands – with experts predicting that the government would net a maximum upto Rs50,000 crore, with Jio expected to be the most aggressive of the three and Vodafone Idea the least.

The current auction does not include frequencies in 3,300-3,600 Mhz bands that were identified for 5G services, which will happen later.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Railway freight loading up 10% in February
Indian Railways loaded 112.25 million tonnes (MT) of cargo in February, which is almost 10 per cent higher compared to 102.21 MT of loading (recorded up to February 28) of last year.

“As last year was a leap year, Railways compared data of 28 days this February against the 28 days of 2020 instead of the 29-day full month,” explained an official.

In January 2021, Railways loaded 119.79 million tonnes.

Indian Railways earned ₹11,096.89 crore from freight services during the month under review, which is 7.7 per cent higher, as against ₹10,305.02 crore earned in the same time last year, stated a release. As on February 28, freight loaded by Indian Railways was also higher than last year’s cumulative freight loading for the same period.
Manufacturing PMI strong at 57.5 in February
Expansion in India’s manufacturing activity, as tracked by the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), declined marginally to 57.5 in February from 57.7 in January 2021. The headline figure remained above the long-run average of 53.6.

The country's manufacturing sector activity climbed to a near eight-year high in January, driven by sharp rise in new business orders amid a rebound in demand conditions that led to rise in production and hiring activity.
From GST collection to car sales, macro data signals steady recovery
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vadivel »

How has Modi govt's Nal Se Jal scheme fared on the ground?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

It doesn't look like that mid-February update by PIB announcing trade data up to January was posted here:
INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE FOR JANUARY 2021
Image
Overall, the YTD performance appears to be driven by large drops in consumer discretionary products (e.g. gems and jewelry), textiles and refined petroleum exports. Industrial and chemical goods, which are among the biggest components of exports, hasn't fallen much and in fact their growth is increasing now.
Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in January 2021 were USD22.44Billion, as compared to USD19.79Billion in January2020, registering a positive growth of 13.40per cent. Non-petroleum and Non-Gems and Jewellery exports in April-January 2020-21 were USD188.77Billion, as compared to USD197.94Billion for the corresponding period in 2019-20, which is a decrease of (-) 4.63 per cent.
Electronic exports cross pre COVID levels, touch record 8806cr in December
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

With $4.9 billion inflows so far in 2021, India continues to attract FPIs
With the level of Covid-19 infections tapering off and the economy recovering faster than expected, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) continue to buy into Indian equities. With inflows of $4.9 billion so far in 2021, India is among the favourite emerging markets so far this year. While Brazil and Indonesia have received inflows of $3.2 billion and $1 billion respectively, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan have seen outflows.
GST mop-up at Rs 1.13L crore in February
Gross goods and services tax (GST) collections came in at Rs 1,13,143 crore in February, 7% higher than in the year-ago month, official data showed on Monday, indicating that a recent surge in transactions in the economy was sustained through January.

From a monthly low of just over Rs 32,000 crore in April 2020, the collections had gradually picked up; since September 2020, the mop-up has been higher than the year-ago levels and for the last five months, the revenues have been above the Rs 1-lakh-crore mark.
GST collections top Rs 1 lakh crore for 5 months in a row, rise 7% in February
GST collections crossed the Rs 1 lakh crore-mark for the fifth month in a row in February, rising 7 per cent annually to over Rs 1.13 lakh crore, indicating economic recovery, the finance ministry said on Monday. Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections had risen for two straight months to touch record Rs 1,19,875 crore in January and Rs 1.15 lakh crore in December.

The gross GST revenue collected February 2021 is Rs 1,13,143 crore, of which Central GST is Rs 21,092 crore, State GST is Rs 27,273 crore, Integrated GST is Rs 55,253 crore (including Rs 24,382 crore collected on import of goods) and Cess is Rs 9,525 crore (including Rs 660 crore collected on import of goods).
Services PMI rises to 55.3 in February on boom in domestic demand
India's services activity expanded at the fastest rate in a year during February, while employment fell further and companies noted the sharpest rise in overall expenses, a monthly survey said on Wednesday.

The seasonally adjusted India Services Business Activity Index rose from 52.8 in January to 55.3 in February, pointing to the sharpest rate of expansion in output in a year amid improved demand and more favourable market conditions.
Warehousing demand likely to grow 160% to reach 35 mn sq ft in 2021: Report
Warehousing demand is expected to grow around 160 per cent to reach 35 million square feet in 2021, if no further lockdowns occur, said a JLL report.

Despite unfavourable socio-economic environment, warehousing stock in top eight cities, including NCR-Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Pune, Kolkata, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad has added 27 million square feet to reach a total of 238 million square feet in 2020 as per the 'India Real Estate Outlook - A new growth cycle' by JLL.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Mollick.R »

Amazon, Google, Facebook vie for piece of India’s digital payments market
By Saritha Rai, BloombergLast Updated: Mar 03, 2021, 05:55 PM IST

Technology giants Facebook Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Google and credit-card providers Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. are among those vying for unprecedented access to India’s burgeoning digital retail payments market.

The companies are part of four consortia preparing to apply for licenses to operate retail payments and settlement systems in the country, people familiar with the matter said. More companies could band together before a March 31 application deadline.
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Group-1 One of the consortia consists of Amazon, Visa, Indian retail banks ICICI Bank Ltd. and Axis Bank Ltd NSE -1.60 %. as well as fintech startups Pine Labs and BillDesk.

Group-2 Another group is led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries Ltd NSE -1.16 %. and its partners Facebook and Alphabet Inc.’s Google,


Group-3 Sharma’s Paytm heads a group that includes ride-hailing startup Ola and at least five other companies.

Group-4 The fourth consortium consists of Tata Group, Mastercard, telecom operator Bharti Airtel Ltd. and retail banks Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. and HDFC Bank Ltd.


https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 312380.cms
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by durairaaj »

I don't understand the RBI's decision in not allowing Govt's bank's participation in creation of NUE license, an alternative mechanism to UPI pay.

The Government is trying to privatise PSU banks. But RBI is preventing them from NUE license.
By being a partner in NUE the PSU banks could improve their valuation, which will help govt getting more value during dilution of its share holding.
By preventing PSU banks RBI is sabotaging Govt's gains during privatization of banks.

SBI isn’t giving up on NUE licence yet
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by bharathp »


modi on PLI
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by V_Raman »

No one is going to buy these banks - they are the next Air India(s) in the making. Sorry to be pessimistic. Public Sector banks is a giant headache.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Yagnasri »

Most of these banks are listed in stock market sir. Many are quoted good prices. While few are in bad condition, most of them are in good condition. Not very best but good. They are not making any loss. There is no comparison between them and Air India.

PS: I worked for many PSU bank for over the last two decades and also dealt with Air India.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

1. Ford's India plans are in flux, with the Mahindra tie-up announcement and then deciding to go it alone; not sure if that is influencing buyers; regardless it's a small decrease in numbers
2. VW + Skoda are the same company; basically rebadged cars, so their counts should be added up, in which case overall it is green.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Ambar »

Yagnasri wrote:Most of these banks are listed in stock market sir. Many are quoted good prices. While few are in bad condition, most of them are in good condition. Not very best but good. They are not making any loss. There is no comparison between them and Air India.

PS: I worked for many PSU bank for over the last two decades and also dealt with Air India.
The merging of good banks with bad ones is precisely because of this reason, to make them relatively healthy. That said our public sector banks have something like 12 lakh crores in NPAs (or about 180 billion USD) , i remember we are no.2 or no.3 in the world when it comes to loan to NPA ratio. Also, unlike Air India, many politicians may not want to sell the banks else how will they force the banks to lend their benaami companies hundreds of crores in loans or have banks write off thousands of crores in farm loans ?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Yagnasri »

Political leaders may not be the sole reasons for NPAs. In fact private sector banks are also not that healthy. The main reason is the inability to do proper credit appraisal and also fear of prosecution in case of any account become NPA. The idea that all NPAs are some how due to criminal conduct of the bankers and the borrowers is also damaging the banking sector.

Indian corporate houses also need to be more professionalized which will help better management of the finances and thereby reduce NPAs.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Adrija »

Upfront disclaimer: this is not a defense of Indian business houses

Also, a slightly long post
Political leaders may not be the sole reasons for NPAs. In fact private sector banks are also not that healthy. The main reason is the inability to do proper credit appraisal and also fear of prosecution in case of any account become NPA. The idea that all NPAs are some how due to criminal conduct of the bankers and the borrowers is also damaging the banking sector.

Indian corporate houses also need to be more professionalized which will help better management of the finances and thereby reduce NPAs.
I personally think it is a bit more complicated- it is quite likely that ever since Indira's time, *NO* domestic business in India (i.e. supplying to the domestic market and not exports) has actually really made money/ positive EVA THROUGH operational efficiency. Profits have mostly been on account of cheap inputs (minerals), AND/ OR by the taxpayer through bank loans being embezzled. So Indian industry basically made money through sweetheart deals between themselves, Indian bureaucrats and politicians for either bank credit, or low factor inputs, with the Indian taxpayer left holding the can.

That was Indira's actual and true legacy

What NaMo did early in his first term- either by design or accident- was to plug the loot at the input level (by IBC, auction of resources, and stricter bank lending etc), but did not stop the factors which were destroying value. So all of a sudden input prices rose to "legitimate" levels , and embezzlements stopped (through banks, IBC etc), while prices of finished good remained the same low India levels. So the lack of competitiveness and complete absence of genuine profitability/ value add became exposed.

But government levies and laws (taxation and levies, labour restrictions, etc) - which was a major factor in that value destruction/ diversion- remained the same. So no wonder that what is termed as "industry surplus" which then drives investment dried up completely and hence the private sector was unable to invest at all........ which is why the gross investments by private just collapsed over the 2015-2018 levels

The reforms brought about by NaMo in 2020 are revolutionary in that aspect- taxation has come down to competitive levels, labour and capital productivity shackles have been removed (though the labour reform and IBC), and logistics etc has become/ is becoming far far better

The true and historic nature of these reforms, and the radically positive implications, I feel have still not been fully grasped by the nation and even the corporate sector-

Hopefully indian private sector will now start becoming EVA positive, and these surpluses will over the next few years become a driver of growth. An additional side outcome would be the general increase in competitive intensity (through leveling of the playing field and winners being decided on the market battlefield rather than through extraneous considerations, which would lead to emergence of a stronger ecosystem longer term

There are still two shackles left and I am hoping Modi government will address those as well soon- power and contract enforcement....... but I must confess that there seems to be no encouraging movement on either of those two fronts
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Govt nets Rs.53346 cr from Vivad se Vishwas Scheme up to Feb 22
The government has realised Rs 53,346 crore through direct tax dispute resolution scheme Vivad Se Vishwas till February 22, Parliament was informed on Monday.

To a query in the Lok Sabha on whether the government has been able to achieve the objective of settling income tax cases after launching the Vivad se Vishwas scheme, Minister of State for Finance Anurag Singh Thakur said, “Yes”.

He said over 1.28 lakh declarations have been filed under the scheme involving a disputed tax of Rs 98,328 crore. Of this, Rs 53,346 crore has been received as payments against disputed tax.

This include Rs 27,720 crore worth payments made by the central public sector undertakings (PSUs), Rs 1,023 crore by state PSUs, and Rs 24,603 crore by others.

The Vivad Se Vishwas scheme provides for settlement of disputed tax, disputed interest, disputed penalty or disputed fees in relation to an assessment or reassessment order. The dispute is settled on payment of 100 per cent of the disputed tax and 25 per cent of the disputed penalty or interest or fee.

The taxpayer is granted immunity from levy of interest, penalty and institution of any proceeding for prosecution for any offence under the Income Tax Act in respect of matters covered in the declaration.

The Direct Tax Vivad se Vishwas Act, 2020, was enacted on March 17, 2020 to settle direct tax disputes locked up in various appellate forum.
Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana: More than 50% account holders under PMJDY women, says FinMin
As of February 24, 2021, 23.21 crore accounts, out of the total 41.93 crore accounts opened under the PMJDY scheme, belong to women account holders, the ministry said in a statement.

With regard to the Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana (PMMY), it said, about 68 per cent or 19.04 crore accounts with an amount of Rs 6.36 lakh crore (as of February 26, 2021) have been sanctioned to women entrepreneurs under the scheme since its inception.

The Jan Dhan Yojana, which was announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his Independence Day address in 2014, was launched on August 28 in the same year. The scheme envisages universal access to banking facilities with at least one basic banking account for every household, financial literacy, access to credit, insurance and pension.

In 2018, the government launched PMJDY 2.0 with enhanced features and benefits. Under the new version, the government decided to shift focus from ‘Every Household’ to ‘Every Unbanked Adult’ and free accidental insurance cover on RuPay cards doubled to Rs 2 lakh for PMJDY accounts opened after August 28, 2018.

At the same time overdraft (OD) limit too doubled to Rs 10,000 and the facility of OD up to Rs 2,000 without conditions was brought in.

As per extant RBI guidelines, a PMJDY account is treated as inoperative if there are no customer induced transaction in the account for over a period of two years.

The PMMY was launched on April 8, 2015, for providing loans up to Rs 10 lakh to non-corporate, non-farm small/micro-enterprises. These loans are given by Commercial Banks, RRBs, Small Finance Banks, MFIs and NBFCs.

Under the aegis of PMMY, MUDRA has created three products namely, ‘Shishu’, ‘Kishore’ and ‘Tarun’ to signify the stage of growth or development and funding needs of the beneficiary micro unit or entrepreneur.

As far as Stand-Up India Scheme is concerned, the statement said, more than 81 per cent or 91,109 accounts with an amount of Rs 20,749 crore have been sanctioned to women entrepreneurs under the scheme.

Stand Up India Scheme was launched on April 5, 2016, to promote entrepreneurship at the grass-root level for economic empowerment and job creation.

This scheme seeks to leverage the institutional credit structure to reach out to the underserved section of people such as Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe and Women Entrepreneurs so as to enable them to participate in the economic growth of the nation, it said.

The objective of this scheme is to facilitate bank loans between Rs 10 lakh and Rs 1 crore to at least one Scheduled Caste (SC) or Scheduled Tribe (ST) borrower and at least one woman borrower per bank branch of banks for setting up a greenfield enterprise, it added.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Thanks for the long interesting explanation Adrija! Do you mind also adding supporting data that can make the description more solid - e.g. historical time series on capital/labour input and total factor productivity data ?
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