Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Bart S
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Bart S » 14 Mar 2018 01:41

rhytha wrote:
SaraLax wrote:
Many may know that Finacle is Infosys's banking software product. In 2009 - during UPA-2's rule Mr.Nandan Nilekani (an INC politician & co-founder of Infosys) was provided with a Cabinet Ranking ministerial position by the then PM ... Dr.Manmohan Singh & Nilekani was managing the UIDAI setup. I am left wondering if this could well be a conflict-of-interest type scenario and whether RBI or whoever was the related banking regulator entity or even the CAG - was OK with this instance of a Central government recommending a CBS solution to its PSUs that would lead to profits for one of its own party politician ?.

The PSU bank in which my father was working was made to abruptly change over (during UPA-2 rule) from their own Unix OS & Informatics DB based in-house CBS solution to the costlier Finacle type CBS solution. The bank lost a lot of its customers due to the various issues encountered during its banking software transition.


As much as I hate Infosys, it's better to create our own zaibutsu/cheabols. Else it will be easy pickings for foreign owned companies. I am ok with the Ambanis and adanis with prefential treatments, because that's the only way to create large companies of scale, create jobs of scale, increase productivity and have deep pockets to with stand recession or what nots.

Our industries and business are too small at this stage to stop any external onslaught. For example compare micromax/lava vs the Chinese mini/oppo :((


But an Indian company (Polaris) who specializes in the financial sector was replaced by another Indian company. I don't see how this benefitted India overall vs foreign competition. Polaris is not a tiny company either, it has a sizeable presence in TN. It looks like favoritism shown to Infosys, though at this point its hard to prove and its all another conspiracy theory.

I would however support the idea of banks running on a small set of locally developed and standardized CBS instead of running homegrown ones.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vips » 14 Mar 2018 02:03

HAL to raise ₹4,200 cr through via IPO :-? .

Government-sponsored Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) is aspiring to raise ₹4,200 crore from its initial public offering that opens for subscription on March 16. The aerospace company is engaged in design, development, manufacturing and other services of aircraft, helicopters, aero-engines, avionics, accessories and aerospace structures.

The IPO is an an offer-for-sale, where the company will not receive any money from the issue. It is a part of the government's 2017-18 divestment programme for which the target had been revised to ₹80,000 crore from ₹72,500 crore stated earlier in the Union Budget.

The government will offer over 3.41 crore equity shares through the issue, and over 6.68 lakh shares will be reserved for subscription by employees. The government will dilute 10.2 per cent of its stake in the company. The IPO closes on March 20.

Reportedly, the price band for the issue is fixed at ₹1,215-1,240 a share and retail investors will get shares at a discount of ₹25 a share.

The key attraction for the IPO would have been a joint venture between French firm Dassault Aviation and HAL for 126 Rafale fighter jets that India is purchasing from France. But the government on Tuesday dismissed such talks. Minister of State for Defence Subhash Bhamre, in a written reply to the Rajya Sabha, said, “Due to the inability of the government to conclude negotiations and sign the contract, there was no such agreement between Dassault Aviation and Hindustan Aeronautics or any other public sector undertaking (PSU).”

HAL’s operations are organised into five complexes, namely the Bengaluru complex, MiG complex, Helicopter complex, Accessories complex, and Design complex, which together include 20 production divisions and 11 research and design centres located across India.

As of December 31, 2017, its order book was ₹68,461 crore, which generally includes products and services to be manufactured and delivered and excludes anticipated revenues from joint ventures and subsidiaries.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 14 Mar 2018 10:15

IIRC Infy did work with Canara bank to create that banking software and then took all the bank staff with them. That worked well. Canara Bank after that stopped giving work to them.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Mar 2018 03:02



What would the revenue implications be of making all of India into a "Special Economic Zone" - i.e., taxing and regulating all businesses as though they were in a SeZ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 15 Mar 2018 03:13

In typical Trump style, this trade war stuff is mostly smoke without fire. As background, EPCG etc are income-threshold driven. India is already in the progress of phasing it out, and the US has no separate standing here, particularly since they *are* WTO compliant despite USTR bluster. Here's news from 6 months ago:
As India breaches WTO threshold, Centre to seek export subsidy phase-out
India will ask the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for a reasonable time frame of eight years to phase out its export subsidies, as the country has breached an income threshold stipulated by the multilateral body to end such sops. According to the special and differential provisions in the WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, when a member’s per capita gross national income (GNI) exceeds $1,000 per annum (at the 1990 exchange rate) for a third straight year, it has to phase out its export subsidies. There is, however, no clarity over the time-frame of ending such subsidies, said an official. But, even then, the country won’t be in a position to introduce a fresh direct export subsidy, some analysts said. According to the WTO data, India crossed the per-capita GNI threshold in 2013, 2014 and 2015. The 2015 figures, released by the WTO recently, revealed India’s per capita GNI rose to $1,178 in 2015 from $1,051 in 2013.

The schemes that could face the heat include Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS), Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG) scheme and interest equalisation scheme for the textiles sector under the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2015-20. Globally, zero-rating of exports are a norm and this is WTO compatible, as the idea is to neutralise the tax content in export items, and not to subsidise them. Under the Goods and Services Tax, this is to be achieved via a refund mechanism, as the tax’s structure doesn’t allow exemptions. Zero-rated supplies under the GST law includes export of goods and/or services and supply of goods and/or services to a SEZ developer or an SEZ unit.

What's going to happen ? India will vigorously agree to end these subsidies (because we already said six months ago that we were going to start doing so anyway). We will stick to 8 year timeline desired. Trump will claim a great victory. We'll get more benefits from him for having given him this 'yuuuge win'. And the world goes on...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 15 Mar 2018 08:01

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 15 Mar 2018 09:06

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/busin ... 27549.html

MSME initiatives start yielding results, credit to sector up 20%: DFS Secy
"MSME initiatives start yielding results! Credit to Micro sector up 20% YoY; MUDRA loans contribute to offtake; PSB share in first time borrowers 79%. Transformational shift underway!," Financial Services Secretary Rajiv Kumar said in a tweet.

MSME initiatives start yielding results! Credit to Micro sector up 20% YoY; MUDRA loans contribute to offtake; PSB share in first time borrowers 79%. Transformational shift underway!," Financial Services Secretary Rajiv Kumar said in a tweet.

First time borrowers increased 4 lakh and the public sector bank contribution was 79 per cent, he said.

Loans to small business in the sub-Rs 10 lakh category registered a growth of 32 per cent, he said.
related news

MSMEs with loan between Rs 10 lakh to Rs 5 crore have the lowest deliquency rate, he said, adding, these are relatively stable with limited downside.

The government has taken a slew of measures, including tax concessions in the budget, for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) with an annual turnover of up to Rs 250 crore and lowering of the interest burden.

The RBI on its part too announced various measures for MSMEs hit by the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) by giving them additional up to 180 days to clear their dues to banks.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 15 Mar 2018 10:43

To put things in prospective bankers are not giving loans to big moneybags now and there are few moneybags which are not NPA parties or under stress. As a result, they are looking into MSME. MSME sector always needed funding and for the last several years bankers were not so keen on lending to them because they are happy to give large loans.

In any event, good news.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 15 Mar 2018 16:26

I hope that real people on the ground are getting benefited. These are not just statistics of babus.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 15 Mar 2018 17:50

Suraj wrote:In typical Trump style, this trade war stuff is mostly smoke without fire. As background, EPCG etc are income-threshold driven. India is already in the progress of phasing it out, and the US has no separate standing here, particularly since they *are* WTO compliant despite USTR bluster. Here's news from 6 months ago:
As India breaches WTO threshold, Centre to seek export subsidy phase-out
India will ask the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for a reasonable time frame of eight years to phase out its export subsidies, as the country has breached an income threshold stipulated by the multilateral body to end such sops. According to the special and differential provisions in the WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, when a member’s per capita gross national income (GNI) exceeds $1,000 per annum (at the 1990 exchange rate) for a third straight year, it has to phase out its export subsidies. There is, however, no clarity over the time-frame of ending such subsidies, said an official. But, even then, the country won’t be in a position to introduce a fresh direct export subsidy, some analysts said. According to the WTO data, India crossed the per-capita GNI threshold in 2013, 2014 and 2015. The 2015 figures, released by the WTO recently, revealed India’s per capita GNI rose to $1,178 in 2015 from $1,051 in 2013.

The schemes that could face the heat include Merchandise Exports from India Scheme (MEIS), Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG) scheme and interest equalisation scheme for the textiles sector under the Foreign Trade Policy (FTP) 2015-20. Globally, zero-rating of exports are a norm and this is WTO compatible, as the idea is to neutralise the tax content in export items, and not to subsidise them. Under the Goods and Services Tax, this is to be achieved via a refund mechanism, as the tax’s structure doesn’t allow exemptions. Zero-rated supplies under the GST law includes export of goods and/or services and supply of goods and/or services to a SEZ developer or an SEZ unit.

What's going to happen ? India will vigorously agree to end these subsidies (because we already said six months ago that we were going to start doing so anyway). We will stick to 8 year timeline desired. Trump will claim a great victory. We'll get more benefits from him for having given him this 'yuuuge win'. And the world goes on...


This is same as how Trump claimed he achieved reduction in F35 prices. Looks like he cherry picks things which are eminent anyway, and shows he is pushing for them to come into being. Good publicity strategy, no..?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 15 Mar 2018 19:50

Yes that’s the SOP . We shouldn’t publicize it much. The man needs his wins . This is an easy one to ‘give’ , in exchange for which we can get substantial further gains from him.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Uttam » 15 Mar 2018 20:25

Here is Worldbank'sIndia Development Update

It has a tonne of data and econometric analysis useful in understanding the progress India has made in last few years. Most of the data ends in 2016.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 16 Mar 2018 17:14

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... or-economy
Bloomberg Economics rural tracker shows nascent recovery

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 16 Mar 2018 19:12

Bank credit disbursal grows which means domestic investments picking up.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... harebutton

Job market to expand by 20% next FY.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jo ... 322622.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 16 Mar 2018 19:39

I want this to be referred every time AP issues comes up

https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/a ... tion-58907

The tax devolution from the Union of India has increased by 91.32% from FY 2014–15 to FY 2015–16, and is expected to grow steadily. While the increase in taxes is promising, the larger share of the grants-in-aid from the Union of India — over 50% of total Union transfers, and nearly 25% of the total revenues of the state — is a challenge in the long-term.




2013-14 is combined Andhra
2014-15 was first time AP share was split and budgeted by UPA
2015-16 was first time Modi Govt. decided to increase state shares of center revenues

Union Transfers

Image


For perspective, look at state revenues

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 16 Mar 2018 21:33


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 16 Mar 2018 21:40

It is politics in AP not economics.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 16 Mar 2018 21:56

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 16 Mar 2018 21:57

Supratik wrote:It is politics in AP not economics.


just sent it to a lot of dumb idiotic friends on whatsapp. Next thing is they talk about movies instead of Modi

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vera_k » 16 Mar 2018 22:03

Supratik wrote:It is politics in AP not economics.


Which of these two is it, politically?

{Deleted}
Last edited by Suraj on 16 Mar 2018 23:08, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Whatever it is politically is definitely not for discussion here.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahul M » 17 Mar 2018 10:04

these tables need to be simplified for mango abdul to understand.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 17 Mar 2018 11:48

Can anybody point me to how various states contributed to the central revenues historically? Were the southern states always funded from their own revenues or northern states contributed more during early years of independence?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kittigadu » 17 Mar 2018 13:14

Vijayk

Can I use your charts on Twitter.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 17 Mar 2018 17:26

kittigadu wrote:Vijayk

Can I use your charts on Twitter.


Definitely. Please feel free. No need for my permission

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 17 Mar 2018 20:21

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... owout-hits
India’s current account deficit widened from last quarter, with potential to hurt the rupee before an expected rise in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week.
Key Points

The shortfall was $13.5 billion in October-December, or 2 percent of gross domestic product, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement in Mumbai on Friday
That gap was narrower than a median $15.85 billion deficit projected in a Bloomberg survey of 14 economists
The current account gap is wider than the previous quarter’s $7.21 billion deficit (1.1 percent of GDP), and higher than $8 billion recorded in October-December 2016 as trade deficit widened

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 18 Mar 2018 08:30

Ndtv

ew Delhi: The Congress on Saturday said it would impose a five per cent cess on the income of the top one per cent richest Indians when it comes to power.

The resolution on "Agriculture, Employment and Poverty Alleviation", adopted at the party's 84th plenary in Delhi, also said that the party shall create a National Poverty Alleviation Fund while this 5 per cent cess would "be used directly to give education scholarships to the children from Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and other BPL families".

The Congress also noted that the rising levels of income inequality is a direct result of the "anti-poor policies" of the Narendra Modi government.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 18 Mar 2018 14:29

"One cannot become Denmark with Chinese levels of corruption".
Paul Krugman : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=AsfdE1EcnBY

The three big threats to Indian growth are : weak/inefficient institutions (government, banking, finance, law, etc.); AI which can compete with services exports; and the mess in the advanced economies that can lead to a retreat from globalization.

I'd say another threat to India is the extremely poor quality of journalism. The headlines generated from Krugman' speech, and the actual speech and Q&A are quite different.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Parasu » 18 Mar 2018 15:26

PM Modi made a speech in favour of globalisation in Delhi. This was supported by the Chinese. Now India seems to be cosying up to the Chinese.
Isnt it better for India to work with the US and put restrictions on chinese imports considering we have high trade deficit with the Chowmins. At the same time shouldnt india work with US for something like free trade between the two? India has positive trade balance with USA.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/02/is-it-f ... agreement/

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 18 Mar 2018 15:45

Yagnasri wrote:IIRC Infy did work with Canara bank to create that banking software and then took all the bank staff with them. That worked well. Canara Bank after that stopped giving work to them.



Look at patni computers and the role of company "founders" when they were in that company. That should give you an idea of these paragons of business virtue, especially param poojiya sri sri (108) fraud foundation avaaru.

Once, the RBI advisory/guideline regarding integrating of the LOU swift software with the core banking solution was out, the software should have by existing law, been mandatorily modified to integrate SWIFT and the core banking software seamlessly, including the generation of appropriate reports and red flagging of outstandings/rollovers.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 18 Mar 2018 16:00

Singha wrote:Ndtv

ew Delhi: The Congress on Saturday said it would impose a five per cent cess on the income of the top one per cent richest Indians when it comes to power.

The resolution on "Agriculture, Employment and Poverty Alleviation", adopted at the party's 84th plenary in Delhi, also said that the party shall create a National Poverty Alleviation Fund while this 5 per cent cess would "be used directly to give education scholarships to the children from Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and other BPL families".

The Congress also noted that the rising levels of income inequality is a direct result of the "anti-poor policies" of the Narendra Modi government.


the meaning of this statement "and other BPL families" is ambiguous because with state after state kicking one particular party out of power, their members could very well qualify officially as BPL families.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 18 Mar 2018 21:11

Raghuram Rajan Breaks Silence on PNB Fraud, 80:20 Scheme, PSU Banks, RBI's LOU Discontinuation


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 18 Mar 2018 22:10

October-December Current Account Deficit Widens Sharply

https://www.ndtv.com/business/october-d ... e-business

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ShauryaT » 19 Mar 2018 07:51

Apologies if this was posted earlier, but the structural issues in PSB regulation are detailed well here.
Banking Regulatory Powers Should Be Ownership Neutral
RBI cannot remove directors and management at PSBs as Section 36AA(1) of the BR Act is not applicable to the PSBs.

Section 36ACA(1) of the BR Act that provides for supersession of a Bank Board is also not applicable in the case of PSBs (and regional rural banks or RRBs) as they are not banking companies registered under the Companies Act.

Section 10B(6) of the BR Act that provides for removal of the Chairman and Managing Director (MD) of a banking company is also not applicable in the case of PSBs.

RBI cannot force a merger in the case of PSBs as per Section 45 of the BR Act.

PSB’s banking activity does not require license from RBI under Section 21 of the BR Act; hence, RBI cannot revoke a license under Section 22(4) of the BR Act as it can in the case of private sector banks.

RBI cannot trigger liquidation of PSBs as per Section 39 of the BR Act.

Furthermore, in a remarkable exception of sorts, in some cases there is duality of Managing Director and the Chairman – they are the same – implying the MD is primarily answerable only to himself or herself.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby panduranghari » 19 Mar 2018 15:48

Image

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby panduranghari » 19 Mar 2018 15:50

US eats the least fresh food and spends the most on healthcare.
India spends more on fresh food and spends less on healthcare.

Causation =/= Correlation.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Bart S » 19 Mar 2018 16:10

panduranghari wrote:US eats the least fresh food and spends the most on healthcare.
India spends more on fresh food and spends less on healthcare.

Causation =/= Correlation.


Those are not absolute values but the portion of their expenditure. It does not necessarily mean that Indians eat more fresh food. Actually for a lot of fresh produce, milk, juices etc, America is pretty cheap relative to the income levels.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Mar 2018 17:01

https://in.reuters.com/article/india-fr ... NKBN1GW0WJ

Investment bank Goldman Sachs downgraded its forecasts for India’s economy on Tuesday in the wake of a more than $2 billion fraud at Punjab National Bank, warning it could spark tighter regulation of the banking sector that would constrain credit growth.

In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs lowered its real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast on India for the year to March 2019 to 7.6 percent from 8 percent earlier.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 20 Mar 2018 21:35

X-post

India's epic effort to bring power to all.

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-indi ... story.html


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