Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Adrija
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Adrija »

I will be happy with 5T by 2029. i will not be happy with 1-USD=94-INR though. INR should strengthen rather than devalue.
V_Raman garu, the two are linked to each other- if the rupee strengthens/ does not devalue as much as predicated, the USD 5 trn target would be achieved correspondingly earlier

To illustrate, if the INR: USD strengthens to 75, then the USD 5 trn mark would be reached by 2026, as per their own projections.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by srin »

V_Raman wrote:I will be happy with 5T by 2029. i will not be happy with 1-USD=94-INR though. INR should strengthen rather than devalue.
Why the obsession with stronger rupee as basis of a sound economy ? It'd only make our exports much costlier. if not for the oil dependency, our policy makers would have loved to have a much weaker rupee.

As long as we have ~3% inflation, huge amount of reserves and positive BoP, I don't mind the USD:INR going much beyond 100 as well. A bit of currency manipulation (by keeping rupee deliberately weak without having to suffer side-effects of costly oil imports) would make us much more competitive in exports.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by rsingh »

How come Western economies never devalue their currency to boost exports? China has kept tight control and they are doing well.You can not count on flimsy, low quality handicrafts that are made in mud house factories. It is shame that we still write "export quality" on products. It means our quality is low and we are happy with it. It is only for exports we try to make better. Bring right skill and machinery, economy of scale to bring cost down in competitive markets. Congi model devaluing has cost us much.Our IT sector is exporting on skill and quality, not due to weak Rupee.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Atmavik »

^^ correct me if I am wrong but I think it’s one of the major benefits for Germany to use the euro. Without it there currency would be too high for exports
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Najunamar »

I am not sure it is required for a currency to strengthen, look at Japan which has been between 95 and 130 to a $ even in the past 25 years and has been able to develop till recently.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Adrija »

Mercantilism (keeping a currency deliberately lower than what its REER- real effective exchange rate- would imply) to drive exports is a policy long favoured by China, and before that Korea, and before that Japan

However, for India to practice it, requires two enabling conditions, one external and one internal

1. It requires a benign international environment and no sanctions. China got a free pass but India does not- the USTR routinely brands/ threatens to brand India a currency manipulator even with the limited managed float which RBI does (and does a fantastic job of that IMHO).

2. Also, even assuming that we can manage the above, for it to be really effective India must either shift away from its current import intensive export basket, and/or do much more value addition locally.

Both are work in progress. IMHO, the policies adopted by the current GoI to improve our infrastructure and enhance our competitiveness (which longer term and both directly and indirectly result in higher local value add) are quite good. It just requires a longer runway for its effect to show up. But at least we are making food progress on this front and it finally complements what the RBI has been doing on the managed float front

We need to also place this in the wider context. The global scenario for low to middle income economies, which is what India is, is turning increasingly challenging. Both EU and US are actively re-shoring and I think this trend will actually continue. What we are seeing on the reserves and exchange rate front in India is actually relatively much better than what the other countries are facing
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by rsingh »

Atmavik wrote:^^ correct me if I am wrong but I think it’s one of the major benefits for Germany to use the euro. Without it there currency would be too high for exports
Germany benefited from a single currency area (EEC). Zero tariffs and excise. They maintain their technological edge. They have access to 27 countries. They sell the highest quality machines that no body can give a fight. That is what I want from India. ISRO is the best example of how I see India giving a fight. We are making rockets and sats better then other countries at the lowest price. We have one of the biggest middle class in the world. Make quality things in India and people will buy those.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Dilbu »

Indian autorickshaws plying the streets of African and South American countries is a good example of the kind of market we can capture if we step up the game and produce reliable and good quality goods. The market is sitting out there waiting for a country like India to come and grab.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

My 2c on China Strategy (remember those Bast@@@ can do any Sh1t)

- let the west suffer through the inflationary cycle now causing pain to western powers
- countries like India, Vietnam and Philippines invest massively into manufacturing to ramp up
- just like what they did to solar panels dumping, crank up the production and create an over abundance of goods
- make the massive investments made by India and other countries suffer massively as they cannot compete with State Subsidies and dumping strategies of the CCP

I have a feeling the CCP has more long term strategy (however painful for them in the short term) and unfortunately the world may awaken to see this sinister unfold too lately.

Hope that I’m wrong 200% on the above. But my worst fears says otherwise!!
A very savvy full-time investor I know on China situation has a conspiracy theory ...

Does anyone think this is even possible? DO they think once they crank up their Supplies, the world (west) will forget everything and jump aboard on China ship? Should India be on lookout for such a strategy?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vips »

Surely India and some other countries will impose anti-dumping duty on Chinese Products. China cannot rely on its plan as at least the major importing countries will do everything to counter it.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/technology/expl ... e-in-india
Explained: How The ONDC Is All Set To Democratise E-Commerce In India
mongst many achievements, what stands out for the Narendra Modi government, since 2014, is the steady digitisation of the Indian economy through several building blocks, starting with Aadhar and now with the Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC).

The foundation of this digitisation was in the Aadhar programme. Inherited from the Congress era, who themselves inherited the idea from the Vajpayee era, the programme was dragged into several privacy issues. In hindsight, the privacy debate was without merit.

Aadhar has been instrumental in achieving the objective of financial inclusion across the country. Be it the Aadhar enabled payment system or the linking of the Jan Dhan Yojana accounts, over 430 million of them, or the Direct Benefits Transfer (DBT) programme that has enabled over 300 welfare schemes, both cash and subsidy, and fixed monetary leakages worth thousands of crores of rupees, the biometric identification programme has revolutionised the economies at a micro-level.



https://www.economist.com/briefing/2022 ... -this-year
India is likely to be the world’s fastest-growing big economy this year
Can the expansion continue?
he trials and transformation of India’s economy have an epic quality, reminiscent of 19th-century America. A vast national market is being created, allowing firms to grow from economies of scale. Internal migration is shifting tens of millions of desperately poor people; a brash new consumer class is proliferating and empires are being built on new technologies. Tycoons unleashing vast investments are happy to debate if they are India’s Rockefeller or its Carnegie.

it is behind paywall
Last edited by vijayk on 14 May 2022 01:31, edited 1 time in total.
Vamsee
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vamsee »

^^^^
Non paywalled link

Link

--Vamsee
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

That's quite an article from an unlikely source. Of course the author can't help being who they are, but that's one of the meatiest articles on the Indian economy I've seen in a long time.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by S_Madhukar »

Agreed the first half was like being in a parallel universe and I had started dreaming of fairies and angels and the next half was classic decayed zombie flesh that reminds you the ecosystem is still alive taking a dump on us. The only thing missing was a cow !
Every time I feel like giving up I realise someone in India took up this challenge and made things happen
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by fanne »

See all the gymnastics to show that our GDP is still behind you know who. It will take 2 years (they said that 3 years ago, and again the same lie). It could very well be we are past them. Merchandise export is more than them after 200 years. This year the lead will only be more....it will need yet another article in Ecoli times.

{cleaned up}
Last edited by Suraj on 14 May 2022 00:46, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed unnecessary stuff
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... aign=cppst
Exports up 30.7% to $40.19 bn in April; trade deficit widens to $20.11 bn
India's merchandise exports rose 30.7% to $40.19 billion in the month of April aided by growth in sectors like petroleum products, electronic goods and chemicals, data from the commerce ministry showed on Friday.

The trade deficit, although, widened to $20.11 billion, as compared to $15.29 in April 2021.
Engineering goods exports increased by 15.38% to $9.2 billion, while petroleum products exports soared 113.21% to $7.73 billion.
Image
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Mod Note

Reminder n+1 that this isn't the politics thread. No one's been warned or banned. Let's keep it that way, ok ?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by komal »

Apparently GOI has banned wheat exports -- and this news was unexpected and will likely further add tension to financial markets on Monday. That the world is dependent on Indian wheat exports is a truly amazing story.

I remember how President LBJ forced Madame to beg for each shipment of wheat in the 1960s. To be sure, it was his actions that forced her to abandon, to some extent, her father's Stalinist (Joe not MK) ag policies and led to the Green Revolution.

A truly remarkable display of the wonder that is now India.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

komal wrote:Apparently GOI has banned wheat exports -- and this news was unexpected and will likely further add tension to financial markets on Monday. That the world is dependent on Indian wheat exports is a truly amazing story.

I remember how President LBJ forced Madame to beg for each shipment of wheat in the 1960s. To be sure, it was his actions that forced her to abandon, to some extent, her father's Stalinist (Joe not MK) ag policies and led to the Green Revolution.

A truly remarkable display of the wonder that is now India.

Interesting

http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/s ... n/645168/0

Many of us still have hurtful memories of the mid-'60s when, after two successive years of savage drought, India desperately needed American wheat under the US Public Law 480 on rupee payment — and at relatively low prices because the country had no foreign exchange to buy food in the world market. Indira Gandhi had just become prime minister and chose to go to Washington on an official visit. Lyndon Johnson gave her a gushing welcome and responded to the food problem confronting her effusively, promising as many as 10 million tons of PL480 wheat. However, at an early stage the transaction turned sour.

Infuriated by India's criticism of American bombings of Hanoi and Haiphong in the course of the Vietnam War, the irascible Texan put food shipments on such a tight leash that India literally lived from ship to mouth. With every morsel we swallowed a little humiliation.

What kind of pride and prejudice this country was up against is best illustrated by an interview Vijayalashmi Pandit had with Sam Rayburn, Speaker of the House and a legendary figure on the Hill at that time, from which she returned in a towering rage. It had gone something like this: "Why don't you buy wheat from Pakistan which has wheat in surplus? The only reason you don't is because Hindu India wants to do down Muslim Pakistan," Rayburn said to the ambassador. She tried to control her temper as best she could and said testily that India was not Hindu India, and that it had "more Muslims than Muslim Pakistan."

Rayburn: "Oh, you have Muslims in India! Honey, why didn't you say so earlier?"

Ambassador: "Sam, I have been saying this for two years, ever since I came here, but you don't hear and you don't understand." Whereupon Rayburn's tone suddenly changed, and he said: "No, no, now that I know, now you will have no trouble. If they give you any more trouble, honey, you just tell me." (Source: B.K. Nehru, then minister for economic affairs at the Indian embassy in Washington.)

" so condescending. i think we all should read up on the past to prepare for the future ..without America"
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

https://meet-global.bnext.com.tw/articles/view/47579

These technology transfer agreements allowed SCL personnel to travel to the US and Japan for in-person training and learning. SCL quickly disseminated this info to the rest of the company. They augmented this trade knowledge with university academic partnerships.

Using these resources, the company advanced very quickly from the 5 micron process technology down to a 0.8 micron process in the late 1980s. 0.8 microns, or 800 nanometers, was first achieved in 1987 by leading companies like NTT, Toshiba, and Intel.

So at this point, SCL was one semiconductor generation behind the leading edge. It seemed possible that India could achieve its goal of being a global semiconductor manufacturer within a decade.

Those hopes ended in 1989, when a devastating fire broke out at SCL. The cause of the fire remains unknown. A few sources have claimed, without evidence, that it was arson. Which I guess can make sense since SCL was making processors for the military at the time.

It would take until 1997 - 8 years - and substantial financial investment north of $50 million - before production finally restarted.

By then, new entrants like TSMC (which was founded in 1987) and Samsung had entered the race. And they quickly raced ahead of the rest of the world, capturing critical global market share and scale. India lost untold amounts of progress.

Today, SCL mostly does R&D work with its old 6 inch wafer fab. Recently in 2019, they announced that they are able to accept chip designs at the 180 nm node.

This is nowhere near the leading edge. But of course, there are plenty of viable commercial cases for fabbing semiconductors at higher nodes.

The more critical issue has to do with extremely sluggish development. It took SCL nearly a decade to reach that 180nm node.

They have been working on it since at least 2011, when they paid millions to Israel's TowerJazz Semiconductor for a fabrication unit.

SCL in the early 1980s had the advantage in that everyone else in the rest of the world was not too far ahead of them. Taiwan and China had yet to move into semiconductors. And the equipment back then was a lot cheaper.

Tens of thousands of Indian engineers work directly in VLSI design and their chips are taped out in leading edge fabs around the world. Virtually all of the world's biggest fabless chip companies have an Indian presence.

To conclude, there is no shortage of ideas - and human talent - for possible approaches to bring semiconductor manufacturing back to Indian shores. But there must be consistent, long-term direction from the very top - and fountains of money committed to that direction.

For India, the market has long passed the phase when a private entity can seed a thriving semiconductor manufacturing industry without outside help. The government has to do more to catch up.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vimal »

India seems to be easiest country to arson and detail anything. Chips to Copper plants.
Atmavik
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Atmavik »

vimal wrote:India seems to be easiest country to arson and detail anything. Chips to Copper plants.
we have a huge talent pool of Andolan jeevis/urban naxals.

on a more +ve note

https://swarajyamag.com/videos/video-ex ... -ecosystem
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by KL Dubey »

Vamsee wrote:^^^^
Non paywalled link

Link

--Vamsee
Thanks. I'd quite literally rather pay for toilet paper than for the Economist...! It may be that wisdom is finally dawning. The world respects strength.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by hanumadu »

India was under sanctions. Even the 180nm small scale fabrication unit was set up by an Israeli company, if my memory serves me right, after several years of sanctions after IBM backed out.

There was no way India could have been a Taiwan or Korea. The only way was/is to develop our own semiconductor equipment.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Adrija »

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/imf-cor ... -heres-why

Reference our conversations regarding India reaching USD 5 trn mark and the USD: INR exchange rate
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

Adrija wrote:https://swarajyamag.com/economy/imf-cor ... -heres-why

Reference our conversations regarding India reaching USD 5 trn mark and the USD: INR exchange rate

i suppose we should not be fixated on numbers., if the Uke conflict is any indication., India needs to "sanction proof" the economy , else the big forex reserve would mean nothing
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Adrija »

i suppose we should not be fixated on numbers., if the Uke conflict is any indication., India needs to "sanction proof" the economy , else the big forex reserve would mean nothing
Kit ji, not sure if I understood your comment fully- apologies upfront for that

1. This is about India's overall economy, not forex reserves
2. India becoming a USD 5 trn economy is also about atma-nirbharta- the number indicates that our domestic market is becoming viable so it should be good, no?

TIA
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

hanumadu wrote:
India was under sanctions. Even the 180nm small scale fabrication unit was set up by an Israeli company, if my memory serves me right, after several years of sanctions after IBM backed out.

There was no way India could have been a Taiwan or Korea. The only way was/is to develop our own semiconductor equipment.
kit
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

Adrija wrote:
i suppose we should not be fixated on numbers., if the Uke conflict is any indication., India needs to "sanction proof" the economy , else the big forex reserve would mean nothing
Kit ji, not sure if I understood your comment fully- apologies upfront for that

1. This is about India's overall economy, not forex reserves
2. India becoming a USD 5 trn economy is also about atma-nirbharta- the number indicates that our domestic market is becoming viable so it should be good, no?

TIA
yes., quite right ., but as i said its not all about numbers., india needs to move away from SWIFT and create its own indigenous alternatives., if Russia and China play ball., as we see western rating agencies can also play bad cop when it comes to critical times. As a rising power India needs to hedge and prepare for the time when the west sees India as a competitor., just like how they see China now.

This is not an if but when.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by CalvinH »

kit wrote:
Adrija wrote:https://swarajyamag.com/economy/imf-cor ... -heres-why

Reference our conversations regarding India reaching USD 5 trn mark and the USD: INR exchange rate

i suppose we should not be fixated on numbers., if the Uke conflict is any indication., India needs to "sanction proof" the economy , else the big forex reserve would mean nothing
We cant be a sanction proof economy till we continue to import oil and gas. Period. To choke India, west doesnt need to lock us out of SWIFT or other financial systems. They can just pressurize everyone to refuse oil sale to us.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by shaun »

So IMF forecasting of India becoming a 5T economy revised two years earlier, in 2026-27.

Image

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/imf-cor ... -heres-why
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vera_k »

Fiat Market Capitalizations

Nice little table keeping track of how Bitcoin is doing relative to other currencies.
kit
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

kit
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

Now thats how India's CEO should be :mrgreen:

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by CalvinH »

Deleted
Last edited by CalvinH on 18 May 2022 10:43, edited 1 time in total.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Mod Note:

Please stop bringing politics here.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/how- ... -countries

How Do Petrol Prices In India Compare With Other Countries?
Petrol in New Delhi currently costs Rs 105.41 a litre and diesel is priced at Rs 96.67 per litre.

Hong Kong has the costliest petrol at USD 2.58 per litre while Malaysia has the cheapest at 47 cents to a litre.

It costs USD 2.29 a litre in Germany, USD 2.28 a litre in Italy, USD 2.07 a litre in France, USD 1.96 a litre in Israel, USD 1.87 a litre in the United Kingdom and Singapore, USD 1.75 a litre in New Zealand and USD 1.36 a litre in Australia.

The price of petrol in India and Turkey is the same at USD 1.35 a litre.

Japan has a lower fuel price at USD 1.25 a litre. China has an even lower rate at USD 1.21 a litre while it is still cheaper in the US at 98 cents per litre.

India's neighbours have cheaper fuel - petrol in Bangladesh costs USD 1.05 a litre, 77 cents a litre in Pakistan and 67 cents a litre in Sri Lanka.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by disha »

vijayk wrote:... while it is still cheaper in the US at 98 cents per litre....
I am searching for a gas station in US that is giving 98 cents per litre. Or USD $3.71/Gallon

https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/

The price in the great state of Kahlifornia is more like 1.97 cents per litre.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 798086002/
V_Raman
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by V_Raman »

please tell me where i can get gas for 98c a liter?! costco redmond wa is like $5 per gallon - 1.32 a liter
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