Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 08 Jun 2018 00:48

While anyone can seek any flimsy judgment, it’s important to also recognize that we are dealing with commercial counter parties involved in exchanging potentially billions of dollars per deal . It is not in the interest of any party to break a system that gets them their money, or their hands on a valuable company at a cut rate price .

While theoretically one can fear of any real or imagined political concern, let's stick to actual economic discussion here. It’s the sign of a good law that it’s being progressively fine-tuned . An effective bankruptcy law takes several revisions to figure out details and stymie attempts to circumvent it. Already in its short history, GoI has repeatedly updated it via ordinances to close out routes by promoters seeking backdoor ways to reacquire their insolvent entities. As they've demonstrated their ability to establish and get this law working - with resolution on two of the biggest insolvent cases already - then they should be trusted to manage judicial challenges effectively.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Jun 2018 17:14

“India’s 10-year bond yield rose above 8 percent for the first time since May 2015 as concern deepened that higher oil prices will fuel inflation and widen the government’s budget deficit.“

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-may-2015

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 08 Jun 2018 17:57

MSME slump in Tamil Nadu
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/t ... 107824.ece
PS:
Then the analytical mind kicks in.

Code: Select all

           Number of MSME.  Number of employees. Employees/unit
2016-2017  267,310          1,897,619            7.09
2017-2018  217,981          1,378,544            6.32

Net units lost: 49329
Net employment lost: 519,075
Avg employees/unit lost: 10.52


i.e., the numbers indicate more are lost on the Medium size than towards the Micro size. So what's going on?

PS: Karnataka has 20 lakh plus MSME and Andhra Pradesh claims 25.96 lakhs, so TN having just 2.something lakh is wrong. This Hindu story may have taken growth numbers and turned them into absolute numbers.

The thread on this tweet explains:
https://twitter.com/macgupta123/status/ ... 1919098880
Last edited by A_Gupta on 09 Jun 2018 04:26, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 09 Jun 2018 01:01

Per trading economics.com, the YoY Deposit Growth for May was 8.5% (compared to the previous 7.6%), the YoY Bank Loan Growth for May was 13.1% (compared to the previous 12.6%).

from: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/calendar

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 09 Jun 2018 05:07

A story that got it right on the Tamil Nadu Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises.
http://knnindia.co.in/news/newsdetails/ ... generation
Tamil Nadu's Rural Industries Minister P Benjamin has made a revelation that the employment generation in Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises has declined by whopping 5-19 lakh in financial year 2017-18.

Moving the debate on demand for grants for the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises department, Benjamin who said that the sector contributed to about 40% of exports, admitted to a dip in the number of new ventures in the last financial year.

Comparing the numbers with the previous year, only 2.17 lakh new MSMEs had registered in 2017-18, which was 49,329 less than the previous year.

Given the previous instance when job generation in the sector saw a marginal fall was in 2013-14 when the sector managed to create only 4.94 lakh new jobs, nearly 98,000 jobs less than in the 2012-13 fiscal.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kiranA » 09 Jun 2018 08:27

So GoI claims growth for 2017-18 will be 6.6%. Taking them as it is (they are generally revised later), I did a math to see how richer or poorer have indians become on per capita basis in the last year. I took last year exchange rate at 64.5 and this years at 67.5 (fair approximations). Assuming population growth at 1.2%, data shows that indian per capita grew in dollar terms by 0.65% (less than one percent). Any one sees any issue with the math ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kiranA » 09 Jun 2018 08:50

What do folks think about first rate hike by RBI after 2014 ? I think it makes government job much harder. GoI borrowing costs have been rocketing with 10 year bond yields shooting up form say 6.3 something 2017 august to close to 7.9 per cent now primarily due to lack of interest in goi bonds. Trading volume is down to 10k crores from what used to be 60k crores.

In addition this appear to have no impact on indian rupee value which means imports remain expensive and borrowing too gets expensive.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Katare » 09 Jun 2018 09:05

kiranA wrote:So GoI claims growth for 2017-18 will be 6.6%. Taking them as it is (they are generally revised later), I did a math to see how richer or poorer have indians become on per capita basis in the last year. I took last year exchange rate at 64.5 and this years at 67.5 (fair approximations). Assuming population growth at 1.2%, data shows that indian per capita grew in dollar terms by 0.65% (less than one percent). Any one sees any issue with the math ?


Indians don’t use dollars so it doesn’t make a difference to them directky. Plus official and institutional numbers for PCI are available so need to try amateur math IMO. Instead do what Agupta has done above takes no more than 15 min to get the right information.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 09 Jun 2018 09:21

yes I too do not understand the logic of a rate hike at this point when we are trying to put together a string of high growth years...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby pankajs » 09 Jun 2018 10:05

Not really... Not everything that can be counted is counted in USD.

Otherwise WB and others wouldn't publish PPP data.

I am sure they are not BJP/Modi bhakt and they have been doing it for years i.e. much before BJP came to.power.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby pankajs » 09 Jun 2018 10:11

Singha wrote:yes I too do not understand the logic of a rate hike at this point when we are trying to put together a string of high growth years...

Rate hike to defend the Rupee against the dollar.

If Feds keep hiking rate expect follow on rate hikes in India too. We are not immune to the Fed rate hikes.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kiranA » 09 Jun 2018 10:19

Singha wrote:yes I too do not understand the logic of a rate hike at this point when we are trying to put together a string of high growth years...


RBi has been forced to balance two major things which now became contradictory leading to policy confusion. It needs to manage GoI debt (has an objective to reduce it) while also manage inflation. Unfortunately most economic indicators of India are inflationary - fiscal deficit inching to 4% and current account defecit the highest in last 6 years. While simultaneously inflation is also raising. If RBI targets inflation by raising interest rates it worsens goI debt but if govt has discipline in its spending and external trade not so bad it would help.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby arshyam » 09 Jun 2018 11:01

A_Gupta wrote:Per trading economics.com, the YoY Deposit Growth for May was 8.5% (compared to the previous 7.6%), the YoY Bank Loan Growth for May was 13.1% (compared to the previous 12.6%).

from: https://tradingeconomics.com/india/calendar

Thanks for this link saar. I've shared this on another forum to counter The Hindu's incorrect analysis.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby arshyam » 09 Jun 2018 11:04

A_Gupta wrote:MSME slump in Tamil Nadu
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/t ... 107824.ece
PS:
Then the analytical mind kicks in.

Code: Select all

           Number of MSME.  Number of employees. Employees/unit
2016-2017  267,310          1,897,619            7.09
2017-2018  217,981          1,378,544            6.32

Net units lost: 49329
Net employment lost: 519,075
Avg employees/unit lost: 10.52


i.e., the numbers indicate more are lost on the Medium size than towards the Micro size. So what's going on?

PS: Karnataka has 20 lakh plus MSME and Andhra Pradesh claims 25.96 lakhs, so TN having just 2.something lakh is wrong. This Hindu story may have taken growth numbers and turned them into absolute numbers.

The thread on this tweet explains:
https://twitter.com/macgupta123/status/ ... 1919098880

20 lakh plus also seems high, so we need reliable data.

I've found this from a report of the Chennai MSME office (page 5 of link):
There are 12.94 Lakh registered number of units in the State, providing an employment opportunities to about 80.81 Lakh persons. Since 2007-08 around 7.22 Lakh Entrepreneurs have filed EM Acknowledgement Part-II, providing Employment opportunities to about 41.41 Lakh persons with total investments Rs.1,09,074.17 Crore.


Also, per the Central govt's MSME portal, there are upwards of 5 lakh Aadhaar registered MSME units in TN (link). This seems to have grown by 2 lakhs in the past year or two, going by the first link I posted (Chennai MSME office report, page 6).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 09 Jun 2018 12:41

A_Gupta wrote:“India’s 10-year bond yield rose above 8 percent for the first time since May 2015 as concern deepened that higher oil prices will fuel inflation and widen the government’s budget deficit.“

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-may-2015


Sounds good for FD customers who has been getting less than rosy post tax returns forcing then to invest in volatile Stocks , Hopefully the bank would reciprocate and if bond yealds reached 9 % and FD @ 8 % then post tax returns on FD would be good to invest with.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A Deshmukh » 09 Jun 2018 14:19

Now that India is 5th largest $ economy should we be part of G-7 summit?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 09 Jun 2018 15:07

A Deshmukh wrote:Now that India is 5th largest $ economy should we be part of G-7 summit?


It is a chai-biskoot club. Waste of time. Over the time, it will become a looser's club.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahul M » 09 Jun 2018 18:04

G7 is a club of richest 'advanced' economies, i.e those with high per capita income. even PRC does not make the cut.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 09 Jun 2018 20:27

First rule of an exclusive club: they admit those who make them look good. India already has a MUCH larger PPP GDP than all but one G7 member, and China's bigger than all of them.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby uddu » 09 Jun 2018 20:38

G7 is nothing but the west+their poodle Japan. They had this G8 which tried to bring in Russia into it. Did not work. Hence it remains as a grouping of the West.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 09 Jun 2018 21:28

Say cheese if you want duty-free access, Trump poser to India

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 513812.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 09 Jun 2018 21:39

G-20 is a better format representative of most countries and suits India more . G-7 has lost its significance and is more of rich men kitty party club

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 09 Jun 2018 22:00

One solution will be to mark "vegetarian feed" and then export to India.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby srin » 09 Jun 2018 22:42

Doesn't the US FDA inspect the manufacturing facilities of pharma companies and allow/block them from US markets ? In the same vein, our inspectors should be allowed to inspect the farms (all expenses paid by the exporter) for purity of dairy products before accepting them.

Though, whether this is the real reason, or whether this a good excuse is something I don't know.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby VKumar » 09 Jun 2018 23:21

Supratik wrote:One solution will be to mark "vegetarian feed" and then export to India.


Organic dairy products

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kiranA » 10 Jun 2018 01:33

Deleted

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 10 Jun 2018 01:52

Deleted. Stop feeding the troll.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 11 Jun 2018 11:24

Rs 87,000 crore loss to PSU banks in FY 2018: PNB, IDBI, SBI lead the pack of 21

https://www.financialexpress.com/indust ... 0634/lite/

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Neshant » 11 Jun 2018 12:13

A Deshmukh wrote:Now that India is 5th largest $ economy should we be part of G-7 summit?


India is 5th largest on the basis of its body count only.

There is not much India produces that the world needs.

If one looks at South Korea, Japan, Germany, China - they all produce a lot of things that are in demand around the world.

China has done quite a job of stealing intellectual property and growing domestic companies that are carbon copies of western companies while keeping those foreign companies out of its market with a mercantilist economic policy.

How they are getting away with all this sh6t is beyond me.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 11 Jun 2018 12:18

Singha wrote:yes I too do not understand the logic of a rate hike at this point when we are trying to put together a string of high growth years...


Saar in very simplistic terms, increase in real GDP should increase Interest rates and vice-versa. Since we have higher nominal GDP plus higher inflation this quarter, real GDP growth is on higher side. All these numbers are on increasing trend for next couple of quarters at least. Add to that the global factors and rate hike becomes obvious.

We cannot independently manage our interest rates ignoring US Fed rates. Since out trade is completely connected with USD, any impact on USD through Fed rate change directly impacts our trade and thus our economy. Someone posted sometime ago about the impossible trinity - you cannot manage all three rigidly - monetary policy, free exchange rate and free capital flow. All other emerging Asian economies are also raising interest rates.

And back home there are three four factors which were already mentioned here in last few posts:
- increasing CAD due to oil prices, weakening Rupee
- increasing GDP
- increasing inflation (GOI has mandated RBI to keep inflation at 4+-2%, so RBI and GOI are on same page when RBI hiked rates)
- higher loan growth than deposit growths


But despite rate hike, RBI has kept its neutral stance on over all outlook which is taken as big positive by share market. I expect another rate hike by 0.25% this year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby souravB » 11 Jun 2018 14:47

Neshant wrote:India is 5th largest on the basis of its body count only.

There is not much India produces that the world needs.


Not entirely true. Plenty of things India produces that the world needs namely
    Agricultural items (Lentils, oil and meats to name a few)
    IT services (many work done for critical systems of a country)
    Medicines (most overlooked and underrated export in the country)
It's true that internal consumption of our country is such a huge industry that many industrialists are content with just that, but still India is a big part of the world economy and taking it out of the equation would effect probably all the countries in the world very very critically.
If one looks at South Korea, Japan, Germany, China - they all produce a lot of things that are in demand around the world.

China has done quite a job of stealing intellectual property and growing domestic companies that are carbon copies of western companies while keeping those foreign companies out of its market with a mercantilist economic policy.

How they are getting away with all this sh6t is beyond me.

it is very true. I work for a company which is developing a prototype but skeptical of getting a patent saying what is the point? we ourselves might be buying this thing from a Chinese wholesale market website in a year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 11 Jun 2018 21:08

India now in top 10 FDI destination.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 525601.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 11 Jun 2018 21:23

The actual UNCTAD report is here:
2018 World Investment Report

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 11 Jun 2018 22:23

Regarding the applicability of IBC to power gencos:
UDAY scheme: Discoms cut losses, but their dues to Gencos mount
Electricity distribution companies (discoms) under the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme may have reduced their financial losses by Rs 17,352 crore or 50% annually by March-end, but their outstanding dues to power generators have surged by over 150% to Rs 32,071 crore in the same period. Payments of Rs 27,832 crore to gencos are pending for more than 60-days.

Irregular and often delayed payments by discoms have been cited as the primary reason behind private generation assets becoming stressed. Power projects worth Rs 1,80,000 crore are now stressed, including non-performing assets of some Rs 70,000 crore. Although it is not immediately known who much of the unpaid dues were reckoned by the discoms as ‘payables’ as they reported the reduction in losses, industry sources said their losses would have been significantly higher if generation companies were paid in time.

Under the circumstances above, it makes no sense to attempt to force the gencos into receivership through IBC - there's nothing that a firesale of their assets will accomplish other than leave the same problem to the next guy.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Neshant » 12 Jun 2018 11:29

souravB wrote:It is very true.
I work for a company which is developing a prototype but skeptical of getting a patent saying what is the point?
we ourselves might be buying this thing from a Chinese wholesale market website in a year.


Anything that is easy to copy will be copied by China.
The only thing worth developing is stuff that is so complex that its hard to back engineer.
Stuff that you don't need a patent on because nobody has a hope in hell of figuring out how it works.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JTull » 12 Jun 2018 15:22

Suraj wrote:Regarding the applicability of IBC to power gencos:
UDAY scheme: Discoms cut losses, but their dues to Gencos mount
Electricity distribution companies (discoms) under the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana (UDAY) scheme may have reduced their financial losses by Rs 17,352 crore or 50% annually by March-end, but their outstanding dues to power generators have surged by over 150% to Rs 32,071 crore in the same period. Payments of Rs 27,832 crore to gencos are pending for more than 60-days.

Irregular and often delayed payments by discoms have been cited as the primary reason behind private generation assets becoming stressed. Power projects worth Rs 1,80,000 crore are now stressed, including non-performing assets of some Rs 70,000 crore. Although it is not immediately known who much of the unpaid dues were reckoned by the discoms as ‘payables’ as they reported the reduction in losses, industry sources said their losses would have been significantly higher if generation companies were paid in time.

Under the circumstances above, it makes no sense to attempt to force the gencos into receivership through IBC - there's nothing that a firesale of their assets will accomplish other than leave the same problem to the next guy.


UDAY cannot solve the problem of incompetence and lack of governance standards.

Alternative is to merge discom (and all state PSU) payables into the state budget. Then force states to borrow from RBI or market at ratings that reflect their deficits.

Eventually, receivership of discoms will force them out of state/political interference. Privatisation of these assets will mean that any free power will have to paid by states rather than using SEBs as proxy.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby souravB » 12 Jun 2018 16:02

Neshant wrote:Anything that is easy to copy will be copied by China.
The only thing worth developing is stuff that is so complex that its hard to back engineer.
Stuff that you don't need a patent on because nobody has a hope in hell of figuring out how it works.

Nothing in this world is un-copyable (well except for atoms and molecules). Patents are there to help recover the R&D cost by giving an advantage in the sale.
You can get a phone that looks like an IPhone at 25% of the cost having 50% of its functionality with OTS parts but the experience wouldn't be the same.
My point is to get ahead in the game, we have to behave like stake holders, all of us. we can make a concerted effort of buying India made as long as possible, avoid cheap knock-offs and promote Indian brands or brands that make in India.

May be we are getting OT. I will stop my rant here.
cheers :)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 12 Jun 2018 19:41

JTull wrote:UDAY cannot solve the problem of incompetence and lack of governance standards.

Alternative is to merge discom (and all state PSU) payables into the state budget. Then force states to borrow from RBI or market at ratings that reflect their deficits.

Eventually, receivership of discoms will force them out of state/political interference. Privatisation of these assets will mean that any free power will have to paid by states rather than using SEBs as proxy.

Those are very good thoughts indeed. And yes, UDAY alone doesn't fix the whole problem. It's a necessary first step but not a sufficient one.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 12 Jun 2018 19:59

trading economics.com reports:

India's industrial output grew 4.9 percent year-on-year in April 2018, following an upwardly revised 4.6 percent advance in the previous month and missing market expectations of 5.2 percent. Manufacturing production rose at a faster 5.2 percent (vs 4.7 percent in March) and mining output went up 5.1 percent (vs 3.1 percent in March). On the other hand, electricity production growth slowed to 2.1 percent in April from 5.9 percent in March.


India's annual inflation rate rose to 4.87 percent in May of 2018 from 4.58 percent in April, slightly above market expectations of 4.83 percent. It is the highest reading in four months amid rising prices for food and fuel.


Manufacturing Production in India increased 5.20 percent in April of 2018 over the same month in the previous year.


To expand on the above, Business Standard reports:
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 201_1.html

"The industry group 'manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products' has shown the highest positive growth of 27.5 per cent followed by 21.9 per cent in 'manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers' and 15.7 per cent in 'manufacture of food products'."

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 12 Jun 2018 21:20



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