Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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saip
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by saip »

I have a question on GST. What is the rate for 5star hotels? I booked rooms in Vizag and Aurangabad end of August. Both confirmed the rate at room rent +18% gst. While Vizag Hotel did not change the rate (room rent 7490 per day + 18% gst) when we checked out the Taj at Aurangabad is claiming that the GST has gone up to 28% now. Is it true? When did it go up? Where can I find the rate?

Suraj, If this does not belong here, pl delete it.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ I heard that GST rate depends on the room price, and GST rates are higher for higher priced hotels. Also, GST rate is determined by the "rack rate" or undiscounted price of the room, and not the price you actually pay (which could be a lot cheaper). 28% does appear to be the correct highest GST rate.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by JohnTitor »

Saip, you can check the rates here. I think the rates for hotels is 18%

http://m.hindustantimes.com/interactive ... lete-list/
saip
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by saip »

Thanks The room rent is actually lower at Taj, Aurangabad (6900/-). It appears to be 18%. I am about to check out.
yensoy
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

JohnTitor wrote:Saip, you can check the rates here. I think the rates for hotels is 18%

http://m.hindustantimes.com/interactive ... lete-list/
Yes, the highest rate appears to have been revised to 18% from 28% (http://www.thehindu.com/business/touris ... 907648.ece)
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by JTull »

IMHO, I expect the rate to be capped at 18% for all Goods and services, before the next General Elections.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Austin »

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 12 Jan 2018 00:48, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please don't xpost in multiple places. The global economic thread is enough.
JohnTitor
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by JohnTitor »

JTull wrote:IMHO, I expect the rate to be capped at 18% for all Goods and services, before the next General Elections.
That would be sensible. Higher taxes provide incentives for avoidance. Even with GST traders are avoiding taxes through cash transactions. Such high taxes are not justified in a country like India - there is nothing to show for it (I know that a lot of it is used for subsidies etc but I meant in terms of infrastructure, education, health etc)

But given that states need to agree to it, it seems like a difficult proposition.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Karthik S »

India zooms past Germany as fourth-largest auto market
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Trends ... uto-market
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Direct tax collection soars 18 per cent to Rs 6.56 lakh cr during April-December
The government has collected Rs 6.56 lakh crore in direct taxes, up 18.2 per cent on hefty advance tax mop up, for the April-December period of the current fiscal. The net collections represent 67 per cent of the total Budget Estimate of Rs 9.8 lakh crore for direct taxes in 2017 -18. Direct taxes comprise income tax paid by individuals, corporate tax and wealth tax. Refunds amounting to Rs 1.12 lakh crore have been issued during the first nine months of the current fiscal. Gross direct tax collections (before adjusting for refunds) have increased by 12.6 per cent to Rs 7.68 lakh crore. “The provisional figures of Direct Tax collections up to December, 2017 show that net collections are at Rs 6.56 lakh crore which is 18.2 per cent higher than the net collections for the corresponding period of last year,” the finance ministry said in a statement.

An much as Rs 3.18 lakh crore has been received as advance tax up to December, 2017-18, reflecting a growth of 12.7 per cent over the year ago period. Growth in advance tax paid by corporates is 10.9 per cent, while in case of personal income tax it is 21.6 per cent. The government had last fiscal exceeded the direct tax collection target set in the Budget. It had collected over Rs 8.49 lakh crore against the Budget estimate of Rs 8.47 lakh crore.
Economic expansion: RBI data shows expansion in credit growth for first time in 14 months
For the first time in 14 months, the industrial sector saw an expansion in credit growth in November 2017 over the same period the previous year. Reserve Bank of India has released the data which shows gross bank credit expanded 8.3 per cent in November, and credit off-take by the industry by 1 per cent. The contraction in credit growth to the industry since October 2016 had hit a low of (-)5.2 per cent in February 2017, while the gross bank credit growth stood at 3 per cent in the same month.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by A_Gupta »

https://www.reuters.com/article/india-c ... SL4N1P54I5
MUMBAI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Indian cotton traders have cancelled contracts to export some 400,000 bales of the fibre after a rally in domestic prices and the rising rupee made overseas sales unattractive, the president of the Cotton Association of India told Reuters.

The switch, triggering penalty payments by traders, has left cotton buyers in leading markets like Bangladesh, Vietnam and China seeking to make up shortfalls by tapping suppliers in the United States, Australia and Brazil, said association head Atul Ganatra.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by hanumadu »

https://www.indiainfoline.com/article/n ... 359_1.html
November 2017 IIP growth stood at 8.4% yoy
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Austin »

Bart S wrote:
Austin wrote:Ruchir Sharma // View on the Asian Economy

The guy is really dripping with bile and about India and GOI/Modi. Virtually everything he said about India was dismissive and condescending. His 'insights' are as shallow and worthless as that of those stereotypical yanks visiting Mexico whose key takeaway is that one must only drink bottle water when there.
He is positive about Indian Stock Market and recommends best place to stay invested , Critical of Demo as over night decision.
He is also dismissive about China also if there is any solace.
saip
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by saip »

yensoy wrote:
JohnTitor wrote:Saip, you can check the rates here. I think the rates for hotels is 18%

http://m.hindustantimes.com/interactive ... lete-list/
Yes, the highest rate appears to have been revised to 18% from 28% (http://www.thehindu.com/business/touris ... 907648.ece)
It IS 28%. But the Taj at Aurangabad adjusted their invoice and applied some discounts so that the final amount came to the same amount they quoted in Aug (i.e room rate + 18%). Their invoice did show the 28% rate but because of the discounts the final amount was reduced. 28% is a lot, almost a third of the room rate. I hope the govt reduces the rate.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 15 Jan 2018 05:15, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Don’t post unconfirmed WhatsApp material here
Ananth
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Ananth »

Looks like the bank charges posted by vijayk is for BoI.

http://www.opindia.com/2018/01/truth-ab ... uary-2018/
The press release clearly states that there is no such proposal for blanket removal of free services by public sector banks, and neither is such a move being contemplated. It also clarifies that there is no fresh RBI instruction or guideline towards the same. However, the release also says that banks can constantly revise their charges looking at their commercial operational costs.
DFS secretary tweet: https://twitter.com/rajeevkumr/status/9 ... 4185692160
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Yagnasri »

Bank officers already clarified that there is not going to be any such charges. It is possible these are rumours.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Here's some IIP data through the entire period of the current administration. This lists month, calendar year, fiscal year, monthly IIP as well as trailing 3-month average and trailing 6-month average IIPs, plus notes of important economic events.

Code: Select all

Mth   CY	  FY	IIP	3-mo IIP	6-mo IIP	Notes
Nov	2017	2017-18	8.4	4.8	3.3	
Oct	2017	2017-18	2.2	3.5	2.2	
Sep	2017	2017-18	3.8	3.2	2.4	
Aug	2017	2017-18	4.5	1.9	2.2	
Jul	2017	2017-18	1.2	0.9	1.2	GST Effective
Jun	2017	2017-18	-0.1	1.6	1.5	
May	2017	2017-18	1.7	2.5	1.4	
Apr	2017	2017-18	3.1	1.5	2.1	
Mar	2017	2016-17	2.7	1.4	1.3	
Feb	2017	2016-17	-1.2	0.4	0.9	
Jan	2017	2016-17	2.7	2.7	1.0	
Dec	2016	2016-17	-0.4	1.1	0.2	
Nov	2016	2016-17	5.7	1.5	0.6	Demonetization
Oct	2016	2016-17	-1.9	-0.6	-0.2	
Sep	2016	2016-17	0.7	-0.8	0.0	
Aug	2016	2016-17	-0.7	-0.3	-0.1	
Jul	2016	2016-17	-2.4	0.3	0.4	
Jun	2016	2016-17	2.1	0.8	0.5	
May	2016	2016-17	1.2	0.2	-0.1	
Apr	2016	2016-17	-0.8	0.4	-0.8	
Mar	2016	2015-16	0.05	0.2	1.0	
Feb	2016	2015-16	2	-0.3	1.6	
Jan	2016	2015-16	-1.5	-2.0	2.3	
Dec	2015	2015-16	-1.3	1.8	3.3	
Nov	2015	2015-16	-3.2	3.5	4.2	
Oct	2015	2015-16	9.8	6.7	5.2	
Sep	2015	2015-16	3.8	4.8	4.2	
Aug	2015	2015-16	6.4	5.0	3.9	
Jul	2015	2015-16	4.2	3.8	3.6	
Jun	2015	2015-16	4.4	3.5	3.4	
May	2015	2015-16	2.7	2.7	2.9	
Apr	2015	2015-16	3.4	3.5	1.8	
Mar	2015	2014-15	2.1	3.2	0.6	
Feb	2015	2014-15	5	3.1	0.6	
Jan	2015	2014-15	2.6	0.2	-0.1	
Dec	2014	2014-15	1.7	-2.1	-0.5	
Nov	2014	2014-15	-3.8	-1.8	-0.2	
Oct	2014	2014-15	-4.2	-0.4	1.2	
Sep	2014	2014-15	2.5	1.1		
Aug	2014	2014-15	0.4	1.4		
Jul	2014	2014-15	0.5	2.9		
Jun	2014	2014-15	3.4			
May	2014	2014-15	4.7			GE 2014
I'll attempt to augment this later with other notes, such as GDP numbers and benchmark rate cuts.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

twitter


Image
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

twitter



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JohnTitor
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by JohnTitor »

^^ chetak saar, I don't understand the above graph. Is that the gdp growth over 2 years? Or growth in exports over 2 years? Or something else?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

^^^^
It's the percentage of global growth in GDP attributed to that particular country. So if there are only 2 countries in the world, and country A is a 10T economy growing at 2% and country B is a 3T economy growing at 10%, then the GDP growth of A is 200B and GDP growth of B is 300B. In the above graph it would show country A's %age of global growth to be 200/(200+300), i.e. 40% and country B's %age contribution to global growth to be 60%.

It's also possible for a country to have negative contribution if its GDP is falling.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Looking at my IIP data posted earlier, there are two periods of sustained industrial expansion in this administration:
* Most of calendar year 2015
* Period since GST

At all other times, IIP has been very volatile. 3-mo and 6-mo trailing averages reflect that. There are repeated months or -1 to -2% IIP growth. There's only one brief month of -0.1% this year and otherwise data indicates growing momentum.

This should address RahulM's recent question about IIP, where I mentioned that 1-month data isn't useful and that we need a rolling average trend-line.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Schmidt »

Ananth wrote:Looks like the bank charges posted by vijayk is for BoI.

http://www.opindia.com/2018/01/truth-ab ... uary-2018/
The press release clearly states that there is no such proposal for blanket removal of free services by public sector banks, and neither is such a move being contemplated. It also clarifies that there is no fresh RBI instruction or guideline towards the same. However, the release also says that banks can constantly revise their charges looking at their commercial operational costs.
DFS secretary tweet: https://twitter.com/rajeevkumr/status/9 ... 4185692160
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
It is true , I have a Bank of India account for my business and they have started charging for RTGS transfers , whilst it was free of charge earlier
Deans
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Deans »

yensoy wrote:^^^^
It's the percentage of global growth in GDP attributed to that particular country. So if there are only 2 countries in the world, and country A is a 10T economy growing at 2% and country B is a 3T economy growing at 10%, then the GDP growth of A is 200B and GDP growth of B is 300B. In the above graph it would show country A's %age of global growth to be 200/(200+300), i.e. 40% and country B's %age contribution to global growth to be 60%.

It's also possible for a country to have negative contribution if its GDP is falling.
What is significant is that India currently contributes more to global growth than the EU. Or more than UK, Japan, Canada & Australia combined.
Chinese GDP growth ha peaked so its share will keep going down, while India's will rise, to a point where it should overtake US around 2025.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Deans wrote:What is significant is that India currently contributes more to global growth than the EU. Or more than UK, Japan, Canada & Australia combined.
Chinese GDP growth ha peaked so its share will keep going down, while India's will rise, to a point where it should overtake US around 2025.
Even more significantly, this is in real current-dollar GDP, not PPP terms. It's very significant that in current dollars, we already contribute more to global GDP growth than the entirety of Eurozone. Probably we also contribute more than all of the rest of the Commonwealth combined, too. The US contributes twice as much as us to annual global growth, with an economy 6 times larger.

In PPP terms, we already contribute more to global GDP growth than everyone - even the US - except China.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Arjun »

Yeah...and at some point over the next few years India will be contributing more to global growth than the US. Looks like China, India & US will remain the big 3 going forward
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Rahul M »

thanks Suraj.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Akshay Kapoor »

Suraj wrote:
Deans wrote:What is significant is that India currently contributes more to global growth than the EU. Or more than UK, Japan, Canada & Australia combined.
Chinese GDP growth ha peaked so its share will keep going down, while India's will rise, to a point where it should overtake US around 2025.
Even more significantly, this is in real current-dollar GDP, not PPP terms. It's very significant that in current dollars, we already contribute more to global GDP growth than the entirety of Eurozone. Probably we also contribute more than all of the rest of the Commonwealth combined, too. The US contributes twice as much as us to annual global growth, with an economy 6 times larger.

In PPP terms, we already contribute more to global GDP growth than everyone - even the US - except China.
Wow, that's very useful information.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by JohnTitor »

yensoy wrote:^^^^
It's the percentage of global growth in GDP attributed to that ....
Thanks Yensoy
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Dipanker »

Suraj wrote: Even more significantly, this is in real current-dollar GDP, not PPP terms. It's very significant that in current dollars, we already contribute more to global GDP growth than the entirety of Eurozone.

Allow me to be skeptical about this claim. Eurozone (EU?) has roughly the size of economy as that of USA ( ~$18.3T) and is roughly growing at similar rate ( ~2.9%).

So in terms of growth, whatever contribution USA is making EU is also making contribution of the similar order. Thus if USA is #2 in contributing to global growth, EU should also be #2/#3, right?

India is a $2.5T economy growing at ~7+% or equivalent of $2.5*0.07*1000B ~= $175B worth of growth/year.
By the same measure EU's contribution would be $18.3 * 0.029 * 1000B ~= $530B worth of growth /year

Certainly $530B >> $175B , right?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Arjun »

The graph says 2017 - 19...so looks like they considered two years of growth.

Eurozone GDP is more like $13.something T and they must have assumed about 2% growth over next couple of years.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Dipanker »

Arjun wrote:The graph says 2017 - 19...so looks like they considered two years of growth.

Eurozone GDP is more like $13.something T and they must have assumed about 2% growth over next couple of years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_o ... pean_Union
GDP $18.3 trillion (nominal; 2018)[2]
$20.9 trillion (PPP; 2017)[2]
GDP growth Increase 2.9% (2017)[3]
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Viv S »

Apparel industry model holds the key for India’s job creation requirements
By Arvind Panagariya

Nothing explains India’s job creation challenge better than a comparison between Reliance Industries (RIL) and Shahi Exports. While RIL is a familiar name to nearly all, most readers would not have heard of Shahi Exports. If we are to solve our jobs problem, this needs to change.

The RIL reports $110 billion in assets and 250,000 employees across its various ventures. Therefore, it employs five workers for each $2.2 million in assets. Shahi Exports, which is India’s largest apparel exporter, has assets worth $185 million and employs 106,000 workers in its apparel factories. Therefore, it employs 1,260 workers for every $2.2 million in assets. For the same investment, Shahi Exports creates 252 times the jobs that RIL does.

Jobs that Shahi Exports creates are what India needs most today. Its factories can take someone with fifth-grade education and impart necessary training in just six weeks. On average, these workers earn Rs 15,000 a month. About 60% of Shahi Exports employees are women. If we could rapidly multiply what Shahi Exports does, we could begin expanding formal-sector jobs rapidly — especially for women.

Apparel requires modest investment per job and the demand for it is there. In 2015, the apparel export market was $465 billion. India exported $18 billion of it compared with China’s $175 billion. High wages are now forcing China to withdraw from this market. From $187 billion in 2014, its apparel exports have fallen to $158 billion in 2016. India must take the space China is vacating.

Image

To understand what needs to be done, we must ask why India has not done well in this sector to date. For decades, our policies reserved apparel for production by small-scale enterprises. These enterprises were too small and their product quality too low to succeed big in the export markets. Beginning in 1973, India’s investment policy confined large firms and big industrialists to investing exclusively in a set of listed ‘core’ industries, which were all highly capital intensive.

As a result, over time, our big industrialists have become hardwired into believing that sectors such as apparel are not for them. Although the core industries regulation ended in 1991, and small-scale industries reservation was withdrawnmore than a decade ago, investment in apparel remains entirely off the radar screens of India’s big industrialists and their children.

Grab That Garb

One way to cut this Gordian knot is to encourage the global apparel firms exiting China to locate in India, instead of Bangladesh and Vietnam. These firms have the technology and management know-how to operate on large scale. They also have links to global markets. Once a few anchor firms locate in India, many more local Shahi Exports firms would emerge.

An important key to making India an attractive destination for global firms is to create greater labour market flexibilities. This is something that has characterised all successful exporters of labour-intensive products such as apparel. We need better balance between the interests of those who already have formal sector jobs, and those who seek them. When protection to existing formal sector workers is extra-high, the incentive to hire more of them turns low. Firms choose to stay small, operate informally and, thus, escape costly labour regulations.

Thus, consider, say, the minimum wage. If you live in Delhi, you are likely to think that a minimum wage of Rs 15,000 per month is only fair. And yet, such a wage will drive many labourintensive, formal sector firms out of business. Their employees would then end up in the informal sector. Reports that the Wage Code currently under consideration by Parliament may hike the national minimum wage to Rs 18,000 a month have left many formal sector firms very nervous.

Exports, especially in the apparel industry, face very tight just-in-time delivery schedules. Therefore, rapid movement of imported inputs into the country and of export products out of it are essential. This requires concerted effort at trade facilitation.

Unnecessary clearance requirements need to be eliminated and the turnaround time of ships at ports needs to be brought down to a few hours as in Hong Kong and Singapore. Coastal Employment Zones (CEZs) offer a convenient avenue to bringing about these changes expeditiously within limited geographical areas.

Competitiveness also requires that all indirect taxes paid by apparel exporters, including those on products outside the goods and services tax (GST) net, such as petrol, be expeditiously reimbursed in full. All competing countries follow this practice and the World Trade Organisation rules permit it as well.

The exchange rate has been a particularly sensitive issue for apparel exporters due to low profit margins on which they operate. Foreign investment and remittance inflows, which chase rupees, make them expensive.

Sew That’s Hewed

And an unduly expensive rupee makes Indian goods uncompetitive in the global marketplace. Therefore, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) needs to manage foreign exchange inflows such that the rupee does not appreciate unduly.

While apparel is the major sector where formal sector jobs can be expanded rapidly, what I have said above applies to a wide range of light manufactures including footwear, furniture, toys, kitchen utensils, paper, stationery, umbrellas and numerous other items of daily use. Therefore, the scope for creating good jobs for workers with limited skills through increased share in the global markets for these products is very substantial. It is difficult to think what alternative paths could advance this objective more effectively.

(The writer is professor, Columbia University, US)
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vips »

India will find it tough to beat Bangladesh and Vietnam in increasing its apparel exports.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

http://wap.business-standard.com/articl ... 086_1.html

600000 jobs per month being geerated
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Dipanker wrote:
Suraj wrote: Even more significantly, this is in real current-dollar GDP, not PPP terms. It's very significant that in current dollars, we already contribute more to global GDP growth than the entirety of Eurozone.

Allow me to be skeptical about this claim. Eurozone (EU?) has roughly the size of economy as that of USA ( ~$18.3T) and is roughly growing at similar rate ( ~2.9%).

So in terms of growth, whatever contribution USA is making EU is also making contribution of the similar order. Thus if USA is #2 in contributing to global growth, EU should also be #2/#3, right?

India is a $2.5T economy growing at ~7+% or equivalent of $2.5*0.07*1000B ~= $175B worth of growth/year.
By the same measure EU's contribution would be $18.3 * 0.029 * 1000B ~= $530B worth of growth /year

Certainly $530B >> $175B , right?
1. European Union != Eurozone . I'm not going to tell you what the difference is. Please find out yourself. GDP of Eurozone = $13 trillion . The last data I see for GDP growth is 2.6%

2. It seems you're resolutely burying your head in the sand and using real GDP growth rates and not nominal GDP growth rates in USD terms. This is the third time in 1-2 months that you're using the same mis-maths.

Assuming Indian nominal growth of ~14% *including* effect of INR appreciation (and I'm being conservative here - the number should be higher):
India: $2.5 trillion * 14% = ~$350B
Eurozone: $13 trlilion * 2.6% = ~$338B

I don't see anything wrong with those numbers. The precise percentages they got depend on what they plugged in for their estimates of GDP, but the two are quite comparable.

Mod note: I've cleaned up some posts involving jokes comparing TSP. In general, comparisons with small potatoes are not entertained here.
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