Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vips »

Exports rise for 11th month, up 43.3% in October.

Led by engineering goods, petroleum products and gems and jewellery, India’s merchandise exports increased for the eleventh consecutive month in October and grew 42.33% on year at $35.47 billion. Official data released on Monday showed a 62.48% rise in imports leaving a trade deficit of $19.9 billion compared to $9.15 billion and the 14-year high trade gap of $22.59 billion in September.

Imports rose $55.37 billion last month and gold imports rose 104% at $5.1 billion.

“Non-oil, non-gold imports surged further to $35.8 billion in October, with a broadbased uptick across various commodity groups reflecting rising commodity prices, the expectation of healthy festive demand and a turnaround in domestic economic activity,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at NSE

In the first seven months of the fiscal, exports increased 54.5% at $232.58 billion while imports rose 78.7% at $331.29 billion.

Value of non-petroleum exports in October was $30.27 billion, registering a growth of 29.63% over the same period in 2020 and a growth of 32.84% at $22.79 billion in October 2019, the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement.

Value of non-petroleum imports was $40.94 billion, up 45.82% year-on-year and 44.87% higher than October 2019.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 453729.cms
India's manufacturing PMI gains steam in Oct, expands for 4th straight month
The seasonally-adjusted IHS Markit Purchasing Managers' Index came in at 55.9 in October, rising from 53.7 in September.
New orders also posted an increase in October. In fact, the spike in new orders was quite sharp, the survey shows, and expanded at the fastest rate in seven months. And as such, factory output too saw a sharp recovery & was the increased at the fastest pace since March. "Upbeat business confidence and projects in the pipeline should also support production in the coming months," De Lima added.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vips »

GST: October e-way bill generation at record 7.35 crore.

E-way bill generation for goods transportation under the goods and services tax (GST) system stood at a record 7.35 crore for October, highest monthly data since the indirect tax regime was rolled out in July 2017, reflecting an upswing in economic activities in the festival season and improved compliance.
UPI hits new record with ₹7.71-lakh crore worth of transactions in October.
Amidst festival season sales and opening up of the economy, UPI transactions touched a record high at ₹7.71 lakh crore in value terms in October.
This was a new record for UPI, which is fast becoming the most popular choice for digital payments. It was a 56 per cent jump from ₹6.54 lakh crore in transaction value recorded in September.

According to data released by National Payments Corporation of India on Monday, the number of transactions on the Unified Payments Interface platform amounted to 421 crore in October, compared to 365 crore in September.

Daily payments through UPI were averaging between ₹25,000 crore to ₹30,000 crore in October.

The Immediate Payment Service (IMPS) also scaled a new high in October and processed 43.06 crore transactions worth ₹3.7 lakh crore. It had processed 38.48 crore transactions amounting to ₹3.24 lakh crore in September.

Meanwhile, there were 21.42 crore transactions via the NETC FASTags totalling ₹3,356.74 crore in October compared to 19.36 crore transactions worth ₹3,009.3 crore in September.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

UPI transactions hit the $100 billion mark in October. I recorded this on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/surajbrf/status/1455295485518893058

Monthly transaction value:
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Trailing 12 month transaction volume is 34.5 billion:
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Trailing 12 month value is $852 billion:
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Both Covid waves resulted in a significant acceleration of UPI use and greater formalization of economic activity:
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Trailing 12 month data ending October in each of the last 5 years:
Oct 2021: $852B
Oct 2020: $397B
Oct 2019: $218B
Oct 2018: $56B
Oct 2017: $5B
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/business/why-in ... in-5-years
Why India’s UPI Could See 50 Billion Transactions Per Month In 5 Years

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The story of UPI is a testament to the success of Digital India, especially after the demonetisation of 2016.

What was once touted as a platform that would only cater to a few urban pockets, has quickly become ‘the’ payment interface for India, from buyers to sellers, from merchants as big as jewellers to as small as coconut sellers.
Continuing its upward trajectory, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) clocked 4.22 billion transactions in the month of October, registering an increase from 3.66 billion transactions in the preceding month.

The corresponding transaction value also spiked from Rs. 6.54 lakh crore to Rs. 7.71 lakh crore. This was the first month when the UPI crossed $100 billion in transaction value since its inception.

The story of UPI is also a testament to the success of Digital India, especially after the demonetisation of 2016. What was once touted as a platform that would only cater to a few urban pockets, has quickly become ‘the’ payment interface for India, from buyers to sellers, from merchants as big as jewellers to as small as coconut sellers.

Today, coming across street vendors with nothing more than a bicycle and yet being able to offer an option to pay digitally is not uncommon anymore.
Firstly, even at 4.2 billion transactions, the number of transactions, per individual, per month, on an average, if one factors a billion people is 4. Eliminate another 400 million citizens without the internet and it comes to down to roughly 7 transactions per month per individual.

If the holders of only Jan Dhan Accounts are factored, even then the average number of transactions is no more than 10.

India is set to register a billion internet users by the national elections of 2024, and has the future of retail moves online, or even in the virtual reality of the metaverse, more and more users will get accustomed to the UPI platform.

As ATMs and debit cards become obsolete, it will be the emergence of UPI in untapped markets and rural pockets that will become the norm for payments.

Clocking 50 billion transactions per month, for UPI, within the next five years, is no arduous task. Assuming a billion internet users, each making 50 transactions per month on an average, is quite simple.
Now if the Govt. removes privately identifiable info and just adds demographic info such as region/sex/age group and sell this data and then pays all the people who are using the UPI based on revenues, this may be real winning idea for the govt in 2024. create a digital rupee and deposit in their account.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

The local fruit selling push cart vendor has a board with paytm QR code for digital payment. Cant upload photo, but I'm sure there are lakhs like him now. Thats very impressive penetration of digital !
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Pratyush »

Cyrano wrote:The local fruit selling push cart vendor has a board with paytm QR code for digital payment. Cant upload photo, but I'm sure there are lakhs like him now. Thats very impressive penetration of digital !
This is not news. I have been seeing this in all parts of the country. Infact I was shocked to use cash for PUC certificate in Delhi.

The only places I am using cash are shopping mall parking in NCR. Everywhere else it's digital payments. Even the puncture wall is taking digital payments.

For groceries in my society. The shopkeeper has an app in which he uploads the price and details of the items I have purchased. I receive a text message with a payment link. The link takes me to the homepage with details of the purchases I have made along with the choice ( card, upi, NetBanking) of how I make the payment.

I make the payment and the outstanding is cleared automatically.

It is available in my village as well. People there prefer such medium to avoid being robbed when they are traveling with cash.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by rsingh »

Great.In EU QR code is very expensive for retailers. They have to pay on every transaction. VISA, google watch and others are very expansive. Retailer has to pay almost 3.5 Euro per transaction. That is the situation. it is ok for clients but retailers and venders suffer. That is why some discount stores do not accept credit cards or google Pay.
I proud of India bringing informal economy towards formal one. That is a revolution.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

Suraj wrote:UPI transactions hit the $100 billion mark in October...
Trailing 12 month data ending October in each of the last 5 years:
Oct 2021: $852B
Oct 2020: $397B
Oct 2019: $218B
Oct 2018: $56B
Oct 2017: $5B
Is it really the case that over one fourth of our GDP is transacted through UPI? What are the big payments here? Does this include business-to-business transfers, or salary payments for large segments of workers?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

yensoy wrote:
Suraj wrote:UPI transactions hit the $100 billion mark in October...
Trailing 12 month data ending October in each of the last 5 years:
Oct 2021: $852B
Oct 2020: $397B
Oct 2019: $218B
Oct 2018: $56B
Oct 2017: $5B
Is it really the case that over one fourth of our GDP is transacted through UPI? What are the big payments here? Does this include business-to-business transfers, or salary payments for large segments of workers?
I haven't seen analytical data on the transactions from UPI. Generally this should be VERY tightly maintained because it's worth its weight in gold and should never leave firewalled Indian data storage with strict data localization laws protecting it. UPI has already completely decimated western payment processing services like MC/Visa .
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by csaurabh »

yensoy wrote:
Suraj wrote:UPI transactions hit the $100 billion mark in October...
Trailing 12 month data ending October in each of the last 5 years:
Oct 2021: $852B
Oct 2020: $397B
Oct 2019: $218B
Oct 2018: $56B
Oct 2017: $5B
Is it really the case that over one fourth of our GDP is transacted through UPI? What are the big payments here? Does this include business-to-business transfers, or salary payments for large segments of workers?
Is UPI just a payment interface or does the term generically cover all sorts of online payment like NEFT/IMPS/RTGS/etc ? If the latter then I can believe the 1/4th of GDP number.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Varuna »

It's a payment interface. Does not cover NEFT etc. ​I do all transactions upto 50K through UPI. Payments to dhobi, vegetable vendor, milk, salaries to house help, and more importantly all bills (electricity, etc) are done with UPI. BillPay integrates nicely with UPI. Also people like our neighbours driver pays his monthly loan installments through UPI. Amazon Pay has integrated with UPI and they give discounts if you use it. Whatsapp pay has recently integrated with UPI.

My monthly UPI transactions are around 20-30K. There are a lot of middle class people like me who have similar UPI usage. Even if you just take a conservative estimate of 50 million people (phonepe alone has close to 300 million active users) with a similar UPI usage, then you get transactions worth 15-20 billion dollars per month with just household bills
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by arvin »

csaurabh wrote:
yensoy wrote: Is it really the case that over one fourth of our GDP is transacted through UPI? What are the big payments here? Does this include business-to-business transfers, or salary payments for large segments of workers?
Is UPI just a payment interface or does the term generically cover all sorts of online payment like NEFT/IMPS/RTGS/etc ? If the latter then I can believe the 1/4th of GDP number.
UPI does not cover NEFT, IMPS or RTGS. Its purely mobile number based but can be used either on mobile or using web based interface.
I would beleive the 1/4 GDP number since it dominates day to day transactions in all shops and small business. People use it to pay for at lower range Rs 20 onion pakhoda right upto Rs 10000 or more for any shopping or family need.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Manish_P »

Suraj wrote: I haven't seen analytical data on the transactions from UPI. Generally this should be VERY tightly maintained because it's worth its weight in gold and should never leave firewalled Indian data storage with strict data localization laws protecting it. UPI has already completely decimated western payment processing services like MC/Visa .
+1

However within the UPI app ecosystem it is the like of Google Pay, Phone Pay etc which dominate. Desi ones like BHIM which started around the same time are lagging behind. And Whatsapp Pay is expected to give a huge challenge to google pay.

This is from June 2021

Platform - Transactions in May (in million) - Transactions in June (in million) - Market share (in terms of transaction volume)
PhonePe - 1149.84 - 1292.71 - 46.04%
Google Pay - 880.59 - 972.26 - 34.63%
Paytm Payments Bank - 290.69 - 326.53 - 11.63%
Amazon Pay - 58.35 - 51.34 - 1.83%
Yes Bank apps - 21.08 - 24.72 - 0.88%

PS -
Google pay started as Gpay with gifting of Rs 50 to each user on his first transaction. I know a couple of my friends who sent Rs 1 to each of their family member and got Rs 50 for the first transaction and subsequently some Rs 50 amount for each first transaction done by the referred ones in that week. Later on (continuing even now)Google gives some or the other cashbacks as instant rewards after every few transactions. One of my friends has so far got Rs 3000 total, i have so far got around Rs 600. Result - They forgot all about using Desi BHIM once they got hooked on Google pay 'rewards'.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

@TheWolfpackIN
Report: India will roll out a mega-multibillion-dollar capital and manufacturing support plan to stimulate the country's semiconductor production.

Discussions on with leading semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC, Intel, AMD, Fujitsu, United Microelectronics Corp etc.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

csaurabh wrote:
yensoy wrote: Is it really the case that over one fourth of our GDP is transacted through UPI? What are the big payments here? Does this include business-to-business transfers, or salary payments for large segments of workers?
Is UPI just a payment interface or does the term generically cover all sorts of online payment like NEFT/IMPS/RTGS/etc ? If the latter then I can believe the 1/4th of GDP number.
What’s to believe ? Literally just add up the transaction value data on the UPI for prior 12 months. These are not hopeful estimates. They’re literally just data off UPI stats site I’ve been accumulating over a long time, along with a bunch of other data points I track,

This is such strange language, as if it’s a Twitter or WhatsApp post. Just dump the data from npci.org.in into an excel , sum last 12 rows of monthly value and optionally divide by exchange rate for USD. It will be $852B .
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 519261.cms
Gold had a blockbuster Dhanteras this year
Gold sales have bettered pre-Covid levels this Dhanteras on Tuesday at 50 tonnes, almost 20 tonnes more than the 2019 Dhanteras on the back of widespread vaccination, fewer infections, and lower price of the yellow metal.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 506909.cms

Witnessed strong momentum in footfalls for past 3 quarters: Kalyan Jewellers
Kalyan Jewellers Ltd been witnessing a strong momentum in footfalls and revenue for the past three quarters, starting from the same period during the last financial year (Q3FY21), the company said in a regulatory filing.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by saumitra_j »

That is not correct as far as I know - everybody still needs to use BHIM which stands for Bharat Interface for Money. The BHIM App was only a reference app and GOI's strategy (absolutely correct IMHO) has been to create Reference App and the core Infrastructure but let private companies take over for the actual apps and innovation. This govt has been super sophisticated in getting their digital strategy right! I had the honour of interacting with the Adhaar / India stack architect and those guys are thinking way beyond anybody else!! e.g. thanks to UPI, it is possible to offer loan in India on future cash flows as a collateral instead of some kind of credit rating which, as we all know is less than perfect. It is a true innovation!! Check this link
Moving on from ratings criteria for grant of loans, banks are likely to focus on cash flow-based lending in times to come, a top executive of UCO Bank has said. "Banks will focus on cash flow based lending in times to come and this has already been started by SBI," Ajay Vyas, Executive Director, UCO Bank said at a virtual panel discussion on Redefining Corporate Financing in New Normal organized by PHD Chamber on December 23, 2020. ..
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Manish_P »

^ I am a non-techie mango man, so I would defer to your knowledge. If you are saying that all the private apps like Google pay, PhonePe etc are just a UI layer over the UPI backend system then is not the BHIM app also a UI layer over the UPI backend system?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by saumitra_j »

That is correct, BHIM App was always a reference app from GOI. It only does money transfer but nothing beyond that. Gpay, Phone pay offer quite a few value added services. All have to use BHIM interface. UPI, Adhaar, eKYC - the so called India stack is a very well thought out digital architecture. Our fundamental economic problem that the digital architecture has to solve is extremely high volume but relatively low value of transactions and it has done a wonderful job at that! One interesting side effect of success of UPI is that Credit Card companies are losing out big time: Many merchants are happily using UPI / QR code based payments and have gotten rid of their credit card machines due to high merchant charges.

Here is an article on BHIM losing market share. Key point from NPCI:
In response to queries from Mint, NPCI said that the intent of creating the BHIM app was to enable programme partners to use this as a starter app to become UPI compatible and allow their customers the convenience of using the UPI platform. “When it was created for the UPI platform two years ago, there were around 15 apps for UPI available. Today, we have more than 100 apps that have an interface with UPI. It was to create a BHIM-UPI app ecosystem where hundreds of apps were made available to the consumer," NPCI said.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Manish_P »

Thanks. I got now what you meant by a 'reference App'. And while I am a little bit more informed now, I still wish that a Desi app would take the lead (just like I had earlier wished for Rupay cards to trounce Visa and MC)..
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

An architecture like this needs a reference application that defines the use case . Without it, it is like pointing to a worker to a set of tools and raw material and tell them to build something with no blueprint or mockup.

The BHIM app was never meant to compete as a FinTech solution against private parties - it offers a reference implementation of what can be done, and more crucially, asserts the government's backing of this platform as something they're completely behind. You cannot go from $5 billion a year in the first year, to $100B a MONTH in the fifth without extremely strong network effect driven from the top.

We see China spin up initiative that go from small to world beating scale in very little time. UPI is us doing that - even more expansively than them despite their several years headstart on this. At the current rate we're approaching 40% of global RT payments by volume, which is the kind of shock-n-awe rate of growth we see from them, but now we see us building out technology at that scale of operation.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by milindc »

csaurabh wrote:
Is UPI just a payment interface or does the term generically cover all sorts of online payment like NEFT/IMPS/RTGS/etc ? If the latter then I can believe the 1/4th of GDP number.
Just UPI. IMPS/NEFT/RTGS are counted separately.
UPI has become the de-facto medium including salaries for informal jobs like Dhobi, Gardener, Grocery payments etc.

Unique thing is that it is zero-cost for all participants (user and vendor). Sincerely hope Visa/MC are decimated in India. Amazed at the pace of adoption of UPI across India. This is one of the silver lining from the pandemic. Very vendor adopted it very rapidly.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Bart S »

saumitra_j wrote:That is correct, BHIM App was always a reference app from GOI. It only does money transfer but nothing beyond that. Gpay, Phone pay offer quite a few value added services. All have to use BHIM interface. UPI, Adhaar, eKYC - the so called India stack is a very well thought out digital architecture. Our fundamental economic problem that the digital architecture has to solve is extremely high volume but relatively low value of transactions and it has done a wonderful job at that! One interesting side effect of success of UPI is that Credit Card companies are losing out big time: Many merchants are happily using UPI / QR code based payments and have gotten rid of their credit card machines due to high merchant charges.

Here is an article on BHIM losing market share. Key point from NPCI:
In response to queries from Mint, NPCI said that the intent of creating the BHIM app was to enable programme partners to use this as a starter app to become UPI compatible and allow their customers the convenience of using the UPI platform. “When it was created for the UPI platform two years ago, there were around 15 apps for UPI available. Today, we have more than 100 apps that have an interface with UPI. It was to create a BHIM-UPI app ecosystem where hundreds of apps were made available to the consumer," NPCI said.
BHIM is not any kind of interface, it is just an app, and a mediocre one at that. The real mechanism/interface is UPI, which in turn is a wrapper around IMPS which has been around for a long time.

IMPS lets bank account to bank account transactions take place. It has worked brilliantly and allows instant transfer of money but was a bit tedious as you needed to know somebody's bank account number and IFSC code, then register that person as a payee (typically by logging into the bank's website and typing 3 passwords - login, transaction password and OTP), and then you could transfer. Not really convenient for day to day transactions with random people.

UPI abstracts that by letting IMPS payments be quickly and easily made to anybody with a VPA (virtual payment address e.g. timmy@icici) without needing to add them as a payee. This sort of address is also very suitable for being presented in QR code format for customers to scan etc, however it fully uses IMPS as the underlying mechanism for payments.

The dozens of UPI apps (like Bhim or GPay) use the above (UPI over IMPS) mechanism with further ease of use features for the user, like in Gpay you can just select a phone contact and if they have GPay, immediately send money to them, you don't even need to know their virtual payment ID. Frankly, the rewards in GPay are hardly worthwhile nowadays, the reason that most people use it is that it exists on all/most phones and you don't even need to bother about scanning or keying in somebody's VPA.
Manish_P wrote:Thanks. I got now what you meant by a 'reference App'. And while I am a little bit more informed now, I still wish that a Desi app would take the lead (just like I had earlier wished for Rupay cards to trounce Visa and MC)..
PhonePe is desi (though owned by Walmart now) and so is PayTM (in a manner of speaking). In any case, this is less important, the main thing is that everything is based on UPI+IMPS and these apps are just a wrapper and as Suraj mentioned it is really important to ensure that they don't have access to mine Indian user transaction data for any purpose.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

One of the fascinating data points from the UPI raw data is this:
* Average monthly transaction value has been range-bound for the entire life of UPI. With a couple of months as exceptions, it has always been between Rs.1500-1800 .
* All value growth is therefore volume growth. It's not that the Rupee value being enhanced by a few large transactions - it's entirely volume.

The implication here is clear - it's driven by more people using it for similar use cases. The scale of growth is such that in its 5th year is's still over doubling YoY. The 5 year CAGR is 180%.

So far since start of this fiscal year it is accelerating - from 24 billion transactions in TTM to March 2021, to 34.5 billion in the TTM to Oct 2021. TTM transaction value grew from $550 billion in March to $852 billion in Oct - a 44% growth in volume and 55% growth in TTM value, in just 7 months.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://www.livemint.com/economy/india- ... 46550.html
India services activity in October rises at fastest pace in 10 years: PMI survey
The recovery of the Indian service sector was extended to October with the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Services PMI index signalling the strongest rate of growth in ten-and-a-half years. The index rose to 58.4, from 55.2 in September as the expansion in services activity extended to three months.
The survey said that overall “private sector output in India increased at a sharper rate in October as growth quickened among both manufacturers and service providers. The Composite PMI Output Index rose from 55.3 in September to 58.7, signalling the strongest monthly expansion since January 2012."
-October data highlighted a sixteenth successive monthly increase in input costs

-New orders rise at joint-fastest pace since July 2011

-Indian firms were able to secure a healthy intake of new work despite charging more for their services.

-Services companies continued to hire additional workers in October. Although moderate, the pace of job creation quickened from September to the strongest since February 2020

-Although service providers were confident that business activity would increase over the course of the coming 12 months, the overall level of sentiment was little-changed from September and well below its long-run average.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://www.livemint.com/economy/india- ... 96091.html
India manufacturing PMI hits 8-month high in October
India's manufacturing activity gained momentum in October, hitting an eight-month high, as companies scaled up production in anticipation of improvement in demand, a private survey showed.


Data released by the IHS Markit showed Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.9 in October expanding for the fourth consecutive month even as it stayed below the February reading of 57.5. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in economic activity and a number below that signals contraction.
The second devastating wave of coronavirus pandemic had hit the country in March, affecting manufacturing activity. Rising from 53.7 in September, the latest data print is indicative of strongest improvement in overall operating conditions since February.

The data analytics firm said, amid reports of improved market confidence, rising requirements among clients and successful marketing, new orders continued to expand in October. “While strong growth of both sales and production were noted in each of the three broad areas of the manufacturing sector, it was in intermediate goods that the sharpest rates of expansion were recorded," it added.


In addition to reporting a substantial increase in total new orders, Indian companies observed a notable pick-up in international demand for their goods. “New export work rose at a solid pace that was the quickest in three months," it added.

Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at IHS Markit, said manufacturing sector growth in India continued to gather momentum, with October data showing notably quicker expansions in new orders, production and input purchasing. "With companies gearing up for further improvements in demand by building up their stocks, it looks like manufacturing activity will continue to expand throughout the third quarter of fiscal year 2021-22 should the pandemic remain under control. Upbeat business confidence and projects in the pipeline should also support production in the coming months," she added.

However, De Lima said rising input cost inflation which accelerated substantially in October to a near eight-year high is a matter of concern. “Strong global demand for scarce raw materials continued to push up prices for these items. Some manufacturers hiked their fees in response, but for now the overall rate of charge inflation was moderate. Despite the overall improvement in operating conditions, jobs failed to increase. This was often linked to sufficient capacity to deal with current workloads and government norms surrounding shift work."
AshishA
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by AshishA »

https://wap.business-standard.com/artic ... 886_1.html

Diwali festive sale crosses Rs 1.25 trn, breaks all records in 10 yrs: CAIT
People thronged the markets for festival purchases and helped generate business worth Rs 1.25 trillion, which is a record trade figure in the past 10 years on the occasion of Diwali, said Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT).

CAIT, which represents about 70 million traders, said such massive shopping has ended the economic slowdown in business which persisted for the past two years. It has also awakened the spark of better business prospects among the business community in the near future.

Excited and encouraged by tremendous Diwali business, the traders across the country are now gearing up for wedding season sales scheduled to start on November 14, said CAIT.

“In this year's Diwali festival, there is an estimated business of about Rs 1.25 lakh crore rupees in the entire country which is a record figure ever attained in the last decade,” said CAIT National President BC Bhartia and Secretary General Praveen Khandelwal. “In Delhi alone, this business was about Rs 25,000 crore.”

Bhartia and Khandelwal said that this time Chinese goods were not sold at all in the markets across the country and the special emphasis of the customers was on the purchase of Indian goods, due to which China suffered a direct loss of business worth more than Rs 50,000 crore.

The traditional items of the Diwali festival in demand were mostly earthen lamps, the colourful decor of earthen diyas, candles and paper mache lamps which gave a substantial business to small potters, craftsmen, handicraftsmen. Other products which were also in huge demand included sweets, dry fruits, footwear, watches, toys, home decor and fashion clothing.

Bhartia and Khandelwal said that this year, gold jewellery and silverware were purchased for more than Rs 9000 crore. This Diwali also brought a sizeable business to the tune of Rs 15,000 crore for packaging commodities. This Diwali has inspired traders across the country to adopt new ways of doing business in view of new opportunities and great potential for future business in India.

The first week of online festive sales in October, where various e-commerce firms participated, saw 23 per cent year-over-year sales growth in 2021. This means goods worth $4.6 billion (Rs 32,000 crore) have been sold online from brands and sellers during the festive sales, according to the latest report released by homegrown firm RedSeer Consulting.

RedSeer claimed that it has been seen that Flipkart Group emerged as the leader during the festive sales with an impressive 64 per cent market share.

Earlier, RedSeer Consulting had forecasted a sale of $4.8 billion in the first week of the festive sale. Further, the overall online shopper base grew by about 20 per cent compared to last year with Tier II contributing to about 61 per cent of all shoppers. Also, the overall GMV (gross merchandise value) per shopper has grown by 1.04X –indicating an inherent aspiration in the shopper.

E-commerce firms Amazon and Flipkart recently said the early trends of their festive sales event reflected increased participation from tier 2 and 3 cities. Amazon’s month-long Great Indian Festival 2021 and Flipkart’s The Big Billion Days started early in October.

Amazon recently said that its month-long Great Indian Festival (GIF) has seen the biggest ever shopping activity for its sellers and brand partners on Amazon.in, bringing services to millions of customers across the country. GIF started at midnight of October 2 with Prime Early Access and went live for all customers on October 3. Customers had access to the crores of product selection from sellers on Amazon including unique products from lakhs of Small and Medium Businesses (SMBs).

Customers from 99.7 per cent pin codes shopped during the month-long festive event. More customers shopped on Amazon than ever before, with 79 per cent of new customers coming from tier 2 and 3 towns like Ernakulam, Guntur, Krishna and Godavari. Customers experienced the Great Indian Festival in English, Hindi, Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam, and Kannada and the newly launched Bangla and Marathi along with voice shopping in Hindi and English. Local Shops on Amazon sellers clocked a 2x spike and sold over 10 products every minute.

As Bharat gets ready for 5G, more than 84 per cent of mid-range segment of smartphones bought on Amazon were 5G ready. More than one million customers purchased a smartphone on Amazon for the first time. About 1 in 6 smartphones and 1 out of 4 TVs sold during this time had Alexa Built in or worked with Alexa. Over 120 audio products were purchased every minute. Amazon’s voice assistant Alexa answered over 36 million requests during the Amazon Great Indian Festival 2021.

With the country’s online market projected to soar to $1 trillion, players such as Amazon, Walmart-owned Flipkart, Reliance's JioMart and Tata Group, are betting big on e-commerce and are in fierce competition with each other.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 053585.cms
India's poised to grow like it did in 2003-10, says Jefferies
The Indian economy is poised for a repeat performance of growth last seen between 2003 and 2010 led by corporate deleveraging and profitability, lower bad assets and demand for housing, Jefferies said.

India's economic growth averaged 8.5% to 9% between 2003 and 2010, up from the 5.5%-to-6% average before that.

The US brokerage analysed six key components of the economic cycle: Demand for housing, drop in bank NPAs, corporate profitability, interest rates, corporate leverage and capex revival.

"Between 1997 and 2004, bank gross NPA ratio moved down from 16% to 8%. Similarly, the Indian banking system's gross NPA has moved down from 12% in March 2018 to 7% now and alongside a provisioning jump, the net NPAs are down 59%," Jefferies said. "Provision costs are off drastically. While banks are still risk-averse, we believe that the stage is now set for an increase in risk appetite. Strong capability and seven-year high RoEs further support lending growth."
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vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 568398.cms
India's economic recovery gains momentum in recent months: PHDCCI Economy GPS Index
he PHDCCI Economy GPS Index for October 2021 increased to 131 as compared with 113.1 in the previous month. During the April-October 2021 period, it stood at 114.8 as compared with 78.7 in the previous financial year, the chamber stated.
GST collections indicate the momentum of business activity, passenger vehicle sales is a broad indicator of demand activity in the economy and the movement of the Sensex indicates the mood of both domestic and foreign investors, the chamber said.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 559167.cms
We’ll have to see if the higher levels of GST collection can be maintained post the festival season… But, as of now, things are looking up. Even bank credit is showing signs of recovery,” said Sabnavis. G Chokkalingam, managing director at Equinomics Research, said most high-frequency indicators – such as diesel sales, truck and rail freight rates, spatial distribution of monsoon, water storage levels in reservoirs, life insurance premiums and domestic pharmaceutical formulation sales– are showing an upward trend.
“There’s strong recovery, but it is biased towards the organised sector and mid-to high-income earners, and is now restricted to urban pockets. There could be stress among MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises) and low-income households.”
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://www.livemint.com/economy/india- ... 46550.html
India services activity in October rises at fastest pace in 10 years: PMI survey
The recovery of the Indian service sector was extended to October with the seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Services PMI index signalling the strongest rate of growth in ten-and-a-half years. The index rose to 58.4, from 55.2 in September as the expansion in services activity extended to three months.
The survey said that overall “private sector output in India increased at a sharper rate in October as growth quickened among both manufacturers and service providers. The Composite PMI Output Index rose from 55.3 in September to 58.7, signalling the strongest monthly expansion since January 2012."
-October data highlighted a sixteenth successive monthly increase in input costs

-New orders rise at joint-fastest pace since July 2011

-Indian firms were able to secure a healthy intake of new work despite charging more for their services.

-Services companies continued to hire additional workers in October. Although moderate, the pace of job creation quickened from September to the strongest since February 2020
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Prem Kumar »

Since GDP is the total value of all transactions and UPI is already capturing a large % of it, soon we will have economists calculate India's GDP by summing up UPI transactional value and applying an X multiplier to it!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by AkshaySG »

Deleted. There's plenty of positive economic news to track. Let's track that instead.
Last edited by Suraj on 09 Nov 2021 02:55, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Politics stays off here.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by VinodTK »

SoftBank has deployed $3 billion in India this year, can invest up to $10 billion in 2022
Manish Singh
Thu, November 11, 2021, 10:44 AM

SoftBank Group chief executive Rajeev Misra said the fund has invested $3 billion in Indian companies this year and can invest $5 billion to $10 billion next year, the latest aggressive play by a top investment firm in the South Asian nation, where young firms have raised over a record $20 billion this year.

“If we find the right companies, we could invest $5 billion to $10 billion in 2022,” said Misra at a virtual conference on Thursday, adding the caveat that SoftBank will explore such opportunities “at the right valuations.”

Misra said the firm has slowed the pace of investment in China, but will continue to stay in it as the Asian economy is a major center of AI in the world.

Scores of global investors deployed tens of billions of dollars in India in the past decade as they searched for early winners in the world’s second-most populous nation. The dealflow activities have surged significantly this year as Tiger Global, SoftBank, Falcon Edge Capital and Sequoia Capital India have aggressively chased deals and backed firms at record valuation jumps.

Tiger Global, in particular, has backed over two dozen startups, many still in early stages of their journeys, in India this year. The firm reportedly told shareholders earlier this year that India was one of the top priorities with its new fund.
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ArjunPandit
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by ArjunPandit »

1. India had more unicorns than China
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/da ... 087689.ece
this is a booster that economy can use well

2. Retail investors can directly invest in GOI GILTs
https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 356_1.html
This is a fundamental shift. Earlier risk free investing was performed through banks. That intermediation is being gradually stopped, requiring banks to trim up and perform the their core operation of "maturity transformation" of short liabilities to long term assets.

3. RBI organizing hackathon. Nothing major but this is a mindset change that india is going through for fairly some time..
https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_Press ... prid=52533

there are some fundamental changes happening with indian economy ..the only risk i see is political destabilization of 0.5 war..but some bottle necks are sytematically done away with
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Prasanna Viswanathan. @prasannavishy
Great chart. State-wise Investment outlook for the Rs.1.97 Lakh Crores Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Schemes for 13 key sectors.
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vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://www.livemint.com/economy/indias ... 69027.html
India’s overall exports jumped to $56.51 billion in October, exhibiting a positive growth of 35.16% over the same period last year and a positive growth of 29.13% over October 2019, the Ministry of Commerce & Industry said on Monday.
India’s overall exports (merchandise and services combined) in April-October were estimated to be $369.39 billion, registering a positive growth of 39.83% over the same period last year and 19.97% over April-October 2019.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/fin ... we-using-o

Why is india not anywhere in this list
vijayk
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

kit wrote:https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/fin ... we-using-o

Why is india not anywhere in this list
Link was not working

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckins ... _final.pdf

ZERO data on India
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