Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8760
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

new chip opportunities if heavy weights like Samsung shift chip manufacturing from china
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8760
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Image
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8760
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Image
AkshaySG
BRFite
Posts: 407
Joined: 30 Jul 2020 08:51

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by AkshaySG »

vijayk wrote:.
I hope that results in just as many actual orders too.. "Booking" only requires a fee of 15-20,000 rs and people usually book multiple high in demand vehicles but buy only 1 whichever suits their timelines, desire etc the most
Shwetank
BRFite
Posts: 117
Joined: 12 Aug 2004 01:28

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Shwetank »

S_Madhukar wrote:We dont like rNdtv but generally I find these programmes useful with Ruchir Sharma.
India's Economic Progress @75
His bottomline -
1. we need more women participation in workforce from 21% to around 45%
.....
Why is this an important goal? Keep seeing this where Indian authorities & groups jumping on this equity bandwagon.. recent western ideology mainly to just promote more cheap workers & consumers. With modern (corporate) type jobs, easy way to erode families and culture...
S_Madhukar
BRFite
Posts: 513
Joined: 27 Mar 2019 18:15

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by S_Madhukar »

@Shwetankji are you saying women should not have professional jobs or run businesses? Both my parents worked and I agree they were easier times compared to the corporate hustle today but if we can encourage WFH where possible and flex times surely it is a win-win?
To my mind in India far worse situations have fallen on a family if the husband suddenly passes away, loses a job or divorces and housewives have a serious problem sustaining themselves and the family...
Kaivalya
BRFite
Posts: 430
Joined: 19 Oct 2018 21:51

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Kaivalya »

S_Madhukar wrote:@Shwetankji are you saying women should not have professional jobs or run businesses? Both my parents worked and I agree they were easier times compared to the corporate hustle today but if we can encourage WFH where possible and flex times surely it is a win-win?
To my mind in India far worse situations have fallen on a family if the husband suddenly passes away, loses a job or divorces and housewives have a serious problem sustaining themselves and the family...
Madhukarji - it is not to say women should not join workforce. I saw that question as : How is it a foregone conclusion that women not joining the workforce is the reason for not so optimal growth? Or is this some western formula unexamined and applied for the brown masses?
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12060
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Vayutuvan »

AkshaySG wrote: I hope that results in just as many actual orders too.. "Booking" only requires a fee of 15-20,000 rs and people usually book multiple high in demand vehicles but buy only 1 whichever suits their timelines, desire etc the most
Do they lose the booking deposit or only the interest they could have gotten in a bank FD?
nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1638
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by nandakumar »

Kaivalya wrote:
S_Madhukar wrote:@Shwetankji are you saying women should not have professional jobs or run businesses? Both my parents worked and I agree they were easier times compared to the corporate hustle today but if we can encourage WFH where possible and flex times surely it is a win-win?
To my mind in India far worse situations have fallen on a family if the husband suddenly passes away, loses a job or divorces and housewives have a serious problem sustaining themselves and the family...
Madhukarji - it is not to say women should not join workforce. I saw that question as : How is it a foregone conclusion that women not joining the workforce is the reason for not so optimal growth? Or is this some western formula unexamined and applied for the brown masses?
There is no empirical data driven research that shows women in the workforce add more to GDP than men. At least none that I am aware of. We need more jobs to be created within the economy which empowers those so employed and those dependent on them to improve their socio economic conditions. Gender has no particular significance except perhaps at some anecdotal level.
Bart S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2938
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:03

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Bart S »

Vayutuvan wrote:
AkshaySG wrote: I hope that results in just as many actual orders too.. "Booking" only requires a fee of 15-20,000 rs and people usually book multiple high in demand vehicles but buy only 1 whichever suits their timelines, desire etc the most
Do they lose the booking deposit or only the interest they could have gotten in a bank FD?
Generally the deposit is fully refundable till the time the car is allocated (in the OEM's system/factory) so just the interest.
Bart S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2938
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:03

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Bart S »

nandakumar wrote:
Kaivalya wrote:
Madhukarji - it is not to say women should not join workforce. I saw that question as : How is it a foregone conclusion that women not joining the workforce is the reason for not so optimal growth? Or is this some western formula unexamined and applied for the brown masses?
There is no empirical data driven research that shows women in the workforce add more to GDP than men. At least none that I am aware of. We need more jobs to be created within the economy which empowers those so employed and those dependent on them to improve their socio economic conditions. Gender has no particular significance except perhaps at some anecdotal level.
It's not men vs women in terms of GDP contribution, the point is that lack of women's participation in the workforce reduces the potential productivity and achievable GDP of the country. Compare Bangladesh with Pakistan for example.
S_Madhukar
BRFite
Posts: 513
Joined: 27 Mar 2019 18:15

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by S_Madhukar »

I certainly agree that we want most able men in the workforce. initially as the country spends more on core infrastructure or manufacturing manual labour might be more men focused and as we enter more services women should participate more or make up for additional labour needs. Ideally yes we make enough money such that women can raise strong families and not have to work too much but I am not sure we can force an outcome here.
We need to encourage women and not force or stigmatise women who don’t want to be in full time work.
Having said that Indian picture is mixed where we already have a strong service sector where women participate.
If anything we must use women to diversify into different sectors for our own society and not just worry about participation in only cost intensive sectors like manufacturing etc. Let them become good teachers, workers even so that they can earn better equality rather than having reservations and govt mandated policies
Kaivalya
BRFite
Posts: 430
Joined: 19 Oct 2018 21:51

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Kaivalya »

^^^

Let's rule out the simple explanations: women should not be stigmatized, deterred , should be free to do what they want from an economic perspective, need not be restricted to teaching, service sector etc etc. This issue is not about bias but about economic well being of a country ( for which gdp can be a proxy)


Here is some data points from US ( data is easily available )

https://www.magnifymoney.com/news/dual- ... lds-study/

More than half of U.S. households (53.3%) were dual income in 2019, up from 51.9% in 2010.

While California and texas have high dual income - rest of the cities are close to 24%

Dual-income households earn only 1.19 times more than overall households, on average, in the same city,

While every person contributing to GDP is good - other socio economic reasons have to be weighed in.

https://economistwritingeveryday.com/20 ... ouseholds/
As a final piece of evidence that women really do want to work, rather than need to as a financial necessity (the so-called “two-income trap”), we can look to other survey evidence. For example, the General Social Survey has asked a question for years about whether you would keep working even if you had enough money to “live as comfortably as you would like for the rest of your life.” The variable name is “richwork,” and sociologists have long used this variable answer various questions about whether people are working for out of financial necessity or for other personal benefits
Bottom line: most women don’t say they are working because they need to financially, and that number is similar to the number of men that say the same thing.


We can try not to do equal-equal business when it comes to family. We all have different roles to play all equally important - and dont have to translate to economic value all the time. And that consideration is not an hindrance to the gdp/economic well being of a country
nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1638
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by nandakumar »

If we assume profit maximisation as the goal for a business (be it private or public sector) why would it deliberately avoid picking the best talent to fill up a position be it a man or a woman? So the Mihir Sharma argument that we need more women participation in the workforce is a strawman argument.
Raja
BRFite
Posts: 342
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Raja »

It is a waste of potential for the nation to have otherwise highly educated and qualified women not joining the workforce. In the end it is a choice and if that is what you want and can afford, more power to you. However, more often than not, this wasted potential is due to current cultural norms.
Bart S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2938
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:03

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Bart S »

nandakumar wrote:If we assume profit maximisation as the goal for a business (be it private or public sector) why would it deliberately avoid picking the best talent to fill up a position be it a man or a woman? So the Mihir Sharma argument that we need more women participation in the workforce is a strawman argument.
I think that you have misread him.

He is not talking about the woke type diversity/inclusion programs in high-tech or white-collar jobs. He is talking about the percentage of overall population in the workforce at the national level. For example most of the workers in garment export factories (a key factor, some would argue sole driver, for Bangladesh's economic growth in recent years) are women. Compare that with Pakistan where the same women would sit at home and produce excess babies or at best do menial jobs as maids etc, and you have much better contribution to the economy in Bangladesh.

This is especially true for labour intensive, tedious, but not heavy duty blue collar jobs like electronics/appliance assembly and garment production, where most (or at least a significant proportion) of the workforce is women whether you consider China, Bangladesh, Vietnam or even India. And this is just one sector, there is a lot of potential to be tapped, even encouraging entrepreneurship among women who are not formally employed.

Also, this is not Mihir S Sharma (an anti-India BIF type) but Ruchir Sharma who isn't pro-India either and earlier used to dismiss India as an also-ran when compared with China, but is being taught a few lessons by the CCP's mismanagement of the virus and real estate meltdowns.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8760
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Looks like RBI is asking for public comments on UPi fees fixed vs percentage
Tushar Gupta
@Tushar15_

FAKE NEWS ALERT:

RBI is not considering charges on UPI transactions, nor any such thing is in the works. A paper was circulated last week which elaborated on changes in payment systems, and a question on this was MERELY ASKED for public feedback.

No policy change on the cards.

https://twitter.com/FinMinIndia/status/ ... 1658192897
Image

Official clarification ... Rumours were being spread by lot of haters
Last edited by vijayk on 21 Aug 2022 22:07, edited 3 times in total.
Kaivalya
BRFite
Posts: 430
Joined: 19 Oct 2018 21:51

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Kaivalya »

Raja wrote:It is a waste of potential for the nation to have otherwise highly educated and qualified women not joining the workforce. In the end it is a choice and if that is what you want and can afford, more power to you. However, more often than not, this wasted potential is due to current cultural norms.
Raja saar,

Disagreed for the socio economic reasons posted above.

Education is not for income generation or economic output purposes only . It is not wasted potential if it is not converted to capital. If that is the case there should be very little art, philosophy, sport or even basic research etc. This is true for men or women. It is not to say everyone should be doing JNU type phd... hence the argument for subtlety and nuance. The point is : it is not given that policies should be created to force women into the workforce like in education just because west had to increase workforce due to wars etc.
V_Raman
BRFite
Posts: 1379
Joined: 04 Sep 2008 22:25

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by V_Raman »

How much does the govt spend on printing currency? How does that compare to govt maintainin a UPI infrastructure? Are they apples to apples comparison?
Raja
BRFite
Posts: 342
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Raja »

If you say so. I can think of many examples of rich families getting a highly educated and smart trophy wife for their sons. After marriage, the wife was expected to host tea parties and join lions club. End result was that the wife was bored out of her mind. In at least two instances, when the couple moved stateside, the wife was more successful than the husband. And guess what? They are still managing a great family life with children who know more about sanskriti than most back in India.

The point is not about blindly copying the west but it is an awful waste of human resources when half of our population is expected to be subservient to the other gender. And west does not have any ownership over nari Shakti, we have plenty of examples in our culture and religion.
nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 1638
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by nandakumar »

On the question of Imposing a charge on UPI transaction we still do not know if the merchant or the customer will have to make a payment for the convenience. But this much is certain the intermediaries will be paid. This becomes clear when you read the discussion note put out by the RBI. They are not asking the public for their opinion on whether there should be a fee. They are only asking if this should be by way of a subsidy or is there any other more efficient way of remunerating them. Even the Finance ministry clarification issued later makes it clear that the intermediaries will have to be remunerated.
On the one hand there is a benefit to the customer. In the sense that he/she avoids having to go to the bank and there is a saving in labour. It is like your ordering your a meal from your favourite restaurant and the food delivery app not only charges a fee from you but also secures a discount from the restaurant. The merchant secures a benefit. He now has established a digitally verifiable record of the volume of business and on the basis of which he can negotiate a cash credit facility for his working capital needs.
On the other hand the savings in labour (having to go to the bank branch for withdrawing cash) for the customer practically vanishes at individual transaction level as the customer can withdraw cash in bulk and can store it at home. Unlike food which can't be chosen in advance and stored and indeed when it comes to food, people prefer to order on the basis of a whim rather than plan for a whole month of visits to the restaurant. A case can similarly be made for the illusory nature of the benefit that UPI payment offers to the merchant because if he is already bank borrower for working capital it isn't too difficult to secure enhancement of credit facilities based on a business plan for the future and supported by past track record borrowing and growth in business volumes. At best there is a marginal advantage for the first time business borrower running a small scale business.
But one entity that most certainly benefits from the introduction of UPI payment infrastructure are the banks themselves. Let me explain. In June 2022, ATM cash withdrawals were to the tune of Rs 2,70 lakh crore. This has remained practically stationery when you consider that even as far back as June 2018, the ATM cash withdrawals were only Rs 2.22 lakh crore. Public need for cash is a function of monies deposited by them in the bank as deposits in the first place. If you have more money in the savings account, it is safe to say your spending too, would correspondingly be higher. What do the numbers show? In June 2018, savings account balances were roughly Rs 40.9 lakh crore. But by June 2022 this has gone up to nearly Rs 70 lakh crore. The fact that despite having a larger balances in their savings account the public have not increased their quantum of cash withdrawals. Now, this could have been possible only if the necessity of having to make frequent trips to ATMs been obviated as they now can settle their purchases through a IMPS transaction or a payment through Paytm/ GooglePay etc. Had this infrastructure not been created banks would have had lesser low-cost deposits (savings account balances) in their books which could not have been profitably deployed in lending. How much would this have been have been? With a near doubling of the deposits in savings accounts, withdrawals through ATMs had been been practically stationary whereas one would have expected on a pro rata basis, a withdrawal level of the order of Rs 4 lakh crore or upwards per month. In other words banks had an extra Rs 2 Lakh crore to deploy in lending throughout the year. If we assume a weighted average cost of lending at 8% per annum banks managed to earn a conservative sum of Rs 16,000 crore in the form of higher interest income. So if anybody has to subsidise the operations of intermediaries it is the banks.
Prasad
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7793
Joined: 16 Nov 2007 00:53
Location: Chennai

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Prasad »

It will be very easily and very very quickly spun that the govt is taxing people for use of their own money on top of whatever tax they are paying as part of a retail transaction. Let's see the govt jump out of that gigantic hole if it pushes any transaction tax on UPI.

Taxes/GST on cheque issual, withdrawal in ATMs are already extremely unpopular but people groan and whine and bear it. UPI is fantasticly popular. This will kill it right quick.
vera_k
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3982
Joined: 20 Nov 2006 13:45

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vera_k »

Looks like this industry changed while we were not looking.

Diamond exports
From a handful of companies growing diamonds in labs in the mid-2000s, there are now about 25 such growers in India.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8760
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Image
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

The more India tends towards a welfare state which delivers basic necessities like food, water, power, cooking gas, education and protection like health care, unemployment aid, reskilling aid, housing aid etc, not to mention freebies that state govt routinely engage in like free bijili, loans written off etc. the more we will need to have "organised labour" whose salaries can be taxed and a high % of population must be working to pay the national bill for all these.

The way modern globalised economies are structured, one cant tax companies, businesses and the wealthy beyond a point (else decreased investment and risk of capital flight) therefore most of the welfare cost is essentially paid for by the beneficiaries themselves.

Working as house wives or other "unorganised" work women do, is of course vital for the economy and the society but brings no money into Govt coffers while they are also beneficiaries. The remark about getting more women folk to work must also be seen from this perspective.
Dilbu
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8266
Joined: 07 Nov 2007 22:53
Location: Deep in the badlands of BRFATA

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Dilbu »

India to witness double digit growth in June quarter, Q1 GDP growth expected at 15.7%
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, on Tuesday said he expects the GDP to clip past 15.7 per cent in the first quarter with more chances of the final numbers printing in higher, while Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the rating agency Icra, said the economy will grow much lower at 13 per cent in the June quarter.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8760
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1563976324888281088

Ethan Mollick @emollick
Don't trust the GDP reports of autocratic countries?

This paper compares growth in city lights to claims of economic growth, and it appears that autocratic regimes over-exaggerate yearly GDP growth by a huge 35%! (& the GDP gap between India & China is smaller than official estimates)
Image

Image

Original paper
https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/720458
KL Dubey
BRFite
Posts: 1753
Joined: 16 Dec 2016 22:34

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by KL Dubey »

^^Good paper. I read it through.

It seems to confirm what I have suspected ever since I joined BRF around 1999 or so, i.e. Chinese fake data/exaggerated estimates have been compounding over the last 20 years and been parroted by western agencies.

It does seem like these agencies and the CCP have a common interest (albeit for different reasons), to make China look very large.

Specifically, according to the paper:

China's actual GDP grew by 3.3X over the 1992-2013 period, but has been grossly falsified to a much higher reported growth of 7X.

India's actual GDP grew by 3X in the same period and its reported GDP growth was just a little higher at 3.3X.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8760
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

KL Dubey wrote:^^Good paper. I read it through.

It seems to confirm what I have suspected ever since I joined BRF around 1999 or so, i.e. Chinese fake data/exaggerated estimates have been compounding over the last 20 years and been parroted by western agencies.

It does seem like these agencies and the CCP have a common interest (albeit for different reasons), to make China look very large.

Specifically, according to the paper:

China's actual GDP grew by 3.3X over the 1992-2013 period, but has been grossly falsified to a much higher reported growth of 7X.

India's actual GDP grew by 3X in the same period and its reported GDP growth was just a little higher at 3.3X.
Imagine this ...

Out leftist scums and filthy journalists started writing in every western media that Modi is coking up numbers since 2014
Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 15043
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

vijayk wrote: Imagine this ...

Out leftist scums and filthy journalists started writing in every western media that Modi is coking up numbers since 2014
Please imagine it in the politics thread, not here. Come on - we've been patient about your regular thread derailment here. Please be more responsible.
yensoy
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2494
Joined: 29 May 2002 11:31
Location: USA

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

GDP is a tricky thing. As per GDP (or per-capita GDP), Ireland is one of the richest countries of the world. Is it really true? Yes the Irish are better off these days than before, but they are far from being "rich". Ireland's inflated GDP numbers, to an extent, come from fancy transfer pricing and tax mischief done by highly paid tax planners wanting to exploit the lower corporate tax rates prevalent in Ireland.

There are games that can be played and for sure dragon's politicians are doing exactly that to goose up their figures and look good in front of eleven. This has been going on for many years, decades even; however the fact is that their GDP is a multiple of ours and for that reason our own economic growth should be front and center of our agenda.
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8760
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 891585.cms
GDP Q1 Growth Highlights : India's GDP grows in double-digit at 13.5 % in April-June quarter
Wrap Up: All you need to know about today's GDP numbers
India's economy grew by 13.5 per cent in the April-June period this fiscal
The first quarter growth at 13.5 per cent is less than the RBI's projection of 16.2 per cent
Gross Value Added (GVA) grew by 12.7 per cent to Rs 34.41 lakh crore in April-June this year
GVA growth in the farm sector is 4.5 per cent in the first quarter compared to 2.2 per cent a year ago.
GVA growth in the manufacturing sector decelerated sharply to 4.8 per cent during the quarter
GVA growth in mining is 6.5 per cent in the quarter compared to 18 per cent
GVA in the construction sector also decelerated to 16.8 per cent in the quarter from 71.3 per cent
Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services segment grew by 14.7 per cent
GVA growth in the services sector -- trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting -- was 25.7 per cent
Financial, real estate and professional services grew by 9.2 per cent in the first quarter
Public administration, defence and other services posted 26.3 per cent growth
The NSO stated that the Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in Q1 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 64.95 lakh crore.
Image
Apr-Jun capital formation growth at 20.1% vs 62.5% YoY

Apr-Jun govt consumption growth at 1.3% vs -4.8% YoY

Rate of pickup for some sectors lesser than others: Radhika Rao

GDP Q1 Growth LIVE Updates: Gross GDP
The gross domestic product (GDP) had expanded by 20.1 per cent in the corresponding April-June period of 2021-22, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

GDP Q1 Growth LIVE Updates: Mining sector growth at 6.5%
In 2021-22 GVA growth was reported at 18%
venkat_kv
BRFite
Posts: 459
Joined: 05 Dec 2020 21:01

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by venkat_kv »

I have a question to the gurus regarding the numbers for the Apr-Jun that are posted above. Are the numbers calculated based on previous year fiscal and if so does it mean that higher numbers for some of the sectors like Construction, hotel, transport, hospitality and manufacturing are high in QYF22 due to the previous year having lockdowns and covid disruptions?
Bart S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2938
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 00:03

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Bart S »

As a person with only a very crude understanding of economics, I found this discussion on Business Today regarding the latest GDP numbers quite interesting and easy to follow:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uu4GVI701cA
Kaivalya
BRFite
Posts: 430
Joined: 19 Oct 2018 21:51

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Kaivalya »

Apologies...wrong thread ( deleted )
shaun
BRFite
Posts: 1385
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by shaun »

There is a correlation between NPA and Credit cycle . As per RBI 2014 publication , An empirical analysis of trends in gross advances and gross NPAs since June 2000 carried out in this study indicates that NPA growth follows credit growth with a lag. The results bring out the fact that credit growth fed into growth in NPAs in a lagged manner, i.e., 1 per cent rise in credit- GDP ratio increases NPAs growth by 0.4 percentage points (after 11 quarters). Similarly, the disaggregated analysis suggest that 1 percent increase in agriculture credit results subsequently in 0.7 per cent growth in agriculture NPAs after a lag of 12 quarters. The estimates, though tentative6, are even higher in respect of industrial sector, i.e., 1 per cent increase in industrial credit could increase NPAs by 1.26 per cent after a lag of 9 quarters. This underlines the pro-cyclical behaviour of the banking system, wherein asset quality can get compromised during periods of high credit growth and this can result in the creation of NPAs for banks in the later years

For more https://m.rbi.org.in//scripts/Publicati ... 15720#ant1

Can any one here share the latest trend NPA and Credit cycle
vijayk
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8760
Joined: 22 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

venkat_kv wrote:I have a question to the gurus regarding the numbers for the Apr-Jun that are posted above. Are the numbers calculated based on previous year fiscal and if so does it mean that higher numbers for some of the sectors like Construction, hotel, transport, hospitality and manufacturing are high in QYF22 due to the previous year having lockdowns and covid disruptions?
That's true about lower base but this can't continue unless the we are on recovery and growth path

Look at US. It went up in 2020 Q3 but since then slowed down and now in negative growth

Image
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by NRao »

Image
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

Image
Raghuram Rajan waiting for economic crisis in India
Post Reply