Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Kashi
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kashi » 23 Jun 2018 15:17

jpremnath wrote:
nam wrote:Another aspect is Remittance. 60-70 billion per year. More than FDIs and permanent !

Dont count remittances as permanent...A major chunk is from GCC countries as earnings are tax free..All these countries are cutting down on expat labour and made it as a government policy...Another 10 years, we might be getting only half of what we have now...US , UK might be more stable...


I believe what namji may have meant is that remittances are permanent in the sense that they will stay within and will be consumed within the country itself. A one way movement of money if you will.

They may increase or decrease in the future, but the remittances that have already come in are not going out in the same quantities.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby jpremnath » 23 Jun 2018 17:47

Kashi wrote:
jpremnath wrote:Dont count remittances as permanent...A major chunk is from GCC countries as earnings are tax free..All these countries are cutting down on expat labour and made it as a government policy...Another 10 years, we might be getting only half of what we have now...US , UK might be more stable...


I believe what namji may have meant is that remittances are permanent in the sense that they will stay within and will be consumed within the country itself. A one way movement of money if you will.

They may increase or decrease in the future, but the remittances that have already come in are not going out in the same quantities.


My bad...Yes, remittances go a long way in strengthening the domestic spending power. Kerala households gets around 10billIon dollars a year. This is the reason of even with poor industrial output, people of state can show relative affluence. Give it another 10 years, and this will be cut down sharply and the state will go to dogs..

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kiranA » 23 Jun 2018 19:22

Suraj wrote:It seems RBI has already published March 2018 services trade data: $16.8 billion in exports . So full 2017-18 services exports were 175 + 16.8 , or ~$192 billion . Holy crap.

Current fiscal has also started off strongly, with $17.5 billion, an all time high and the first time we've had services exports >$17B a month. Data for April 2017 was $12.9 billion, or close to 40% increase YoY.
Services exports surge 36.1% in April

Monthly gross exports ($30 billion merchandise + $18B services) is close to $50 billion now. When I joined this site, our ANNUAL exports were that much...


Service exports are massively inflated due to presence of software exports where there is major discrepancy in what india counts as exports and what usa for eg. counts as imports. For eg. last year India claimed around 70 billion of IteS exports to USA whereas USA shows total service imports from India as 27 billion. I couldnt get USA imports of specifically software services (they call it BPT) but it will be significantly less than 27 billion. It is due to difference in methodologies. But USA methodologies computes closer the actual flow of money.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 23 Jun 2018 21:36

KiranA, enough of your trolling. The data listed earlier is from OECD, from where a link was presented.

Next nonsensical post from you earns a summary ban.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kiranA » 24 Jun 2018 01:06

Suraj wrote:KiranA, enough of your trolling. The data listed earlier is from OECD, from where a link was presented.

Next nonsensical post from you earns a summary ban.


Your data for service exports is from RBI. I did not contest the data but i was bringing an insight often missed. When people see service exports as X billion dollars they assume reasonably that X dollars flow to India. But that is not how it happens in software exports. RBI simply counts all client invoicing raised by Indian and india based software companies as exports. But in reality much of the work is done onsite and cash doesnt really flow to India. And that explains the vast discrepancy in software exports.

For eg. India claims software exports as 120 billion USD. You can check here https://www.ibef.org/industry/informati ... india.aspx .

Out of which US share is put at 57% to 60% - that is approximately 70 billion USD. You would expect with that figure that US service imports will be significantly higher than 70 billion (as other things such as tourism are included).

However if you look at US imports from India it is only 26.8 billion. You an check here https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/sout ... asia/india . And this 27 odd billion includes other services too such as tourism.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 24 Jun 2018 01:53

kiranA wrote:Your data for service exports is from RBI. I did not contest the data but i was bringing an insight often missed.

Wrong. I posted BOTH RBI *and* OECD links. See the post before the one you quoted.

None of your references prove Indian or OECD data wrong. If anything, it proves US data wrong.
kiranA wrote:When people see service exports as X billion dollars they assume reasonably that X dollars flow to India. But that is not how it happens in software exports.

Wrong again. RBI data is literally receipts vs payments data. They're the central bank through which all forex transactions pass. Their data is the data of the money flowing in and out.
kiranA wrote:I couldnt get USA imports of specifically software services (they call it BPT) but it will be significantly less than 27 billion. It is due to difference in methodologies. But USA methodologies computes closer the actual flow of money.

"I don't have data to support my position but I still assert XYZ contrary to data presented" is trolling. Enough. Stop derailing this thread.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vips » 24 Jun 2018 01:55

Modi wants to double India’s share in world exports to 3.4%.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a new challenge before various government departments and the industry of doubling India’s share in world exports to 3.4 per cent from 1.6 per cent and reducing the dependence on imports by at least 10 per cent to create more jobs and increase the per capita income.

The Prime Minister said that the country should focus on moving towards achieving a double-digit GDP growth, from the present 7-8 per cent growth rate, as the world, too, is keenly watching when India would move to the $1 trillion club.

“This is a time for making pledges and accepting challenges. The Commerce Ministry should pledge to make all efforts to double India’s share in world exports from today’s 1.6 per cent to at least 3.4 per cent. It will lead to more employment opportunities and our per capita income will increase,” Modi said at the foundation stone laying ceremony of Vanijya Bhawan on Friday.

All departments of the government and the export promotion councils will have to try together to achieve this target, he added. The PM, however, did not come up with a specific timeline for achieving the target.

Modi also urged the industry and government departments to work towards reducing imports in sectors such as energy, electronic goods, defence manufacturing, and medical devices.

“Through domestic manufacturing, if we reduce imports by 10 per cent, it could create in the country an increase in income worth Rs 3.5 lakh crore. It will contribute in moving the country towards double-digit GDP,” Modi said.

Citing the example of the mobile phone industry where Indian manufacturers are thriving, the PM said that the electronic goods industry should take inspiration from this.

“In electronic goods, isn’t it a challenge for you all that 65 per cent of our demand is met through imports. Like mobile phones, can we make ourselves self-dependent on manufacture of electronic goods,” the PM said.

The Commerce and Industry Minister, Suresh Prabhu, said that his Ministry will start work on the PM’s idea of building a matrix with details on which States could export what products to which countries.

Located near India Gate, the Vanijya Bhawan is being built on 4.33 acres, belonging to erstwhile Directorate General of Supplies and Disposals. It will accommodate about 1,000 officers and staff and is being planned as a completely paperless office. The building is a green building with all required certifications, an official release said.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kiranA » 24 Jun 2018 02:42

{Deleted. Please note that because of prior ban, your next warning triggers a long ban.}
Last edited by Suraj on 24 Jun 2018 06:28, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Poster warned for trolling.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prasad » 25 Jun 2018 10:53

Does anyone know where we can get more detailed data about our imports? Breakup and share of what gets imported and how much it costs etc.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby James » 25 Jun 2018 14:31

Prasad wrote:Does anyone know where we can get more detailed data about our imports? Breakup and share of what gets imported and how much it costs etc.


Pls refer to this site: http://commerce-app.gov.in/meidb/default.asp

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 25 Jun 2018 20:12

Shishir Bajpai@sbajpai2806

Nomura's EWI index is based on the past 50 financial crisis indicators, which are designed to warn of domestic credit and financial risks.
#TransformingIndia #NewIndia


Image


India showed no signs of domestic, financial risks in 3 years: Nomura

India showed no signs of domestic, financial risks in 3 years: Nomura

India fared well on Nomura’s early warning indicators (EWI) index showing no signs of domestic or financial risks during the last three years. On the other hand, economies of China, Hong Kong, Japan, Canada and Australia threw up several warning signals between 2015-2017, said a Nomura report. The report also observed that emerging markets are much more vulnerable than developed markets with Asia being most risky, led by Hong Kong.
However, for China, the risk is subsiding. Nomura’s EWIs flash signals of potential financial crisis which could occur within the next 12 quarters. The analysis is based on the past 50 financial crisis indicators, which are designed to warn of domestic credit and financial risks, rather than balance of payments risk. In the EWI Index, India has been placed at par with developed countries like United States, United Kingdom, Sweden and France with zero crisis signal for three years ending 2017.
Nomura said that Hong Kong showed a maximum of 52 signals, followed by 33 in case of China and 21 for Thailand. As regards the other BRICS nations, Brazil shows 11 risk indicators, followed by Russia at 5 and South Africa at zero. BRICS is a grouping of 5 major emerging economies- Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 26 Jun 2018 00:07

GSTN is adding tax analytics to enable the tax people to identify evasion from the raw data:
Bad news for GST evaders: GSTN said to design tools for taxmen to analyse data
Almost a year into providing platform for tax collection, GST Network is now developing applications and tools for tax officers to help analyse data of their assessees and check possible evasion, a senior official said. GST Network (GSTN), the company handling the technology backbone for Goods and Services Tax, has over the last 11 months provided a platform for businesses to file their returns and pay taxes every month. GSTN Chief Executive Prakash Kumar said the next focus of the company will be on providing data analytics and improving user interface on the GSTN portal, besides developing backend system for assessment, audit, appeal and advance ruling for 27 states.

Since the roll out of the GST from July 1, 2017, GSTN has handled 11.5 crore returns and processed 376 crore invoices. Currently, over 1.11 crore businesses are registered under the GST regime, of which 63.76 lakh have migrated from the erstwhile service tax and VAT regime, and 47.72 lakh are new registrants. As many as 17.61 lakh businesses have opted for composition scheme under GST.

Kumar further said that GSTN has been sending Management Information System (MIS) reports to tax officers 27 states which are categorised as model 2 states for better understanding of taxpayers in their jurisdiction. “We have provided 27 different MIS report for model 2 states. The tax officers get to see their own jurisdiction data, who their assessees are, return filed, taxes paid. The report has daily, monthly revenue collection list in the jurisdiction, ward-wise collection list, registration details, taxpayers with outstanding liability, disposal of cases, among other things,” he said.

Since July 1 2017:
115 million returns
3.76 billion invoices
11.1 million businesses
4.77 million newly registered businesses, 6.37 million previously registered businesses

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 26 Jun 2018 00:53

https://www.livemint.com/Companies/P3IW ... -jump.html
Foreign capital inflows into Indian real estate market jump 31% to $2.6 billion in 2017: report
The robust growth has put India on the 19th spot among 73 countries, which attracted cross-border capital into their property markets, says a Knight Frank report

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 26 Jun 2018 09:48

{Deleted}

Mod Note: I've deleted all generally idle conversation regarding the EWI metrics. If you're going to post criticisms of that metric here, find out how that metric is generated, and how it triggers. It would benefit this thread more than just speculation and sarcasm.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby souravB » 27 Jun 2018 12:31

India coming out of extreme poverty
this is a very hopeful article.. :D

In the time that it takes you to read this article, several Indians will have escaped the clutches of extreme poverty. In fact, about 44 Indians come out of extreme poverty every minute, one of the fastest rates of poverty reduction in the world. As a result, India has finally shed the dubious distinction of being home to the largest number of poor, with Nigeria taking that unwanted position in May 2018.
If present trends continue, India could drop to No. 3 later this year, with the Democratic Republic of the Congo taking the number 2 spot.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 27 Jun 2018 17:08

^^^ A major milestone of long journey.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 28 Jun 2018 01:20

The original article is here:
The start of a new poverty narrative
According to our projections, Nigeria has already overtaken India as the country with the largest number of extreme poor in early 2018, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo could soon take over the number 2 spot (Figure 1 below). At the end of May 2018, our trajectories suggest that Nigeria had about 87 million people in extreme poverty, compared with India’s 73 million. What is more, extreme poverty in Nigeria is growing by six people every minute, while poverty in India continues to fall. In fact, by the end of 2018 in Africa as a whole, there will probably be about 3.2 million more people living in extreme poverty than there are today.

Image
I'm more than happy to see us give up this world #1 ranking. The fall has been quite dramatic.

2012: 265 million (21% of 1.26B people)
A Global Count of the Extreme Poor in 2012

2015: 172 million
India’s Poverty Rate Falls To 12.4%, Electricity Plays Big Role

2018: 73 million

By 2020-21, we may not even be the country with the most people in extreme poverty in the subcontinent.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Gus » 28 Jun 2018 05:14

Everything played its part...JDY, electricity, low inflation and I would say demo too.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 28 Jun 2018 22:58

Dramatic fall.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 28 Jun 2018 23:07

India may get rid of extreme poverty by 2030, under 3% to remain poor by 2020: Report
India is likely to eliminate extreme poverty by 2030, and less than 3 percent Indians will be poor by 2020, according to a recent study published in a Brookings blog.

About 44 Indians come out of extreme poverty every minute, one of the fastest rates of poverty reduction in the world, and India's rank could come down to number three if this continues, The Times of India reported.

India, which used to be home to the largest number of poor people in the world, was overtaken by Nigeria in May this year.

"At the end of May 2018, our trajectories suggest that Nigeria had about 87 million people in extreme poverty, compared with India's 73 million. What is more, extreme poverty in Nigeria is growing by six people every minute, while poverty in India continues to fall," the newspaper quoted the report as saying.

Extreme poverty is defined as living on less than $1.9 a day.

Nigeria overtakes India in extreme poverty ranking
Nigeria has overtaken India as the country with the largest number of people living in extreme poverty, with an estimated 87 million Nigerians, or around half of the country's population, thought to be living on less than $1.90 a day.

The findings, based on a projection by the World Poverty Clock and compiled by Brookings Institute, show that more than 643 million people across the world live in extreme poverty, with Africans accounting for about two-thirds of the total number.

In Nigeria, as with other countries on the continent, that figure is projected to rise. "By the end of 2018 in Africa as a whole, there will probably be about 3.2 million more people living in extreme poverty than there are today," the researchers write.

Despite being the largest oil producer in Africa, Nigeria has struggled to translate its resource wealth into rising living standards.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 29 Jun 2018 00:00

There are parallels with polio elimination here. For a while, the poverty issue seemed intractable. Between the 1990s and mid 2000s, reduction in extreme poverty, while steady, was nowhere close to the incredible strides in China. We overtook China as the country with the most people in extreme poverty, around 1999. (reference, see fig 1 and fig 2.

Now, we have hit the phase of rapid reduction in poverty. This is a result of targeted economic inclusion efforts that rapidly enable a large group of people to suddenly move into the lower income and lower middle class. This drop will plateau out once the poverty rate falls below 5%, since poverty will then be a localized problem confined to the hardest places to fix, like how polio went from endemic throughout the country, to being restricted to a few pockets that required sustained repeated efforts to address.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 29 Jun 2018 01:47

Mod Note: Deleted. PLEASE, stop posting stuff here that you really mean to post on the politics thread elsewhere.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby krisna » 29 Jun 2018 03:22

sourav and suraj,
Thanks for posting articles about poverty reduction.
Helps a lot in disemination of this info to many fellow Indians in social media circles.
Helps create a positive buzz.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 29 Jun 2018 11:58

One must give credit to MNREGA (even if only grudgingly), for the elimination of extreme poverty is actually tied to fundamental rights of a citizen:
1. The right to work
2. The right to freedom from starvation

as well as the realization within the greater society that:
1. Extreme poverty & starvation are unacceptable
2. Any instance of poverty in the country affects all of us as citizens and humans
3. The government may not have the wherewithal to provide a great life to all of us, but it has more than enough resources to wipe out destitution

Basically it is the realization by society at large that poverty is "not ok" which has made us turn the corner.

Next in line will be the right to health, and right to productive work, rather than merely digging and filling holes.

As time progresses, we will see starker divergence from our Western neigbour for whom these concepts are foreign and will remain progressively more out of reach as its finances deteriorate.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 29 Jun 2018 12:31

MNREGA was fiscally unsustainable. It led to this:
Image
The current government learned from it. Yes, the extremely poor need targeted help. But the economy cannot bear the cost of the kind of unproductive dole that MNREGA was, and it has wisely chosen to simply let it wither at the same level of annual budgetary support, which effectively means annual cuts in real terms due to inflation (Fund crunch: 88% of NREGA budget over, 6 months left in 2017-18 fiscal). That ran the economy into the ground. Macroeconomic metrics like commercial vehicle sales, took 6-7 years to finally cross the previous peak in 2010-11.

The focus on financial inclusion (JAM, Jan Dhan Yojana, MUDRA), infrastructure (India's $100bn road building gamble to boost economy), economic safety nets in the form of free/subsidised insurance cover, all enable more people to get out of poverty rapidly.

The data from Brookings (which is basically PovCal IMF/WB data) indicates that not only has extreme poverty continued to decline at an accelerating pace, but that it has not come at the cost of destroying productive economic activity. Instead, growth - especially rural growth and consumption - is accelerating. This was not the case during the original years of MNREGA, where improvement in absolute poverty came at the cost of economic stagnation. A policy that can't be fiscally sustained for even one administration isn't a good policy.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby souravB » 29 Jun 2018 15:24

IMHO, the definition of poverty as propagated by the UN body is not entirely applicable to India.
Take for example, India has a large number of Tribal people who lead their life in a certain way. they don't need to earn much money because they still work on barter system and are quite self sufficient. They do not have luxury items but they are happy and healthy.
shouldn't we exclude them from the calculations? it is not anybody's fudging business to tell them how to lead their lives.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 29 Jun 2018 15:33

souravB wrote:IMHO, the definition of poverty as propagated by the UN body is not entirely applicable to India.
Take for example, India has a large number of Tribal people who lead their life in a certain way. they don't need to earn much money because they still work on barter system and are quite self sufficient. They do not have luxury items but they are happy and healthy.
shouldn't we exclude them from the calculations? it is not anybody's fudging business to tell them how to lead their lives.


Rule of thumb. Take any western matrix with pinch of salt (sometimes bagful of it) when its applied to India. I have learned that with couple of detailed studies I did related to anthropomorphic data for adults and children based on which we get alarming (and frankly ridiculous) results like 70% of all Indian kids are malnourished. If you read fine print, you realize they used benchmark meant for western and African population which have higher average weight and height against which almost entire Indian population looks malnourished. You almost always find some catch. Most of the times its not the reserchers but the popular media which conveniently forgets to mention some key facts in an attempt to create sensation.

Many poor looking people in India are not that poor actually, especially slum dwellers in cities. I used to leave in front of a huge slum for many years, used to play with kids from there and I have seen many of them owning stuff which we couldn't afford to, with my Father's state govt job salary in pre-6th-pay commission era. While we would be called lower middle class they were classified as slum-dwelling poors. Its rather easy to get bleaker picture than reality on poverty in India due to multiple factors. No one has good reliable data on this, not even Indian govt.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby souravB » 29 Jun 2018 16:08

^^ exactly.
To be frank I think it is kind of a Human Rights violation to ask them to change their lifestyle just because The West massacred most of their Tribal population and parade the rest of them as showpieces.
but still that should not be an excuse for the govt to not have the data. They should have that and project it as it is.
it will give a clear idea about the actual number of poor people to concentrate and also sharpen our soft image. :D

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 29 Jun 2018 21:11

Let's not get sidetracked by anecdotal discussions. While all anecdotes have a kernel of truth in them, this thread doesn't deal with such discussions. References and data oriented discussion are more suitable. Other conversations, even if meaningful, should go elsewhere. Thanks in advance.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Austin » 30 Jun 2018 20:31

India’s external debt rises by 12.4% on higher overseas borrowing and NRI deposits

India’s external debt crossed the half a trillion dollars mark to touch $529 billion in March 2018 as more Indians borrowed from the overseas markets and NRIs parked higher amounts in bank deposits back home.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 30 Jun 2018 21:22

The external debt figure needs a more meaningful interpretation. There's no correlation between debt from short term hot money by investors that mostly gets repatriated one day, and 'external debt' on account of remittances, which are incredibly sticky and the vast majority of it never gets repatriated since it's a one way trip. Yet on paper they both add to external debt the same way.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 01 Jul 2018 02:08

If our economy is rising at the same rate, the external debt remains the same as a percentage of GDP.

Musing to our ears. Demo and GST in action.
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/happy-with-receipts-govt-hints-at-gst-cut/articleshow/64810622.cms

He said with the system stabilising, GST is helping boost growth as multiple taxes and cesses have been removed and collections this year could reach Rs 13 lakh crore, compared to the estimated mop-up of around Rs 12 lakh crore for the full financial year. “Once data from e-way bills comes, there will be some improvement and scope for some relief,” he added.


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/india-is-earning-more-spending-more-and-paying-more-taxes/articleshow/64804698.cms
According to government data released on Friday, Indians have deposited 44 per cent higher advance personal income tax in the first quarter of 2018-19 (April-June) than they did in the same period last year.
In the corporate tax front too, companies have paid 17 per cent higher advance tax this quarter than last year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JE Menon » 01 Jul 2018 11:02

Swarajya's Interview with the PM.

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/modi-to ... -same-rate

Swarajya's interview with our PM - a media coup, and am proud to say that I write for them under my own name and one or two pseudonyms (don't recall)!!! Also, a couple of the people writing there (other than me), and one of the interviewers possibly got their first taste of New India, at the Bharat Rakshak forum. Very proud day for us, folks.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby arshyam » 01 Jul 2018 11:23

Wrong thread, replied elsewhere.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2018 11:48

On Indian external debt > Came across this research yesterday and this is the note I had made for myself

https://valuewalkpremium.com/2018/06/pu ... g-markets/
Pundits Predicting Panic In Emerging Markets - Research Affiliates [A well respected research shop]

⦁ We assess the risk of a funding crisis by examining three key metrics - external debt, foreign exchange reserves, and current account balance - shows, however, that EM countries have low risk of a broad funding crisis.
External debt may need to be refinanced if foreign investors lose confidence in a country’s credit.
FX reserves provide the immediate liquidity to repay the external debt.
The current account measures whether the risks of external debt and FX reserves are likely improving or worsening.

China, Korea, Taiwan, India, and Russia, each in its own way presents political or economic risks—that’s what makes them emerging markets. How much of that risk is unknown to the market? How much is fully priced into these nations’ valuations? According to our analysis, none presents any measurable risk of a funding crisis. All have low external-debt-to-GDP ratios and ample FX reserves, and most run current account surpluses. (India runs an immaterial current account deficit.) Together, these large, low-crisis-risk markets compose about 60% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa run current account deficits, but also have low external debt to GDP paired with healthy FX reserves. These three countries, which display modest risk, compose 15% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
A few countries, including, notably, Turkey and Indonesia, seem at more material risk with high external debt, low FX reserves, and significant current account deficits. These markets, however, are only a small fraction of the total EM equity market.
⦁ Interestingly, the United States fares poorly on the three crisis risk measures we analyze. External debt to GDP is higher than in the worst EM countries, and we run a persistent current account deficit. But with great wealth and the world’s reserve currency, the United States seems in no immediate danger of a funding crisis. Longer-term, as government deficits are heading to over 100% of GDP, complacency seems ill advised.

suryag
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby suryag » 01 Jul 2018 12:20

JEM sir you beat me to it, heartening to see Swarajya get a slot with Modiji

pankajs
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2018 14:29

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/one-yea ... for-centre
One Year Of GST: States Needing Little Compensation Has To Be Biggest Relief For Centre

Take for instance, inflation rate. While Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian kept assuring that GST will not cause inflation to rise, many ‘experts’ kept on repeating that it will be inflationary. It didn’t. Ditto for warnings on collections, adding new number of taxpayers, traders’ revolt due to loss of business and what not.

<snip>

But perhaps what must’ve worried even the centre most was the situation where the revenue of the states doesn’t grow at 14 per cent rate annually under the new system. This was the minimum tax growth rate that the states were promised failing which the centre would’ve to compensate them for five years with 2015-16 decided as base year. It was a deal breaker.

<snip>

While the apprehension was that most of the states will need to be compensated, GST collection figures for various states now show that most of the states would in fact not need any compensation. A report released recently by the economists at State Bank of India (SBI) research centre analysed revenues of 24 states and that 16 out of them have increased their revenues over and above of 14 per cent mutually accepted minimum tax growth rate. On aggregate, the report finds, states gained Rs 18,698 crore in revenue in eight months of last fiscal.

<snip>

All in all, the centre can heave a big sigh of relief. It has passed the GST’s biggest test with flying colours. Now, it can focus on increasing compliance and making it more and more of a simple and good tax.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 01 Jul 2018 23:21

Fiscal deficit, the gap between the government's revenue and expenditure, rose to Rs 3.45 lakh crore at the end of May, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts. That’s 55.3 percent of the targetted Rs 6.24 lakh crore in 2018-19.
The gap is lower than what it was in May last year, at 68.3 percent of the FY18 target, as the government had frontloaded expenditure to kickstart the investment cycle.


https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-e ... get-in-may

Also:
Budget documents showed that the government is expecting a 16.7 percent rise in its gross tax revenue in FY19. Here’s what its budgetary estimates are:
  • The gross tax revenue is expected to increase to Rs 22.7 lakh crore.
  • As a percent of GDP, gross tax revenue is expected to be 12.1 percent.
  • The net tax revenue for the Centre is pegged at Rs 14.8 lakh crore.
  • Total expenditure for FY19 is pegged at Rs 24.4 lakh crore. That’s inclusive of the expenditure as a result of GST compensation to states.
  • Capital expenditure is estimated to increase to Rs 3 lakh crore in FY19.

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 02 Jul 2018 09:55

Great interview with the PM, and quite a coup there. I like the data driven approach in his answers.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Aditya_V » 02 Jul 2018 14:10

Looking at the Historical data of exhange rates from 2013 -2018, we see the Rupee CNY rate today is simlair and Rupee has actually appreciated against Malaysian Ringgit, Thai Baht, Rupiah, Aust Dollar, Can Dollar, Euro, GBP and almost every other currency. This fact is lost on the secular crowd.


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