Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 17 Dec 2018 16:27

https://www.financialexpress.com/money/income-tax/it-returns-witness-massive-50-per-cent-jump-up-bihar-mp-top-chart-with-more-than-70-growth/1415884/
Image
Further, in terms of income category, the highest rise in returns files has come from those declaring income of `5-10 lakh (see chart).


5 to 10 lakh - 77% increase
10-20 lakh - 40+%
20-50 lakh - 63%
50 lakh - 1 crore - 50%
above 1 cr - 40+%

The increase in the number of filers is not all empty returns, like it has been commonly refrained.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 17 Dec 2018 18:45

Now that they are being honest give them good tax breaks in the coming budget.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 17 Dec 2018 18:47

This should have been done long back.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... s?from=mdr

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 17 Dec 2018 19:17

Rough calculation. If IT nos are around 6 crores then taking average family size of 5 that is around 300 million which is roughly the size of the middle class i.e. the taxable class. So now almost everyone who needs to pay tax is paying tax. IMO opinion one of the objectives of Demo and GST has been achieved.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 17 Dec 2018 19:26

Supratik wrote:Rough calculation. If IT nos are around 6 crores then taking average family size of 5 that is around 300 million which is roughly the size of the middle class i.e. the taxable class. So now almost everyone who needs to pay tax is paying tax. IMO opinion one of the objectives of Demo and GST has been achieved.


A minor nit: India income tax returns are mostly for individuals and women have a slight tax benefit; so a typical family would file 2 returns not 1.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 17 Dec 2018 19:39

You are thinking of salaried class only and that too very urban ones. Typically most Indian wives don't work. Even if 30% of urban women earn a salary the numbers are pretty high. Remember agricultural middle classes are not taxed. I think "most" will be now covered.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 18 Dec 2018 09:26

Most of the IT payers are Salaried class or others who receive their income on account and not in cash. Most of the economy still runs on cash and there is huge tax base yet to be tapped. GST formalized most of the trading activities which creates a data that can be mined to look at trader income. Professional class like Doctors don't pay tax most of the time.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 18 Dec 2018 10:01

Supratik wrote:You are thinking of salaried class only and that too very urban ones. Typically most Indian wives don't work. Even if 30% of urban women earn a salary the numbers are pretty high. Remember agricultural middle classes are not taxed. I think "most" will be now covered.


This has nothing to do with the salaried class. Salary by definition has to be entirely paid to the employee. Business/rental/interest income is the category which is often split across 2 returns (obviously by apportioning the properties/interest bearing accounts/business partnerships as the case may be to both spouses) so a lower tax bracket is hit, or other tax advantages can be had like tax exempt bonds etc.

Yagnasri wrote:Most of the IT payers are Salaried class or others who receive their income on account and not in cash. Most of the economy still runs on cash and there is huge tax base yet to be tapped. GST formalized most of the trading activities which creates a data that can be mined to look at trader income. Professional class like Doctors don't pay tax most of the time.


Businessmen, doctors, lawyers, actors and other professionals do pay income tax, often quite a lot, but have various means (legal and not-so-legal) at their disposal to minimize their declared income. This is a luxury the salaried class doesn't which is why they are treated with "kid gloves" by the taxation authorities.

IT officers weren't born yesterday. They have a very good idea of what kind of income doctors, CAs and other people make; and they have the means and motivation to go after large-scale fraud.

"Most of the economy still runs on cash" yes, and so be it. The very act of tax collection costs money. It makes no sense to spend 50p for every rupee of tax collected, because - guess what - the other party is also spending 50p to maintain records, in addition to the rupee of tax they are paying. You go after organized sector, the big fish, and let the small ones operate in the margins or with a simplified tax regime. The GST choice provided to restaurants - either 5% of the bill, or 12% of the profit minus costs (numbers may be incorrect) - is an example where there is a much simpler record keeping option provided to let the vast majority of small operators come under the tax umbrella with relatively less pain.

And at this stage in our development, it's best to let daily wage labour, vendors, small farmers and tradespeople off the hook. As their salaries improve, we should consider bringing them into the tax net - as they did with taxi drivers some years ago.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JTull » 18 Dec 2018 15:30

Crude is down 30% in 2.5 months. WTI is below $49. This should give some comfort to planners.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 18 Dec 2018 15:41

Looks like full budget is coming on Feb 1st. Not a vote on account one. Interesting development. Hope good amount of bribes are given to middle class, farmers and others in this election season. :D

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JTull » 18 Dec 2018 15:59

Yagnasri wrote:Looks like full budget is coming on Feb 1st. Not a vote on account one. Interesting development. Hope good amount of bribes are given to middle class, farmers and others in this election season. :D


How do you compete with a nationwide farm loan waiver being promised by RaGa

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 18 Dec 2018 16:19

Give the same promise. INC had such promise given in 2009 elections time. So second time. The fall out of this kind of promise on agri economy was and is going to be very bad. But political compulsion.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ragupta » 18 Dec 2018 18:41

Also general amnsesty by closing court cases related to minor crimes, petty thefts and cases over 10 years, which are clogging the system and whose outcome is not going to benefit anyone.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 18 Dec 2018 18:49

Yagnasri, check the middle class data of India using google. It is around 300 million. So most of it is covered now in a ball park figure. As can you can guess 50-80% rise in IT is not natural growth but people earlier not paying tax coming into the tax net. Ball park most people who need to pay tax are paying tax but there will be some evasion for self-employed/traders/businessmen in reducing the amount they are paying either legally or illegally. This can be tackled with more transparency slowly over time. But one of the major objective of demo and GST i.e. tax compliance is getting achieved.

Yensoy, it is not clear to me what you are trying to say. So if I have a shop I will divide the tax (IT) with my wife 1+1 = 2. Why?

Yes, Modi needs to give a lot of freebies if he wants to win. GST simplification, IT tax benefits. Electricity and gas subsidies to BPL. Increase in MSP for all agricultural produce. And now that Cong is going to give farm loan waiver they need to do the same. I know he hates it but I see no other option.
In the short term it will screw the revenues of the govt. So he has to curtail spending for at least a year or maybe two. Otherwise there will be pressure on rupee. Specially if oil appreciates.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 18 Dec 2018 19:06

Supratik wrote:Yensoy, it is not clear to me what you are trying to say. So if I have a shop I will divide the tax (IT) with my wife 1+1 = 2. Why?


It's pretty obvious isn't it? I have got the example from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wealth/tax/latest-income-tax-slabs/articleshow/62751981.cms.

Say your shop earns 10L/year. If you have it all on your head, you pay 1 lakh 17 thousand rupees as tax. If you do 50-50 with your wife, together you pay only 26 thousand rupees between your 2 returns. This is an extreme example for sure, but there is always an advantage in splitting your earnings with other family members when possible.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 18 Dec 2018 19:27

Yes, it is likely to be the exception rather than the rule as none of my family members who have business are known to do it. Never heard it to be widespread. Maybe Yagnasri will know better. Even lawyers, doctors, CAs can do it. If IT dept wants to look at source of income in their filing then they will get caught. Even then a doubling of tax payers in such a short time suggests that most people who were not paying are paying now. Creative tax compliance happens in the West as well.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JTull » 18 Dec 2018 20:10

In case of Partnerships, the tax liabilities pass-through to the partners for their share of the revenues. A couple can have substantial saving from lower slabs if their total income is not too high. Nothing wrong in establishing Limited or Full Partnership structures.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 18 Dec 2018 21:29

Good move. Now reduce the price of subsidized cylinder by Rs 50-100 as many are unable to refill.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 137398.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 18 Dec 2018 21:33


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 18 Dec 2018 22:00

IMO debate should be between farm loan waiver and a 30-50% bump in MSP. I personally think MSP hike is better as it increases farm income although it causes food inflation. Loan waivers are unproductive as it is mostly wasted and the farmer would like to have another waiver next time around apart from screwing up govt finances. Rhythu Bandhu scheme of TG by KCR is a good scheme but I am not sure if it can be implemented in a short time.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 18 Dec 2018 22:11

Banks to see hiring surge in modern banking segments.

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/indias-st ... age-skills

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 19 Dec 2018 02:33

Supratik wrote:IMO debate should be between farm loan waiver and a 30-50% bump in MSP. I personally think MSP hike is better as it increases farm income although it causes food inflation. Loan waivers are unproductive as it is mostly wasted and the farmer would like to have another waiver next time around apart from screwing up govt finances. Rhythu Bandhu scheme of TG by KCR is a good scheme but I am not sure if it can be implemented in a short time.


Rythu Bandhu scheme can be announced by center and implemented across states in a short time. It can be limited to 10 acres.

However, the loan waiver is a separate category in itself. It allows farmer to just get the loan and not pay. It is free cash and everybody will want in it. Economics be damned.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 19 Dec 2018 11:57

Calling a spade a spade., #Pappu & #Congoons are doing economic sabotage:

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/rahul-gandhi-the-economic-saboteur

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 19 Dec 2018 15:10

way I see it UPA is positioning itself to feast on the fruits of the hard medicine that NDA has given.
same as they feasted on the hard work of the ABV govt in 2004-2014.

the blame for both farmer struggles and middle class angst can be laid at Namo's door
while the credit for the give aways and freebies they want to bankrupt us on, will be claimed by them.

public has not moved up from the "what is in my pocket only counts" mentality.

we all know that farm loans are also diverted to other ends and NPA is always high. my father was a lifelong banker, all the loan melas were just political feasts, nobody paid back anything. bankers tried to pass the hot potato of loan mela to other bigger banks, saying their balances were weak

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 19 Dec 2018 18:37

Assam has waived farmer loans. This is a good strategy. Waive small amount of loans in NDA ruled states to pre-empt an election based on farm loan waiver. This does not break the bank. NDA should implement this every state they rule. This will lead to a fizzle of the issue pre-election. This is doable financially.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 151390.cms

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 19 Dec 2018 18:46


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 19 Dec 2018 18:49

Gujarat waives rural electricity bill. They should also give a small farm loan waiver.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... dJz8N.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JayS » 19 Dec 2018 21:28

disha wrote:
Rythu Bandhu scheme can be announced by center and implemented across states in a short time. It can be limited to 10 acres.

However, the loan waiver is a separate category in itself. It allows farmer to just get the loan and not pay. It is free cash and everybody will want in it. Economics be damned.


Its not prudent to keep acreage as criterion. What happens is all the money flows to rich regions like West MH or south KA where people have small farms but due to irrigation they are well to do still with crops like Sugarcane. Whereas in the primary distressed areas like the East MH or north KA or parts of telangana, farmers typically have large chunks of lands but they do not get any output out of it. Govt need better criteria. Otherwise the waiver will not reach truly distressed farmers and there will neither be economical gains nor political.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby SBajwa » 19 Dec 2018 22:30

Supratik wrote:IMO debate should be between farm loan waiver and a 30-50% bump in MSP. I personally think MSP hike is better as it increases farm income although it causes food inflation. Loan waivers are unproductive as it is mostly wasted and the farmer would like to have another waiver next time around apart from screwing up govt finances. Rhythu Bandhu scheme of TG by KCR is a good scheme but I am not sure if it can be implemented in a short time.


The current price of wheat is 1840 per 100 kg (quintal) 18.4
The current price of wheat flour (not packaged) is 22 rupees per kg.
The current price of packaged wheath flour is 48 rupees. (Aashirwaad, etc).

So if wheat MSP is doubled to 3680 most farmers will be happy.
Traders buy from government and add their value (grinding, packaging, transporting, taxes). Their profit should be fixed and implemented at some percentage i.e profit not more than 10% after adding all the values.

Few years ago the government had to sell the rotten wheat to distillers for Rs1 per 100kg to clear up space for fresh wheat. This needs to be streamlined.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 19 Dec 2018 22:43

The thing with MSP is it has no end.

Lot of these farmers, who are not able to make a proper living from farmland (small farm, low priced produce) etc should be provide incentive to quit farming. They should be given some fixed regular amount and all these farms handed over to private entity for contract farming.

MSP, Farm loan is a bottomless pit.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 19 Dec 2018 23:09

You should see MSP as income enhancement. Say you are in a IT job. You expect your company to give a hike in your salary every year which increases your income. Similarly a farmer expects a hike in income. Nothing wrong in it. MSP is a better subsidy than loan waivers as the farmer will waste it on something but MSP gives a steady income. Modi govt had kept MSP at a bare minimum for the last 4 years to contain food inflation which had spiked during end of of UPA2. Food inflation is right now pretty low. Right time to give a hike. Politics apart.

Regarding people leaving farming - it is already happening. It is down from 53% in 2007 to 43% in 2017 as per data available. So 1% is leaving farming every year. This problem will last till 2040 when farming pop will be down to 20% or less. It will accelerate if you are able to provide better alternative jobs in manufacturing and low level services. Mechanization which is happening all over India will further reduce it. Faster urbanization will reduce it faster.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vinod » 19 Dec 2018 23:26

There are dark clouds over US, UK, EU and Chinese economies.. that is more than 50% of world economy. a slow down there impacts everyone. while I very much want Modi to win, if the govt splurges now on election freebies, how will they handle crisis when it happens. It is not a matter of if, it is when...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 20 Dec 2018 00:00

It is only going to affect external trade IF it happens at all. Nothing to do with MSP or "small" loan waivers.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 20 Dec 2018 03:59

JayS wrote:Its not prudent to keep acreage as criterion. What happens is all the money flows to rich regions like West MH or south KA where people have small farms but due to irrigation they are well to do still with crops like Sugarcane. Whereas in the primary distressed areas like the East MH or north KA or parts of telangana, farmers typically have large chunks of lands but they do not get any output out of it. Govt need better criteria. Otherwise the waiver will not reach truly distressed farmers and there will neither be economical gains nor political.


I will not argue against any other manner of determination that identifies truly distressed farmers. So if acreage does not suffice, or is not good for another region, maybe other region specific attributes can be added (and at most 3, so that there is an upper bound).

Point is for GOI to provide the funding for crop insurance and access to crop insurance without any undue hassles.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 20 Dec 2018 20:22

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/four-public-sector-banks-to-come-out-of-prompt-corrective-action-restrictions-following-improved-performance

Bank of Maharashtra, Corporation Bank, Allahabad Bank and Bank of India are expected to come out of the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) restrictions following the improved performance, The Hindu has reported.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby atamjeetsingh » 20 Dec 2018 21:56

disha wrote:
Supratik wrote:IMO debate should be between farm loan waiver and a 30-50% bump in MSP. I personally think MSP hike is better as it increases farm income although it causes food inflation. Loan waivers are unproductive as it is mostly wasted and the farmer would like to have another waiver next time around apart from screwing up govt finances. Rhythu Bandhu scheme of TG by KCR is a good scheme but I am not sure if it can be implemented in a short time.


Rythu Bandhu scheme can be announced by center and implemented across states in a short time. It can be limited to 10 acres.

However, the loan waiver is a separate category in itself. It allows farmer to just get the loan and not pay. It is free cash and everybody will want in it. Economics be damned.


For short term measure that can be good scheme and it can be be implemented for the crops we need.We should be exploring beetroot for sugar For eg if our pulses stock is running low can be done for pulses or for oilseeds. Rice, wheat and sugarcane to be avioded to discourgae their cultivation.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Ravi Karumanchiri » 20 Dec 2018 22:18

Cross-posting this from earlier in the Geopolitics/Geoeconomics Thread...

Ravi Karumanchiri wrote:How Britain stole $45 trillion from India

And lied about it.
Jason Hickelby Jason Hickel
14 Dec 2018


There is a story that is commonly told in Britain that the colonisation of India - as horrible as it may have been - was not of any major economic benefit to Britain itself. If anything, the administration of India was a cost to Britain. So the fact that the empire was sustained for so long - the story goes - was a gesture of Britain's benevolence.

New research by the renowned economist Utsa Patnaik - just published by Columbia University Press - deals a crushing blow to this narrative. Drawing on nearly two centuries of detailed data on tax and trade, Patnaik calculated that Britain drained a total of nearly $45 trillion from India during the period 1765 to 1938.

It's a staggering sum. For perspective, $45 trillion is 17 times more than the total annual gross domestic product of the United Kingdom today.

How did this come about?

It happened through the trade system.

<snip>

Meanwhile, London ended up with all of the gold and silver that should have gone directly to the Indians in exchange for their exports.

This corrupt system meant that even while India was running an impressive trade surplus with the rest of the world - a surplus that lasted for three decades in the early 20th century - it showed up as a deficit in the national accounts because the real income from India's exports was appropriated in its entirety by Britain.

Some point to this fictional "deficit" as evidence that India was a liability to Britain. But exactly the opposite is true. Britain intercepted enormous quantities of income that rightly belonged to Indian producers. India was the goose that laid the golden egg. Meanwhile, the "deficit" meant that India had no option but to borrow from Britain to finance its imports. So the entire Indian population was forced into completely unnecessary debt to their colonial overlords, further cementing British control.

Britain used the windfall from this fraudulent system to fuel the engines of imperial violence - funding the invasion of China in the 1840s and the suppression of the Indian Rebellion in 1857. And this was on top of what the Crown took directly from Indian taxpayers to pay for its wars. As Patnaik points out, "the cost of all Britain's wars of conquest outside Indian borders were charged always wholly or mainly to Indian revenues."

<snip>

All of this is a sobering antidote to the rosy narrative promoted by certain powerful voices in Britain. The conservative historian Niall Ferguson has claimed that British rule helped "develop" India. While he was prime minister, David Cameron asserted that British rule was a net help to India.

This narrative has found considerable traction in the popular imagination: according to a 2014 YouGov poll, 50 percent of people in Britain believe that colonialism was beneficial to the colonies.

Yet during the entire 200-year history of British rule in India, there was almost no increase in per capita income. In fact, during the last half of the 19th century - the heyday of British intervention - income in India collapsed by half. The average life expectancy of Indians dropped by a fifth from 1870 to 1920. Tens of millions died needlessly of policy-induced famine.

Britain didn't develop India. Quite the contrary - as Patnaik's work makes clear - India developed Britain.

<snip>



anupmisra also made an earlier post, pointing to this same work by Patnaik; but that post was in the Indo-UK discussion thread and referenced a different piece of news about it.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 21 Dec 2018 18:23


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 22 Dec 2018 01:04

Jharkhand announces farmer scheme similar to rhythu bandhu.

https://www.firstpost.com/india/jharkha ... 73171.html


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