Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby disha » 01 Apr 2019 23:11

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/fy19-gst-mop-up-overshoots-estimates-march-collections-at-record-rs-1-06-lakh-crore-5652985/

FY’19 GST mop up overshoots estimates; March collections at record Rs 1.06 lakh crore


Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in a tweet said: "The record collection in March, 2019 of the GST touching Rs 1,06,577 crore indicates the expansion in both manufacturing and consumption*".

March saw the highest ever monthly return filing since GST rollout on July 1, 2017, at 75.95 lakh– reflecting improved compliance.
Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections touched Rs 11.77 lakh crore in fiscal 2018-19, exceeding the revised budget estimates, with record realisation of Rs 1.06 lakh crore in March alone.

March saw the highest ever monthly return filing since GST rollout on July 1, 2017, at 75.95 lakh– reflecting improved compliance.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in a tweet said: “The record collection in March, 2019 of the GST touching Rs 1,06,577 crore indicates the expansion in both manufacturing and consumption”.

In a statement, the Finance Ministry said the monthly average of GST revenue during 2018-19 is Rs 98,114 crore, 9.2 per cent higher than the previous fiscal.

“These figures indicate that the revenue growth has been picking up in recent months, despite various rate rationalisation measures,” it said.

Total gross GST revenue collected in March, 2019 stood at Rs 1,06,577 crore of which central GST was Rs 20,353 crore, state GST was Rs 27,520 crore, integrated GST was Rs 50,418 crore and cess was Rs 8,286 crore.

The collection in March, 2019, has been highest since introduction of GST and the fourth instance of the mop-up breaching the Rs one lakh crore mark in 2018-19 fiscal which ended on March 31, 2019.

The March, 2019, collections also reflects a 15.6 per cent growth over March, 2018, collection of Rs 92,167 crore.

The total collections during 2018-19 fiscal totalled a little over Rs 11.77 lakh crore, which was higher than Rs 11.47 lakh crore set in the revised budget estimates.

GST collection stood at Rs 1.03 lakh crore in April, Rs 94,016 crore in May, Rs 95,610 crore in June, Rs 96,483 crore in July, Rs 93,960 crore in August, Rs 94,442 crore in September, Rs 1,00,710 crore in October, Rs 97,637 crore in November, Rs 94,725 crore in December 2018, Rs 1.02 lakh crore in January 2019, Rs 97,247 crore in February 2019 and Rs 1.06 lakh crore in March 2019.

For fiscal 2019-20, the GST mop-up target has been budgeted at Rs 13.71 lakh crore.

Commenting on the revenue number, EY Tax Partner Abhishek Jain said “some major reasons for the growth could be reconciliation by businesses of outward and inward supplies, intelligent data analytics, tax leakage detection and consequent GST payment by businesses”.



Lot of data points. The key is the consumption part, rural India is going gang busters and I think the growth is under-estimated. I would expect the growth to come to @8-9% next year (@7-8% next year if monsoon is average).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 03 Apr 2019 04:49

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Market ... m-in-March
TOKYO -- Indian manufacturing sector experienced a slow down in March with softer upturn in sales dragging output growth to a six-month low, accompanied by subdued inflationary pressures, with rates of increase in input costs and output charges below their respective long-run averages.

The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI, registered 52.6 in March. Although above the line of expansion, fell from 54.3 in February to a six-month low. Readings above 50 point to expansion, while those below 50 indicate contraction.

There was a widespread slowdown in growth where softer increases were registered for new orders, production, input buying and employment. The increase in new orders was the slowest in six months, competitive conditions and the upcoming elections reportedly curbing the upturn.

However, firms indicated that strong underlying demand, successful advertising and the receipt of bulk orders underpinned sales growth.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 03 Apr 2019 21:07

GoI sovereign guarantees to cover debts for what was essentially a private company??

This just doesn't sit right.


Centre pays sovereign guarantees to ADB, KfW for IL&FS

Apr 03, 2019,

In a major development in the IL&FS crisis, the government has off late paid up on sovereign guarantees to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and KfW, a state-run bank of Germany, people in the know of the developments said,

Payment of around $2 million or Rs 13.84 crore has been made to ADB at the least in the last couple of months and around Rs 5 crore has been paid to KfW, sources said

Significantly, the payment has not been disclosed at the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT), even thought the appellate tribunal has asked both the government and the IL&FS board to take its approval before any step regarding the cash-strapped group.

It has come to light that, in 2009, the government of India had issued a sovereign guarantee on behalf of Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS).

Last year, the Central government superseded the management of the beleaguered company through a National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) order and appointed a six-member board led by Uday Kotak, MD and CEO of Kotak Mahindra BankNSE -0.39 %, to restore its financial solvency.

Key public sector lenders and undertakings, such as the Life Insurance Corporation of India and the State Bank of India have a 25.34 per cent and 6.42 per cent stake, respectively, in the firm which has around Rs 91,000 crore in long-term debt.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vivek K » 03 Apr 2019 23:34

chetak wrote:GoI sovereign guarantees to cover debts for what was essentially a private company??

This just doesn't sit right.


Centre pays sovereign guarantees to ADB, KfW for IL&FS
.....

Why? Are Indian companies not worth saving? Or should we jail all industrialists and give money away to a) farmers and b) the poor.

Indian companies must be supported and saved.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Uttam » 04 Apr 2019 20:12


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 04 Apr 2019 20:19

Vivek K wrote:
chetak wrote:GoI sovereign guarantees to cover debts for what was essentially a private company??

This just doesn't sit right.


Centre pays sovereign guarantees to ADB, KfW for IL&FS
.....

Why? Are Indian companies not worth saving? Or should we jail all industrialists and give money away to a) farmers and b) the poor.

Indian companies must be supported and saved.


google IL&FS for some gyan.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Uttam » 04 Apr 2019 20:20

From Shaktikanta to Shaktimaan: Guv just gave India 11 big shots in the arm

* RBI will form a committee to assess the state of mortgage securitisation market in India.

* Banks will be permitted to reckon an additional 2% of government securities within the mandatory statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) requirement for the purpose of computing liquidity coverage ratio (LCR).

* A task force will be set up to find out the best practices for developing a secondary market for corporate loans. It's an important tool for managing credit risks. The current mechanism is loaded against lenders when there are defaults by corporates. Sale of loans in a secondary market can facilitate the transfer of these risks. The task force will look into a range of global best practices like (a) loan loan contract standards, (b) digital loan contract registry, (c) ease of due diligence and verification by potential loan buyers, (d) online platform for loan sales/ auctions, (e) accessible archive of historical market data on bids and sale prices for loans. Then it will try to find the best way for India to go about.

* The RBI today made a significant move toward allowing international settlement of Indian government securities. Talks have been initiated with International Central Securities Depositories to permit their non-resident clients to transact in Indian G-sec.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vivek K » 04 Apr 2019 21:17

chetak wrote:
Vivek K wrote:Why? Are Indian companies not worth saving? Or should we jail all industrialists and give money away to a) farmers and b) the poor.

Indian companies must be supported and saved.


google IL&FS for some gyan.

Don't need to. When we can give free money to people, give free power, free rice, look the other way at politicians that have 20,000 crores+ (INC) looted from the public stashed away and still vote for them, hold dear people like Mamta Bannerjee and others that enjoy seeing Indian blood shed and still vote for them, why these scruples then when GOI tries to save a badly run company?

Compare the Company to INC - the company pays taxes for its employees who use their wages to increase the economic activity while INC loots public resources and hides them in foreign banks.

I'm afraid I cannot see your concern. I don't agree with jailing industrialists (aka Rajan Pillai, Pawan Sachdeva, Harshad Mehta and others - all killed in jail) and giving free money to farmers.

All sick businesses (industry or farm) must be assisted if that makes financial sense by restructuring debt (not waiving it), waiving interest or converting part into equity and applying reasonable, soft interest rates to support businesses. Such an attitude will go a long way in improving the investment sentiment in the country.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 04 Apr 2019 22:23

This is the economy thread. Please don't drag in politics. Posters have one chance to edit their posts themselves.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 05 Apr 2019 03:56

ADB Asian Development Outlook 2019 (pdf)
Most figures list India + East Asia or India+China+NIEs (Asian Tigers) separate from the rest of developing Asia.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 05 Apr 2019 18:07

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Market ... d-in-March
TOKYO-The output growth of India's service sector softened to a six month low in March, with a slower expansion in new work, according to a survey.

The Nikkei India services Purchasing Managers' index, or PMI, decreased to 52.0 in March from 52.5 in February. Readings above 50 points indicate expansion, while those below 50 signal contraction.

The setback in service sector was "partly caused by waning new business growth", said Pollyanna De Lima, Principal Economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey.

The pace of staff hiring recorded the weakest since last September."An anaemic pace of job creation hints that service providers are not fully convinced about a shift into a higher growth gear", she added.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 05 Apr 2019 20:04

PMI of 52 is a 6 month low ? Worse things could happen . The ADO 2019 report also lists Asian PMI data over the past few years - it’s clear many major economies have a choppy or decelerating trend but India reported only one negative perish in the immediate aftermath of DeMo.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rahul M » 05 Apr 2019 20:28

Suraj wrote:PMI of 52 is a 6 month low ? Worse things could happen . The ADO 2019 report also lists Asian PMI data over the past few years - it’s clear many major economies have a choppy or decelerating trend but India reported only one negative perish in the immediate aftermath of DeMo.

might have to do with financial year end and uncertainties over coming elections. Lots of decisions must be on hold.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 05 Apr 2019 21:23

Possibly , but in statistical terms it is a blip - 52.0 is still ‘strong expansion’ territory . Please search for the pan Asia PMI data in the ADO report (it's in page 31) and you’ll see what I mean - if 52.0 is our idea of a six month low, we aren’t quite hard pressed for growth . Taiwan for example has had a few months of 45-48 PMI. Above 50 is expansion.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ranneel » 05 Apr 2019 21:36

Suraj wrote:Possibly , but in statistical terms it is a blip - 52.0 is still ‘strong expansion’ territory

Correct me if wrong, as i understand the PMI is a set of questions which are answered by people from different sectors,is it possible to define what it means if the PMI is say from 50 to 51 or 51 to 52 so on so forth in the Indian context ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 05 Apr 2019 22:09

Yes PMI is a monthly survey, covering questions about hiring, inventory and other management indices, reported as an up/down index. Markit is one of the leaders in PMI reporting.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 06 Apr 2019 04:47

Rahul M wrote:
Suraj wrote:PMI of 52 is a 6 month low ? Worse things could happen . The ADO 2019 report also lists Asian PMI data over the past few years - it’s clear many major economies have a choppy or decelerating trend but India reported only one negative perish in the immediate aftermath of DeMo.

might have to do with financial year end and uncertainties over coming elections. Lots of decisions must be on hold.

Financial Year End: No, it is seasonal adjusted
Elections: Possibly

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 06 Apr 2019 04:55

ranneel wrote:
Suraj wrote:Possibly , but in statistical terms it is a blip - 52.0 is still ‘strong expansion’ territory

Correct me if wrong, as i understand the PMI is a set of questions which are answered by people from different sectors,is it possible to define what it means if the PMI is say from 50 to 51 or 51 to 52 so on so forth in the Indian context ?

Did you look at this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasin ... s%27_Index

Image
P1 = Percentage number of answers that reported an improvement.
P2 = Percentage number of answers that reported no change.
P3 = Percentage number of answers that reported a deterioration.

while this is in growth zone, Suraj I am not sure how do you come to the conclusion that it is in strong expansion territory, in statistical terms. We've had much better terms. Post DeMo this is in the better zone
Services
Image
Manuf:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D3bO3i1XsAAvtFZ.png


Although overall from a different source provides different picture on statistia
https://www.statista.com/statistics/275 ... -in-india/
Image

I wont be too optimist by a scale change :-)

My reading on this and based on other info is
1. we are growing in a robust manner. I see it as a convalesce growth after a surgery.
2. The economy has proven resilience. The economy went through a clean up by DeMo, GST and NPA and has been growing broadly
3. All else remaining same :mrgreen:, :((, We are due of a rapid positive dislocation in coming years
Last edited by ArjunPandit on 06 Apr 2019 05:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 06 Apr 2019 05:07

Another thing to note is that majority of the economic activity in our country is done by small informal sector. I doubt any economic survey can incorporate that. Folks in IES under MoF have woken up to this concern ever since modi asked this question in one of the meetings.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 06 Apr 2019 05:14

Suraj wrote:Yes PMI is a monthly survey, covering questions about hiring, inventory and other management indices, reported as an up/down index. Markit is one of the leaders in PMI reporting.

continuing from the above post, what worries me from the link above is
https://cdn.ihs.com/www/pdf/PMI-Brochure-Nov17.pdf

"The data are collected using an identical methodology in all countries and sectors, so that international comparisons can easily be made between, for example, growth rates in China, the United States, United Kingdom and India. Industry and sector comparisons can also be made"

1. Given the challenges a/c countries for most of these metrics, research analysts recommend trends rather than reading too much into the absolute level of metrics. Assuming errors (or manipulations/errors) get modified.
2. Also even for US many of these metrics are adjusted retrospectively. So a concurrent analysis is not free from pitfalls. This is a forward looking indicator so it is bound to have those flaws too.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 06 Apr 2019 05:32

Forex reserves soar over $5 bn to reach $412 bn
The maiden dollar-rupee swap conducted by the central bank last week helped the country’s foreign exchange reserves swell by a healthy USD 5.237 billion to USD 411.905 billion in the week to March 29, RBI data showed Friday.

In the previous week, the reserves had increased by USD 1.029 billion to USD 406.667 billion.

Foreign currency assets, a major component of the overall reserves, swelled by USD 5.248 billion to USD 384.053 billion in the reporting week.

Expressed in dollars, foreign currency assets include the effect of appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies like the euro, pound and the yen held in the reserves.

In a bid to infuse liquidity into the system, the Reserve Bank had on March 26 conducted a USD 5 billion dollar-rupee swap auction, which received bids for over USD 16 billion.

Following the huge response, the central bank announced another round of USD 5 billion swap auction to be held on April 23 for a three-year tenor.

Another $5 billion round of rupee-dollar swaps later this month.

Early preview of fiscal 2018-19 merchandise export performance:
Exports in March to reach $32.38 billion : Prabhu
India’s exports are expected to reach $32.38 billion in March, the highest in any month so far, on account of healthy growth in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, Commerce and Industry Minister Suresh Prabhu said on Wednesday.

He said exports will cross the $331-billion mark in the year 2018-19.

He said for the “first time”, India has crossed $19- billion mark in pharma exports this fiscal.

The Commerce Ministry will release the trade data on April 15.

Prabhu said the country’s exports were declining for a long time, but now “this year, we would have record exports”. The figures in 2018-19 will be the highest ever at a time when there is a worst scenario in the world trade front, he said.

Outbound shipments are growing because of concerted efforts by the Ministry in the last one year, the Minister said.

“We created a matrix between every product and every geography. Secondly, we had done series of road shows,” Prabhu said adding export potential was tapped in regions such as Africa and Latin America.

The Ministry also held several meetings with the line ministries, including food, agri, pharma and IT Ministry, to resolve issues hindering exports.
India’s exports grew 8.85 per cent to $298.47 billion during April-February 2018-19.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 08 Apr 2019 22:29

Mudra Yojna: About 25 per cent of this year’s target met in just one month
Ahead of the crucial general polls, banks seem to have worked overtime to meet the target under the Pradhan Mantri Mudra Yojana (PMMY) meant for small and budding entrepreneurs. In just one month through March 22, lenders disbursed Mudra loans of as much as Rs 71,080 crore, or close to a quarter of their full-year (FY19) target of Rs 3 lakh crore, setting a record. They disbursed a total of Rs 2,73,749 crore as of March 22, compared with Rs 2,02,669 crore reported up to February 22, as per the latest official data. While the Mudra scheme has improved the access to credit at affordable rates (8-12%) for people from even vulnerable sections who used to rely heavily on informal channels such as money lenders, experts have warned of potential NPA risks, as most of these loans are collateral-free.

The number of Mudra loans sanctioned also surged to 5.41 crore as of March 22 (FY19), up from 3.89 crore a month before and compared with 4.81 crore in the entire FY18.

In value term, the lenders sanctioned Rs 2,82,594 crore as of March 22, against Rs Rs 2,10,760 a month earlier, showed the data. An official source said the disbursement target of Rs 3-lakh crore, announced in the Budget for 2018-19, may have been met when the fiscal ended on March 31.

Image
RBI rate cut marked unwinding of almost all policies by Urjit Patel
The Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate cut on Thursday wasn’t only a reversal of hikes under its previous Governor Urjit Patel. It also marked the unwinding of almost all of what he had put in place during his 27-month stint. In the four months since Patel quit abruptly in December, his policies from interest rate hikes to rules on loan defaults have been overturned.

New Governor Shaktikanta Das delivered a second consecutive rate cut in the same week that a top court in India struck down tough bankruptcy rules adopted under Patel. Under that RBI directive issued on Feb. 12, 2018, the central bank mandated a timeline for recasting bad loans or moving them to bankruptcy court, a move challenged by power generation companies, shipyards and sugar mills.

Patel, who wanted to clean up a banking system saddled with the worst non-performing loan ratios among the world’s major economies, had repeatedly clashed with the government about relaxing lending rules for some weak state-run banks. Das, a former bureaucrat who was named central bank chief a day after Patel quit, eased those curbs in recent months to support credit and economic growth.

Das has also allowed lenders to restructure loans to small and medium-sized businesses that are in default and appointed a panel to consider a government request to transfer more of the central bank’s excess capital to the state. That would help the government plug a widening budget deficit, allowing Prime Minister Narendra Modi to fund programs aimed at rural workers, a key voting bloc.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 09 Apr 2019 01:36

Taxman to go after 65,000 non-filers for 2016-17
The Income Tax Department will initiate recovery of tax along with penalty from approximately 65,000 assessees who deposited ₹10 lakh or more in their bank account during demonetisation, but did not file return for the assessment year 2017-18 (financial year 2016-17).

These 65,000 plus are part of nearly 3 lakh non-filers with large deposit. After getting notice from the tax department, nearly 2.1 lakh filed their return by March 31, 2018, while other nearly 25,000 only responded after that.

India’s GDP expected to accelerate moderately to 7.5% in current fiscal: World Bank
India’s GDP growth is expected to accelerate moderately to 7.5 per cent in Fiscal Year 19-20, driven by continued investment strengthening, particularly private-improved export performance and resilient consumption, the World Bank has said.

The real GDP growth is estimated at 7.2 per cent in FY18/19, the World Bank said in its latest report on South Asia on Sunday ahead of the spring meeting of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Data for the first three quarters suggest that growth has been broad-based. Industrial growth accelerated to 7.9 per cent, making up for a deceleration in services.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vishals » 09 Apr 2019 14:34

India retains top spot with largest remittances globally: World Bank

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/india-retains-top-spot-with-largest-remittances-globally-world-bank-119040900427_1.html

The latest edition of the World Bank's Migration and Development Brief said global remittances reached 689 billion dollars in 2018, up from 633 billion dollars in the previous year.


India retained its top spot on remittances with 79 billion dollars followed by China (67 billion dollars), Mexico (36 billion dollars), the Philippines (34 billion dollars) and Egypt (29 billion dollars).

Remittances grew by more than 14 per cent in India, where a flooding disaster in Kerala likely boosted the financial help that migrants sent to families, said the World Bank in its report released on Monday.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 10 Apr 2019 00:31

IMF WEO 2019 is out:
IMF World Economic Outlook: GDP PPP

Code: Select all

country value ($ billion)
China, People's Republic of 27.33 thousand
United States 21.34 thousand
India 11.47 thousand
Japan 5.75 thousand
Germany 4.47 thousand
Russian Federation 4.36 thousand
Indonesia 3.74 thousand
Brazil 3.5 thousand
United Kingdom 3.13 thousand
France 3.05 thousand

India PPP GDP : $11.5 trillion
India GDP PPP per capita: $8500
IMF World Economic Outlook: GDP nominal

Code: Select all

United States 21.34 thousand
China, People's Republic of 14.22 thousand
Japan 5.18 thousand
Germany 3.96 thousand
India 2.97 thousand
United Kingdom 2.83 thousand
France 2.76 thousand
Italy 2.03 thousand
Brazil 1.96 thousand
Canada 1.74 thousand

India nominal GDP: $3 trillion

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 10 Apr 2019 00:37

UPA vs NDA: This scorecard shows who delivered more when in power


The 12 charts that follow next encapsulate the Indian economy during these past 10 years under the two governments in question.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby VenkataS » 10 Apr 2019 04:13

Suraj wrote:IMF WEO 2019 is out:
IMF World Economic Outlook: GDP PPP
...
India nominal GDP: $3 trillion


Chinese nominal GDP surged from $2774.29 Trillion in 2006 to $11226.19 Trillion in 2015.
That is a growth of more than 4 times in 9 years (doubling twice within that time-span). That means that they were growing at around 16.75% annually (including real GDP growth, inflation and currency appreciation) during those years.

If we can replicate their growth it would mean that we would be a $12 Trillion economy by 2028.
We need a similar growth surge to catch up with them.

I would be OK :-) if we grew at 12.5% (considering inflation at 2.5% and currency appreciation of ~2% annually) over the next 11 years. That would mean we would be $11 Trillion dollar economy by 2030. For that to happen we need to have real GDP growth of at least 8% over the next 11 years.

Massive improvements in infrastructure along with a focus on industry, exports, and improving skills of the general population (productivity improvements) should make this feasible.

The ratio of Chinese GDP/Indian GDP was the following (over the years) (the ratio jumped from 2.92 in 2006 to 5.34 in 2015):
1980 - 1.61
1990 - 1.22
2000 - 2.55
2010 - 3.55
2020 - 4.75 (expected)

We need this to be under 3 by 2030 and under 2 by 2040 with the aim of catching up with them by 2047.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 10 Apr 2019 05:18

The relative sizes of the economies are only one vector. What's an even more interesting piece of information is, how much incremental economic output is generated ? This was reported in this post.

China and the US are much bigger economies, but
a) We generate more incremental GDP growth than the US, from a much smaller GDP
b) We generate just under half as much incremental GDP growth as China, from a much smaller GDP

Differential rate of growth in output exceeds differential in sizes.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Apr 2019 15:02

https://www.livemint.com/politics/polic ... 22935.html

how much is the cut 7.4% to 7.3% while the numbers may have huge implications, given the inefficiencies in the system and with forecasts. I will not make that a headline. I would read this as solid 7%+ growth consistently

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby ArjunPandit » 10 Apr 2019 15:05

Unemployment is back
My biggest concern is that all of these people have woken up in last 5 years claiming that data is being messed around, when they knew all the historical data was near garbage...
@suraj san, Did we ever delve deeper into the unemployment data.

Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 10 Apr 2019 21:28

ArjunPandit wrote:https://www.livemint.com/politics/policy/imf-cuts-india-gdp-growth-forecast-to-7-3-for-2019-20-1554813422935.html

how much is the cut 7.4% to 7.3% while the numbers may have huge implications, given the inefficiencies in the system and with forecasts. I will not make that a headline. I would read this as solid 7%+ growth consistently

It's simply that time of the year. The two/three letter organizations (WB, IMF, ADB, etc) all present estimates and revised estimates every few months. I've never bothered to spend time collecting all the estimates and revisions that are made, and what the final CSO figures are. It's a timepass exercise for anyone who's interested in fact checking just how close these agencies are to reality and how well they are able to recalibrate their estimates ahead of time, but I haven't bothered to spend time doing that.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 10 Apr 2019 21:35

Today is a historical day as India officially overtakes UK to become the world's fifth largest economy. Colonized overtakes colonizer. But we should remember that if you look at historical data - prior to colonization India and China were the largest economies in the world for centuries. So a historical anomaly is getting corrected. We are a lucky generation as we will witness this change right before our eyes.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 10 Apr 2019 21:37

Supratik wrote:Today is a historical day as India officially overtakes UK to become the world's fifth largest economy. Colonized overtakes colonizer. But we should remember that if you look at historical data - prior to colonization India and China were the largest economies in the world for centuries. So a historical anomaly is getting corrected. We are a lucky generation as we will witness this change right before our eyes.

Only on absolute GDP terms. In PPP terms we're already close to 4x larger than them, and overtook them back in 1990.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Supratik » 10 Apr 2019 22:00

Yes, I know but this is what I was looking for as nominal and per capita GDP are more meaty to me when comparing relative wealth. And exchange rate. This is my personal opinion. Wiki had been showing this change for the last couple of months but this announcement means it is now official.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 10 Apr 2019 23:03

I understand your perspective, but I'm afraid that's is an artificial construct assiduously created by the western press, specifically the European one (not in US - I'll explain). Exchange rates matter, to a point. What is the difference between a Rs.250 haircut and GBP15 haircut ? Nothing. Yet GBP15 is 5x of Rs.250.

All local economic activity is conducted in the currency of the host nation. Exchange rates are simply a medium of interaction, but they do not reflect aggregate activity. Nominal GDP inflates the value of economic activity in the west and understates that in India, due to differential price levels.

The reason why the argument does not apply to the US is that the US nominal and PPP GDP are the same thing by definition - PPP is simply the restating of GDP in international dollars. For most western countries, the price levels between them are similar, and there's little difference between their PPP and nominal GDPs. Thus, when comparing western nations to each other, PPP or nominal GDP doesn't matter much. On the other hand, in India, the PPP GDP is ~4x the nominal GDP, and it matters a LOT.

Therefore I urge posters not to make such subjective comparisons. Both metrics exist and are reported for a reason. The UK chooses to almost exclusively look only at nominal GDP for a very self serving reason - it makes them look much larger in comparison to developing nations like China and India, who have in reality far outstripped them in actual aggregate activity measured in price equalized terms (PPP). Never participate in a conversation where the terms are set by the other party. We define our own terms.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby VenkataS » 11 Apr 2019 02:44

Suraj wrote:I understand your perspective, but I'm afraid that's is an artificial construct assiduously created by the western press, specifically the European one (not in US - I'll explain). Exchange rates matter, to a point. What is the difference between a Rs.250 haircut and GBP15 haircut ? Nothing.

There should be a like button in the forum for posts so that we can show appreciation for good posts such as the one above.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Avtar Singh » 12 Apr 2019 02:46

I think all these gdp comparisons will be mute, if India can keep on track, sooner than anyone expects.
Especially if India can keep a sane monetary policy whilst the rest of the world is loosing its mind… The danger comes from the chicago school trojan horses that may end up infesting the Indian system.

If India avoids these traps I can see INR quickly becoming the “Mighty Mark” of this century.

Even the Germans will burn with jealousy.
1980;
West German mark gaining popularity as a haven
https://www.csmonitor.com/1980/0729/072904.html

30 years later;
https://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/18/opinion/18marsh.html
“The mighty Deutsche mark needed to be cast into the furnace of European unity and forged into the euro”.

Of course education and productivity levels will be the key…..
but I have every confidence in the ordinary at this time poor Indian.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kancha » 12 Apr 2019 15:36

India reduces trade deficit with China by $10 billion in FY19

India's trade deficit with China fell by $10 billion to $53 billion in FY19 on the back of lower imports, officials told CNBC-TV18. The downtick in the merchandise trade gap was also aided by new market opportunities arising out of the US-China trade war in the neighbouring nation.

According to a provisional figure of the year ended March 31, 2019, India's exports to China grew 31 percent at $17 billion in FY19 while imports dipped by 8 percent at $70 billion in the year under consideration.

According to sources, bigger shipments of shrimps, organic chemicals, plastic raw material, cotton yarn contributed to India’s export growth to China.

Officials in Udyog Bhawan attribute this to sustained parleys between India and China on market access of Indian goods, as well as greater demand for Indian goods in the neighbouring nation arising out of high duties on US products by China.

In fact, the Commerce Ministry had studied the impact of the US-China trade war on India and came to the conclusion that up to 603 'Made In India' goods could find greater demand in the Chinese market.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 12 Apr 2019 18:05

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 851078.cms

The industrial production for the month of February contracted to a twenty-month low of 0.1 per cent compared to 1.7 per cent in January showing weakness in the industrial sector.

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/68851078.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 12 Apr 2019 21:37

High base effect. Factory output grew 7.0% in Feb 2018.


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