Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prasad » 13 Jun 2019 17:17

Rooftop solar penetration in India is still very low. That could ease a lot of pressure from the grid for EV charging.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 13 Jun 2019 17:49

https://commerce.gov.in/PressRelease.aspx

COMMERCE MINISTER TO CHAIR JOINT MEETING OF BOARD OF TRADE & COUNCIL FOR TRADE DEVELOPMENT AND PROMOTION

New Delhi, 7th June 2019


To take Indian economy to 1 trillion dollar exports in goods, and 1 trillion dollar exports in services in the next five years, the Commerce Minister reiterated the importance of availability of credit at low rate of interest. He emphasised that it is the joint responsibility of banks and Government to ensure that export credit at competitive rates are available to businesses. The Commerce Minister pointed out that the volume of export credit is on a declining trend for the last few years and the situation needs urgent measures. Piyush Goyal put forth the proposal to make credit in foreign currency available to exporters at London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) plus maximum 200 basis points and directed RBI, ECGC and other banks to work out the modalities to make it possible.

Union Minister of Commerce and Industry & Railways, Piyush Goyal, today chaired a meeting with the participants from various public and private sector banks, RBI, EXIM bank, exporters organisations to look into the issues pertaining to export credit sector. Ministers for State for Commerce and Industry, Hardeep Puri and Som Parkash were also present in the meeting.

The Commerce and Industry Minister also deliberated on the interest subvention scheme utilisation with the participants and stressed on the importance of finding ways to maximise the impact of such subvention. He suggested that the subvention scheme may be used better as backstop guarantee for credit, thus increasing the coverage of ECGC for export lending purposes. The Minister asked RBI, EXIM Bank and SBI to study the matter in detail and present it in the follow up meeting to be held on 30th June 2019 in Mumbai.

Various other issues were deliberated in the daylong meeting, including bank coverage charges, exports to Iran, processing fee, collateral requirements and loan disbursals. Piyush Goyal directed the concerned departments and participants to take note and come up with solutions in a time bound manner. Various issues raised by exporters associations were resolved in the course of the meeting with directions to the concerned departments.

The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) has been asked to submit a report within 30 days on the following issues:

Shift from subsidy to cheaper availability of loan in foreign currency to exporters by 30th June 2019.
ECGC to enable a credit guarantee cover foreign currency lending to MSMEs.
EXIM bank to provide refinance in foreign currency to the commercial banks to support export credit particularly to MSMEs.
ECGC to extend export factoring for MSMEs.
Simplification of banking procedures for exports.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been asked to look into USD 25 billion line of credit from its foreign currency reserves for swap to well performing banks, and to also look into priority sector lending norms for export credit. Concerned departments have been asked to provide details for improving gold card scheme for export credit to be submitted to RBI. All these proposals will be discussed again and finalized in the June 30th, 2019 meeting to be held in Mumbai.

The meeting was attended by the representatives of the Ministry of Finance, Department of Economic Affairs, Department of Financial Services, Commerce Secretary, Anup Wadhawan, Secretary MSME, Dr. Arun Kumar Panda, Director General of Foreign Trade, Alok Vardhan Chaturvedi and senior officials of the Department of Commerce, officials from RBI, State Bank of India, Canara Bank, Punjab National Bank, HDFC Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Barclays Bank, Citi India, Bank of America, EXIM Bank, ECGC, Indian Banks’ Association, FIEO, EEPC, GJEPC, Laghu Udyog Bharati, FICCI and CII.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby VenkataS » 13 Jun 2019 18:26

We need to exploit roof top solar power aggressively. We need EVs because of the amount of pollution in our cities. This level of pollution for example in Delhi will affect the health of the citizens. However we should be buying locally manufactured solar panels and battery packs. We must not rely on imports here.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 13 Jun 2019 21:38

perhaps good tax breaks for locally made solar , wind and battery is in order.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 14 Jun 2019 01:55

VenkataS wrote:We need to exploit roof top solar power aggressively. We need EVs because of the amount of pollution in our cities. This level of pollution for example in Delhi will affect the health of the citizens. However we should be buying locally manufactured solar panels and battery packs. We must not rely on imports here.


when they are able to match the gurantees, right

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Jun 2019 07:17

^^^ probably belongs in the "Solar Energy in India" thread.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5797&start=1000

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kittigadu » 15 Jun 2019 09:54

https://youtu.be/LiaaLb9ExEE

Interesting discussion with Arvind Virmani and Pronob Sen on Arvind Subramanian’s paper.
Both do not seem to buy Subramanian’s conclusions.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vinod » 17 Jun 2019 16:41

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 810252.cms

India can boost exports of 300 products to US, China amid trade war: Report
The ongoing US-China trade war may bring about a shift in the global trading patterns.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vinod » 17 Jun 2019 16:42

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 818455.cms

India may trade places with US to ship items to China
Plans to export antibiotics, diesel engines and granite amid tariff spat between Washington and Beijing.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 19 Jun 2019 02:21

I heard Vietnam is taking over the Chinese market share of US exports especially in texttiles. Wonder why India can't

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 19 Jun 2019 02:29

Maybe
https://www.sourcify.com/all-you-need-t ... n-vietnam/

Bordering the manufacturing giant that is China, Vietnam benefits from the manufacturing expertise that continues to spill over as existing factories in China become more and more overcrowded.

Chinese manufacturers have been moving their factories to Vietnam since the early 2000s because sourcing from Vietnam offers refuge from the brutal competition of Chinese businesses. This is turning a large portion of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry into an extension of China’s industry.


PS: equivalent page on India
https://www.sourcify.com/what-you-need- ... -in-india/

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 19 Jun 2019 03:02

Year Defence Exports in INR crores

2014-15 1940

2015-16 2059

2016-17 1521

2017-18 4682

2018-19 10,745

India's Defence exports has gone up by 5 times in last 5 years validating Successful #MakeInIndia

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 19 Jun 2019 03:15

I am just confused with this gloom and doom and end of Indian economy by media and bloomberg/Reuters.. What is the truth?

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 143_1.html

India Inc's advance tax mop-up surges 171% in Q1, Mumbai collection up 133%
Mumbai collected Rs 17,174 crore of advance taxes against Rs 7,356 crore in the same period last year, according to data compiled by the tax dept.

India Inc’s advance tax figures grew exponentially by 171 per cent during the first quarter of 2019-20, prompting the tax authorities to say that the economy may be back on track after witnessing lacklustre growth in earlier quarters.

In overall direct tax collection, Mumbai has registered 133 per cent growth, collecting Rs 17,174 crore of advance taxes against Rs 7,356 crore in the same period last year, according to the data compiled by the tax department.


Corporate tax collections stood at Rs 14,873 crore, against Rs 5,477 crore a year ago. Individuals paid Rs 2,301 crore, up 22.4 per cent over Rs 1,879 crore in Q1 of 2018-19 (FY19).

The first instalment of advance tax for the current fiscal year ended on June 15. Assessees falling under the ambit of advance tax payment are required to pay 15 per cent of the evaluated tax liability.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 19 Jun 2019 09:20

vijayk wrote:I heard Vietnam is taking over the Chinese market share of US exports especially in texttiles. Wonder why India can't


Vietnam is right across the border from China, in particular the Pearl River Delta region around Guangdong province. There are excellent logistics facilities connecting Vietnam with China, which facilitates the quick and low cost movement of all sorts of parts/components in the supply chain in both directions. China has built not only a massive manufacturing ability, but has captured almost the entire supply chain to support this. For instance, look at shoes - there are probably 25 distinct components that go into a pair of sneakers, and these are all produced in the pearl river delta - rivets, laces, soles (which have multiple parts of different types of plastics/rubbers), upper fabric & structural parts, cartons & labels etc. For Vietnam, these are just a short truck ride away and can be stocked on a JIT basis; not only that, components can even be made in Vietnam and shipped North to China for assembly.

Vietnam has security, excellent skilled and productive manpower, decent infrastructure/logistics and low costs.

The Chinese have realized this unique advantage of Vietnam and have set up factories there which are extensions of their own China based facilities - that way they can mix and match production to optimize schedules, designs, tools and trade situations.

India is a rank outsider. We will be importing components from China anyway, doing the assembly and re-exporting. This adds delays and costs making us rather uncompetitive if we are only doing a small value-add. If the value-add is high - either by way of higher cost/complexity goods, or locally available raw materials/supply chain, or we can get scale by selling to the huge Indian local market, only then do we have a story.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 19 Jun 2019 10:07

cheen is also developing certain vietnam coastal areas and sea ports like haiphong as an extention of their "greater bay area" that encompasses zhuhai, dongguan, guangzhou, shenzhen, hong kong. i saw a program either on nhk or channel news asia where some lady chinese exec was touring vietnam to meet factory owners and builders to facilitate flow of cross border manufacturing and to help chinese ecosystem of vendors get their feet wet in vietnam. the coastal areas near hanoi are preferred destination for now.

so in a way its like the "maquiladora" factories that american cos set up along the border in mexico to reduce costs yet keep it close for logistical tail and NAFTA tax benefits.

vietnam per capita income is 6400 ppp dollars and india is 7000. their population is substantial 95 million, nearly the same as japan. its a coastal nation which helps logistics to be short into the ports.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 20 Jun 2019 01:49

The 2017 UN projection had India reaching peak population of 1,678,568,000 in 2060.

The 2019 UN World Population Prospects has been published.
https://population.un.org/wpp/

Now India reaches a peak population of 1,651,590,000 in 2060 (this is their median projection, where e.g, the total fertility rate for 2020-2025 is 2.14).
They project through probabilistic models.
The -95 percentile peak population projection is 1,488,139,000 in 2040 (TFR of 1.78 for 2020-2025).
The +95 percentile peak population projection is still growing at 2,184,978,000 in 2100 (this is totally unrealistic because the total fertility rate for this in 2020-2025 is 2.49).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 20 Jun 2019 10:33

we need urgent measures to reduce the fertility rate to 1.5 range - 1.3 is said to be replacement rate below which pop starts to decline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ility_rate

the 4 BIMARU states with a giant pop of 400 mil are dragging us down and they have little job creation so just exporting these hordes of people to the other states.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 20 Jun 2019 11:53

Singha wrote:we need urgent measures to reduce the fertility rate to 1.5 range - 1.3 is said to be replacement rate below which pop starts to decline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ility_rate

the 4 BIMARU states with a giant pop of 400 mil are dragging us down and they have little job creation so just exporting these hordes of people to the other states.


No, its 2.1. 1.5 is dangerous territory. Not even Germany and Japan have such low TFR. The rise t0 1.6 billion by 2060 even though we will achieve replacement rate by 2030 is because of longer lives and previous high birth rates. If our TFR declines below 2.1 after 2030, it will eventually start falling.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby rhytha » 20 Jun 2019 14:29

hanumadu wrote:
Singha wrote:we need urgent measures to reduce the fertility rate to 1.5 range - 1.3 is said to be replacement rate below which pop starts to decline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ility_rate

the 4 BIMARU states with a giant pop of 400 mil are dragging us down and they have little job creation so just exporting these hordes of people to the other states.


No, its 2.1. 1.5 is dangerous territory. Not even Germany and Japan have such low TFR. The rise t0 1.6 billion by 2060 even though we will achieve replacement rate by 2030 is because of longer lives and previous high birth rates. If our TFR declines below 2.1 after 2030, it will eventually start falling.


I think its already reached 1.3 - 1.2 in many of southern states, the amount of couples in TN having 1 kid is increasing. Anecdotal experience with my cousins who all have 1, do not have plans to having another kid as of present, may change their mind later, but for now, they all are happy with just 1.

India as a whole if it can reduce their population to under 1 billion would be good for general prosperity. I am reading this we will surpass China in 2020, 2025, now its 2027 for somtime now, and each time the year keeps increasing to surpass china.

i think we will surpass China only when they start having more negative growth than the 0.6% annual change (2017) presently I hope.

GOI has been working on TFR reduction now district wise than state wise and has plans to it.

https://www.factchecker.in/why-2-1-2/

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 20 Jun 2019 15:37

yes there is no great reason why we need a 1.5 billion horde population.
a pop of 1 billion if managed well will both decrease pressure on land and resources yet provide us a massive economic pool to play in.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby hanumadu » 20 Jun 2019 18:41

Deleted . Off topic .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prasad » 20 Jun 2019 20:24

Singha wrote:yes there is no great reason why we need a 1.5 billion horde population.
a pop of 1 billion if managed well will both decrease pressure on land and resources yet provide us a massive economic pool to play in.

We were 70 crores approximately in 1980. Our troubles compounded because our population double in the next 20 years.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 21 Jun 2019 01:07

https://www.firstpost.com/long-reads/nd ... 51141.html

Structural reforms in agriculture

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has kick-started its second term by setting the ball rolling for “structural” reforms in agriculture, by announcing a task force under the NITI Aayog. The fundamental problem to be solved is that agriculture supports 48.9 percent of the population but contributes only 14 percent to the GDP. This implies a very low standard of living for half the population. As India strives to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024 ($3 trillion today), the challenge is to reverse this trend.

Interestingly, in 1938, roughly 60 percent of the population was agriculture-dependent and policymakers had wanted this number to decline to 50 percent. A hundred years earlier, in 1871, around 90 percent of India’s population was rural. The difference was that in the 1870s, rural India comprised 65 percent of the economy.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Gus » 21 Jun 2019 08:43

anecdotally speaking...almost all of my cousins have stopped at one. I am the oldest among my peers and I have two.

As the modi govt is pulling the abject poor into lower middle class, the rate of growth will fall much faster than now.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby rhytha » 21 Jun 2019 17:53

Image

Check out more excellent stats here

http://rchiips.org/NFHS/NFHS-4Reports/TamilNadu.pdf

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby darshhan » 24 Jun 2019 18:40

Singha wrote:we need urgent measures to reduce the fertility rate to 1.5 range - 1.3 is said to be replacement rate below which pop starts to decline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_s ... ility_rate

the 4 BIMARU states with a giant pop of 400 mil are dragging us down and they have little job creation so just exporting these hordes of people to the other states.


Fine if you want to reduce TFR to 1.3 which is actually suicidal from civilizational perspective, but do also remove universal sufferage which automatically gives every adult right to vote upon reaching 18 yrs of age.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby abhik » 24 Jun 2019 19:10

vijayk wrote:Year Defence Exports in INR crores

2014-15 1940

2015-16 2059

2016-17 1521

2017-18 4682

2018-19 10,745

India's Defence exports has gone up by 5 times in last 5 years validating Successful #MakeInIndia

This is only validating screwdriver-in-India, most of this is defense offsets, as discussed in mil forum.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby abhik » 24 Jun 2019 19:52

Worrying about "over" population is passé no? Elon Musk saar (rightly) more worried about population implosion.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby williams » 24 Jun 2019 20:53

abhik wrote:This is only validating screwdriver-in-India, most of this is defense offsets, as discussed in mil forum.


That is true. The idea of making in India is to start with the screwdriver and end with "made in India" products. It is a long way to go, but we need to start somewhere.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Manu » 25 Jun 2019 03:17

https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/what-can-revive-indias-gdp-growth-consumption-and-investment/1616509/
What can revive India’s GDP growth — consumption and investment
By: Sunil Jain
Updated: June 24, 2019 2:44:32 AM
Budget 2019-20: Cutting corporate taxes, or RBI cutting repo, won’t help much if the government’s policies are seen to be hitting investments

Budget 2019: Though government economists have done a comprehensive job of demolishing ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian’s
argument that India has overestimated its GDP growth by as much as 2.5 percentage points, what is worrying is that while average growth for FY19 may be a little over 6.8%, that for the January to March quarter (Q4) has fallen to a mere 5.8% versus 8.1% a year ago. It is this growth level that India has to pull itself up from, and the prospects aren’t good, which is why some forecasts are looking at an FY20 growth that is lower than that in the previous year. While growth in private consumption levels have remained at the same 7% level in both Q1 and Q4 of FY19 (they fell from 12% to 10% in terms of current prices), investment growth has collapsed from 13% to 4% (and from 17% to 7% in current prices). In such a scenario, the only way GDP growth can pick up is if investment levels or government consumption rises dramatically—it grew from 7% in Q1 to 13% in Q4 in constant prices, and from 12% to 16% in current prices—but with the government quite cash-strapped, that isn’t a possibility; in any case, since government expenditure is just 9-10% of GDP, there is just that much it can achieve. Indeed, given the NBFC crisis, and its impact on credit growth, the downside pressure on GDP growth is even higher.

Some argue that, along with a sharp cut in corporate tax rates—India’s are amongst the highest in the world—a sharper cut in repo rates by RBI will do a lot to stimulate investment; so, while finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman can do the first in the budget, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will do the rest in the next credit policy. Both moves will help, but how much is not clear. Even if RBI cuts repo, this may not translate into lower rates for a variety of reasons, including the fact that the government-mandated savings rates on ‘small deposits’ puts a floor to bank-deposit rates and, in turn, lending rates. And tax cuts can’t help if the investment climate is poor. If an investor in a power plant can’t get enough coal to run it because the public sector monopolist Coal India isn’t producing enough, or if a bankrupt state electricity board can’t either buy the power or pay for it on time, how will a lower interest rate or a tax cut help? Though these are not strictly budget issues, traditionally budgets are used to make larger policy announcements that will be followed through during the year; so, apart from the actual numbers on deficits etc, Sitharaman’s budget will be watched for whether the government uses it to shed its anti-industry image. In the case of telecom, as this newspaper has catalogued regularly, the investment climate turned hostile even before RJio’s entry with its very low tariffs; while the government used to charge industry a revenue-share at the time it gave out spectrum almost free, it carried on with this even after it started charging an arm and a leg for the spectrum. It was relatively easy for prime minister Narendra Modi to fix this, but Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s suit-boot-ki-sarkaar jibe seemed to have given him cold feet. In the oil and gas sector, despite Modi’s professed aim to lower import dependence, oilcos do not get the market price for all their output. In the case of natural gas, only that produced from new fields will get the market price; but if firms don’t make higher profits on their existing production, how will they invest to find new gas? And while firms are free to get market prices in the case of oil, if the government specifies which buyers are to get how much oil, this ensures there is no real price discovery. Nothing exemplifies this anti-investor attitude better than the government’s treatment of UK firm Cairn Energy which, within a few years, produced a fourth of India’s oil output. It was slapped with a retrospective tax, its shares worth $1bn were confiscated and dividends etc worth $300-400mn were appropriated; indeed, when Cairn (by then sold to Vedanta) wanted an extension of its lease—so that it could add to India’s oil production—the government agreed only if Cairn raised the revenue it would share by a whopping 10 percentage points (bit.ly/2OZUy2r).
In the case of minerals like coal and iron ore—even without oil, they comprise 25% of India’s imports, and 55% with oil—hardly 10% of India’s geology has been explored even though doubling this can create another 5 million jobs. Apart from unconscionable delays in getting environment clearances, as in the telecom sector, rapacious government levies are a big problem; as compared to 8-12% levels globally, Indian levies on most non-oil minerals work out to around 30% of top-line revenues. The government is focused on increasing the country’s overall exports—this can’t be done if taxes and interest rates aren’t slashed and rigid labour laws abolished— but if imports of minerals fall due to higher local production, the forex impact is the same. If investment levels have fallen dramatically due to poor government policy, so has FDI, from 1.9% of GDP in FY16 to 1.6% in FY19. If the government changes it policy on e-commerce after Walmart spent $16bn to buy Flipkart, for instance, it is difficult to see how foreign investors are going to remain enthused. Certainly, PE funds and others will bring in money to take advantage of the bargains available at the NCLT, but greenfield investment requires a more predictable regime. Much like in 1991, the budget will be watched for whether it unleashes a slew of reforms, the new industrial policy that President Ram Nath Kovind spoke of on Thursday. How sweeping the reforms will be depends on whether prime minister Modi thinks India is in a crisis. Given the state of the fisc, the falling investment levels and the rising joblessness, the crisis is apparent even if no one is mortgaging their gold.


Any truth in above or a lot of :(( :((

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Aditya_V » 25 Jun 2019 10:55

Yes these were done in UPA -2 times, see even in Cauvery Delta they oppose Oil Drilling, BIF forces they are tied in the hip to foreign entities and will only want to 3 sectors in India- Media, Cinema and NGO sector. and 3 will ahve to kept dependant on foreign entities. Local ability to stand up and make India self reliant will be crushed. Thats why they shut down Sterlite, oppose POSCO, want Kudankulam Nuke reactors shut.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby uskumar » 25 Jun 2019 13:29

Vedanta’s $10 billion LCD project may fall flat

A Big ticket investment in Electronics Falls Flat.this at a time when we are trying to control our trade deficit and encourage Make in India

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prasad » 25 Jun 2019 13:31

Sounds a lot like babus being babus or a plant.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Gus » 25 Jun 2019 14:55

Singha wrote:perhaps good tax breaks for locally made solar , wind and battery is in order.


TN has one...

only few takers though..

http://teda.in/apply/incentive-for-dome ... ndividual/

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Singha » 25 Jun 2019 15:25

TimesNow is reporting the Antigua PM as saying Choksi baba's passport will be revoked and he deported to India.
https://www.news18.com/news/india/no-sa ... _top_pos_1

i wonder when mallya's case will come to a resolution. he has been walking up the ladder filing appeal after appeal and the UK permits a lot of them.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 25 Jun 2019 21:37

uskumar wrote:Vedanta’s $10 billion LCD project may fall flat

A Big ticket investment in Electronics Falls Flat.this at a time when we are trying to control our trade deficit and encourage Make in India


Question is ... is subsidizing good in long term or not? are we setting a precedent of demands from every company? If this is good, we need to set up a committee to process these requests professionally and announce the reasons. Otherwise, PAPPU will go around shouting CHOR CHOR. Hope we do this systematically rather than on adhoc basis

kit
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kit » 25 Jun 2019 21:48

Manu wrote:https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/what-can-revive-indias-gdp-growth-consumption-and-investment/1616509/
What can revive India’s GDP growth — consumption and investment
By: Sunil Jain
Updated: June 24, 2019 2:44:32 AM
Budget 2019-20: Cutting corporate taxes, or RBI cutting repo, won’t help much if the government’s policies are seen to be hitting investments

Budget 2019: Though government economists have done a comprehensive job of demolishing ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian’s
argument that India has overestimated its GDP growth by as much as 2.5 percentage points, what is worrying is that while average growth for FY19 may be a little over 6.8%, that for the January to March quarter (Q4) has fallen to a mere 5.8% versus 8.1% a year ago. It is this growth level that India has to pull itself up from, and the prospects aren’t good, which is why some forecasts are looking at an FY20 growth that is lower than that in the previous year. While growth in private consumption levels have remained at the same 7% level in both Q1 and Q4 of FY19 (they fell from 12% to 10% in terms of current prices), investment growth has collapsed from 13% to 4% (and from 17% to 7% in current prices). In such a scenario, the only way GDP growth can pick up is if investment levels or government consumption rises dramatically—it grew from 7% in Q1 to 13% in Q4 in constant prices, and from 12% to 16% in current prices—but with the government quite cash-strapped, that isn’t a possibility; in any case, since government expenditure is just 9-10% of GDP, there is just that much it can achieve. Indeed, given the NBFC crisis, and its impact on credit growth, the downside pressure on GDP growth is even higher.

Some argue that, along with a sharp cut in corporate tax rates—India’s are amongst the highest in the world—a sharper cut in repo rates by RBI will do a lot to stimulate investment; so, while finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman can do the first in the budget, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will do the rest in the next credit policy. Both moves will help, but how much is not clear. Even if RBI cuts repo, this may not translate into lower rates for a variety of reasons, including the fact that the government-mandated savings rates on ‘small deposits’ puts a floor to bank-deposit rates and, in turn, lending rates. And tax cuts can’t help if the investment climate is poor. If an investor in a power plant can’t get enough coal to run it because the public sector monopolist Coal India isn’t producing enough, or if a bankrupt state electricity board can’t either buy the power or pay for it on time, how will a lower interest rate or a tax cut help? Though these are not strictly budget issues, traditionally budgets are used to make larger policy announcements that will be followed through during the year; so, apart from the actual numbers on deficits etc, Sitharaman’s budget will be watched for whether the government uses it to shed its anti-industry image. In the case of telecom, as this newspaper has catalogued regularly, the investment climate turned hostile even before RJio’s entry with its very low tariffs; while the government used to charge industry a revenue-share at the time it gave out spectrum almost free, it carried on with this even after it started charging an arm and a leg for the spectrum. It was relatively easy for prime minister Narendra Modi to fix this, but Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s suit-boot-ki-sarkaar jibe seemed to have given him cold feet. In the oil and gas sector, despite Modi’s professed aim to lower import dependence, oilcos do not get the market price for all their output. In the case of natural gas, only that produced from new fields will get the market price; but if firms don’t make higher profits on their existing production, how will they invest to find new gas? And while firms are free to get market prices in the case of oil, if the government specifies which buyers are to get how much oil, this ensures there is no real price discovery. Nothing exemplifies this anti-investor attitude better than the government’s treatment of UK firm Cairn Energy which, within a few years, produced a fourth of India’s oil output. It was slapped with a retrospective tax, its shares worth $1bn were confiscated and dividends etc worth $300-400mn were appropriated; indeed, when Cairn (by then sold to Vedanta) wanted an extension of its lease—so that it could add to India’s oil production—the government agreed only if Cairn raised the revenue it would share by a whopping 10 percentage points (bit.ly/2OZUy2r).
In the case of minerals like coal and iron ore—even without oil, they comprise 25% of India’s imports, and 55% with oil—[b]hardly 10% of India’s geology has been explored even though doubling this can create another 5 million jobs[/b]. Apart from unconscionable delays in getting environment clearances, as in the telecom sector, rapacious government levies are a big problem; as compared to 8-12% levels globally, Indian levies on most non-oil minerals work out to around 30% of top-line revenues. The government is focused on increasing the country’s overall exports—this can’t be done if taxes and interest rates aren’t slashed and rigid labour laws abolished— but if imports of minerals fall due to higher local production, the forex impact is the same. If investment levels have fallen dramatically due to poor government policy, so has FDI, from 1.9% of GDP in FY16 to 1.6% in FY19. If the government changes it policy on e-commerce after Walmart spent $16bn to buy Flipkart, for instance, it is difficult to see how foreign investors are going to remain enthused. Certainly, PE funds and others will bring in money to take advantage of the bargains available at the NCLT, but greenfield investment requires a more predictable regime. Much like in 1991, the budget will be watched for whether it unleashes a slew of reforms, the new industrial policy that President Ram Nath Kovind spoke of on Thursday. How sweeping the reforms will be depends on whether prime minister Modi thinks India is in a crisis. Given the state of the fisc, the falling investment levels and the rising joblessness, the crisis is apparent even if no one is mortgaging their gold.


Any truth in above or a lot of :(( :((


only in India., one suspects whatever has been discovered so far is only a small per cent, esp rare earth elements

kit
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kit » 25 Jun 2019 21:50

I feel Modi 1.0 was a closet socialist despite professing to be capitalist oriented

Mollick.R
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mollick.R » 25 Jun 2019 22:27

Slightly tangent to the thread, still

NITI Aayog Healthy States, Progressive India' 2019 report is out.

Full report, & Executive Summary of the Report etc is available in this link very interesting to read....


https://niti.gov.in/content/healthy-states-progressive-india-report-ranks-states-and-union-territories

HT report on same subject.

These three states top in Niti Aayog's health index report

https://m.economictimes.com/news/economy/indicators/these-three-states-top-in-niti-aayogs-health-index-report/amp_articleshow/69939739.cms#stickyBanner

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby rajkumar » 25 Jun 2019 23:55

kit wrote:I feel Modi 1.0 was a closet socialist despite professing to be capitalist oriented


Is their any doubt? Anyway terms like Socialist & Capitalist are not applicable to India they are intended for a European view point


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