Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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arshyam
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby arshyam » 24 Oct 2020 08:58

KL Dubey wrote:
VenkataS wrote:
Surprisingly Telangana is doing very well much better than AP/TN/KA in terms of percentage of households having tap connections! I wonder why?

West Bengal and the other states in orange are very low in terms of percentage!


I am not sure I really believe this data. GOI seems to be underestimating things, or interpreting data differently.

E.g., I doubt whether tap water connection coverage in KL is only 26% of households. Not that KL is a paradise, but this seems way too low given the level of urbanization. If you click the states you also get district-level maps, which in many cases don't make a lot of sense.

I think they may be just showing the number of metered connections ? A lot of people may be having "jugaadi" water connections/pilferage from the main line.

I think they are counting it is as piped (and treated) water supply via the municipal body/panchayat. Then it makes sense for a state like TN - outside of Chennai/CBE/Madurai, there is not much of an underground water supply system. But most houses and older apartments have wells (this is true even in large cities like Chennai) and do have overhead tanks, piping, etc. And drinking water is delivered via tankers/cans/etc wherever underground supply is not present. So people living in these units don't necessarily step out to fetch water for their day-to-day needs. This is generally true of even small towns and most villages.

That said, if TN/KL/KA show low % connections, due to the above factors, it should also be quicker to connect them effectively as all the govt needs to do is to lay pipelines and connect the house mains, and everything is complete. As opposed to having to build the infra within the house as well. This was one of the challenges with SBM toilets as well, if one went by what they showed in the "Toilet, Ek Prem Katha" film.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby KL Dubey » 24 Oct 2020 10:21

"Arshyam", thanks for the discussion.

"Suraj", you are misunderstanding my post/question. It was not to criticize the HGJ mission (which is a fantastic program addressing a critical need) but to get clarity on what the data means. There are interesting points there.

The other poster mentioned the high % of existing connections in TG and BH...but that does not necessarily mean KCR and Nitishwa have been doing great work. Similarly in KL, it does not mean 74% people have no running tap water...it just means that many do not have a metered connection...they could be on well water. In KL many houses that have a reliable city water connection also have a well for emergency use.

Anyway, the upshot in KL would be that all those people who only have well water would get a piped city water connection and can discontinue use of the well. That would be great indeed. I wonder if the water connection would be subsidized in some way, or whether regulations on well/other untreated water use would be better enforced to accelerate adoption of piped connections.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 24 Oct 2020 22:58

KL Dubey, and you and the others are misunderstanding the purpose of posting that data. The JJM site may be arguably no more accurate than SBM, Saubhagya or other sites were - they all look pretty much similar and quite likely constitute a PMO dashboard that is reviewed probably at least biweekly at that level. This means that at the PMO level, the leadership desires to see data reported in this manner. We are seeing that same data - whatever its alleged shortcoming may be.

The purpose in this thread, is to iteratively track the JJM progress, by whatever method they use to evaluate it. The specific details of their evaluation mechanism are a separate topic in itself. The state vs state issues are also a separate topic. Neither are suitable to this thread. It's important to understand , for course, but most importantly, it's not for this thread - there is a thread on water resources. Remember, when pushing an effort of this level, the leadership cannot spin their tyres in the mud chasing data perfection. They need one 'good enough' metric, and data consistently reported in an iterative manner by that metric. Improving that metric is a separate topic, and often involves discontinuity in regressions because the historical data suddenly stops being apples-to-apples.

In general, anyone who claim 'I don't really believe this data' needs to make an effort to find data to back their alternative position up with. As I recall, someone similarly came up with a critique of HDI when that was discussed elsewhere. They were asked after multiple posts of criticism to come up with some other data that suited their worldview, but they disappeared.

So by all means, take the effort to read the JJM site in detail, understand their methodology and how that ties in to your own assumptions about what's going on. But give it real rigor please. At best, the conversation so far has sounded parochial 'my state vs some other state' even if that's not the intention, because there is no rigor in any of the posts.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 24 Oct 2020 23:01

Meanwhile forex reserves continue their generally upward trend towards $600B:
India's forex reserves rises to US$ 555.12 billion as on 16 October 2020

As a note, all RBI forex data is reported for the end of the week prior. This has been the case for as long as I have seen this on the RBI site. That's why it says as of Oct 16. The data as of Oct 23 will be reported next week.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Prasad » 24 Oct 2020 23:06

I know these aren't like cash in your savings account but how do you leverage these reserves if say you have to put in some money into a domestic investment in a jv/special vehicle for a foreign company to come setup a big manufacturing facility?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 25 Oct 2020 00:00

Forex reserves constitute inflows that have already come into the country - export earning, FII inflows, FDI inflow, remittances from you and me... It has been exchanged for local currency at the RBI. The RBI holds the foreign currency itself (as it is not legal tender) and releases a corresponding amount of Rupees into the economy. To combat inflation, it does something called 'sterilization', which involves issuing bonds for those Rupees so that the amount of liquidity remains well controlled. Meanwhile the RBI invests that growing pile of foreign currency in various safe investments like US treasuries - India holds almost $200 billion of US debt as of August 2020.

Forex reserves can't be leverages to set up things in India because India uses its own currency. They're used (e.g. by sovereign wealth funds) to invest externally. SWFs have a bad rap for mismanaging their assets, and that is a separate topic.

A separate factor that affects ability to utilize forex reserves is external debt corresponding to it. When you put $1000 in an NRE account, Indian forex reserves rose $1000, but so did external debt, because NRE accounts are repatriable. So RBI needs to keep it in the books that the money may be taken out . In comparison, export gains don't have an associated debt bookkeeping entry since they are clear accumulation of capital in exchange for goods exported. When we run a current account surplus, reserves grow more than external debt does and generates wealth that can be utilized internally.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby arshyam » 25 Oct 2020 01:33

Since I am one of the "others", let me reply briefly. Also, this will be my last post on this topic as it is OT for this thread.

Suraj wrote:In general, anyone who claim 'I don't really believe this data' needs to make an effort to find data to back their alternative position up with. As I recall, someone similarly came up with a critique of HDI when that was discussed elsewhere. They were asked after multiple posts of criticism to come up with some other data that suited their worldview, but they disappeared.

Dubey saar also clarified, and my position is similar - these explanations are given in order for us on BRF to understand the data ourselves and hopefully try to increase its credibility amongst our readers too. I don't see why parochialism comes into it. That the PMO follows this data is a good thing (actually goes without saying) and they have taken a data-driven approach to most of their initiatives. No one is questioning that approach or the metric itself. Like you said, it's perfectly all right to find a good enough metric and stick to it. But there will definitely be some surprise reactions among the lay public at large when they see that data (and politically will blame the govt for fudging, etc. OT here, but relevant to an extent). So adding some clarifications around the data set chosen by the PMO couldn't hurt - it only helps our readers and lurkers who can take that perspective along with the data they are presented with and hopefully share both when dealing with others outside of the forum. In a manner of speaking, we are trying to anticipate the questions that will eventually arise and address them ahead of the curve, so to speak :).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby KL Dubey » 25 Oct 2020 02:03

My last post on this too....

"Suraj" -

Yes, I understood your intent. You have posted the JJM/HGJ tracking before and we discussed it briefly.

Yes, totally fine by me to discuss details as they become available on the Water thread. I'm personally very interested in that.

I did offer possible reasons why the data may be variable, and other poster "Arshyam" substantiated it. At least we now understand that HGJ likely covers a lot, from people who have never seen a running tap in their house to people who may have the in-house infrastructure but lack a city connection. That is excellent, since it means GOI is taking/will take care of all these folks.

BRF may be ahead of the curve if tomorrow the baselines change due to better audit of the data...!

Not sure why you saw a "my state" factor. TG is almost equally "my state", and I am not sure why their numbers are so high. Maybe each state is reporting the baseline differently, and GOI has just used whatever it got (makes sense).

That's it from me on this. Can't be any more "rigorous" unless more details of the data get published. Indeed, the final results at the end of the mission matter the most.

sarve bhavantu sukhinah!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby KL Dubey » 25 Oct 2020 02:16

About the previous HDI discussion, I didn't "disappear". I simply pointed out that (1) HDI is not a useful indicator for most countries, and (2) in my final two posts I suggested what indicators could better be used.

That is a valid purpose of a discussion forum where one can raise useful points, but it is not incumbent on me to provide my own table of rankings...!! And of course, HDI was not your personal effort either...you only posted the existing data. I actually offered analysis of it and concluded every country essentially follows the same trajectory unless there is some major upheaval.

Obviously, I can't personally provide data tracking the employment outcomes of students who were on the school rolls for 12 years (and thus were considered by HDI-wallahs to be better developed humans).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 25 Oct 2020 02:49

The forum has a desire to discourage armchair nitpicking in general. It fosters an environment where people feel comfortable simply offering cursory critiques on topics before moving on to the next topic. All general conversation has an element of that, but a forum like BRF has an establish record and maintains a legacy of conversation so we prioritize people actually digging at length. Not challenging people means everyone - established and new members - become comfortable with just that level of analysis; this does not suit the forum at large and it's an important moderation role to push people to dig more. I'm not mocking you - I'm pushing you to do better than say you don't believe something, and then offer merely some unsubstantiated reasons.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Rishirishi » 25 Oct 2020 08:25

Suraj wrote:Forex reserves constitute inflows that have already come into the country - export earning, FII inflows, FDI inflow, remittances from you and me... It has been exchanged for local currency at the RBI. The RBI holds the foreign currency itself (as it is not legal tender) and releases a corresponding amount of Rupees into the economy. To combat inflation, it does something called 'sterilization', which involves issuing bonds for those Rupees so that the amount of liquidity remains well controlled. Meanwhile the RBI invests that growing pile of foreign currency in various safe investments like US treasuries - India holds almost $200 billion of US debt as of August 2020.

Forex reserves can't be leverages to set up things in India because India uses its own currency. They're used (e.g. by sovereign wealth funds) to invest externally. SWFs have a bad rap for mismanaging their assets, and that is a separate topic.

A separate factor that affects ability to utilize forex reserves is external debt corresponding to it. When you put $1000 in an NRE account, Indian forex reserves rose $1000, but so did external debt, because NRE accounts are repatriable. So RBI needs to keep it in the books that the money may be taken out . In comparison, export gains don't have an associated debt bookkeeping entry since they are clear accumulation of capital in exchange for goods exported. When we run a current account surplus, reserves grow more than external debt does and generates wealth that can be utilized internally.



India's foreign debt is 550 billio against reserves of a simmilar ammount. {Deleted}
Last edited by Suraj on 25 Oct 2020 10:38, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: We don't do that sort of comparison here.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby arshyam » 25 Oct 2020 08:57

Rishirishi wrote:India's foreign debt is 550 billio against reserves of a simmilar ammount.

While factually correct, that's only a partial picture. What is the breakup between long term and short term debt? It's the short term debt one has to be wary of. Then there would be foreign deposits and investments - so what's the breakup between foreign deposits, FII inflows and FDI inflows? These, and any other components I might have missed would give a more rounded picture.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nandakumar » 25 Oct 2020 09:35

In the June quarter India's current account turned into a surplus. Not a very large surplus but not minuscule either. With oil prices slated to be soft for the better part of 2021 and import substitution in key sectors taking hold (Production Linked Incentive scheme) plus exports gaining some kind of stability in the medium term our BoP situation is quite comfortable in the medium term.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chola » 25 Oct 2020 13:39

nandakumar wrote:In the June quarter India's current account turned into a surplus. Not a very large surplus but not minuscule either. With oil prices slated to be soft for the better part of 2021 and import substitution in key sectors taking hold (Production Linked Incentive scheme) plus exports gaining some kind of stability in the medium term our BoP situation is quite comfortable in the medium term.


The BoP situation is actually not comfortable. We have been gaining a surplus in forex because our imports have dropped off the cliff due to the contraction in our economy. Like the US, India is a domestically focused continent economy which will always import more when healthy.

If we were an export-oriented economy like SoKo or Taiwan then the surplus is more of an indication of health.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nandakumar » 25 Oct 2020 19:15

According to the Commerce Ministry data our imports are down by $100 billion between April-September this year compared to the same period last year. On the face of it, that does seem like a drop 'off the cliff' as you put it. But if you drill it down a little deeper these are my findings.
1. Crude petroleum and refined petroleum products (mostly LPG which too I am sure there has been only an increase if any) are down by $ 34 billion. The reason is obvious. It is due only to substantial decline in crude prices although there has been some decline in volume terms if the petroleum ministry's monthly data is anything to go by.
2. Bullion (gold and silver) is down by $ 10 billion. Now this is a good decline as a good chunk of it is used up as investments driven.
3. Then there are export driven decline in imports. Gem and Jewelry imports are down by $ 6 billion which would have ben reflected in corresponding fall in exports. Yes there is significant value addition by skilled Indian labour. While that hurts the GDP as a whole from a BoP perspective it is not hurting us.
4, Coal is down by $ 6 billion. But this could be due to ramp up in renewable energy production.
5, I am not saying that slow down in the economy is not a factor and hence should the economy recover the imports would bounce back. But looking at the figures for the first six months it does seem that our surpluses in service exports and inward remittances can handle it comfortably from a BoP perspective.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 25 Oct 2020 22:43

chola wrote:The BoP situation is actually not comfortable. We have been gaining a surplus in forex because our imports have dropped off the cliff due to the contraction in our economy. Like the US, India is a domestically focused continent economy which will always import more when healthy.

That is a laughable argument, I'm afraid. I used to think so and even believed western eggspurts who claimed 'poor countries should not export capital - they need to import capital goods to industrialize' . This all 'seemed' to make sense, but reality is far from the theory.

India is NOTHING like the US. The US is not a domestic focused economy, and one cannot make the argument on the basis of a single item - merchandise trade. The US owns the currency that underpins most of global goods trade, the trade in hydrocarbons and more. It is not even remotely a domestic focused economy. Its post war trade policies drove the modern global trading system.

India does not have a trade deficit due to import of capital goods or even due to 'domestic focused economy'. Our typical current account deficit is driven by oil imports and an insatitable thirst for gold. Neither of these constitute capital goods. We quite often run a surplus when not counting crude imports. Of course, this is a 'if my grandma had a gonad...' argument.

India does not run a 'domestic focused economy'. It instead continuously failed to run good trade policy, and that includes this government - which has struggled to really get Make In India off the ground, and only cracked down on the flood of Chinese goods post Galwan. Today, we have in place the contours of a workable economic policy - a high level domestic manufacturing policy (Make in India + Atmanirbhar Bharat), an FDI enticement policy that is actually popular (Production Linked Incentive), and a conflict situation that has allowed Chinese imports to be largely blocked - something that should permanently be in place.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vipins » 25 Oct 2020 22:59

VenkataS wrote:
Suraj wrote:Continuing my efforts to keep with the Jal Jeevan Mission every month:
15 Oct 2020


Almost 30% coverage now, starting at 17% when JJM began on Aug 15 2019. Here is the live dashboard.

Prior statuses:


Surprisingly Telangana is doing very well much better than AP/TN/KA in terms of percentage of households having tap connections! I wonder why?

West Bengal and the other states in orange are very low in terms of percentage!

Telangana already have a program for drinking water supply since 2016.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby KL Dubey » 26 Oct 2020 07:39

vipins wrote:
VenkataS wrote:
Surprisingly Telangana is doing very well much better than AP/TN/KA in terms of percentage of households having tap connections! I wonder why?

West Bengal and the other states in orange are very low in terms of percentage!

Telangana already have a program for drinking water supply since 2016.


That's the info I was looking for. So in TG there has been real progress already by KCR. I was aware he did a lot of work on securing water supplies (a relative of mine has implemented many of these projects commercially and reported directly to KCR for a while), but hadn't realized the inroads made into providing tap connections.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chola » 26 Oct 2020 15:22

Suraj wrote: Today, we have in place the contours of a workable economic policy - a high level domestic manufacturing policy (Make in India + Atmanirbhar Bharat), an FDI enticement policy that is actually popular (Production Linked Incentive), and a conflict situation that has allowed Chinese imports to be largely blocked - something that should permanently be in place.


Suraj ji, MII and AB and good FDI those are things we all hope for. But they are still aspirations. You cannot get to the fruits of those policies in a few months, especially not during a pandemic with lockdowns.

This is like saying Indian pharma no longer needs chini API or the electronics business no longer needs parts from cheen. But that is untrue despite policies. They will become true eventually but cannot happen overnight.

Imports have gone down across the board not just for Cheen's. In fact, the chinis have actually increased their share of our imports because it was much worse for everyone else.

https://www.cnbctv18.com/videos/economy/trade-data-during-pandemic-throws-up-surprise-7238791.htm

Top countries for imports in Apr-August FY21 (Table 3)
Country Import % Change
China $21.58 billion (-27.63%)
US $9.76 billion (-41.73%)
UAE $6.26 billion (-47.38%)


The irony is even our export surplus is dependent on Cheen because it is the only growing economy and everyone else has collapsed.
Top export destinations in April-August (Table 1)
Country Trade % Change
US: $16.79 billion (-24.62%)
China: $8.96 billion (27.35%)
UAE: $5.16 billion (-59.20%)


Imports fell because of a drop in the domestic economy and, barring Cheen, exports fell too because rest of the world also suffered.

At any rate, we shouldn't be too overjoy on the surplus now nor should we be too sadden when we go BOP negative again as the Indian economy revs up.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 26 Oct 2020 20:51

Do we have data somewhere, on what have reduced importing? I know oil(reduced cost) and gold, but no specific data on other items. With respect to China, we have hit them on non-essentials imports.

The exports to Chinis have primarily increased in steel and ore.

Do we have any data on the effect in the finished goods sector? Both imports and export?

Our import exports are skewed by Oil, gold and raw materials. Oil is large import, so is processed oil products a large export item.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 26 Oct 2020 21:34

chola boss, saying 'trade fell during pandemic' doesn't add anything new - everyone knows that already. For what it's worth, Indian monthly export data has already returned to pre-pandemic levels. It's imports that remain subdued, and is what is contributing to current account surplus.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 26 Oct 2020 21:42

https://www.rediff.com/business/column/ ... 201019.htm
Virus has done for Modi what IMF did for Rao


On the first, my view is that macroeconomic targeting is itself silly. It's like asking someone to drive at the same speed, regardless of traffic conditions.

The point is this: Macroeconomic management is a function of many things and is pretty much done month by month, depending on what is actually happening -- not regardless of it.

That's why economists who have been insistently demanding that the government should spend a lot immediately, have got it only half right.

Spend, yes, of course; but immediately? What happens if China attacks?

There's still about 50 days left before winter sets in fully. Should not some fiscal room be left for that contingency


Contingent discretion

So, it's not that a government will not spend. Rest assured, it will. It is, after all, in its political interests to do so. Cats don't need persuasion to drink milk unless they have upset stomachs.

But timing is something that economists can dictate only as much as spectators can tell a batsman what shot to play and when. If batting is a dependent variable, so is government spending.



Nor should we forget that when between 2014 and 2019 Narendra Modi targeted keeping both of them low, unemployment went up massively, causing a huge deflation compounded by demonetisation.

In that sense, the virus has come as a blessing and not just for structural reform.

If the IMF held a gun to Narasimha Rao's head in 1991, it's the virus that has done it to Mr Modi.

That's why he is now finally focusing on the two things that alone can help: Fiscal expansion -- from December onwards -- and supply management via amended laws and rules that affect business.

It will all start paying off next year, if a border skirmish can be averted.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nachiket » 26 Oct 2020 23:42

vijayk wrote:That's why he is now finally focusing on the two things that alone can help: Fiscal expansion -- from December onwards --

Did the government announce any specific measures in this regard that I missed?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 27 Oct 2020 00:16

nachiket wrote:
vijayk wrote:That's why he is now finally focusing on the two things that alone can help: Fiscal expansion -- from December onwards --

Did the government announce any specific measures in this regard that I missed?


May be they are referring to opportunities for private companies in railways, airports, defense, infra, logistics etc. ?

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/niti-aayo ... investment
Government's apex think tank NITI Aayog has initiated the groundwork for selecting the next set of public sector enterprises for strategic sales and disinvestments, reports Economic Times.

NITI Aayog will today hold a preliminary meeting to identify more such enterprises. It has already asked varied ministries under the Government to recommend names of such enterprises which could be considered for strategic sale involving the transfer of both, ownership and control.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nachiket » 27 Oct 2020 00:25

vijayk wrote:May be they are referring to opportunities for private companies in railways, airports, defense, infra, logistics etc. ?

https://swarajyamag.com/insta/niti-aayo ... investment
Government's apex think tank NITI Aayog has initiated the groundwork for selecting the next set of public sector enterprises for strategic sales and disinvestments, reports Economic Times.

NITI Aayog will today hold a preliminary meeting to identify more such enterprises. It has already asked varied ministries under the Government to recommend names of such enterprises which could be considered for strategic sale involving the transfer of both, ownership and control.

PSU disinvestment is not fiscal expansion. Quite the opposite in a way. You are asking the private sector to invest and buy government assets. Fiscal expansion would be if they announced direct cash transfers to people, or GST rate cuts etc., basically using government money (borrowing more if needed) to increase liquidity in the system. Perhaps what the author was referring to was the loan interest waiver that was announced by the government recently or he expects something more after December that we don't know about.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JTull » 27 Oct 2020 00:33

nachiket wrote:
vijayk wrote:That's why he is now finally focusing on the two things that alone can help: Fiscal expansion -- from December onwards --

Did the government announce any specific measures in this regard that I missed?


Lousy article!

Fiscal expenditure has nearly doubled since 2014. Road, rail, Port Infrastructure investments are 10 times they were with previous govt. Not to mention electricity production and distribution. Direct subsidy distribution has made govt expenditure more efficient.

Also, Inflation targeting was need of he hour in 2014, to reduce cost of funding for private and public sectors. Crony capitalism and inflation had nearly bankrupted the country before that. Low crude prices were a big help too.

This govt has made many mistakes but fiscal expenditure and inflation targeting weren't among those.
Last edited by JTull on 27 Oct 2020 02:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Ambar » 27 Oct 2020 01:11

nam wrote:Do we have data somewhere, on what have reduced importing? I know oil(reduced cost) and gold, but no specific data on other items. With respect to China, we have hit them on non-essentials imports.

The exports to Chinis have primarily increased in steel and ore.

Do we have any data on the effect in the finished goods sector? Both imports and export?

Our import exports are skewed by Oil, gold and raw materials. Oil is large import, so is processed oil products a large export item.


Its a pain to easily get trade and BoP data for India, and especially so because even when one manages to find the data it is seldom in easy to read dashboard/graph form.

The current pandemic has completely skewed the data for all the countries and not just for India. Everyone thought the auto sector is done for in March, but now the reverse has happened due to pent up demand and a lot of new buyers vary to use public transit. We may have to wait until 2022 to see things go back to relative normalcy.

Suraj, i was unable to find the data on capital goods imports for the recent years but I remember for 2018-19 the capital goods import remained one of the largest components of total imports, and when industrial equipment and power sector equipment were combined it exceeded gold to be the 3rd largest category after oil and consumer goods.

arshyam - India's short term debt as a % of total external debt is ~19%. This although an improvement compared to the near 25% of total debt during the last few years of UPA-2, it has continued to creep up from 2017 onwards. Similarly, India's total external debt after a brief slowdown between 2015-2017 has since picked up pace is ~25% higher than it was in 2014 at $554 billion compared to $446 billion in 2014.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby JTull » 27 Oct 2020 02:07


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Ambar » 27 Oct 2020 03:33

Thanks Jethroji, i was looking for capital goods and consumer goods imports data, and had to hunt for it all around the internet. A simple quarterly and annualized graphs in USD for many of trade and BoP components like they have for EU or US would be so helpful. Maybe a project for Ministry of Statistics and program implementation.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 27 Oct 2020 14:37

Lot of our imports from China are purely on consideration of cost. We can easily produce electrical equipment, but the ones from China are cheaper, not because they are better.

This is where GoI needs to crack down hard on Chinese subsidized imports, which undercut our producers.

There was a report on one Chinese company now assembling Iphone. It has already received 1B in subsidy, despite being 15-20% in size of Foxconn!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mollick.R » 28 Oct 2020 16:10

X-post from manufacturing thread.........

If true, then must say this is hugeeee & mithai time...............

Tata Group to invest Rs 5,000 crore in plant that will manufacture components for Apple: Report
Apple's contract manufacturer Foxconn already assembles the iPhone 11 at a plant in Sriperumbudur, Tamil Nadu.


Moneycontrol News

The Tata Group will invest Rs 5,000 crore to create a facility that will manufacture components for iPhone-maker Apple.
Tata Electronics, a new entity, was allotted 500 acres by TIDCO (Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation) for the manufacturing plant at the industrial complex in Hosur, BusinessLine reported.

Tata Group’s investment in the facility might be hiked later, based on the level of sourcing, to as much as Rs 8,000 crore, the report said. Moneycontrol could not independently verify the story.

Neither the Tata Group nor the Tamil Nadu government confirmed the development as per the report. Titan Engineering and Automation (TEAL), a unit of Titan, will provide the expertise for setting up the production facility, the report said.

According to the report, the Bhoomi Pujan of the facility was held on October 27. The manufacturing plant will have 18,000 employees by October 2021, of which 90 percent will be women, the report added.


https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/tata-group-to-invest-rs-5000-crore-in-plant-that-will-manufacture-components-for-apple-report-6027221.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Dilbu » 28 Oct 2020 21:41

India's Economy Accelerates In September As Animal Spirits Soar
India's economy picked up speed in September as a revival in demand and business activity helped drive the South Asian nation toward recovery from the pandemic-induced slump.

Five of the eight high-frequency indicators, including exports, tracked by Bloomberg News improved last month, while three were steady. That helped move the needle on a dial measuring the so-called 'Animal Spirits' to 5 from 4 in August -- a level arrived at by using the three-month weighted average to smooth out volatility in the single-month readings.

Economists, including those at the Reserve Bank of India, attributed the recovery to pent-up demand after a strict lockdown imposed in March to contain the coronavirus outbreak hit the consumption of goods and services. While inventory re-stocking will underpin business activity in the coming months, the improvement might still not be enough to prevent Asia's third-largest economy from contracting in the financial year to March 2021.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 29 Oct 2020 03:40

The Tata investment is the perfect example of "it is all about demand". The ecosystem will start trickling in and building up, once there is push towards getting the big boys from US, SK, Japan & Taiwan.

We need to give tax breaks, SEZ, flavoured water, umbrella whatever it takes to bring the companies of these countries to India.

Two countries form 95% of Chinese trade surplus. US & India. i.e 410B of 430B!

Time to break that surplus.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nam » 29 Oct 2020 03:41

Confirmation from the TamilNadu CM himself.

https://twitter.com/CMOTamilNadu/status/1321479512165552128

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 29 Oct 2020 05:14

nam wrote:Lot of our imports from China are purely on consideration of cost. We can easily produce electrical equipment, but the ones from China are cheaper, not because they are better.
This is where GoI needs to crack down hard on Chinese subsidized imports, which undercut our producers.

Cost is only one aspect, and a very important one - so that at least 75-80% of imports can be curbed with some amount of disincentivizing via customs duties for local replacements. But let's not forget the other benefits that the Chinese ecosystem provides:
1. Quality - the fit & finish of Chinese equipment is actually very good, even with some cost differential, compared with our local stuff - doesn't always hold and may not be important in all cases, but our industry needs to keep quality in mind
2. Range of products - here the Chinese behemoth is unsurpassed. The breadth of items produced by China can be selectively used by our manufacturers to expand their catalogs thru imports, while concentrating on producing locally the high volume items.
3. Scale - you need 100 you buy desi; you need 10000 you may have to get it from China; unless you are willing to wait, which is the next point
4. Schedules - their manufacturing, supply chain and logistics are perfectly honed in order to deliver on schedule come what may
5. Level of manufacturing - whether you wish to buy the raw materials, or the first order input component, or the second order intermediate, or finished bulk, or finished and packaged - you can get someone in China to supply it to you
6. Integration - related to the above, if your widget requires integration with 2 disparate components, you can get both components made in China, assembled together, and packaged - someone will do it for you instead of saying "no we can't do it"
7. Innovation - Chinese exporters address the customers need; Indian manufacturers continue making the stuff they have always made, for the most part

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Anoop.G » 29 Oct 2020 05:57

nam wrote:Confirmation from the TamilNadu CM himself.

https://twitter.com/CMOTamilNadu/status/1321479512165552128


This has been confirmed to me by last night the Tata's CEO designate of this venture. He is a batchmate of mine and an old Tata employee. The formal appointment is yet to be made.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby bharathp » 29 Oct 2020 09:17

yensoy wrote:
nam wrote:Lot of our imports from China are purely on consideration of cost. We can easily produce electrical equipment, but the ones from China are cheaper, not because they are better.
This is where GoI needs to crack down hard on Chinese subsidized imports, which undercut our producers.

Cost is only one aspect, and a very important one - so that at least 75-80% of imports can be curbed with some amount of disincentivizing via customs duties for local replacements. But let's not forget the other benefits that the Chinese ecosystem provides:
1. Quality - the fit & finish of Chinese equipment is actually very good, even with some cost differential, compared with our local stuff - doesn't always hold and may not be important in all cases, but our industry needs to keep quality in mind
2. Range of products - here the Chinese behemoth is unsurpassed. The breadth of items produced by China can be selectively used by our manufacturers to expand their catalogs thru imports, while concentrating on producing locally the high volume items.
3. Scale - you need 100 you buy desi; you need 10000 you may have to get it from China; unless you are willing to wait, which is the next point
4. Schedules - their manufacturing, supply chain and logistics are perfectly honed in order to deliver on schedule come what may
5. Level of manufacturing - whether you wish to buy the raw materials, or the first order input component, or the second order intermediate, or finished bulk, or finished and packaged - you can get someone in China to supply it to you
6. Integration - related to the above, if your widget requires integration with 2 disparate components, you can get both components made in China, assembled together, and packaged - someone will do it for you instead of saying "no we can't do it"
7. Innovation - Chinese exporters address the customers need; Indian manufacturers continue making the stuff they have always made, for the most part

3 aspects here:
1) innovation
2) bundling (number of items that can be sourced)
3) scale

all fine points. but that doesnt mean it cannot be challenged.

the challenge need not be in entire spectrum but can be in niche sectors to begin with and slowly build from there.

facebook had an early start and google couldnt break the netwrok effects trying to replicate using google+ but instagram and twitter have become formidable on their own.

every problem has a solution - usually multiple solutions.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mollick.R » 29 Oct 2020 16:14

Tightening the screws on Chini guys.........
This also begs same repeatedly asked questions.......
Why it took so Long ? & Why it was being ignored in first place to begin with ??

India issues quality control order for some leather goods to restrict cheap imports
By Kirtika Suneja, ET Bureau Last Updated: Oct 29, 2020, 01:33 PM IST

NEW DELHI: India on Thursday notified a quality control order on leather footwear and products in a move that will restrict their cheap imports into the country the central government, after consulting the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), is of the opinion that it is “necessary or expedient so to do in the public interest”.

The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) mandated the BIS with the certification of ten such products including leather safety boots and shoes, canvas boots rubber sole, sports footwear and antiriot shoes in the Footwear made from Leather and other materials (Quality Control) Order, 2020. India imported leather articles worth $ 453.12 million in FY20 of which $318.45 million came from China.
.
.
The order follows the Toys (Quality Control) Order that requires all toys and material for children below 14 years to be certified by the BIS which is India’s national standards body.

The department had in January issued quality norms to control imports of steel tubes, tubulars and other wrought steel fittings, steel tubes for structural purposes and water wells, along with heavy duty electric cables, aerial bunched cables, elastomer insulated cables, welding cables, shot firing cables and halogen-free, flame retardant cables.

Toys, furniture, sports goods and glass items are some of the products in a list of about 370 for which technical standards have been in the works since late last year and seek to reduce dependence on imports and improve domestic manufacturing.



Read Full Article Here//ET Link
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-notifies-quality-control-order-for-some-leather-goods-to-restrict-cheap-imports/articleshow/78927981.cms?utm_source=ETTopNews&utm_medium=HP&utm_campaign=TN&utm_content=23

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chola » 29 Oct 2020 16:23

yensoy wrote:
nam wrote:Lot of our imports from China are purely on consideration of cost. We can easily produce electrical equipment, but the ones from China are cheaper, not because they are better.
This is where GoI needs to crack down hard on Chinese subsidized imports, which undercut our producers.

Cost is only one aspect, and a very important one - so that at least 75-80% of imports can be curbed with some amount of disincentivizing via customs duties for local replacements. But let's not forget the other benefits that the Chinese ecosystem provides:
1. Quality - the fit & finish of Chinese equipment is actually very good, even with some cost differential, compared with our local stuff - doesn't always hold and may not be important in all cases, but our industry needs to keep quality in mind
2. Range of products - here the Chinese behemoth is unsurpassed. The breadth of items produced by China can be selectively used by our manufacturers to expand their catalogs thru imports, while concentrating on producing locally the high volume items.
3. Scale - you need 100 you buy desi; you need 10000 you may have to get it from China; unless you are willing to wait, which is the next point
4. Schedules - their manufacturing, supply chain and logistics are perfectly honed in order to deliver on schedule come what may
5. Level of manufacturing - whether you wish to buy the raw materials, or the first order input component, or the second order intermediate, or finished bulk, or finished and packaged - you can get someone in China to supply it to you
6. Integration - related to the above, if your widget requires integration with 2 disparate components, you can get both components made in China, assembled together, and packaged - someone will do it for you instead of saying "no we can't do it"
7. Innovation - Chinese exporters address the customers need; Indian manufacturers continue making the stuff they have always made, for the most part


Good sobering post, Yensoy ji.

BUT #6 includes not only integration with components in Cheen but also those in the other manufavturing centers in the Far East -- Japan, Korea and Taiwan.

The chinis and their ilk are simply more integrated as a region which will be a great advantage with the world de-globalizing.

It is really stark with what's happening now with Covid and the trade war.

Everyone is suffering except the f-ing Far East. It is not Cheen only but Japan, Korea and Taiwan too.

Anyone who thinks the Japs, Koreans and Taiwanese will abandon Cheen needs only to see how they've acted so far during the trade/tech war and the Wuhan virus. Some might expand into other countries to get around tariffs. But they won't leave Cheen. It is a "China + 1" strategy. Cheen is always there. Other countries might or might not be the "+ 1." It is a symbiosis where they gain over everyone else.
https://www.reuters.com/article/asia-economy/analysis-as-covid-persists-and-u-s-election-nears-china-growth-lifts-asia-idUSL4N2HJ1IM

Analysis: As COVID persists and U.S. election nears, China growth lifts Asia
By Stella Qiu, Cynthia Kim

BEIJING/SEOUL (Reuters) - Asia is starting to see signs of economic recovery as it rides on the back of an upturn in China, which is entering a new expansion phase less than a year after it recorded the world’s first cases of COVID-19.

...

“As the world contracts by 4% in 2020, China is set to grow around 2%. And come 2021, a key support for world growth of around 6% will be near-10% growth in China.”

For China’s neighbours, that growth is increasing demand for their exports and supporting activity in their own economies. “China remains the only major commodity consumer where industrial production is now higher than pre-COVID levels,” Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts said.

China’s imports surged 13.2% year-on-year in September, with a 28% rise in semiconductor imports a boon for Taiwan and South Korea in particular.

The flow-on for Seoul is already evident. Data on Tuesday showed South Korea posted its fastest quarterly growth rate in a decade in the September quarter, expanding a seasonally adjusted 1.9% after a 3.2% contraction the previous quarter.

Exports soared 15.6% in the third quarter, the biggest rise since 1986 and largely reversing a 16.1% contraction in the second quarter.

“Exports rapidly improved on the back of recovery in China and other major economies, which spearheaded our third quarter growth,” Finance minister Hong Nam-ki said on Tuesday. China’s early recovery has also been a relief for Japan, as China is the destination for more than 22% of its overall exports, just ahead of the 19% share that heads to the United States.

Japan’s exports to China jumped 14% in the year to September, the biggest rise in more than two years, driven by robust demand for nonferrous metals, chip-making equipment and automobiles.

That is giving the Bank of Japan some optimism over the domestic outlook, with industry feedback pointing to improving demand from China.

“Automobile sales in China are increasing from year before levels after economic activity resumed. We’re seeing an increase in auto-parts exports to China,” a transport machinery maker in Nagoya was quoted as saying in the BOJ’s quarterly report on the regional economies.

Taiwan is also benefiting, even as political tensions with Beijing remain high. Its exports to China rose an annual 22% in September, and export orders, a key leading gauge for global tech demand, rose 9.9% as Chinese orders jumped by almost one-third.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mollick.R » 29 Oct 2020 16:45

From Twitter

Prof Shamika Ravi@ShamikaRavi

Tweet#1

Bihar in the last 40 years - under different leaders.
2005 - very clearly - brought major structural break.
#LeadershipMatters


Tweet#2

Growth across states of India over time:
(answers most of your Qs)


Image

Image


https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1321331264104755201

https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1321362037117571072


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