Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

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sudarshan
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Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 22 Aug 2019 08:05

I'm starting a new thread on a subject which I expect to become a hot topic in the coming months. There have been a number of policy initiatives and goals in India, relating to environmental concerns, introduction of BS-VI norms for vehicles, push towards electric vehicles, renewable energy sources, etc. I'm pretty excited about the implications from the point of view of pollution reduction, improved health of citizens, reduction in cases of asthma/ allergies, other deadly diseases like lung cancers, etc. Depending on whom you ask, either 19 of the top 20, 14 of the top 15, 9 of the top 10, etc. of the most polluted cities in the world are in India. Kanpur seems to lead the pack, ahead of even Delhi/ Mumbai.

I've been doing a good bit of research on these topics, and some of the exciting areas are as follows:

  • Push towards electric vehicles
    • While China is attacking the problem from the point of view of electric cars, India has made enormous strides in electrifying the three-wheeler (auto) fleet, and is also moving towards electrifying the two-wheeler (scooter/ moped) fleet
    • In addition, a large number of electric buses are already plying/ on their way to ply on Indian roads
    • While China is the true leader in electric buses (90% of all e-bus sales are in China, and the city of Shanghai now has 16,000 electric buses, which means its entire fleet is electric), India would be in second place (though a very distant second)
    • China has already seen dramatic drops (north of 70%) in SO2, NOx, etc. pollution, and Beijing is rapidly moving away from being a highly polluted city
    • I'm excited about the same thing happening in Indian cities
    • Associated problems:
      • The electricity grid needs to rely on cleaner sources for true pollution reduction, no point in having clean vehicles if there is more pollution at the source
      • Do we have the resources necessary - lithium, cobalt, etc. - to have a truly fully electric fleet? Limiting resources would limit the number of batteries that can be built, in turn restricting the number of electric vehicles. Recycling could be key.
      • Alternatively, are there other emerging battery technologies (iron-air, aluminium-air) which would not have these resource limitations?
  • India is rolling out BS-VI norms for both vehicles and cleaner fuels, years ahead of schedule
    • Per some studies that I've been reading about, in the near term, adoption of cleaner fuel and vehicle manufacturing norms would have a much greater impact on pollution mitigation than just electrifying the fleet
    • India's BS-VI norms seem to be pretty comprehensive (based on Euro-6 norms, but with adaptations), and these norms also cover pollution monitoring at the dashboard of cars
    • The earlier BS-IV norms, when they were rolled out (India is skipping BS-V and going directly to BS-VI from BS-IV) initially specified a ban on manufacture of non-BS-IV compliant vehicles, but did not prohibit sale of existing non-BS-IV vehicles
    • However, with BS-VI, after April 2020, there is a comprehensive ban on even the sale of existing BS-IV vehicles - only BS-VI vehicles may be sold after April 2020
    • Many cities in India (8, I believe) have already upgraded to BS-VI fuels, so the availability of the fuel is not an issue post April 2020
  • Push for renewable energy
    • India is already at the point, where renewable energy component in the full mix is north of 33% (1/3rd)
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable ... olar_power
      In the electricity sector, renewable energy account for 34.6% of the total installed power capacity. Large hydro installed capacity was 45.399 GW as of 30 June 2019, contributing to 13% of the total power capacity.[1] The remaining renewable energy sources accounted for 22% of the total installed power capacity (80467 GW) as of 30 June 2019.[2]
    • Mega solar power plants are already operational in Rajasthan and MP
    • The Rewa plant in MP is currently supplying clean solar power to the Delhi metro
    • The Delhi metro is on track to become 100% solar powered in a couple of years
    • 100% solar means - not just the lighting/ AC/ etc. but even the trains themselves are fully solar powered
    • Then there is wind/ hydroelectric
    • India is already at the point, where the addition in renewable energy capacity exceeds the addition in coal-based energy capacity

Exciting times overall, I will be posting snippets from my research in these topics, invite others to do the same.
Last edited by sudarshan on 23 Aug 2019 06:46, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 22 Aug 2019 08:21

Several Indian states have legislated bans on single-use plastics, especially the <50 micron thickness plastic bags and covers. Maharashtra has made some progress in enforcing the legislation. In TN (from what I read online, don't know how far it is true), people already seem to be moving towards packaging materials from earlier times, like leaf-based packaging, other bio-based packaging, etc.

India proposed a world-wide ban on these single-use plastics at the UN. The proposal was shot down by the good-ol' USA. The USA has a large manufacturing capability, and more capability is coming on-stream. Commentators are pointing out that the leadership role is slipping away from Massa towards other emerging powers.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sumsumne » 22 Aug 2019 10:13

Big strides have been made in setting up Ultra Mega Solar Parks...Pavagada Solar Park in Karnataka continues to be the largest in India.The capacity is still being expanded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavagada_Solar_Park.

Imagine feeding this solar energy to Bangalore's Metro Trains and Public Bus networks...Less oil, less pollution, less foreign exchange outflow, less dust, less noise.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Primus » 22 Aug 2019 17:14

Cross posting from the Politics thread as advised:

hgupta wrote:
Take a look at this webpage for a map of all EV charging stations in the US: https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electrici ... ?fuel=ELEC

As you can see in the map, it is pretty much all over the nation.

A look at the Electrek.co website: https://electrek.co/2019/07/09/us-elect ... onnectors/ shows that US has well over 20k public charging stations with over 68,000 connectors. Contrast this number to the number of petrol gas stations in the US which is 168k (taken from this website: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/quizzes ... iz16.shtml). The graph in the link shows that the number of petrol gas stations is declining. Indeed, the winds of change are upon us.


I agree, there are several disruptive technologies at work. Tony Seba explains in this video from last year.

As a Tesla owner myself, I can tell you I am never going back, have had one for over 6 yrs now and I simply love it. I charge at home and rarely on the road when needed. However, in the future it is likely that we will be in auto-drive cars and that too in ride-share situations. Batteries are the way to go and not just for cars. Solar power is another big area that India could score well in.

Totally OT for this thread though, sorry.


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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Primus » 22 Aug 2019 19:51

Cochin, the first airport in the world to be 100% solar is expanding it's capacity. It's amazing what you can do if you have the vision and are allowed to. India, with is vast coastline and near-tropical sunlight availability all year around can produce a ton of power. I don't know if India manufactures solar panels or has to import them, local manufacture is critical IMHO and high-efficiency panels are the key.

Sadly, in the US, despite the need, local power authorities are in bed with the lobbyists and actively discourage solar panels for homes. We had to go through a whole lot of paperwork and even then the local town rules prohibit putting up panels which are visible from the street. Then the local electric supplier has got the county to disallow generating extra power. Meaning you can only generate enough power for your own needs, which are measured by your consumption in the previous year. So you cannot put up any extra panels and you cannot return to the grid or store extra energy in your own home in Tesla type batteries.

However, other states do allow selling back to the grid.

I can visualize a scenario in India where in parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, UP, MP, where it is relatively arid, farmers would set up 'solar farms' and sell power to the grid or even the local residents, changing the meaning of 'farming' completely. The key to this of course would be the easy and cheap availability of high-efficiency panels.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby hgupta » 22 Aug 2019 23:21

Primus wrote:Cross posting from the Politics thread as advised:

hgupta wrote: Indeed, the winds of change are upon us.


I agree, there are several disruptive technologies at work. Tony Seba explains in this video from last year.

As a Tesla owner myself, I can tell you I am never going back, have had one for over 6 yrs now and I simply love it. I charge at home and rarely on the road when needed. However, in the future it is likely that we will be in auto-drive cars and that too in ride-share situations. Batteries are the way to go and not just for cars. Solar power is another big area that India could score well in.

Totally OT for this thread though, sorry.



I just got my house powered by solar and net metering. 19.6kw system. Expensive ($57k total including finance charges) but well worth it. I got very good financing terms. 4.741% interest rate non-secured for 20 years. Only catch - I had to pay extra $6k (Could have been $50k) but in the end, still worth it. My solar system is working so great that I am saving at least $1k a year from paying utility bills even after servicing the loan monthly and my utility provider is planning to increase rates next year. That means I would just pay half of the cost of this system with savings alone by the 20 year mark. Before solar I was paying $350/mo to utility but with solar and fixed monthly payment of $250/mo, I save about $1.2k a year.

Next move should be solar inverted AC systems and heat pumps. That would help a large segment of Indian population in getting their AC needs meet while lessening the burden on the national grid and increase more efficiency. I am not getting it now because a couple years ago, I replaced the AC unit with a new AC unit with SEER rating of 16. So right now makes no sense to replace it so soon, but I do plan on replacing it with solar inverted AC when the current AC craps out.

As for energy storage, we need to build more gigafactories and terafactories to meet the demand although I am not sold on the idea of lithium based battery. I feel that lithium battery is a dead-end for long term battery/energy storage. We need to find a better material that offers better energy density. Please check my posts in the other thread in the Power Sector thread for the reasons I outlined.

I would love to get a Tesla but as of right now, the leasing terms make no sense. I am waiting next year for better leasing terms.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Primus » 23 Aug 2019 01:46

HG, I am assuming you are based in the US.

We had been thinking of installing solar in our home for many years but the cost then was prohibitive and given the meagre savings would not have broken even for over 20 yrs.Then a few years ago a local solar company offered us a sweet deal (pretty standard in our area). They would bear all costs of installation, including filing for permits, would do all the paperwork and running around. All we had to do was sign a contract for a fixed rate for the energy for the next 20 yrs. We worked the math and it was definitely worth it, we also got about $5K back in tax savings. Only problem was that due to the local laws we could only instal the panels on the back of the house so it is not enough to generate our total needs, about 60% only. So we still have regular power coming in and in the summer the AC uses up so much that we end up paying quite a bit.

Still, I am happy because solar is ultimately good for the planet and we do end up saving some money too.

There is such a strong lobby for conventional energy sources in the US that solar has not really taken off. Electric cars are becoming more popular of course and that I believe is an unstoppable force.

My original Tesla was bought outright as there was no lease program then. My second one too was paid for, but after six months I had to return it because it developed an electronic fault that could not be fixed. It was the model X. They were very nice and simply gave me a brand new car again for no extra charge - so I ended up essentially with six months of use for free. Went back to a Model S again as I thought the X was too big for me. I am generally the only one in the car, SHQ has a minivan that we use for everything else.

What is needed for the Indian market is a Maruti 800 version of an electric car that is cheap to manufacture and cheaper than gasoline to run. It will be a revolution in the Indian auto Industry just like the original Maruti was. I am sure somebody is working on that already.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby disha » 23 Aug 2019 03:36

HG, you will get 30% tax deduction next year. So your 56k (add in any other cost, like even laying down the wire) will cost you some 40k. That is great savings.

I have 5.2KW, now the installer is out of business and I have to find a new one who can work the previous ones. Have some 60k miles on my EVs already.

---

Several concerns were raised in the first post and here are the summation solutions that can address India's needs:

1. For the Base power, India really needs to get on to Nuclear Power. That is the only clean power that can add substantial power generation capacity cheaply. Not Solar, Not Wind. They are good renewables, but cannot scale up to Nuclear power capacity.

2. India is rightly going with two-wheelers and three-wheelers replacement. As the market matures any battery tech will be drop in replacement. Two wheelers and three-wheelers do not require super high capacities and long distance. They are price sensitive and hence already matured battery technology which is also safer and not the latest and greatest and most efficient suffice.

Here safety and maturity is important. Not efficiency.

3. It is okay for heavy vehicle industry to adapt battery tech later. Particularly several battery techs are on horizon which is both cheaper and has more capacity and is more safer.

Here safety and efficiency is important.

Take a look at this scientific american article: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-do-you-put-a-plane-engine-in-a-car/ and https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

Interestingly, India should also look at more efficient ICE engines! This is for a different category of vehicles - like earth movers and fire engines etc. Check it out here a 50% more efficient ICE : http://achatespower.com/

India's DoE should open up an investment arm and start funding all the new technologies. Their first applications can be in space (except ICE of course), that is power ISRO's satellites and use space as a proving ground and then propagate to rest of the industry.

This is on battery tech. There is a case that needs to be made in the service sector.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby hgupta » 23 Aug 2019 04:40

Primus, yes I am based in the US. I was fortunate enough that I lived in a municipality that didn't have 3 feet minimum setbacks from the edge of the roof. They only required 1.5 - 2 ft setbacks and my house's layout is in a L shape ranch layout allowing for large areas of unbroken slopes. Therefore I had enough room to get 19.6kw worth of solar panels. In fact, I have enough room to go up to 30kw! :eek:

disha wrote:HG, you will get 30% tax deduction next year. So your 56k (add in any other cost, like even laying down the wire) will cost you some 40k. That is great savings.


Yes I am getting the 30% tax credit. This will be the last year to get 30%. Next year it will go down to 26% and then 15% and then disappear. I have been waiting for the price of the solar panels to come down and after observing the curve of declining costs of solar panels, I figure that this year was the best time to get solar installed and get the full tax credit. The monthly payments I quoted is based on the 30% credit being applied to the principal of the loan. You get a 18 month grace period to apply the tax credit to your loan and get it re-amortized. I have the option of applying the tax credit and keep payments at $250/mo pocketing the credit and pay $350/mo. In either case, I am still ahead. I just added a pool heater. Before, using a pool heater could be expensive because to fully use it would mean an extra $100-150/mo in electricity. Now it only costs me a couple dollars a month after i hooked it up to the solar system. When I get an EV, I plan to add more solar panels at my own costs so I can charge up my EV and be totally energy independent.

I have 5.2KW, now the installer is out of business and I have to find a new one who can work the previous ones. Have some 60k miles on my EVs already.

Sorry to hear about your troubles. Who is your installer? You should try energysage.com. That is how I found my installer. Energysage.com screens out the bad installers and keep the good ones. They do the homework and verification for solar installers and make sure that I get a good solar installer. You should try it out. If you do, please refer me. I get a $250 credit towards my payment! :lol:

disha wrote:Several concerns were raised in the first post and here are the summation solutions that can address India's needs:

1. For the Base power, India really needs to get on to Nuclear Power. That is the only clean power that can add substantial power generation capacity cheaply. Not Solar, Not Wind. They are good renewables, but cannot scale up to Nuclear power capacity.


I do agree on adding nuclear power as the baseload. However don't be too quick to dismiss solar or wind. Coupled with large scale efficient energy storage, they can also be viable models for baseload power but it is not for everywhere. Extra attention has to be paid attention to the amount of peak solar hours received a day and where you get consistent wind speed and the length of transmission lines etc just as nuclear power plants don't work everywhere. For instance, nuclear power plants need to be situated closed to good source of water supply such as rivers or lakes. Wind and solar power plants would work in areas where there is little water supply such as in the case of South Australia.

2. India is rightly going with two-wheelers and three-wheelers replacement. As the market matures any battery tech will be drop in replacement. Two wheelers and three-wheelers do not require super high capacities and long distance. They are price sensitive and hence already matured battery technology which is also safer and not the latest and greatest and most efficient suffice.


I agree. The two wheels and three wheelers would be a great start and India is already doing that. I think that is the area where India can make a big difference and get a head start. Lithium batteries would do well because those vehicles have no need to go long distances and therefore, the lithium's energy density would do the job adequately. They are pretty much daily use types of transportation.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby hgupta » 23 Aug 2019 04:59

Primus wrote:HG, I am assuming you are based in the US.

We had been thinking of installing solar in our home for many years but the cost then was prohibitive and given the meagre savings would not have broken even for over 20 yrs.Then a few years ago a local solar company offered us a sweet deal (pretty standard in our area). They would bear all costs of installation, including filing for permits, would do all the paperwork and running around. All we had to do was sign a contract for a fixed rate for the energy for the next 20 yrs. We worked the math and it was definitely worth it, we also got about $5K back in tax savings. Only problem was that due to the local laws we could only instal the panels on the back of the house so it is not enough to generate our total needs, about 60% only. So we still have regular power coming in and in the summer the AC uses up so much that we end up paying quite a bit.


You should look into solar powered inverted A/C and the costs of installing and running it. It will definitely help you lower the energy consumption by the house even by half and have some juice to meet some of the power requirements.

Still, I am happy because solar is ultimately good for the planet and we do end up saving some money too.
Yes I get quite a satisfaction out of powering my house with solar. It is a great feeling.

There is such a strong lobby for conventional energy sources in the US that solar has not really taken off. Electric cars are becoming more popular of course and that I believe is an unstoppable force.
The winds of change are indeed upon us and the corporations are feeling them very strongly that they are sitting up and taking notice. It is unstoppable and we have Elon Musk and the people behind SolarCity to thank because although he and SolarCity didn't invent the concept of EV and solar, they really popularized it and made people think it was viable and worth doing it and financially viable.

My original Tesla was bought outright as there was no lease program then. My second one too was paid for, but after six months I had to return it because it developed an electronic fault that could not be fixed. It was the model X. They were very nice and simply gave me a brand new car again for no extra charge - so I ended up essentially with six months of use for free. Went back to a Model S again as I thought the X was too big for me. I am generally the only one in the car, SHQ has a minivan that we use for everything else.

I am curious about the Model X. I didn't quite take to it because I felt that it was too small to call it a proper SUV. I always thought Model X as an oversized crossover or hatchback. And as for Model Y, no way that is a SUV. It can only be classified as a crossover. Do you think Model X is a proper SUV and can seat 7 people quite well? I am not a fan of minivans and my wife, being used to driving small cars, refuse to drive big cars. So it falls upon me to drive the bigger vehicle. Right now I have a Cadillac XT5 which I got very good leasing terms. I am hoping that the Cadillac XT6 which will come out next year will have a plug in option. Just have to see if it makes financially sense. If it can go 50-60 miles on a single charge, that is good enough for me because rarely I go on long trips. And when I go on long trips, I still prefer ICE vehicles just for reliability and peace of mind. A plug in hybrid would offer the best of both worlds. I would only transition to a 100% EV if it has more than 400 miles of range (actual not advertised) and can recharge up to 80% within 30 minutes.

What is needed for the Indian market is a Maruti 800 version of an electric car that is cheap to manufacture and cheaper than gasoline to run. It will be a revolution in the Indian auto Industry just like the original Maruti was. I am sure somebody is working on that already.


The Hyundai Kona electric came out for release and it costs 25 lakhs rupees. What is the average cost of a new car like Maruti 800 or Swift? 10 lakhs? If Maruti can come out with an electric car perhaps a plug in hybrid that can go 75-100 kilometers on a single charge, I think people would be very interested. Right now 100% EVs don't make no sense in India until India has firmly established a 100% reliable 24/7 electricity grid with no or very little blackouts. That is what keeps most enterprenuers and companies from installing charging stations. They have no idea when power will go out as it is not reliable and batteries are too expensive to install at charging stations.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby disha » 23 Aug 2019 05:18

HG'sir, you should look at Tesla then :-) It has several super charger station and you will not have any range anxiety and your charging times are fast.

And power is getting reliable in India. However the way I see it evolve will be battery swaps in the 2/3 wheeler segments. There will be charging stations, but most likely people will go with batter swaps. They may even have a spare at home that they will trickle charge and may even use it with an inverter when light goes out!

As for the nuclear power, I would put those thoughts in the nuclear power thread. India is a peninsular country and has access to lot of water. Even in Kutch!

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby nachiket » 23 Aug 2019 06:14

Mod-Note: The thread title says "Policy Changes in India". Do not discuss tax-credits and Teslas in the US here. Unless it is some specific policy encountered elsewhere that you feel can be helpful in India.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 23 Aug 2019 07:39

Good grief guys, y'all invited a mod note already :-??

J/K.

Jokes apart, this is one view that I found interesting:

https://theicct.org/blog/staff/zero-emi ... aching-for

This is in the context of Brazil. It seems Brazil has P-7 norms (roughly equivalent to Euro-5) and P-8 norms (roughly equivalent to Euro 6). For comparison, BS-V would be equivalent to Euro-5, and BS-VI to Euro-6.

One of the graphs in that site was interesting. I'll see if I can isolate and post it here. The graph showed that even with the most optimistic scenario for adoption of e-buses in Brazil (e-buses being zero tailpipe emissions), the reduction in pollution in the near term was still rather slow (since existing ICE vehicles and tapered sales of new ICE buses and vehicles still contribute a lot to pollution). But in a scenario when e-bus adoption was combined with aggressive implementation of P-7 (or even better - P-8 norms) there would be a much more drastic drop in pollution levels even in the near term.

So it seems India has got the strategy exactly right - go for e-vehicles, but at the same time, fast-track adoption of BS-VI norms. I have some data on current number of vehicles such as buses, lorries, 2-wheelers, etc. A little simulation in the Indian context seems possible - would be a crude simulation, but might still yield some insight. I'll try to get that going.
Last edited by sudarshan on 23 Aug 2019 07:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 23 Aug 2019 07:43

BS-VI norms make little difference for petrol vehicles, since petrol cars already have catalytic converters and are relatively clean. The big difference would be in diesel vehicles. Ultra-low-sulphur fuels for diesel vehicles combined with manufacturing changes and exhaust scrubbers would drastically cut diesel pollution. Delhi had started seeing some gains on the pollution front from CNG adoption in the early 2000's, but with the advent of diesel cars, all those gains were lost.

Sulphur clogs catalytic converters and in turn reduces the effectiveness of pollution reduction in terms of NOx and other pollutants as well. Ultra-low-sulphur thus has a great effect on all other forms of pollution which are addressed by catalytic converters.

I'm talking in general terms so far, based on memory, soon I'll start pulling links and references (out of proper sources, not out of you-know-where).

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby vipins » 23 Aug 2019 11:39

HPCL to set up battery swapping pilots to join EV race
Bracing for a future with less-polluting fuels, Indian oil refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp is planning a pilot program for swapping batteries of electric two- and three-wheelers at its outlets by December, according to people familiar with the matter.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby disha » 23 Aug 2019 21:52

Diesel is preferred by the transport/tourist industry and all heavy vehicles are generally diesel based hence getting to BS-VI gets the most bang for buck for NOX/SOX emissions overall.

It will take a good 2-3 decade before world switches over to EVs. There will be still industries where Diesel/Gasoline is required and cannot be done away holistically.

Hence energy source mix should be a multi-pronged approach. I believe that Pollution Control or EVs are actually outcomes of that approach and not inputs.

Calibrate inputs appropriately and you can have "pollution free" or "zero-emission" or even "negative-emission" internal combustion engines!

Thus the focus should be to get the energy source mix right. Also getting off imported oil in the energy source mix reduces dependence of the nation on external factors.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 24 Aug 2019 09:06

disha wrote:Calibrate inputs appropriately and you can have "pollution free" or "zero-emission" or even "negative-emission" internal combustion engines!


Could you elaborate on the bolded and coloured bit? I didn't get that.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Gyan » 24 Aug 2019 11:26

I think in India electric locomotives, electric metros & electric buses should be given priority rather than personal vehicles

Though as densely populated nation of relatively shorter distances, EV will be a massive success due to


Kitna Deti hai, factor

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby nash » 24 Aug 2019 13:21

The fuel consumption pattern in India, this is from 2014:

https://pib.gov.in/newsite/printrelease.aspx?relid=102799

70% of Diesel, 99.6 % of Petrol consumed by Transport Sector
M/s Nielsen submits All India Study Report to PPAC on sale of Diesel and Petrol
13.15% of Diesel Consumed by private cars and UVs, 8.94% by commercial cars & UVs and 6.39% by 3-wheelers; Trucks account for 28.25%, Buses 9.55% and Railways about 3.24%
Agriculture Sector uses 13% of Diesel; industry consumes 9.02% including industry gensets with 4.06% and Mobile Towers 1.54%
Two-wheelers top Petrol consumption with 61.42% followed by cars with 34.33% and 3-wheelers with 2.34%


The number of registered vehicles 2016:

http://www.knowindia.net/auto.html

Registered Motor Vehicles by Type as at 31 Mar 2016 (in millions)
Two-Wheelers Cars Jeeps and Taxis Buses Goods Vehicles Misc (incl. tractors and three-wheelers)
169 25.6 4.6 1.8 10.5 18.5


And if we look into Government effort towards Electric mobility, then we have:

Railway electrification.
Charging infrastructure on Nation Highway, charging station after every 25 KM of National Highway.
Giga Factories
Focus on Buses, two-three wheeler and CVs.

Other things they need to come up with proper scrapping policy and loan scheme to encourage EV buying by masses.
Also, they need to focus on electrification of agriculture equipment after proper electrification of Villages, it also make Farming more efficient.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby disha » 25 Aug 2019 00:32

If I were to draft an Energy source mix, here would be my inputs:

Base load

1. Nuclear Power (fission and fusion)
2. Tidal Power*
3. Thermal Power

Peakers

1. Gas fired station
2. Battery backups

Localized power sources

1. Hydro-electric
2. Bio-fuels and Bio-gas
3. Mini & micro hydro-turbines
4. Rooftop Solar

And a very efficient smart Grid to tie all of it up. The above are a must-have and basic necessity.

---
Where is wind? Well wind (and even solar panels) are actually pollutants. This is very nuanced discussion, however end-of-life considerations when applied and when the final cost benefit analysis is completed given those inputs, I think Nuclear Power is the only one that comes out on top.

Of course Fusion power is the holiest grail and I do think that by 2030 we will see Nuclear Fusion prototypes and by 2050 I do believe that commercial nuclear fusion will be viable.

I will not discuss rooftop solar. It is already commercialized and all it needs is appropriate point incentives to connect it to a smart grid. However smart grid is a basic necessity.

Tidal power is not exploited properly.
---

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby disha » 25 Aug 2019 01:05

sudarshan wrote:
disha wrote:Calibrate inputs appropriately and you can have "pollution free" or "zero-emission" or even "negative-emission" internal combustion engines!


Could you elaborate on the bolded and coloured bit? I didn't get that.


Emissions (or rather air pollutants including GHG) can be classified under the following:

1. Green-House Gas emissions like CO2, Methane. GHGs broadly comes from transportation, energy (thermal power stations) & agriculture (primarily meat producing industries)

2. NOX & SOX pollutants. This is primarily transportation, energy (thermal power stations) and other industrial activities

3. Ozone depleters like CFCs and other industrial solvents and evaporation of regular gasolines (leaky gas tanks in cars/autos/scooters) etc.

Now let us say we use 100% bio-diesel (somehow). That is run your entire transportation fleet and agricultural inputs (feed to cattle) on Karanjia or Pungai Oil (Oil from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pongamia_oil).

As a bio-diesel, the oil breaks down in atmosphere rather quickly and does not cause the issues associated with regular gasoline evaporation.

Sulphur content in bio-diesel (based on extraction process) is generally less than 15 ppm (https://biodieseleducation.org/Literature/Journal/2009_He_Sulfur_Content_in_Se.pdf), and for Karanjia oil it is 12 ppm that is almost meeting Bharat-VI guidelines (10 ppm).

However the net sulphur cycle here is zero. What it consumes as a tree is reintroduced into the atmosphere somewhere else. No new sulphur emission is introduced.

NOX emissions is through burning processes and with efficient ICE engines, the NOX can be significantly reduced and with appropriate converters can as well be eliminated. NOX emission is a function of combustion.

This leads to the larger part of the GHG. The core and the most important.

The tree sequesters carbon in its trunks, branches and roots. At the economical end of the tree (when it does not produce enough oil nuts) the trunk and branches can be reused for industrial activity (furniture, building materials) etc. Oil cakes (post extraction), leaves and other residue can be used as a fertilizer or animal feed.

The net result is that the tree consumes in more carbon then produced by consumption of its oil. This is negative emission.

The consumption of oil by ICE here is more of converting potential energy in the oil to useable kinetic energy. Viewed from the consumption end, the ICE if using only 100% bio-diesel is construed as zero-to-negative emission of GHG.

I am citing bio-diesel (in this case a single source) as one process for negative emissions. This is doable. For every household if it is mandated that the city needs to have at least one Pongama tree (ICRISAT can do research on identifying and propagating efficient strains) an entire industry can be created on bio-diesel.

Brazil is doing sugarcane-produced-ethanol blended gasoline. Ethanol is another way* (*not sure if humans will use it for intended use or unintended use!). However sugarcane-produced-ethanol is net zero emission.

Similarly nuclear power can be used for negative emissions. I am collecting some information and hope to post the process through which nuclear power can come into negative emission. For that, the energy usage has to be converted to electricity.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 25 Aug 2019 21:44

disha wrote:
sudarshan wrote:
Could you elaborate on the bolded and coloured bit? I didn't get that.


Emissions (or rather air pollutants including GHG) can be classified under the following:

1. Green-House Gas emissions like CO2, Methane. GHGs broadly comes from transportation, energy (thermal power stations) & agriculture (primarily meat producing industries)

2. NOX & SOX pollutants. This is primarily transportation, energy (thermal power stations) and other industrial activities

3. Ozone depleters like CFCs and other industrial solvents and evaporation of regular gasolines (leaky gas tanks in cars/autos/scooters) etc.

Now let us say we use 100% bio-diesel (somehow). That is run your entire transportation fleet and agricultural inputs (feed to cattle) on Karanjia or Pungai Oil (Oil from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pongamia_oil).

As a bio-diesel, the oil breaks down in atmosphere rather quickly and does not cause the issues associated with regular gasoline evaporation.

Sulphur content in bio-diesel (based on extraction process) is generally less than 15 ppm (https://biodieseleducation.org/Literature/Journal/2009_He_Sulfur_Content_in_Se.pdf), and for Karanjia oil it is 12 ppm that is almost meeting Bharat-VI guidelines (10 ppm).

However the net sulphur cycle here is zero. What it consumes as a tree is reintroduced into the atmosphere somewhere else. No new sulphur emission is introduced.

NOX emissions is through burning processes and with efficient ICE engines, the NOX can be significantly reduced and with appropriate converters can as well be eliminated. NOX emission is a function of combustion.

This leads to the larger part of the GHG. The core and the most important.

The tree sequesters carbon in its trunks, branches and roots. At the economical end of the tree (when it does not produce enough oil nuts) the trunk and branches can be reused for industrial activity (furniture, building materials) etc. Oil cakes (post extraction), leaves and other residue can be used as a fertilizer or animal feed.

The net result is that the tree consumes in more carbon then produced by consumption of its oil. This is negative emission.

The consumption of oil by ICE here is more of converting potential energy in the oil to useable kinetic energy. Viewed from the consumption end, the ICE if using only 100% bio-diesel is construed as zero-to-negative emission of GHG.

I am citing bio-diesel (in this case a single source) as one process for negative emissions. This is doable. For every household if it is mandated that the city needs to have at least one Pongama tree (ICRISAT can do research on identifying and propagating efficient strains) an entire industry can be created on bio-diesel.

Brazil is doing sugarcane-produced-ethanol blended gasoline. Ethanol is another way* (*not sure if humans will use it for intended use or unintended use!). However sugarcane-produced-ethanol is net zero emission.

Similarly nuclear power can be used for negative emissions. I am collecting some information and hope to post the process through which nuclear power can come into negative emission. For that, the energy usage has to be converted to electricity.


Not sure I got all that, will respond piecemeal as I read and digest.

But for now - I kind of get what you mean about "net negative emissions." What is the feasibility of bio-diesel? Isn't it corrosive, and damaging to metal engines?

Net negative emissions is a worthy goal, but if all the pollution is generated in city roads and then absorbed elsewhere, people are still going to be breathing in that stuff. I get what you say about ultra-low-sulphur and scrubbing the NOx (yes, NOx depends on combustion completion and peak temperatures). Then there is also CO and particulate matter. Still reading your post and trying to work all this out, you might have answered this already in the post.

CO (not CO2 - i.e., monoxide, not dioxide) is generated by incomplete combustion, and is reduced as combustion proceeds to completion (the problem here is that there is very little time for combustion in an ICE running at say 2000 RPM). OTOH, NOx increases as combustion goes to completion, so in typical ICEs, NOx is very far away from its equilibrium concentration (which is a very good thing), but even so, the NOx generated is pretty toxic. So there is a trade-off between CO and NOx, just from the combustion point of view. Catalytic converters change that dynamic by scrubbing the exhaust. But sulphur eventually clogs up any catalytic converter, hence the focus on ultra-low-sulphur. Has all this been studied to any extent with bio fuels?

Are pongama trees native all over India, and if not, is there a problem with introducing non-native species in other parts of the country?

The other issue is with particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10, etc.). Here the issue isn't just with the tailpipe exhaust. Particulates also consist of asbestos, rubber, metal and silica dust. Basically whenever you slam on the brakes, there is abrasion of the brake liner, and also the grinding of tires on the road, which kicks up rubber, silica and metal dust also. With electric vehicles, there is the option of regenerative braking, so at least the brake liner wear is reduced or eliminated (one less source of asbestos particulate). There's still going to be rubber, metal, and silica though. PM2.5 is implicated in a lot of issues like respiratory issues, stroke, cardiac disease and deaths. Cities like Delhi and Mumbai are in the danger or hazard zones with PM2.5, but the good news here is that other cities around the world have been successful in bringing this down to mandated levels, even with ICEs, so with EVs it should be even better (because of regenerative braking, and also because there is no tailpipe component of PMxxx).

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Rishirishi » 26 Aug 2019 03:35

Latest EV Chargers can charge 100Km in just 3 min.

A range of 200 KM would require a battery of 40Kwh (battery cost would be 6000 USD but subtract 2000 dollars worth of components in a regular combustion engine. 4000 USD is RS 2,8 lacks extra. Typical km cost for an ev is RS 2 per Km. Petrol would probably be somewhere around 4-5 for a fuel efficient car. Can India shift away from Oil to battery ?




https://auto.howstuffworks.com/fuel-efficiency/vehicles/electric-car-charging-goes-super-fast.htm

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby pandyan » 26 Aug 2019 16:57

Looks like Li-ion batteries are designed for slow charge and rapid charging is okay for once-in-a-while. Per taxi drivers, if you do rapid charging every single time, it will seriously affect the life of the battery

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Suraj » 26 Aug 2019 23:27

pandyan wrote:Looks like Li-ion batteries are designed for slow charge and rapid charging is okay for once-in-a-while. Per taxi drivers, if you do rapid charging every single time, it will seriously affect the life of the battery

This depends on several other factors, including battery chemistry and the coolant system's ability to dissipate heat during fast charging.
Tesla battery degradation at less than 10% after over 160,000 miles, according to latest data
The data clearly shows that for the first 50,000 miles (100,000 km), most Tesla battery packs will lose about 5% of their capacity, but after the 50,000-mile mark, the capacity levels off and it looks like it could be difficult to make a pack degrade by another 5%.

The trend line currently suggests that the average battery pack could cycle through over 300,000 km (186,000) before coming close to 90% capacity.

The first generation Nissan Leafs and Priuses had issues with high battery degradation from what I remember, but they've since managed to get around that problem. Tesla's done a lot of work on studying battery degradation, and they have use cases of very long battery life despite essentially only fast charging:
Tesloop's Model S surpasses 400,000 miles
Tesloop was a company that ran luxury limousine services in southern California. Their business model was to park and charge the cars at superchargers at night, between long distance taxi services between major cities by day. They accumulated enormous mileage in a short time, while dependent solely on fast charging, but maintained high battery charge levels .

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Vips » 27 Aug 2019 21:11

KEL in talks with Toshiba for making lithium ion batteries.

Kerala Electrical & Allied Engineering Co. Limited (KEL) is in discussion with Toshiba to manufacture fast charging lithium ion (li-ion)batteries for electrical vehicles. The Toshiba team from Japan visited the Mamala unit of KEL on Tuesday.

“We are keen to collaborate with Toshiba to assemble li-ion batteries of different capacities for various types of electric vehicles, boats, etc. We have shown our facility to team and have also shown the vacant land available at the unit which is suitable for establishing electric battery assembling unit to the delegation.” said Shaji Varghese, MD of KEL

“Toshiba officials explained the specialities of their battery technology and pointed out that their batteries can be charged within 10 minutes, compared to 4 to 5 hours taken by conventional li-ion batteries. On conclusion of the discussions, both the teams expressed hope in joining hands for establishing a battery assembling Unit at KEL. Discussions on further course of actions and business model to be adopted will follow at the government level.” he added.

The five-member team from Toshiba headed by Yoshiki Ishizuka, head of battery division and Tomohiko Okada, MD, Toshiba India Pvt. Ltd., had detailed discussion with KEL team headed by chairman Varkala B Ravikumar and Shaji Varghese on various possibilities of business association between the two companies.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Cain Marko » 28 Aug 2019 22:29

When it comes to solar power, I feel that individual homes could bring more benefit than mega plants, these have their own environmental concerns. See here

https://youtu.be/N-yALPEpV4w

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Vips » 29 Aug 2019 03:49

Indian Oil to build a 1 GW electric vehicle battery plant.

State-run oil refiner Indian Oil Corporation Ltd will set up a 1 Giga Watt (GW) plant to make batteries used for running electric vehicles (EVs) in partnership with an overseas start-up using a non-lithium ion raw material that is locally available, Chairman Sanjiv Singh said on Wednesday.

The move fits well with the government’s strategy to facilitate the adoption of EVs in the country’s energy basket, and cut the fuel import bill. It also supports a key element of the EVs industry — batteries and their recharge.

“If we look at EVs today, we know that it is more efficient, less complex, very advanced and more economical, if you are looking at the car alone. If you club it with batteries and electricity, from where electricity is coming, how you will replace batteries — because battery has a very limited life, how you recycle batteries, then probably, if you also look at the impact on environment, there is a puzzle which is yet to be solved,” Singh said.

“The lithium-ion battery we see today is not the only answer, or is the best answer. For a country like India, we don’t have a single grain of lithium. So, if you are looking at EVs in a very big way, we have to look for something which is indigenously available. We have already tied-up with one company. We are working on a solution which can be manufactured 100 per cent indigenously,” Singh said without elaborating.

According to Indian Oil’s director for Research and Development Dr SS V Ram Kumar, the planned battery plant will use “chemistries which are India-centric, whose raw material is easily available in this country, whose recycling technology is extremely mature, and whose recycling industry is well established in this country.” He said that it will use “transition group of elements”.

“Those elements are known since ages, the natural resources of that particular element in this country is abundantly available, unlike in the case of lithium. For lithium, you have to be depending on imports, and that too from China, because all lithium reserves today are under the possession of China,” Ram Kumar said.

Th battery plant will be set up through a special purpose vehicle (SPV) formed by IOC and the overseas entity. “We may rope in another interested player, it could be anybody who brings in some expertise and synergies to this venture,” he said.

The location of the plant is yet to be decided, he said. “It will be located at a place where land is available at a reasonable price, and all the statutory clearances are available quickly,” he noted.

“It will be a manufacturing facility of battery to the scale, meaning minimum 1 GW. It’s a GW scale facility to be built in phases beginning with 25 MW or 50 MW and ramped up. It is be commensurate with the demand that is going to pick up in the country for e-vehicles and e-mobility. We have signed the agreement with the overseas start-up entity and is waiting for government clearance which is around the corner,” he added.

Sanjiv Singh said that Indian Oil is venturing into energy storage and the batteries business was a “new and profitable business avenue for the company”. “We have a strategic intent to scale-up presence in e-mobility by equipping customer touch points with turbo-charging and battery swapping facilities for EVs and plug-in hybrids,” he said.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby hanumadu » 29 Aug 2019 04:55

^^This is absolutely out of the blue and I am very skeptical of such a technology existing or commercially viable. Hoping against hope.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 29 Aug 2019 05:35



What exactly is a "1 GW battery plant"? Is there some DDMitis somewhere here? Do they mean that they will produce enough batteries every second, to store 1 GJ of energy? Or is the plant going to consume 1 GW of power to make the batteries? Not making sense, somebody please enlighten me.

Edit: Actually, the more I read that report, the worse it sounds. Transition elements? Abundant in India? Alternative to lithium? The whole report is vague and smacks of that elusive pie in the sky.

What am I missing?

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby a_bharat » 29 Aug 2019 07:24

sudarshan wrote:What exactly is a "1 GW battery plant"? Is there some DDMitis somewhere here? Do they mean that they will produce enough batteries every second, to store 1 GJ of energy? Or is the plant going to consume 1 GW of power to make the batteries? Not making sense, somebody please enlighten me.

Edit: Actually, the more I read that report, the worse it sounds. Transition elements? Abundant in India? Alternative to lithium? The whole report is vague and smacks of that elusive pie in the sky.

What am I missing?


You know they meant 1 gwh (gigawatt hour). That would be about 25,000 batteries per year capacity (40 kwh battery for a range of about 250 kms -- Nissan Leaf). The alternative chemistry to Li-ion they are talking about is probably Aluminum-Air which is several times more energy dense compared to Li-ion. These batteries can't be electrically recharged. They need to be mechanically recharged by replacing Aluminum anode. So, battery swapping would be the way to go.

Last year Ashok Leyland signed a letter of intent with an Israeli company Phinergy to explore this technology for EV batteries.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 29 Aug 2019 07:53

a_bharat wrote:You know they meant 1 gwh (gigawatt hour). That would be about 25,000 batteries per year capacity (40 kwh battery for a range of about 250 kms -- Nissan Leaf). The alternative chemistry to Li-ion they are talking about is probably Aluminum-Air which is several times more energy dense compared to Li-ion. These batteries can't be electrically recharged. They need to be mechanically recharged by replacing Aluminum anode. So, battery swapping would be the way to go.

Last year Ashok Leyland signed a letter of intent with an Israeli company Phinergy to explore this technology for EV batteries.


Ah ok, so it's 1 GWH/year. Thanks for clarifying, I honestly didn't make that connection. But in that case, I was right about DDMitis.

I did initially think of aluminium-air, but dismissed that idea because the report specifically said "transition elements" and aluminium is not a transition metal. But now that I think of it - maybe it's iron-air (iron is a transition metal). This would be along the lines of what hgupta posted in the power sector thread.

You're right, aluminium-air batteries would likely be primary (single-use or non-rechargeable) batteries, but I don't think iron-air batteries are single-use. They can be recharged. But when I last read about this (about a month ago, after seeing hgupta's post in the other thread), it seemed the technology wasn't so mature yet. Maybe some breakthrough happened, hope it doesn't go the way of Tata's compressed-air car. Lots of hope and promise, but in the end, they couldn't overcome the problem of ultra-low temperatures generated in the turbine.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Mort Walker » 29 Aug 2019 08:14

I don't think time and effort should be wasted on conventional battery chemistries. The energy-to-weight ratio simply isn't there. It would be better to focus on plug-in hybrids and fuel cell technologies. ISRO could be the lead for fuel cell technologies, they've proven their worth in many areas and this would have dual purpose.

The BS-6 implementation is too fast, it will create mass unemployment in the auto sector of over 1 million people in the next couple of years. It's implementation by 01 April 2020 should be deferred by at least another 2 years and transition to BS-5 first.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 29 Aug 2019 08:29

Mort Walker wrote:I don't think time and effort should be wasted on conventional battery chemistries. The energy-to-weight ratio simply isn't there. It would be better to focus on plug-in hybrids and fuel cell technologies. ISRO could be the lead for fuel cell technologies, they've proven their worth in many areas and this would have dual purpose.

The BS-6 implementation is too fast, it will create mass unemployment in the auto sector of over 1 million people in the next couple of years. It's implementation by 01 April 2020 should be deferred by at least another 2 years and transition to BS-5 first.


Well, from what I've read, aluminium-air batteries have energy densities which actually exceed that of petrol/ gasoline (on a volumetric basis). And iron-air doesn't seem to be too far behind. I haven't managed to figure out exactly what prevents the adoption of fuel cells in automobile transport, they seem to have niche applications, but the general auto sector seems out of their reach for the foreseeable future for some reason (what exactly is the hang-up - anybody know?).

Delhi is already in the hazard zone on PM 2.5 and other pollutants like SO2, NOx, volatile HCs. Part of the problem is stubble burning, but a large part is vehicular. Other cities in the sub-Himalayan belt are in the same ballpark, or worse (Kanpur, Lucknow). Southern cities have the advantage of wind and sea-breeze (Delhi and the sub-Himalayan belt in general, in the winter, has no wind, which makes the problem far worse), but southern cities are catching up as well. I don't know the basis of the claim of 1 million unemployed in the auto sector, but the pollution levels are in the emergency stage already. The Modi govt. seems to have made a deliberate decision to skip BS-V and go directly to BS-VI, four years ahead of schedule. I think the gains in terms of reduction in allergies, lung disease, strokes, cardiac disease, cancers, and premature deaths, are well worth it. Then there's the psychological benefit of cleaner air in general, not to mention the effects on plants and animals, overall pollution reduction in the entire country. Delhi has had schools shut down once already just because of PM 2.5 pollution. It's a question of priorities I guess - jobs vs. pollution.

In any case, I don't think the decision on BS-VI by April 2020 is reversible. India is already committed to it, and manufacturers seem well on the way to adapting to it. The EV policy was an additional shock on the manufacturers on top of BS-VI, but they seem to be adapting to that as well. Don't know how many jobs that is going to cost.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Mort Walker » 29 Aug 2019 09:05

sudarshan wrote:Well, from what I've read, aluminium-air batteries have energy densities which actually exceed that of petrol/ gasoline (on a volumetric basis). And iron-air doesn't seem to be too far behind. I haven't managed to figure out exactly what prevents the adoption of fuel cells in automobile transport, they seem to have niche applications, but the general auto sector seems out of their reach for the foreseeable future for some reason (what exactly is the hang-up - anybody know?).

Delhi is already in the hazard zone on PM 2.5 and other pollutants like SO2, NOx, volatile HCs. Part of the problem is stubble burning, but a large part is vehicular. Other cities in the sub-Himalayan belt are in the same ballpark, or worse (Kanpur, Lucknow). Southern cities have the advantage of wind and sea-breeze (Delhi and the sub-Himalayan belt in general, in the winter, has no wind, which makes the problem far worse), but southern cities are catching up as well. I don't know the basis of the claim of 1 million unemployed in the auto sector, but the pollution levels are in the emergency stage already. The Modi govt. seems to have made a deliberate decision to skip BS-V and go directly to BS-VI, four years ahead of schedule. I think the gains in terms of reduction in allergies, lung disease, strokes, cardiac disease, cancers, and premature deaths, are well worth it. Then there's the psychological benefit of cleaner air in general, not to mention the effects on plants and animals, overall pollution reduction in the entire country. Delhi has had schools shut down once already just because of PM 2.5 pollution. It's a question of priorities I guess - jobs vs. pollution.

In any case, I don't think the decision on BS-VI by April 2020 is reversible. India is already committed to it, and manufacturers seem well on the way to adapting to it. The EV policy was an additional shock on the manufacturers on top of BS-VI, but they seem to be adapting to that as well. Don't know how many jobs that is going to cost.


No, conventional battery chemistries aren't there yet. 1Kg of petrol is about 10 KWhr. Aluminum-air is at best 1/3 of that. Fuel cells are expensive, but Toyota, Honda and BMW are producing, or getting ready to, produce hydrogen fuel cell vehicles which have by-product of water. The current debate about EVs is interesting. Over 110 years ago the external combustion engine was all the rage, until the internal combustion engine (ICE) was developed for transportation as it had a better energy-to-weight ratio, but was thermodynamically less efficient. Today, we're again at the turning point, EVs with batteries are all the rage, but fuel-cells are 10-20 years down the road to provide a big increase in energy-to-weight ratio to match or exceed that of diesel. Rather than invest in battery production factories, fuel cell technology needs to be moved along. India is at the right place in history to do that. ISRO can do the research work and develop them on satellites, it will be game changer and India will be a world leader.

NCR and the other metros are of course a big concern, but that doesn't mean you don't implement BS-6, just push it a couple of years forward with the implementation of BS-5 before hand. To mitigate pollution, make public transport very cheap or free in the big metros for a couple years in run-up to BS-6. IMHO, that would be considerably cheaper than creating mass unemployment of skilled workers in the auto sector. These industries have many ancillary industries too and India would lose manufacturing capability on top of this. Take a look at the OEM auto part industry. It's big and they've already felt the pinch. Expect mass lay offs and shutdowns of the car factories, auto parts factories and tooling factories in the next 6-12 months.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 29 Aug 2019 18:16

Mort Walker wrote:No, conventional battery chemistries aren't there yet. 1Kg of petrol is about 10 KWhr. Aluminum-air is at best 1/3 of that.


We're both saying the same thing here. I said on a "volumetric basis," aluminium-air was slightly ahead of petrol. Petrol is around 0.75 g/cc, aluminium is about 2.7 g/cc (>3.5 times denser). So volumetrically (don't know if there really is such a word), aluminium-air would be about 15% better in terms of energy density. On a vehicle, the amount of space occupied is the same for the same range. Weight-wise - if the vehicle carries 60L of petrol (45 kg), it would have to carry about 3 times the battery weight instead. So on a 2 ton vehicle, the weight of the energy supply goes from being 3 to 4% of the vehicle weight (including the weight of the fuel tank for petrol) to being like 6 to 7% for the same range.

Fuel cells are expensive, but Toyota, Honda and BMW are producing, or getting ready to, produce hydrogen fuel cell vehicles which have by-product of water. The current debate about EVs is interesting. Over 110 years ago the external combustion engine was all the rage, until the internal combustion engine (ICE) was developed for transportation as it had a better energy-to-weight ratio, but was thermodynamically less efficient. Today, we're again at the turning point, EVs with batteries are all the rage, but fuel-cells are 10-20 years down the road to provide a big increase in energy-to-weight ratio to match or exceed that of diesel. Rather than invest in battery production factories, fuel cell technology needs to be moved along. India is at the right place in history to do that. ISRO can do the research work and develop them on satellites, it will be game changer and India will be a world leader.


See that's the thing with research, there's no guarantee that it will pan out. In the meantime we need a solution. Research on fuel cells goes on in parallel, but nobody knows if or when it will be fruitful. As a thought experiment - what if ISRO spends all that effort and money on fuel cell research, and then, just when India is on the point of converting to fuel cells, there is a breakthrough in nuclear fusion? Then we have this same debate again - should India go with current fuel cell technology, or focus on perfecting fusion, which after all, will be even better - so put it off a bit more till we get fusion right.

NCR and the other metros are of course a big concern, but that doesn't mean you don't implement BS-6, just push it a couple of years forward with the implementation of BS-5 before hand. To mitigate pollution, make public transport very cheap or free in the big metros for a couple years in run-up to BS-6. IMHO, that would be considerably cheaper than creating mass unemployment of skilled workers in the auto sector. These industries have many ancillary industries too and India would lose manufacturing capability on top of this. Take a look at the OEM auto part industry. It's big and they've already felt the pinch. Expect mass lay offs and shutdowns of the car factories, auto parts factories and tooling factories in the next 6-12 months.


I looked this up. Seems that the auto ancillaries industry could be staring at job losses of 10 lakhs (1 million). But this seems to be due to a combination of factors - general demand slump, lack of clarity on long term EV policy, and also BS-VI. With BS-VI, it seems the issue is more that consumers are putting off auto purchases to buy BS-VI when it comes in, rather than invest in a BS-IV vehicle right now and have to upgrade it later to BS-VI. So if that were the case, then when BS-VI comes in April, demand should perk up again. The industry wants the government to boost demand by bringing in 18% GST, clarifying EV policy, and even better road networks. Shelving BS-VI doesn't seem to be an industry demand even. So I think it's simplistic to claim that the expected 1 million job losses are entirely due to BS-VI, and postponing BS-VI will mitigate that.

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 121_1.html

At present, the automobile industry has been impacted the hardest by a consumption slowdown which is a culmination of several factors like high GST rates, farm distress, stagnant wages and liquidity constraints.

Besides, inventory pile-up at the dealership level and stock management of unsold BS-IV vehicles have become a problem for the sector.

Accordingly, the industry's production levels have also receded as demand plunged, eventually leading to job losses.


https://www.rediff.com/business/report/ ... 190724.htm

Subdued demand, recent investments made for transition from BS IV to BS VI emission norms, lack of clarity on electric vehicle (EV) policy has left the industry unsure of its future and has caused it to stop all future investments, he added.

"The industry needs urgent government intervention... We strongly recommend that the government bring 18 per cent GST rate across the entire auto and auto component sector," he added.

Under the GST regime, already around 70 per cent of auto components have come under the 18 per cent GST slab.

However, around 30 per cent remain in the 28 per cent bracket.


Waiting a few years for BS-VI might, on the face of it, not seem like a big deal, but it locks in a lot of pollution for years to come. Every year counts. A million pollution-related deaths, or bread-winners coming down with debilitating diseases, would be just as disruptive as a million job losses.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby Mort Walker » 29 Aug 2019 19:40

Sudharshan,

A vehicle's energy is expended moving weight not volume, so energy-to-weight ratio is important here. An EV's DC motors will have to produce more torque for a larger load. In this discussion we need to talk in the same units or it becomes a specmanship salesman game to sell electric, gasoline, or diesel fuel vehicles.

Fuel cell vehicles by Toyota such as Mirai are already there and the BMW 7 hydrogen car comes out next year. IMHO, it would be better to have fuel cells to crack methane, propane or CNG to extract the energy needed. It is not far off. ISRO can do some experiments with its satellites and not spend much money, but the return would be tremendous. It is a misnomer to compare this with fusion. Fusion power is for power production and not for surface transportation.

IMHO, BS-6 fast tracking will setback auto part tooling. The loss of this capability hurts tremendously in the long run for developing country like India. You may also see setbacks in defence vehicle production too as parts will have to be made overseas. I seriously doubt going to BS-5 in the interim will result in the pre-mature deaths of a million people.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby pandyan » 31 Aug 2019 23:02

Suraj wrote:
The data clearly shows that for the first 50,000 miles (100,000 km), most Tesla battery packs will lose about 5% of their capacity, but after the 50,000-mile mark, the capacity levels off and it looks like it could be difficult to make a pack degrade by another 5%.

The trend line currently suggests that the average battery pack could cycle through over 300,000 km (186,000) before coming close to 90% capacity.

The first generation Nissan Leafs and Priuses had issues with high battery degradation from what I remember, but they've since managed to get around that problem. Tesla's done a lot of work on studying battery degradation, and they have use cases of very long battery life despite essentially only fast charging:
Tesloop's Model S surpasses 400,000 miles
Tesloop was a company that ran luxury limousine services in southern California. Their business model was to park and charge the cars at superchargers at night, between long distance taxi services between major cities by day. They accumulated enormous mileage in a short time, while dependent solely on fast charging, but maintained high battery charge levels .


very impressive! Tesla has indeed spent a lot of resources on battery management and active cooling tech. Leafs' used to be notorious for failing batteries especially in hot weather conditions.

https://pushevs.com/2018/04/27/battery- ... s-partial/
[changed 1000s from . to ,]
Another interesting aspect is full charge (100%) vs partial charging (80%). Partial charging extends battery life by around 3 times according to this report.
As you can see it’s better to cycle battery cells at lower SOC. For example, if you decide to constantly fully charge a battery cell (100 %) and discharge it till 20 % you can expect 1,000 cycles until reaching the EOL. However, if you charge it till 80 % and discharge it fully (till 0 %), you can expect to triple the cycles (3,000) before reaching the EOL. In both cases you’re only using 80 % of the total battery cell capacity.

Electric cars already have BMS (Battery Management Systems) that prevent batteries from being fully charged or discharged, however BMS aren’t created equal, some are more protective than others.

Most electric cars have BMS that allow them to use roughly 90 % of their total battery capacity (from 95 to 5 %), but in Chevrolet Volt’s case only 60 % (Gen 1) or 75 % (Gen 2) is usable and that’s why Chevrolet Volt is a clear example that limiting the usable battery capacity is great to reduce degradation.


Tesla as a company appears to be far ahead of the competition in terms of battery management.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 01 Sep 2019 01:37

Mort ji, like I said, if the energy density of the battery by weight is one-third of petrol, that might add an additional 3 to 4% to the overall vehicle weight due to the battery alone. There might be savings on the drive train, especially with independently controlled wheels (one motor per wheel) which would eliminate the axle. So yes, the power package moves the weight of the vehicle+passengers+cargo (and not the volume), but the weight addition wouldn't be that much (battery wise) and might actually be a reduction overall if the drive train was simplified. Meanwhile, saving volume means more room in the vehicle or a smaller profile.

I don't know what is keeping fuel cells from being adopted on vehicles, it seems there are problems of hydrogen leakage, embrittlement of storage tanks, or transportation problems in general. This was about 5 to 10 years back. Don't know to what extent the field has progressed. It's a good parallel track for research, certainly.

As far as BS-VI goes, it seems the manufacturers themselves are okay with it, and are only asking for uniform 18% GST and other kinds of sops, not for postponement of BS-VI. And the job losses seem to be only partially because of BS-VI (not saying BS-VI has no effect). I guess, overall, I disagree on the need to postpone BS-VI, I think early adoption is the way to go. And it's okay to disagree, anyway I don't have the ability to influence policy on this (not sure if you do).

I also think that a million additional deaths or incidences of disabling diseases due to pollution in a country of 1300 million people, would be a low-ball estimate :). Anyway, I'll try to stop with the generalities and get to specifics, with references and sources.

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Re: Policy Changes in India: Electric Vehicles, Pollution Control, Energy Source Mix, Etc.

Postby sudarshan » 07 Sep 2019 22:26

Currently drowning my sorrows (over Vikram succumbing to Vetal) by drinking cold water (hic :() since I don't drink alcohol. Will be back to this thread in a bit.


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