Towards an India centered economics Thread

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ramana
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Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby ramana » 02 Jan 2020 10:21

Folks let's start the new decade by thinking of an India centered economics way.

India is now a $3T economy and goal is to transform to $5T by 2024.

Basically if we go on this linear path will exhaust the world resources and go from boom to bust.
Angus Macfadden showed how from 1 AD to 1700 AD India had 25% World GDP .

This did not tax the world resources.
Similarly we need to look at an Indian way of economics.

Hope folks will contribute and help develop this concept.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby VKumar » 03 Jan 2020 03:49

Very important to revise the commercial and consumer laws. Make them simpler and easier to comply with. Change the Inspectors to Trainers/Coaches. Train MSME to comply with laws, rather than sending Inspectors to look for errors. Have an understanding of gravity of offence and thus free entrepreneurs from fear of persecution over trivial errors.

Increase Customs duties on imports from China to reduce imports of low tech consumer goods and help MSME manufacturing and increase employment.

Ensure lower bank interest rates are transmitted to businesses.
Reduce collateral requirements.

Improve infrastructure, Power, Transport, Cold chains.

And many, many more.

All improvements do not require more funding but do require a new mindset.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby vishvak » 03 Jan 2020 21:08

Hopefully govt will increase investment in thorium nuke power research for decreasing energy dependence. Everytime there is some more upheaval in middle East it becomes more clear and then quietly goes down in priority list. The energy import bill is huge and growing each year so wonder what will make it necessary or when.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby panduranghari » 12 Jan 2020 15:00

Moving away from Dollar based GDP measurements to a model using multi factor productivity index which is designed for India specifically would be a good start.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby khatvaanga » 14 Jan 2020 21:43

ramana wrote:Folks let's start the new decade by thinking of an India centered economics way.
This did not tax the world resources.
Similarly we need to look at an Indian way of economics.


an awesome concept sir. as i mentioned earlier, i am working on a paper about the village / mandal as the "unit" based on how it was administered in ancient india. though not directly correlated to economy, if we consider that as the primary building block then it would help us redefine the role of state / entrepreneurs when we look at the indian economic model.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby tandav » 14 Jan 2020 21:56

khatvaanga wrote:
ramana wrote:Folks let's start the new decade by thinking of an India centered economics way.
This did not tax the world resources.
Similarly we need to look at an Indian way of economics.


an awesome concept sir. as i mentioned earlier, i am working on a paper about the village / mandal as the "unit" based on how it was administered in ancient india. though not directly correlated to economy, if we consider that as the primary building block then it would help us redefine the role of state / entrepreneurs when we look at the indian economic model.


I have proposed a more district centric approach rather than just a village which may not be big enough to sustain refer thread here. Where the unit of administration is Administrative unit (AU) with a population of 10 lakhs. the conglomeration is unified under a federation called India administrative union (IAU)

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=7795&p=2407227#p2407227

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby khatvaanga » 14 Jan 2020 22:17

yes sir. already read thru that. I agree with your assessment. Let me at least complete the paper, i will reach out to you about the recommendations, if you are okay with it.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby Rishirishi » 15 Jan 2020 04:49

Very good idea. Please find my observations below.

I feel any idea presented must be feasable withing the economic and social limits. Also it must be "doable" not like if people stop throwing garbage, India will become clean.


India must aim beyond "slave like manufacturing" for economic growth. India is actually doing very well and has created millions of high paying jobs. To become world leaders, India needs to innovate and do more value addition work. Just like Taiwan, Korea, Japan etc has done. I think India needs to focus on the 5 points below.

1) Educated peoeple (Indians are willing and have education)
2) Good dependble leagal system, which can help enforce law (India has very slow court process)
3) Good living conditions that attracts people to come and stay (India is chaotic, polluted and traffic is unorganised)
4) A reasonablly stable economic environment (I think India has that).
5) Sufficient tax system to allow for development of common needs (infrastructure, defence, police, etc)

Legal system
India has a sofisticated and well developed legal framework and education. The lacking seems to the courts. Fixing the legal system should not be difficult if it is prioritized. Let us assume 10 000 new court rooms would cost 20-25 000 cr to run and maintain. Should be possible to manage.

Living conditions
On this account India scores very low. Indian cities are polluted, dirty, unorganized and lack recreational facilities.
Fixing this problem is not so extreemly difficult. If nothing else, focus on a few 3-4 cities like Bangalore, NCR, Mumbai etc.
It is about building pavements, planiting trees along roads and walkways, banning polluting activites like Disel cars, scoters and shuting down polluting industries and very importantly organizing the traffic and implimenting bus lanes across cities. But how do you pay for all this? Basically more taxation is required.


Tax system
One of the major problems of India is the very low tax revenue. Only 16% of GDP goes to taxes. This is simmilar to places like Pakistan, sub sahara etc. The tax base should be incresed to somewhere like 30%. With a 3 tr dollar economy the total taxation should be near 1 tr dollars. Before the free market liberals start their "tax is bad" theory please take a look at how much the various countries tax. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_revenue_to_GDP_ratio
Look towards counties like Germany, UK, Canada, Japan,USA etc.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby Dileep » 15 Jan 2020 09:30

First and foremost: A fast, fair and stable legal system for civil and commercial issues.
- Any government approval / sanction / clearance must not be changed retroactively. Spectrum once sold is sold. Building permit once issued is issued. etc. etc. If the approval / sanction / clearance was due to corruption. Only the act of the approval / sanction / clearance should be culpable. Not the result of the approval / sanction / clearance.
- Serious quick and disproportionate punishment for any kind of fraud. The USA got out of the literal 'snake oil salesmen' and 'fly by night operators' by that onlee. Ever heard of "Mail Fraud"?
- A system of "small claims court"

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby ricky_v » 15 Jan 2020 12:17

Is there any study in the value of tax deliverables in india and elsewhere; for eg. for every rupee spent by an individual in taxes, what is the percentage of amount that can be recovered by the individual in terms of deliverables(social, infrastructure) by the government in india and abroad. That percentage in comparision with other nations can pinpoint the areas where the government can improve in its ecosystem with standing taxation.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby Rishirishi » 16 Jan 2020 03:36

ricky_v wrote:Is there any study in the value of tax deliverables in india and elsewhere; for eg. for every rupee spent by an individual in taxes, what is the percentage of amount that can be recovered by the individual in terms of deliverables(social, infrastructure) by the government in india and abroad. That percentage in comparision with other nations can pinpoint the areas where the government can improve in its ecosystem with standing taxation.



There are plenty of theories, but they point in all directions. Mostly because the "studies" are sponsored by special interest groups.

There is however one basic truth. Every individual requires both personal things (house, car, cloths, travel) and also public things (roads, leagal framework, security etc). Without such public things, an economy cannot grow.

Then ther are servies that can be delivered both by private and public (health, education, recreational infrastructure, social social security, pension etc).

It is a great misconception that private is more cost effective then public. Take healthcare for example. USA uses 16% of the GDP on health, millions do not have access to healthcare or go bankrupt paying for it. Most advance countires like Canada, UK, Germany etc spend arround 9-11% on healthcare and can provide free helthcare to all its citizens. The helthcare in USA is perhaps better for the super rich, but most people live in a constant fear of medicia bills, specially when they are above 50.


The scandinavian countires have been rated the best societies to live in, with the highest quality of life. Low crime, job security, universal healthcare, free education system etc. They also pay the highest taxes (up to 65% of GDP).

For India, I think it is essential to focus on infrastructure and edcuation.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby ramana » 18 Jan 2020 11:01

tandav X-Post your ideas here, please.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 18 Jan 2020 17:50

Dileep wrote:First and foremost: A fast, fair and stable legal system for civil and commercial issues.
- Any government approval / sanction / clearance must not be changed retroactively. Spectrum once sold is sold. Building permit once issued is issued. etc. etc. If the approval / sanction / clearance was due to corruption. Only the act of the approval / sanction / clearance should be culpable. Not the result of the approval / sanction / clearance.
- Serious quick and disproportionate punishment for any kind of fraud. The USA got out of the literal 'snake oil salesmen' and 'fly by night operators' by that onlee. Ever heard of "Mail Fraud"?
- A system of "small claims court"

Slightly OT, but Kangaroostan just slammed a $11,000 fine for tossing a lighted cigarette butt out of a car window. Lesson from the fires. Isn't this cruel and unusual punishment But at least the news of it gets around.
I wonder about the news of J&K Mantri's RaGa getting arrested for some hajaar karod scam. Will it result in conviction, upheld, and a massive jail term? What is the record? Or will someone who steals enough to afford a good lawyer get off? Maybe govt needs excellent, top notch legal talent who will be focused on real justice , not just prosecutorial bissing contests?

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby UlanBatori » 18 Jan 2020 17:56

I want to see some sanity and reason take hold in Indian real estate.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby A_Gupta » 19 Jan 2020 21:30

https://www.indiawaterportal.org/sites/ ... t_2016.pdf

A study in to the southern states reveals that about hundred years prior to independence, 53000 ponds were counted in Madras Presidency. In 1885, the 14 districts were doing well with 43000 ponds. Similarly, in the phase of neglect in Mysore, about 39000 ponds were serving the people in one way or the other by 1980.Putting together all these scattered statistics, it can be said that till the beginning of this century about 11-12 lac ponds were filled to the brims from first day of Aashaadh to the last day of Bhadon, the fourth and sixth month respectively, according to the Bikrami calendar. And they used to distribute the ‘prasad’ of Varuna consistently up to the next Jeth (the third Bikrami month). It was all because of people’s perseverance in doing good deeds


Some of these ponds were made by a king or queen, some other by an ordinary householder, still another by some widow and further still any other by an enlightened ascetic. Whosever made a pond was revered by the people as Maharaj or Mahatma i.e. a pious soul. The grateful society immortalized its pond- makers and the people too expressed their sense of indebtedness by making ponds themselves, The phase of close coordination between the society and its members was no small a phase. Even if we leave aside the period ranging from Mahabharata and Ramayana for the time being, it can aptly be said that right from fifth century up to the fifteenth, the ponds kept coming in to existence from one corner of the country to the other. In this continuous tradition spreading over about one thousand years, some obstacles had started coming after the fifteenth century but even during those times this process never came to a complete halt. That period of turmoil failed to put a full stop to the task performed by the society in a systematic manner over such a long time. The ponds kept being constructed here and there even till the end of eighteenth and nineteenth century.

But then the number of pond makers also started dwindling gradually.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby ramana » 20 Jan 2020 00:04


ramana
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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby ramana » 20 Jan 2020 00:04

Will post text for analysis here.

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Re: Towards an India centered economics Thread

Postby tandav » 20 Jan 2020 22:10

A_Gupta wrote:https://www.indiawaterportal.org/sites/indiawaterportal.org/files/the_ponds_are_still_relevant_2016.pdf

A study in to the southern states reveals that about hundred years prior to independence, 53000 ponds were counted in Madras Presidency. In 1885, the 14 districts were doing well with 43000 ponds. Similarly, in the phase of neglect in Mysore, about 39000 ponds were serving the people in one way or the other by 1980.Putting together all these scattered statistics, it can be said that till the beginning of this century about 11-12 lac ponds were filled to the brims from first day of Aashaadh to the last day of Bhadon, the fourth and sixth month respectively, according to the Bikrami calendar. And they used to distribute the ‘prasad’ of Varuna consistently up to the next Jeth (the third Bikrami month). It was all because of people’s perseverance in doing good deeds


Some of these ponds were made by a king or queen, some other by an ordinary householder, still another by some widow and further still any other by an enlightened ascetic. Whosever made a pond was revered by the people as Maharaj or Mahatma i.e. a pious soul. The grateful society immortalized its pond- makers and the people too expressed their sense of indebtedness by making ponds themselves, The phase of close coordination between the society and its members was no small a phase. Even if we leave aside the period ranging from Mahabharata and Ramayana for the time being, it can aptly be said that right from fifth century up to the fifteenth, the ponds kept coming in to existence from one corner of the country to the other. In this continuous tradition spreading over about one thousand years, some obstacles had started coming after the fifteenth century but even during those times this process never came to a complete halt. That period of turmoil failed to put a full stop to the task performed by the society in a systematic manner over such a long time. The ponds kept being constructed here and there even till the end of eighteenth and nineteenth century.

But then the number of pond makers also started dwindling gradually.


The reason is that no one owned land... if a kind soul wanted to make a pond he/she could use any unused land (potentially with permission of the panchayat or king) in their neighborhood and dedicate their charitable efforts to the community. Once the concept of landownership started take root there was no land available to do such noble deeds


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