Postby Philip » 17 Dec 2008 15:19
From a recent conversation with a foreign Indo-Pak expert,who has hard access to the entire Paki establishment ,discussions covering a wide range of topics,Indo-Pak relations,Kashmir,the Middle East,US wars in Iraq,Afghanistan,global Islamist terrorism/Al Q,etc.The following points on which there was broad agreement were as follows.
1.The ordinary citizen in both Pak and India want to live in peace with each other.Bollywood,cricket and a common cultural heritage binds us together in a love-hate relationship.
2.Outside /external forces have since independence been trying to keep both countries at loggerheads or even in conflict.Thus the nations of Indian sub-continent (SAARC today) are prevented from exercising their influence in global affairs.The US's military adventurism in the region is a millstone round both nation's necks,especially Pak.,and for which there appears to be no early solution as long as the anti-Afghan forces operating out of the border areas supposedly under Paki control are allowed to operate without fear of punishment.
3.The Kashmir issue,the most intractable is being gradually defused through the relaxation of the LOC,holding of regular elections in the state and development aid.However,there are certain Kashmiri groups who are being secretly supported by western entities/agencies in continuing to demand a separate independent state, which if brought into being would allow a permanent foreign presence in the region (aimed primarily against China through Tibet),inimical to both India and Pak.India however had to keep up the momentum in defusing J&K and not waste the hard work gone before.The GOI should not bother about peripheral events like terror attacks around the country,but remain focussed on J&K affairs without sacrificing the security of the state.
4.Pakistan had become the epicentre of global Islamist terror.The beginning was Gen.Zia's Islamisation of the Pak state,totally contrary to Jinnah's vision.In this,he was supported by the west/US to the hilt,as they wanted to bring down the USSR by uprisings in the Islamic republics of the Soviet Union.Afghanistan was the breeding ground for events today and the Taliban a creation of Pak,Saudi Arabia and the CIA.The Iran-Iraq war where the US was Saddam's chief benefactor was also a part of history that reverberates in the subcontinent today.Saddam was paid billions for using chemical warfare against the Kurds,allegedly paid off by Rumsfeld (pictures exist) twice for gassing first the Kurds and then the Iranians.Unfortunately,Islamist blowback peaked with 9/11 and Osama's revenge.Here,Al Q had the support of the Isalmists in Pak who are to be found at every strata of the Paki establishment.
5.Gen.Musharraf represents the Paki military/ISI who are steeped in anti-India hatred.For the better part of its independence,Pakistan has been ruled by one military dictatorship after the other.These dictatorships remain in power by raising the bogey of India.Whenever there is an interlude of democracy,the elcted leaders of Pak are quickly compromised by some bout of deliberate miliitary adventurism leading to Indo-Pak military tension,derailing peace moves.Musharraf betrayed ABV/Sharif's bus diplomacy at Kargil and overthrew Sharif to save his own skin and that of the Paki military.The establishment took care of Benazir removing all shreds of evidence leaving no trails.
6.The US/NATO are in deep trouble in Afghanistan and will do their utmost to bring the Pak military establishment onto their side to fight the Taliban,compromising their principles in the bargain.There interests will come first as always.
7.Asked about the possibility (some time before 26/11) of the Pak military and the Indian armed forces working together towards establishing a regional securtity framework,which would significantly reduce tesnsions between both countries,the individual said that at the current time,though Zardari was all for a peaceful resolution of Indo-Pak problems,the elements in the military appratus made it unlikely.
In the aftermath of 26/11 ,these views will have to be updated,especially as a new US dispensation is about to take charge.How much flexibility it will allow the Pak military/ISI to continue operate against India is the moot question.Another round of attacks could be coordinated just before the elections,as it is now very evident that Zardari wears the skirt and Gen.Ar-e f**k Killany wears the uhiform and weilds the stick.In such circumstances,there is very little that India can do to stop this terror unless it decides to act decisively with Pak. on both diplomatic and military fronts