Indian Response to Terrorism after Mumbai

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Jan 2009 19:38

From the Independent UK-The big Q.Pros and cons.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 29955.html

The Big Question: Is India right to blame Pakistan for the attacks on Mumbai?

By Andrew Buncombe

Why are we asking this now?

In recent days the Indian government has stepped up the war of words with Pakistan that started when terror attacks in Mumbai left about 170 people dead. Yesterday, in his most outspoken statement yet, the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said Pakistan authorities "must have" been involved in the terror attack in November. Though not accusing the government in Islamabad directly, he continued: "There is enough evidence to show that, given the sophistication and military precision of the attack, it must have had the support of some official agencies in Pakistan."

What was Pakistan's response?

While Mr Singh's comments were not particularly different from those made in recent days by the country's Foreign Secretary and Home Minister, the response in Pakistan was especially angry – possibly because they came from the Prime Minister himself. Officials in Islamabad dismissed the comments as a "propaganda offensive" and said that claiming state agencies were involved in the attacks was both unwarranted and unacceptable. "India must refrain from hostile propaganda, and must not whip up tensions," said a Foreign Ministry statement. "Pakistan emphatically rejects the unfortunate allegations."

Does India believe that the civilian government is behind the attacks?

Almost certainly not. Indian officials have stressed they are not pointing fingers at Pakistan's civilian leadership, headed by the President Asif Ali Zardari and the Prime Minister Yousaf Gilani. Until this point they have also been careful to draw a distinction between so-called "state actors" and "non-state" actors. These comments suggest, however, they believes that some elements of Pakistan's state – the intelligence agencies for example – may have been involved. On Monday India's Foreign Secretary, Shivshankar Menon, went as far as to say: "Even the so-called non-state actors function within a state are citizens of a state. We don't think there's such a thing as non-state actors."

So why has their approach changed?

India is determined to keep up the pressure on Pakistan. Its shift in rhetoric coincides with the passing to Pakistan of a dossier of evidence it says proves the attacks were carried out by Pakistan-based militants – members of the banned group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). The dossier reportedly included transcripts of electronic intercepts and interrogation reports from the questioning of Mohammed Ajmal Kasab, the sole surviving militant. Some reports claim the dossier contained information detailing strict instructions given by the militants' handlers to those who carried out the attacks, stressing the need to "kill Jews" and to seize a senior Indian official. Indian officials said taken in its entirety, the evidence "leads to the conclusion that the plot was hatched in Pakistan and as the operation in Mumbai was on, it was masterminded and controlled from Pakistan".

Is there more to it?

Part of the problem for India is that it has very few realistic options for dealing with Pakistan. Officials in Delhi know that if they were to launch any sort of military strike against suspected terror targets inside Pakistan, the result could be devastating; the civilian government in Pakistan would be weakened; there would be huge public anger in the country and there would almost certainly be more attacks launched on Indian targets as a result. In such circumstances, India can realistically do little more than speak firmly and seek to keep international support on its side. It's also worth bearing in mind that, with an election scheduled to take place in the next couple of months, Indian officials – in much the same way as their Pakistan counterparts – need to speak differently for different audiences. The Congress Party-led government has often been accused by its main opposition rival, the BJP, of being soft on terrorism and in the aftermath of Mumbai, Mr Singh and his senior ministers want to be seen to be acting firmly. It may also reflect a belief in Delhi that the Indian government needs to address different power centres in Pakistan – the civilian administration, the military and the intelligence establishment.

What steps has Pakistan taken so far?

In the aftermath of the attacks, Pakistan made warm, cooperative noises and arrested about 50 people associated with LeT and closed down a number of its facilities. Mr Zardari even offered to send the head of the ISI intelligence agency to India to help, though this was quickly overruled by the military. Since then it appears to have dug its heels in, insisting that intelligence suggesting the involvement of Pakistan-based militants it had been given through second parties, including the US and Britain, was not conclusive. Even now, while it says it is reviewing the dossier of evidence it has been given directly, officials have raised doubts about its veracity or completeness. It has also said it would not extradite any alleged suspects to India, as no treaty exists for such procedures.

Could Pakistan do more?

The problem for Mr Zardari and the civilian government that has held office for less than a year, is that its position is terribly fragile. Mr Zardari faces challenges on many fronts, and how far the military would allow the government to move against militants such as the LeT, with which it may still retain links, is unclear. While the president may wish to be seen to cooperate with the international community, there are vast domestic pressures not to be seen to bow towards India, a historic adversary.

How significant are their historical disagreements?

All-important. India and Pakistan have fought on three occasions. They faced off with each other in 2002 when some analysts believed the nuclear-armed countries were again heading for war. As a result there is observable mutual distrust and even the most level-headed of officials often betray seemingly illogical suspicion of the other side. The media in both countries has sometimes been guilty of nationalistic or hysterical coverage.

What are the chances of a joint investigation?

India is nervous of sharing too much intelligence with Pakistan and the ISI, elements of which were blamed by Delhi and Washington for involvement in a bomb attack last year on the Indian Embassy in Kabul that left more than 50 people dead. That may be why India took so long to directly provide Pakistan with the dossier of evidence. At the moment there are several concurrent and separate investigations being carried out by India, the ISI, the FBI and Scotland Yard.

What offers the best hope of resolving things?

India is hopeful that international pressure from the US, China and Saudi Arabia – which have the most influence over Pakistan – might elicit a further response from Islamabad, in whose court the ball now lies since being handed the dossier. Joe Biden, the Vice-President elect, will this week be the latest US envoy to visit Pakistan for talks to defuse the tension. If Pakistan were to try and prosecute some LeT members, India could at least claim some sort of result. It will also, of course, have to address the issue of those Indians allegedly also involved in the plot.

Could the nuclear-armed neighbours come to blows over Mumbai?

Yes...

* The two nations have already fought three times before.

* Both sides have dispatched thousands of troops to their border. This cannot help but raise tensions.

* There is widespread mistrust and suspicion from both parties about each other and no sense that these suspicions can be easily allayed.

No...

* The international community wants Pakistan to focus on the militants in the tribal areas who attack Western troops in Afghanistan.

* Military action by India could lead to a military coup in Pakistan.

* Both sides are all too well aware of the huge cost, human and financial, of conflict.

PS:"Those Indians also allegedly in the plot" Where did he get this from?

So what are our realistic options? Clearly,Pakistan's military establishment must be punished,on or off the battlefield as the only manner which is acceptable to India.

This can be accomplished without going to war if the world community acts on behalf of India and its own citizens who were murdered on 26/11.
If the US and the international community (highly unlikely) impose military (at least) and economic sanctions upon Pak,declare its jehdi outfits terrorist organisations and proscribe them,declare several of the paki military/ISI individuals in service and retd. as "wanted" terrorist masterminds,then India can say that in some measure,it has been vindicated and that our diplomatic campaign has been victorious.

If on the other hand,because of its unbridled "lust" for its rentboy of the region,the US fails to deliver on the diplomatic front,then India will have no other option but to adopt a total break in diplomatic relations with pak as the first step and later on,when the opportunity will inevitably present itself with further terror attacks,strike militarily at Pak.Anything less will be a gross dereliction of duty from the GOI of the moment and tantamount to treason.

prahladh · Post by **prahladh** » 07 Jan 2009 19:46

Pak will accept only the involvement of Let but will deny involvement of kingpin ISI and existence of Masood and other items in TSP. Which will be a tight slap and there is nothing we can do about it.
Its better if we use the ARC or UAVs to find those training camps of terrorists and hideouts, give them over to US agencies and let Predator do the strike work in exchange for some defence deals. If possible!.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jan 2009 19:52

we need TOT from Gotus to setup a dollar mint in Nasik. with
this under control we can pay the US govt a respectable price for their services and also engage merceneries and bummers of all hues.

abandon dharma and do what needs to get done.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Jan 2009 20:00

How is Pakistan going to respond now ?

It is ridiculing Indian dossier. It says that whatever India has given cannot stand in a court of law. When that comes from a country where people fear the 'agencies' or people have simply 'disappeared' or where all laws have been violated to hand over citizens and other momin to kufr Crusaders, it should become obvious even to those who are pea-brained that TSP has absolutely no intention of acting against terrorism. If they do, it will strike at the very foundations of that State. It is putting on a show that it is a constitutionally governed country where laws are sacrosanct and its law enforcing agencies and courts of law are paragon of virtue. So, it will do its 'own investigation' now and claim it has some proof of terrorist activities on its {night}soil but nothing really linking that to Mumbai carnage. It will dramatically 'capture' Masood Azhar and some 'top' AQ leader to keep US sufficiently interested. All its attempts, from now on, would be to satisfy the US (and China) minimally always promising more wonderful things in the immediate future, especially if India stops threatening. It will kill some ETIM Uighur terrorists or may even 'rescue' that Chinese engineer who is still in TTP's hands by cutting a deal with it. It will keep taunting, provoking and rubbishing India in the meanwhile expecting it to display the same impotent behaviour it has shown vis-a-vis aggression.

What India has done so far sets the base to justify future actions. Mrs IG talked to World leaders and even went to the US before the 1971 action. She gathered enough world opinion though the US was not particularly swayed by it due to Cold War considerations. We may have a more amenable US today but it is not that reliable as the USSR of 1971. In fact, the US is not sharing India's perception that the ISI is involved in the Mumbai carnage. The US does not want India to go to war and it will use all options at its disposal to do that. TSP knows that and is emboldened by the US attitude. Time should come pretty soon, I hope, when India goes ahead and does what it has to do without worrying about US sensitivities.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 07 Jan 2009 20:06

SSridhar wrote:
tripathi wrote:how come mullah amar singh became suddenly patriotic
May be Anil Ambani's business interests are getting impacted in some way.

Or just posturing. Nothing's gonna happen with this napunsak netas in power. The Sardar should take off his kada and don some nice shiney, colourful bangles.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 07 Jan 2009 20:27

All that India lacks is a visionary leader. Period.

tripathi · Post by **tripathi** » 07 Jan 2009 20:54

how come mullah amar singh became suddenly patriotic

Amar threatens to withdraw support

New Delhi, Jan 7: In a clear message to Centre to take stern action against Pakistan, the Samajwadi Party General Secretary Amar Singh today threatened to withdraw support from the Congress-led UPA government.

Just after the meeting with External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Amar Singh said government should initiate military action in Pak Occupied Kashmir to flush out terror camps in the valley.

It is worth mentioning here that during the trust vote the Smajwadi Party had extended its support to the government.

http://www.samaylive.com/news/amar-thre ... 03690.html

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 07 Jan 2009 21:02

tripathi wrote:how come mullah amar singh became suddenly patriotic

May be Anil Ambani's business interests are getting impacted in some way.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Jan 2009 21:06

Sridhar,yes,Mrs.Gandhi's achievements in beheading Pak in '71 seems even more astounding in retrospect,given the state of the Indian economy and military capability then.Her methods used in '71 are a great manual for the current leadership to employ if they only study it well.It is now abundantly clear that Pak has NO plans under the puppet govt. of Zardari to assist India in bringing the guilty to book,as the guilty are those at the very helm of affairs in the Paki military,the real rulers of Pak.These sordid perverted military men have to be taught a signal lesson every 10 years or so.Each stuffed military dummy-in-chief of Pak has to be taught a lesson like the ones that Ayub,Yahya,Musharraf and their minions suffered.

We can use many methods to punish Pak,both legal and illegal.They should all be used.There are military weaknesses in the Paki force structure ,the Kargil war saw us use some innovative tactics.The entire spectrum of the Paki military establishment should be the targets of both covert and overt surgical strikes.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Jan 2009 21:06

However, there is no record of Ajmal Kasab in the database of NADRA.

But, so are the nameS of Mush and Prez Z and PM K and all the Generals of the PA (not in the NADRA database).

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Jan 2009 21:11

Dilbu wrote:All that India lacks is a visionary leader. Period.

We do have 'em but they get snubbed and become aam juntas or perhaps a good BRFite.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 07 Jan 2009 21:50

India has no dearth of good leaders, but they do not have the qualifications to enter Indian politics i.e the 3Cs - Cash, Crime, Caste.

It's very hard to get into politics & speak the truth without being threatened, beaten up, murdered, tortured or kidnapped. It's not just what goes around in the movies, this is the harsh reality.

The Pakistanis think they have nothing to lose from a nuclear war since their society & economy are rotten anyways. I feel the same for India, except for the economic part. Period.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jan 2009 21:54

Infosys, Wipro get terror e-mails

Bangalore: Six prominent IT companies in the city, including Infosys and Wipro, have received e-mails threating to blow up their buildings, a top police officer said.

Joint Commissioner of Police B Gopal Hosur said that the companies received e-mails threatening to blow up their establishments two days ago and immediately informed the police.

The police have already begun investigations, he said, but did not divulge further details.

sum · Post by **sum** » 07 Jan 2009 22:11

Did anyone see the Pranab-da interview on Times Now?
Man, was smoke blowing out of his ears or what? You could easily replace him with a BRF jingo and the replies he gave would have been the same!!!

So, its amazing that despite knowing all the perifidy of the Pakis, the GoI is so helpless/unwilling to Punish them!!!

ManishC · Post by **ManishC** » 07 Jan 2009 22:21

Chandragupta wrote: The Pakistanis think they have nothing to lose from a nuclear war since their society & economy are rotten anyways. I feel the same for India, except for the economic part. Period.

If Pakis were so gungho about going up in smoke they would not readily Gubo to their Masters. The low threshold for nuclear war is just a ruse to keep needling India with no fear of consequences. This bluff needs to be called with India setting it's own redlines
1. Any jehadi terrorist action within India (that Includes J&K to clarify for the Paki dickheads) is cause for overt and covert retaliation against Pakistan with quantum of pain going up with each transgression.
2. Any move towards those Babars and Humayuns would invite a nuclear response.

A Mad Max approach to Pak is needed, all the sweet reasonable responsible, calibrated talk would only make sure a major terrorist attack every 12-18 months and armed forces going back and forth from cantonments to border with the same frequency with nothing to show for it. And waiting for that slum to implode on it's own is not going to work either - not with the three cosponsors still around.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Jan 2009 22:25

Chandragupta wrote:India has no dearth of good leaders, but they do not have the qualifications to enter Indian politics i.e the 3Cs - Cash, Crime, Caste.

It's very hard to get into politics & speak the truth without being threatened, beaten up, murdered, tortured or kidnapped. It's not just what goes around in the movies, this is the harsh reality.

The Pakistanis think they have nothing to lose from a nuclear war since their society & economy are rotten anyways. I feel the same for India, except for the economic part. Period.

is it possible to make military system separate for these hooligans and give them ranks.. send them on covert missions. life lost would not hurt us more that that would hurt to lose honest citizens. they would also get paid well.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Jan 2009 22:31

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Terr ... 947694.cms

US find Indian dossier credible.
Why ISI chief is saying now he was read to visit India which we know is safed jhoot?

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Jan 2009 22:37

Cause without UN-kill and C-hyenas, Paki army is Zilch. Any statement from these two giants can kill Paki ISI men.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 07 Jan 2009 22:41

sum wrote:Did anyone see the Pranab-da interview on Times Now?
Man, was smoke blowing out of his ears or what? You could easily replace him with a BRF jingo and the replies he gave would have been the same!!!

So, its amazing that despite knowing all the perifidy of the Pakis, the GoI is so helpless/unwilling to Punish them!!!

our hands have always been tied because of the superpowers who threaten to intervene on behalf of pakistan - once we are strong enough not to fear the intervention, our hands will be untied

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 07 Jan 2009 22:44

Lalmohan wrote:
sum wrote:Did anyone see the Pranab-da interview on Times Now?
Man, was smoke blowing out of his ears or what? You could easily replace him with a BRF jingo and the replies he gave would have been the same!!!

So, its amazing that despite knowing all the perifidy of the Pakis, the GoI is so helpless/unwilling to Punish them!!!
our hands have always been tied because of the superpowers who threaten to intervene on behalf of pakistan - once we are strong enough not to fear the intervention, our hands will be untied

How will that happen when these forces are the very factors which prevent us from gaining strength? It is like a dog chasing its own tail. We need to break out of the circle.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Jan 2009 22:54

Right now they are showing on Zee news (=Manohar Kahaniya)

Breaking news: NSA of Pakistan suspended by Primeminister

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 07 Jan 2009 23:05

ManishC wrote:
Chandragupta wrote: The Pakistanis think they have nothing to lose from a nuclear war since their society & economy are rotten anyways. I feel the same for India, except for the economic part. Period.
If Pakis were so gungho about going up in smoke they would not readily Gubo to their Masters. The low threshold for nuclear war is just a ruse to keep needling India with no fear of consequences. This bluff needs to be called with India setting it's own redlines
1. Any jehadi terrorist action within India (that Includes J&K to clarify for the Paki dickheads) is cause for overt and covert retaliation against Pakistan with quantum of pain going up with each transgression.
2. Any move towards those Babars and Humayuns would invite a nuclear response.

A Mad Max approach to Pak is needed, all the sweet reasonable responsible, calibrated talk would only make sure a major terrorist attack every 12-18 months and armed forces going back and forth from cantonments to border with the same frequency with nothing to show for it. And waiting for that slum to implode on it's own is not going to work either - not with the three cosponsors still around.

I think you put it the best. Every action should be responded with severe punishment to ISI officers, military officers and every crackpot Paki politician. Chase them and eliminate them whether in Gulf or Dubai or Pakistan or anywhere. Make them fear for their own safety. Organize a mission to make Dawood into thousand pieces under their own protection. That will put fear of God in those beasts.

Amit Singh · Post by **Amit Singh** » 07 Jan 2009 23:10

Pakistan fires paki security adviser who acknowledged Kasab as a paki national:

http://thenews.jang.com.pk/updates.asp?id=64387

PM removes National Security Adviser Mahmud Durrani
Updated at: 2130 PST, Wednesday, January 07, 2009
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani has sacked National Security Adviser Mahmud Ali Durrani, Geo News reported Wednesday.

Talking to Geo News here, Prime Minister Gilani said Durrani had given a statement to an Indian news channel regarding Ajmal Kasab without taking him into confidence.

The prime minister said that Durrani’s statement had tarnished the country’s image.

LOL.

Clearly, the military is still in power and will always be. Prepare the troops!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Jan 2009 23:14

Amit Singh wrote:Pakistan fires its minister who acknowledged Kasab as a paki national:

http://thenews.jang.com.pk/updates.asp?id=64387

PM removes National Security Adviser Mahmud Durrani
Updated at: 2130 PST, Wednesday, January 07, 2009
LOL.

Clearly, the military is still in power and will always be. Prepare the troops!

tell me what if US/UN declare Pak a terrorist state, I am sure US won't like to come out of Afghanistan defeated and the buck has to pass some where

Amit Singh · Post by **Amit Singh** » 07 Jan 2009 23:18

I think the US wants to establish Afghan as a base first and hence has acknowledged India's position but is asking restraint since most of their heavy lifting is now done from pakistan. Once they establish other sources (Read for USSR breakoff countries) it will sing a different tune. India in the meanwhile should sharpen its knives which it is doing, while informing the world of whats coming up next.

btw, they sacked their security adviser, not the minister (Sherry Rehman). Imagine a country not having faith in their security adviser. lol

Sherry Rehman is next.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2009 00:49

There is a small window opening where India will have freedom to act.

I think Zaradari & US better be ready for the PA coup as things are spinning out of control.

If they want to save the TSP state they will have to do a pre-emptive coup on TSPA or they will both get Kiyanied.

Kiyanied = First name in English!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 08 Jan 2009 00:54

Rammana how will things change for us if there is military coup in Pak, how would be this seen by US, can Pak do something spectacular to divert attention if yes what it could be ? What should India do if there is coup in Pak?

kasthuri · Post by **kasthuri** » 08 Jan 2009 00:58

Can anybody explain why the army could come into play for Durrani's sacking?

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 08 Jan 2009 01:04

What ,IF, it is made mandatory for the MPs to serve as jawans in J&K and Siachen for two months (Jan and Feb)?They will develop some discipline,some patriotism and some adrenaline.No more chappal throwing sessions...

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 08 Jan 2009 01:05

kasthuri wrote:Can anybody explain why the army could come into play for Durrani's sacking?

Durrani was seen as a US stooge. Already Aslam Beg is saying he's a CIA agent. TSP TV is talking of his "relationship" with an woman from a US think-tank...

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 08 Jan 2009 01:06

A military coup in pak gives us someone to slap harder. Go, Kiyani!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2009 01:10

indradhanush wrote:Rammana how will things change for us if there is military coup in Pak, how would be this seen by US, can Pak do something spectacular to divert attention if yes what it could be ? What should India do if there is coup in Pak?

For India it would remove the facade of TSP civilian govt. It would mean all the effort in moving Mushy is gone and US Govt cannot sell the idea of more $ to TSP. So keeps them in the wringer for some more time.
I dont know how US will see it at this time. But if they allow the coup then its clear to India that India is all alone.
Its in US and Zardari interest to prevent the forthcoming coup.

Last one is the $M question. At a minimum dont act scared or witless.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 08 Jan 2009 01:13

I think a coup is a possibility, but not so much to replace a civilian government, but more to solidify the Islamisation process.

PA + ISI is no longer a conventional armed force, but considers itself an Islamic force that is simply carrying out its destiny.

As Gul states, the US is only a problem that needs to be dealt with until fate itself gobbles up the US (starting with its eco melt down).

Any intervention better have a great exit strategy (although from an Indian PoV it is rather too late in the game). And in-between there better be an awareness to complete the job with or without UNSC (granted: what is UNSC?).

The PA possibly is forcing the hand.

kasthuri · Post by **kasthuri** » 08 Jan 2009 01:14

Rangudu wrote:
kasthuri wrote:Can anybody explain why the army could come into play for Durrani's sacking?
Durrani was seen as a US stooge. Already Aslam Beg is saying he's a CIA agent. TSP TV is talking of his "relationship" with an woman from a US think-tank...

Sorry still trying to understand. So the CIA may aid in a coup ? Or the army may go for a coup against the civilian TSP gov. for sacking Durrani? I thought the TSP army was against US invasion.

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 08 Jan 2009 01:15

GP's latest

Is India heading for a diplomatic quagmire on Mumbai carnage?

G. Parthasarathy

The forthcoming visit of the Home Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, to Washington, with evidence of Pakistani involvement in the 26/11 Mumbai carnage marks the end of the first phase of India’s efforts to seek international understanding and support to compel Pakistan to irrevocably dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism, which it has built to “bleed” India.

New Delhi’s position initially seemed to endorse President Zardari’s position that the terrorist attack was undertaken by “non-state actors”. There appeared to be a disinclination to make it clear that, given the sophisticated nature of the operation, it could not have been undertaken without training, arms, ammunition, grenades, navigational equipment and logistical facilities being provided by the Pakistan army and navy.

Such collaboration between the Pakistan army and navy would have required clearance at the highest levels of the armed forces. We should remember that in Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, the Pakistan army has a leader who is pathologically anti-Indian.

Shortly after the terrorist attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul and virtually on the day that Pakistan Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani arrived on an official visit in Washington, the CIA leaked the details of ISI involvement in the attack to the New York Times, indicating that such an attack could have been mounted only with clearance of not only the ISI Director-General, Lt Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha, but also, evidently, of army chief Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani.

It is, therefore, not clear why New Delhi chose to be so circumspect and not draw attention to the Pakistan army’s involvement in the Mumbai carnage.

Seeing New Delhi’s ambivalence on the involvement of the Pakistani armed forces, the Americans and others have tacitly sought to absolve the Pakistani armed forces of any involvement.

If such involvement is established in the killing of American nationals, they would have been forced to act against the ISI, causing huge embarrassment to the relationship with a “major non-NATO ally”, whose assistance they require in their “war on terror”.

The US had substantial information of ISI involvement in the Mumbai bomb blasts in 1993, but the Clinton Administration chose not to act on it.

Similarly, there was no dearth of evidence on the involvement of the Pakistan armed forces in the proliferation of nuclear know-how to Iran, Libya and North Korea. But the Bush Administration has accepted the Musharraf Government’s assertion that the entire proliferation was the work of Dr A. Q. Khan and a so-called “A. Q. Khan network”.

Strategic denial

The Pakistan army appears determined to persist with its policy of “strategic denial and defiance” in dealing with its culpability in the Mumbai carnage. But it does appear to have a “fallback position”.

If international pressure becomes stronger, the army appears prepared to allow the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) Communications Chief, Zarar Shah, to take the rap. It would, however, not allow the LeT chief Hafiz Mohammed Saeed to face trial, despite the fact that by his many utterances of his involvement in terrorist attacks in India, including the January 2001 attack on the Red Fort, Saeed is a self-confessed terrorist.

Zarar Shah is known to play an important role in coordination and liaison between the ISI and the LeT. A quiet “deal” would be struck with Zarar Shah involving a “confession” of his sins, a la A. Q. Khan, in return for a farcical and prolonged “trial” and eventual acquittal, once memory of the Mumbai carnage fades from international attention. Sadly, Pakistan’s judiciary lacks credibility. It has, after all, regularly endorsed takeovers by military dictators.

New Delhi should not overlook these realities. While there are said to be transcripts of conversations between serving and former ISI officers on the Mumbai carnage, India will now have to insist that, as in the attack on our Embassy in Kabul, the Mumbai outrage could not have taken place without the approval of Gen Kiyani.

Tough talk with the US

The US should be told that there should be no cover up, as in the past, on Pakistan army and ISI culpability. Pakistan will insist on legal proceedings, if any, being in Pakistani courts. India, however, cannot ignore how Omar Syed Sheikh, released during the Kandahar hijacking, was convicted of killing American journalist Daniel Pearl by an anti-terrorism court in Pakistan and sentenced to death, but still remains a free man, in an evident conspiracy of silence between the US and Pakistan.

India should insist that if Pakistan refuses to hand over those guilty, including military officials past and present, to India, these individuals should be extradited to the US and tried according to US judicial processes, much in the way Pakistani terrorist Aimal Kansai was extradited, tried and executed in the US.

At the same time, there is a wide range of actions — diplomatic, overt and covert — that India will have to take, if it wants to be taken seriously and not regarded as a supplicant. First, our High Commissioner to Pakistan should be recalled and the staff in High Commissions reduced to a minimal level.

The argument that the High Commissioner has useful contacts has little merit as contacts can be maintained, when needed, through other channels.

Second, we should quickly work out measures to ensure that the waters of the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, meant for exclusively by India, are used in India and do not flow into Pakistan. Cultural and sports contacts need to be restricted to events to which we are internationally committed.

Covert action

Strategically, the Americans and others should be made aware that we may be compelled to take measures that would result in Pakistan moving its forces away from its borders with Afghanistan, unless our concerns are seriously addressed.

Finally, we have to send a clear message that we are not insensitive to Afghan and Pashtun aspirations on the Durand Line, which in any case now exists only notionally.

All this has to be supplemented by wide-ranging and sustained covert action. Over the last decade, successive Governments in New Delhi have been guilty of undermining the country’s covert capabilities, in an unrealistic quest for a mythical “shared destiny” with Pakistan.

By stating that any future terrorist attack would have unimaginable consequences, New Delhi already appears to be suggesting that we would be prepared to “forget and forgive” in the aftermath of the Mumbai carnage. The message instead should be that we will neither forget nor forgive.

There also appear to be some illusions about China’s role. We should never forget that if China had not blocked moves in the UN Security Council in 2006 and 2007 to declare the Jamat-ud-Dawa as an international terrorist organisation, which would have subjected it to international sanctions, the Mumbai carnage may not have occurred. China is thus an accessory to the Mumbai carnage.

(The author is a former High Commissioner to Pakistan)

Rangudu · Post by **Rangudu** » 08 Jan 2009 01:17

ramana is on the mark.

A military ruled TSP would mean less aid, cancelled military deals with EU and the removal of a fig leaf. A Talibanized or a military TSP is in India's interests, or rather would eliminate a rhetorical cover for US.

John Snow · Post by **John Snow** » 08 Jan 2009 01:29

But for the dumb NSA

"Unless there is military Rule, how can India espouse the cause of democracy in TS Pakistan"?

It is in the best interest of India that a Talibanized TSP Army Rule inTSP.

{ Recall all the idiotic strategists who were suggesting India better deal with TSP army than a civilian govt, when Mushy over threw Badmash, now the very same stategists want to protect the Mr. 10%

)

Nandu · Post by **Nandu** » 08 Jan 2009 01:30

Aimal Kansi was extradited to US because he committed the crime there.

The idea of India asking for extradition to a third country, of terrorists who killed Indians, is just silly.

samuel · Post by **samuel** » 08 Jan 2009 01:31

The Pakistani Army becomes more effective when it has a civilian facade. It is the time it can easily set all sorts of covert operations into motion, and control the action with fewer consequences to itself. But control at all times it does. Being able to point to it without the smokescreen is a good way to squeeze it, if at all. At least it allows us to "whine" better. When enough pressure builds, there are elections in pakistan and the army goes to covert mode again. So, everytime that happens, we need to go out there and break it all up and bring them back to the top. It helps to try and time this. For example, certain parties in India benefit when the change to civilian in pak happens just before our own elections. But it weakens the same parties in power when Pak transitions to military after Indian elections, unless those who come to power here know how to use that to push an Indian agenda. There will be no cooooo before Indian elections, $1 to you if it does.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Jan 2009 01:35

Thanks R.

I disagree with GP

Seeing New Delhi’s ambivalence on the involvement of the Pakistani armed forces, the Americans and others have tacitly sought to absolve the Pakistani armed forces of any involvement.

And extraditing to countries other than India is just plain wrong. US wont do anyting and UK might even acquit them with Lord Avebury as the advocate. Has US done anything with its GBay detainees? They all will be set free eventually.

US and the Angl Saxon West will absolve TSP and its armed forces of any wrong doing regradless of what India will or will not provide. Its their strategic interest. In fact key to their survival of the Judeo-Christain doxy they claim inheritence to. Its as fundamental as that.

Such being the case India should preapre to do what she has to do with or without the help of others.

One surprise is Kiyani is turning out to be more jihadi then Mushy. So the Deobandi coup that I had predicted in 2007 to forestall the jihadi takeover has been forestalled as the jihadis have taken over the TSPA before the schedule.

Its not Talibanistan any more but the Army of Islam (razakars of yore) has taken over the land completely. Zardari, RAPE etc are passing masks who will be dropped as needed.

The only people who have not realized this are US and Indian elite.