India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

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sanjayc
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby sanjayc » 01 Jul 2020 02:50

^^ Agree. Chinese are full of themselves and delusional. Their pretensions will come crashing down once they get a bloody nose. They seem to live in a bubble. They have risen only on the crutches of Western patronage of their economy (supply cheap goods to West who did them a favour by buying) but Chinese have developed illusions of grandeur.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 03:21

1) Even the US Military considers China as a formidable opponent. So, what do I mean by that (this is my opinion)? It means that the US is fully expecting to "win", but the cost the US will pay as compared to say 10-20 years ago is a LOT more. (The cost could be in any form, but mostly lives.) No, China is not delusional. This was one point that went into my calcs when I said India is the last line of defense. IF India folds, I expect it to be a political fold (as usual)(not a military fold), then the dominoes will start falling. As it is we can see the verbal diarrhea WRT the Chinese change of law in Hong Kong has hit the airwaves, lead by none other than the great BBC. Nothing will be done. Citizens of Honk Kong are tamely laying down their arms, so to speak. Letting Chinese apps back into the Indian market will be nothing less

2) China has a game plan. They are NOT delusional, we are

a) Made in China 2025 (sounds familiar?)

Made in China 2025 (Chinese: 中国制造2025; pinyin: Zhōngguó zhìzào èrlíng'èrwǔ)[1] is a strategic plan of the People's Republic of China issued by Premier Li Keqiang and his cabinet in May 2015.[2] With it, China aims to move away from being the "world's factory", producing cheap, low-quality goods facilitated by lower labour costs and supply chain advantages. The initiative encourages production of high value products and services, like aerospace and semiconductors, to help achieve independence from foreign suppliers.[3][4][5][6][7] It is in essence a blueprint to upgrade the manufacturing capabilities of Chinese industries into a more technology-intensive power.

..........


b) The Hundred-Year Marathon: China's Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower

This 2015 book provides an insight into what China would like to accomplish by 2049 (I do not care about the significance of 2049, so please do not ask why 49 and not 51 or 48). China wants to and plans on dominating in every aspect of everything. To support that China's GDP (yes, that silly acronym again) will be greater than of the US (India, by then, may leap the US too)




3) So, that said, an observation or two about that interview:

a) Again, Indians love analysis. I think India will dig herself a grave with these analyses. While China will use her might to push people/nations around - as she is doing today all across the globe. And, no one will do anything. More F-35s. More Rafales. Nothing is going to happen. Because, everyone, without exception, will want a good relationship with China and therefore would prefer not to go to war and China will push, but never fire a bullet.

I bet China will learn after the Galwan incident and that will be the last time the two sides will ever meet in such a manner. The next time China gets into Indian (or for that matter Japanese, V'nam, etc) "territory", China will be fully prepared not to let physical spaces overlap. Not happening. And, bet China will generate plenty of topics for us all - across the globe - to analyze and discuss

b) I have always and with the above interview again solidified my view that India in particular makes a lot of noise about PoK, GB and Aksai Chin. BUT never with China - no one mentions Aksai Chin is ours. While China, without mentioning Ladakh, very clearly says India is building infrastructure on "disputed land". No one, except Col. and below of the IA, turns around and says "don't you ever say that again"


4) A word on "GDP". Indian GDP has been going backward
5) Yun Sun made that point very well - Indian GDP being 20% of the Chinese GDP. BUT, what has that got to do with IA thrashing the PLA? I am not talking of a war of attrition - that I am convinced will not be in India's favor. I am talking of (mentioned this earlier too), absolutely thrashing PLA in their Western Theater. Cost? Yes, it will be high for India - mostly in lives (military + civilians perhaps) and material. But, China should leave Tibet for another 20-30 years. Done with CPEC, OBOR, Silk Road, whatever else

And, maybe - in this one case (thrashing) loop in Japan and the US on the Eastern front. BUT, only if it is a terminal war. (No, it will not go nuclear.) No more Western Theater Command for the PLA and no more dashed lines in the SCS. Anything less will only lead to analysis paralysis.


6) Throughout the world, most politicians, will shout and drown out their own people (called political opponents). But, will never be nasty to the opponents of their nation. China and her satellite nations are the only exceptions. China and they are dictatorial but focused. The rest are democratic and do not know what - on drugs?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 01 Jul 2020 04:01

NRao wrote:And, maybe - in this one case (thrashing) loop in Japan and the US on the Eastern front. BUT, only if it is a terminal war. (No, it will not go nuclear.) No more Western Theater Command for the PLA and no more dashed lines in the SCS. Anything less will only lead to analysis paralysis.


I have said earlier on this thread, the only way to win this war with China is to pick your own theater to escalate. Right now the PLA goes to Galwan, the IA beefs up there, they go to Pangong Tso the IA follows, they go to Depsang Plains the IA follows, tomorrow they will push into Arunachal Pradesh, the IA will reinforce there. This is being defensive to a fault.

So pick your theater. Make it oil, China's strategic oil reserves and maritime interdiction of their oil tankers. Destroy their strategic oil reserves which have a capacity of 80 days consumption and interdict China bound oil tankers off the Cochin coast. That will do 2 things. One, it will destroy China's mobility, both for civilian as well as military infrastructure immediately. And two, it will ensure that China throws everything that it has militarily at India short of a nuclear strike. Other countries will join in when India has done the heavy lifting. This will then be a terminal war as you have said.

The site locations for China's strategic petroleum reserves:

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 04:03

Larry Walker wrote:China pulling back without firing a short is a complete loss of HnD for CPC. The only way they can do it is just before pulling back - they will do a huge PR excercise and provide evidence that how China occupied lands within India's territory and kept it in its possession for 4-5 months and India could do nothing. This is minimum required for China to declare victory. And that is why I think we will just not wait for Chinese to vacate during winter but we will have to 'push them back' to ensure that it does not look like Chinese victory.

You have it right from Indian pov but how will it look from the Chinese pov? That too should be part of the analysis.

1. China claims that the land they have occupied moved into is their land. Infact, they never claim they trespass into others land but it is others who do mischief.

2. IFFFFF the land that they have moved into is their in view of point 1, how can they vacate it without loss of face. Where then is the question of India's loss of face?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 04:13

Rs_singh wrote:Interesting take by a former head of the DIA, reflects on lack of intelligence coordination between MHA/ITBP and MOD/IA:

https://www.thequint.com/voices/opinion ... e-military

A word about the website being discussed by some as credible source of information. It is hosted in US, registered in the Netherlands and reports on Indian news. You’ll be surprised by reading the date on which it became active and for how long. Good luck!

Edit: you can google the author and the first couple links should tell you a lot about the intentions and intended audience.

Why India Must Defend Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road At All Cost

<snip>

India will have to defend this road at all cost, as its importance lies not only along its stretch to move troops and logistics all along the Eastern Ladakh region but importantly, for any forays by the Indian troops across the Karakoram Pass towards China’s G-219 highway which links Tibet to China’s restive Xinjiang province.

More of less what I had deduced and written about in reply to @Larry Williams lament that we have nothing of importance to the Chinese to target within 100 km of the LAC.

The single most important reason China wants India out of DBO/Depsang plains and the mountain towards the Leh side of Shyok to be the final boundary. Therefore the importance of dominating DSDBO road that could then be cut off a will and therefore Galwan.
Last edited by pankajs on 01 Jul 2020 04:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby ldev » 01 Jul 2020 04:15

At Galwan India did well because it was the middle of the night and the Indian Army soldiers on the front lines took matters into their own hands. Their bosses and the politicians were fast asleep. When 16 Bihar needed help, other regiments pitched in without any formal orders. As soon as the bosses, bureaucrats and politicians woke up the next morning the front line soldiers were pulled back and the PLA pitched numerous tents on that site which they occupy to date.
Last edited by ldev on 01 Jul 2020 04:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby dsreedhar » 01 Jul 2020 04:16

China forcefully occupied Tibet and now fortifying its forces close to India's mainland and far away from its mainland. China has a land mass of 4-5 times size of India with similar population count of that of India. India with its huge population is constricted on land and has no option to ignore anymore but to save and fight for its territory. The Chinese population need to be given the message that its govt and PLA is imposing an unnecessary and high risk bound war on them.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Roop » 01 Jul 2020 04:19

NRao wrote:Throughout the world, most politicians, will shout and drown out their own people (called political opponents). But, will never be nasty to the opponents of their nation. China and her satellite nations are the only exceptions. China and they are dictatorial but focused. The rest are democratic and do not know what - on drugs?


Right, and the way things are going, I see a danger that people throughout the world are going to draw the wrong conclusions from this i.e. that democracy has failed and that "benevolent dictatorships" (which is a euphemism for totalitarian tyrannies) are the way to go. Look at the miserable mess the US is in right now (they will say), look how democracies all over the world are struggling to cope with the Corona Virus, and then look how smoothly China is sailing along -- all because they are a benevolent dictatorship (actually China is not sailing along smoothly, they have a potential huge outbreak of the virus in Beijing -- but that's a separate matter).

That is not what I'm saying, that is what I'm afraid people are thinking right now. When this sort of thinking achieves critical mass (and that is way less than 50% of the population), things look pretty bleak for freedom. People will beg for a dictator to save them from chaos and failure.

It is essential that India administer a jhapad to China, and do it publicly for all the world to see. All this mealy-mouthed whining about "their economy is bigger than ours" is worthless and irrelevant.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 04:29

When my kids were old enough to earn some money I would ask them for $10.00 - borrow. A few days later I would return $6.00. The next day I would ask them how much I owed them: well, $4.00 Dad. Nope, was my response. I gave you $6.00, so, you owe me $6.00 and you just said I owed you $4.00, so you own me $2.00.

Say that pretty fast - not allowing the child to think.

That is where India is today. China will gladly live with India thinking that China lost face by withdrawing from Fingers5-8. All the while China knows that China has occupied Aksai Chin and has lulled India into talking of some small, few sq kms of territory.

Will China want to take over DBO? They would love to I would think. But, are they really interested? Nope. All they want is India to not disrupt *any* of their plans. And, I do not even think they are really concerned about Indian infrastructure - which has been going on for 10-20 years now. Build, buy planes, armor, etc. But, use them in fly pasts. As long as Indian politicians do not act, China is just happy making some noise - for optics.

Once China consolidates her positions globally, then she will walk into DBO.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 01 Jul 2020 04:30

VinodTK wrote:What China Thinks Of Galwan Valley Clash?; Chinese Military Scholar Yun Sun Exclusive | Newstrack

Very interesting views, it is worth listening (their views on the border, GDP, and this in not 1962)

Kanwal let her off easy and went into childish mode of "this is not 62". The question should've been along the lines of how is that China has so many territorial claims on so many countries... Has it not forcefully occupied Tibet? With what face does the CCP pretend that it has rights in ladakh, when in truth it doesn't even have rights on Tibet?
Last edited by Cain Marko on 01 Jul 2020 04:39, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 04:31

RaviB wrote:
VikramS wrote:If she represents Chinese voice, it is clear that they are fixated on GDP and do not feel India can fight a war with China.

Regardless of what happens here, it should be clear that India needs to step up her industrialization game, including military and non-military.

Another aspect is that they do not think India is even in the same league; they see themselves as the only competition to the USA.

So the lack of tribute paying and recognition of a vassal status is what is bothering them.


I think someone here made the very important point that although trade with India is a very small part of China's entire trade, the surplus of 50 billion $ is 13.5% of China's total trade surplus. So China would be worried about losing that surplus. That also explains why it has done absolutely nothing to redress the trade surplus.

Coming to the current standoff, I think what they want is to force India to agree to a buffer zone / no man's land in Ladakh and an end to patrolling. They are highly unlikely to get it but that's what they wanted to achieve by starting a war. Chumar would be the precedent they are working with, but now they have a Doklam redux on their hands. I think we won't see a war this year but hopefully the lesson is learnt and we start preparing for one in two years.

Not just the current trade surplus but with India taking its rightful position, India will become one of the biggest market in 2-3 decades. A right thinking Chinese would be more worried about that.

BTW, one article I recently read, Chinese seem to endorse my personal belief about economy & power. No matter how much we screw up on policy, if we hold together as a nation, sooner or later India would be on of the most powerful country in the world economically and politically just based on the population assuming equal distribution of brain power across large population.

This article too seemed to suggest that the Chinese are weary of a future India based on the above logic and working to impose their version of the border on India before the power differential begins to shrink. The article was very ordinary except for the above nugget hence I don't even recall the publication!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Roop » 01 Jul 2020 04:35

ldev wrote:At Galwan India did well because it was the middle of the night and the Indian Army soldiers on the front lines took matters into their own hands. Their bosses and the politicians were fast asleep. When 16 Bihar needed help, other regiments pitched in without any formal orders.


True.

As soon as the bosses, bureaucrats and politicians woke up the next morning the front line soldiers were pulled back and the PLA pitched numerous tents on that site which they occupy to date.


Sad, but true. Actually, it is still hazy and unclear as to where exactly those Chinese tents are, but your statement is true in the public perception, and in politics, perception is everything. If the people think that the fauj can fight the Chinese but the NBM (neta / babu / mantris) are sh|t-scared of the Chinese and thus holding the fauj back, then the people themselves will start to conclude (and more importantly, India's friends and neighbours will start to conclude) that being sh|t-scared of China is the right way to be.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 04:39

rajpa wrote:


It is interesting that Chinese spokesperson mentioned the legal rights of Chinese investors. They are probably worried that AliBaba, Tencent etc may suffer a huge rout in the stockmarkets etc if India sorta makes their equity stakes in PayTM etc null and void or something of the sort that the Chinese govt would not hesitate to do. It would indeed be a huge problem for them if earlier Chinese investment in India is somehow forced to be sold to a non Chinese entity.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 601031.cms
Modi's amended enemy property law gives jitters to China

Law exists to do that exactly

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Cain Marko » 01 Jul 2020 04:46

This is a superb opportunity for modi to truly buff up India's military and economy. Now is the time to pass an emergency stimulus of $100 billion for local MIC products and infrastructure, from investments into production of LCA, lch, Arjun to pad/aad and Astra. A good chunk to developmental products. And a smallish but necessary amount to imports....

Nobody can complain, at least politically. Afterall national security is something all parties concur on, unless they want to seem treacherous to a very nationalistic population.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 04:53

^^^^^

That is design and manufacturing.

Using?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby RaviB » 01 Jul 2020 04:53

NRao wrote:<snip>
This 2015 book provides an insight into what China would like to accomplish by 2049 (I do not care about the significance of 2049, so please do not ask why 49 and not 51 or 48). China wants to and plans on dominating in every aspect of everything. To support that China's GDP (yes, that silly acronym again) will be greater than of the US (India, by then, may leap the US too)
<snip>


This is a fantastic post Sirji!

I completely agree with your points.

I know you don't care about this but the logic of 2049:

The China Dream promoted by GEISHA Xi consists of 2 centenaries. The first one is in 2021, when China is supposed to become a well-off society. That's the 100th anniversary of the CCP. The second centenary in 2049 is the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the PRC, by which China is supposed to become numbah wan.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pankajs » 01 Jul 2020 04:54

ldev wrote:I have said earlier on this thread, the only way to win this war with China is to pick your own theater to escalate. Right now the PLA goes to Galwan, the IA beefs up there, they go to Pangong Tso the IA follows, they go to Depsang Plains the IA follows, tomorrow they will push into Arunachal Pradesh, the IA will reinforce there. This is being defensive to a fault.

So pick your theater. Make it oil, China's strategic oil reserves and maritime interdiction of their oil tankers. Destroy their strategic oil reserves which have a capacity of 80 days consumption and interdict China bound oil tankers off the Cochin coast. That will do 2 things. One, it will destroy China's mobility, both for civilian as well as military infrastructure immediately. And two, it will ensure that China throws everything that it has militarily at India short of a nuclear strike. Other countries will join in when India has done the heavy lifting. This will then be a terminal war as you have said.

1. Our PM is not ready to occupy the vacated PP-14 and you expect him to launch a volley of missiles to target China's strategic oil reserves?

2. Our PM is not ready to make it a fight on the LAC and you expect him to interdict China bound oil tankers off the coast of India?

3. IFFFFF missiles come into play, do you believe we can throw more missiles and ordinance at China than China can throw at India?

4. I am not an expert BUT I think such facilities are usually are caves in hard rock formations. Do you believe conventionally armed Cruise missiles will do the job? Last I heard, Tomahawk type had warhead of about 1k pounds.

5. Do we have sufficient # of sufficient range?

To me the above scenario looks highly improbably all things considered.
Last edited by pankajs on 01 Jul 2020 05:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Philip » 01 Jul 2020 04:56

Nyet,I hav not yet got my admiral's stars as yet.Citizen Filipov perhaps would be more in tune,like the French.There is only one Adm. here,Adm.Raks,who has yet to share out the Akula mithai!

No seriously,I'm not laughing at the DM's requests for urgent Ru milware,the issue is too serious.Why do we always resort to knee-jerk ,firefighting when the crap is flying around? On China,BRF has been so far ahead of the curve,making a mockery of the ostriches and mice of the MEA who have wittingly led us into this crisis. Appeasement of China has been the cornerstone of our " Look East" foreign policy.

There has been an intel failure too.A timely warning even 3 months earlier with all the sat imagery available would've helped us to bolster forces earlier and take precautionary measures. China has been building up its infra,etc. for far longer than just a few months. It has taken a leaf out of Gen.Bandicoot's Kargil diaries sitting pretty in a few areas,refusing to leave.There is little option but to either throw them out or seize their territory on land and at sea( tankers and MVs) while also taking dpl. and economic measures to punish it.
,to make them retreat.

This triple attack of pressure of military,diplomatic and economic measures must go on relentlessly.Every day should bring with it news of more sanctions,cancelled contracts,opening dialogue with the Taiwanese,Tibetans,Quad,et al, to show the dastardly Chins what further all-round punishment is in store for them . There must either retreat in the Himalayas,or lose face.India recognising Taiwan will be such a colossal loss of face for China that fuhrer XI will face his own Stuff-in-bird Beijing duck,aka "duck a la bombe" moment of truth. His enemies in the CCP will be ready with the carving knives. Even seizure of Chin maritime territory,its tankers and MVs,denying them transit of the chokepoints, a cordon sanitaire of H'tota and Colombo for Chin flagged vessels, will cause havoc with its BRI ,string of pearls gambit.

On the critical mil. acquisition front, we must build up our forces relentlessly,but have the patience of the vulture. We need apart from Ru. aircraft,deliveries and operationalising our Rafales,plus large stocks of affordable PGMs,expensive AAMs and ASMs,even some qty. of BMos AAM which has been successfully tested for Chin AWACS in particular. Each service will have its priorities.I for one would like to see the quick lease of Kilo subs- easiest to induct ,and another Akula leased asap until our custom- modernised boat arrives in a few years time. 2 or 3 subs arriving in 6 months time will hugely improve our UW capability against the Chins. Along with the subs,the fastest way in which to dominate the IOR would be leasing of Backfires,even Bears if need be,carrying LR ASMs like BMos,Kalibir,KH series,etc. ASW and other naval helos another must,we are woefully short of them.

Our strategy for now must be to stand firm,deny any further ingress by the Chins and aim to cause as many casualties on their side, more effective than taking back a few metres of barren rock and snow. Where we are really lacking right now is in the propaganda dept. During Kargil we had excellent daily briefing by an MOD spokesman and there was little opacity of the situ,which alas,is not the case today.The IA and not the MEA should brief the nation regularly ,content with the approval of the Army HQ and the MOD.Pvt.TV channels with their multitude of "experts" are adding to the confusion.

Where we can really score is in causing doubts and dissension in the minds of the Chin troops in Tibet.Thus far Beijing has not revealed their casualties,NOT given their dead a military farewell,causing much angst in the families of the affected. This surely must be in the minds of the Chin troops,being used as mete cannon fodder. We should broadcast and bombard them with leaflets using mortars,balloons,and loudspeakers, saying that their political bosses are letting them down,insulted them with no mil. honour funerals- and funerals are v.important to the Chins. They should be warned that their bodies will forever lie on foreign Indian soil,their families never see their bodies again,etc.,etc. Radio and TV broadcasts and telecasts using fluent mandarin speaking Indians ,Tibetans or even Taiwanese Chinese, just as RT uses western experts and anchors,. In WW2 the Germans were v.affective sowing dissension using " Lord Haw- Haw", US born Brit William Joyce to broadcast Nazi propaganda to the British Isles.The CIA used Radio Free Europe against the USSR during the Cold War. I see India Today channel using anti- China Gordon Chang a lot in interviews,etc. where he v.effectively has exposed the fault lines in the Chin empire. Our pvt. channels would do v.well on their part to invite Taiwanese experts and sr. govt. officials as guests on their programmes.
"China-QUIT INDIA " should be our mantra.

PS: The Chin troops should also be told that all Chin prisoners will be handed over for interrogation to a special squad from the Tamil Nadu Police!
Last edited by Philip on 01 Jul 2020 05:11, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 05:00

India’s app ban threatens China’s rise as a global tech power

Bloomberg!!!!

If India finds a way to carry out that threat, it may present a model for other countries from Europe to Southeast Asia that seek to curtail the pervasiveness of apps like ByteDance Ltd.’s TikTok while safeguarding their citizens’ enormously valuable data.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 05:06

RaviB wrote:
I know you don't care about this but the logic of 2049:

The China Dream promoted by GEISHA Xi consists of 2 centenaries. The first one is in 2021, when China is supposed to become a well-off society. That's the 100th anniversary of the CCP. The second centenary in 2049 is the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the PRC, by which China is supposed to become numbah wan.


Thanks.

I do care. I am fairly active within the US SenatorS, my Congressman (on the political, economic front) community and do tangle with the military, although I listen a lot, lot more than I talk. But, all within the US. Having said that I am more interested in actions - with emphasis on 'what have we done'. So, naturally, I have to listen to as many views and read analysis as possible, before I can think of an action.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby SriKumar » 01 Jul 2020 05:16

Report that China forcibly sterilizing Uighur women 'shocking,' (Secretary of state) Pompeo says

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/repo ... s-n1232500

I've heard from atleast a coupe of sources who said that Tibetian women were forcibly sterilized when Chinese troops took over Tibet in the 50's (?). Looks like not much has changed since then.


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 07:04

At last!!!!

Explained Ideas: Why a successful Indian resistance to China’s expansionism would redefine Asia’s geopolitics

Essentially what I said a weekish ago.

But if Delhi comes out of this crisis wounded, its troubles at home and the world will mount significantly, argues C Rajamohan

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 07:08

Alliance, not an option?

India’s Dreams Of Being Next China Hit Trumpian Nightmare

As Chinese and Indian soldiers face off on the roof of the world, there’s a bigger casualty worth contemplating: the death knell of “Chindia.”

In theory, leaders Xi Jinping of China and Narendra Modi of India could still join forces. The idea of Asia’s No. 1 and No. 3 economies cooperating more than they brawl has been a dream of statesmen dating back to Jawaharlal Nehru, India's founding prime minister. It got renewed traction in the early 2000s, when China’s Hu Jintao and India’s Manmohan Singh reigned. Chindia was in the air in 2018 when Xi and Modi held extended talks.

Such dreams came crashing down this month after the first deadly clash between to two most populous nations in decades. It left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead (mainland troop losses aren’t known) on the Tibetan plateau, putting governments on a war footing. It also led to a series of moves sure to negatively affect economic links at the worst moment possible.

............................

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 07:09


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 07:12

Ah. The final solution.

Chinese Inscribe Huge Symbol, Map Onto Disputed Territory In Pangong

In a claim to disputed territory, Chinese forces in the contested Fingers region of Ladakh's Pangong Lake have inscribed a massive Mandarin symbol and map of China onto the ground they occupy.

The inscriptions, located between 'Finger 4' and 'Finger 5' measure approximately 81 metres in length and 25 metres in breadth and are large enough to be clearly spotted by passing imagery satellites. Earlier this week, Wang Hajiang, the overall commander of Chinese forces in Tibet was photographed repainting the character of 'China' in a frontier position along the India-China boundary.

.......................


More talks to follow.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 07:18

Image of the above topic (that I believe is at Finger 5):

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 08:23

Explained Ideas: Why India can’t depend on the US and EU to counter China

The border stand-off with China has made it crucial for India to rethink all its strategic options. Can it use the growing anti-China sentiment across the world to its advantage? The moment seems ripe, writes Pratap Bhanu Mehta, contributing editor, The Indian Express, in his latest column. “The degree of global alienation with the Xi Jinping regime is unprecedented. But can this be translated into concerted global action to exert real pressure on China?”

Many strategic experts are salivating at the prospect of India deepening its alliance with the US. In reality, India’s options may be limited, Mehta points out.

“It is an odd moment in global affairs, where there is recognition of a common challenge emanating from China, but no global appetite to take concerted action.”

Look at the global response to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). “Many countries are struggling to meet their BRI debt obligations. Many Chinese loans have become a millstone around the debtor countries’ necks. But it is difficult to see the rest of the international community helping all these countries to wean their regimes away from dependence on Chinese finance. Similarly, there are now great concerns over frontier areas of conflict like cyber security and space,” Mehta writes.

But why is that?

“International relations”, Mehta says, “are formed in the context of a country’s development paradigm”. The US-China relationship for example, may have had its origins in the strategic attempt to create a Sino-Soviet split, “but for decades, this relationship was sustained not by a strategic logic, but by the logic of the political economy of development in both the US and China, where they reciprocally depended on each other”. This US-China arrangement largely benefitted big businesses in America at the expense of its own domestic manufacturing base.

But the political legitimacy of this development model has waned in recent years.

The question before India is whether its development needs will fit into the emerging US development paradigm. That is, “Will a US hell-bent on bringing manufacturing jobs back to the US, easily gel with an “atma nirbhar” Bharat?”

Mehta concludes: “We are in a paradoxical world where the strategic necessity of the rest of the world to come together on China has never been higher; yet the appetite for concerted action has never been weaker. Fundamentally, few countries are going to put their money where their mouth is.” :rotfl: {No Quad. BUT, BRICS/RIC will be kept alive because China says so.}

The efforts of the international community will therefore be to try and throw cold water on the India-China conflict as “no one has a serious stake in the fate of the terrain India and China are disputing”.

At the end of the day, Mehta underlines, “India has to manage China and Pakistan largely on its own.”

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby bharathp » 01 Jul 2020 08:29

NRao wrote:Image of the above topic (that I believe is at Finger 5):

Image


will be hugely satisfying to clear that map out now.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 08:32

Before you think of clearing that map, here is the first salvo from chine. No text beyond the title.

India-China standoff updates: Banning apps violates WTO rules, says Chinese Embassy

That statement was made on Indian soil. And, not in Ladakh or J&K, etc.

China has gamed this extremely well. Enough said.

Real stuff, ground reality. No analysis.
Last edited by NRao on 01 Jul 2020 08:39, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 01 Jul 2020 08:39

NRao wrote:Before you think of clearing that map, here is the first salvo from chine. No text beyond the title.

India-China standoff updates: Banning apps violates WTO rules, says Chinese Embassy

That was made on Indian soil.

China has gamed this extremely well. Enough said.

Real stuff, ground reality. No analysis.


I call BS on that. When China can ban FB, Twitter & other apps and when India does something similar, then they cannot run crying WTO WTO.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby skumar » 01 Jul 2020 08:43

VinodTK wrote:What China Thinks Of Galwan Valley Clash?; Chinese Military Scholar Yun Sun Exclusive | Newstrack

Very interesting views, it is worth listening (their views on the border, GDP, and this in not 1962)

I hope Rahul Kanwal had the sense to ask 2 questions to points repeatedly raised by Yun Sun.

1. If China believes it is responding to Indian infrastructure buildup on what it claims is Chinese territory but does not control now, how should India react to China building the CPEC corridor through territory claimed by India?

2. If wars were all about GDP math, how was China forced to withdraw in the clash with Vietnam in 1979?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 08:46

Sanju wrote:I call BS on that. When China can ban FB, Twitter & other apps and when India does something similar, then they cannot run crying WTO WTO.

That is exactly what China wants. Talk about WTO, banning apps. And, forget about Finger 5-8. So, by implication, India concedes Finger 5-8.

Just the way constantly talking about Finger 5-8 lost "Aksai Chin".

Here on out Indians will analyze and talk the crap out of 'banning apps' and 'WTO'.

There is a dire need to refocus on 'Aksai Chin'.

Indians need to take back 'Aksai Chin'.

Who the F cares about apps and WTO?

This is a GREAT moment for Indians to lead.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby NRao » 01 Jul 2020 08:58

skumar wrote:I hope Rahul Kanwal had the sense to ask 2 questions to points repeatedly raised by Yun Sun.

1. If China believes it is responding to Indian infrastructure buildup on what it claims is Chinese territory but does not control now, how should India react to China building the CPEC corridor through territory claimed by India?

2. If wars were all about GDP math, how was China forced to withdraw in the clash with Vietnam in 1979?

OK, Rahul did not have the sense.

India has lost Finger 5-8. China has painted/whatever a map of China and something in Mandarin at Finger 5.

Can we please talk about how to get that back?

India, IMHO, is alone.

France has got her billions. So too Russia. Those are done deals, not going to benefit India at the moment.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby AshishAcharya » 01 Jul 2020 09:02

NRao wrote:
Sanju wrote:I call BS on that. When China can ban FB, Twitter & other apps and when India does something similar, then they cannot run crying WTO WTO.

That is exactly what China wants. Talk about WTO, banning apps. And, forget about Finger 5-8. So, by implication, India concedes Finger 5-8.

Just the way constantly talking about Finger 5-8 lost "Aksai Chin".

Here on out Indians will analyze and talk the crap out of 'banning apps' and 'WTO'.

There is a dire need to refocus on 'Aksai Chin'.

Indians need to take back 'Aksai Chin'.

Who the F cares about apps and WTO?

This is a GREAT moment for Indians to lead.

We have to first remove them forcibly from the fingers right? Or do we target Aksai Chin first?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Sanju » 01 Jul 2020 09:04

NRao wrote:
Sanju wrote:
I call BS on that. When China can ban FB, Twitter & other apps and when India does something similar, then they cannot run crying WTO WTO.
That is exactly what China wants. Talk about WTO, banning apps. And, forget about Finger 5-8. So, by implication, India concedes Finger 5-8.

Just the way constantly talking about Finger 5-8 lost "Aksai Chin".

Here on out Indians will analyze and talk the crap out of 'banning apps' and 'WTO'.

There is a dire need to refocus on 'Aksai Chin'.

Indians need to take back 'Aksai Chin'.

Who the F cares about apps and WTO?

This is a GREAT moment for Indians to lead.

What makes you think that India's focus is not on Aksai Chin or rather that India has lost focus on AC? Are you aware of something that isn't in Public Domain?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Rakesh » 01 Jul 2020 09:17

NRao wrote:Who the F cares about apps and WTO?

You know the rules. No offensive language permitted.

Banned for two weeks.

NRao wrote:That statement was made on Indian soil. And, not in Ladakh or J&K, etc.

If you are unaware that Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir belong to India, then why are you here?

Ban extended to now three months! Do learn some geography in that time.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby skumar » 01 Jul 2020 09:21

NRao wrote:
<Snip>

OK, Rahul did not have the sense.

India has lost Finger 5-8. China has painted/whatever a map of China and something in Mandarin at Finger 5.

India never "had" Finger 5-8 to lose it, sending a patrol party every week/day does not mean you had it. Now China definitely has it and they did extend their LAC.

NRao wrote:Can we please talk about how to get that back?

The border is long and remote, we should do exactly what the Chinese have done at another location and then offer to negotiate. This would keep the Chinese guessing.

NRao wrote:India, IMHO, is alone.

Agree, begaane ki shaadi mein US aur Aus diwaana.

Unfortunately this is where our leadership has shown a weak hand. Running to Russia to request fighters at this point shows desperation - if we had to do that now, someone at the top should have been fired (DM). As stupid as reducing defense spend as a % of GDP since 2014 (this should be on Modi). Not doing that would have allowed us to develop our MIC.

Other points (OT sorry) -
1. Choice of N Sitharaman as DM was stupid. If it was not for Parrikar, not sure if Tejas would have been ready to be ordered even today.
2. The whip has to be used to refocus on Indian MIC, there has been lot of talk without walk about AtmaNirbhar. We have people like Kalyani, orgs like L&T which have been wasted.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby pushkar.bhat » 01 Jul 2020 09:39

For the last many years the government had more or less reached the conclusion that India will be forced to fight a war with China. The question is not if but when, the events of the past few days have brought this reality to the people. So now its is important that we publicly size the enemy and prepare for the war to come.

Let's remember that China is the second largest economy in the world, it therefore also has more resources at its disposal. India therefore will have to fight this battle with not just might and muscle but also with trick in the book of overt and covert diplomacy. This could include tacit and explicit support to ethnic groups who want to separate from china and full diplomatic recognition to Taiwan.

Now since we are battling the 2nd largest economy in the world we will also have to develop our economic muscle and this will mean significant economic reforms plus development of capacity in field of precision and complex manufacturing has to be undertaken. We will infact have to democratise some of these capabilities to the extent that they become standards for all industries. We need to ensure that growth rates for the economy are at double digit and every government functionary is in alignment be it central or state since this is a preparation for war.

Second, we have not invested into the armed forces for a very long time. Time to get the Min of Finance babus off the tap with regards to MoD capital goods procurement. also lets get the Revised DPR's working for heavens sake. IAF needs its 42+6 fighter sqns, Navy needs its force projection capabilities into SCS and IOR, Army needs to build war and attrition reserves for its arty, infantry, armour and also now create and staff the second MSC. If defence capital expenses need to touch 8-10% of annual union budget so be it. If states need to give up on some of their GST share to make it happen, then we need to ensure that it's done expeditiously. Cyber warfare will be critical in this new war with china so lets rope in the amazing it talent pool and start making life miserable for china on a daily basis. And yes this will require us to tell PayTM and Zomato that they will have to depend on Bharat Ma and not Jack Ma.

Third, Telecom and Power are a mess with equipment from China sitting all over the place. Ma'am Sitaraman needs to give these sectors a 100% depreciation benefit for replacing this material with indigenous or western equipment. Huawei and ZTE should be called out as PLAAF affiliates and no imports or installation of their equipment should be allowed in our telecom sector. same with the power utilities sector. Tell all the operators that they have 2 years to plan and sunset the Chinese equipment from their networks or risk loosing their operations license.

Fourth, API's industry in India was killed in the late 90's and early 2000's by dumping from china. I saw and experienced this personally. OPPI needs to get domestic API manufacturing up and running again. This will take time but can realistically be achieved in a few years.

White goods is a great opportunity for Indian manufacturing. Lets bring some crazy subsidies to this sector and make it viable. We should follow a policy of delaying tactics at WTO if China screams. Keep the sales domestically focused till we get the volumes and economies of scale and then unleash it on China.

On Defence manufacturing it is heartening to see that when we were pushed to the wall we deployed new weapon systems to the Tibet theatre. We need to speed up induction of indigenous systems. Induction at scale and volume will be critical.

In the high tech areas we need to create alliances that make it easier for allies like USA, France, Germany, Taiwan and Japan to become more cost effective vis-a-vis the Chinese.

Let's also get the kid gloves off when it comes to support for Tibet, Uiguars and Kachin people. They need to be supported both emotionally, diplomatically, tactically, monetarily and militarily. No Molly cuddling of China any more. Diplomatically make life difficult for the Chinese at very step.

Beating china at its game will be not just a full government initiative it will require a full government and all people effort and its time this is done. India needs to mobilise with the assumption that we will be forced into a war by China and prepare and arm accordingly.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

Postby Raveen » 01 Jul 2020 09:47

skumar wrote:
NRao wrote:
<Snip>

OK, Rahul did not have the sense.

India has lost Finger 5-8. China has painted/whatever a map of China and something in Mandarin at Finger 5.

India never "had" Finger 5-8 to lose it, sending a patrol party every week/day does not mean you had it. Now China definitely has it and they did extend their LAC.

NRao wrote:Can we please talk about how to get that back?

The border is long and remote, we should do exactly what the Chinese have done at another location and then offer to negotiate. This would keep the Chinese guessing.

NRao wrote:India, IMHO, is alone.

Agree, begaane ki shaadi mein US aur Aus diwaana.

Unfortunately this is where our leadership has shown a weak hand. Running to Russia to request fighters at this point shows desperation - if we had to do that now, someone at the top should have been fired (DM). As stupid as reducing defense spend as a % of GDP since 2014 (this should be on Modi). Not doing that would have allowed us to develop our MIC.

Other points (OT sorry) -
1. Choice of N Sitharaman as DM was stupid. If it was not for Parrikar, not sure if Tejas would have been ready to be ordered even today.
2. The whip has to be used to refocus on Indian MIC, there has been lot of talk without walk about AtmaNirbhar. We have people like Kalyani, orgs like L&T which have been wasted.


For the 1000th time, the deal on the planes was closed last year and RS's visit was agreed to before this drama. As much as you want to paint our leadership in a negative light your assertions are made up.


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