India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby RKumar » 13 Apr 2021 13:52

Prem Kumar wrote:I am happy if there is constant tension @ the LAC. That will mean more indigenous weapon systems testing by DRDO & ordering by the MoD/Forces. We need a little, constant fire under our asses all the time to not fall into chai-biskoot habits or indulge in import-fetishes


+108 sir!

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Apr 2021 14:00

In a way it will allow the Chinese to quit while they are ahead and utimately like the Pakis lead to their downfall

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 13 Apr 2021 20:22

Ready for a hot summer.

IAF brass to discuss operational strategies amidst continuing military confrontation with China
For now, China has not lessened the deployment of its soldiers, heavy weaponry or missiles along the contentious Line of Actual Control (LAC). Chinese PLAAF airbases continue to have additional deployments of aircraft and fighter jets near the Indian border,” TOI quoted another officer.


There is a wind blowing in India's way... If GOI is smart they can exploit the advantage.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby csharma » 14 Apr 2021 07:43

China thinks they can coerce India into abandoning the quad.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nandakumar » 14 Apr 2021 09:23

Aditya_V wrote:In a way it will allow the Chinese to quit while they are ahead and utimately like the Pakis lead to their downfall

Aditya_V
Can you explain this point in greater detail? I tried linking it to earlier posts but couldn't make the connection.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby YashG » 14 Apr 2021 11:51

A close observation of ww2 events give a very amazing understanding into chinese actions. Perhaps China seems like ww2 germany playing ww2 as a cold wat over an extended period of 20 years. In 1941 hitler wanted to attack UK across the channel but his forces werent ready, so he went east. Germany felt ussr will attack them no matter what as ussr was growing. In 41 they felt instead of allowing ussr to grow strong they should attack now. Inspite of machinery superiority, when it came man to man in a different terrain - we know what happened. US was an external factor.


China wants to attack taiwan too across the channel but thinks india would be antagonistic anyways and therefore should be attacked. In himalayan terrain indians can do the same what russians did.

Indeed the german economy while powerful had nagging issues like lack of oil resources and internal power struggles that lead to germans going east. Chinese probably know going west is dangerous but they have some nagging economic issues too and in the end they mayn't have much choice.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Aditya_V » 14 Apr 2021 14:52

nandakumar wrote:
Aditya_V wrote:In a way it will allow the Chinese to quit while they are ahead and utimately like the Pakis lead to their downfall

Aditya_V
Can you explain this point in greater detail? I tried linking it to earlier posts but couldn't make the connection.


We have only started our Infrastructure building and getting our deterrence is in place, many of our weapons programs and civilian industry are catching up, The Chinese hold our 48K square kilometers, I am sure in 20 years time the balance will be much more in our favour, things have moved much more in our favour since say 1999 where they could walk in during Kargil and we were too busy throwing the Pakis out.

The Chinese basically hold Aksai Chin and have what they want- an intelligent person would agree at this juncture, but like the Pakis,Nazis and Imperial Japan they will on keep pushing it by needling us and trying to show who is boss till everything is lost.

They are playing All or nothing game, a series of gambles, they have border disputes with all their neighbors- why? cause they keep wanting more and from interaction they seem to believe in race theories like the Pakis some belive Caucasians are superior and Dark Asians are inferior- we Indians are also guilty many times with respect to Africans in that respect. This will play out till it breaks. They have huge respect for Soko- Japan, so they will not attack them but keep needling them with North Korea, Russia they are again careful- CAR states, Nepal have all given up whatever the Chinese have asked out of fear.

Right now the easy targets they are us, Taiwan and the Philipines, Malaysia, Indonasia if they dare challenge the Chinese 9 dash line. Vietnam again they are bit vary.

The Chinese are probing us- India(Chinese seem to have racial theories they have experienced the Pakis, Nepal, BD and SL really easy pushovers and gave them whatever they asked- so in thier minds we are like our neighbours- easy pushovers), Philipines- they don't see any military capability or Taiwan they think they are their people who should be governed by the Party. They will attack one of these 3 if they think they can get away with it.

I some how see them attacking Philippines Navy and capturing their Islands - teaching them a lesson, that will be the beginning of a series of military conflicts by China.

The Big powers will not get involved in the first few conflicts- they will involve themselves only if the Chinese push too far.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby LakshmanPST » 14 Apr 2021 14:55

YashG wrote:A close observation of ww2 events give a very amazing understanding into chinese actions. Perhaps China seems like ww2 germany playing ww2 as a cold war over an extended period of 20 years. In 1941 hitler wanted to attack UK across the channel but his forces werent ready, so he went east. Germany felt ussr will attack them no matter what as ussr was growing. In 41 they felt instead of allowing ussr to grow strong they should attack now. Inspite of machinery superiority, when it came man to man in a different terrain - we know what happened. US was an external factor.

China wants to attack taiwan too across the channel but thinks india would be antagonistic anyways and therefore should be attacked. In himalayan terrain indians can do the same what russians did.


This analogy is correct in some ways... But wrong in other ways...
Right now, China has three major active disputes where the disputed territory is not in their control...
1) Taiwan
2) Shenkaku Islands with Japan
3) Arunachal Pradesh with India

I guess Xi Jinping probably want to see occupation of atleast one of these territories in his lifetime and leave a mark...
-
Japan is a strong opponent in itself and has a treaty with USA... So, it is less likely to attack Japan...
-
Taiwan is a far more emotional issue with the Chinese compared to other two... It is seen as the unfinished job of the CCP... The sheer superiority in numbers is enough to defeat Taiwan...
USA does not have a military treaty with Taiwan... To what extent they'll defend Taiwan in case of an invasion is doubtful...
So, comparing it with 1940s UK, which had a huge Army, Navy and Air Force by itself is not correct unless you factor in USA actively defending Taiwan...
-
Coming to comparision between India and USSR, the main reason why Germany went East was for Caucasian Oil resources... But India does not have any substantial resources which China does not have...
So, China would attack India only for H&D purposes and nothing else...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby YashG » 14 Apr 2021 15:31

LakshmanPST wrote:This analogy is correct in some ways... But wrong in other ways...

Coming to comparision between India and USSR, the main reason why Germany went East was for Caucasian Oil resources... But India does not have any substantial resources which China does not have...
So, China would attack India only for H&D purposes and nothing else...


Agreed, similarity is only in parts.

Hitler could have reached an armistice on western front and atleast a temporary truce on eastern front; Plots to assassinate Hitler were afoot as early as 1940; His successor probably Himmler might've supported the truce but he Nazi party's vitriolic nationalism would've continued. Nazi party's vitriolic nationalism that hitler had unleashed was like riding a tiger. You cannot get down. Their nationalism alluded to same historical injustice done to Germany through treaty of Versailles that CCP keeps on invoking for Chinese century of humiliation.

CCP is on a similar tiger. Therefore the situation in which CCP finds itself - more so Xitler - there is no going back from here. Therefor continuous arming of South Asia is inevitable. War is inevitable too.

----

Oil was German economy's weakness but so was supply of other resources, just not as big. Export & Real estate dependent growth is Chinese economy's problems. BRI and Access to investment globally is what Chinese need too in order to continue the growth. So like WW2 Germany, what the chinese economy needs is newer markets for its industrial output and ability to invest abroad to continue its growth - kind of things that China is finding tough to do. India is a good market and source for cheap resources.

-----
Taiwan is not just emotional issue - Indeed Chinese are lagging in semi-conductor industry & Taiwan boasts of some of the largest semi-conductor companies. PRC's schemes to uproot Taiwanese semicon engineers to create companies in China hasnt worked. If anything, US has become super focused on restricting semicon supply to China. Safeguarding taiwan will be crucial to keep china away from semicon industry. So while its not sure if US would come into fray in Chn-Taiwan tiff but increasingly its an economic issue. Semicon is like oil for digital economy.

-----
Also in face of the rise of Nazi party in Germany, the world did react. As far as back in 1929, France was building maginot line as possible defence against Germany. In 1926, Germany was already breaching Versailles treaty & Rearming just like China is breaching UN Sea Law treaties & Arming South China Sea. But as then as now - World reacted too slowly to Nazi Germany - Just like today the world is reacting too slowly to CCP China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 15 Apr 2021 21:22

csharma wrote:China thinks they can coerce India into abandoning the quad.


Biden will be more successful with his FONOPS in Lakshadweep.
This type of cat and mouse games are not sustainable.
Need a breakout gamechanger to stop this four-year blow hot blow cold.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 15 Apr 2021 21:24

LakshmanPST wrote:
YashG wrote:A close observation of ww2 events give a very amazing understanding into chinese actions. Perhaps China seems like ww2 germany playing ww2 as a cold war over an extended period of 20 years. In 1941 hitler wanted to attack UK across the channel but his forces werent ready, so he went east. Germany felt ussr will attack them no matter what as ussr was growing. In 41 they felt instead of allowing ussr to grow strong they should attack now. Inspite of machinery superiority, when it came man to man in a different terrain - we know what happened. US was an external factor.

China wants to attack taiwan too across the channel but thinks india would be antagonistic anyways and therefore should be attacked. In himalayan terrain indians can do the same what russians did.


This analogy is correct in some ways... But wrong in other ways...
Right now, China has three major active disputes where the disputed territory is not in their control...
1) Taiwan
2) Shenkaku Islands with Japan
3) Arunachal Pradesh with India

I guess Xi Jinping probably want to see occupation of atleast one of these territories in his lifetime and leave a mark...
-
Japan is a strong opponent in itself and has a treaty with USA... So, it is less likely to attack Japan...
-
Taiwan is a far more emotional issue with the Chinese compared to other two... It is seen as the unfinished job of the CCP... The sheer superiority in numbers is enough to defeat Taiwan...
USA does not have a military treaty with Taiwan... To what extent they'll defend Taiwan in case of an invasion is doubtful...
So, comparing it with 1940s UK, which had a huge Army, Navy and Air Force by itself is not correct unless you factor in USA actively defending Taiwan...
-
Coming to the comparison between India and USSR, the main reason why Germany went East was for Caucasian Oil resources... But India does not have any substantial resources which China does not have...
So, China would attack India only for H&D purposes and nothing else...


Not just H&D but to finish of a strategic competitor in India.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby csharma » 16 Apr 2021 04:44

Things are pretty bad with China. CDS is openly saying they are trying to coerce India. He even said that they attacked India’s electric grid.

I think it is quite likely the standoff will continue for some time. It might even get hot.

China wants to show they are the boss.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/indianexpr ... 4898/lite/

Rawat said that China feels that “they have arrived, they have a superior armed force, because of the tech advances that they have”. China, he said, has been “able to create disruptive technologies which can paralyse systems of the adversary” which is why, “they feel just by doing a little bit of shove and push, they will be able to compel nations to give in to their demands”.
“They have tried to ensure that they can change the status quo by the use of disruptive technology, without using force. As of now they have not used force. They thought that India as a nation will succumb to the pressures that they are putting on us, because of the tech advances that they have.” Rawat said.




https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.scmp.c ... ia-through

China tried to wage ‘undeclared war’ against India through, New Delhi’s military chief says

General Bipin Rawat, speaking at the Raisina Dialogue, says China’s creation of ‘disruptive technologies’ has emboldened Beijing and made it assertive





India is now openly talking against China. This posture of India i.e. aligning with Quad seems permanent

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 16 Apr 2021 06:31

I will let Hari Nair and other military types opine but 2020 Galwan and subsequent standoff showed that the China threat is over.
They need to bring in much more forces and risk losing their perch. Due to terrain, Indian forces deployment etc.
They tried a lot without declaring war, salami nibbling., slicing, etc.
See how IAF is now planning to modernize the IL-76 fleet with better engines and avionics. Adds 15 more years of service life.
Earlier had deferred it due to easy access to C-17s.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby nandakumar » 16 Apr 2021 07:40

In the Raisina Dialogue show, General Rawat repeatedly says Chinese technology having emboldened them. What is the 'disruptive' technology that China has developed?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 16 Apr 2021 08:03

This year's Raisina Dialaogues event is a watershed in Indian diplomacy.

CDS Rawat's statements must not be seen in isolation because EAM Jaishankar had already said that the narrow region of 'Indian Interests' being only from the Gulf of Aden to Melakka Straits is wrong because historically our area of interest has been from the Mediterranean to the Western Pacific. He clearly articulated that with the defraying of plurilateral and bilateral arrangements, the QUAD was very essential. He made these statements in a panel with the French & Aussie FMs who concurred with him. Of course, the PM had already said that the QUAD had arrived.

Then, it was the turn of the Naval Chief, who along with the INDOPACCOM chief of the USN said that the QUAD navies have achieved high interoperability and can undertake joint operations if the situation demanded.

Then, the CDS made all those statements quoted above. His two other panelists, the Chief of JSDF and the Aussie Chief, for their part, slammed the Chinese and called out their tactics.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby V_Raman » 16 Apr 2021 08:28

I am still not able to wrap my head around this aggressive Freedom of Navigation assertions by USNavy and subsequent climbing down. Is someone trying to sabotage QUAD from within USG?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby hnair » 16 Apr 2021 08:51

V_Raman wrote:I am still not able to wrap my head around this aggressive Freedom of Navigation assertions by USNavy and subsequent climbing down. Is someone trying to sabotage QUAD from within USG?


Yes

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby csharma » 16 Apr 2021 09:49

Absolutely. India's foreign policy seems to have changed in a big way given the statements of Dr Jaishankar and others. India is now fully on board with the quad.

No point in trying to work out an arrangement with China which is using every possible avenue to put India down. Better to confront them in the quad format. This is a big big change but is is entirely warranted. What other path is there for India.

Once India prevents Chinese hegemony in Asia, it has room to grow into a great power itself.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 16 Apr 2021 09:54

V_Raman wrote:I am still not able to wrap my head around this aggressive Freedom of Navigation assertions by USNavy and subsequent climbing down. Is someone trying to sabotage QUAD from within USG?


I submit its Biden himself who could authorize the FONOPS and the statement.

US is nervous and US trying to limit India's reach.
Look at a proper map and see for yourself.

And then reflect on Jaishankar enunciation.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 16 Apr 2021 09:58

The QUAD will be a trilateral.
India, France, and Australia.
Japan will be cat on the wall.
It will be forced to choose.
It has a treaty with US but will US risk itself to save Japan?
I think not.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 16 Apr 2021 11:50

Nobody within the USG is trying to unravel the QUAD, IMHO.

My belief is that the US has learnt a big lesson from its unbridled embrace of China in the 70s through the 90s in order to dismantle the USSR.

In that Faustian bargain, they and at their instigation, Japan, created the monstrous China of today which today challenges them both and the rest of the world as well.

So, the US would constantly check other countries with which it wants to have a close relationship now in order to dismantle China. It wouldn't like to repeat its China mistake and give anyone a free ride.

This is especially true of India because after China, we are the only challenger to the US hegemony.

Ramana, I do not think that Japan is 'cat-on-the-wall' vis-a-vis China. Their 1500 year history of civilizational hostility wouldn't let that happen.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby csharma » 16 Apr 2021 11:57

Here is an article by Gen McMaster. Talks about how previous administrations has held hope that China would join the international system.


https://www.politico.com/newsletters/po ... icy-492476


Exclusive: Why Trump went hard on China, and Biden will follow

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby chetonzz » 16 Apr 2021 18:28

i think, it all spirals down to the society

USSR got dismantled not mainly because of foreign pressures but the society it had and the relation between the people and the government.
the economy of USSR became stagnant because people saw no encouragement, incentive and motivation in the overall scheme. Lack of freedom, open dialogue and excessive fear/use of force by state eventually harms the society.

no matter how powerful USSR looked at its peak, how powerful PRC looks now...if you treat your population like children- monitor them 24X7, force an ideology on them, censor anything opposite of "official" view...people will cause some damage to the state either intentionally or unknowingly.

USA, India and other "free" democracies may seem to be chaotic, protests ridden and mob ruled nations but that is way better than super violent "revolutions" USSR/PRC like entities go through periodically.

PRC is surpassing or have already surpassed USSR in the political(domestic) narrow mindedness...its just the matter of time when it implodes

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 17 Apr 2021 05:18

ramana wrote:The QUAD will be a trilateral.
India, France, and Australia.
Japan will be cat on the wall.
It will be forced to choose.
It has a treaty with US but will US risk itself to save Japan?
I think not.

US and for that matter any of those nations are unlikely to risk itself to save another member of the QUAD unless there is something material to gain.
However, we do share interests and therefore it makes sense to pool resources and cooperate. Think logistics, intelligence and equipment etc.

India is the only country that shares a land border with China and therefore can influence Chinese thinking/strategy vis a vis other members of the quad

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Prem Kumar » 17 Apr 2021 14:12

chetonzz wrote:PRC is surpassing or have already surpassed USSR in the political(domestic) narrow mindedness...its just the matter of time when it implodes


Agreed. But the implosion must be encouraged. The CCP might find ways to channelize the anger or distract people by opening up conflicts elsewhere.

Plus in CCP's case, they have 2 things going for them compared to the USSR:

1) The Chinese traditionally have been fine with a top-down authoritarian structure
2) They've a much more free market than the USSR ever did. So, even though there is corruption & cronyism, people's economic conditions have improved due to Deng's policies

But the Jack Ma episode, Mao-style leadership of Xi, Xinjiang, slowing economy etc are all fault-lines. These must be exploited.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby YashG » 17 Apr 2021 14:44

External actions of ccp are reflections of its internal politics. It limits their ability to truly lead meaningfully or even build alliances. Chinese foreign policy will remain a threat of absurd precisely because they will be directed internally .

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby yensoy » 17 Apr 2021 21:25

shyamd wrote:
ramana wrote:The QUAD will be a trilateral.
India, France, and Australia.
Japan will be cat on the wall.
It will be forced to choose.
It has a treaty with US but will US risk itself to save Japan?
I think not.

US and for that matter any of those nations are unlikely to risk itself to save another member of the QUAD unless there is something material to gain.

I will argue the contrary. US has the most to lose if China attacks anyone who seems to be in a US led alliance. Reason is that if US does not actively support that country, Pax Americana is dead. Other countries will see the writing on the wall that the US alliance (which in material terms manifests as huge arms purchases from the US, and huge US treasury bill purchases) is not worth it, and they will sue for peace with a rising China. That has the potential to take down the US as we know it.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vijayk » 17 Apr 2021 22:26

yensoy wrote:
shyamd wrote:US and for that matter any of those nations are unlikely to risk itself to save another member of the QUAD unless there is something material to gain.

I will argue the contrary. US has the most to lose if China attacks anyone who seems to be in a US led alliance. Reason is that if US does not actively support that country, Pax Americana is dead. Other countries will see the writing on the wall that the US alliance (which in material terms manifests as huge arms purchases from the US, and huge US treasury bill purchases) is not worth it, and they will sue for peace with a rising China. That has the potential to take down the US as we know it.


The current clueless in US have no thinking of future. Right now, they are in turmoil and thoroughly compromised with Chinese money

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 17 Apr 2021 22:49

This will wax and wane based on US internal politics but lets be clear - the Western nations don't have the stomach for body bags for the moment at least... Also there is a question of fighting a nuclear power.

-----------------------------
It looks like the Chinese have asked India to pull-back reserve forces before disengagement at places like Gogra, Depsang etc. IA wanted disengagement first to prevent likelihood of conflict before the reserve forces are pulled back.

China Study Group will be meeting middle of next week to review status and action.

My view is the current status quo will drag on until covert negotiations reach some headway. Russia is key.

IN is aggressively tailing any suspected PLAN intel ships or PLAN vessels.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby pushkar.bhat » 17 Apr 2021 23:17

V_Raman wrote:I am still not able to wrap my head around this aggressive Freedom of Navigation assertions by USNavy and subsequent climbing down. Is someone trying to sabotage QUAD from within USG?


There has been a lot that's happened on the topic of Chagos and Diago Garcia over the past few weeks. A judgement of the Special Chamber of the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea on a maritime boundary dispute between Mauritius and the Maldives went in favour of Mauritius. This dispute was specifically about who has jurisdiction over Chagos and Diago Garcia. This judgement needs to be looked at along with the 2019 advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice in which it determined that the decolonisation of Mauritius was not lawfully completed with the separation of the Chagos Archipelago and that the United Kingdom was obliged to end its administration of the islands as rapidly as possible.

Both these judgements clearly extend the sovereignty of Mauritius over Diego Garcia (Chagos Archipelago). I think the US expects India to raise this topic during the upcoming visit of the British PM. Further, India is likely to ask the USA to follow the rules that it expects China to follow in the Indo-pacific. The USA wants to subtly remind India that it also has excessive claims with respect to its EEZ and so the FON Exercise and assertions.

Just my 2 cents.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 17 Apr 2021 23:28

Prem Kumar wrote:
chetonzz wrote:PRC is surpassing or have already surpassed USSR in the political(domestic) narrow mindedness...its just the matter of time when it implodes


Agreed. But the implosion must be encouraged. The CCP might find ways to channelize the anger or distract people by opening up conflicts elsewhere.

Plus in CCP's case, they have 2 things going for them compared to the USSR:

1) The Chinese traditionally have been fine with a top-down authoritarian structure
2) They've a much more free market than the USSR ever did. So, even though there is corruption & cronyism, people's economic conditions have improved due to Deng's policies

But the Jack Ma episode, Mao-style leadership of Xi, Xinjiang, slowing economy etc are all fault-lines. These must be exploited.


There is a fine distinction between the CCCP and Lizard. The economy.

Not so much, as loss of personal freedoms, the CCCP fell because of economic stagnation. A pithy article here. Ultimately, an economy dependant on resource rents went through a major fiscal contraction with declining oil prices. Don't have the time now, but it would be interesting to plot Soviet GDP, Fiscal deficit, oil prices as a time series to show how it collapsed. The Soviet economy was bankrupt. That's why they had to let the Warsaw pact countries go (couldn't help finance their deficits). So much so, that when the Warsaw countries needed loans they turned to Western banks for financing. At a time when the Soviet economy was itself reeling and in need of handouts, neither Andropov, nor Gorbachev, could very well orchestrate a "Warsaw Spring" unlike Brezhnev and his Prague Spring.

And this distinctions is significant. As long as people's bellies in Lizardland is filled, the willingness to revolt will be low. So hoping for a breakup of China, if it continues delivering economically would be wistful.

Now whether, the Chinese economy is sustaibale or not is another question.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby V_Raman » 17 Apr 2021 23:42

pushkar.bhat wrote:
V_Raman wrote:I am still not able to wrap my head around this aggressive Freedom of Navigation assertions by USNavy and subsequent climbing down. Is someone trying to sabotage QUAD from within USG?


There has been a lot that's happened on the topic of Chagos and Diago Garcia over the past few weeks. A judgement of the Special Chamber of the International Tribunal of the Law of the Sea on a maritime boundary dispute between Mauritius and the Maldives went in favour of Mauritius. This dispute was specifically about who has jurisdiction over Chagos and Diago Garcia. This judgement needs to be looked at along with the 2019 advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice in which it determined that the decolonisation of Mauritius was not lawfully completed with the separation of the Chagos Archipelago and that the United Kingdom was obliged to end its administration of the islands as rapidly as possible.

Both these judgements clearly extend the sovereignty of Mauritius over Diego Garcia (Chagos Archipelago). I think the US expects India to raise this topic during the upcoming visit of the British PM. Further, India is likely to ask the USA to follow the rules that it expects China to follow in the Indo-pacific. The USA wants to subtly remind India that it also has excessive claims with respect to its EEZ and so the FON Exercise and assertions.

Just my 2 cents.


Brilliant - this makes sense. USA will now fear Indian expansion of influence as Mauritius is India and by that Diego Garcia is India

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 17 Apr 2021 23:44

Sorry for taking this OT. But maybe worth a look given that Sugar Babies are our main adversary.

Another insightful article which not only explains the Soviet economy but also points to a parallel with Sugarland now. Nintil: The Soviet Union GDP Growth

The parallel with China is how the Soviet economy in it's initial years, btween 1928 (Stalin coming to power) and 1950 was one of the fastest growing economies in the world. It is easy to see how to newly independent India's Chacha and team this was such an attractive alternative to Western models. Like China even now. Remember the Soviets were about 30 years ahead in their Communist program compared to China.

Image

The growth starts petering off when massive inputs of capital could not push up productivity (thing Chna for the moment seems to have overcome.

Image

Perhaps the best explanation that summarizes it, and I quote:
In the 1950s, however, Easterly & Fischer do find that the Soviet system performed well in terms of growth. They ultimately explain this by what the dub the _extensive growth hypothesis: _Growth fueled by increasing the amount of available factors (Labour and Capital) rather than increasing productivity. That, combined with a low elasticity of capital-labour substitution (Using a CES production function, they get 0.4) meant that diminishing returns to capital would ultimately stall growth when the capital share of the economy began to reduce as the economy shifted to consumer goods.



For those interested I would highly recommend the Soviet Series by the same author

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 18 Apr 2021 19:46

China carrying out drives to recruit Tibetans amid border standoff with India
There are also reports the PLA intends to create a Special Tibetan Army Unit, the people said, citing intelligence reports and communications intercepts from three separate intelligence agencies. If this were to go ahead, this would be the first PLA formation comprising soldiers from a specific ethnicity, the people added.

“These new recruitment drives are being held at a time when there are reports that mainstream Chinese troops from lower altitudes faced problems during their deployment in Tibet. We have intercepts showing their troops suffered from health problems such as severe mountain sickness and high altitude pulmonary oedema,” said an official.

The people said the special recruitment drives are meant to induct Tibetans into the PLA and not the Tibetan militia units, which play a role in patrolling, logistics and transporting supplies using mules and horses. These militia units specialise in operating at high altitudes and their training too has been intensified since last year, according to reports in China’s state media.

“The Chinese side made an informal proposal in this regard, hoping it could open the doors for possible recruitment of Gurkha soldiers but it was rebuffed,” said a person familiar with developments.

A second person confirmed the matter and said the moves in Nepal and Tibet were aimed at opening new fronts against India.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Aditya_V » 18 Apr 2021 21:44

This is very good, China mut arm its Tibetian battalions with lots of Ammo food and even given in charge of some long Range BM's with Nukes to hit Shanghai and Beijing.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 18 Apr 2021 22:16

They'll be recruiting from the tribes that are more pro-regime. Tibetan exiles are from a tribe that historically wanted independence I believe.

It's interesting that the agencies are releasing this news.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby csharma » 18 Apr 2021 23:18

It looks like we are in for multi year standoff. India should oppose China in all forums. Take every possible step to contain China

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Aditya_V » 19 Apr 2021 09:19

shyamd wrote:They'll be recruiting from the tribes that are more pro-regime. Tibetan exiles are from a tribe that historically wanted independence I believe.

It's interesting that the agencies are releasing this news.

They are not exclusive, that's why Chinese ha e moved some Tibetan families to Han territory as security, but in 10-15 years time the Tibetans will be trained, have access to Han weapons and families would have moved back to Tibet, make no mistake this is very good for the long term, Tibetans should just play Taqqiya for 15 years or so.

Multi year stand off is the best way for us keep improving infra and capabilities while curbing the Indian babu and businessman of thier itch to fall for temporary short term 1 time bargains by the CCP which are always long term disastrous for us.

Kashmir insurgency is not cheap, it is funded heavily by foreign governments out of which Pakistan share is only a percentage, Western, middle eastern and Chinese governments are all involved. It takes years of doing the right thing to peel each layer of various levers against us.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby VinodTK » 19 Apr 2021 18:45

BEFORE TROOPS TOOK KAILASH HEIGHTS, ARMY LOOKED EAST TO RELIEVE LADAKH PRESSURE
Before Indian troops occupied strategic heights in the Kailash range in eastern Ladakh in August last year to turn the tables on the Chinese, one of the options considered by the Army brass was a build-up, and a counter-thrust if need be, in the Eastern Sector to “relieve pressure in the area of Ladakh”.
The Kailash range operation, which put the Chinese at a disadvantage for the first time since the start of the standoff along the Line of Actual Control in May last year, led to the disengagement of troops and armoured columns on the north and south banks of Pangong Tso and the Kailash range this February.
A top source, who was involved in military decision-making, told The Indian Express: “We were trying to keep this entire conflict situation localised to the Ladakh sector. It was not in our interest to escalate it and take it to other sectors also. Because we had to see what our capabilities are, what the connectivity issues are, what force levels are available. That was our thinking.”
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby shyamd » 19 Apr 2021 22:37

^^ It just confirms what I said all the way along - Army was ready to conduct ops earlier.

The Galwan incident was troubling me for last few days so this article is timely.

To cut the long story short - I agree with the views presented in this article.

1) PLA direction to troops is to go for close quarter brawls with IA. i.e. stone throwing and physical altercation. Number of reasons for this including they believe that they will come out better in these engagements due to larger numbers, martial arts training for ordinary troops, better non-lethal equipment)
2) PLA tend to patrol with larger number of troops and they are aware that their logistics enables them to get troops to site faster if clashes escalate (even if they lose small battles initially)

In one altercation, a young IA captain was telling off his PLA opposite number about why they are patrolling in such huge numbers.

Why do this?
Frustrate IA/ITBP and psychological angle on ability to dominate.
PLA are comfortable at keeping the battle at this level.

IA has always manpower issue - they have generally undermanned these parts of the border.
Not everyone is trained regularly in hand to hand combat. One of the most effective in the Galwan clash were Ghatak's who are trained regularly in H2H combat and are almost on par with SF in physical ability - apparently they caused the most damage to PLA in the Galwan incident.

So what happens now?
PLA will keep the temperature at the same levels. Multiple physical clashes. Continue to patrol in larger numbers and dominate the areas. Camp on Indian side of LAC and then withdraw after negotiations.

Given the current COVID situation I think we are going to have a very hot season coming up with PLA.

Remember the 3 key words from my previous post:
Speed, mobility and integrated/acclimatised forces in numbers

To deliver this effect IA will have to deploy higher number of troops (surprise surprise PLA asked IA to reduce their rear forces and not disengage on the front line!!!!)
Need greater number of helicopters (medium and light) and C-130s to land on ALGs.

I expect the IA/IAF/ITBP exercise to demonstrate this.

IA/ITBP will need to get better riot gear/non-lethal equipment/develop better tactics.


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