INS Arihant: News & Discussion

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souravB
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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby souravB » 03 Mar 2021 09:51

Rakesh wrote:Considering the neighbourhood India lives in, it is best to leave her second strike capability ambiguous.

Saar, wouldn't it make more sense to announce the induction since second strike capability is more of a deterrent rather than option?

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Prem Kumar » 03 Mar 2021 13:17

souravB wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Considering the neighbourhood India lives in, it is best to leave her second strike capability ambiguous.

Saar, wouldn't it make more sense to announce the induction since second strike capability is more of a deterrent rather than option?


Its both. We want to announce that we have 2nd strike capability because that's what deterrence is all about

But we don't want to announce launch/commissioning dates of our N-subs. Its a good idea to even leave the number of N-subs ambiguous if we can pull it off. As long as the enemy knows that we have enough of them for a 2nd strike, he doesn't have to know the # of subs

So, the announcement will come some day, months after she is in active patrol

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Cyrano » 03 Mar 2021 17:05

Agree. That we have a credible deterrent is well known to the intended parties. Note the word dropped.

All the rest should be Maya onlee...

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby souravB » 03 Mar 2021 17:39

Prem Kumar wrote:But we don't want to announce launch/commissioning dates of our N-subs. Its a good idea to even leave the number of N-subs ambiguous if we can pull it off.

Still its not making sense to me.
How can we announce we have deterrence without announcing the induction? OTOH if we do not announce then the adversary may get adventurous seeing the lesser number of vessels which it should track. That does not seem as a deterrent.
For me it seems like the opposite should be the norm. Announce induction/launch even before it.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Rakesh » 04 Mar 2021 00:30

sourav, look at this issue from China's point of view. I will leave Pakistan out for now, but will get to it at the bottom of my post.

If China destroys India's land based nuclear-tipped ICBMs and all her air bases, in a first decapitation style strike....will India still have the ability to respond with nukes? The answer is yes, because of India's SLBM-capable vessels.

Now how many Arihant Class vessels are there? Nobody knows, apart from the people who need to be aware. All OSINT folks fall back to satellite pictures to make inferences, but that is where it ends. Remember, the Arihant's first patrol was only announced after she completed her patrol. All things considered, it was a calculated announcement in which the PM himself attended. And it sent a message to all, that an Indian Navy SLBM submarine successfully completed her first silent patrol. The significance of that is huge.

Now if China sinks the Arihant, how many more vessels are out there? Which part of the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal or the larger Indian Ocean is China going to search to seek-out-and-destroy these additional vessels? Is it one more? or two more? or three more? Depending on who you ask, there is more than just one that has been commissioned. Some say, two vessels, yet others say three. But this very ambiguity provides that strategic deterrence that India needs.

By keeping the number of boats ambiguous and their subsequent commissioning, it complicates war planning for the Chinese. At the end of the day, the Arihant and her sister ships need to give the Chinese need a moment of pause. If I decapitate India, can India still strike back? And if the answer is yes, then is nuclear war worth the risk? The deterrence with Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) only works, if there is a 100% guarantee that the other side will strike back. What is the point, if you are going to end up in the same fate as your enemy? The key word in MAD is Mutual. What you do to me, I can do the same to you. And from China's standpoint, that is a scenario they cannot avoid vis-à-vis India.

It is for this reason, that the exact number of vessels and their commissioning, are kept a closely guarded secret. If, when and where the Govt chooses to announce is the Govt's prerogative. Let the Arihant and her sister ships forever stay silent. What is the point in the aam admi - like you and me - knowing how many vessels are actually in service? And more importantly, why announce the exact number of vessels to the enemy? Since ambiguity serves the purpose, let it remain that way.

===============================================================

Pakistan is a different ballgame and consists of one main player - the army. Their parliament and their government is only for show. The real power broker in Pakistan is the Army. And their army generals are rational and sane human beings because of the lifestyle they enjoy. Corner plot bungalow in Islamabad, many serf to do their bidding, have a number of illegal hustles (business) on the side, real & living 72 on call 24-7, etc. Life is really good for the Pak Jernail. And he is not about to jeopardize all that over Kashmir or some other foolishness. He will send Jihadis to do the grunt work i.e. die, but he will not risk himself ending up as radioactive waste.

Remember Musharraf's famous announcement during Operation Parakram? I paraphrase, but it goes something like this...

"Even if one Indian soldier trespasses on Pakistani soil, they will witness a fire & fury like never before."

This was said to assuage the Pak public of the Indian Army's Strike Corps likely decimating the Pakistan Army in war. Pakistan soon responded with Nasr tactical nukes to counter the Indian Army's IBGs. But India called out Pakistan's nuclear bluff, not once...but twice.

1) Surgical Strike in 2016 by the Indian Army
2) Balakot Strike in 2019 by the Indian Air Force

In both, Pakistan did what it does best. Subterfuge, deception and lies to convince their people...that they won. To the Pak Jernail, demonizing India is a better long term strategy, than actually going to war with India. They are not about to start a nuclear conflict with India. There is no scenario for them, in which they will end up on top.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby souravB » 04 Mar 2021 09:13

Rakesh wrote:

Thank you saar for the detailed reply.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Prem Kumar » 04 Mar 2021 12:51

Great points Rakesh

1) There is deterrence by disclosure: "letting the enemy know that you have a devastating 2nd strike capability"
2) Then there is deterrence by ambiguity: "letting the enemy remain confused about how devastating the 2nd strike will be & how many 2nd strike platforms are there. Is it 100 N-bums or 200? Is it 4 Arihants or 6?"

1 & 2 together will make the enemy behave

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby YashG » 04 Mar 2021 17:51

Key word is credible deterrence. In case sea based attack is the only 2nd strike option and if you have only 2 or 3 Arihants, then your likely positions to fire, your likely places to attack and likely pathways can all be predicted. BMD becomes plausible in this case.

Devastating 2nd strike would need MIRVs, High number of Arihants (more like 6) and Naval flotillas to act as decoy positions. Deterrence through #1 works better if we have the above for sure. In case we dont, #2 is a better deterrence pathway.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Rakesh » 04 Mar 2021 23:18

In the absence of option #1, the fall back is option #2.

India will eventually get to option #1. But you have to start somewhere.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 05 Mar 2021 01:18

souravB wrote:
Prem Kumar wrote:But we don't want to announce launch/commissioning dates of our N-subs. Its a good idea to even leave the number of N-subs ambiguous if we can pull it off.

Still its not making sense to me.
How can we announce we have deterrence without announcing the induction? OTOH if we do not announce then the adversary may get adventurous seeing the lesser number of vessels which it should track. That does not seem as a deterrent.
For me it seems like the opposite should be the norm. Announce induction/launch even before it.


Those who need to know, know. So don't get into a knot.
The announcing and all that is for the US with its "Walk softly and carry a big stick !" policy.
It goes to the heart of "Essence of Decision Making" in JFK words.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Philip » 06 Mar 2021 16:22

It will be some time before we have a fully credible SSBN deterrent with a minimum 5000km+ range ICBMs. Until then,mobile ICBM launchers both road and rail,widely dispersed will suffice.What we lack is a credible IAF strat. bomber. Despite their solid sea based SSBN deterrent,both the US and Russia are developing new stealth bombers.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby YashG » 06 Mar 2021 16:49

Rakesh wrote:In the absence of option #1, the fall back is option #2.

India will eventually get to option #1. But you have to start somewhere.


Exactly, #1 is not an option rn.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby ashthor » 11 Mar 2021 13:47

India’s Second Indigenous Nuclear Submarine, Arighat, To Be Commissioned This Year

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/indias-second-indigenous-nuclear-submarine-arighat-to-be-commissioned-this-year

The submarine, which had been quietly launched in 2017 by the then defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman, is currently in the final stages of sea trials.

The Arighat was to be commissioned into service late last year but the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic derailed the plan.

The boat has four missile launch tubes, capable of carrying 12 K-15 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) or four K-4 SLBMs. While the K-15 has a range of 750 kilometer, the K-4 can hit targets 3,500 km away.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Aditya_V » 11 Mar 2021 14:00

ashthor wrote:India’s Second Indigenous Nuclear Submarine, Arighat, To Be Commissioned This Year

https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/indias-second-indigenous-nuclear-submarine-arighat-to-be-commissioned-this-year

The submarine, which had been quietly launched in 2017 by the then defence minister Nirmala Sitharaman, is currently in the final stages of sea trials.

The Arighat was to be commissioned into service late last year but the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic derailed the plan.

The boat has four missile launch tubes, capable of carrying 12 K-15 Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) or four K-4 SLBMs. While the K-15 has a range of 750 kilometer, the K-4 can hit targets 3,500 km away.


Two more SSBNs, identified as S4 and S4* for now, are under final assembly at the Ship Building Centre in Visakhapatnam. These boats will not only be better armed — capable of carrying eight 3,500 km range K-4 — than INS Arihant and Arighat but also displace 1,000 tonnes more than the two submarines.


The SSN programme, reports say, was cleared in 2015, a year after the Narendra Modi government came to power. The Gurgaon-based Submarine Design Centre had started working on the project sometime in 2017.


India is also developing a new series of SSBNs, which will be much larger and better armed than the Arihant-class SSBNs. Currently identified in news reports as S-5, this type will have a displacement of 13,500 tonnes. Reports say the type will be capable of carrying 12 long-range nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.


So - 4 in Arhant Class, then 6 SSN and unknown numeber of S-5's. I hope that new Project 75I can cordinate and both programmes can feed of each each other for Sonar's, Torpedos etc.

Total Sub fleet will be

- 8 Kilo Class subs
- 4 Type 209
- 3 Scorpenes
- INS Chakra
- INS Arighat and INS Arihant - 18 SUbs by the end of this month.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby srai » 11 Mar 2021 14:56

^^^
...
So - 4 in Arhant Class, then 6 SSN and unknown numeber of S-5's. ...


Given India’s similar economy and defense budgets as that of France and UK, one can expect a SSBN fleet of 4-units. Allows for one or two on active deployments and the remaining two as reserves or undergoing repairs and refitment.

SSN would be 6-7 units.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Rakesh » 12 Mar 2021 01:18

https://twitter.com/Aditya_G_Social/sta ... 40228?s=20 ---> Possibly Arihant Class SSBN bridge. From Directorate of Naval Design (Submarine Design Group). Photo Link ---> https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/node/13990

https://twitter.com/JJ18712/status/1370 ... 43082?s=20 ---> That's from Russian Amur Class, from 1997.

Image

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Philip » 12 Mar 2021 02:36

In one report on the Karanj commissioning.the P-75I prog. will be followed by a 12 boat desi-class the P-76.Now if you add up the number of conventional boats/AIP that we will have in the future,6+ Scorpene (AIP retrofitted),6+ P-75I and 12 P-76. The P-76 the replacements for our Kilos.That amounts to 24 conventional/AIP boats, what I've been emphasising for aeons is the ideal number.
Add to this the 6-8 SSBNs,6 SSNs plus a few 2-4 Akula SSGNs,will give us another 12-16 N-boats,a total of 36-40 subs,the minimum number to deal with both the PLAN and PN.This is excluding an unknown number of mini-subs,UUSVs,which are meant for coastal duties and chokepoints. It looks like the sub fleet future plans are on track.

If 2 SSBNs have/are been commissioned,then you can bet your backside that at least another one is undergoing trials,or nearing launch.Ambiguity best fed to the enemy.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Vips » 13 Mar 2021 19:34

According to a Defence AV on Youtube:

-S4 has moved from the dry dock to the new submarine cover at SBC(Ship Building Centre, Visakhapatnam) where installation of equipment is being carried out. This is supposed to be getting done by June for launch of the submarine for starting trials later in the year.
-New Submarine cover for India's S4 Nuclear and S4* submarine is 40 Meters longer then previous submarine cover used for the Arihant and Arighat.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Rakesh » 10 Apr 2021 07:22

https://twitter.com/ThingsNavy/status/1 ... 66695?s=20 ---> K-15 or B-05 is a two-stage submarine-launched ballistic missile.

Image

Image

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby darshhan » 10 Apr 2021 19:41

Philip wrote:......
Add to this the 6-8 SSBNs,6 SSNs plus a few 2-4 Akula SSGNs,will give us another 12-16 N-boats,a total of 36-40 subs,the minimum number to deal with both the PLAN and PN.This is excluding an unknown number of mini-subs,UUSVs,which are meant for coastal duties and chokepoints. It looks like the sub fleet future plans are on track.

........


This makes sense only if Chinese or other enemies decide to wait for us to complete our development and induction of these submarines which could take upto 2035 at the earliest. Highly unlikely IMO.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Rakesh » 20 Apr 2021 22:55

https://twitter.com/SandeepUnnithan/sta ... 00226?s=20 ---> Scholars and Indian Navy brass have fallen for the trope that India’s SSN project was converted it into an SSBN post 1998. As the very knowledgeable Rear Admiral Sudarshan Shrikhande outlines in this paper, it was an elaborate deception - the ATV was always a boomer.

https://nsc.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/d ... df#page=51

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Rakesh » 27 Apr 2021 20:49

https://twitter.com/GODOFPARADOXES/stat ... 51457?s=20 ---> DRDO microprocessor based scrubber system for maintaining optimal level of CO2 inside subs. It consists of molecular sieve based absorption & dehumidifying system, heating & cooling system, compressor & vacuum pump, auto control unit & online monitor, etc. Installed in IN SSBNs.

Image

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Rakesh » 27 Apr 2021 20:57

https://twitter.com/GODOFPARADOXES/stat ... 60867?s=20 --> Infograph on decoys deployed on Arihant SSBN to counter acoustic, active/passive wire/non-wire guided torpedoes, etc. Total 96 decoys available in 4 banks of 24 celled launchers. Two types of decoys employed;

1. Mobile target emulators
2. Stationary jammers

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Rony » 07 May 2021 03:29

5 Years Of Submarine Secrecy: India’s Unique Arihant Class Is Still In Hiding

The Arihant is a unique design which can be characterized as a ‘pocket boomer’. It is much smaller than other ballistic missile submarines (North Koreas’ conventionally powered boats excepted). Its hull is shorter and thinner than its contemporaries and it only carries four missile silos.

But this does not take away from the industrial achievement of an indigenous nuclear-powered submarine. And in many respects its modest size seems pragmatic. Other countries now taking the nuclear submarine path, such as Brazil, are also going for smaller types.

The Kilo Connection

Analysis of the few photograph available confirm that some aspects of Arihant bear a strong resemblance to the Kilo Class. The upper sonar dome on top of the bow and many aspects of the sail are visually identical. And the hull diameter appears to match. In essence, the forward hull and sail are essentially similar to the Kilo Class. This makes some sense as India purchased 10 Kilos which are known as the Sindhughosh Class in service.

Several of India’s Kilos have been refitted with DRDO developed ‘USHUS’ sonar suites. It seems probable that the Arihant’s forward hull is so similar in order to leverage the USHUS sonar. This system, now improved to USHUS-2. was under development at the right time to be fitted to her.
USHS includes a cylindrical passive sonar in the chin, several intercept sonars, an obstacle avoidance sonar and an active sonar.

Overall the arrangement of the system is the same as the Russian systems originally fitted to the Kilo. However the intercept sonars in the trailing edge of the sail are arranged one above the other. This may explain the different shape of the sonar window seen there on the Arihant.

One visible difference between the bow on Arihant and the Kilo Class is the torpedo tube arrangement. Arihant’s are set lower. This indicates some internal differences and confirms that it is not literally a Kilo hull.

The design also has the forward hydroplanes moved to the sail, a position known as fairwater planes. The upper part of the casing has been raised to fair over the missile silos which are in the usual place behind the sail.


Indigenous Missiles


Behind the sail the missile compartment initiates the part of the submarine which is unlike anything on a Kilo. Four large-diameter missile silos are arranged in a single line. Initially these are fitted with triple tubes for the K-15 ‘Sagarika’ missile. This weapon is about 10 It can deliver a 1,000 kg warhead about 400 nautical miles.

K-15 is seen as an interim solution however. Each missile tube should be able to fit a single K-4 missile. The newer K-4 is a full-size SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile). This is expected to have a range of around 1,900 nautical miles, almost 4 times that of the K-15. While shorter ranged than the SLBMs in service with more mature nuclear navies, it will move India’s at-sea deterrent up a notch.



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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Philip » 07 May 2021 10:27

The banks of decoy tubes, resemble free flood holes and would cause a degree of extra noise that could've been avoided by a simple flush cover. The sub also requires a hard-kill anti- torpedo option as well as smart torpedoes have extra endurance to make repeated attacks if the miss the target due to decoys,etc.

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby Philip » 08 May 2021 22:13

Since details and pics of our N-subs are virtually non-existant in open sources,perhaps this excellent vclip about RuN Akulas may give us some idea of the what we may find aboard our N-subs,the Chakra (Akula) and Arihant,etc.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/2 ... ttack-subs

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby dinesha » 15 May 2021 20:13

Chinese Publicaion:
Source: https://twitter.com/RonaldReagan98/stat ... 3540114437
Claim: Radiograph of the Indian SSBN Arihant-class submarine.

Image

Image

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Re: INS Arihant: News & Discussion

Postby SSridhar » 15 May 2021 21:37

Part of information warfare from China.


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