India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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hemant_sai
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby hemant_sai » 09 Jun 2021 23:37

Ok now I understood.

We are ready for 2 front war since ages.

But since salami slicing is not actually fighting a war, we are not prepared for it :)

And for same reason, why would Chinis want war when they can play patient game of salami slicing.

We have so much issues with basic mindset and we keep on singing about Super Power.....Hopeless !!

Until we/country change Role Model, we are not going to improve substantially.

This country needs Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj more than ever. Bapu ko araam ki sakt zaroorat hain.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby AshishA » 10 Jun 2021 00:30

Another thing I forgot to mention is the nukes. 3 countries are nuclear powers. Currently, we, pakis and the Chinese are engaged a deadly situation. If situation escalates or spirals to a point that to save face, Chinese or the pakis will resort to nukes. We might be dealing with worst case scenario. And there is also growing concern about Chinese nuclear ambiguity. They are evaluating their no first strike doctrine. And how much of a control do Chinese and Americans have on paki nukes? Before any border conflict, we need to imagine and plan for possible nuclear exchange

Another thing is their cyber capabilities. It's extent and reach is still unknown. And also it's potential for massive destruction is still not predictable. It was a problem before. But the use of Chinese electronics equipments have made the situation dire. We have to operate under the assumption that every Chinese electronics has a built in backdoor. The most troubling aspect is like Wuhan virus, can it even be traced back to Beijing? And after that what will our response?

We already saw the bio warfare that's currently ongoing. With this they have ensured by 2025 they will become the largest economy overtaking USA.

Another thing is, the rise of social media has ensured that passions can be inflamed very easily. 2019 pulwama attack was made with a intent to make modi look weak. Though it did the opposite effect, it could have easily gone wrong if even one pilot would have lost his life. And it was easier for us because Jaish guys admitted it was their doing. If they hadn't, deshdrohi opposition would have spread fake news that it was a false flag etc.

What should be our next response if pakis do another pulwama or uri or 26/11?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby V_Raman » 10 Jun 2021 02:38

if pak does another pulwana - we will hit them like what we did last time - harder maybe with brahmos. that line is crossed. the only worry will be china starting and pak joining in

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby LakshmanPST » 10 Jun 2021 02:48

I think China will actually fight a war with India...

For a country to be taken seriously, it needs to fight an actual war...
If Xi really wants to prove that China is a military power that means business, they need to fight a war and win it... Fancy parades, polished equipment or propaganda videos are not enough... The only way to earn respect in a jungle is to fight and win...

China can not fight Japan, SoKo or Taiwan for now, as that will involve USA... There are no issues with other countries which would really require a full scale war... Also, other countries, barring Russia and India, do not really have a sizeable army...
They do not want to spoil their relations with Russia for now... That leaves India...

India has a sizeable & experienced army, shares a land border and at the sametime located far away from their population centres, has an unresolved dispute involving signifiant land area and a country that has the potential to rival China in future...

Winning against India in a war will give China immense respect and the reputation of a military superpower that can truly rival USA...
At the sametime, defeat against India or even a stalemate would be huge loss of face... It has the potential of triggering a new Civil war in China...

The thing is, if China truly wants to be taken seriously as a military power, they need to win a war against India... Though a loss would be devastating to them, they need to take that risk... They have no other option...

I personally believe this will be the reason why China will indeed fight India... Unlike popular opinion, the Chinese will take the risk to cement their position in the New World Order...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Rishirishi » 10 Jun 2021 05:43

LakshmanPST wrote:I think China will actually fight a war with India...

For a country to be taken seriously, it needs to fight an actual war...
If Xi really wants to prove that China is a military power that means business, they need to fight a war and win it... Fancy parades, polished equipment or propaganda videos are not enough... The only way to earn respect in a jungle is to fight and win...

China can not fight Japan, SoKo or Taiwan for now, as that will involve USA... There are no issues with other countries which would really require a full scale war... Also, other countries, barring Russia and India, do not really have a sizeable army...
They do not want to spoil their relations with Russia for now... That leaves India...

India has a sizeable & experienced army, shares a land border and at the sametime located far away from their population centres, has an unresolved dispute involving signifiant land area and a country that has the potential to rival China in future...

Winning against India in a war will give China immense respect and the reputation of a military superpower that can truly rival USA...
At the sametime, defeat against India or even a stalemate would be huge loss of face... It has the potential of triggering a new Civil war in China...

The thing is, if China truly wants to be taken seriously as a military power, they need to win a war against India... Though a loss would be devastating to them, they need to take that risk... They have no other option...

I personally believe this will be the reason why China will indeed fight India... Unlike popular opinion, the Chinese will take the risk to cement their position in the New World Order...


Consider some dynamics.

-USA may step in and sell India advanced weapons. India probably already has a superior airpower on the border. Chinese airports are located at high altitudes.

-It will put a fear into rest of Asia and the world, economic sanctions are a true possibility.

-The Indo China border is very far away from the populated areas in the south of China.

-India is NOT a pushover. It also has nukes. India may use them, if China makes meaningful gains. This is particularly true if they grab Indian soil.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 10 Jun 2021 08:26

LakshmanPST wrote:
For a country to be taken seriously, it needs to fight an actual war...
If Xi really wants to prove that China is a military power that means business, they need to fight a war and win it... Fancy parades, polished equipment or propaganda videos are not enough... The only way to earn respect in a jungle is to fight and win...

..............


This is actually truer for India. It is India which needs to fight a big war and win it to get respect internationally. China fought its wars in 1940-1980 period itself. Showed that it had tolerance to suffer massive level of fatalities against Japan, civil war, korea, Tibet, India(1962) and Vietnam. Hence the west and US was forced to treat China with respect including giving it a security council seat and followed by making PRC the designated manufacturing hub of the world. They have done what they needed to do.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 10 Jun 2021 08:39

Rishirishi wrote:It also has nukes. India may use them, if China makes meaningful gains. This is particularly true if they grab Indian soil.

That's Pakistan's nuclear doctrine, not India's.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vera_k » 10 Jun 2021 09:31

If Covid is shown to be a bio-weapon a second strike is justified under Indian doctrine.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 10 Jun 2021 10:00

vera_k wrote:If Covid is shown to be a bio-weapon a second strike is justified under Indian doctrine.

My point was with respect to China 'grabbing Indian soil'. That's not part of Indian doctrine.

The doubts about Covid coming from the Wuhan Institute of Virology are dissipating by the day. The latest is the discovery of marker nucleotide CGG which has been deliberately introduced by WIV into the Corona viral genome as part of 'gain of function'. What remains to be proven is whether the leak was accidental or deliberate. In either case China stands accused of non-cooperation, unwillingness to share data, deliberate misleading of the world community, suppression of facts, blocking international investigation etc.

If the Wuhan China Corona virus turns out to be a bio-weapon, then the world will have to act, not India launching a nuke strike on China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 10 Jun 2021 10:03

vera_k wrote:If Covid is shown to be a bio-weapon a second strike is justified under Indian doctrine.


To my knowledge till date India probably has not even started a formal investigation into the origins of Covid virus. One of the reasons is because they know what you said is right. Under current nuclear doctrine Indian govt is bound to retaliate with nukes against any NBC attack. This is the reason why Indian govt destroyed our small chemical weapons inventory along with never starting an active biowar program. So in nutshell our inability to respond with nukes against the perpetrator of Covid is also a failure of our nuclear doctrine and by extension our deterrence.

Just for reference the actual covid virus inflicted fatalities in India would be atleast 20x more than hiroshima atom bomb attack. As far as economic destruction is concerned, let us not even go there.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby LakshmanPST » 10 Jun 2021 10:42

darshhan wrote:
This is actually truer for India. It is India which needs to fight a big war and win it to get respect internationally. China fought its wars in 1940-1980 period itself. Showed that it had tolerance to suffer massive level of fatalities against Japan, civil war, korea, Tibet, India(1962) and Vietnam. Hence the west and US was forced to treat China with respect including giving it a security council seat and followed by making PRC the designated manufacturing hub of the world. They have done what they needed to do.


That was true in the middle of last century...
Today's China is different... Their military has been modernized and their economy is 2nd highest in the world... Their ambitions are different today... They are projecting themselves as the next Superpower...
The last war they fought was 40 years ago and they were not technologically advanced then... As of now, their popular image is that of a paper tiger and a bully with single child princes not brave enough to fight... PRC very well know this...
They want to announce their arrival to the world stage... So, they have to prove themselves in a fight... A short war or skirmish with India gives them that oppurtunity...

I feel the rhetoric about Taiwan is more for powerplay with US... It is for future...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby RajaRudra » 10 Jun 2021 18:32

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 396788.cms

Chinese man in Indo - Bangla Border , that too with the passport and Laptop intact.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby vijayk » 10 Jun 2021 20:15

SSridhar wrote:
vera_k wrote:If Covid is shown to be a bio-weapon a second strike is justified under Indian doctrine.

My point was with respect to China 'grabbing Indian soil'. That's not part of Indian doctrine.

The doubts about Covid coming from the Wuhan Institute of Virology are dissipating by the day. The latest is the discovery of marker nucleotide CGG which has been deliberately introduced by WIV into the Corona viral genome as part of 'gain of function'. What remains to be proven is whether the leak was accidental or deliberate. In either case China stands accused of non-cooperation, unwillingness to share data, deliberate misleading of the world community, suppression of facts, blocking international investigation etc.

If the Wuhan China Corona virus turns out to be a bio-weapon, then the world will have to act, not India launching a nuke strike on China.


https://www.wionews.com/opinions-blogs/ ... -19-303189

Is considering a genetic-manipulation origin for SARS-CoV-2 a conspiracy theory that must be censored?

That is the title of a new scientific analysis of the structure of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the course of answering that question, the authors provide unequivocal evidence that SARS-CoV-2 was not naturally-occurring.

The theory that the Wuhan’s Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was the first source for animal–human viral transmission, long promoted by China, some Western scientists and the media, is now totally discredited, even by the Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The claim that COVID-19 is a naturally-occurring outbreak has been based, nearly entirely, on a single, but widely-cited scientific article entitled “The Proximal Origin of SAR-CoV-2,” the arguments of which are thoroughly dissected and dismantled by the authors of the present study.

Although China is now promoting a new “multiple origin” theory based on alleged genetic differences observed in the virus taken from a small sample of Chinese COVID-19 patients and published in March and May, the validity and significance of those findings are already in dispute.

There remains no credible scientific evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic was naturally-occurring.

The evidence to the contrary, that the coronavirus responsible, SARS-CoV-2, was man-made is now substantial.

The most conspicuous sign of genetic manipulation is the presence of a furin polybasic cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2, a structure that is not present in any of the coronaviruses so far identified as possible recent ancestors.

According to the new study, the furin site was created by a genetic, nucleotide insertion that coded for amino acids proline, arginine, arginine, alanine (PRRA). The two arginines are coded by nucleotide “codons,” consisting of a sequence of three nucleotides each, CGG-CGG.


https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... e_censored

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby krishna_krishna » 10 Jun 2021 23:55

Next thrust is going to be Siliguri corridor (chicken's area). From the dust on the servers looks like this illegal exchange was in operation from very long time, also the names are sharia compliant (Bin in the middle for fathers name) :

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/m ... 2021-06-09

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 11 Jun 2021 00:10

SSridhar wrote:
vera_k wrote:If Covid is shown to be a bio-weapon a second strike is justified under Indian doctrine.

My point was with respect to China 'grabbing Indian soil'. That's not part of Indian doctrine.

The doubts about Covid coming from the Wuhan Institute of Virology are dissipating by the day. The latest is the discovery of marker nucleotide CGG which has been deliberately introduced by WIV into the Corona viral genome as part of 'gain of function'. What remains to be proven is whether the leak was accidental or deliberate. In either case China stands accused of non-cooperation, unwillingness to share data, deliberate misleading of the world community, suppression of facts, blocking international investigation etc.

If the Wuhan China Corona virus turns out to be a bio-weapon, then the world will have to act, not India launching a nuke strike on China.



Its pressure tactics by Biden Admin to get Chian to sign up for a new trade deal. There won't be any action for both are neck-deep in the gain of function business.

I read on Bloomberg that the US is getting ready for trade talks with China and ice is broken.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby KL Dubey » 11 Jun 2021 01:12

krishna_krishna wrote:......also the names are sharia compliant (Bin in the middle for fathers name) :

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/m ... 2021-06-09



Ibrahim Mullatti Bin Mohammed Kutty (36) hails from Mallapur in Kerala and Gowtham Bin Viswanathan (27) is originally from Tamil Nadu's Tirupur district.


Name of the first fellow is totally understandable for something like this...but WTF is "Gowtham Bin Viswanathan" ? Is this a Hindoo gone to the dark side, or a mooner using a fake name ?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Rupesh » 11 Jun 2021 02:19

Gowtham might be a recent convert.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby arshyam » 11 Jun 2021 07:46

Or, as KL saar said, a fake Hindu. Could even be one of the Bangalore, Kerala types. Name sounds too pat.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby AshishA » 11 Jun 2021 12:54

Btw do we know any politburo member took the fall for the galwan debacle? That operation would have been approved at the highest levels. So ofc their CMC would definitely have a fall guy which is their SOP after every debacle. Or if they didn't scapegoat anyone, I believe they didn't view it much of a failure.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby LakshmanPST » 11 Jun 2021 15:40

AshishA wrote:Btw do we know any politburo member took the fall for the galwan debacle? That operation would have been approved at the highest levels. So ofc their CMC would definitely have a fall guy which is their SOP after every debacle. Or if they didn't scapegoat anyone, I believe they didn't view it much of a failure.


From what I understood by lurking into Chinese forums, they didn't see Galwan or withdrawl from Pangong Tso as a failure... Rather, they saw it as PLA standing up to Indian aggression and showing India its place... Atleast, that is the narrative they spread domestically...
Whether there will be some action internally within CCP, I'm not sure... And we probably may not know coz. any public action taken will expose their narrative...

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 11 Jun 2021 20:29

XJP authorized it and hence no one else took the fall. The Western Theater Commander got reassigned. So it's a military debacle.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 11 Jun 2021 22:17

LakshmanPST wrote:
darshhan wrote:
This is actually truer for India. It is India which needs to fight a big war and win it to get respect internationally. China fought its wars in 1940-1980 period itself. Showed that it had tolerance to suffer massive level of fatalities against Japan, civil war, korea, Tibet, India(1962) and Vietnam. Hence the west and US was forced to treat China with respect including giving it a security council seat and followed by making PRC the designated manufacturing hub of the world. They have done what they needed to do.


That was true in the middle of last century...
Today's China is different... Their military has been modernized and their economy is 2nd highest in the world... Their ambitions are different today... They are projecting themselves as the next Superpower...
The last war they fought was 40 years ago and they were not technologically advanced then... As of now, their popular image is that of a paper tiger and a bully with single child princes not brave enough to fight... PRC very well know this...
They want to announce their arrival to the world stage... So, they have to prove themselves in a fight... A short war or skirmish with India gives them that oppurtunity...

I feel the rhetoric about Taiwan is more for powerplay with US... It is for future...


I agree that China carried out its last full scale military operations in 1979. More than 42 years ago. So approx 40 years of wars leading to more than 4 decades of peace dividend in which China achieved the following among other things.

1. Recognition of PRC as official China in place of Taiwan
2. Membership of multilateral forums such as security council, nsg etc
3. Economic development on a massive scale aided in large part by infusion of foreign investment and foreign skills.
Etc

Seems like a very good strategy to me.

But you are making a mistake by confusing War with only Conventional Military Operations. This has probably never been true in past and definitely not true in 21st century. Matter of fact is that China is already proactively waging war against its perceived enemies including India 24×7 in multiple ways and till date none of its enemies have been able to respond to it in a coherent and sustained manner. To shut down a factory I can bomb it using the predictable military means or better still I pay of Protestors, NGOs and corrupt elements in Judiciary/politics/bureaucracy to shut it down, sometimes indefinitely. Here are some examples below.

Supreme court rejects Vedanta Group's plea to open sterlite copper

Over Rs 70,000 crore economic loss in Q3 due to farmers' agitation: PHDCCI

Farmers protest resulting in losses of Rs 3,500 crore everyday: ASSOCHAM

Here is another way China is shafting India

Chinese scam that cheated 5 lakh Indians of Rs 150 crore busted

The kind of manipulation done by chinese to first gain access and then monopolize Indian markets is common knowledge. Just imagine the damage done to Indian economy in the form of shuttered factories and unwmployed workers.

This is not unique to India alone. The damage done to US and west is altogether on another level. Whether it is industrial espionage, IPR violation or Cyber attacks, China does it all without any scruples.

And then there is Covid. More than a million have been murdered in India itself and this is a conservative estimate. Millions more have died in rest of the world including important countries like US and Brazil. The extent of economic destruction is yet to be gauged. So complete and pervasive it is.

If this is not war then I do not know what is.

As far as the respect of China or lack of it is concerned, the fact is that it is the so called democratic states including India that are losing respect ar a fast clip both in the league of nations as well as among their domestic audience because of their inability to respond to China's machinations. And when a state is either unable or unwilling to protect and avenge its citizens, sooner or later it will loose its relevance. China has played its cards well and now the ball is in the enemy's court. It is they who have to respond.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby AshishA » 11 Jun 2021 22:57

ramana wrote:XJP authorized it and hence no one else took the fall. The Western Theater Commander got reassigned. So it's a military debacle.

That makes sense. Considering XJP is now all powerful, no one can blame him. Western theater Commander retired from military and is now vice chairman of national people's congress foreign affairs committee. Seems like he is a favorite of XJP.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby LakshmanPST » 12 Jun 2021 01:44

I guess the only way to resolve the standoff at remaining areas is to do something similar to what we did on Kailash Range.
----
Top Indian Army brass to discuss LAC situation at high-level meeting next week
https://www.aninews.in/news/national/ge ... 611183438/

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ramana » 12 Jun 2021 01:48

The rot in SC can't be blamed on China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby SSridhar » 12 Jun 2021 09:11

ramana wrote:XJP authorized it and hence no one else took the fall. The Western Theater Commander got reassigned. So it's a military debacle.

Absolutely correct.

It is true that that there have been factions in CPC since at least Mao's days. Lin Biao, Liu Shaoqi were prominent. Deng Xiaoping and Xi's father were banished. Even Zhou-enlai was suspected and suffered personally. Even later we had the Gang of Four, Shanghai Clique and now the Tsinghua Clique. Some may even belong to both cliques. Business as usual. But, Xi is in complete control of the political and military wings at present. This probably was not true in 2013. In any case, all cliques agree on certain things like India. So, action against India was not surprising and wouldn't cost Xi politically. So would be the action against Taiwan if it comes about. Every Chinese understands such actions. Failures go to the military. Even though CMC is under Xi and he is Commander-in-Chief, the fall guys would be the military top brass.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby AshishA » 12 Jun 2021 11:54

A very good interview on the recent events by Gen Rawat. Was smiling when he called pakis a rogue state.


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby chola » 12 Jun 2021 16:08

Look at where Cheen is spending its money and you can deduce where it is fighting its wars.

First and foremost, they are spending trillions on the commanding heights of technology, especially silicon chips. US, EU, Japan and Cheen are now locked in this race to create local production chains for this one critical component. The US had strangled Huawei from international growth (it is not dead and remains powerful in Cheen) and will do so for other chini companies coming up. This is life and death for the PRC as a leading technological state. This is their number one battle.

Secondly, they are spending trillions on infrastructure and transportation industries -- aircraft, ships and maritime, space including an explosion of private companies and HSR (which reduces need for aircraft imports, i.e. Boeing). This is dual use and will impact their military with new planes, ships and satellites. This is the crux of their power, the ability to flood any medium -- sea, air, land and soon space with machines for any number of "belts and roads" initiatives.

Together, they leave little time and resources for actually persecuting kinetic warfare. They will avoid war as much as possible until their chips, aerospace and other commanding heights industries mature.

If you are the US or India, it actually makes sense to force war early over Taiwan or Ladakh before their technological/industrial transformation is complete.

Our own lack of funds for the silicon chip and transportation -- especially in the upcoming theater of space -- could leave us beholden to others in the brave new de-globalized world coming up.

The worst set up is for India to spend scarce funds on kinetic warfare only to wait for a chini attack that never comes while they spend theirs on their industries. If you spend on current state warfighting materiel then use that materiel to fight them now.

If not, then it is better to spend on the technology race that the Sino-American rivalry is fueling or else be left behind.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby darshhan » 12 Jun 2021 18:41

chola wrote:Look at where Cheen is spending its money and you can deduce where it is fighting its wars.

First and foremost, they are spending trillions on the commanding heights of technology, especially silicon chips. US, EU, Japan and Cheen are now locked in this race to create local production chains for this one critical component. The US had strangled Huawei from international growth (it is not dead and remains powerful in Cheen) and will do so for other chini companies coming up. This is life and death for the PRC as a leading technological state. This is their number one battle.

Secondly, they are spending trillions on infrastructure and transportation industries -- aircraft, ships and maritime, space including an explosion of private companies and HSR (which reduces need for aircraft imports, i.e. Boeing). This is dual use and will impact their military with new planes, ships and satellites. This is the crux of their power, the ability to flood any medium -- sea, air, land and soon space with machines for any number of "belts and roads" initiatives.

Together, they leave little time and resources for actually persecuting kinetic warfare. They will avoid war as much as possible until their chips, aerospace and other commanding heights industries mature.

If you are the US or India, it actually makes sense to force war early over Taiwan or Ladakh before their technological/industrial transformation is complete.


Our own lack of funds for the silicon chip and transportation -- especially in the upcoming theater of space -- could leave us beholden to others in the brave new de-globalized world coming up.

The worst set up is for India to spend scarce funds on kinetic warfare only to wait for a chini attack that never comes while they spend theirs on their industries. If you spend on current state warfighting materiel then use that materiel to fight them now.

If not, then it is better to spend on the technology race that the Sino-American rivalry is fueling or else be left behind.


Very Good point Chola ji. To put it succintly it would be stupid for China to start a kinetic war with India. And it would be stupid for India not to start a kinetic war with China. China needs to avoid a kinetic war to continue rising. India needs a kinetic war to survive.

Ofcourse our window for starting a kinetic war with China will diminish within a couple of years. After that all bets are off.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby ParGha » 12 Jun 2021 21:01

darshhan wrote:
chola wrote:If you are the US or India, it actually makes sense to force war early over Taiwan or Ladakh before their technological/industrial transformation is complete.

And it would be stupid for India not to start a kinetic war with China. China needs to avoid a kinetic war to continue rising. India needs a kinetic war to survive. Ofcourse our window for starting a kinetic war with China will diminish within a couple of years. After that all bets are off.


Marshal Mikhail Tukhachevsky made the same argument in late 1920s, basing it on the weak and underdeveloped state of Soviet economy and technology. It created a "Cult of the Offensive" among the Soviet officer corps (though Tukhachevsky had been purged by 1937), and caused massive problems in 1941 because of the weaknesses in Soviet defensive training.

While Tukhachevsky was a visionary and created many modern principles of warfighting (like operational art), the Soviets ultimately won World War 2 by following his theoretical opponent's (Svechin's) theory. Svechin had argued for a long war of attrition, using Soviets' natural advantages and any other advantage they could create, with alternative defensive and offensive operations.
Last edited by ParGha on 13 Jun 2021 17:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby S_Madhukar » 12 Jun 2021 22:42

The arrest of these Chinese guy and all the scams seems to imply that India is a fertile ground for Eleven to test out all out hybrid warfare. Not that it is not being done in the West but in India it seems more brazen may be because of the MoU confidence, network, and of course lazy and easily corrupted systems. Nice field training for juniors… self funded activities a la Baki printing presses and may be to shift theatre east

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Vips » 13 Jun 2021 06:57

Army gets special boats for Pangong Tso.

The Army has finally begun to get initial deliveries of specialized boats for deployment at Pangong Tso, which comes amidst the continuing military confrontation with China in eastern Ladakh.

The Army had inked two contracts for the specialized boats six-seven months ago. The first Rs 65 crore one was for 12 fast patrol boats, with
advanced surveillance gear and other equipment, from defence PSU Goa Shipyard.

The second deal was for 17 troop-carrying, flat-bottom fibreglass boats from a private shipyard at Goa, which also supplies such vessels to the
Navy. “These boats can swiftly transport around 20 soldiers from one location to another. The initial deliveries have begun,” said a source on Saturday.

The Indian and Chinese armies in February undertook successful troop disengagement from both sides of the Pangong Tso, the 134-km long lake, two-thirds of which is controlled by China as it extends from Tibet to India.

China, however, till now has refused to complete the stalled disengagement process at the remaining face-off sites in HotSprings, Gogra and Demchok. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) also continues to block Indian patrols from going to their traditional Patrolling Points-10, 11, 11A, 12, and 13 in the strategically-located Depsang Plains area.

The Army had seven-eight years ago inducted 17 QRT (quick-reaction team) boats for patrolling the Pangong Tso, which is located at an altitude of 13,900-feet.But after the stand-off erupted with China in eastern Ladakh in April-May last year, the urgent need was felt to further augment its capabilities to match the heavier Type-928B patrol boats being used by PLA there, as was reported by TOI earlier.

Both Indian and Chinese soldiers actively patrol their areas of Pangong Tso on foot as well as on boats during the summer months. Before the Army got the QRT boats, it used to be quite hamstrung by its then outdated slow-moving boats. The PLA often used to even disable the Indian boats by ramming into them with its heavier boats.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Paul » 13 Jun 2021 17:18

What does the above post have to do with Indian border security.
Last edited by SSridhar on 13 Jun 2021 19:14, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Vikassh's post has been moved to 'Neutering & Defanging' Thread


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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Maria » 14 Jun 2021 21:51

Prem Kumar wrote:https://swarajyamag.com/news-brief/china-conducting-final-trials-of-its-xian-h-20-strategic-stealth-bomber-opposite-ladakh-report

China accelerated the trials of their stealth bomber, at Hotan airbase.


If I remember correctly, they have already deployed H-6s in Hotan. If they are placing the H-20 at Hotan, it has to be an India specific move. Ideally we should have had a long range bomber programme but the next best bet is to speed up our AMCA programme with alacrity. A stealth bomber is bound to have stealth fighters as escorts and if we could win the air war over Tibet, we will be able to win on the ground as well.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby csharma » 15 Jun 2021 10:25

prof Kondapalli writes that China is upping the ante.

https://www.deccanherald.com/amp/opinio ... 97609.html


Despite a written agreement to disengage, China is upping the ante

China escalated the situation by sending in additional troops or re-inducting troops in the forward areas on the border


Btw apparently there is a picture of Agni V mobile on the internet now. Message?

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Pratyush » 15 Jun 2021 11:42

Danger of India-China border standoff escalating into war is still there

An interview from ambassador Gautam Bambawale.

PS;- the you tube option is not working in the editor.
Last edited by Pratyush on 15 Jun 2021 13:05, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Ashokk » 15 Jun 2021 11:50

csharma wrote:Btw apparently there is a picture of Agni V mobile on the internet now. Message?

Image

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Pratyush » 15 Jun 2021 12:39

Long view from Ladakh: Galwan’s lesson is that India needs allies against China. Three kinds of alliances are possible

The bigger puzzle is what does India do in the short to medium term when this asymmetry continues to exist? What does India need to do in the next five to six years to ensure its territorial integrity? The answer is simple and straightforward: We have to build balancing or countervailing coalitions with other nations which will support us in international forums as well as continue to sell us the modern weapons, platforms and technologies that we will need. Such coalitions will enable us to maintain our strategic autonomy from the political and military coercion China is applying in Ladakh.

There are three groups of nations or countries we can consider for building such coalitions. The first is the major democracies of the world. Examples of such countries are the US, France, UK, Japan and Australia. The Quad is one example of such a balancing coalition. This is why the Quad has developed quickly over the past few months in crystallising as a power centre in the Indo-Pacific, even as Chinese aggression has grown and its threat to India become more apparent. The second group of countries are those in China’s periphery and here both Russia and Vietnam come to mind. Third, are nations in India’s neighbourhood such as Bangladesh. We can consider one or a group of coalitions with these countries.



Not really sure abut the possibility of Russia joining an anti China alliance. Or for that matter countries in Indian periphery joining Indian against China.

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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Postby Pratyush » 15 Jun 2021 12:52



‘Imposing Political Costs On China Works Better Than Militarising LAC’

NEW DELHI: A year after the Galwan clash distrust between India and China has resulted in both sides have increased troop presence along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh. That means India needs acclimatized reserves, the financial implications of which may be difficult to sustain over a long period of time, says Lt Gen Rakesh Sharma (Retd), former commander of 14 Corps. Speaking to StratNews Global Editor-in-Chief Nitin A. Gokhale, Gen. Sharma said India needs to revisit doctrines of the past and prepare itself for a new character of war. Arzan Tarapore, South Asia Research Scholar at Stanford University, who joined in the conversation, said China may be better positioned to absorb the financial costs of maintaining an increased military presence along the LAC but India would do well to impose political costs on China.


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