India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

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ramana
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

vera_k wrote:How British imperial history does (and doesn't) shape the Sino-Indian border dispute
Then in 2019, the Indian government did what Moorcroft had suggested two centuries earlier — it took Ladakh under direct control, separating it from neighboring Kashmir after effectively annulling the autonomy of Jammu and Kashmir state. Gardner writes that imperial Britain regularly considered taking Ladakh under direct control because of its anomalous status, given its traditional links to both Tibet and Kashmir. In the end, it left well alone. The Indian move elicited sharp criticism from Beijing and likely shaped China’s approach last year to the disputed frontier.

All that is nice history. What we now have is the separation of Ladakh from J&K and thus ended the colonial exigencies.
Her last line is erroneous. The PLA preparation was right after Dokhlam: winter clothing exercises with Canadian troops in the Arctic all show prep work.
Also, Hari Nair take a look at the importance of Leh.
I still think that Leh was the objective in June 2020.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

If Leh was the objective and the PLA was prepared to take it by force. Then the clash at Galwan and subsequent pause makes no sense. Because they had the advantage and prepared forces. Presumably along with significant logistical capacity to bring any offensive to its logical conclusion.

It was the IA that had been caught unawares. Nothing the IA could do in the first few hours post the clash would have made any difference to the PRC plan. If they had planned to take Leh.

Unless the timing of the clash ruined ability of the PLA to utilise the element of surprise. By giving the Indian army an opportunity to reinforce that front. Before the PRC was really ready for the offensive.

That's the only explaination which makes any kind of sense.


The tinfoil hat says. PLA men on the ground thought of themselves as a bunch of wolf warriors. Who when told that they will have to withdraw from the land they had taken over. Lost their cool and attacked Indian men on that fateful night. Resulting in the standoff.

Only eleven would know what's the real story.
Last edited by Pratyush on 14 Jul 2021 15:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aditya_V »

There is clearly a lot of fake news floating around. But a Media house is spreading such fake news.

This is an example where Official agencies are forced to respond to Fishing expeditions and fake news.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

Reporters should wait for any official confirmation before they start reporting on such stories.

It is too sensitive a topic for media speculation and kite flying.

PS: isn't this the second time Ajay Shukla has been contradicted by the services?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Deans »

Pratyush wrote:Reporters should wait for any official confirmation before they start reporting on such stories.

It is too sensitive a topic for media speculation and kite flying.

PS: isn't this the second time Ajay Shukla has been contradicted by the services?
Ajai Shukla has a well known anti Govt agenda, but I'm surprised a supposedly responsible paper chooses to publish his kite flying.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Prem Kumar »

We let these things off lightly. He will continue publishing fake articles. There must be a price to pay for publishing & propagating fake news.

Papers must be given a choice to either do a front-page, bold retraction with apology, provide "action-taken report" against the reporter within a particular time-window or face legal action.

Then, there must be a 3 strikes and you're out rule. Repeat offenders and media-houses will have privileges revoked, if the offense is repeated a 3rd time.

It'll still leave room for the media to do other skullduggery like hiding news, amplifying what they want & downplaying what they don't want known, shilling for foreign arms OEMs etc, but this can be a start.

Needless to say, any such step will go to the SC where liberal darlings like Chandrachud will salivate over such cases
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Deans »

Prem Kumar wrote:We let these things off lightly. He will continue publishing fake articles. There must be a price to pay for publishing & propagating fake news.

Papers must be given a choice to either do a front-page, bold retraction with apology, provide "action-taken report" against the reporter within a particular time-window or face legal action.

Then, there must be a 3 strikes and you're out rule. Repeat offenders and media-houses will have privileges revoked, if the offense is repeated a 3rd time.

It'll still leave room for the media to do other skullduggery like hiding news, amplifying what they want & downplaying what they don't want known, shilling for foreign arms OEMs etc, but this can be a start.
Needless to say, any such step will go to the SC where liberal darlings like Chandrachud will salivate over such cases
Our I&B Ministry has been a disappointment. Govt's all over the world - incl. in the liberal west `manage' the media. We have not done so. Govt is the largest advertiser for the media, it can make or break a publication with their advertising budget. Govt does not use this tool enough.
Certain reporters known for their anti-establishment views can simply be blacklisted.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Karan M »

Well Javdekar has finally been shown the door. Let's see how his successor shapes up to be.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Lisa »

Prem Kumar wrote:We let these things off lightly. He will continue publishing fake articles. There must be a price to pay for publishing & propagating fake news.

Papers must be given a choice to either do a front-page, bold retraction with apology, provide "action-taken report" against the reporter within a particular time-window or face legal action.

Then, there must be a 3 strikes and you're out rule. Repeat offenders and media-houses will have privileges revoked, if the offense is repeated a 3rd time.

It'll still leave room for the media to do other skullduggery like hiding news, amplifying what they want & downplaying what they don't want known, shilling for foreign arms OEMs etc, but this can be a start.

Needless to say, any such step will go to the SC where liberal darlings like Chandrachud will salivate over such cases
Why is there no organised daily press briefing from the Government Of The Republic Of India?

Half these issues would cease to exist if people were called liars by such a conference at 09:00 in the morning and more to the point, such a conference should become a reference point to what the truth is. It is unfortunate but in my opinion this government has absolutely NO media skills at all.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xwfw_6 ... 2361.shtml
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by nachiket »

Article by Maj Gen (Retd) BS Dhanoa

Rebalancing forces against China: An ongoing process or a paradigm shift?
A news report dated 28 June 2021 in Bloomberg makes the assertion that India has undertaken ‘a historic shift’ towards an offensive military posture against China by redirecting 50,000 additional troops (and new equipment) to its Northern border at different locations. It goes on to suggest that whereas before commanders had to adopt a defensive posture against Chinese threats, this rebalancing from west to north provides them offensive-defence options, thereby, making the overall deterrent posture against China that much more robust. This claim also finds mention in other online news platforms and print media. While the facts mentioned in various reports are correct in a bare minimum sense, it is their interpretation of perceived effects, as also past decisions that enabled such a rebalancing, which require a more in-depth look to view the issue pragmatically.

The India-China standoff in Eastern Ladakh shows no signs of any thaw, other than disengagement at Pangong Tso and the Kailash Range. While the onset of the summer campaigning season did witness a renewed push by both sides to bolster capabilities and play mind games. It was evident last year, from the bloody fight at Patrolling Point 14 in Galwan Valley in June and shrill Chinese reactions to Indian preemption along the Kailash Range in August, that this was no ordinary India-China standoff along the line of actual control (LAC). By then, both countries had built up substantial forces and these have been maintained at more or less the same levels. So, coming back to the curious case of the historic shift of 50,000 troops, it has definitely not occurred all of a sudden. The build-up of infrastructure and forces has been as per a capability development plan, based on a series of classified assessments of strategic threats that have been underway since 2006-07 onward (the author has been involved in two such studies to look at transformation of the army), and directions of the China Study Group (CSG) for the development of infrastructure in the border regions with China. A quick glance at the timeline of military tensions of the past decade along the Indo-Chinese border is instructive to arrive at a few reasoned conclusions about the rebalancing of forces.

The Chinese claims in Eastern Ladakh, the Central Sector (Himachal and Uttarakhand), Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh are well-known and documented. Ever since 1993, a series of border protocols and agreements between India and China have been signed and adhered to (though more in the breach by China), till the arrival of President Xi Jinping at the helm of affairs in 2013. That year saw a provocative buildup of troops in the Depsang Plains in Eastern Ladakh and was only resolved after a series of talks over three weeks in April-May 2013. The following year, on the eve of President Xi’s first visit to India, Indian and Chinese troops faced off at Chumar in SE Ladakh over Chinese road building activity in what India considered its territory. It was resolved after 16 days, with India building up nearly a brigade-sized force there. The most serious standoff occurred in June 2017 near the India-Bhutan-China border tri-junction in Sikkim on the Doklam plateau. It involved India intervening on Bhutan’s behalf to prevent Chinese road construction across a very narrow portion of the Torsa River, which could have allowed Chinese troops, in times of conflict, to pose a faster threat to India’s Siliguri corridor, bypassing defences. The standoff lasted over two months with both countries building up forces up to division size with reserves in depth areas. The Indian Air Force and Indian Navy were also involved. While it was resolved after parleys at the highest level, the Indian Armed Forces, having wargamed a Pak-China collusive threat scenario for nearly a decade when Doklam transpired, were now faced with the actual prospect of having to earmark dedicated forces for such an eventuality, without giving up on territorial claims in any of the disputed areas. Then, the PLA upped the ante in April 2020 in Eastern Ladakh and we are where we are today.

The recap of Sino-Indian military tensions has a two-fold objective: First, to highlight a growing threat, of which India’s strategic leadership and its military have been aware for nearly a decade (if not more), and second, to point out that if today in the Ladakh Region, and in Arunachal, India is capable of positioning additional military hardware and forces, maintaining and sustaining them over extended periods, right close to the friction points, it is because of the culmination of processes that were conceived way back at the turn of the century and given an initial impetus by the UPA government, and which have been vigorously followed through by Prime Minister Modi in both his tenures. There’s no denying the sustained and comprehensive allocation of funds for infrastructure development that the NDA government has pumped in over the last seven years. Ladakh and Arunachal are better connected by rail, road, and air than they’ve ever been. It is India’s better connectivity to its far-flung border regions that may have indirectly contributed to China’s belligerent posturing.

There’s a plethora of force accretions and major acquisitions that’s been undertaken by all three services since 2012 with China as the primary adversary. Concentrating primarily on the Army and a few Air Force platforms, the army accretions and equipment range from additional infantry divisions for Eastern Command, the raising of the Mountain Strike Corps (the second division possibly still under strength), long range rocket and missile artillery, EW units, air defence, the M777 light gun, and logistics infrastructure for supporting additional troops in high altitude all year round and in difficult terrain. Of late, the rebalancing of forces from the West includes the reassigning of roles of the two infantry divisions of the Mathura-based offensive corps (which was a secondary charter for them in any case, under the dual tasking policy of military operations) and additional forces for the Central Sector as well as a corps headquaters for controlling all additional troops in Ladakh for offensive options. The IAF has, of course, got the heavy strategic lift and tactical special operations capability in the C-17s and C-130Js respectively, the Chinooks for quick lift of troops and logistics as per the dictates of mountainous terrain in Ladakh and the Eastern sector, along with the formidable AH-64E multi-role attack helicopter. The newest augmentation to the IAF’s offensive capabilities being the Rafale multi-role combat aircraft, the sixth batch of which was inducted recently. It is also expecting to receive the S-400 Triumf surface to air missile system as per contract from Russia later in the year.

To conclude, the direction and pace of India’s military transformation is historic, at times forced by the hand of its neighbours, but mostly due to the slow yet deliberate rebalancing process that’s been ongoing for a decade now. The security set up may have been slow to react initially but you have to grant that the threats emanating now have been identified, definitely wargamed at the strategic and operational levels for some years now and the rebalancing of forces is but the culmination of processes that may not have been visible for some years had the Chinese not shown their hand so obviously since 2017. That their belligerence has coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic and India’s tightening of reins over peripheral borders only highlights that our policies may not match expectations all the time but they do deliver when the dragon is on your doorstep.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by k prasad »

There needs to be increased push on Cruise Missile inductions, especially those with 600-1000 km operational ranges, like Nirbhay and Shaurya, but most importantly, the ER-Brahmos. Disrupting PLA logistics to the Northern areas will be a priority in case of full-scale conflicts. The Qinghai-TIbet railway is about 600-1000 km from India, but thankfully, it has been built largely on elevated tracks on permafrost, so a significant disruption through broad series of missile attacks can be effective. G219 probably more difficult, but its atleast closer, until the alternate Xinjiang-Tibet road is built, and the S301 to Ngari is upgraded. Highways might be difficult to disrupt, but disrupting the railway can be a significant equalizer.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aditya_V »

G219 most vulnerable point is the climb from Xinjiang to Tibet just North of DBO, there are narrow valley and bridges accross streams.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aditya_V »

Anyone else heard of this

drdos-anti-drone-gets-its-first-kill-brings-down-hostile-drone-over-jammu-afs

https://twitter.com/PKRoyIAF/status/1415686397617348618

Any media reports of Drone brought down with DRDO soft kill Tech?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

^^^

The comment section is eye opening.

Having said so. I find the report to be credible. Because this technology has been trusted to keep the PM safe for sometime.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by jamwal »

Spoke a bit too soon, so edited.

https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/drone-sp ... e-station/
Another drone was spotted in the area of Air Force Station in Jammu city which was jammed and destroyed by using anti-drone technology by the Air Force. The drone was detected in the early hours of Thursday. Drones have been spotted in Jammu city over military installations and near the International Border in Jammu district ever since two drones used by the terrorists damaged an office building and caused injuries to two personnel at the Air Force station in Jammu on June 27, 2021.
These small drones are too short-ranged to be sent across from border till airport unless drones can be controlled from 15 km away. A lot of peacefool and pro-khali enclaves lie around airport. Must have flown from there.
Last edited by jamwal on 16 Jul 2021 15:27, edited 4 times in total.
Aditya_V
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aditya_V »

There is TOI report which states some sources saying DRDO softkill vs some sources saying Police shootdown

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 462185.cms
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

^^^ if the drone operator's are within India. Then the ESM systems should be able to pin point exactly where they are operating from.

Enabling rapid response teams to eliminate them.

PS don't really know what the landscape is like between the AFB and the TSP border. But if it's near by and relatively flat. Then drones can easily be controlled by 30 foot tall antenna. Or an antenna placed on top of a building or a tall tree at the edge of the border. But it is important to know exactly where they are coming from.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aditya_V »

Pratyush wrote:^^^ if the drone operator's are within India. Then the ESM systems should be able to pin point exactly where they are operating from.

Enabling rapid response teams to eliminate them.

PS don't really know what the landscape is like between the AFB and the TSP border. But if it's near by and relatively flat. Then drones can easily be controlled by 30 foot tall antenna. Or an antenna placed on top of a building or a tall tree at the edge of the border. But it is important to know exactly where they are coming from.
Its flat from Jammu till the Border, 99% these drones are controlled from Pak, the Shakargarh Bulge was deliberately given to them as advantage by the British to help them take Kashmir as per Martial theory, but Pakis failed.

The airstrip was built just before 1971 war as airfield were IAF aircraft damaged over Pakistan can make emergency landings, in fact during the war 1 Hunter while returning from Peshawar Counter air operation make a Bingo fuel landings and while landing found itself resting at the back of Truck/Dumpster for the construction work still going on, making it easy to transport the aircraft to AFB Pathankot.

It is the area where we have terrain disadvantage Flat land on Paki side, there is a concentration of PAF airbases Sargodha, Murid, Mianwali, Kohat, Peshawar, Kamra, Risalpur, with just a few IAF bases.

In between Karachi and Sargodha there are only 2 PAF bases, Jacocabad and Shorkot Road. and Pakis have 2 more airbases in Karchu0Maripur and Bholari.

That's precisely why Swift Retreat also used that space, like Operation Grand Slam and many failed operations.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by jamwal »

If it is flat, then how can a drone operator have direct line of sight to a small drone for a distance of 15km? That being said, how many drones have this range? The drone would also have to cross the border. Isn't it likely that troops on border will detect it?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

The operator doesn't require a line of sight. The antenna does. Besides a drone, if, able to carry a payload of upto 5 kg. It will also be large enough to be able to cross that distance.

The Japanese have several small drone helicopters for agricultural market that are quite small but have payload and range which is quite sufficient for this particular application. With minor modifications a small night vision divice can be fitted to them and they will be quite a challenge.

Even the small DJI camar drones have the required endurance to do the job. But they don't have the payload capacity.

So what you are looking at is a drone that is between DJI and the Japanese helo drone.


Exihibit 1 https://www.google.com/search?q=japanes ... 7GMkmcbB6M


Exhibit 2 agricultural quad copters with 5 liter pesticides capacity. One which is available in India. https://www.google.com/search?q=agri ... fnlQjy-kM
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Kakkaji »

All gaps in Indian borders will be plugged by this year end: Amit Shah
Union Home Minister Amit Shah Saturday asserted that unfenced gaps along India's over 7,500-km-long land border will be sealed by the end of this year, thus covering areas that lead to infiltration and smuggling of arms and narcotics.

He also asserted that India's security policy was either "influenced or was overlapping" with the foreign policy and it was only after Narendra Modi became prime minister that the country got an independent security strategy.

"I assure that there will be no gap in our fencing from 2022," he said.

Shah said about three per cent of the unfenced area leaves a "big gap" and makes the border vulnerable for infiltration of terrorists and other border crimes like smuggling of arms, ammunition and narcotics among others.

The Modi government has been plugging these gaps after resolving administrative obstacles and even by talking to neighbouring countries, he said.

"I believe that (ensuring) border security is (ensuring) national security," Shah said adding they are developing a "new model" of the border fence that cannot be cut or broken.

After Modi became prime minister, the country got an independent security policy.

"Our idea is to have peaceful relations with all but if someone disturbs our borders, if someone challenges our sovereignty, the priority of our security policy is that such an attempt will be replied in the same language," Shah said.

He said this security policy was a "big achievement" as the country wanted such a good plan.

"I believe without this (security policy) neither the country can progress nor democracy can prosper," the home minister said

Shah said India was working to soon develop an indigenous counter-drone technology, which is being carried out by technical organisations like the DRDO and some other agencies.

He added that the security establishment of the country is preparing a long-drawn project to thwart artificial intelligence and robotic technology enabled attacks from across the borders.


Shah gave out figures to showcase how the Modi government worked to enhance and fortify border security.

He said while only 3,600 km of border roads were made between 2008-14, the period between 2014-20 (Modi being the PM) it has seen a jump of 3.5 times with 4,764 km of these roads being constructed.

The budget for this job was enhanced from Rs 23,000 crore to 44,000 crore, a total of 14,450 metres of bridges were made during 2014-20 as compared to 7,270 metres made during 2008-14, he said.

While one border tunnel for transportation was made earlier, six tunnels have been made by the Modi government in the last one year while 19 such structures are in the pipeline, Shah said.

Similarly, a total of 170 km of border roads were resurfaced during 2008-14 and it was enhanced to 380 km after the Modi government came to power.

The cutting and formatting of roads along the China border has now been enhanced to 470 km per year as compared to the the earlier 230 km per year.

Shah said the government has sanctioned 32 more border roads measuring about 683 km for the Sino-India frontier.


"The prime minister believes that till border infrastructure is upgraded and strengthened the security forces will not be able to do their job properly."

The home minister stressed that forces like the BSF should take steps to ensure that border population is provided all basic amenities and that they do not migrate to other area because of these issues.

The officers of these forces should execute "out of routine" thinking and plan so that we are two steps ahead of the adversary, he said.

He asked them to maintain "regular touch" with their troops, resolve their problems and also take feedback from them.

BSF DG Rakesh Asthana said during the event that the force has made 61 drone sightings and unearthed 4 tunnels along the western front in the last one year.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by jamwal »

https://twitter.com/JaidevJamwal/status ... 7675444225

Indian T-72 in somewhere in Laddakh.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by viveks »

Why doesn't the army install land mines along the un-fenced border areas?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by anupmisra »

viveks wrote:Why doesn't the army install land mines along the un-fenced border areas?
Land mines, especially antipersonnel mines, are prohibited during peacetime by the UN. Otherwise, these would have been used along the LOC.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Pratyush »

IIRC, India is not a signatory to this treaty. There might be other reasons for not using land mines.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by bharathp »

Pratyush wrote:IIRC, India is not a signatory to this treaty. There might be other reasons for not using land mines.
IIRC snowfall/avalanches create a headache by moving the landmines from their original place and creating a hazard for "friendly fire"
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Deans »

bharathp wrote:
Pratyush wrote:IIRC, India is not a signatory to this treaty. There might be other reasons for not using land mines.
IIRC snowfall/avalanches create a headache by moving the landmines from their original place and creating a hazard for "friendly fire"
Yes, that's the reason. The LOC fence gets damaged from heavy snowfall too.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Aditya_V »

Well looks like Pakis will soon loose these drones too.

https://twitter.com/ANI/status/14183962 ... 668099.cms
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by jamwal »

There are mines along international border and LoC in J&K which become visible after rains and floods every now and then. Don't know if they are all placed by India or Pakistan or both.

Image
This anti-tank mine was discovered in Samba district recently.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by anupmisra »

Pratyush wrote:IIRC, India is not a signatory to this treaty. There might be other reasons for not using land mines.
You are right. While over 160 nations big and small have signed up, India, pakhanistan and chiniland have not yet done so.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ramana »

Xi Jin Ping visited Tibet and was about 15 km from LAC.
Speculation is it was a military preparedness review.
Two things since Galwan in this theater are NaMo wishing Dalai Lama on his birthday and the activation of Hashimara with Rafales with the extra Hammer buy.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ArjunPandit »

^^ could be. I was visiting 1962 wiki page again. In 1962 the first attacks were in then nefa at Thag la around october time. It was preceeded by severe criticism of Nehru by china/india and coincided with cuban missile crisis..
Given where we are here is my speculation
1. China may force or instigate paxis to open up another front around monsoon time or force india's hand like through a 26/11 style attack in say mumbai, kerela or elsewhere..or drone attack on a state assembly with massive damage forcing modi's hand to retaliate could be during run up to up elections late this year.
2. A monsoon/post monsoon time war similar to the timing of 1965 which limits india's hands/advances to make deep ingresses in punjab due to overflowing rivers or chances of being trapped through an infantry war and coupled with pre-emptive air force exercises to deny india air force advangage with paxtan along indo-pak border or common area like Shaheen VIII and IX,
3. China does late deployment/ingresses/occupation along with skirmishes along LAC for a suitable time like it did in 1962. pushing again india to brink, while tiring out the army after long deployments and an active war.
What i am not able to link is an international conflict that could distract US now. That is the weakest link in China's calculus where it does not have leverage over US in this case.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Ashokk »

Indian Army's counterterrorism division deployed to tackle China on Ladakh front
NEW DELHI: Seeking to tackle the Chinese forces, the Indian Army pulled out units engaged in counter-terrorism operations in the Northern Command area to deploy them along the Line of Actual Control in the Eastern Ladakh area some months ago.
The counter terrorism division was pulled out of operations from within the Northern Command area and deployed in the Ladakh sector many months ago.
"The Division-size formation (around 15,000 troops) was moved from counterterrorist operations to the Ladakh area to tackle any possible attempt by the Chinese to show aggression there," government sources told ANI.
The movement of the formation has helped the Army to maintain reserves tasked for operations along the Northern borders.
The reserve formation positioned in the Sugar sector is trained for high mountain warfare and conducts war games in the cold desert areas of Ladakh every year. Since last year, they have been heavily involved in the stand-off with China since last year.Army has filled in the gaps created due to the movement of the division to the forward positions using the resources available to it.
India has deployed around 50,000 troops in the eastern Ladakh sector and has helped increase the force levels by more than double.
In view of the Chinese aggression, the 14 Corps in Leh now has two divisions under it to take care of the China border including the Karu-based 3 Division. Some additional armoured units have been deployed in the area which is seeing heavy troop mobilisation since last year.
Last year in the April-May timeframe, the Chinese moved in troops swiftly from an exercise opposite eastern Ladakh and transgressed at multiple locations.The Indian government responded in a big way and deployed an almost equal number of troops there to keep the Chinese in check.
The situation had worsened to a point where bullets were fired on the China border after over four decades and 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives in a clash with the Chinese who have been hiding the number of their dead in the Galwan valley clash of June 15 last year.
The Indian Army has since then been a very high alert all along the LAC and further strengthening its positions on the LAC.
Vivek K
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Vivek K »

ArjunPandit wrote:^^ could be. I was visiting 1962 wiki page again. In 1962 the first attacks were in then nefa at Thag la around october time. It was preceeded by severe criticism of Nehru by china/india and coincided with cuban missile crisis..
Given where we are here is my speculation
1. China may force or instigate paxis to open up another front around monsoon time or force india's hand like through a 26/11 style attack in say mumbai, kerela or elsewhere..or drone attack on a state assembly with massive damage forcing modi's hand to retaliate could be during run up to up elections late this year.
2. A monsoon/post monsoon time war similar to the timing of 1965 which limits india's hands/advances to make deep ingresses in punjab due to overflowing rivers or chances of being trapped through an infantry war and coupled with pre-emptive air force exercises to deny india air force advangage with paxtan along indo-pak border or common area like Shaheen VIII and IX,
3. China does late deployment/ingresses/occupation along with skirmishes along LAC for a suitable time like it did in 1962. pushing again india to brink, while tiring out the army after long deployments and an active war.
What i am not able to link is an international conflict that could distract US now. That is the weakest link in China's calculus where it does not have leverage over US in this case.
Good analysis Arjun. The US is going through a very difficult period politically and that my be the distraction that allows China to strike. Also, China's large force structure is keeping its enemies engaged on all fronts - Taiwan, South China Sea, etc. So they will perhaps have the element of surprise. The only way to keep them out is pre-emptive action. Waiting for them to strike first may be too late.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Larry Walker »

I think we have broad consensus on this forum that PA will not go for all-out war in interest of self-preservation. If China is planning a swift blow and retreat before it snows in the mountains and needs Pakis to keep IA busy in the West - what will prevent IA from avenging the blow in the east by taking apart Bakistan now that PRC cannot militarily intervene on the ground post November? So why will Pakis risk it ?
Also if PLA attacks when IA is engaged with PA that will give free ticket for quad countries to combine forces on PRC.
So I think situation is more convoluted then we think - especially as IA has gone aggressive. IAF seems to have plans to wipe-out Nyingchi which will be the PLA node for logistics coming from dragon heartlands for any meaningful ops against India and hence PLA has deployed S400 there.
And I think the re-orientation of 50K troops from one of the Strike Corps to Ladakh is part of the IA strategy that we capture some land and have a bargaining chip against the quick blow and retreat tactics of PRC.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Vivek K »

So one of your assumptions is that "Quad countries will combine forces to counter PRC militarily". How likely is that in the Indian context? India does not throw its weight around - so will it be able to get such commitment from allies?
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by Deans »

Vivek K wrote:So one of your assumptions is that "Quad countries will combine forces to counter PRC militarily". How likely is that in the Indian context? India does not throw its weight around - so will it be able to get such commitment from allies?
Even without India, Quad countries have shown no inclination to throw their weight about. At best we can hope for Intel sharing - ideally satellite and electronic evesdropping info and Navel intel (acoustic signatures of Chinses submarines for e.g.). Even setting up an Intel sharing office - we have one for sharing info on merchant shipping in the IOR, will be as good sign.
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ArjunPandit »

i think these things take time..even in front of blatant aggression against their allies and friendly nations by nazi germany, britain france were quabbling and gave so many chances to hitler. I think these things will be set up in due course, unfortunately under US leadership. The way i see things changing, China is our best friend. Yesterday they literally gave a rebuke to Tony blinken and asked US to change their behaviour. That will lead to even
US democrats changing tracks. How far they will cooperate is a separate question. but we can reasonably assume, US would not want another soviet russia with a solid economy like of PRC. Supply chains will be shifted to near neighbours to lure them along with some crumbs for ASEAN countries. India's best bet is to sort their own house in order by clearing OFB and HAL quality and speed issues..
ArjunPandit
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Re: India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

Post by ArjunPandit »

Larry Walker wrote:I think we have broad consensus on this forum that PA will not go for all-out war in interest of self-preservation. If China is planning a swift blow and retreat before it snows in the mountains and needs Pakis to keep IA busy in the West - what will prevent IA from avenging the blow in the east by taking apart Bakistan now that PRC cannot militarily intervene on the ground post November? So why will Pakis risk it ?
Also if PLA attacks when IA is engaged with PA that will give free ticket for quad countries to combine forces on PRC.
So I think situation is more convoluted then we think - especially as IA has gone aggressive. IAF seems to have plans to wipe-out Nyingchi which will be the PLA node for logistics coming from dragon heartlands for any meaningful ops against India and hence PLA has deployed S400 there.
And I think the re-orientation of 50K troops from one of the Strike Corps to Ladakh is part of the IA strategy that we capture some land and have a bargaining chip against the quick blow and retreat tactics of PRC.
I would say PA will not be stupid to initiate direct conflict but that doesnt mean they will not create trouble...like 0.5 front..riots, media, FUD, and terror attacks...and feign deployment ...if they see chinese winning they might join the battle later on as well..they wont mind lending men to chinese too...a lot pf p2p interaction is happening b/w pak china..dont rule out ertrugruls, or the paxi version of tuskegee or eagle sqdns....they would be too keen to kill KphiRs
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