India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020 - Part 2

[ShivS]

This Maj.Gen has an interesting past.

It's the same bunch of ex officers, with a political agenda, who trash India and the army at every opportunity.
Col. Ajai Shukla, Maj Gen Ashok Mehta, Lt Gen Panag, Adm Ramdas & Adm Arun Prakash.

The background of the army officers has been discussed earlier. The wife of Adm. Ramdas was `human rights campaigner' & head of Greenpeace
India. His daughter married a Pakistani and she is in a senior position in the Ford foundation. Adm. Ramdas himself was the officer who arranged for a
whole carrier battle group to escort Rajiv Gandhi's Italian family, when holidaying in a restricted island. Adm. Arun Prakash's relative was indicted in the Navy war room spy case. Even in a liberal democracy, he would probably have faced a court martial.

Satya vachan

That said force levels on the China border are unprecedented. Cants are empty.

[Atmavik]

A former Colenel also made claims of clashes when there were none.

Also,

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/r ... 2019-08-17

"Six petitioners, including former Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak and Retired Major General Ashok Mehta, have moved the Supreme Court challenging the J&K Reorganisation Bill & the abrogation of Article 370."

I find the AM kak an interesting person. He was part of track thoo. He is also a Kashmir pundit.

[Paul]

This Maj.Gen has an interesting past.

He is brother to late Vinod Mehta, a poisonous anti Modi Journo, editor of Outlook and Debonair.

[Anoop]

From Maj Gen Mehta's (R) article in the Tribune

My meetings with soldiers deployed up front reveal an avoidably heavy troop density. At places, a company is deployed against a PLA platoon, with another company held in depth. Troops deployed at 17,000 ft are being rotated in two months. In Siachen, they are rotated in three months.

Interesting that a supposedly defensive posture, and that too in the mountains, from one of the most experienced high altitude warfare armies, has a 3:1 numerical superority. Also interestingly, other articles show the Tawang deployment to be primarily focused on aviation assets and MBRL artillery. My sense is that if the balloon goes up, the IA strategy will be to inflict damage in the Eastern sector by mass fires and take and hold territory in the Northern sector. The Eastern sector is less amenable to advance for the IA compared to the Northern sector, hence the relative strength of infantry in the Northern sector vis a vis the enemy.

Another surprising tidbit in the article that PLA's S400 batteries are deployed in Demchok. From the terrain, that is the least camouflage available compared to any other sector for the PLA, being relatively flat plains on either side. Why would the PLA deploy such long range assets so close to the border? Is it to cover the Thoise airfield? Anybody have insights into this?

[nam]

Demchok is the entry point in to Tibet. Indus valley is flat, where PLA would expect a air+land offensive from us.

[Suresh S]

thx Deans boss I knew some of it but not all of it.

[Manish_Sharma]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... .html?s=09

IAF chief says eastern Ladakh situation led to stretching of equipment to limits
Following the escalation in tension in eastern Ladakh in last year, the IAF deployed almost all its frontline fighter jets like Sukhoi 30 MKI, Jaguar and Mirage 2000 aircraft as well as its attack helicopters in the key air bases in eastern Ladakh and elsewhere along the Line of Actual Control.

IAF chief says eastern Ladakh situation led to stretching of equipment to limits
Following the escalation in tension in eastern Ladakh in last year, the IAF deployed almost all its frontline fighter jets like Sukhoi 30 MKI, Jaguar and Mirage 2000 aircraft as well as its attack helicopters in the key air bases in eastern Ladakh and elsewhere along the Line of Actual Control.
In an interaction at a defence conclave, Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal V R Chaudhari said the force is ‘much better prepared’ now to tackle any eventualities. (Ajay Aggarwal / Hindustan Times)

The situation that developed in eastern Ladakh last year required acclimatisation of a large number of IAF personnel and stretching of equipment to limits, but the force is "much better prepared" now in case there is a "long haul", Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal V R Chaudhari said on Thursday.

In an interaction at a defence conclave here, he also said that in the last one year, due to the challenges faced in the harsh atmosphere of the region, "we have realised, where we fell short" whether it was in terms of adequate clothing, shelters for people to live there.

"The situation that developed in eastern Ladakh last year was something that we were not very familiar with, particularly in the kind of environment that we needed to operate. It required acclimatisation of a large number of personnel at short notice, required stretching our equipment to limits, which some of it were not cleared for," he said. The IAF chief said, "we have moved equipment to altitude, well above the altitudes they were tried and tested for, when we acquired those systems."

Following the escalation in tension in eastern Ladakh in mid-June last year, the IAF deployed almost all its frontline fighter jets like Sukhoi 30 MKI, Jaguar and Mirage 2000 aircraft as well as its attack helicopters in the key air bases in eastern Ladakh and elsewhere along the Line of Actual Control.

At the conclave held at the Constitution Club of India, the IAF chief, in response to a question, also shared other challenges faced by the air force in the region. There was also the challenge of continuously rotating the manpower, to take care of their health, he said.

"As a result, over the last one year, we have realised, where we fell short, whether it was in terms of adequate clothing, shelters for people to live there. So, we have overcome all those shortages now, and I think, we are better prepared, in case there is a long haul, we are prepared this winter, much better than what we were last year," he said.

During the 89th IAF Day speech at Hindon Airbase on October 8, Chaudhari had asserted that the IAF's prompt actions in response to developments in eastern Ladakh last year were a testament to its combat readiness. The year gone by was "quite challenging yet extremely rewarding", he had said.

In response to another question on threats faced by India, he said, "I can assure you that we are fully aware of the threats that we face, and our acquisitions, training, and tactics developed to counter such a threat". The IAF chief also said that the ability to "seamlessly integrate" new weapons, new data, into the network and train its personnel to operate them, and keep them "future-ready" was the way forward.

"I can say with some degree of confidence that the way we go about analysing the threat perception, carrying out global scan of the political situation, of the acquisitions and modernisation of the adversaries, and to counter that we plan are our own acquisition for air force, and linked to that is training, and development of new tactics," he said.

"Every time you find there is an imbalance in technology and pure numbers, we counter it with better tactics and better training," the IAF chief added.

[fanne]

Also once upon a time in IA a very upright chief got promoted. By then the ethos of some senior officers had went to the gutter. Without going into details, many senior officers were called and asked to put in their papers or face court Martial. Thou shall not covet fellow brother officer significant others. That ethos was being voilated. A certain lt. general had to resign and he is now found writing articles and perhaps suing govt on its policies.

[nam]

The air chiefs comment does give confidence in our military leaderships professionalism. Despite having the longest disputed border in the world, we are constantly surprised by enemy action.

What would have been the situation if conflict had flared up in May 2020? Men would be fighting without cold weather clothing and not enough shelter?

I can understand politicians being delusional, but the military leadership being in constant hope of no war, is degrading our defences.

[ldev]

From Maj Gen Mehta's (R) article in the Tribune

Another surprising tidbit in the article that PLA's S400 batteries are deployed in Demchok. From the terrain, that is the least camouflage available compared to any other sector for the PLA, being relatively flat plains on either side. Why would the PLA deploy such long range assets so close to the border? Is it to cover the Thoise airfield? Anybody have insights into this?

To fully utilize the ~600 km OTH range of the S400 radar, locating it with maximum line of sight such as in a flat plain is beneficial. An S400 battery at PLAAF airbase in Ngari (opp/near Demchok) will enable it to cover the entire LAC west of Nepal all the way to Depsang. Even the next from the top 48N6E missile with it's 250 km range will cover that entire sector. And if the PLAAF has taken delivery of the 400 km ranged 40N6E then it is ever better from their standpoint.

[Manish_Sharma]

https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... ViW-Q&s=19

@daeroplate_v2:

Pak will be given whatever it needs by cheen to rebuild it very dated armour and artillery and position itself as a conventional threat on western front like they were in 80s and 90s

Idea is tie up our armour and artillery in usual pakcentric loop and prevent their long term pivot like IBGization and conversion of two of the strike corps to MSC format. Cats paws at all levels will be used to play up new pak threat

Top brass who are comfortable in what they grew up in T-series and BMP would also prefer not to rock the boat due to well established infra and establishments on pak front vs messy issues of new tactics and infra for cheen

[Karan M]

I sincerely doubt that. China asks for hard cash whenever it sells, something to Pak, and Pak experiences with Chinese stuff has been mediocre to say the least.

[Anoop]

To fully utilize the ~600 km OTH range of the S400 radar, locating it with maximum line of sight such as in a flat plain is beneficial. An S400 battery at PLAAF airbase in Ngari (opp/near Demchok) will enable it to cover the entire LAC west of Nepal all the way to Depsang. Even the next from the top 48N6E missile with it's 250 km range will cover that entire sector. And if the PLAAF has taken delivery of the 400 km ranged 40N6E then it is ever better from their standpoint.

Well, the same is true if they deploy it in the Depsang plains to get coverage all the way to Ngari, but there would be multiple ranges in the line of sight to all IAF airfields (Nyoma, Thoise and Fukche) except DBO. I don't know if IAF offensive assets are deployed in DBO, but is unlikely, therefore not such a threat to the PLA. Whereas, deploying it opposite Demchok aligns it along the Kailash range and easier to spot take off from the above airfields. But I am still surprised at such a forward deployment of such a long range and high value asset, rendering it vulnerable. My question is - doesn't the PLA have shorter range SAMs to protect Ngari, Rutok etc?

[Anoop]

https://twitter.com/daeroplate_v2/statu ... ViW-Q&s=19 @daeroplate_v2: Top brass who are comfortable in what they grew up in T-series and BMP would also prefer not to rock the boat due to well established infra and establishments on pak front vs messy issues of new tactics and infra for cheen

And yet, the pivot of 1 Corps towards the PLA theater is done. Was that without thought to reorganization, deployment, tactics and infrastructure?

[V_Raman]

Deans-2022 looks the most probable now. We will have some S400 regiments in place to handle Pak side and for Delhi if lucky. We better get the domestic dhanush line flowing and more varjas with good domestic ammunition flows. That is most important IMO.

[ldev]

Well, the same is true if they deploy it in the Depsang plains to get coverage all the way to Ngari, but there would be multiple ranges in the line of sight to all IAF airfields (Nyoma, Thoise and Fukche) except DBO. I don't know if IAF offensive assets are deployed in DBO, but is unlikely, therefore not such a threat to the PLA. Whereas, deploying it opposite Demchok aligns it along the Kailash range and easier to spot take off from the above airfields. But I am still surprised at such a forward deployment of such a long range and high value asset, rendering it vulnerable. My question is - doesn't the PLA have shorter range SAMs to protect Ngari, Rutok etc?

All the components of the S-400 i.e. radar, could be multiple radars depending on the options exercised by China, command center vehicle, at least 6 launchers, would be transported by air, most probably by multiple Y-20 heavy lift PLAAF transport. As such it would have arrived at Ngari airbase and then assembled and then driven to the deployment area via Highway G-219 which is the only major road that runs parallel to the LAC. So in all likelihood it is deployed somewhere just off G-219, not very far from Ngari airbase.

Deploying it further north in Depsang is a problem because it would have to be transported by air either to Hotan or to Kashgar and then it is quite a long journey on G-315/G-219 to an area opposite Depsang.

I would suspect that the S-400 in China is not a standalone system and is networked with shorter range systems such as the HQ-9 and the even shorter range HQ-7B. In all probability these shorter range systems are also deployed in conjunction with the S-400 both to network and to protect the S-400 just as the Pantsir does for Russian S-400 deployments.

You know the topography of that area better than me but I would suspect that looking at it from around Ngari any IAF aircraft would have to clear the Kailash Range by some 500 feet at least and that would give those aircraft an elevation of ~3500 feet above the S-400 radar sites i.e. line of sight of at least 130-140 km, could be much more, depending on exactly where the radars have been deployed.

[Aditya_V]

Is it possible we can some dedicated Brahmos on Himachal, Ladakh which should specifically target this if required in Lo-Lo-Low profile which should have at least, earlier when Brahmos was 300Km range in a complete low sea skimming profile it had 120Km range, launched behind Himalayan mountains , if it can hide behind mountain it could give very little reaction time to this radar, after the main radars are taken out, IAF should target the rest of the grid quickly in quick coordination, or a Rafale taking off from Ambala, could launch a Scalp some where over Uttarakhand, Himachal which moves to this radar in terrain hugging mode.

[nam]

More casualties in the Poonch ops. Sigh.

Another ops taken by enemy, where we are again caught off guarded. Despite preparing for 2 front, expecting more infiltration after afghanistan, we are again caught of guarded.

There will no response given the track 2 that is going on

[ShivS]

From Maj Gen Mehta's (R) article in the Tribune

My meetings with soldiers deployed up front reveal an avoidably heavy troop density. At places, a company is deployed against a PLA platoon, with another company held in depth. Troops deployed at 17,000 ft are being rotated in two months. In Siachen, they are rotated in three months.

Interesting that a supposedly defensive posture, and that too in the mountains, from one of the most experienced high altitude warfare armies, has a 3:1 numerical superority. Also interestingly, other articles show the Tawang deployment to be primarily focused on aviation assets and MBRL artillery. My sense is that if the balloon goes up, the IA strategy will be to inflict damage in the Eastern sector by mass fires and take and hold territory in the Northern sector. The Eastern sector is less amenable to advance for the IA compared to the Northern sector, hence the relative strength of infantry in the Northern sector vis a vis the ?

The posture is not defensive.

[RKumar]

More casualties in the Poonch ops. Sigh.

Another ops taken by enemy, where we are again caught off guarded. Despite preparing for 2 front, expecting more infiltration after afghanistan, we are again caught of guarded.

There will no response given the track 2 that is going on

Dheeraj,only word I can say for now!

[Rakesh]

https://twitter.com/TheWolfpackIN/statu ... 17601?s=20 ---> "What is happening in Afghanistan, we know its overflow can happen in Jammu & Kashmir. We have to prepare for it, seal our borders, monitoring has become very important. We have to keep an eye on who's coming from outside, checking should be done", says CDS General Bipin Rawat

[nam]

GOI is not being open about the poonch ops. It doesn't seem to want to escalate things and as usual the young men in the army will pay for this decision.

It could either be to divert us from an Chini op on lac/macmohan line or keep us away from Afghanistan.

[ramana]

The Army Chief, [Gen Manoj Naravane, has confirmed Chinese troop, training and infrastructure build-up from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh and, strangely, he wondered why this was happening, adding, “I wish I knew.”

The military escalation is on despite two face-to-face meetings between Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and his counterpart Wang Yi during the SCO meetings in Dushanbe in July and September. Jaishankar described the India-China relations at the “lowest ebb.”

We see both military and civil leaders saying same thing.
The General is right. No one knows what China wants?
No need for Maj Gen Mehta to be sarcastic.

The biggest enigma is why Galwan happened with cover and deception.
And why it didn't go to a shooting war?
And how stable is XJP regime in Beijing?
Very clear Indian military is in adequate numbers to ensure any Chinese initiation of war will lead to heavy casualties to PLA.

Its quite serious situation to have so many soldiers almost face to face confrontation.
And why? That's the question.

[csharma]

The only reason is that China wants to pressurize India because of India’s increasing closeness to US.

[Pratyush]

The only reason is that China wants to pressurize India because of India’s increasing closeness to US.

By putting pressure on India, PRC is insuring that India will get even more closer to the US.

A war at this juncture doesn't assure victory for the PRC as they don't have the logistics to sustain airpower over Tibetan plateau.

A ground offensive in the face of IAF tactical superiority will be disastrous for the PLA.

Secondly, if they were mounting pressure on India only then it would be something. But they are mounting pressure on all the neighbouring states directly or indirectly with the exception of Russia.

If you look at this phenomenon then it makes no sense for PRC to be doing what it's doing.

This could be a result of structural weakness of PRC which was exposed by covid.

Or it could be that Xi thinks that he has the right hand of communist destiny on his shoulders. Given his own family history and thinks that he can prevail against the world.

In the respect the general is right about not having any clear idea as to why PRC is doing what it is.

[brvarsh]

The only reason is that China wants to pressurize India because of India’s increasing closeness to US.

By putting pressure on India, PRC is insuring that India will get even more closer to the US.

It might be quite opposite, the real reason could be to distant India from Russia. The more pressure it puts, the more India will engage US, the more it engages US, the more Russia will distant itself from India and the more it would join hands with China against US.

[shyamd]

The Army Chief, [Gen Manoj Naravane, has confirmed Chinese troop, training and infrastructure build-up from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh and, strangely, he wondered why this was happening, adding, “I wish I knew.”

The military escalation is on despite two face-to-face meetings between Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and his counterpart Wang Yi during the SCO meetings in Dushanbe in July and September. Jaishankar described the India-China relations at the “lowest ebb.”

We see both military and civil leaders saying same thing.
The General is right. No one knows what China wants?
No need for Maj Gen Mehta to be sarcastic.

The biggest enigma is why Galwan happened with cover and deception.
And why it didn't go to a shooting war?
And how stable is XJP regime in Beijing?
Very clear Indian military is in adequate numbers to ensure any Chinese initiation of war will lead to heavy casualties to PLA.

Its quite serious situation to have so many soldiers almost face to face confrontation.
And why? That's the question.

Glad you posted this as I wanted to say the same.

Galwan is still kept under wraps because partly it got pretty close to a shooting match with arty loaded and ready.

We do tend to look only at our border and think that we are PLAs only Neighbour. The reality is PLA policy/doctrine has changed in recent years to:
- global leadership that should be respected by all countries including the US
- Other countries have taken advantage of china’s weakness over the years and that the border doesn’t reflect the original size of China

There are countries in the neighborhood that don’t have capabilities that IA has and have ceded thousands of acres.

Every time IA openly challenge PLA and it reaches the press the CCP Babus at the top tell PLA that we are global leader we need to show our strength.. hence why talks don’t go anywhere and the general tells Indian interlocutors that be happy with what you got.

It’s another matter whether realistically they can assume global leadership but that is the stated doctrine/policy that PRC has and PLA must follow

[Cyrano]

Its strange that our EAM Jaishankar and now Army Chief Naravane keep saying again and again in public "we don't know why the Chinese did/are doing what they are doing."

- if this is disinformation ("yeda ban kar peda khaney ka" strategy to use a mumbai slang expression) I'm fine with it.

- if really true, its a public admission of our inability to understand the adversary and anticipate such a move before it happens and worse, inability to figure out why it happened even after a year and half since it happened.
- its also a tacit admission that our intelligence network wrt China is inexistent or ineffective. Not very reassuring either. Just stop it maanyavars, serves no purpose.

- if these statements are being made to imply "my aggressor doesnt even have the decency to tell me why he aggressed me, aakhir mera kasoor kya hai? (what did I do to deserve this?) " - thats pretty pathetic. We should stop this sympathy craving bleating lamb shit. Ughhh!

If ever China explains the causes for its actions, it will just find something to blame India for being the cause - and we know that already - so wtf do we expect an explanation for?

Our EAM & Gernails should simply say:
"They aggressed unprovokedly, we gave a bloody nose and sent them back 2x in body bags, they continue to mobilise thinking they can scare us, so do we - to put the fear of god in them. They already made their first move and failed, we will make our first move at a time and place of our choice. The current stalemate is actually to our advantage. Each passing day, the aggressor's ability to make any impactful move on India is further diminishing since we are strengthening our border infra, our forces & their capabilities continuously. If they are stupid enough to try again, we'll teach them a bigger lesson."

End of story.

[rajpa]

Its strange that our EAM Jaishankar and now Army Chief Naravane keep saying again and again in public "we don't know why the Chinese did/are doing what they are doing."

- if this is disinformation ("yeda ban kar peda khaney ka" strategy to use a mumbai slang expression) I'm fine with it.

- if really true, its a public admission of our inability to understand the adversary and anticipate such a move before it happens and worse, inability to figure out why it happened even after a year and half since it happened.
- its also a tacit admission that our intelligence network wrt China is inexistent or ineffective. Not very reassuring either. Just stop it maanyavars, serves no purpose.

- if these statements are being made to imply "my aggressor doesnt even have the decency to tell me why he aggressed me, aakhir mera kasoor kya hai? (what did I do to deserve this?) " - thats pretty pathetic. We should stop this sympathy craving bleating lamb shit. Ughhh!

If ever China explains the causes for its actions, it will just find something to blame India for being the cause - and we know that already - so wtf do we expect an explanation for?

Our EAM & Gernails should simply say:
"They aggressed unprovokedly, we gave a bloody nose and sent them back 2x in body bags, they continue to mobilise thinking they can scare us, so do we - to put the fear of god in them. They already made their first move and failed, we will make our first move at a time and place of our choice. The current stalemate is actually to our advantage. Each passing day, the aggressor's ability to make any impactful move on India is further diminishing since we are strengthening our border infra, our forces & their capabilities continuously. If they are stupid enough to try again, we'll teach them a bigger lesson."

End of story.

Yes, this story of why Sugarpuppies are doing this is not known to us is really getting old. I sincerely feel we need a war time consigliori.. JS Tom Hagen is not good enough.

[RajaRudra]

Poonch ops, seems to be a mini version of Kargil. We may not even knowing the strength of infiltrators there and the routes getting used for reinforcement of new infiltrators and supply chain. If true, this time the cost should be some new land in addition to burning down the entire forest to get the current land back.

[Pratyush]

It might be quite opposite, the real reason could be to distant India from Russia. The more pressure it puts, the more India will engage US, the more it engages US, the more Russia will distant itself from India and the more it would join hands with China against US.

The PRC doesn't really have to do anything in order to get Russians to hate the Americans. Indian closeness to US will not be a factor in Russian decision making.

Infact the Russians if they have any brains, will try to keep India in good humour regardless of what our relationship is with the US.

Because of the independent streak in Indian polity. By attaching themselves to PRC. They will make sure that India is complelled to be anti Russia because of the PRC.

It's one of the paradoxical nature of the modern world. That both Russians and the US need India more than they need each other.

They will like to keep it that way.

BTW, both the PRC and the US will want India and Russia to have major disagreements with each other. So that Russia is forced into PRC corner.

The same way India will be compelled to be in the US corner. For advanced weapons and technology capacity.

[LakshmanPST]

Just wondering, is Poonch Infiltration a case of diversion planned by PA and PLA to keep LOC side busy before PLA launches offensive along LAC...?

[Cyrano]

Not likely. The force numbers involved in Poonch are a fraction of the troops in J&K, and none of the heavy artillery, radars, lift capabilities, air assets are needed there. Moreover, the ops to deal with it is not complex, the infiltrators cornered here can't threaten anyone elsewhere. Methinks this is PA needling us with some cojones from Afg ops while ceasefire prevents escalation.

[RKumar]

Poonch ops, seems to be a mini version of Kargil. We may not even knowing the strength of infiltrators there and the routes getting used for reinforcement of new infiltrators and supply chain. If true, this time the cost should be some new land in addition to burning down the entire forest to get the current land back.

What is the point of burning our own forest? I agree with your second suggestion, there must be a cost to Napaki. Only bombing PoK is not enough, we have to take back the part of our land. Why army is not allowed to cross the line and break the reinforcements channels. We must break the moral of these scumbags.

[williams]

I hope our intel folks have done a proper analysis on the mind of such totalitarian communist regimes. One of the things that come from them is plain hubris. They think they can take on IA or bully their way to make India agree to Zhou Enlai's 1959 claim line. They don't understand democracy or freedom of the press. When our EAM or for that matter Army chief speaks softly and diplomatically, they think they can achieve their goals by simply conducting some military exercise or showcasing their equipment. The only way they understand reality is when hard power is used. That is where the unexpected response of our boys in Galwan, and the occupation of the Kailash range make them back off and become defensive.

On our side, our establishment is always looking for a way out. If there are reasonable ways to negotiate their way out, they are ready for it. Escalation requires a lot of work. Some of the gaps related to equipment, procurement, and process bottlenecks need to be addressed with urgency and that takes time away from the normal development of foreign policy. Escalation is risky. So from that point of view, Chinese behavior is good in one way. Our folks need to act to safeguard the integrity of our borders. The old lethargic ways will not work.

[RajaRudra]

Poonch ops, seems to be a mini version of Kargil. We may not even knowing the strength of infiltrators there and the routes getting used for reinforcement of new infiltrators and supply chain. If true, this time the cost should be some new land in addition to burning down the entire forest to get the current land back.

What is the point of burning our own forest? I agree with your second suggestion, there must be a cost to Napaki. Only bombing PoK is not enough, we have to take back the part of our land. Why army is not allowed to cross the line and break the reinforcements channels. We must break the moral of these scumbags.

"Not a grass grows- why to bother" - A so called wise stupid used this comment for Aksai Chin.

My point about burning the entire forest is to - avoid army losses. The Jihadi rats hiding in dense jungle with a good ration just to kill our IA persons and in the process they don't care about losing their lives.

One way to avoid our lose is to burn down the areas to smoke them out.

[ramana]

Poonch is SSG payback for Afghanistan. A mixed force of SSG, LeT, and Taliban jihadis. They are getting shot. It's quite a local operation.

Cyrano, India is doing what you want said. Action speaks louder than words.
It's good they both say they don't know what China wants for that's the uncertainty.
Like I wrote long ago the integral of proobality function(China attack India)dt is 1.

However where is unknown.
When is in Sept to November time frame. Reason to grab territory and counter attack is difficult due to weather and terrain.

So saying they don't know keeps us on our toes and be prepared.

[ramana]

It's easy to be jingoistic behind a keyboard in a warm room.

It's only under Communists that Tibet as buffer was removed and a shooting war in 1962.
All signs are the Communist dynasty will vanish.
A shooting war will cement the bad blood for a few generations.
And only benefitee will be declining West.
It will continue the Western dominance of Asia.

[Anujan]

The Army Chief, [Gen Manoj Naravane, has confirmed Chinese troop, training and infrastructure build-up from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh and, strangely, he wondered why this was happening, adding, “I wish I knew.”

The military escalation is on despite two face-to-face meetings between Foreign Minister S Jaishankar and his counterpart Wang Yi during the SCO meetings in Dushanbe in July and September. Jaishankar described the India-China relations at the “lowest ebb.”

We see both military and civil leaders saying same thing.
The General is right. No one knows what China wants?
No need for Maj Gen Mehta to be sarcastic.

The biggest enigma is why Galwan happened with cover and deception.
And why it didn't go to a shooting war?
And how stable is XJP regime in Beijing?
Very clear Indian military is in adequate numbers to ensure any Chinese initiation of war will lead to heavy casualties to PLA.

Its quite serious situation to have so many soldiers almost face to face confrontation.
And why? That's the question.

I have a theory about this. Our jernails and diplomats cannot understand the thinking behind the Ladhakh ops by the Chinese, (which by the way caused loss of life, tearing up all border protocols, reversing decades of gain through diplomacy, pushing India closer to the quad, prodding India to take military mordernization seriously, and creating a generation of Indians suspicious of the chinese. All for what? A few meters here and there?). The reason they cannot understand the thinking behind the chinese ops, is because there was no thinking on the Cheen side. It was probably envisioned as a military drill to intimidate India, lasting a few days.

Cheen was taken off-guard in Doklam, the did not anticipate the Indian reaction. The withdrawal by Cheen was seen as humiliation there. Several news articles quoted Chinese diplomats saying "Doklam should never happen again"

The same jernail, who was in charge of Doklam area General Zhao Zongqi was retiring in november, wanted to give India a thappad by massing troops in ladakh area, intimidating India, moving the boundary to China's advantage and generally teaching India a lesson, so they appear with umpteen vehicles and artillery. Then motoring back, and everything goes back to business as usual, except with a newly humiliated and intimidated India. (This is the same level of Planning Pakis had in Kargil).

India did not fold.

Now they have driven into a mess, they cannot

a) Accept that they created the mess. Hence the gaslighting that somehow India was responsible. Numerous statements by India "What strategic advantage are you getting by pissing us off and creating a standoff, plunging the ties to a new low?" have no response, because the Chinese side really did not think it through. They thought India will roll over, take the slap, act as though everything was normal and "behave" in the future, because everyone is afraid of the great emperor 11. They cannot come back and proclaim that China is not a country bound by treaties and agreements, which they will violate as they see fit. Because China wants to pontificate and pretend they are some sort of a world leader in favor of a rules based order.

b) Withdraw. Because that is another insult heaped on injury. If they show up in the border, drive their trucks around, lose a few soldiers, destroy the carefully built up relations over decades, and then withdraw -- why did they do this stupid operation to begin with?

For all their reputation of a 50 year and 100 year view, they are actually quite stupid, driven by factionalism. They show the same level of strategic planning as Pakis ("We will take Kargil heights, then something something....then nuclear flashpoint in south asia....then something something....then all western countries mediation.....then something something...then India will vacate Siachen and give us Cashmere".

India gave them bofors shells. Thats what the Pakis got.)

This is what I fear:

Western theater commanders are getting replaced every monday. Probably because they all bluster about how they will teach India a lesson, take the posting, take a good look at the terrain and troop strength and then go back to emperor 11, and tell him "probably peace and tranquility is not such a bad idea, lets go back to banner drills and slogan shouting as before". Then they get promptly replaced.

Only other place Cheen can take action is in Arunachal.

Indian side has been unusually active in inviting journalists there, showing off pinaka and smerch and talking about Brahmos deployment.

[Cyrano]

That the Chinese build-up was a dumb ass show of bravado gone wrong and they got stuck in a H&D loop in Galwan crossed my mind several times, I always cast it aside not to risk complacency on our own side

Agree Ramana garu, India is actually walking the walk while talking a bit like a jilted lover post Mahabalipuram beach walks hand in hand sipping nariyal pani. MEA needs to snap out of such sugarpuppy-love and talk less in public. Unless it's FUD.

I'd rather we mostly don't complain, don't explain on these matters from uniformed folks and keep everyone guessing.