Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Post Reply
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Roland Garros ie French Open will allow Russian players unlike Wimbledon. That's a clear signal of change of attitude being brought about by Macron.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Strange, while Germany, France, and Italy suggest talks leading to peace, we have England, specifically Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, proposing arming UKR AND Moldova (which has always stayed out of this conflict) to "NATO-grade weapons"

UK & Allies Plan to Arm Ukraine, Moldova with ‘NATO Standard’ Weapons
SRajesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2061
Joined: 04 Aug 2019 22:03

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by SRajesh »

Saar
They have a bigger fish to fry (meaning Britshits)
EU not playing tango to their shenanigans in NI plus Sinn Fein have got majority in there this time
All shadow boxing onleee
UKR calms the EU will put Britshits on the racks and pull their joints
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Want to intro 3 topic

From this article:

Western allies ramp up rhetoric against Russia, want ‘defeat’ of Moscow

This time it is the US rep to NATO that is saying (nothing new in what she said, just that it is NATO source):
Washington wants “a strategic defeat of Russia” in Ukraine, U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith said on Friday.

“We want to see a strategic defeat for Russia. We want Russia to leave Ukraine, we want Russia to stop the violence, stop these indiscriminate brutal attacks on civilians,” Smith said during the think tank-led Strategic Ark conference in Warsaw.
But, what is disturbing is that they are starting to include "Indo-Pacific" in the conflict with Russia:
She said that the U.K. is “working with all of Europe so that Putin loses in Ukraine and to help the Ukrainians to prevail.” Victory means that Russia leaves all the territory it has invaded, and Putin and Russia must be brought to justice for war crimes, she said.

Western countries are also strengthening their relationships with Indo-Pacific nations, amid Beijing’s deepening ties with Moscow. Last week, European Council President Charles Michel and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen paid a visit to Japan and portrayed the country as a like-minded partner in the region.

Asked whether the U.S. is able to offer defense support in both the Indo-Pacific region and in Ukraine, Smith said that Washington could “walk and chew gum at the same time.” Joe Biden is on his first trip to Asia as U.S. president, arriving on Friday in South Korea before heading to Japan in a bid to reinforce partnerships in the region.
Now come the news that Morrison is out in Australia, replaced by a center-left party:

Australian voters deliver strong message on climate, ending conservative government's 9-year rule



This has implications for the Quad that meets in a few days and at which point in time there is a Modi-Biden meet scheduled
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Rsatchi wrote:Saar
They have a bigger fish to fry (meaning Britshits)
EU not playing tango to their shenanigans in NI plus Sinn Fein have got majority in there this time
All shadow boxing onleee
UKR calms the EU will put Britshits on the racks and pull their joints
I see it more of a US+UK split with EU, UK being the 51st state of the US (Australia the 52nd, and Canada the 61st)
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

A nice summary of Ukraine's agri industry:
https://telegra.ph/Black-Gold-Its-not-w ... hink-05-21

Add to it some oil & gas reserves, free transit money from Russia, a decent heavy industrial base, access to black sea, beautiful coast and some gorgeous women... Ukraine had it all but chose to play Russian roulette! What for?!! :roll:
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Ruble hits 2015 level against euro as EU prepares to pay for gas
The Russian ruble rallied to its strongest levels against the euro and dollar since June 2015 and March 2018 respectively on Friday, which analysts attributed to EU countries preparing to pay Russia for gas and to capital controls imposed by Moscow.

Russia said on Thursday that half of gas giant Gazprom’s 54 clients have opened accounts at Gazprombank, as European companies approach imminent deadlines to pay for their gas supplies.

..........................
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12187
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Someone had the bright idea to freeze Russian foreign exchange reserves.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Pratyush wrote:Someone had the bright idea to freeze Russian foreign exchange reserves.
And, they thought they could use the $300 billion to "rebuild" Ukraine !!

Until Yellen: Not legal for U.S. to seize Russian official assets
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

At times I wonder where are all the intellectuals in this world.

‘Deadly serious’: U.S. quietly urging Taiwan to follow Ukraine playbook for countering China
By LARA SELIGMAN

05/19/2022 04:32 PM EDT

U.S. officials are pushing their Taiwanese counterparts with new urgency to look to Ukraine’s success in fending off Russian forces as a blueprint for countering a Chinese attack, former and current U.S. officials tell POLITICO.

But there is little doubt that China is also learning from Russia’s botched invasion as it looks to reunify Taiwan with the mainland — with or without force. Experts say Beijing is likely adjusting its plans for the island to reflect and improve on Russia’s failures.

.........................
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

https://southfront.org/ukraines-nazi-co ... -cover-up/.
Then on the last week of February Zelensky did the unthinkable. He informed the US that he was now willing to allow US nuclear weapons into Ukraine.

The next day, February 24th, the Russian army crossed into eastern Ukraine. Thus began the Russian / Ukrainian war and the incredible barbarity of the AFU.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »




Recommended listen for all BRFites
Nihat
BRFite
Posts: 1330
Joined: 10 Dec 2008 13:35

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Nihat »

Cyrano wrote:https://southfront.org/ukraines-nazi-co ... -cover-up/.
Then on the last week of February Zelensky did the unthinkable. He informed the US that he was now willing to allow US nuclear weapons into Ukraine.

The next day, February 24th, the Russian army crossed into eastern Ukraine. Thus began the Russian / Ukrainian war and the incredible barbarity of the AFU.

Do we have the new Philip here and what's with all the agenda posting. The combat tactics thread was knowledge until derailed by a few as well.

Back to topic, US nukes in Ukraine seems like a WMD level BS campaign. I hardly believe this was a possibility because it just definitely meant war and even zelensky cannot be that stupid.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

You mean anyone posting stuff that differs from the agenda of CNN, BBC, NYT, WAPO etc?

Do you know or did you bother to check what elensly said at the Munich security conference? Do your homework buddy. Or join the elensly fan club since you seem to have no perspective or argument to offer. He's been designed for folks just like you.
bala
BRFite
Posts: 1975
Joined: 02 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Office Lounge

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

Kitji, that was informative talk - Chanakya level I would say - by Thomas Graham. There is some tacit understanding not to push things to extremes, instead, get back to substantive negotiations, Ukr is almost non-relevant in the scheme of things. Somewhere the US leadership dropped the ball and hence Russia was forced to get going on the Ukr tussle which is all about NATO's expansion. We don't know the final outcomes on such moves but one thing is very clear, the world will be different place when this settles down. Lots of basic assumptions will be questioned and people would pause about the nature of the big-boy fisticuffs.
sohamn
BRFite
Posts: 461
Joined: 27 Jul 2006 12:56
Location: the Queen of the Angels of Porziuncola
Contact:

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sohamn »

This thread has been derailed with all the agenda, feelings and emotions in replies. The goal of the thread was to stay away from partisanship (there is a thread to discuss agenda and opinions) and focus only on strategy / war tactics.
Roop
BRFite
Posts: 664
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Roop »

Nihat wrote:Do we have the new Philip here and what's with all the agenda posting.
Don't be such a sneaky coward. Philip is not here to defend himself so you see fit to bad-mouth him with your whiny crap? And what does Cyrano have to do with Philip?
... I hardly believe this was a possibility because it just definitely meant war and even zelensky cannot be that stupid.
You can't believe it? Well, guess what -- it's there for the whole world to see how stupid he can be. He took his country to war just on the say-so of Biden and BoJo, and the destruction of Ukraine is obvious to the world.
sohamn wrote:This thread has been derailed with all the agenda...
If presenting a point of view that does not blindly repeat what CNN, BBC etc. say 24x7 is an "agenda", then it's an agenda I appreciate. I hope Cyrano persists.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

sohamn wrote:This thread has been derailed with all the agenda, feelings and emotions in replies. The goal of the thread was to stay away from partisanship (there is a thread to discuss agenda and opinions) and focus only on strategy / war tactics.
Soham-ji, that is what this thread is for ---> viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7888&start=80

That thread link focuses on strategy / war tactics. This thread is to focus on the Geopolitical Fallout of Russia's decision to invade Ukraine.

Agenda, Feelings and Emotions are going to run high. We all have our biases and we all want "our" side to win. But if someone is being abusive to you or to another poster, you can report the post and moderators will take appropriate action.
skumar
BRFite
Posts: 244
Joined: 30 Nov 2008 08:22

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by skumar »

sohamn wrote:This thread has been derailed with all the agenda, feelings and emotions in replies. The goal of the thread was to stay away from partisanship (there is a thread to discuss agenda and opinions) and focus only on strategy / war tactics.
Why is a different perspective so hard to digest?

I do not agree with everything Cyrano says but he usually buttresses his points with whatever hazy information is available.

There is no one on this planet who has got a real hang of this war, not the Russians, not the Americans or the Europeans with all their satellites and technology and certainly not the Ukrainians.

Why single out someone on BRF?



I disagree with the title. Ordinary Americans, like people around the world, have shown that they can be fooled again and again.

And if you are looking for combat tactics and strategy, you are on the wrong thread! At least get that right.
Vayutuvan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12060
Joined: 20 Jun 2011 04:36

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Vayutuvan »

Nihat wrote:Back to topic, US nukes in Ukraine seems like a WMD level BS campaign. I hardly believe this was a possibility because it just definitely meant war and even zelensky cannot be that stupid.
Could you please comment on this tweet deleted by a 4* general?

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/retir ... ideo-game/
Retired General and MSNBC Contributor Posts War Footage from Ukraine — Except It’s From a Video Game :rotfl:
By Zachary LeemanMay 17th, 2022, 10:18 am
101 comments
...
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Folks,
The only emotion running high in me is sadness for Europe's moral, intellectual, political, military, industrial, economic and cultural decline - which this war has exposed mercilessly even before Europe has actually entered the war. Ukraine is NOT Europe, by any historical or contemporary political or legal definition. I fear its going to turn into disgust if Europe does anything more that what it has done until now.

The US which I admired for a bunch of things has become a total disappointment and a threat to Bharat simply because we Indians have a different world view.

I'm not pro-Russia for the sake of it. I have no personal stake in Russia, and only had a general interest in that country as a long time partner of India, as a cultural brother of Europe where I live, and I absolutely love Russian artists, painters and writers. Russia has long under delivered on its promise and despite more than 2 decades under Putin, didn't manage to get a post-soviet image makeover. Why the US spends so much energy trying to contain Russia might actually have little to do with Russia and more to do with the US itself.

However, since this SMO started, the more I read, researched, spoke to a few of my Russian & Ukrainian friends the more I've been convinced that:
A - Russia was alternately ignored and humiliated by the west out of spite and malice for decades now
B - 99% of things in Russia are mis reported or given a negative slant by default by western MSM
C - The more Russia tries to better itself and integrate the more its shunned, decried and humiliated
D - the west blatantly employs double standards when it comes to Russia based on only one fundamental and debatable point: the Russia is not a full western democracy - as if thats an unpardonable crime against humanity

Do you see some parallels with how India is treated and pressured even if we have zero conflicts of interest at present with the west? How often Indian democracy is questioned on baseless allegations? Arming a hostile, oppressive, corrupt, army & extremist militias controlled neighbour to weaken a big country - Ukraine vis a vis Russia is a model that has been used before : Pak vs India.

E - All western International Institutions be it political like UN, EU, OSCE etc or commercial like WTO, IMF etc which expound great values and principles or International law, treaties, conventions etc ie "the Rules Based Order" are just instruments of the west, by the west, for the west to sustain and reinforce its post-colonial dominance.

I see in the way the west (mis)understands Russia important pointers for India as well. And when India, which follows a basic civilisational template a lot more different from the west than that of Russia, as a rising power, starts to exert as much influence as Russia today does, will the west see us as a threat or tolerate and find some equilibrium with us? - this is what is my core interest.

In case India is seen as a threat as well, simply for being different since our posture will always be a lot less aggressive than Russia has ever been, how will the west use its system (point E above) to cajole, corner, pressure, contain or cut down India - which seems a more and more likely scenario to me, is of particular interest to observe, note, analyse and draw lessons from. And of course how Russia counters the west, playing chess moves against poker bluffs is of immense interest and value to closely follow and observe.

Lastly, as I've said in a post above, the Bharatiya and Hindu in me cannot ignore, tolerate or accept the grotesque atrocious behaviour of the Ukrainian regime and its supporters and their inhuman ideology being put into practice blatantly, with at least connivance but as more and more evidence suggests, wilful complicity of the western powers. I will continue to highlight them here (in the appropriate threads of course) and on a personal capacity fight against them with the means I dispose of. Because if we don't, such evil will one way visit upon us to erase us, or worse, to absorb us into itself.

You may correct my presumed facts, disagree with my views and make counter arguments - I'm fine with that. Only a fool and a bigot will never want to change his views, and I try not to be either.
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2500
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote: However, since this SMO started, the more I read, researched, spoke to a few of my Russian & Ukrainian friends the more I've been convinced that:
A - Russia was alternately ignored and humiliated by the west out of spite and malice for decades now
B - 99% of things in Russia are mis reported or given a negative slant by default by western MSM
C - The more Russia tries to better itself and integrate the more its shunned, decried and humiliated
D - the west blatantly employs double standards when it comes to Russia based on only one fundamental and debatable point: the Russia is not a full western democracy - as if thats an unpardonable crime against humanity
I have lived in Russia and done business with Russia and Ukraine for a decade. As someone with an interest in Geopolitics, I probably understand Russia better than any other country barring India. I completely agree with the above points. I'd like to put them in a more nuanced way

1. Russia would ideally like to partner with the West and not China, but NATO actions have pushed it into an alliance with China.
2. Humiliation by West, is really by US. I think they are still fighting the cold war.
3. Russia has been a fairly corrupt dictatorship (Ukraine, even more) and that has become a stick for the West to beat Russia with.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Vayutuvan wrote: .....

Could you please comment on this tweet deleted by a 4* general?
Not to be out done, apparently, Bush has been pranked by two Russian pranksters, just days after his "Iraq" gag. It is funny. On YT.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12187
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Deans wrote:
I have lived in Russia and done business with Russia and Ukraine for a decade. As someone with an interest in Geopolitics, I probably understand Russia better than any other country barring India. I completely agree with the above points. I'd like to put them in a more nuanced way

1. Russia would ideally like to partner with the West and not China, but NATO actions have pushed it into an alliance with China.
2. Humiliation by West, is really by US. I think they are still fighting the cold war.
3. Russia has been a fairly corrupt dictatorship (Ukraine, even more) and that has become a stick for the West to beat Russia with.
Hi,

I have a few questions and they're purely for me to understand the actual issue between the Ukrainian's and the Russians. I don't want to get into a judgement of either of the societies or the ruling elites.

1) why is Ukraine such a hot button topic for the Russians. So much so that, William Burns who is the current head of CIA as a State department officer wrote in 1997 and again in 2008. That any invitation to Ukraine from NATO will be seen as a hostile act by the full spectrum of Russian political parties.

What is the historical reasoning / logic behind this? ( I don't want to address the American actions in this discussion, if it can be avoided)

2) I understand that Ukraine wants to develop its national identity seperate from Russia. But does this desire totally prevent any possibility of co existence and trade relations between the two.
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2500
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Pratyush wrote: Hi,

I have a few questions and they're purely for me to understand the actual issue between the Ukrainian's and the Russians. I don't want to get into a judgement of either of the societies or the ruling elites.

1) why is Ukraine such a hot button topic for the Russians. So much so that, William Burns who is the current head of CIA as a State department officer wrote in 1997 and again in 2008. That any invitation to Ukraine from NATO will be seen as a hostile act by the full spectrum of Russian political parties.

What is the historical reasoning / logic behind this? ( I don't want to address the American actions in this discussion, if it can be avoided)

2) I understand that Ukraine wants to develop its national identity seperate from Russia. But does this desire totally prevent any possibility of co existence and trade relations between the two.
1. After what Russia went through in the GPW (or WW2) the last thing any Russian will tolerate is a hostile military alliance in the heart of Russian territory. It would have 50 million who were once Russia's allies, now not neutral, but hostile. A basic tenet of Russian national security is a buffer between it and any hostile state.

2. Russia had no problem with Ukraine pursuing closer ties with the West. Even now, its position is that it has no objection to Ukraine joining EU. Russia's concern has been with discrimination to the Russian minority in the Donbass, (earlier Crimea) to a point where the only solution (when Minsk-2 was reneged on) was military intervention. The other issue is the split within Ukraine, between Russian speaking Orthodox church people in the Eastern quarter and the ethnically Polish Catholics in the Western quarter. Ukraine had earlier balanced both groups, but in Zelenski's time had asserted Ukrainian independence, at the cost of promoting Polish/Catholic/Anti Russian influence and discriminating against the ethnic Russians.
Last edited by Deans on 23 May 2022 14:07, edited 1 time in total.
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12187
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Thanks for the clear response.

:)
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

There are persistent reports of Poland-Ukraine collusion, and recent signing agreements that seem like defense pacts that allow stationing of Polish (hence NATO through backdoor) troops in western Ukraine, allowing Polish nationals administrative positions in Ukraine govt etc. There are statements on borderless cooperation from Polish sides well, and claims on these lands. Poland President Duda is currently in Kiev mooching with elensly.

That is a serious compromise of sovereignty, state borders and citizen rights. I'm unable to figure out why Ukraine/US would do that? Just to be able to escalate if Polish troops on Ukrainian soil are attacked by Russian forces?

This move has bad karma written all over it.
Deans
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2500
Joined: 26 Aug 2004 19:13
Location: Moscow

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:There are persistent reports of Poland-Ukraine collusion,
This move has bad karma written all over it.
Yes, Russian media has reported the same. Poland has also stopped buying Russian gas.
Throughout Polish history, this sort of thing has never ended well for Poland.
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Poland being part of NATO thinks they can do whatever others can't., more likely trying to chew on more that can fit its mouth. After all, historically Russia has invaded Poland at every turn ! they think they have some opportunity to get back. .. too many agendas., too many cooks ..the pot is getting increasingly messy!!
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

They will be under the control of the Ministry of Truth?!
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Meanwhile elensly will be the chief guest at Davos World Economic Forum. Europe 's dance with the devil continues....

I have to express my grudging admiration for the formidable PR machine this regime keeps running and have no words for how willingly Europe continues to buy into its lies and deceit.
Shanmukh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3042
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Shanmukh »

kit wrote:Poland being part of NATO thinks they can do whatever others can't., more likely trying to chew on more that can fit its mouth. After all, historically Russia has invaded Poland at every turn ! they think they have some opportunity to get back. .. too many agendas., too many cooks ..the pot is getting increasingly messy!!
Kit-garu,
It is actually a mutual thing. The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was an existential threat for Russia till ~1700. Poland has burnt Moscow at times - see the False Dimitri affair. Trying to snuff out the Orthodox faith and replacing it with the Catholic faith was something of a deep passion in Poland when it was strong. When the shoe got to the other foot, the Russians crushed Poland, it is true [though, most of Poland's wounds were self-inflicted, with an exceptionally greedy and recalcitrant aristocracy].

Now, Poland sees Russia as weak, and also wants to expand its influence in Ukraine. Ukraine [literally means borderlands] is something where Poland and Russia have clashed since aeons, which is why the western part is Catholic [with a sprinkling of Protestants] and the eastern part Orthodox. The actual Ukraineans have problems with BOTH Poland and Russia. Now, due to NATO, they are cosying up to Poland, but Ukraineans have dished out plenty of pain to Poland as well. In WW2, Poles were slaughtered by the Ukrainean Nazi collaborators.
Shanmukh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3042
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Shanmukh »

Pratyush wrote:
Deans wrote:
I have lived in Russia and done business with Russia and Ukraine for a decade. As someone with an interest in Geopolitics, I probably understand Russia better than any other country barring India. I completely agree with the above points. I'd like to put them in a more nuanced way

1. Russia would ideally like to partner with the West and not China, but NATO actions have pushed it into an alliance with China.
2. Humiliation by West, is really by US. I think they are still fighting the cold war.
3. Russia has been a fairly corrupt dictatorship (Ukraine, even more) and that has become a stick for the West to beat Russia with.
Hi,

I have a few questions and they're purely for me to understand the actual issue between the Ukrainian's and the Russians. I don't want to get into a judgement of either of the societies or the ruling elites.

1) why is Ukraine such a hot button topic for the Russians. So much so that, William Burns who is the current head of CIA as a State department officer wrote in 1997 and again in 2008. That any invitation to Ukraine from NATO will be seen as a hostile act by the full spectrum of Russian political parties.

What is the historical reasoning / logic behind this? ( I don't want to address the American actions in this discussion, if it can be avoided)
This goes deep into the history of Russia. Until ~1700, Poland [well, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth] and Russia were mortal enemies, and the two powers clashed in Ukraine. Western Ukraine - which is what Ukraine really is, eastern Ukraine was a Cossack area, not Ukrainean at all - was a place where both Poles and Russians tried to place their puppets, or play off one bunch against the other to gain an advantage against the other. The same thing happened in eastern Ukraine, BTW, with one major difference - Cossack atamans would ally Poland in one season, Russia in another, and try to gain advantages from both.

Poland being Catholic has historically tried to supplant Orthodox [Russians never tried that, BTW - even when Poland was part of Russia between 1815 and 1917, they never tried to wipe out Catholicism]. Poles would repeatedly get in alliance with the Popes and try all kinds of nasty tricks to destroy the Orthodox faith. This was always resisted, mostly successfully, by the Russians, especially east of the Dnepr river. Dnepr river is the division between eastern Ukraine [mostly Orthodox] and western Ukraine [mostly Catholic]. On the other hand, western Ukraine, despite never being Polish - Ukrainean is extremely close to Russian, less so to Polish, was Catholicised, first by Poland, and then by the Austrian empire, after Poland was destroyed and partitioned between Russia, Austria and Prussia.

In all this, Ukraineans were mostly puppets, with grudges against everyone - Poland, Russia, Austria, etc. All of them treated the Ukraineans brutally, all of them played power games that were disgusting. And whenever the Ukraineans got a chance, they paid back their persecutors brutally [here, you have some idea why the Ukraineans were so barbaric in WW2, slaughtering Poles, Russians, Belorussians, etc - they genuinely had grudges against everyone].

Now, especially after 2004, Ukraine has gone back completely to the Catholic part [Western Ukrainean elites dominate totally, and the easterners have been backed into a corner], and in alliance with Poland, is persecuting the Orthodox. This is the reason why the eastern part rebelled. It was most pronounced in Donbas and Crimea, but Kharkov and Zaporozhie are not any happier either. For the Russians, it is a throwback into history. The Poles and their Ukrainean allies persecuting the Orthodox in alliance with the EU [Pope]. They will react harshly to it, just the same way we react to Jihadis slaughtering dhaarmics in Pakistan/Afghanistan/Bangladesh. [Sure, the Indian state doesn't care, but the Indian state is not dhaarmic at all, as much as we might desire it to be, but the dhaarmics of India react harshly to it].
I understand that Ukraine wants to develop its national identity seperate from Russia. But does this desire totally prevent any possibility of co existence and trade relations between the two.
Ukraine doesn't really have a national identity. What you can call Ukrainean national identity is really based on two things a) Ukrainean language [almost Russian] and b) Catholic religion [Polish], This is why you see the Ukraineans claiming the Kievan Rus as their historical inspiration, but 11-13th century Kievan Rus was not even Ukrainean [It was Kievan RUS, not Kievan Ukraine]. It is a confused people struggling to find a national identity. And if they stop being hyper-anti-Russia, they will become Russia [just the way Pakistanis will become Indian if they stop being too Islamist].
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1528 ... TkYP0rHV0w ---> Flash: President Biden will have 'constructive and straightforward' with PM Modi on Russian invasion of Ukraine says US NSA.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

So europe is actually outbidding American consumers for diesel:

https://twitter.com/man_integrated/stat ... 6222026753
Perhaps we need to work towards incentivizing Gulf Coast refineries to ship more diesel to the East Coast rather than to Europe and LATAM, who are overpaying US buyers for our domestic diesel?

And approve/subsidize new pipeline and refinery capacity?
WHITE HOUSE MONITORING DIESEL SUPPLY ON EAST COAST, PREPARING POLICY ACTIONS TO MITIGATE SUPPLY CHALLENGES -OFFICIAL

BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS NOTED 'WORRISOME DECLINE' IN DIESEL INVENTORIES IN NORTHEAST IN RECENT WEEKS
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Rakesh wrote: https://twitter.com/sidhant/status/1528 ... TkYP0rHV0w ---> Flash: President Biden will have 'constructive and straightforward' with PM Modi on Russian invasion of Ukraine says US NSA.
That sounds like a 'kadi ninda' threat :P
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Great posts Shanmukh ji. Explains quite a few events, including reported attacks on Orthodox priests in Lviv and other places in w.Ukr.
It is a confused people struggling to find a national identity

So that's why they get attracted to extreme right supremacist ideologies borrowing symbols from Nazis and Norse gods! Some over compensation piskology in play there.
chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 32224
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by chetak »

Cyrano wrote:A nice summary of Ukraine's agri industry:
https://telegra.ph/Black-Gold-Its-not-w ... hink-05-21

Add to it some oil & gas reserves, free transit money from Russia, a decent heavy industrial base, access to black sea, beautiful coast and some gorgeous women... Ukraine had it all but chose to play Russian roulette! What for?!! :roll:

Russian roulette with a fully loaded revolver, no less

they have been deliberately led down the garden path by the amerikis who had their own fish to fry.
eklavya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2159
Joined: 16 Nov 2004 23:57

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by eklavya »

Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev resigns over Ukraine war, saying he has 'never been so ashamed of my country'
https://news.sky.com/story/russian-dipl ... y-12619768

Image
Post Reply