Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

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SandeepA
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by SandeepA »

The real defenses are to the immediate west of Donetsk and Harlivka cities, as yet unbroken after 3 months of war.
Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

YashG wrote:
Deans wrote:The reasons the Russians are taking time to take territory is that the Donbass line is probably the toughest defensive line built (over 7 years) in modern military history. There are fortified urban areas behind a river.
This is the donbas line deans ur talking about ?
Image
Taken from a video by rybar
It comprised of 2 parts:
1. The line parallel to the Severo-Donetsk river. The western slops was higher than the Eastern one and immediately behind it were
built up areas. The line comprised: Izyum- Lyman- Siversk- Slavyansk/Lisichansk. (2nd line and HQ around Slavyansk-Kramatorsk).
This line is broken and Ukraine has to fall back on its 2nd defensive line around Slavyansk-Kramatorsk). the Sversk-Bakhmut
line in your map looks temporary, as Sversk may fall soon.

2. Southern part: (South of Severodonetsk) - Zolote- Popasna- Kodema- Toretsk- NiuYork-Avdiivka- Velyka Novosilvka
This group has its HQ in Bakhmut.
Zolote, Popasnam Kodema have fallen.
Last edited by Deans on 06 Jul 2022 09:46, edited 2 times in total.
Deans
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

SandeepA wrote:The real defenses are to the immediate west of Donetsk and Harlivka cities, as yet unbroken after 3 months of war.
You are referring to the southern Donbass defenses (south of SeveroDonetsk), in my previous post).
That line has been partly broken and also outflanked from the North.

The line has been broken, both at Popasna and between Niu-York and Avdiivka.
On the north, the Russian capture of Lisichansk has outflanked the defensive line. If the Siversk-Bakhmut or the Slavyansk-Bakhmut road is cut, the defense line to the south, supplied out of Bakhmut, is weakened.
In the South, the only reason the Russians have not advanced in the between Zaparozhye and Velyka-Novo Silka is because they had too few men
(so do Ukraine). If Russia transfers forces from the North after the Lisichansk battle, (which Ukraine can't match because their forces in the north are casualties), that line will crack.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

Some combat footage. Kinda shows the amt of time to clear one trench line

https://t.me/Z4LPR/105
https://t.me/Z4LPR/113

You will need to open via telegram since the media is too big.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Seeing some reports that RU forces are going around Bakhmut from the south so not attacking it immediately, and going directly towards Sloviansk and Karamatorsk. To be confirmed.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Ukranian military people have sold 2 French Caesar self propelled arty systems to Russia for $120,000 each. Normally sold for 7 million. Reported by Bulgarian military web site.

https://t.me/loordofwar/25214
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Cyrano wrote:Ukranian military people have sold 2 French Caesar self propelled arty systems to Russia for $120,000 each. Normally sold for 7 million. Reported by Bulgarian military web site.

https://t.me/loordofwar/25214
Already refuted as fake this came from a tweet on June 20th and refuted by French source . Here is Twitter thread on it not sure why it took Russian propaganda folks two weeks to pick it up

https://twitter.com/r_decastelnau/statu ... FwtcCdNNQQ
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

The tweet talks about Caesars captured by Ru, not the ones sold. some random guys on twitter saying one thing and it's opposite doesn't make a 'refute'.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Reports of 2 himars destroyed, waiting full confirmation
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Cyrano wrote:The tweet talks about Caesars captured by Ru, not the ones sold. some random guys on twitter saying one thing and it's opposite doesn't make a 'refute'.
Bulgarian military site the telegram link refers to is (which is not a legit Bulgarian military site FYI) is referring to the tweet as the source. And if you go to the tweet it is refuted as incorrect and the tweet is from Jun 20th.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/ ... to-russia/
Last edited by John on 07 Jul 2022 01:28, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Cyrano wrote:Reports of 2 himars destroyed, waiting full confirmation
The claim is from the Russian Ministry of Defense per Alexander Mercouris. IF it is from the Russians then the chances are pretty good.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Russian hackers penetrated Ukra-een military intelligence systems and published online the names and photos of over a thousand personnel at all levels, active in Ukra-een and working abroad.
That's gonna hurt!
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Western propaganda will deny and cover up for as long as possible, the losses of Caesars and himars and the considerable weapons booty RU is capturing by the tonnes every day.

Then they will blindly relay a statement from elensly like "we have done a strategic equipment rationalisation and reduction to make our victorious forces more agile and effective for the battles to come in the coming months" "whatever Russia claims to have captured is unusable and makes no difference " followed by another Christmas list of presents they need to win against the Russian orcs definitively :rotfl:
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Cyrano wrote:Western propaganda will deny and cover up for as long as possible, the losses of Caesars and himars and the considerable weapons booty RU is capturing by the tonnes every day.

Then they will blindly relay a statement from elensly like "we have done a strategic equipment rationalisation and reduction to make our victorious forces more agile and effective for the battles to come in the coming months" "whatever Russia claims to have captured is unusable and makes no difference " followed by another Christmas list of presents they need to win against the Russian orcs definitively :rotfl:
How is French right wing lawyer posting in Twitter on Jun 20 and picked up by fake Bulgarian site a valid source for Caesar claim? In that thread people have asked for where his claim came from and he refused to reply. Please use some due diligence I am pretty sure if Russia had gotten them at Jun 20, they would have paraded it in Moscow by now or picked up dozens of other Russian news sites.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

NRao wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Reports of 2 himars destroyed, waiting full confirmation
The claim is from the Russian Ministry of Defense per Alexander Mercouris. IF it is from the Russians then the chances are pretty good.
Apart from Russian sites, a pro Ukraine source also confirmed it. Both sides gave the same location.
2 HIMARS destroyed along with the ammo supply.
Also, Russian channels showed a clip of a M-777 battery destroyed outside Sversk and its ammo supply captured intact.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Deans wrote:
NRao wrote:
The claim is from the Russian Ministry of Defense per Alexander Mercouris. IF it is from the Russians then the chances are pretty good.
Apart from Russian sites, a pro Ukraine source also confirmed it. Both sides gave the same location.
2 HIMARS destroyed along with the ammo supply.
Also, Russian channels showed a clip of a M-777 battery destroyed outside Sversk and its ammo supply captured intact.
Source for this I didn't see anyone from Ukraine side confirm this, in fact they released a photo of one being reloaded? Ukraine gov has denied it and supposed proof has been refuted neither video doesn't show any HIMARS see article below:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u ... -launchers

Not sure why all the attention towards HIMARS only one ammo depot has been confirmed as carried out by HIMARS with rest being done by Tochka or Vilkha (which seem to appearing now indicating newer ones being built or moved from Kyiv) or 155 mm artillery.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Deans wrote:
NRao wrote:
The claim is from the Russian Ministry of Defense per Alexander Mercouris. IF it is from the Russians then the chances are pretty good.
Apart from Russian sites, a pro Ukraine source also confirmed it. Both sides gave the same location.
2 HIMARS destroyed along with the ammo supply.
Also, Russian channels showed a clip of a M-777 battery destroyed outside Sversk and its ammo supply captured intact.
The 2 destroyed HIMARS were part of a set of 4 from the US. My understanding that the US is providing 4 more, and the UK and Germany 3 M270 each, making a total of 10 more. So, Ukraine should have 12 HIMARS/M270 somewhere down the line.

A long support tail.

On the topic of location, were they close to the line of action? Someone mentioned one was around Khatkiv and the other destroyed HIMARS south of it. If true, then they must be using rather short legged rockets.

Some info on the M270 and M142. Ukraine is expected to have 6 of each (2 HIMARS claimed to be destroyed). The M270 are from UK and German storage.
Last edited by NRao on 07 Jul 2022 18:12, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Ukrainian forces in Snake island, Ukraine claims as many 30 vehicles were left behind by Russia

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... jJEB8SO-Lg
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Now, why would the Russians bring 30 vehicles to a rock in the sea barely a sqkm in area? As gifts surely...
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:Now, why would the Russians bring 30 vehicles to a rock in the sea barely a sqkm in area? As gifts surely...
Seems similar to the Ukrainian flag hoisting ceremony at the Kharkov front last month. Russian MOD has a very different version. Will be better to wait a few days to see if anyone is occupying it, rather get get into a Russia vs Ukraine claim war.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

John wrote: Not sure why all the attention towards HIMARS only one ammo depot has been confirmed as carried out by HIMARS with rest being done by Tochka or Vilkha (which seem to appearing now indicating newer ones being built or moved from Kyiv) or 155 mm artillery.
There is attention on HIMARS because Ukraine and NATO have touted it as a weapon that will change the course of the war.
The only verifiable claims for either side are occupation of territory. In that, Russian MOD has been a lot more accurate than Ukraine.

The MOD briefing also had info about the destruction of a single Czech SP gun and a S-300 launcher and there there was visual proof.
If I have to choose between a Russian MOD claim (repeated by an analyst like Alexander Mercouris, or a generally pro Ukraine channel like Al Jezeera) and the Ukraine MOD denial, I would tend to believe Russia. I do not however believe any Russian info on casualties.

A large number of people in the Donbass are pro-Russia, treated as 2nd class people by Ukraine. They can recognise a HIMARS, especially when every medium of communication in Ukraine has featured it. All it will take is one phone call (cell phone network is intact) to his friend in the DPR/LPR militia for the location to be known to Russia.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

A point about TV clips of Russian and Ukrainian MLRS:

The Russian drones are not as sophisticated as US drones. They do not automatically give the position of the enemy when they pass over. That gets manually calculated, based on the flight path of the drone and other variables.
Russian TV clips of MLRS firing, show the whole sequence of target being identified, MLRS moving out of the forest into a firing position, firing solution being calculated (not as automated as US), firing and scooting away to a new position.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

However Russian counter battery fire using WLRs is reported by AFU survivors to be very fast and effective. They say if they don't leave the area within a couple of minutes after firing, Russian shells rain down on them.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Cyrano wrote:Now, why would the Russians bring 30 vehicles to a rock in the sea barely a sqkm in area? As gifts surely...
May be got jealous of NATO arms and wanted to started supplying to Ukraine as well :D Anyway Ukrainian helos have been seen ferrying captured equipment (probably small arms and rockets) from Snake island for past few days. This likely indicates they no plan to put any forces on ground to hold it, just likely put some remote surveillance devices and move on.


I doubt they can move a landing ship to retrieve any of vehicles especially since it seems Russians caught on to what Ukraine was doing and decided to bomb the landing pier couple hours ago with a missile strike.


The MOD briefing also had info about the destruction of a single Czech SP gun and a S-300 launcher and there there was visual proof
I assume you referring to these

Some are stating this is Ukrainian 57 mm gun mounted on a truck but who knows
https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... jJEB8SO-Lg

S-300 crazy footage
https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/sta ... jJEB8SO-Lg
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

Deans wrote:A point about TV clips of Russian and Ukrainian MLRS:

The Russian drones are not as sophisticated as US drones. They do not automatically give the position of the enemy when they pass over. That gets manually calculated, based on the flight path of the drone and other variables.
Russian TV clips of MLRS firing, show the whole sequence of target being identified, MLRS moving out of the forest into a firing position, firing solution being calculated (not as automated as US), firing and scooting away to a new position.
Interesting that you highlight this. From the US PoV, this conflict is moving way too slow. Which lead to my comments about the HIMARS/M777 were not designed for this conflict.
Cyrano wrote:However Russian counter battery fire using WLRs is reported by AFU survivors to be very fast and effective. They say if they don't leave the area within a couple of minutes after firing, Russian shells rain down on them.
It is relative to the experience of the AFU survivors.
Deans wrote: A large number of people in the Donbass are pro-Russia, treated as 2nd class people by Ukraine. They can recognise a HIMARS, especially when every medium of communication in Ukraine has featured it. All it will take is one phone call (cell phone network is intact) to his friend in the DPR/LPR militia for the location to be known to Russia.
Yeah. Not much has changed since the days of "Black Hawk Down".

___________________

It is extremely difficult to manage (in this case unsymmetrical) chaos.

And, I am dead sure the Russians are not revealing their hands. They are, in my thinking, somewhere between 20%-30%, may be 40%. They will not go beyond a certain limit at any cost - until NATO itself enters the conflict
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

John wrote: I assume you referring to these

Some are stating this is Ukrainian 57 mm gun mounted on a truck but who knows
https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... jJEB8SO-Lg

S-300 crazy footage
https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/sta ... jJEB8SO-Lg
John, My post refers to the Russian daily MOD briefing (accompanied by video clips wherever available), not a twitter account of Ukrainian origin.
In the S-300 post, one might wonder how a Ukrainian filmed (as original content) a Russian soldier in action.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

I doubt if there is anyone more qualified to comment on RA's counter battery fire capability than AFU survivors these days :)

AFU is a child of Russian army, of late confused and conflicted with NATO methods rammed down its throat by US & UK. RA will know them intimately and that's why their force ratios as aggressor are defying conventional wisdom. Agree, Russia has a lot more up its sleeve than they have put out in the battles so far. If NATO gets cocky they will be surprised unpleasantly.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Cyrano »

Ukra-een's nombrilisme on snake island tells us they can't think of anything more useful to do. But what can we expect when a country has a media monkey for President?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Deans wrote:
John wrote: I assume you referring to these

Some are stating this is Ukrainian 57 mm gun mounted on a truck but who knows
https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... jJEB8SO-Lg

S-300 crazy footage
https://twitter.com/spriteer_774400/sta ... jJEB8SO-Lg
John, My post refers to the Russian daily MOD briefing (accompanied by video clips wherever available), not a twitter account of Ukrainian origin.
In the S-300 post, one might wonder how a Ukrainian filmed (as original content) a Russian soldier in action.
Just posting things from Twitter as they easy to link than other media.

UAWeapons posts clips from the conflict taken from Ukraine and Russian military sources.

2nd is from Russian account posting a Russian soldier blowing up Ukr S-300, but I believe the clip may be dated based on foilage. That's the only S-300 vid I ran into past few days so thought you were referring to that.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by IndraD »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -recruits/

Don’t make decisions without me, frustrated Volodymyr Zelensky orders general
Ukrainian president rebukes military commander over draconian travel restrictions that would have kept army recruits from visiting families

Outgunned in the main Donbas battleground, the Russian army has captured town after town with its grinding tactics based around artillery bombardments. Last weekend, Vladimir Putin celebrated capturing the whole of the Luhansk region which makes up half of Donbas, his priority objective.

In April, Mr Zelensky fired two of his top generals for being traitors
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Roop »

Cyrano wrote:I doubt if there is anyone more qualified to comment on RA's counter battery fire capability than AFU survivors these days :)
Pardon my ignorance, but what is "AFU"?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by dnivas »

AFU is ukr army
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by NRao »

And, he is right:

https://twitter.com/PutinDirect/status/ ... 8365956098

Embedded video worth watching:
Putin to West: You want to defeat Russia on the battlefield? Try it! But keep in mind that we haven’t even started anything serious yet.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

Cyrano wrote:However Russian counter battery fire using WLRs is reported by AFU survivors to be very fast and effective. They say if they don't leave the area within a couple of minutes after firing, Russian shells rain down on them.
There is a practical problem for Ukrainian artillery units in avoiding counter battery fire.
Their second line units are older men, unused to carrying 152mm shells from a storage area to a vehicle (to move to their next location). They are unsure about setting up the gun right, when moved to a new location. There is a fuel shortage. There is uncertainty about what new location is safe. All this makes Ukrainian units stay in their location longer than a professional artillery unit typically would.

Russian counter battery fire apparently takes marginally longer than what NATO would achieve (a Russian analyst mentioned that reserve crews lack the skills to do it faster), but this is offset by slower response time of Ukrainian units to move out.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Deans »

IndraD wrote: Don’t make decisions without me, frustrated Volodymyr Zelensky orders general
Ukrainian president rebukes military commander over draconian travel restrictions that would have kept army recruits from visiting families

In April, Mr Zelensky fired two of his top generals for being traitors
Sounds like Hitler in 1945.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by YashG »

NRao wrote:And, he is right:

https://twitter.com/PutinDirect/status/ ... 8365956098

Embedded video worth watching:
Putin to West: You want to defeat Russia on the battlefield? Try it! But keep in mind that we haven’t even started anything serious yet.
Sorry i cant understand this. If they were to seriously start something - what more would it have that we dont see yet.

One could be overt mobilization & More troops.
What else?
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

YashG wrote:
NRao wrote:And, he is right:

https://twitter.com/PutinDirect/status/ ... 8365956098

Embedded video worth watching:
Sorry i cant understand this. If they were to seriously start something - what more would it have that we dont see yet.

One could be overt mobilization & More troops.
What else?
Other than troops not much. RusAF poor performance is probably biggest eye opener cannot establish air superiority against a country that doesn’t even have much of an Air Force or a modern air defense system.

Back during Armenia-Azb conflict last year I know me and Philip discussed in that thread that supposedly Putin didn’t agree to request for Armenians for a NFZ to stop the TB2 and Israeli drones. Report stated that Putin did that because he was advised not to do so by his generals as RusAF can’t deal with Turkish F-16s working with Azerbaijan air defense (incl Barak-8). I thought it was BS article but looking back there might be some credibility to it.

Other big surprise is much vaunted S-400s haven’t made much of an impact, the conflict shows the importance of SHORAD systems that can deal with cruise, artillery and MLRS which both sides lack. Probably see increase in sales of a system iron dome and other counter-Ram systems.

Russian navy has its own share of problems it’s reliance on old outdated cruisers for fleet air defense proved to be critical mistake (Moskava). It had right idea with Gorshkov class FFG but it unf it doesn’t have enough thanks to Syrian conflict Russian navy seem to prioritize small ships simply cause it can throw Kalbir in there but these vessels can’t do much. May be Russians can hasten the construction of Gorshkov frigates and try to move a few more for air defense.
Last edited by John on 08 Jul 2022 10:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by ldev »

Operational pause to rest and recuperate or operational pause because they are short of artillery munitions because Ukraine has destroyed too many ammunition dumps recently? And without artillery directed by Orlan 10/30 UAVs the Russians cannot advance.

Russia taking 'operational pause' in Ukraine, analysts say
Russia’s Defense Ministry seemed to confirm that assessment, saying in a statement Thursday that Russian soldiers had been given time to rest.

“The units that performed combat missions ... are taking measures to recover their combat capabilities. The servicemen are given the opportunity to rest, receive letters and parcels from home,” read the statement, quoted by Russian state news agency Tass.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by Aditya_V »

I disagree, after first few days once the Russians have updated SAM software the Byraktars TB2 have crashed like flies and even the Ukrainians say they are useless along with other Turkish drones. Ukranian Airforce is not flying over the battlefield and is only operating out of Romania, Poland. NATO Awacs , Satellites are providing max coverage with a lot Western Sam's provided, Russian Su25, Ka 52 and drones are operating over the battle feild.

Even Ukrainian helicopters operating in Western Ukraine are shot down, so the Russians have control over the skies and Russian S400 shot down a Ukrainian Su 27 over Kiev in the 1st day of the conflict. Russian aircraft even bombed a Ukrainian flag planters on snake island.

Ghost of Kyiv propoganda notwithstanding, the Ukrainians have been continously helped NATO, Awacs, F35' s , satellite imagery Sam's etc. The RUaf has done very well in these circumstances.
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Re: Russian-Ukrainian War: Combat Tactics & Strategy

Post by John »

Aditya_V wrote:I disagree, after first few days once the Russians have updated SAM software the Byraktars TB2 have crashed like flies and even the Ukrainians say they are useless along with other Turkish drones. Ukranian Airforce is not flying over the battlefield and is only operating out of Romania, Poland. NATO Awacs , Satellites are providing max coverage with a lot Western Sam's provided, Russian Su25, Ka 52 and drones are operating over the battle feild.

Even Ukrainian helicopters operating in Western Ukraine are shot down, so the Russians have control over the skies and Russian S400 shot down a Ukrainian Su 27 over Kiev in the 1st day of the conflict. Russian aircraft even bombed a Ukrainian flag planters on snake island.

Ghost of Kyiv propoganda notwithstanding, the Ukrainians have been continously helped NATO, Awacs, F35' s , satellite imagery Sam's etc. The RUaf has done very well in these circumstances.
So far only few TB2 have been documented as shot down it’s not like their wreckage disappears these are big drones flying over Russian controlled terrritory. I do agree Jamming and presence of AD as probably made them harder to utilize and I think Ukrainian are holding back and using it for target spoting rather than as UCAVs.

Ukrainian AF is not flying out of Romania or Poland if you have proof post it, unless some how they can manage to extend the range they can’t even be flying from eastern Ukraine to be flying by Donetsk region. UkrAF is seen unless you can disprove all the videos out there but probably flying around 20 sorties a day (1/10th of RusAF) in fact both AFs are operating exactly the same. Just flying low and lobing rockets in parabolic flight path due to threat of Manpads. If I posted a operational vid I bet you can’t tell if it is RusAF or UkrAF because their tactics are the same. While we haven’t seen much in terms of bombing runs from either AF (other than bombing snake island).

I think it goes back probably strategic mistake by Russians to not invest in SEAD at the start of conflict as a result now in conundrum.
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