Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

The Military Issues & History Forum is a venue to discuss issues relating to the military aspects of the Indian Armed Forces, whether the past, present or future. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Post Reply
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Mod Note: Put source of image in post. Image has been removed.
Last edited by Rakesh on 02 Aug 2022 20:34, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Post Edited
bala
BRFite
Posts: 1975
Joined: 02 Sep 1999 11:31
Location: Office Lounge

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by bala »

US Used Drone Carrying Knife Missile to Kill Al-Qaeda Chief. The R9X Hellfire missile ditches the explosive payload for six blades to enable a precise kill. The missile also carries a crown of six blades that can deploy and shred the target during the impact. It appears the US used a missile carrying six blades to kill al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri during a Saturday drone strike. But surprisingly, none of al-Zawahiri’s family members or any nearby civilians were hurt in the attack.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/us-used-dron ... aeda-chief

// don't know how true this report states that MeriCans have 'flying ginsu' missile.
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

bala wrote:US Used Drone Carrying Knife Missile to Kill Al-Qaeda Chief. The R9X Hellfire missile ditches the explosive payload for six blades to enable a precise kill. The missile also carries a crown of six blades that can deploy and shred the target during the impact. It appears the US used a missile carrying six blades to kill al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri during a Saturday drone strike. But surprisingly, none of al-Zawahiri’s family members or any nearby civilians were hurt in the attack.

https://www.pcmag.com/news/us-used-dron ... aeda-chief

// don't know how true this report states that MeriCans have 'flying ginsu' missile.
This is apparently used by CIA exclusively for its fleet of Predators . No explosives except a detonator and used sheer kinetic energy hit to kill.

Image

https://www.wsj.com/articles/secret-u-s ... 1557403411


John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3447
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by John »

Interesting dynamics playing out Azerbaijan is taking advantage of the conflict and launched an offensive. If you recall Putin was able to get Armenian to concede in previous conflict promising his Russian deployment will prevent any future Azerbaijan attacks but I doubt he can do much with his forces tied up in Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kr ... 022-08-04/

Some footage of drone strikes launched by Azerbaijan they claim it is response to an attack but IMO seems preplanned offensive to chip away Armenian separatist defenses

https://twitter.com/zaidzamanhamid/stat ... PY-2jBl6zQ
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9305
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Grumble between Z & local mayors over billions of $$ pouring in , Z bypassing all regional control (mayos) and deputing own men in key position to control every penny https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ky-mayors/
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9305
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Amnesty International accuses Ukraine of endangering civilians and violating humanitarian law
Human rights group says Kyiv's use of schools and hospitals as military bases is putting civilians in harm's way

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... civilians/
IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9305
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Z is asking europa to instantly delver billions or else... https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... zdNAI06dhA
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s speech to the AUF summer camp

Aug 4, 2022. Transcript of his speech.
...............

In this conflict, NATO has two tasks.
Support Ukraine.
And prevent the conflict from spreading into a full-scale war between NATO and Russia.

...............
Raja
BRFite
Posts: 342
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Raja »

I wonder when this stupid war is going to end. The entire world's economy is being held hostage to these warring white factions. Stupidity of the highest degree.

Irony of it all is that Asians and Africans are continuously demonized as uncivilized and unsophisticated heathens, when it is the Western world that has been the source of most of the ugliest wars and weaponry.
skumar
BRFite
Posts: 244
Joined: 30 Nov 2008 08:22

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by skumar »

https://twitter.com/DagnyTaggart369/sta ... 9684418561

Dagny Taggart - Zelensky is in big trouble, first Amnesty International, now the German mainstream media publishes evidence of a huge corruption and his direct involvement. In my opinion his days are numbered, from “ hero “ to zero .

https://www.welt.de/kultur/plus24013023 ... enten.html
John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3447
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by John »

Raja wrote:I wonder when this stupid war is going to end. The entire world's economy is being held hostage to these warring white factions. Stupidity of the highest degree.

Irony of it all is that Asians and Africans are continuously demonized as uncivilized and unsophisticated heathens, when it is the Western world that has been the source of most of the ugliest wars and weaponry.
Tbh the war isn't the reason for inflation it is being blamed on it just for politicians to avoid the blame. But IMO it started even before the conflict due to:

- Ramped up demand post Covid (travel, spending etc).
- Ramped up government spending even before Covid by not just western nation but also other countries ( see Sri lanka).
- Low interest rates and policy makers acting like that has no impact.
- Idiotic stimulus programs by western nation especially US which added trillions that was unneeded and inflation isn't going to curb till that $$ is spend.
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

NRao wrote:NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s speech to the AUF summer camp

Aug 4, 2022. Transcript of his speech.
...............

In this conflict, NATO has two tasks.
Support Ukraine.
And prevent the conflict from spreading into a full-scale war between NATO and Russia.

...............
that reads as support to Ukraine is set at a certain threshold., idiotsky is there to somehow sell it to his people and get rid of people around him who say the truth. This war will not end in a year or two.

The smaller countries will default , economies crumble. , a new world order coming up
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

skumar wrote:https://twitter.com/DagnyTaggart369/sta ... 9684418561

Dagny Taggart - Zelensky is in big trouble, first Amnesty International, now the German mainstream media publishes evidence of a huge corruption and his direct involvement. In my opinion his days are numbered, from “ hero “ to zero .

https://www.welt.de/kultur/plus24013023 ... enten.html
It is called an off-ramp.

A few on YT (Duran, etc) have been calling this out for a few weeks now.

Aug 5, 2022, CBS News:

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1555701550319898625
The new CBS Reports documentary, "Arming Ukraine," explores why much of the billions of dollars of military aid that the U.S. is sending to Ukraine doesn't make it to the front lines: "Like 30% of it reaches its final destination."

Stream now: https://www.cbsnews.com/video/arming-uk ... =176116167
I doubt that even that much makes it to the front.

There are reports that some of the arms have reached Syria!!

What a waste of lives, monies, and time. No idea what was achieved by anyone.
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

Uke war is a gold mine for western especially American arms manufacturers. And idiotsky is probably the biggest arms dealer in the world. Will Russia meet its objectives?.. yes its becoming more clear as NATO avoids the final countdown!... poor and smaller countries will become more poor as an incredible amount of wealth moves to America
Way out ? Only one. Reduce dependence on American dollar. It should no longer be the defacto trading and reserve currency.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Agree. The west has realised Ukraine is a losing game now, Dem's coffers are full now for the time being and Ukr is producing no newsworthy story after snake island. Gradual shift of tone in western MSM from eulogies to St elensly to accusations of corruption and war crimes etc is indicative of his expiry date drawing near. His biggest buddy BoJo is all but gone. No wonder elensly has gone Vogue and started demanding Xi to interfere and mediate now.

Putin is the only one who can come to his rescue - out of gratitude - since thanks to this war, Russia which was on the verge of being a has been nation is once again relevant and a force to reckon with in international politics.
Raja
BRFite
Posts: 342
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Raja »

Jury is very much out on where Russia ends up as a consequence of this war. Temporary strength (or weakness) of rubble does not make (or break) a superpower. We will only see the full impact over the next decade(s).
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

May be, but it's already very clear that Russia will end up better positioned than it was before, isn't it? The west has thrown everything at them short of actually getting into direct war and so far haven't dented Russia much, au contraire exposed their own inadequacies and hypocrisy, not to mention poor leadership on the world stage. The Global South has become something discernable thanks to this and has been expressing it's discontent with the west quite openly and several initiatives have been launched to get out of the dollar hegemony yoke. Who could have imagined a few years ago a G20 like the last one ?!

How much Russia will capitalise on its new found or should we say rediscovered mojo indeed remains to be seen. It has some heavy structural negatives like demographics, few warm water sea ports, a too large territory and "desirable image deficit" to deal with.

But the trust and goodwill erosion the west is going through at the moment is more impactful than whatever Putin could have dreamt of inflicting by himself.
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Raja wrote:Jury is very much out on where Russia ends up as a consequence of this war. Temporary strength (or weakness) of rubble does not make (or break) a superpower. We will only see the full impact over the next decade(s).
Jury is and will be out for a while on the outcome of this conflict, and perhaps take even longer on a decisive outcome.

Meanwhile, we can say with a good deal of certainty that Russia has the upper hand in this conflict, that the sanctions have failed, and just related to "Russia" we have the Armenian, Serbian, Syrian, and Iranian conflicts simmering at a much higher temperatures than just a few months ago.

The Ruble certainly is not posing an immediate threat to the USD, and may not do so in the future either. But, cannot recall so many nations making side deals in their own currencies. This is a declared threat to the various institutions built around "United States of America" - IMF, WB, UN, ......

The sanctions have created open cracks within the EU - there in plain sight.

NATO is pivoting East - to the Pacific!!!

Take China into account and we have a even more unpredictable future. S. Korea just made an unsolicited offer, to Australia, for submarines, just after completely ignoring the Speaker of the US Congress.

Iran and Argentina have applied for a spot in BRICS.

Finally, Tom Friedman, of the NYT, has stated (and rightly so IMO) we could be headed for the FIRST world war, the other two were quarrels between Europeans and their colonies - so they did not count as "World war"s.

The only thing remaining, IMO, is for the poles to switch.
skumar
BRFite
Posts: 244
Joined: 30 Nov 2008 08:22

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by skumar »

NRao wrote: ..
Aug 5, 2022, CBS News:

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1555701550319898625
The new CBS Reports documentary, "Arming Ukraine," explores why much of the billions of dollars of military aid that the U.S. is sending to Ukraine doesn't make it to the front lines: "Like 30% of it reaches its final destination."

Stream now: https://www.cbsnews.com/video/arming-uk ... =176116167
...
The video has been removed within 2 days with an "explanation" from CBS.
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1556444605012385793
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

skumar wrote:
NRao wrote: ..
Aug 5, 2022, CBS News:

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1555701550319898625


...
The video has been removed within 2 days with an "explanation" from CBS.
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1556444605012385793
;)

Originals (as you said, have removed the originals):

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/arming-uk ... =176116167
Arming Ukraine | CBS Reports
Flooding a country with advanced weapons can have grave consequences, even when done with the best of intentions. This CBS Reports documentary goes inside Ukraine to get a firsthand look at how military aid gets from the border to frontline soldiers, and explores the difficulties of getting the aid to the fighters who need it.
Tweet asking if anyone has downloaded the vid. :)
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

The weapons supplied to Ukra-een had traceability problems since the beginning and it was acknowledged by US officials. They even said usual tracking mechanisms like RFID etc were disabled/removed.

There were also acknowledgement of the fact that AFU force structures, units, batallions were loosely defined, there were phantom units and off the record militias - the whole structure very nebulous.

Highly problematic given the huge number of weapons, vehicles, arms and ammunition from NATO and ex Soviet reserves that were supplied. Not to speak of aid funding that poured in to pay the salaries of the entire Ukr govt and administration from top to bottom AND all of its armed forces and militias of which there are many. There have been comments that elensly regime is fudging casualty figures to keep funds flowing. Which suited the west for a while since that also hides the reality of combat losses.

Interpol officers have already expressed concerns couple of months ago about this massive and unaccounted flow of arms into Ukra-een and the security risks it will create for Europe.

In fact Ukrainien born US senator Victoria Spartz has been running from pillar to post on all these issues but no one in Biden administration seems to care. Heck they left behind 40 or 80 B$ of stuff (or some such obscene number equivalent to a small county's GDP) in Afghanistan didn't they?

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

Hilarious video. Watch till the end...

https://twitter.com/Chopsyturvey/status ... -tZek8i7sg
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

A very interesting 2 hour discussion on all things Russian/Ukrainian, with Gonzalo Lira (a Chilean, married to an Ukrainian, living in Kharkov), Dima (of Military Summary fame on YT), Alex (of History Legends fame on YT), and Mark Sleboda (Ex-US military Intel, married to a women from Crimea, living in Russia as a Russian citizen)

They discuss everything from HIMARS, M777, post conflict, gov in exile, potential flipping of UKR armed forces (!! caught me by surprise), US/Polish intervention (Not NATO), ..............

120+ minutes long

skumar
BRFite
Posts: 244
Joined: 30 Nov 2008 08:22

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by skumar »

NRao wrote: ;)
--
Originals (as you said, have removed the originals):
---
Tweet asking if anyone has downloaded the vid. :)
Yes.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

The best entertainment money can buy:

Poland threatens to turn ‘all our cannon’ on EU in rule-of-law row
Ruling party steps up rhetoric by suggesting it could unseat European Commission’s Ursula von der Leyen
Poland’s national-conservative government has significantly toughened its rhetoric in its rule-of-law standoff with Brussels, threatening to turn “all our cannon” on the European Commission and if necessary build a coalition to unseat its president.

............
John
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3447
Joined: 03 Feb 2001 12:31

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by John »

F-16 not being transferred have little to do with any scandal and everything to do with their high cost, high risk (east for Russia to strike them) and long time & investment required to train and support. Given that ACs from both sides are simply flying lo and lobbing rockets due to lack of proper SEAD not sure what F-16 can do to change that. Given a squadron will cost over 3 bill+ It’s not best bang for the $$.

It is same reason why larger US drones haven’t been transferred as well. Currently what Ukraine needs is apart from artillery and MRLs is SAM so they can extend the air defense coverage to all parts.
Y. Kanan
BRFite
Posts: 926
Joined: 27 Mar 2003 12:31
Location: USA

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Y. Kanan »

NRao wrote:A very similar scenario seems to be building WRT Taiwan/China. Instead of Harris, it is Pelosi. And, no matter what Pelosi says, China is likely to conclude that the US cannot be relied on and prepare for an invasion of Taiwan much earlier than preferred.

However, Yves Smith (Naked Capitalisms) observed that Taiwan is so reliant on China that China could cut off Taiwan - just as Russia is cutting off EU using energy - and achieve a knock out punch, and the US can do nothing. Interesting.
Yes, blockading Taiwan is China's only hope. It's the only strategy that might work. Invading is suicidal and doomed to failure. Air and missile strikes ultimately achieve nothing. Cutting Taiwan off from the world and keeping the US at bay until they all give up and accept reunification. It might work, if China can demonstrate that its "area denial" weapons aren't just vaporware.
JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7127
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by JE Menon »

Below copy/pasted from the Russians with Attitude Telegram channel. It is well worth a read, to get an idea of the "state of mind" of the mid-level Russian bureaucracy, and I believe, above as well.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
A dialogue between Ukrainian propagandist Dmitry Gordon and Adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine Alexey Arestovich

- Is the West tired of us?
- This is another narrative that people like to throw at us. No one is tired of anything. Reznikov [Minister of Defence in Ukraine since 2021] specifically told me to pass this on. I even asked him: Are you sure? He said: Lyosha, tell people about it. We shook hands all over Ramstein. And they said: please finish off this Vermin [Russia]. The Swedes added - "for Poltava", the French said - "for Borodino". [Russian victories over Sweden in XVIII and France in XIX]
- Were the Germans silent?
- The Germans were silent, but they winked at us, as it were. "You must finally destroy them, once and for all. Let's do it all together!" Of course, politicians won't say it out loud, but they do it in private settings. It's not just some people, but defense ministers and their colleagues.


Ukrainians are notorious for spreading misinformation. Well, every side does it but Ukrainians — and specifically Arestivich — don't seem to believe in the concept of "truth" at all. As Alyosha said himself recently, he filters out any information that can harm morale of "an average person without a coherent worldview and stable mind". That's why when AFU got obliterated in Peski, Ukrainian public was cheerful and claiming peremoga after peremoga. [ukrainian term for victory]

Yet this tale about European ministers dripping blood from their fangs and egging Ukrainians on to avenge their military defeats that happened centuries ago sounds very believable to me. It fits. Europeans are wolves in sheep's clothing, perfect predators. Every inch of European soil is soaked in blood. They invented and perfected various systems of genocide around the world. The world that they've managed to colonize. They never spared neighbours or their own schismatics either.

It's not that the rest of the world are peaceloving noble savages - far from it. But no other part of the world was ever capable of such a meticulously organized system of violence. An egregore that can bury the whole world. Although, i believe there's an important difference. Petty violence like raping a cat with a wooden stick is awful and despicable. Destroying Carthage is poetic. There's no true art without violence that can be terrible and beautiful at the same time.

United Europe under Hitler has ventured too far on this path and after 1945 core European countries got neutered, or they thoroughly pretended to neuter themselves. They are no longer allowed to do what they knew and loved for so long. Well, at least in the confines of the European Economic Community that later on morphed into EU. Post WWII European leaders and hereditary aristocracy now act like "ethical vampires" who abandoned the practice of feeding on people and now sip animal blood with non-plastic straws. The urge does not go away, though.

They started sublimating their natural genocidal impulses into weird bureaucratic procedures. Ruthlessly destroying all bent cucumbers that don't meet EU purity tests. Killing millions of healthy mink during the pandemic. You could see post-war Europeans itching for great war. They eagerly bombed Serbia, involved themselves in Iraq, Afganistan and African conflicts. But that was not enough. Ancestral memory told them to push Eastward - as they always did. EU started gaining ground and taking in frankly unnecessary, economically burdensome countries to the "european family". Now, just look at Ursula Von Der Leyen, an hereditary Eurocrat from a noble family. She looks splendid for her age. Her cheeks are rosy, she's glowing. Especially so when she talks about Ukrainians "willing to die for European Perspective". It's exhilarating and rejuvenating. Moreover, ageing Europeans don't even have to fight themselves anymore. It's a cruel blood sport that pits a vicious trained dog against the bull, as the gentlemen place bets.

But isn't Russia also European? Of course it is, but with a twist. Russians, Americans, Canadians, Boers, Australians, White South Americans are all "Frontier Europeans". We came out from the same source but the spirit of the Frontier has changed us. Europeans like to point out our supposed racial differences but it's mostly war propaganda for their fighting dogs. That's why genetically indistinguishable Ukrainians are going crazy with racialism, calling Russians "moksha" and foaming at mouth with a bizarre anti-finnougric sentiment. What unites Frontier Europeans is the common past of conquering vast native lands and the constant search for worlds beyond. It's not a coincidence that US and Russia are the only space superpowers to this day. We are "nouveau riche", have no manners and defy rules. We like driving big cars and venturing to the woods. We will never be present at European balls, their oldest societies and lodges. And above everyone else, Europeans hate us and wish for our destruction. Russia is the most accepted enemy that caused them a lot of grief in the past so they do it openly. In other cases it's much more, ahem, byzantine. So i totally believe Ukrainian propagandists on this one.
Cyrano
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5461
Joined: 28 Mar 2020 01:07

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Saw that, hard to distinguish sarcasm/humour from reality in that writeup.

Meanwhile Alex C has come up with a rather plausible reason for Ukra-een attacking Zaphoriziye Nuclear Plant with American supplied missiles. Quite an ingenious offramp face saver for the west I'd say. The only problem is, there is no compelling factor un Russia to agree.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Pelosi trip part of efforts to contain China
China Daily :: Andrey Denisov, Russian ambassador to China, strongly criticized US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, saying it's a serious violation of the one-China principle. Following is the full text of his interview with China Daily:
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Henry Kissinger Is Worried About ‘Disequilibrium’
We are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 18190
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

US says India hid Russian origin of fuel shipped to US
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 541967.cms
13 Aug 2022
Pratyush
BRF Oldie
Posts: 12187
Joined: 05 Mar 2010 15:13

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Rakesh wrote:US says India hid Russian origin of fuel shipped to US
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 541967.cms
13 Aug 2022
:rotfl:

So we have made money hand over first.

Nice.

What do the Yanks want. India stop shipping to the US?
kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6278
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by kit »

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

As Putin’s war spreads panic across Europe, Ukrainians must fear a stab in the back

Simon Tisdall
Locking up Putin is the only hope of a resolution. It’s a strategic aim the West should energetically pursue
The west’s strategic aims in Ukraine – to repulse Russia’s invasion, restore national sovereignty and score a victory for global democracy over “the forces of darkness” – were clearly set out by US president Joe Biden in Warsaw in March and subsequently endorsed by UK and European leaders.

What has always been less clear is whether they honestly expect to achieve these aims, given Nato’s less than heroic refusal to get directly involved. An uncomfortable, even distressing question now arises: should Ukrainians prepare for a stab in the back this winter?

Nearly six months into the war, the widening gap between rhetoric and reality grows potentially fatal. Public outrage over the invasion is giving way to concern, bordering on panic, about its alarming knock-on effects on energy and food prices and the cost of living.

That in turn is feeding doubts about western staying power. How long before Europe’s already shaky unity crumbles, if and when Russia’s gas tap is finally turned off?

Biden framed the war as part of a universal struggle between good and evil. “We stand with you,” he told Ukrainians. “Swift and punishing costs are the only things that are going to get Russia to change course.”

Much of his speech was familiar feelgood flannel. Unprecedented sanctions notwithstanding, Russia hasn’t changed course.

Channelling Biden that same month, Boris Johnson portentously pronounced that “Vladimir Putin’s act of aggression must fail and be seen to fail.” But Johnson was vague about the longer term, and overstated British leverage. “We cannot allow the Kremlin to bite off chunks of an independent country and inflict immense human suffering,” he declared. Yet that’s exactly what’s been happening ever since.

Liz Truss indulged in more delusional over-promising in April. Britain’s foreign secretary and possible next prime minister demanded Russia vacate Crimea and withdraw to pre-2014 borders. Sounding like a demented generalissimo, Truss vowed: “We are going to keep going further and faster to push Russia out of the whole of Ukraine.” Who is “we”? You and whose army?

This, of course, is the point. The US pledged another $1bn in military aid last week, taking its total under Biden to $9.8bn. The equivalent UK figure exceeds £2.3bn. EU countries have also greatly increased arms supplies. Without this help, Ukraine would have faced defeat.

But Biden’s cautious determination to avoid head-on confrontation at all costs means that while Russia may not ultimately win, it is unlikely to definitively lose. The war resembles a simmering saucepan that never quite comes to the boil.

It might have been very different, had western politicians found the courage to actively take Ukraine’s side in February-March. The chaotic initial Russian drive for Kyiv left large troop convoys vulnerable to air attack. A convincing display of Pentagon-style “shock and awe”, just as Putin was anticipating quick, easy victory, could have stopped the entire invasion in its tracks.

Might-have-been moments, viewed in hindsight, don’t win wars. But for the record, other early opportunities were squandered, including the idea of Nato-protected cities and safe havens for civilians inside Ukraine.

Prompt action by western navies could have foiled Russia’s reckless, still globally harmful Black Sea food blockade. Many innocent lives might have been spared.

It may be too late now, though Biden is not solely to blame. For all his bombastic, gung-ho talk, Johnson was content to hide behind Washington’s refusal to fight. So were France’s Emmanuel Macron and Germany’s Olaf Scholz.

Ukraine faces a brutal, years-long war of attrition – as does the west
Such unanimity reinforces suspicions that, in their hearts, they do not really believe that the west’s aim of humbling Russia is attainable or even desirable.

In the likely absence of a pathway to outright military victory, Kyiv’s available choices are all more or less repellent. Despite its expected southern offensive, its doughty defence of Donetsk and last week’s Crimea explosions, Ukraine faces a brutal, years-long war of attrition – as does the west.

Parallel pressure will consequently increase for a ceasefire or some kind of doubtless temporary peace deal, to relieve Europe’s economic pain. Rightwing populist parties in Italy and elsewhere are poised to take advantage. Leaderless Britain is focused on the home front.

In Germany, polling suggests up to 50% favour territorial concessions to Russia. The sharp divide between those seeking “justice” for Ukraine and those seeking “peace” is reflected across Europe – and is tilting against Kyiv.

Most troubling, ironically, is the last remaining war scenario – so-called “catastrophic success” for Ukraine’s forces that, confounding all predictions, presages regime-threatening defeat for Russia.

Advertisement
This possibility totally terrifies western politicians. In such a scenario, described by General Sir Richard Barrons, a desperate Putin resorts to low-yield tactical nuclear weapons to stave off collapse.

“This is not unthinkable – it is only unpalatable,” Barrons, a former British commander, chillingly warned.

How to respond? Might such a taboo-breaking atrocity result in Ukraine joining Nato and all-out war with Russia proper? In some respects, the west, through its timidity and half-measures, would have brought such a cataclysm on itself. Barrons has no ready answers. No one does.

Except, except… perhaps an exasperated, emotional Biden unintentionally hit on the best idea when he concluded his Warsaw speech with an ad lib about Putin, addressed to Russians as much as anyone else. “For God’s sake, this man cannot remain in power,” he growled.

Biden’s right. Putin is a foul ogre, a war criminal, a monstrous throwback from a bygone age. As previously argued here, he is unfit to rule.

With him gone, the crisis he single-handedly engineered would not disappear – but would be more easily resolved. In fact, this may be Ukrainians’ (and Russians’) only hope of a happy ending.

Get Putin. Take him down. Lock him up. That’s a strategic aim all could and should energetically pursue.
pravula
BRFite
Posts: 360
Joined: 07 Aug 2009 05:01

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by pravula »

https://www.newsweek.com/latvia-russian ... in-1733712

Latvia wants to ban Russian language. Apparently 25% of the population is Russian speaking…
NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19224
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

Germans to pay energy tax on gas consumption.

No replacement for Russian gas. Yet.

Canada seems to be ready to supply hydrogen!!! As an alternative?

Winter is going to be challenging.
Post Reply