Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

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Lisa
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Lisa »

drnayar wrote:https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4886681


]Taiwan Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) on Monday (May 8) said that the armed forces would not tolerate the destruction of any Taiwanese facility, in response to a suggestion by U.S. Congressman Seth Moulton that the U.S. should warn China that it would "blow up" Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) if it attacked Taiwan.
Drnayarji

We are way past this by now. When you have time please read the below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gladio

P.S. The creation of "cassettes" to help deploy explosives under German bridges to assist with their destruction in case of war against the Warsaw Pact was a legal requirement.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

France ‘not getting the credit it should’ for Ukraine support
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/2023 ... ne-support
However, support for Ukraine is not just a matter of arms deliveries. “In other ways France is also delivering within NATO and the EU,” noted Paul Smith, a professor of French politics at Nottingham University.

Indeed, when it comes to the total amount of aid – including financial backing and humanitarian assistance as well as weapons donations, much of which is transferred via the EU – France is in fourth place, behind the US, Germany and the UK.

“France has ended up in an odd place, not getting as much credit as it should for the significant support it is providing,” Whitman noted.

In large part, he said, this is a product of France’s distinct focus on the war’s endgame: “France would like to be one of the first order states in bringing about a diplomatic settlement to end the war, at the same time as being obviously on Ukraine’s side in the war. And Macron is trying to square that circle, while sometimes speaking in a way that doesn’t assist France’s diplomatic profile.”

But while Paris’s position has sometimes been lost in translation, many in Ukraine anticipate that France will intensify its arms deliveries, Aliyev said.

“The Ukrainian attitude towards France has fluctuated; to start with, it was quite restrained because of what Ukraine saw as reluctant to send arms, but now there is a more positive attitude towards France and Macron,” he said. “But this is also a state of expectation that France is ready to take the next step and provide more support.”
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/wor ... 313018.cms

several russian scientists arrested on charges of selling details of cruise missiles
Tanaji
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine ... ief-2023-5

Ukraine wants a 60 mile buffer zone inside Russia. Entitledness is off the scale of these guys.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Lisa »

^Really, poor things, if only there was a treaty to do this,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on ... _in_Europe

That the west elected to ignore!
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

The United States is preparing for the fact that the conflict in Ukraine may be frozen, it may last for many years or even decades —
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/1 ... a-00097563

tone & sentiments indicate US wants to decrease support but ensure Ukr is not erased
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Ukraine is caught in its own trap of extremely hostile anti Russia rhetoric and self victimisation. NATO is caught in its own trap of overboard moralisation and grand standing. US is trapped in its own hubris of fomenting and pushing Russia into a corner until Russia felt compelled to start the SMO. Russia caught in its own erroneous thinking of shared slavic identity (parallels to the idea of shared indianness some indians hold wrt to Pakis).

By virtue of the war happening on their own lands with their own soldiers, Ukraine and Russia can't back off until one of them concedes defeat.

Russia will not like a frozen conflict coz they saw how the west armed and egged Ukraine behind Minsk accords, won't repeat the same mistake.

Increasingly western people will emotionally disengage from Ukraine despite relentless media spin and today's leaders will face elections. Idem in Russia but Putin has not much to worry to stay in power. The whole anti-Russia feelings stirred up by the west only prove his point of being the defender of the patrie in front of his people.

Looks like middle overs of a cricket game, both sides have surprised the other so far, but neither is in a winning position and looking for a breakthrough.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Rakesh »

https://twitter.com/mklare1/status/1659 ... 64938?s=20 ---> As I see it, the G-3 -- China, India, and the US -- will share global governance roles in the post-Ukraine war era. See my Goodbye to the American Century.

Michael Klare, The G-3 and the Post-Ukraine World
https://tomdispatch.com/goodbye-to-the- ... n-century/
18 May 2023
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Saudi Arabia refuses to change stance on Ukraine conflict thttps://www.rt.com/news/576608-saudi-neutrality ... -conflict/
The kingdom has said it will maintain a policy of “positive neutrality” towards the Ukraine conflict

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has said that Riyadh and other Arab states are taking an impartial stance in the Ukraine-Russia conflict and want to maintain ties with both parties. He made the statement after the conclusion of the Arab League summit in Jeddah on Friday, which was attended by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.

“Since the beginning of the crisis, the Arab countries have taken a position of positive neutrality, opening dialogue with the Russian and Ukrainian parties, while ensuring Arab relations with the two sides,” the diplomat said, adding, “we welcome hearing the viewpoints of both sides of [the] Russia-Ukrainian conflict.”

The Ukrainian leader insisted, without singling anyone out, that some Arab nations have been turning a blind eye to Moscow’s “illegal annexations.”

Saudi Arabia has declined to take part in the Western sanctions on Moscow, which include efforts to curtail its energy exports. Riyadh’s continued cooperation with Russia through OPEC+, a cartel of oil exporters, has drawn criticism from the US.

Riyadh has expressed hope that it could broker a resolution to the conflict, pledging to maintain trade and diplomatic ties with both Russia and Ukraine.

After meeting with Zelensky earlier on Friday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke about “the kingdom’s readiness to continue mediating efforts between Russia and Ukraine.” He said he would “support all international efforts aimed at resolving the crisis politically in a way that contributes to achieving security.”

The Saudi foreign minister visited Kiev and Moscow for high-level talks in 2022, and later said that bin Salman was involved in negotiating a prisoner swap between the two sides last September, which he hailed as a “humanitarian breakthrough.”
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

https://www.wionews.com/videos/de-dolla ... lar-593824
WION Video Team | Updated: May 18, 2023, 10:40 PM IST
The countries have decided to use native currencies in order to trade.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

Lloyds Register drops ships of Indian carrier Gatik as it carries Russian crude

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business- ... ussian-oil

I wonder what impact this has.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanman »

Pratyush
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Tanaji wrote:Lloyds Register drops ships of Indian carrier Gatik as it carries Russian crude

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business- ... ussian-oil

I wonder what impact this has.
This is an opportunity for Indian shipping register and GIC Re to step up.

For far too long the western gatekeepers have had a strangle hold on international system.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Manish_P »

Tanaji wrote:Lloyds Register drops ships of Indian carrier Gatik as it carries Russian crude

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business- ... ussian-oil

I wonder what impact this has.
Insurance issues for one.

India will probably recover a bit of the hit by raising the prices charged to the Europeans
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

Lindsey Graham is a senior Republican. I thought they spoke like this only in movies:

https://twitter.com/upholdreality/statu ... oldreality
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

There is a video of Lindsay Graham in 2016-17 in which he has visited Easter Ukraine and is praising the Ukrainians who are killing Ethnic Russian's.

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanman »

Pratyush wrote:There is a video of Lindsay Graham in 2016-17 in which he has visited Easter Ukraine and is praising the Ukrainians who are killing Ethnic Russian's.
Yes, uniparty establishment Republicans like Lindsay Graham love to praise Trump, while doing everything they can to undermine his agenda.

The late John McCain was an open warmonger, who always openly leaned towards every kind of confrontation and conflict. At least he eventually made his peace with Vietnam (so that he could re-position for conflict against China)

These guys are fueled by the military/war lobby, and are always the go-to's for that lobby.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by IndraD »

Sad Reality: The Ukraine War Is Now Going Russia’s Way
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/05/sad ... ssias-way/
Ukraine has lost literally tens of thousands of killed and wounded, along with enormous quantities of equipment and ammunition, in those four city fights. Based on a likely fire superiority of 10-to-1 on the Russian side, Ukraine no doubt suffered considerably more casualties in those fights than the Russians. But even if the cost were equal, Russia has millions more men from whom to draw more fighters and a major domestic industrial capacity to produce all the ammunition they may require.

Put simply, Ukraine doesn’t have the personnel or industrial capacity to replace their lost men and equipment in comparison to the Russians. Moreover, Russia has been learning from its many tactical mistakes and evidence suggests they are improving tactically while simultaneously expanding their industrial capacity. Even bigger than the dearth of ammunition and equipment for Ukraine, however, is the number of trained and experienced personnel they’ve lost. Many of those skilled troops and leaders simply cannot be replaced in the span of mere months.

Ukraine is now faced with a world-class dilemma: should they use their last offensive capacity in a last gasp of hoping they inflict a grave wound on the Russians defending in the occupied territories or preserve them in case Russia launches a summer offensive of their own? There are serious risks with either course of action. I assess there is currently no likely path for Ukraine to achieve a military victory. Continuing to fight in that hope may perversely result in them losing even more territory.

Supporting Ukraine
The United States must take these realities into consideration in the coming weeks and months. Washington has already provided Ukraine the lion’s share of all military and financial aide including many of our most sophisticated armor, artillery, rockets, and missiles. Biden has even authorized the release of F-16 jets. The United States cannot – nor should it – commit to sending an equal amount of support for the next year of war, should it continue that long. Europe must be willing to make greater contributions to any future deliveries to Ukraine.

Only Kyiv can decide whether to keep fighting or seek the best-negotiated deal it can get. But the United States is obligated to ensure the security of our country and people above the desires of Kyiv.

In addition to burden-shifting physical support primarily to European states, means the U.S. must avoid the trap of agreeing to any type of security guarantee for Ukraine. History is too filled with examples of hasty agreements to end fighting that unwittingly lay the foundation for future conflicts. America must not put its own future safety at risk by agreeing to any form of security guarantee.

The trend of war is shifting toward Moscow, regardless of how upset that may make many in the West. It is the observable reality. What Washington must do is avoid the temptation to “double-down” on supporting a losing proposition and do whatever we need to bring this conflict to a rapid conclusion, preserving our future security to the maximum extent. Ignoring these realities could set up Ukraine for even greater losses – and could put our own security at unacceptable future risk.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by YashG »

^^^
The author is a regular in terms of supporting russian POV. This article doesn't reflect a new reality on ground (as far as predominant western POV is considered) . I'd want to hear something like this from someone who was not supporting russian POV before and has unearthed a new understanding of affairs.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

YashG wrote:^^^
The author is a regular in terms of supporting russian POV. This article doesn't reflect a new reality on ground (as far as predominant western POV is considered) . I'd want to hear something like this from someone who was not supporting russian POV before and has unearthed a new understanding of affairs.
As the American Mi Ind complex enriches itself , there would be no "appetite" to stop the war.. continue war [till the last ukranian] .. any war anywhere seems to be rule rather than the exception. , it doesn't matter if the Russians win..till then the game goes on .. and move to the next.. there is no end to that greedy monster.

My guess is the war goes on till the Russians win decisively / take Kiev.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by VKumar »

USA will fight Russia till the last Ukranian
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by madhu »

Belarus President Poisoned? Lukashenko Rushed to Hospital, in Critical Condition After Meeting Putin
Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko has been rushed to a hospital in Moscow and is said to be in critical condition after meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin, a Belarusian opposition leader has claimed.

Lukashenko’s opponent Valery Tsepkalo, the former candidate for Belarus Presidential Election and former ambassador to the US, said the President was rushed to the hospital following closed doors meeting with Putin.

However, he said that the information his team obtained required further information and that it had not been confirmed.
so who poisoned?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Nihat »

VKumar wrote:USA will fight Russia till the last Ukranian
It's all win win for uncle Sam. The mil-ind complex is booming, a stuttering Nato has now expanded and united than it was previously and it may have ensured a permanently hostile Ukraine right at Russian border.

What's there to lose apart from a few Ukrainian lives and USA is the last country in the world to give a damn. It will keep Russia engaged in this pointless war for the next decade.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

^^^

There is a distinct possibility that the Eurasian economic region can coalesce into a revived political entity. With Russia as a leader within the next 5 to 7 years.

The settlement of Nagorno Karabakh conflict and the pacification of the attempted coup in Kazakhstan in January 2022 by Russia led forces had made is clear to the FSU republic. That they need someone to act as a sort of guarantor.

Today Russia is that force.

The settlement of Ukraine conflict is immaterial to the future of the union.

Ultimately, unfortunately for Ukraine. It's ultimate fate is immaterial to both sides of the Ukrainian conflict.

If the CARs don't fall in line. They know that PRC will economically dominate them. Russia is known entity for them. PRC is not.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanman »



How long has this NATO exercise in Finland been in the works? Or was it only prompted by the recent fall of Bakhmut?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

https://worldview.stratfor.com/situatio ... -lieu-nato

NATO leaders are preparing a plan based on U.S. and other countries' agreements with Israel that is intended to help guarantee Ukrainian security, and they expect to sign an agreement on the matter following a July NATO summit
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanman »

I couldn't read that story, so here's a different article on the same:

https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/ta ... -wsj-38615

I don't see how this can work. US will provide unlimited aid and military hardware to Ukraine? And Ukraine will become regional superpower that eclipses Russia?

Polish PM sounds like he's just blowing hot air.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanman »







Balkans can easily sidetrack, if not roll back, NATO expansion
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by drnayar »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us- ... m=referral

Thr great chief has fallen ..literally this time

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanman »

Weapons sent to Ukraine showing up with Mexican drug cartels -- and where else?? :-?


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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

Cyranoji, who are these guys whose interview you have posted?
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by NRao »

SITREP 6/3/23: West Stymied by Strong Russian Economic Showing

Russia is spending surprisingly little on its war on Ukraine
* Russia's invasion of Ukraine has cost Moscow a small amount by historical standards, per the Economist.
* Russia's spending remains opaque, but its war budget is about 3% of GDP.
* By comparison, the Soviet Union spent 61% of GDP in World War II.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Pratyush »

Where are these figures coming from?

The west was claiming that, Russians were bankrupting themselves attempting to capture Ukraine.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by sanman »

Tanaji wrote:Cyranoji, who are these guys whose interview you have posted?
Alexander Christoforou & Alexander Mercouris are just observers and commentators on international events, mainly in Europe, and mostly related to the Russia-Ukraine war. They each host their own individual channels, but they also jointly together host a channel called The Duran. Again, all of these channels all deal with roughly the same topics.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Cyrano »

Thanks sanman ji.
By and large these two guys they offer a fairly balanced viewpoint on western and broader geopolitical happenings. They do their homework, tap into various sources and many people with relevant backgrounds write to them which they add into their analysis giving credit where its due. They have some good guests as well, who don't tow the MSM lines. They have really excelled in reporting and commenting on the Ukraine conflict. They could be more knowledgeable about India but at least they have made a start. IIRC JEM posted some time ago that he had met Alexander and they had a good discussion.
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

Ah thanks Sanmanji and Cyranoji
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Lisa »

‘Plan B’ needed on Russia sanctions, says top Lloyd’s marine insurance figure

https://t.co/rdjbP4XHMZ

Warning about consequences for shipping market echoes wider concerns about growing ‘shadow fleet’
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Re: Russian-Ukranian War: Geopolitical Fallout

Post by Tanaji »

In other words Lloyds is concerned that it’s hegemony as the maritime insurer is under threat…
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